#spatiotemporal โ Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #spatiotemporal, aggregated by home.social.
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Unraveling The Drivers Of Water Shortage Across Spatial Scales And Sectors In Colorado's West Slope River Basins
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008137 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @sai Veena Sunkara | Postdoctoral Associate
โโฆColoradoโs West Slope basins provide nearly 70% of the inflows to Lake Powell and are also essential to communities, agriculture, industry, hydropower, and downstream Colorado River users.
To examine the wide range of possible futures, [they] simulated 2.1 million years, defining 20,000 plausible scenarios applying changes to streamflow, snowmelt timing, drought persistence, and agricultural, municipal, and industrial water demand.
A key finding is that there is ๐ป๐ผ ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐น๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ณ๐๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ๐. The most influential drivers vary by basin, sector, and water user. In some areas, shortages are driven primarily by persistent low-flow conditions or changing snowmelt timing. In others, increasing municipal, industrial, or irrigation demand plays a larger role. This suggests that adaptation strategies must be tailored to specific basins and users rather than relying on a single, system-wide solution. Other major findings are
โข West Slope deliveries to Lake Powell could fall more than 50% below the current median baseline
โข Storage in major West Slope reservoirs could decline 40โ55% below historical medians
These results underscore the need for water-planning approaches that account for deep uncertainty, persistent drought, shifting snowmelt patterns, and sector-specific demandโฆโ
#Colorado #waterallocation #StateMod #USWest #USA #WesternSlope #waterresources #watersecurity #watershortage #drought #snowmelt #rainfall #precipitation #riverbasin #water #hydrography #hydrology #reasons #agriculture #industry #hydropower #streamflow #surfacewater #municipal #irrigation #adaptationstrategies #planning #policy #mitigation #ColoradoRiver #basins #climatechange #extremeweather #populationpressure #waterdemand #waterrights #model #modeling #HiddenMarkovModel #stochastic #projecteddemand #ColoradoRiverBasin #wateruse #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #strategy -
Unraveling The Drivers Of Water Shortage Across Spatial Scales And Sectors In Colorado's West Slope River Basins
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008137 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @sai Veena Sunkara | Postdoctoral Associate
โโฆColoradoโs West Slope basins provide nearly 70% of the inflows to Lake Powell and are also essential to communities, agriculture, industry, hydropower, and downstream Colorado River users.
To examine the wide range of possible futures, [they] simulated 2.1 million years, defining 20,000 plausible scenarios applying changes to streamflow, snowmelt timing, drought persistence, and agricultural, municipal, and industrial water demand.
A key finding is that there is ๐ป๐ผ ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐น๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ณ๐๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ๐. The most influential drivers vary by basin, sector, and water user. In some areas, shortages are driven primarily by persistent low-flow conditions or changing snowmelt timing. In others, increasing municipal, industrial, or irrigation demand plays a larger role. This suggests that adaptation strategies must be tailored to specific basins and users rather than relying on a single, system-wide solution. Other major findings are
โข West Slope deliveries to Lake Powell could fall more than 50% below the current median baseline
โข Storage in major West Slope reservoirs could decline 40โ55% below historical medians
These results underscore the need for water-planning approaches that account for deep uncertainty, persistent drought, shifting snowmelt patterns, and sector-specific demandโฆโ
#Colorado #waterallocation #StateMod #USWest #USA #WesternSlope #waterresources #watersecurity #watershortage #drought #snowmelt #rainfall #precipitation #riverbasin #water #hydrography #hydrology #reasons #agriculture #industry #hydropower #streamflow #surfacewater #municipal #irrigation #adaptationstrategies #planning #policy #mitigation #ColoradoRiver #basins #climatechange #extremeweather #populationpressure #waterdemand #waterrights #model #modeling #HiddenMarkovModel #stochastic #projecteddemand #ColoradoRiverBasin #wateruse #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #strategy -
Unraveling The Drivers Of Water Shortage Across Spatial Scales And Sectors In Colorado's West Slope River Basins
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008137 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @sai Veena Sunkara | Postdoctoral Associate
โโฆColoradoโs West Slope basins provide nearly 70% of the inflows to Lake Powell and are also essential to communities, agriculture, industry, hydropower, and downstream Colorado River users.
To examine the wide range of possible futures, [they] simulated 2.1 million years, defining 20,000 plausible scenarios applying changes to streamflow, snowmelt timing, drought persistence, and agricultural, municipal, and industrial water demand.
A key finding is that there is ๐ป๐ผ ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐น๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ณ๐๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ๐. The most influential drivers vary by basin, sector, and water user. In some areas, shortages are driven primarily by persistent low-flow conditions or changing snowmelt timing. In others, increasing municipal, industrial, or irrigation demand plays a larger role. This suggests that adaptation strategies must be tailored to specific basins and users rather than relying on a single, system-wide solution. Other major findings are
โข West Slope deliveries to Lake Powell could fall more than 50% below the current median baseline
โข Storage in major West Slope reservoirs could decline 40โ55% below historical medians
These results underscore the need for water-planning approaches that account for deep uncertainty, persistent drought, shifting snowmelt patterns, and sector-specific demandโฆโ
#Colorado #waterallocation #StateMod #USWest #USA #WesternSlope #waterresources #watersecurity #watershortage #drought #snowmelt #rainfall #precipitation #riverbasin #water #hydrography #hydrology #reasons #agriculture #industry #hydropower #streamflow #surfacewater #municipal #irrigation #adaptationstrategies #planning #policy #mitigation #ColoradoRiver #basins #climatechange #extremeweather #populationpressure #waterdemand #waterrights #model #modeling #HiddenMarkovModel #stochastic #projecteddemand #ColoradoRiverBasin #wateruse #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #strategy -
Coupled Hydrological And Public Health Risks From Urban Flooding - Integrated Remote Sensing, Machine Learning, And HydrodynamicโEcological Modelling
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135999 <-- shared paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wroa.2025.100396 <-- share (earlier) paper
--
H/T @RAHUL DEOPA | Research Scholar (IIT Roorkee)
โโฆ [U]rban floods are not merely hydraulic events; they also transport sewage, pathogens, and other contaminants across streets and communities, leading to significant public health risksโฆ
How do we quantify microbial contamination in near real time during a flood event, when emergency conditions make field sampling unsafe, sparse, or even impossible?...
[The authors] explored whether Earth observation data, combined with machine learning, could bridge this critical monitoring gap. By combining Landsat-derived water surface temperature, machine learning, a coupled MIKE+ FloodโECO Lab hydrodynamicโecological model, and Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA), [they] estimated microbial concentrations (๐. ๐ค๐ฐ๐ญ๐ช), simulated their fate and transport during floods, and quantified the associated human health risks.
The takeaway: predicting flood risk isn't just about where the water goes; it's about what it's carrying and who it puts in harm's way. Earth observation and machine learning can help close that gap when it matters most, during the emergency, not weeks afterโฆโ
#publichealth #risk #hazard #watersecurity #Floodrisk #Humanhealthrisk #Urbanflooding #Hydrodynamicmodelling #waterquality #model #modeling #SupportVectorRegression #flood #flooding #urban #city #sewage #pathogens #contaminant #disease #streets #community #quantification #remotesensing #GIS #spatial #mapping #earthobservation #spatialanalysis #water #hydrology #climatechange #extremeweather #spatiotemporal #AI #machineleraning #fateandtransport #hydrodynamic #microbial #rainfall #drainage #streamflow #topography #hydrogeomorphology #Delhi #India #floodplain -
Coupled Hydrological And Public Health Risks From Urban Flooding - Integrated Remote Sensing, Machine Learning, And HydrodynamicโEcological Modelling
--
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135999 <-- shared paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wroa.2025.100396 <-- share (earlier) paper
--
H/T @RAHUL DEOPA | Research Scholar (IIT Roorkee)
โโฆ [U]rban floods are not merely hydraulic events; they also transport sewage, pathogens, and other contaminants across streets and communities, leading to significant public health risksโฆ
How do we quantify microbial contamination in near real time during a flood event, when emergency conditions make field sampling unsafe, sparse, or even impossible?...
[The authors] explored whether Earth observation data, combined with machine learning, could bridge this critical monitoring gap. By combining Landsat-derived water surface temperature, machine learning, a coupled MIKE+ FloodโECO Lab hydrodynamicโecological model, and Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA), [they] estimated microbial concentrations (๐. ๐ค๐ฐ๐ญ๐ช), simulated their fate and transport during floods, and quantified the associated human health risks.
The takeaway: predicting flood risk isn't just about where the water goes; it's about what it's carrying and who it puts in harm's way. Earth observation and machine learning can help close that gap when it matters most, during the emergency, not weeks afterโฆโ
#publichealth #risk #hazard #watersecurity #Floodrisk #Humanhealthrisk #Urbanflooding #Hydrodynamicmodelling #waterquality #model #modeling #SupportVectorRegression #flood #flooding #urban #city #sewage #pathogens #contaminant #disease #streets #community #quantification #remotesensing #GIS #spatial #mapping #earthobservation #spatialanalysis #water #hydrology #climatechange #extremeweather #spatiotemporal #AI #machineleraning #fateandtransport #hydrodynamic #microbial #rainfall #drainage #streamflow #topography #hydrogeomorphology #Delhi #India #floodplain -
Coupled Hydrological And Public Health Risks From Urban Flooding - Integrated Remote Sensing, Machine Learning, And HydrodynamicโEcological Modelling
--
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135999 <-- shared paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wroa.2025.100396 <-- share (earlier) paper
--
H/T @RAHUL DEOPA | Research Scholar (IIT Roorkee)
โโฆ [U]rban floods are not merely hydraulic events; they also transport sewage, pathogens, and other contaminants across streets and communities, leading to significant public health risksโฆ
How do we quantify microbial contamination in near real time during a flood event, when emergency conditions make field sampling unsafe, sparse, or even impossible?...
[The authors] explored whether Earth observation data, combined with machine learning, could bridge this critical monitoring gap. By combining Landsat-derived water surface temperature, machine learning, a coupled MIKE+ FloodโECO Lab hydrodynamicโecological model, and Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA), [they] estimated microbial concentrations (๐. ๐ค๐ฐ๐ญ๐ช), simulated their fate and transport during floods, and quantified the associated human health risks.
The takeaway: predicting flood risk isn't just about where the water goes; it's about what it's carrying and who it puts in harm's way. Earth observation and machine learning can help close that gap when it matters most, during the emergency, not weeks afterโฆโ
#publichealth #risk #hazard #watersecurity #Floodrisk #Humanhealthrisk #Urbanflooding #Hydrodynamicmodelling #waterquality #model #modeling #SupportVectorRegression #flood #flooding #urban #city #sewage #pathogens #contaminant #disease #streets #community #quantification #remotesensing #GIS #spatial #mapping #earthobservation #spatialanalysis #water #hydrology #climatechange #extremeweather #spatiotemporal #AI #machineleraning #fateandtransport #hydrodynamic #microbial #rainfall #drainage #streamflow #topography #hydrogeomorphology #Delhi #India #floodplain -
Busy Beavers - The Turbidity Signature Of Ecosystem Engineers At Work
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https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.70661 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @alan Puttock
โBeavers are the quintessential ecosystem engineers. In slow-flowing streams, they create complex wetlands with ponds by building dams and canals that can positively impact biodiversity, hydrology and water quality. These activities can interchangeably capture or release sediment along the watercourse. To date this has not been quantified at the resolution of rainfall events or beaver activity. This study used 15-min frequency, sustained monitoring upstream and downstream of a newly establishing beaver wetland to measure episodic changes in water turbidity at an event resolution. Monitoring showed no significant differences between upstream and downstream turbidity over 160โdays when the first pair of beavers, known not to be building dams or canals, were resident. Shortly after introduction of another beaver pair, however, dam building, burrows and canal excavations were quickly observed, resulting in the creation of a complex beaver wetland between 2021 and 2024. Monitoring over 375โdays during this period showed significant differences. Downstream turbidity was significantly higher overall than upstream: 13.1 Nephelometric Turbidity Units (NTU) compared to 4.2 NTU. Stochastic spikes in downstream turbidity during the study period not recorded upstream were associated with dam building and burrowing. Overall, there was no significant difference in turbidity loads, which was at least partially explained by a reduction in discharge downstream, particularly in higher flows, during the dam building period. This demonstrates a complex system with the trapping of influent sediment, the storing of water and the periodic release of beaver wetland sediment leading to net balance in loads. These results help provide context for other studies which have used temporally discrete sampling campaigns rather than continuous high-frequency monitoring. They provide a unique insight into the downstream impacts of a rapidly developing beaver wetland over its first three and a half years in a landscape that hasn't had beavers for over 400โyearsโฆ"
#hydromorphic #water #hydrology #dam #beaverdam #waterquality #biodiversity #ecology #benefits #NatureBasedSolutions #Wetlands #Ecology #Biodiversity #EnvironmentalScience #Wildlife #Ecosystem #bioviversity #conservation #restoration #landscaperecovery #floodmanagement #FloodMitigation #flooding #energy #floodrisk #sustainability #wetlands #hydrography #dams #impoundment #deadwood #waterresources #landscapeengineer #benefits #vegetation #ecology #ecosystem #riversystemsstabilisation #naturalwaterregulation #resilience #valleysreborn #fisheries #invertebrates #extremeweather #floodflows #sediment #baseflow #drought #landmanagement #naturalsystems #landuse #monitoring #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal -
Busy Beavers - The Turbidity Signature Of Ecosystem Engineers At Work
--
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.70661 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @alan Puttock
โBeavers are the quintessential ecosystem engineers. In slow-flowing streams, they create complex wetlands with ponds by building dams and canals that can positively impact biodiversity, hydrology and water quality. These activities can interchangeably capture or release sediment along the watercourse. To date this has not been quantified at the resolution of rainfall events or beaver activity. This study used 15-min frequency, sustained monitoring upstream and downstream of a newly establishing beaver wetland to measure episodic changes in water turbidity at an event resolution. Monitoring showed no significant differences between upstream and downstream turbidity over 160โdays when the first pair of beavers, known not to be building dams or canals, were resident. Shortly after introduction of another beaver pair, however, dam building, burrows and canal excavations were quickly observed, resulting in the creation of a complex beaver wetland between 2021 and 2024. Monitoring over 375โdays during this period showed significant differences. Downstream turbidity was significantly higher overall than upstream: 13.1 Nephelometric Turbidity Units (NTU) compared to 4.2 NTU. Stochastic spikes in downstream turbidity during the study period not recorded upstream were associated with dam building and burrowing. Overall, there was no significant difference in turbidity loads, which was at least partially explained by a reduction in discharge downstream, particularly in higher flows, during the dam building period. This demonstrates a complex system with the trapping of influent sediment, the storing of water and the periodic release of beaver wetland sediment leading to net balance in loads. These results help provide context for other studies which have used temporally discrete sampling campaigns rather than continuous high-frequency monitoring. They provide a unique insight into the downstream impacts of a rapidly developing beaver wetland over its first three and a half years in a landscape that hasn't had beavers for over 400โyearsโฆ"
#hydromorphic #water #hydrology #dam #beaverdam #waterquality #biodiversity #ecology #benefits #NatureBasedSolutions #Wetlands #Ecology #Biodiversity #EnvironmentalScience #Wildlife #Ecosystem #bioviversity #conservation #restoration #landscaperecovery #floodmanagement #FloodMitigation #flooding #energy #floodrisk #sustainability #wetlands #hydrography #dams #impoundment #deadwood #waterresources #landscapeengineer #benefits #vegetation #ecology #ecosystem #riversystemsstabilisation #naturalwaterregulation #resilience #valleysreborn #fisheries #invertebrates #extremeweather #floodflows #sediment #baseflow #drought #landmanagement #naturalsystems #landuse #monitoring #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal -
Busy Beavers - The Turbidity Signature Of Ecosystem Engineers At Work
--
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.70661 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @alan Puttock
โBeavers are the quintessential ecosystem engineers. In slow-flowing streams, they create complex wetlands with ponds by building dams and canals that can positively impact biodiversity, hydrology and water quality. These activities can interchangeably capture or release sediment along the watercourse. To date this has not been quantified at the resolution of rainfall events or beaver activity. This study used 15-min frequency, sustained monitoring upstream and downstream of a newly establishing beaver wetland to measure episodic changes in water turbidity at an event resolution. Monitoring showed no significant differences between upstream and downstream turbidity over 160โdays when the first pair of beavers, known not to be building dams or canals, were resident. Shortly after introduction of another beaver pair, however, dam building, burrows and canal excavations were quickly observed, resulting in the creation of a complex beaver wetland between 2021 and 2024. Monitoring over 375โdays during this period showed significant differences. Downstream turbidity was significantly higher overall than upstream: 13.1 Nephelometric Turbidity Units (NTU) compared to 4.2 NTU. Stochastic spikes in downstream turbidity during the study period not recorded upstream were associated with dam building and burrowing. Overall, there was no significant difference in turbidity loads, which was at least partially explained by a reduction in discharge downstream, particularly in higher flows, during the dam building period. This demonstrates a complex system with the trapping of influent sediment, the storing of water and the periodic release of beaver wetland sediment leading to net balance in loads. These results help provide context for other studies which have used temporally discrete sampling campaigns rather than continuous high-frequency monitoring. They provide a unique insight into the downstream impacts of a rapidly developing beaver wetland over its first three and a half years in a landscape that hasn't had beavers for over 400โyearsโฆ"
#hydromorphic #water #hydrology #dam #beaverdam #waterquality #biodiversity #ecology #benefits #NatureBasedSolutions #Wetlands #Ecology #Biodiversity #EnvironmentalScience #Wildlife #Ecosystem #bioviversity #conservation #restoration #landscaperecovery #floodmanagement #FloodMitigation #flooding #energy #floodrisk #sustainability #wetlands #hydrography #dams #impoundment #deadwood #waterresources #landscapeengineer #benefits #vegetation #ecology #ecosystem #riversystemsstabilisation #naturalwaterregulation #resilience #valleysreborn #fisheries #invertebrates #extremeweather #floodflows #sediment #baseflow #drought #landmanagement #naturalsystems #landuse #monitoring #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal -
Quantifying UK Coastal Flood Exposure Under Future Sea-Level Rise To [2100 and] 2300
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-74982-1 <-- shared paper
--
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jul/21/millions-long-term-coastal-flooding-risk-uk-climate-action <-- shared media article
--
H/T @University of Bristol School of Geographical Sciences
โ๐ New research on long-term coastal flooding as a result of climate inaction ๐
โฆ The researchers found:
๐ท By 2100 at least an additional 0.5 million people exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood extent - a 25% increase compared to present day.
๐ท Under the most pessimistic storyline by 2300 involving significant ice-sheet instability, an additional 13 million people could be exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood event.
๐ท Under some scenarios there is a need for large-scale movement of populations and settlements away from the coast in the coming centuriesโฆโ
--
โUp to 13 million people in the UK face the long-term risk of coastal flooding due to the climate crisis, scientists have warned, with a โreasonable worst-case scenarioโ suggesting the need for the large-scale movement of populations away from a dramatically reshaped coastโฆ
Sea level has risen by about 20cm around the UK in the last century and is accelerating. A further 40cm to 60cm by 2100 is already baked in, meaning about half a million more people will be at risk of their homes being flooded, on top of the 2.5 million already in danger near the coasts. Lincolnshire and the Humber estuary are most in dangerโฆโ
--
โThe latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report highlighted the potential for more than 15โmetres of global sea-level rise by 2300. In this study, [the authors] explore the implications for UK coastal flood exposure by combining national-scale flood modelling with physically-based storylines of UK sea-level rise. By 2100 all storylines show broadly similar results with at least an additional ยฝ million people exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood extent, which represents a 25% increase compared to present day. Under the most pessimistic storyline by 2300 involving significant ice-sheet instability, an additional 13 million people could be exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood event. This would imply the potential need for large-scale movement of populations and settlements away from the coast in the coming centuries. Given current global emissions pledges, exposure increases by 1.7 million people by 2300, however up to 1 million could be avoided if Paris Agreement targets for greenhouse gas emissions are metโฆโ
#coast #coastal #innundation #climatechange #global #sealevel #sealevelrise #SLR #flood #flooding #climatechange #population #infrastructure #UK #England #Scotland #Wales #NorthernIreland #Lincolnshire #Humber #estuary #settlement #city #urban #mitigation #planning #policy #infrastructure #risk #hazard #humanimpacts #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #GIS #spatial #mapping #coastalflooding #climatecrisis #model #modeling #elevation #DEM -
Quantifying UK Coastal Flood Exposure Under Future Sea-Level Rise To [2100 and] 2300
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-74982-1 <-- shared paper
--
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jul/21/millions-long-term-coastal-flooding-risk-uk-climate-action <-- shared media article
--
H/T @University of Bristol School of Geographical Sciences
โ๐ New research on long-term coastal flooding as a result of climate inaction ๐
โฆ The researchers found:
๐ท By 2100 at least an additional 0.5 million people exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood extent - a 25% increase compared to present day.
๐ท Under the most pessimistic storyline by 2300 involving significant ice-sheet instability, an additional 13 million people could be exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood event.
๐ท Under some scenarios there is a need for large-scale movement of populations and settlements away from the coast in the coming centuriesโฆโ
--
โUp to 13 million people in the UK face the long-term risk of coastal flooding due to the climate crisis, scientists have warned, with a โreasonable worst-case scenarioโ suggesting the need for the large-scale movement of populations away from a dramatically reshaped coastโฆ
Sea level has risen by about 20cm around the UK in the last century and is accelerating. A further 40cm to 60cm by 2100 is already baked in, meaning about half a million more people will be at risk of their homes being flooded, on top of the 2.5 million already in danger near the coasts. Lincolnshire and the Humber estuary are most in dangerโฆโ
--
โThe latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report highlighted the potential for more than 15โmetres of global sea-level rise by 2300. In this study, [the authors] explore the implications for UK coastal flood exposure by combining national-scale flood modelling with physically-based storylines of UK sea-level rise. By 2100 all storylines show broadly similar results with at least an additional ยฝ million people exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood extent, which represents a 25% increase compared to present day. Under the most pessimistic storyline by 2300 involving significant ice-sheet instability, an additional 13 million people could be exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood event. This would imply the potential need for large-scale movement of populations and settlements away from the coast in the coming centuries. Given current global emissions pledges, exposure increases by 1.7 million people by 2300, however up to 1 million could be avoided if Paris Agreement targets for greenhouse gas emissions are metโฆโ
#coast #coastal #innundation #climatechange #global #sealevel #sealevelrise #SLR #flood #flooding #climatechange #population #infrastructure #UK #England #Scotland #Wales #NorthernIreland #Lincolnshire #Humber #estuary #settlement #city #urban #mitigation #planning #policy #infrastructure #risk #hazard #humanimpacts #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #GIS #spatial #mapping #coastalflooding #climatecrisis #model #modeling #elevation #DEM -
Quantifying UK Coastal Flood Exposure Under Future Sea-Level Rise To [2100 and] 2300
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-74982-1 <-- shared paper
--
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jul/21/millions-long-term-coastal-flooding-risk-uk-climate-action <-- shared media article
--
H/T @University of Bristol School of Geographical Sciences
โ๐ New research on long-term coastal flooding as a result of climate inaction ๐
โฆ The researchers found:
๐ท By 2100 at least an additional 0.5 million people exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood extent - a 25% increase compared to present day.
๐ท Under the most pessimistic storyline by 2300 involving significant ice-sheet instability, an additional 13 million people could be exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood event.
๐ท Under some scenarios there is a need for large-scale movement of populations and settlements away from the coast in the coming centuriesโฆโ
--
โUp to 13 million people in the UK face the long-term risk of coastal flooding due to the climate crisis, scientists have warned, with a โreasonable worst-case scenarioโ suggesting the need for the large-scale movement of populations away from a dramatically reshaped coastโฆ
Sea level has risen by about 20cm around the UK in the last century and is accelerating. A further 40cm to 60cm by 2100 is already baked in, meaning about half a million more people will be at risk of their homes being flooded, on top of the 2.5 million already in danger near the coasts. Lincolnshire and the Humber estuary are most in dangerโฆโ
--
โThe latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report highlighted the potential for more than 15โmetres of global sea-level rise by 2300. In this study, [the authors] explore the implications for UK coastal flood exposure by combining national-scale flood modelling with physically-based storylines of UK sea-level rise. By 2100 all storylines show broadly similar results with at least an additional ยฝ million people exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood extent, which represents a 25% increase compared to present day. Under the most pessimistic storyline by 2300 involving significant ice-sheet instability, an additional 13 million people could be exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood event. This would imply the potential need for large-scale movement of populations and settlements away from the coast in the coming centuries. Given current global emissions pledges, exposure increases by 1.7 million people by 2300, however up to 1 million could be avoided if Paris Agreement targets for greenhouse gas emissions are metโฆโ
#coast #coastal #innundation #climatechange #global #sealevel #sealevelrise #SLR #flood #flooding #climatechange #population #infrastructure #UK #England #Scotland #Wales #NorthernIreland #Lincolnshire #Humber #estuary #settlement #city #urban #mitigation #planning #policy #infrastructure #risk #hazard #humanimpacts #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #GIS #spatial #mapping #coastalflooding #climatecrisis #model #modeling #elevation #DEM -
Impact Of Reservoir Storage On Propagation From Meteorological To Hydrological Drought
--
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136061 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @DrAjayGupta | Post Doctoral Fellow, IIT Bombay | Ph.D. in Hydrology, IIT Roorkee | Commonwealth Split-site Fellow, University of Birmingham I M.Tech in Water Resources Engineering, NIT Silchar | B.E. in Civil Engineering, PCE Nagpur.
โ๐ Why is this important?
While reservoirs are widely recognized for mitigating drought impacts, their role in controlling how drought propagates through the hydrological cycle has remained largely unexplored. In this study, [the authors] investigate how reservoir storage influences the transition of drought from meteorological to agricultural to reservoir to streamflow drought across the semi-arid Krishna River Basin, India.
๐ THIS STUDY ADDRESSES TWO KEY RESEARCH QUESTIONS:
โ How do drought propagation time (initiation, peak, and termination) change from meteorological to agricultural, reservoir, and streamflow droughts across different timescales and threshold values?
โ How does reservoir storage influence drought propagation between upstream and downstream reservoirs using the Downstreamness concept?
๐ KEY FINDINGS
๐น Drought propagation differs substantially across drought types because each component of the hydrological system responds at different rates.
๐น Reservoirs significantly delay the propagation of drought by buffering water deficits, particularly between agricultural and streamflow drought.
๐น Mild and moderate upstream reservoir droughts rarely propagate downstream, whereas severe upstream droughts consistently transmit downstream, leading to longer duration, greater severity, and delayed onset.
๐น The downstreamness analysis reveals dynamic shifts in water storage between upstream and downstream reservoirs throughout drought development and recovery, providing valuable insights for reservoir operation and basin-scale drought managementโฆโ
--
โHIGHLIGHTS
โข Reservoir storage impact on drought propagation from meteorological-to-hydrological drought.
โข Drought propagation timeframe: initiation, peak and termination are checked.
โข Impact assessment using hydrological connection: upstream to downstream reservoirs.
โข Severe upstream droughts propagate downstream with increased duration and severity.
โข During drought periods water-storage concentration shifts from downstream to upstream..."
#Drought #DroughtPropagation #Reservoirs #WaterResources #WaterManagement #RiverBasinManagement #KrishnaRiverBasin #Downstreamness #India #climatechange #reservoir #storage #hydrology #water #hydrologiccycle #watersecurity #planning #policy #KrishnaRiver #weather #climate #metrology #agriculture #farming #streamflow #model #modeling #spatiotemporal #spatialanalysis -
Impact Of Reservoir Storage On Propagation From Meteorological To Hydrological Drought
--
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136061 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @DrAjayGupta | Post Doctoral Fellow, IIT Bombay | Ph.D. in Hydrology, IIT Roorkee | Commonwealth Split-site Fellow, University of Birmingham I M.Tech in Water Resources Engineering, NIT Silchar | B.E. in Civil Engineering, PCE Nagpur.
โ๐ Why is this important?
While reservoirs are widely recognized for mitigating drought impacts, their role in controlling how drought propagates through the hydrological cycle has remained largely unexplored. In this study, [the authors] investigate how reservoir storage influences the transition of drought from meteorological to agricultural to reservoir to streamflow drought across the semi-arid Krishna River Basin, India.
๐ THIS STUDY ADDRESSES TWO KEY RESEARCH QUESTIONS:
โ How do drought propagation time (initiation, peak, and termination) change from meteorological to agricultural, reservoir, and streamflow droughts across different timescales and threshold values?
โ How does reservoir storage influence drought propagation between upstream and downstream reservoirs using the Downstreamness concept?
๐ KEY FINDINGS
๐น Drought propagation differs substantially across drought types because each component of the hydrological system responds at different rates.
๐น Reservoirs significantly delay the propagation of drought by buffering water deficits, particularly between agricultural and streamflow drought.
๐น Mild and moderate upstream reservoir droughts rarely propagate downstream, whereas severe upstream droughts consistently transmit downstream, leading to longer duration, greater severity, and delayed onset.
๐น The downstreamness analysis reveals dynamic shifts in water storage between upstream and downstream reservoirs throughout drought development and recovery, providing valuable insights for reservoir operation and basin-scale drought managementโฆโ
--
โHIGHLIGHTS
โข Reservoir storage impact on drought propagation from meteorological-to-hydrological drought.
โข Drought propagation timeframe: initiation, peak and termination are checked.
โข Impact assessment using hydrological connection: upstream to downstream reservoirs.
โข Severe upstream droughts propagate downstream with increased duration and severity.
โข During drought periods water-storage concentration shifts from downstream to upstream..."
#Drought #DroughtPropagation #Reservoirs #WaterResources #WaterManagement #RiverBasinManagement #KrishnaRiverBasin #Downstreamness #India #climatechange #reservoir #storage #hydrology #water #hydrologiccycle #watersecurity #planning #policy #KrishnaRiver #weather #climate #metrology #agriculture #farming #streamflow #model #modeling #spatiotemporal #spatialanalysis -
Impact Of Reservoir Storage On Propagation From Meteorological To Hydrological Drought
--
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136061 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @DrAjayGupta | Post Doctoral Fellow, IIT Bombay | Ph.D. in Hydrology, IIT Roorkee | Commonwealth Split-site Fellow, University of Birmingham I M.Tech in Water Resources Engineering, NIT Silchar | B.E. in Civil Engineering, PCE Nagpur.
โ๐ Why is this important?
While reservoirs are widely recognized for mitigating drought impacts, their role in controlling how drought propagates through the hydrological cycle has remained largely unexplored. In this study, [the authors] investigate how reservoir storage influences the transition of drought from meteorological to agricultural to reservoir to streamflow drought across the semi-arid Krishna River Basin, India.
๐ THIS STUDY ADDRESSES TWO KEY RESEARCH QUESTIONS:
โ How do drought propagation time (initiation, peak, and termination) change from meteorological to agricultural, reservoir, and streamflow droughts across different timescales and threshold values?
โ How does reservoir storage influence drought propagation between upstream and downstream reservoirs using the Downstreamness concept?
๐ KEY FINDINGS
๐น Drought propagation differs substantially across drought types because each component of the hydrological system responds at different rates.
๐น Reservoirs significantly delay the propagation of drought by buffering water deficits, particularly between agricultural and streamflow drought.
๐น Mild and moderate upstream reservoir droughts rarely propagate downstream, whereas severe upstream droughts consistently transmit downstream, leading to longer duration, greater severity, and delayed onset.
๐น The downstreamness analysis reveals dynamic shifts in water storage between upstream and downstream reservoirs throughout drought development and recovery, providing valuable insights for reservoir operation and basin-scale drought managementโฆโ
--
โHIGHLIGHTS
โข Reservoir storage impact on drought propagation from meteorological-to-hydrological drought.
โข Drought propagation timeframe: initiation, peak and termination are checked.
โข Impact assessment using hydrological connection: upstream to downstream reservoirs.
โข Severe upstream droughts propagate downstream with increased duration and severity.
โข During drought periods water-storage concentration shifts from downstream to upstream..."
#Drought #DroughtPropagation #Reservoirs #WaterResources #WaterManagement #RiverBasinManagement #KrishnaRiverBasin #Downstreamness #India #climatechange #reservoir #storage #hydrology #water #hydrologiccycle #watersecurity #planning #policy #KrishnaRiver #weather #climate #metrology #agriculture #farming #streamflow #model #modeling #spatiotemporal #spatialanalysis -
Closure Of The Strait Of Hormuz May Trigger A Bioinvasion Super-Spreader Event
--
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-026-03893-5 <-- shared paper / brief report
--
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jul/29/biodiversity-superspreader-invasive-species-threat-ships-stuck-strait-hormuz-gulf <-- shared media article
--
https://ecomagazine.com/news/coastal/idle-ships-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-could-trigger-a-global-bioinvasion-event/ <-- shared technical article
--
https://thedeepdraft.com/2026/06/08/the-barnacle-problem-waiting-behind-hormuz/ <-- shared technical article
--
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aGz7pBF08k <-- shared technicial overview video
--
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/science/thousands-of-idle-ships-trapped-near-the-strait-of-hormuz-could-become-floating-nurseries-for-invasive-marine-species-and-spread-them-worldwide-when-trade-resumes/articleshow/132576193.cms <-- shared media article
--
H/T @alejandro Bortolus | Investigador Principal CONICET
[โconsequencesโ, fascinating, illuminating and scary frankly!!]
โThe ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are causing substantial humanitarian, economic, and geopolitical impacts and disrupting global trade. While the human and economic effects remain the focus of most immediate concern, a pending ecological crisis is also unfolding. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, 2026, stranded an estimated 1,500 ships in the Persian/Arabian Gulf, with hundreds more anchored in the Gulf of Oman. Prolonged stationary periods lead to substantial biofouling penalties for ships, as marine microbes, algae, and invertebrates rapidly colonize and grow on submerged surfaces. This accumulation not only impairs vessel operations but also creates significant environmental risks. A major concern is the high likelihood that these idle ships will facilitate the extensive spread of economically and ecologically damaging invasive species as they re-enter the global shipping network. Given the unprecedented scale and duration of this mass lay-up of ships, conditions are primed for a large-scale, marine bioinvasion โsuper-spreaderโ event as regular maritime trade in the region resumes. The combination of extensive biofouling growth and species accumulation, and the sheer number, size, and global reach of affected vessels, has created an immense international biosecurity threat. Here, [they] highlight the biosecurity risks arising from the closure of the Strait and provide recommendations to mitigate them. [They] urge relevant stakeholders worldwide, including ship operators, port authorities, and environmental managers, to prepare now for the backlog of ship biofouling management requirements and to implement appropriate actions to abate this extraordinary biosecurity threat...โ
#bioinvasion #superspreader #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #mapping #global #worldwide #conflict #MiddleEast #biofouling #stationary #warmwater #marine #ship #shipping #cargo #transportation #StraitofHormuz #ecology #crisis #vessel #environmental #risk #hazard #economy #impact #humanimpacts #largescale #maritime #trade #international #biosecurity -
Closure Of The Strait Of Hormuz May Trigger A Bioinvasion Super-Spreader Event
--
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-026-03893-5 <-- shared paper / brief report
--
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jul/29/biodiversity-superspreader-invasive-species-threat-ships-stuck-strait-hormuz-gulf <-- shared media article
--
https://ecomagazine.com/news/coastal/idle-ships-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-could-trigger-a-global-bioinvasion-event/ <-- shared technical article
--
https://thedeepdraft.com/2026/06/08/the-barnacle-problem-waiting-behind-hormuz/ <-- shared technical article
--
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aGz7pBF08k <-- shared technicial overview video
--
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/science/thousands-of-idle-ships-trapped-near-the-strait-of-hormuz-could-become-floating-nurseries-for-invasive-marine-species-and-spread-them-worldwide-when-trade-resumes/articleshow/132576193.cms <-- shared media article
--
H/T @alejandro Bortolus | Investigador Principal CONICET
[โconsequencesโ, fascinating, illuminating and scary frankly!!]
โThe ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are causing substantial humanitarian, economic, and geopolitical impacts and disrupting global trade. While the human and economic effects remain the focus of most immediate concern, a pending ecological crisis is also unfolding. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, 2026, stranded an estimated 1,500 ships in the Persian/Arabian Gulf, with hundreds more anchored in the Gulf of Oman. Prolonged stationary periods lead to substantial biofouling penalties for ships, as marine microbes, algae, and invertebrates rapidly colonize and grow on submerged surfaces. This accumulation not only impairs vessel operations but also creates significant environmental risks. A major concern is the high likelihood that these idle ships will facilitate the extensive spread of economically and ecologically damaging invasive species as they re-enter the global shipping network. Given the unprecedented scale and duration of this mass lay-up of ships, conditions are primed for a large-scale, marine bioinvasion โsuper-spreaderโ event as regular maritime trade in the region resumes. The combination of extensive biofouling growth and species accumulation, and the sheer number, size, and global reach of affected vessels, has created an immense international biosecurity threat. Here, [they] highlight the biosecurity risks arising from the closure of the Strait and provide recommendations to mitigate them. [They] urge relevant stakeholders worldwide, including ship operators, port authorities, and environmental managers, to prepare now for the backlog of ship biofouling management requirements and to implement appropriate actions to abate this extraordinary biosecurity threat...โ
#bioinvasion #superspreader #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #mapping #global #worldwide #conflict #MiddleEast #biofouling #stationary #warmwater #marine #ship #shipping #cargo #transportation #StraitofHormuz #ecology #crisis #vessel #environmental #risk #hazard #economy #impact #humanimpacts #largescale #maritime #trade #international #biosecurity -
Closure Of The Strait Of Hormuz May Trigger A Bioinvasion Super-Spreader Event
--
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-026-03893-5 <-- shared paper / brief report
--
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jul/29/biodiversity-superspreader-invasive-species-threat-ships-stuck-strait-hormuz-gulf <-- shared media article
--
https://ecomagazine.com/news/coastal/idle-ships-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-could-trigger-a-global-bioinvasion-event/ <-- shared technical article
--
https://thedeepdraft.com/2026/06/08/the-barnacle-problem-waiting-behind-hormuz/ <-- shared technical article
--
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aGz7pBF08k <-- shared technicial overview video
--
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/science/thousands-of-idle-ships-trapped-near-the-strait-of-hormuz-could-become-floating-nurseries-for-invasive-marine-species-and-spread-them-worldwide-when-trade-resumes/articleshow/132576193.cms <-- shared media article
--
H/T @alejandro Bortolus | Investigador Principal CONICET
[โconsequencesโ, fascinating, illuminating and scary frankly!!]
โThe ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are causing substantial humanitarian, economic, and geopolitical impacts and disrupting global trade. While the human and economic effects remain the focus of most immediate concern, a pending ecological crisis is also unfolding. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, 2026, stranded an estimated 1,500 ships in the Persian/Arabian Gulf, with hundreds more anchored in the Gulf of Oman. Prolonged stationary periods lead to substantial biofouling penalties for ships, as marine microbes, algae, and invertebrates rapidly colonize and grow on submerged surfaces. This accumulation not only impairs vessel operations but also creates significant environmental risks. A major concern is the high likelihood that these idle ships will facilitate the extensive spread of economically and ecologically damaging invasive species as they re-enter the global shipping network. Given the unprecedented scale and duration of this mass lay-up of ships, conditions are primed for a large-scale, marine bioinvasion โsuper-spreaderโ event as regular maritime trade in the region resumes. The combination of extensive biofouling growth and species accumulation, and the sheer number, size, and global reach of affected vessels, has created an immense international biosecurity threat. Here, [they] highlight the biosecurity risks arising from the closure of the Strait and provide recommendations to mitigate them. [They] urge relevant stakeholders worldwide, including ship operators, port authorities, and environmental managers, to prepare now for the backlog of ship biofouling management requirements and to implement appropriate actions to abate this extraordinary biosecurity threat...โ
#bioinvasion #superspreader #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #mapping #global #worldwide #conflict #MiddleEast #biofouling #stationary #warmwater #marine #ship #shipping #cargo #transportation #StraitofHormuz #ecology #crisis #vessel #environmental #risk #hazard #economy #impact #humanimpacts #largescale #maritime #trade #international #biosecurity -
Global Performance of #RemoteSensing Based and Reanalysis-Driven Models to Estimate Open Water Evaporation
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025WR042363
--
โABSTRACT: Evaporation plays an essential role in the water cycle, influencing local and regional climates while directly impacting water availability in lakes. However, directly measuring evaporation over water bodies remains challenging due to the high costs of installing and maintaining the required in situ instrumentation. Although several remote sensing algorithms have been providing evaporation estimates, the lack of a global validation hinders our understanding of their relative uncertainties and performances across different regions. Here, [they] analyze[d] the performance of a suite of models that leverage satellite data and meteorological reanalysis to estimate evaporation over lakes worldwide. [They] compare[d] three remote sensing-based models, one reanalysis-driven model and one ensemble approach, using in situ observations from 27 lakes representing a diverse range of geographic and climatic regions. [Their] results demonstrate that, overall, the ensemble outperformed any individual model in terms of accuracy, with a RMSE and a bias of 1.3 and 0.3 mm/day, respectively. These findings highlight the benefits of using an ensemble approach to estimate open water evaporation with satellite-based models at the global scale, leveraging the unique strengths of each model. For the individual models, differences in the representation of heat storage changes and advection effects led to lower values of RMSE and bias, depending on the location and depth of the lakes. This study sets the path for future improvement of open water evaporation algorithms globally, while remote sensing techniques are proven satisfactory to monitoring of water loss in lakes globally, an essential step toward effective large-scale water resources management.
PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Water loss through evaporation in lakes and reservoirs directly affects water availability, which highlights the need to monitor these losses. However, measuring evaporation in situ is challenging and expensive. An alternative is to estimate evaporation using remote-sensing models and compare these estimates with in-situ data to verify their accuracy. Here, [they] evaluated four models and their ensemble (the models' mean value) using measurements from 27 lakes and reservoirs worldwide. [They] found that the ensemble presented higher accuracy and consistency than any individual model because it benefits from the strengths of each model. This approach can guide future improvements in estimating open-water evaporation, which is essential for large-scale water-resource managementโฆโ
#global #mapping #earthobservation #GIS #spatial #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #model #modeling #water #hydrology #surfacewater #waterbody #lake #reservoir #evaporation #evapotranspiration #watercycle #weather #meteorology #usecase #waterresources #watermanagement #waterloss #regional #estimate #policy #planning #instrumentation #comparasion -
Global Performance of #RemoteSensing Based and Reanalysis-Driven Models to Estimate Open Water Evaporation
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025WR042363
--
โABSTRACT: Evaporation plays an essential role in the water cycle, influencing local and regional climates while directly impacting water availability in lakes. However, directly measuring evaporation over water bodies remains challenging due to the high costs of installing and maintaining the required in situ instrumentation. Although several remote sensing algorithms have been providing evaporation estimates, the lack of a global validation hinders our understanding of their relative uncertainties and performances across different regions. Here, [they] analyze[d] the performance of a suite of models that leverage satellite data and meteorological reanalysis to estimate evaporation over lakes worldwide. [They] compare[d] three remote sensing-based models, one reanalysis-driven model and one ensemble approach, using in situ observations from 27 lakes representing a diverse range of geographic and climatic regions. [Their] results demonstrate that, overall, the ensemble outperformed any individual model in terms of accuracy, with a RMSE and a bias of 1.3 and 0.3 mm/day, respectively. These findings highlight the benefits of using an ensemble approach to estimate open water evaporation with satellite-based models at the global scale, leveraging the unique strengths of each model. For the individual models, differences in the representation of heat storage changes and advection effects led to lower values of RMSE and bias, depending on the location and depth of the lakes. This study sets the path for future improvement of open water evaporation algorithms globally, while remote sensing techniques are proven satisfactory to monitoring of water loss in lakes globally, an essential step toward effective large-scale water resources management.
PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Water loss through evaporation in lakes and reservoirs directly affects water availability, which highlights the need to monitor these losses. However, measuring evaporation in situ is challenging and expensive. An alternative is to estimate evaporation using remote-sensing models and compare these estimates with in-situ data to verify their accuracy. Here, [they] evaluated four models and their ensemble (the models' mean value) using measurements from 27 lakes and reservoirs worldwide. [They] found that the ensemble presented higher accuracy and consistency than any individual model because it benefits from the strengths of each model. This approach can guide future improvements in estimating open-water evaporation, which is essential for large-scale water-resource managementโฆโ
#global #mapping #earthobservation #GIS #spatial #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #model #modeling #water #hydrology #surfacewater #waterbody #lake #reservoir #evaporation #evapotranspiration #watercycle #weather #meteorology #usecase #waterresources #watermanagement #waterloss #regional #estimate #policy #planning #instrumentation #comparasion -
Global Performance of #RemoteSensing Based and Reanalysis-Driven Models to Estimate Open Water Evaporation
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025WR042363
--
โABSTRACT: Evaporation plays an essential role in the water cycle, influencing local and regional climates while directly impacting water availability in lakes. However, directly measuring evaporation over water bodies remains challenging due to the high costs of installing and maintaining the required in situ instrumentation. Although several remote sensing algorithms have been providing evaporation estimates, the lack of a global validation hinders our understanding of their relative uncertainties and performances across different regions. Here, [they] analyze[d] the performance of a suite of models that leverage satellite data and meteorological reanalysis to estimate evaporation over lakes worldwide. [They] compare[d] three remote sensing-based models, one reanalysis-driven model and one ensemble approach, using in situ observations from 27 lakes representing a diverse range of geographic and climatic regions. [Their] results demonstrate that, overall, the ensemble outperformed any individual model in terms of accuracy, with a RMSE and a bias of 1.3 and 0.3 mm/day, respectively. These findings highlight the benefits of using an ensemble approach to estimate open water evaporation with satellite-based models at the global scale, leveraging the unique strengths of each model. For the individual models, differences in the representation of heat storage changes and advection effects led to lower values of RMSE and bias, depending on the location and depth of the lakes. This study sets the path for future improvement of open water evaporation algorithms globally, while remote sensing techniques are proven satisfactory to monitoring of water loss in lakes globally, an essential step toward effective large-scale water resources management.
PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Water loss through evaporation in lakes and reservoirs directly affects water availability, which highlights the need to monitor these losses. However, measuring evaporation in situ is challenging and expensive. An alternative is to estimate evaporation using remote-sensing models and compare these estimates with in-situ data to verify their accuracy. Here, [they] evaluated four models and their ensemble (the models' mean value) using measurements from 27 lakes and reservoirs worldwide. [They] found that the ensemble presented higher accuracy and consistency than any individual model because it benefits from the strengths of each model. This approach can guide future improvements in estimating open-water evaporation, which is essential for large-scale water-resource managementโฆโ
#global #mapping #earthobservation #GIS #spatial #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #model #modeling #water #hydrology #surfacewater #waterbody #lake #reservoir #evaporation #evapotranspiration #watercycle #weather #meteorology #usecase #waterresources #watermanagement #waterloss #regional #estimate #policy #planning #instrumentation #comparasion -
Refined Modeling of Arctic Circumpolar Building Stock Increases Estimated Mid-Century Permafrost Degradation Damages
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008578 <-- shared paper
--
https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/climate-change-geopolitics-monitoring-thawing-permafrost/ | https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/dwindling-arctic-sea-ice-impacts-permafrost-health/ <-- shared technical articles
--
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/oct/14/thawing-permafrost-destroying-arctic-cities-norilsk-russia <-- shared media article
--
https://news.grida.no/new-map-shows-extent-of-permafrost-in-northern-hemisphere <-- shared technical article
--
H/T @elias Manos
โWhy the increase?
Our understanding of climate risk is only as good as our understanding of our exposure to hazards. The better we can account for what is at risk, the better we can measure risk in a changing world.
In this new study [link above], [they] investigate[d] how damage to the building stock across the Arctic, a key impact of permafrost degradation, is underestimated because of underdeveloped exposure information. With National Science Foundation (NSF) supercomputers and 400 TB of Vantor satellite imagery, [they] detected building footprints across the Arctic and classified their use types using deep learning models. Then, using Polar Geospatial Center's ArcticDEM digital surface model, [they] estimated the total floor space of each residential building. This move from 2D to 3D representation of the building stock was the largest contributor to increased building damage.
Properly estimating this consequence is necessary for understanding the near future of the Arctic economy. Knowing the magnitude of damages is critical for sustaining the communities and livelihoods of more than 5 million people that call the Arctic home. There are also much broader implications. With the Arctic continuing to emerge as a strategic centerpiece in global affairs and the global economy, accurately quantifying the physical shocks to its built environment will allow researchers to more effectively represent the Arctic in global climate economic models. More precise international policymaking will also be enabled by these improvements.
Ultimately, this research highlights a similar challenge in completely different regions of the world (e.g., Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa) where exposure is constantly evolving alongside rapid population growth and urbanization. Building stock information can quickly become outdated as these changes occur; satellite remote sensing and AI are key players in keeping up with these changes and supporting data-driven disaster risk managementโฆโ
#arctic #circumpolar #permafrost #model #modeling #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #GIS #spatial #mapping #melting #degradation #damage #cost #economics #risk #hazard #climaterisk #climatechange #remotesensing #HPC #earthobservation #ArcticDEM #buildingfootprint #LLM #AI #machinelearning #engineering #economy #buildingstock #community #policy #planning #geopolitics #risk #management @UConn Research -
Refined Modeling of Arctic Circumpolar Building Stock Increases Estimated Mid-Century Permafrost Degradation Damages
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008578 <-- shared paper
--
https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/climate-change-geopolitics-monitoring-thawing-permafrost/ | https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/dwindling-arctic-sea-ice-impacts-permafrost-health/ <-- shared technical articles
--
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/oct/14/thawing-permafrost-destroying-arctic-cities-norilsk-russia <-- shared media article
--
https://news.grida.no/new-map-shows-extent-of-permafrost-in-northern-hemisphere <-- shared technical article
--
H/T @elias Manos
โWhy the increase?
Our understanding of climate risk is only as good as our understanding of our exposure to hazards. The better we can account for what is at risk, the better we can measure risk in a changing world.
In this new study [link above], [they] investigate[d] how damage to the building stock across the Arctic, a key impact of permafrost degradation, is underestimated because of underdeveloped exposure information. With National Science Foundation (NSF) supercomputers and 400 TB of Vantor satellite imagery, [they] detected building footprints across the Arctic and classified their use types using deep learning models. Then, using Polar Geospatial Center's ArcticDEM digital surface model, [they] estimated the total floor space of each residential building. This move from 2D to 3D representation of the building stock was the largest contributor to increased building damage.
Properly estimating this consequence is necessary for understanding the near future of the Arctic economy. Knowing the magnitude of damages is critical for sustaining the communities and livelihoods of more than 5 million people that call the Arctic home. There are also much broader implications. With the Arctic continuing to emerge as a strategic centerpiece in global affairs and the global economy, accurately quantifying the physical shocks to its built environment will allow researchers to more effectively represent the Arctic in global climate economic models. More precise international policymaking will also be enabled by these improvements.
Ultimately, this research highlights a similar challenge in completely different regions of the world (e.g., Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa) where exposure is constantly evolving alongside rapid population growth and urbanization. Building stock information can quickly become outdated as these changes occur; satellite remote sensing and AI are key players in keeping up with these changes and supporting data-driven disaster risk managementโฆโ
#arctic #circumpolar #permafrost #model #modeling #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #GIS #spatial #mapping #melting #degradation #damage #cost #economics #risk #hazard #climaterisk #climatechange #remotesensing #HPC #earthobservation #ArcticDEM #buildingfootprint #LLM #AI #machinelearning #engineering #economy #buildingstock #community #policy #planning #geopolitics #risk #management @UConn Research -
Refined Modeling of Arctic Circumpolar Building Stock Increases Estimated Mid-Century Permafrost Degradation Damages
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008578 <-- shared paper
--
https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/climate-change-geopolitics-monitoring-thawing-permafrost/ | https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/dwindling-arctic-sea-ice-impacts-permafrost-health/ <-- shared technical articles
--
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/oct/14/thawing-permafrost-destroying-arctic-cities-norilsk-russia <-- shared media article
--
https://news.grida.no/new-map-shows-extent-of-permafrost-in-northern-hemisphere <-- shared technical article
--
H/T @elias Manos
โWhy the increase?
Our understanding of climate risk is only as good as our understanding of our exposure to hazards. The better we can account for what is at risk, the better we can measure risk in a changing world.
In this new study [link above], [they] investigate[d] how damage to the building stock across the Arctic, a key impact of permafrost degradation, is underestimated because of underdeveloped exposure information. With National Science Foundation (NSF) supercomputers and 400 TB of Vantor satellite imagery, [they] detected building footprints across the Arctic and classified their use types using deep learning models. Then, using Polar Geospatial Center's ArcticDEM digital surface model, [they] estimated the total floor space of each residential building. This move from 2D to 3D representation of the building stock was the largest contributor to increased building damage.
Properly estimating this consequence is necessary for understanding the near future of the Arctic economy. Knowing the magnitude of damages is critical for sustaining the communities and livelihoods of more than 5 million people that call the Arctic home. There are also much broader implications. With the Arctic continuing to emerge as a strategic centerpiece in global affairs and the global economy, accurately quantifying the physical shocks to its built environment will allow researchers to more effectively represent the Arctic in global climate economic models. More precise international policymaking will also be enabled by these improvements.
Ultimately, this research highlights a similar challenge in completely different regions of the world (e.g., Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa) where exposure is constantly evolving alongside rapid population growth and urbanization. Building stock information can quickly become outdated as these changes occur; satellite remote sensing and AI are key players in keeping up with these changes and supporting data-driven disaster risk managementโฆโ
#arctic #circumpolar #permafrost #model #modeling #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #GIS #spatial #mapping #melting #degradation #damage #cost #economics #risk #hazard #climaterisk #climatechange #remotesensing #HPC #earthobservation #ArcticDEM #buildingfootprint #LLM #AI #machinelearning #engineering #economy #buildingstock #community #policy #planning #geopolitics #risk #management @UConn Research -
Impact of River Morphology on RiverโGroundwater Exchange in Braided River Systems
--
https://doi.org/10.1111/gwat.70092 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @thomas Wรถhling | Professor at TU Dresden
โDo you like braided rivers? We think they are soooo beautiful. And they are interesting to study as well. Particularly how these complex and transient systems interact with regional aquifersโฆโ
--
โCoupled models of two braided rivers with real, pre- and postflood event morphologies are studied for riverโgroundwater exchange changesโฆโ
--
โBraided river systems are an important source for groundwater recharge, but their complex morphology makes riverโgroundwater exchange fluxes difficult to estimate. Their river channel morphology changes frequently after floods, which has effects on recharge rates that have rarely been studied in the past. This work aims to isolate the effects of changes in braided river morphology on groundwater recharge for two sections of the Wairau River and Waikirikiri River in New Zealand. For each study site, two different river morphology variants of a fully coupled surface waterโgroundwater model utilizing high-resolution DEMs of river bathymetry before and after a major flood event were set up while keeping parameterization and boundary conditions the same. The models demonstrate that flood-induced morphology changes in braided river systems alter groundwater recharge. [They] identif[ied] features, both simulated and observed, that explain the direction of change. Features that increase groundwater recharge are a larger braidplain aquifer extent and volume, larger wetted area and, specifically, an increase of areas with high exchange rates in locations of larger gradients between braidplain aquifer and regional aquifer. These factors influence groundwater recharge independent of connection (Wairau River) or disconnection (Waikirikiri River) of the system to the regional aquifer, albeit with different magnitudes. An extension of [their] research to other braided rivers is needed to more broadly generalize [their] findings...โ
#NewZealand #river #morphology #braided #Waikirikiri #Wairau #water #hydrology #hydrography #model #modeling #groundwater #aquifer #waterresources #recharge #infiltration #flood #flow #flooding #hydrogeomorphology #exchangefluxes #surfacewater #remotesensing #DEM #elevation #spatialanalysis #GIS #spatial #mapping #change #dynamic #spatiotemporal #bathymetry -
Impact of River Morphology on RiverโGroundwater Exchange in Braided River Systems
--
https://doi.org/10.1111/gwat.70092 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @thomas Wรถhling | Professor at TU Dresden
โDo you like braided rivers? We think they are soooo beautiful. And they are interesting to study as well. Particularly how these complex and transient systems interact with regional aquifersโฆโ
--
โCoupled models of two braided rivers with real, pre- and postflood event morphologies are studied for riverโgroundwater exchange changesโฆโ
--
โBraided river systems are an important source for groundwater recharge, but their complex morphology makes riverโgroundwater exchange fluxes difficult to estimate. Their river channel morphology changes frequently after floods, which has effects on recharge rates that have rarely been studied in the past. This work aims to isolate the effects of changes in braided river morphology on groundwater recharge for two sections of the Wairau River and Waikirikiri River in New Zealand. For each study site, two different river morphology variants of a fully coupled surface waterโgroundwater model utilizing high-resolution DEMs of river bathymetry before and after a major flood event were set up while keeping parameterization and boundary conditions the same. The models demonstrate that flood-induced morphology changes in braided river systems alter groundwater recharge. [They] identif[ied] features, both simulated and observed, that explain the direction of change. Features that increase groundwater recharge are a larger braidplain aquifer extent and volume, larger wetted area and, specifically, an increase of areas with high exchange rates in locations of larger gradients between braidplain aquifer and regional aquifer. These factors influence groundwater recharge independent of connection (Wairau River) or disconnection (Waikirikiri River) of the system to the regional aquifer, albeit with different magnitudes. An extension of [their] research to other braided rivers is needed to more broadly generalize [their] findings...โ
#NewZealand #river #morphology #braided #Waikirikiri #Wairau #water #hydrology #hydrography #model #modeling #groundwater #aquifer #waterresources #recharge #infiltration #flood #flow #flooding #hydrogeomorphology #exchangefluxes #surfacewater #remotesensing #DEM #elevation #spatialanalysis #GIS #spatial #mapping #change #dynamic #spatiotemporal #bathymetry -
Impact of River Morphology on RiverโGroundwater Exchange in Braided River Systems
--
https://doi.org/10.1111/gwat.70092 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @thomas Wรถhling | Professor at TU Dresden
โDo you like braided rivers? We think they are soooo beautiful. And they are interesting to study as well. Particularly how these complex and transient systems interact with regional aquifersโฆโ
--
โCoupled models of two braided rivers with real, pre- and postflood event morphologies are studied for riverโgroundwater exchange changesโฆโ
--
โBraided river systems are an important source for groundwater recharge, but their complex morphology makes riverโgroundwater exchange fluxes difficult to estimate. Their river channel morphology changes frequently after floods, which has effects on recharge rates that have rarely been studied in the past. This work aims to isolate the effects of changes in braided river morphology on groundwater recharge for two sections of the Wairau River and Waikirikiri River in New Zealand. For each study site, two different river morphology variants of a fully coupled surface waterโgroundwater model utilizing high-resolution DEMs of river bathymetry before and after a major flood event were set up while keeping parameterization and boundary conditions the same. The models demonstrate that flood-induced morphology changes in braided river systems alter groundwater recharge. [They] identif[ied] features, both simulated and observed, that explain the direction of change. Features that increase groundwater recharge are a larger braidplain aquifer extent and volume, larger wetted area and, specifically, an increase of areas with high exchange rates in locations of larger gradients between braidplain aquifer and regional aquifer. These factors influence groundwater recharge independent of connection (Wairau River) or disconnection (Waikirikiri River) of the system to the regional aquifer, albeit with different magnitudes. An extension of [their] research to other braided rivers is needed to more broadly generalize [their] findings...โ
#NewZealand #river #morphology #braided #Waikirikiri #Wairau #water #hydrology #hydrography #model #modeling #groundwater #aquifer #waterresources #recharge #infiltration #flood #flow #flooding #hydrogeomorphology #exchangefluxes #surfacewater #remotesensing #DEM #elevation #spatialanalysis #GIS #spatial #mapping #change #dynamic #spatiotemporal #bathymetry -
Beyond The 100-Year Flood - Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment For King And Pierce Counties Under Future Climate Scenarios
--
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3231-2026 <-- shared #openacess paper
--
[part of my old stomping ground as an engineering geologist]
H/T @Kees Nederhoff
โFlood maps are usually built from a single design storm. For King and Pierce Counties in the Pacific Northwest (USA), [the authors] tried the opposite - simulate 82 years of actual coastal and river conditions (plus 18 synthetic years) with SFINCS and let the statistics fall out cell by cell. That took about 5,400 yearly simulations and 194,000 CPU hours on USGS's Hovenweep HPC. Worth it!
The design-event shortcut turns out to hide a real hazard. A deterministic 10-year event underestimated flood depths by up to half a meter compared to the continuous runs.
The bigger surprise [to the authors] was how one-sided the climate signal is. One metre of sea level rise takes King County's expected annual flooded area from 161 --> 787 hectares, almost a factor of five. Changes in storminess over the same horizon barely register. And somewhere between 100 and 150 cm of SLR, land that never floods today starts flooding fast. If you plan adaptation in Puget Sound, that threshold matters more than any single return-period map.
[They] also propose Expected Annual Flooded Area (EAFA) as a probability-weighted alternative to the binary "inside or outside the 100-year zone" labelโฆโ
#USGS #supercomputing #Hovenweep #HPC #coast #coastal #PNW #Seattle #PacificNorthwest #risk #hazard #riskmanagement #model #modeling #CFRM #deterministic #probabilistic #climatechange #extremeweather #fedscience #WA #KingCounty #PierceCounty #WashingtonState #USA #flood #flooding #compoundflooding #floodmaps #SFINCS #storm #weather #climate #climatechange #rainfall #precipitation #sealevel #sealevelrise #SLR #100yearflood #floodhazardmapping #returnperiods #pluvial #fluvial #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #remotesensing #streamgage #history #historicflooding #projections #predictions
#USGS -
Beyond The 100-Year Flood - Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment For King And Pierce Counties Under Future Climate Scenarios
--
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3231-2026 <-- shared #openacess paper
--
[part of my old stomping ground as an engineering geologist]
H/T @Kees Nederhoff
โFlood maps are usually built from a single design storm. For King and Pierce Counties in the Pacific Northwest (USA), [the authors] tried the opposite - simulate 82 years of actual coastal and river conditions (plus 18 synthetic years) with SFINCS and let the statistics fall out cell by cell. That took about 5,400 yearly simulations and 194,000 CPU hours on USGS's Hovenweep HPC. Worth it!
The design-event shortcut turns out to hide a real hazard. A deterministic 10-year event underestimated flood depths by up to half a meter compared to the continuous runs.
The bigger surprise [to the authors] was how one-sided the climate signal is. One metre of sea level rise takes King County's expected annual flooded area from 161 --> 787 hectares, almost a factor of five. Changes in storminess over the same horizon barely register. And somewhere between 100 and 150 cm of SLR, land that never floods today starts flooding fast. If you plan adaptation in Puget Sound, that threshold matters more than any single return-period map.
[They] also propose Expected Annual Flooded Area (EAFA) as a probability-weighted alternative to the binary "inside or outside the 100-year zone" labelโฆโ
#USGS #supercomputing #Hovenweep #HPC #coast #coastal #PNW #Seattle #PacificNorthwest #risk #hazard #riskmanagement #model #modeling #CFRM #deterministic #probabilistic #climatechange #extremeweather #fedscience #WA #KingCounty #PierceCounty #WashingtonState #USA #flood #flooding #compoundflooding #floodmaps #SFINCS #storm #weather #climate #climatechange #rainfall #precipitation #sealevel #sealevelrise #SLR #100yearflood #floodhazardmapping #returnperiods #pluvial #fluvial #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #remotesensing #streamgage #history #historicflooding #projections #predictions
#USGS -
Beyond The 100-Year Flood - Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment For King And Pierce Counties Under Future Climate Scenarios
--
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3231-2026 <-- shared #openacess paper
--
[part of my old stomping ground as an engineering geologist]
H/T @Kees Nederhoff
โFlood maps are usually built from a single design storm. For King and Pierce Counties in the Pacific Northwest (USA), [the authors] tried the opposite - simulate 82 years of actual coastal and river conditions (plus 18 synthetic years) with SFINCS and let the statistics fall out cell by cell. That took about 5,400 yearly simulations and 194,000 CPU hours on USGS's Hovenweep HPC. Worth it!
The design-event shortcut turns out to hide a real hazard. A deterministic 10-year event underestimated flood depths by up to half a meter compared to the continuous runs.
The bigger surprise [to the authors] was how one-sided the climate signal is. One metre of sea level rise takes King County's expected annual flooded area from 161 --> 787 hectares, almost a factor of five. Changes in storminess over the same horizon barely register. And somewhere between 100 and 150 cm of SLR, land that never floods today starts flooding fast. If you plan adaptation in Puget Sound, that threshold matters more than any single return-period map.
[They] also propose Expected Annual Flooded Area (EAFA) as a probability-weighted alternative to the binary "inside or outside the 100-year zone" labelโฆโ
#USGS #supercomputing #Hovenweep #HPC #coast #coastal #PNW #Seattle #PacificNorthwest #risk #hazard #riskmanagement #model #modeling #CFRM #deterministic #probabilistic #climatechange #extremeweather #fedscience #WA #KingCounty #PierceCounty #WashingtonState #USA #flood #flooding #compoundflooding #floodmaps #SFINCS #storm #weather #climate #climatechange #rainfall #precipitation #sealevel #sealevelrise #SLR #100yearflood #floodhazardmapping #returnperiods #pluvial #fluvial #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #remotesensing #streamgage #history #historicflooding #projections #predictions
#USGS -
Mapping Deforestation Probability And Understanding The Forest Dynamics In Gazipur, Bangladesh
--
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2026.101568 <-- shared paper
--
"ABSTRACT: Deforestation is a spiralling environmental catastrophe with impervious results for biodiversity, climate change, and human livelihoods, specifically in tropical regions. Being a tropical country, Bangladesh has experienced approximately 40% loss of its forest cover, at Gazipur since 1930, which contains about 86% of the country's Sal (Shorea robusta) forest, ranging approximately 4,300 hectares per year (2001โ2010) to over 19,500 hectares per year (2011โ2020), exemplifying an intensification of nearly 353%. The objective of this study is to map deforestation probability at the Gazipur district of Dhaka Division, Bangladesh, by utilising machine learning algorithms along with multi-source geospatial data, with the purpose of identifying high-risk zones and facilitating evidence-based forest governance, land-use development, and prioritizing conservation areas. This study integrated twelve conditioning factors, including biophysical, landscape, and anthropogenic. To identify susceptible zones the study trained and assessed five machine learning algorithms; RF, XGBoost, ANN, NB, and MLP and validating the result through different metrics like sensitivity, specificity, precision, accuracy, F1-score, AUC. The performance of the models was evaluated using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests and marginal response curves (MRC) were used to understand factor contributions. In the result, RF achieved highest performance with accuracy of 84% and AUC of 0.93, followed by XGBoost at 83% accuracy and 0.92 AUC. Rainfall and population density were most dominant conditioning factors among models. Pairwise statistical testing resulted that ensemble-based algorithms (RF, XGBoost) generated statistically comparable and significantly higher predictions compared to NB and MLP. Spatial probability maps indicate areas of high and very high risk in the south-western and north-eastern upazilas. The results can be applicable for forest management authorities, urban planners, and policymakers, and correspond with SDG Indicator 15. An inclusive governance framework containing land zoning, ecological area identification, and compliance with industrial EIA is proposed to persuade probability maps into adaptive forest management strategiesโฆโ
#deforestation #probability #machinelearning #algorithms #AI #Gazipur #Bangladesh #GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #rainfall #precipitation #humanimpacts #populationpressure #risk #prediction #RandomForest #conservation #restoration #environment #biodiversity, #climatechange #human #livelihood #tropical #forestcover #sal #forest #vegetation #tree #upazila #spatialprobability #geostatistics #forestmanagement #planning #policy #urbanplanners #governance #zoning #ecology #habitat -
Mapping Deforestation Probability And Understanding The Forest Dynamics In Gazipur, Bangladesh
--
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2026.101568 <-- shared paper
--
"ABSTRACT: Deforestation is a spiralling environmental catastrophe with impervious results for biodiversity, climate change, and human livelihoods, specifically in tropical regions. Being a tropical country, Bangladesh has experienced approximately 40% loss of its forest cover, at Gazipur since 1930, which contains about 86% of the country's Sal (Shorea robusta) forest, ranging approximately 4,300 hectares per year (2001โ2010) to over 19,500 hectares per year (2011โ2020), exemplifying an intensification of nearly 353%. The objective of this study is to map deforestation probability at the Gazipur district of Dhaka Division, Bangladesh, by utilising machine learning algorithms along with multi-source geospatial data, with the purpose of identifying high-risk zones and facilitating evidence-based forest governance, land-use development, and prioritizing conservation areas. This study integrated twelve conditioning factors, including biophysical, landscape, and anthropogenic. To identify susceptible zones the study trained and assessed five machine learning algorithms; RF, XGBoost, ANN, NB, and MLP and validating the result through different metrics like sensitivity, specificity, precision, accuracy, F1-score, AUC. The performance of the models was evaluated using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests and marginal response curves (MRC) were used to understand factor contributions. In the result, RF achieved highest performance with accuracy of 84% and AUC of 0.93, followed by XGBoost at 83% accuracy and 0.92 AUC. Rainfall and population density were most dominant conditioning factors among models. Pairwise statistical testing resulted that ensemble-based algorithms (RF, XGBoost) generated statistically comparable and significantly higher predictions compared to NB and MLP. Spatial probability maps indicate areas of high and very high risk in the south-western and north-eastern upazilas. The results can be applicable for forest management authorities, urban planners, and policymakers, and correspond with SDG Indicator 15. An inclusive governance framework containing land zoning, ecological area identification, and compliance with industrial EIA is proposed to persuade probability maps into adaptive forest management strategiesโฆโ
#deforestation #probability #machinelearning #algorithms #AI #Gazipur #Bangladesh #GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #rainfall #precipitation #humanimpacts #populationpressure #risk #prediction #RandomForest #conservation #restoration #environment #biodiversity, #climatechange #human #livelihood #tropical #forestcover #sal #forest #vegetation #tree #upazila #spatialprobability #geostatistics #forestmanagement #planning #policy #urbanplanners #governance #zoning #ecology #habitat -
Mapping Deforestation Probability And Understanding The Forest Dynamics In Gazipur, Bangladesh
--
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2026.101568 <-- shared paper
--
"ABSTRACT: Deforestation is a spiralling environmental catastrophe with impervious results for biodiversity, climate change, and human livelihoods, specifically in tropical regions. Being a tropical country, Bangladesh has experienced approximately 40% loss of its forest cover, at Gazipur since 1930, which contains about 86% of the country's Sal (Shorea robusta) forest, ranging approximately 4,300 hectares per year (2001โ2010) to over 19,500 hectares per year (2011โ2020), exemplifying an intensification of nearly 353%. The objective of this study is to map deforestation probability at the Gazipur district of Dhaka Division, Bangladesh, by utilising machine learning algorithms along with multi-source geospatial data, with the purpose of identifying high-risk zones and facilitating evidence-based forest governance, land-use development, and prioritizing conservation areas. This study integrated twelve conditioning factors, including biophysical, landscape, and anthropogenic. To identify susceptible zones the study trained and assessed five machine learning algorithms; RF, XGBoost, ANN, NB, and MLP and validating the result through different metrics like sensitivity, specificity, precision, accuracy, F1-score, AUC. The performance of the models was evaluated using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests and marginal response curves (MRC) were used to understand factor contributions. In the result, RF achieved highest performance with accuracy of 84% and AUC of 0.93, followed by XGBoost at 83% accuracy and 0.92 AUC. Rainfall and population density were most dominant conditioning factors among models. Pairwise statistical testing resulted that ensemble-based algorithms (RF, XGBoost) generated statistically comparable and significantly higher predictions compared to NB and MLP. Spatial probability maps indicate areas of high and very high risk in the south-western and north-eastern upazilas. The results can be applicable for forest management authorities, urban planners, and policymakers, and correspond with SDG Indicator 15. An inclusive governance framework containing land zoning, ecological area identification, and compliance with industrial EIA is proposed to persuade probability maps into adaptive forest management strategiesโฆโ
#deforestation #probability #machinelearning #algorithms #AI #Gazipur #Bangladesh #GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #rainfall #precipitation #humanimpacts #populationpressure #risk #prediction #RandomForest #conservation #restoration #environment #biodiversity, #climatechange #human #livelihood #tropical #forestcover #sal #forest #vegetation #tree #upazila #spatialprobability #geostatistics #forestmanagement #planning #policy #urbanplanners #governance #zoning #ecology #habitat -
Mapping Multifunctionality In Remote Patagonian Forest Landscapes Reveals High-Value Ecosystems Beyond Protected Areas
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03515-x <-- shared paper
--
H/T @Peter Potapov | Researcher at the World Resources Institute (WRI)
โThis paper is] a strong example of multifunctionality analysis applied to conservation planning. The study mapped six ecosystem functions, including carbon storage, nutrient availability, water regulation, erosion control, habitat quality, and ecological connectivity. [The author] combined satellite data, field soil sampling, and spatial modeling for this comprehensive analysis.
Two findings stand out.
1. Old-growth forests had the highest multifunctionality index of any land cover type.
2. 78.5% of the top multifunctionality hotspots fall outside the region's protected areas, even though PAs already cover more than 54% of the territory.
Together, these results make a clear case for expanding conservation of the remaining Intact Forest Landscapes and primary forests in Patagonia and elsewhereโฆโ
--
โRemote forest landscapes provide critical references for understanding ecosystem functions (EFs) under low anthropogenic pressure, yet their capacity to sustain multiple EFs simultaneously remains poorly understood. [They] assessed landscape multifunctionality in western Patagonia by integrating satellite indicators, field data, and spatial modeling. Six EFs (carbon storage, nutrient availability, water regulation, erosion control, habitat quality, and ecological connectivity) were mapped, and their spatial relationships and hotspot distribution within and outside protected areas (PAs) were analyzed. Old-growth and secondary forests showed the highest functional performance. Strong synergies (ฯโโฅโ0.6) between carbon storage and nutrient availability covered >50% of the landscape, whereas strong trade-offs (ฯโโคโโ0.6) were spatially limited (โ<โ6%). Notably, 78% of multifunctionality hotspots occurred outside PAs, indicating that high-functional-value areas extend beyond formal conservation boundaries. These findings reveal spatial mismatches between multifunctionality and protection status and provide a replicable framework for integrating multifunctionality into conservation planning under global changeโฆโ
#Patagonia #chile #aysen #coyhaique #landcover #mapping #spatial #spatialpatterns #spatiotemporal #spatialanalysis #forest #vegetation #oldgrowth #secondgrowth #shrubland #grassland #steppe #ecosystem #habitat #nutrients #water #hydrology #erosion #multifunctionality #multifunctionalityanalysis #protectedareas #landuse #conservationplanning #conservation #ecology #carbonstorage #nutrientavailability #waterregulation #erosioncontrol #habitatquality #ecologicalconnectivity #remotesensing #satellite #earthobservation #modeling -
Mapping Multifunctionality In Remote Patagonian Forest Landscapes Reveals High-Value Ecosystems Beyond Protected Areas
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03515-x <-- shared paper
--
H/T @Peter Potapov | Researcher at the World Resources Institute (WRI)
โThis paper is] a strong example of multifunctionality analysis applied to conservation planning. The study mapped six ecosystem functions, including carbon storage, nutrient availability, water regulation, erosion control, habitat quality, and ecological connectivity. [The author] combined satellite data, field soil sampling, and spatial modeling for this comprehensive analysis.
Two findings stand out.
1. Old-growth forests had the highest multifunctionality index of any land cover type.
2. 78.5% of the top multifunctionality hotspots fall outside the region's protected areas, even though PAs already cover more than 54% of the territory.
Together, these results make a clear case for expanding conservation of the remaining Intact Forest Landscapes and primary forests in Patagonia and elsewhereโฆโ
--
โRemote forest landscapes provide critical references for understanding ecosystem functions (EFs) under low anthropogenic pressure, yet their capacity to sustain multiple EFs simultaneously remains poorly understood. [They] assessed landscape multifunctionality in western Patagonia by integrating satellite indicators, field data, and spatial modeling. Six EFs (carbon storage, nutrient availability, water regulation, erosion control, habitat quality, and ecological connectivity) were mapped, and their spatial relationships and hotspot distribution within and outside protected areas (PAs) were analyzed. Old-growth and secondary forests showed the highest functional performance. Strong synergies (ฯโโฅโ0.6) between carbon storage and nutrient availability covered >50% of the landscape, whereas strong trade-offs (ฯโโคโโ0.6) were spatially limited (โ<โ6%). Notably, 78% of multifunctionality hotspots occurred outside PAs, indicating that high-functional-value areas extend beyond formal conservation boundaries. These findings reveal spatial mismatches between multifunctionality and protection status and provide a replicable framework for integrating multifunctionality into conservation planning under global changeโฆโ
#Patagonia #chile #aysen #coyhaique #landcover #mapping #spatial #spatialpatterns #spatiotemporal #spatialanalysis #forest #vegetation #oldgrowth #secondgrowth #shrubland #grassland #steppe #ecosystem #habitat #nutrients #water #hydrology #erosion #multifunctionality #multifunctionalityanalysis #protectedareas #landuse #conservationplanning #conservation #ecology #carbonstorage #nutrientavailability #waterregulation #erosioncontrol #habitatquality #ecologicalconnectivity #remotesensing #satellite #earthobservation #modeling -
Mapping Multifunctionality In Remote Patagonian Forest Landscapes Reveals High-Value Ecosystems Beyond Protected Areas
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03515-x <-- shared paper
--
H/T @Peter Potapov | Researcher at the World Resources Institute (WRI)
โThis paper is] a strong example of multifunctionality analysis applied to conservation planning. The study mapped six ecosystem functions, including carbon storage, nutrient availability, water regulation, erosion control, habitat quality, and ecological connectivity. [The author] combined satellite data, field soil sampling, and spatial modeling for this comprehensive analysis.
Two findings stand out.
1. Old-growth forests had the highest multifunctionality index of any land cover type.
2. 78.5% of the top multifunctionality hotspots fall outside the region's protected areas, even though PAs already cover more than 54% of the territory.
Together, these results make a clear case for expanding conservation of the remaining Intact Forest Landscapes and primary forests in Patagonia and elsewhereโฆโ
--
โRemote forest landscapes provide critical references for understanding ecosystem functions (EFs) under low anthropogenic pressure, yet their capacity to sustain multiple EFs simultaneously remains poorly understood. [They] assessed landscape multifunctionality in western Patagonia by integrating satellite indicators, field data, and spatial modeling. Six EFs (carbon storage, nutrient availability, water regulation, erosion control, habitat quality, and ecological connectivity) were mapped, and their spatial relationships and hotspot distribution within and outside protected areas (PAs) were analyzed. Old-growth and secondary forests showed the highest functional performance. Strong synergies (ฯโโฅโ0.6) between carbon storage and nutrient availability covered >50% of the landscape, whereas strong trade-offs (ฯโโคโโ0.6) were spatially limited (โ<โ6%). Notably, 78% of multifunctionality hotspots occurred outside PAs, indicating that high-functional-value areas extend beyond formal conservation boundaries. These findings reveal spatial mismatches between multifunctionality and protection status and provide a replicable framework for integrating multifunctionality into conservation planning under global changeโฆโ
#Patagonia #chile #aysen #coyhaique #landcover #mapping #spatial #spatialpatterns #spatiotemporal #spatialanalysis #forest #vegetation #oldgrowth #secondgrowth #shrubland #grassland #steppe #ecosystem #habitat #nutrients #water #hydrology #erosion #multifunctionality #multifunctionalityanalysis #protectedareas #landuse #conservationplanning #conservation #ecology #carbonstorage #nutrientavailability #waterregulation #erosioncontrol #habitatquality #ecologicalconnectivity #remotesensing #satellite #earthobservation #modeling -
GMIA-NEXT - Next-Generation Global Map of Irrigated Areas |
--
https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10085674/v1 <-- shared paper
--
https://zenodo.org/records/17627111 <-- shared open data
--
H/T @kyle Davis
โIrrigation plays a critical role in global food production and climate adaptation and exercises profound influence over humanity's water use. Yet despite its critical importance, there is a persistent lack of understanding of fine-scale irrigation patterns across the planet, knowledge which is essential for informing global food security and sustainability targets. Utilizing either statistical downscaling or remote sensing approaches, existing global irrigation datasets are constrained by coarse spatial resolutions, a lack of timeliness, or varying robustness and reliability. To address this gap, here [they] integrate[d] multi-source Earth observation and environmental datasets and use[d] machine learning to develop a medium-resolution (30 metre) global irrigated area dataset for the 2023/24 growing season. Within existing cropland extent, we leverage a newly compiled set of georeferenced irrigated (N=230,683) and non-irrigated (N=153,194) ground-truth points and integrate seasonal vegetation metrics derived from Landsat 8/9 imagery with agroecological-zone information and hydroclimatic and topographic variables. [They] subsequently develop and evaluate two machine-learning frameworks, a continental Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) tile-based framework and a continental-scale framework, and apply the best-performing approach for each continent. Evaluation using held-out test samples yielded a global accuracy of 80.5 ยฑ 2.1%. The resulting maps were also validated against independent global and national irrigation datasets and statistics, demonstrating broad agreement in the spatial distribution of irrigated areas. This approach is robust and reliable because it is built on a harmonized global ground-truth database, incorporates multiple predictors, and is rigorously validated using independent datasets. All code, ground-truth, and data products are freely and publicly available [link above] and can serve as a robust, scale-neutral, and fully reproducible framework for fine-resolution irrigation mapping. These advances provide the critical and long-needed foundation for near-real-time monitoring and early warning systems, and fine-scale land and water resource managementโฆโ
#IrrigatedAreas #Mapping #GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #global #irrigation #water #hydrology #hydrography #waterresources #farming #agriculture #opendata #remotesensing #earthobservation #geomorphometry #AI #machinelearning #LLM #model #modeling #WaterManagement #opendata #AgroEcologicalZone #AEZ #cropland #irrigatedareas #foodproduction #wateruse #humanimpacts #EarthObservation #remotesensing #earlywarning #monitoring #FoodandAgricultureOrganizationFAO #FAO
@FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization -
GMIA-NEXT - Next-Generation Global Map of Irrigated Areas |
--
https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10085674/v1 <-- shared paper
--
https://zenodo.org/records/17627111 <-- shared open data
--
H/T @kyle Davis
โIrrigation plays a critical role in global food production and climate adaptation and exercises profound influence over humanity's water use. Yet despite its critical importance, there is a persistent lack of understanding of fine-scale irrigation patterns across the planet, knowledge which is essential for informing global food security and sustainability targets. Utilizing either statistical downscaling or remote sensing approaches, existing global irrigation datasets are constrained by coarse spatial resolutions, a lack of timeliness, or varying robustness and reliability. To address this gap, here [they] integrate[d] multi-source Earth observation and environmental datasets and use[d] machine learning to develop a medium-resolution (30 metre) global irrigated area dataset for the 2023/24 growing season. Within existing cropland extent, we leverage a newly compiled set of georeferenced irrigated (N=230,683) and non-irrigated (N=153,194) ground-truth points and integrate seasonal vegetation metrics derived from Landsat 8/9 imagery with agroecological-zone information and hydroclimatic and topographic variables. [They] subsequently develop and evaluate two machine-learning frameworks, a continental Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) tile-based framework and a continental-scale framework, and apply the best-performing approach for each continent. Evaluation using held-out test samples yielded a global accuracy of 80.5 ยฑ 2.1%. The resulting maps were also validated against independent global and national irrigation datasets and statistics, demonstrating broad agreement in the spatial distribution of irrigated areas. This approach is robust and reliable because it is built on a harmonized global ground-truth database, incorporates multiple predictors, and is rigorously validated using independent datasets. All code, ground-truth, and data products are freely and publicly available [link above] and can serve as a robust, scale-neutral, and fully reproducible framework for fine-resolution irrigation mapping. These advances provide the critical and long-needed foundation for near-real-time monitoring and early warning systems, and fine-scale land and water resource managementโฆโ
#IrrigatedAreas #Mapping #GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #global #irrigation #water #hydrology #hydrography #waterresources #farming #agriculture #opendata #remotesensing #earthobservation #geomorphometry #AI #machinelearning #LLM #model #modeling #WaterManagement #opendata #AgroEcologicalZone #AEZ #cropland #irrigatedareas #foodproduction #wateruse #humanimpacts #EarthObservation #remotesensing #earlywarning #monitoring #FoodandAgricultureOrganizationFAO #FAO
@FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization -
GMIA-NEXT - Next-Generation Global Map of Irrigated Areas |
--
https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10085674/v1 <-- shared paper
--
https://zenodo.org/records/17627111 <-- shared open data
--
H/T @kyle Davis
โIrrigation plays a critical role in global food production and climate adaptation and exercises profound influence over humanity's water use. Yet despite its critical importance, there is a persistent lack of understanding of fine-scale irrigation patterns across the planet, knowledge which is essential for informing global food security and sustainability targets. Utilizing either statistical downscaling or remote sensing approaches, existing global irrigation datasets are constrained by coarse spatial resolutions, a lack of timeliness, or varying robustness and reliability. To address this gap, here [they] integrate[d] multi-source Earth observation and environmental datasets and use[d] machine learning to develop a medium-resolution (30 metre) global irrigated area dataset for the 2023/24 growing season. Within existing cropland extent, we leverage a newly compiled set of georeferenced irrigated (N=230,683) and non-irrigated (N=153,194) ground-truth points and integrate seasonal vegetation metrics derived from Landsat 8/9 imagery with agroecological-zone information and hydroclimatic and topographic variables. [They] subsequently develop and evaluate two machine-learning frameworks, a continental Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) tile-based framework and a continental-scale framework, and apply the best-performing approach for each continent. Evaluation using held-out test samples yielded a global accuracy of 80.5 ยฑ 2.1%. The resulting maps were also validated against independent global and national irrigation datasets and statistics, demonstrating broad agreement in the spatial distribution of irrigated areas. This approach is robust and reliable because it is built on a harmonized global ground-truth database, incorporates multiple predictors, and is rigorously validated using independent datasets. All code, ground-truth, and data products are freely and publicly available [link above] and can serve as a robust, scale-neutral, and fully reproducible framework for fine-resolution irrigation mapping. These advances provide the critical and long-needed foundation for near-real-time monitoring and early warning systems, and fine-scale land and water resource managementโฆโ
#IrrigatedAreas #Mapping #GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #global #irrigation #water #hydrology #hydrography #waterresources #farming #agriculture #opendata #remotesensing #earthobservation #geomorphometry #AI #machinelearning #LLM #model #modeling #WaterManagement #opendata #AgroEcologicalZone #AEZ #cropland #irrigatedareas #foodproduction #wateruse #humanimpacts #EarthObservation #remotesensing #earlywarning #monitoring #FoodandAgricultureOrganizationFAO #FAO
@FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization -
Watching A #NOAA #Webinar on Flash Droughts
--
https://noaaresearch.webex.com/wbxmjs/joinservice/sites/noaaresearch/meeting/download/9b3e684d45ca47fc9469070eabd9a142?MTID=m2fa4a8af7bd8647fc48619af5eeecb5a <-- shared NOAA Summer Science Series individual webinar
--
https://www.drought.gov/what-is-drought/flash-drought <-- shared NOAA overview technical article
--
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/star/NOAAScienceSeminars.php <-- subscribe to the NOAA Summer Science Series
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00618-0 <-- shared paper
--
https://communities.springernature.com/posts/the-prevalent-life-cycle-of-agricultural-flash-droughts <-- shared technical article (derived from paper above)
H/T @Jeffrey Basara PhD, MBA | Chair and Professor - Department of Environmental, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Massachusetts Lowell | Co-Founder - American Prime Sustainable Solutions
[Flash floods? not TOO hard to conceptualise.
Flash drought? harder to 'get my head around', but H/T / presenter does an excellent job!]
"Not all droughts are the same. In some cases, drought rapidly intensifies at subseasonal to seasonal scales with significant impacts to agriculture and water resources along with the increased propensity for heatwaves and wildfires. Like all droughts, flash drought begins with a precipitation deficit. However, both evaporative demand and soil moisture are critical flash drought variables, and identifying and monitoring the desiccation of the terrestrial surface is key for determining flash drought development and associated impacts. While recent advances in knowledge and monitoring of flash drought have occurred, fundamental questions remain in the state of the science. What are the overall mechanistic relationships between atmospheric demand, evaporative stress, terrestrial desiccation, and precipitation that drive the progression of flash drought? Do regional characteristics of the environment impact the evolution of flash drought? What are the scales of predictability for flash drought? Finally, how will flash drought frequency and intensity evolve in a changing climate system"
--
"Flash drought intensifies rapidly due to changes in precipitation, temperature, wind, and radiation. These changes in the weather increase evapotranspiration and lower soil moisture. Flash droughts can cause extensive damage to agriculture, economies, and ecosystems if they are not predicted and discovered early..."
#water #hydrology #fedscience #publicgood #hydrologicdrought #waterdeficit #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #watersecurity #risk #hazard #humanimpacts #streamflow #riverflow #groundwater #surfacewater #climate #weather #climatechange #extremeweather #atmosphere #metrology #regional #global #farming #agriculture #fluvial #pluvial #rainfall #precipitation #cloudcover #energy #heat #temperature #ET #evapotranspiration #farming #agriculture #foodsecurity #waterresources #dynamicsystems #watermanagement #flashdrought #drought #susceptibility #monitoring #prediction #model #modeling
@noaa -
Watching A #NOAA #Webinar on Flash Droughts
--
https://noaaresearch.webex.com/wbxmjs/joinservice/sites/noaaresearch/meeting/download/9b3e684d45ca47fc9469070eabd9a142?MTID=m2fa4a8af7bd8647fc48619af5eeecb5a <-- shared NOAA Summer Science Series individual webinar
--
https://www.drought.gov/what-is-drought/flash-drought <-- shared NOAA overview technical article
--
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/star/NOAAScienceSeminars.php <-- subscribe to the NOAA Summer Science Series
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00618-0 <-- shared paper
--
https://communities.springernature.com/posts/the-prevalent-life-cycle-of-agricultural-flash-droughts <-- shared technical article (derived from paper above)
H/T @Jeffrey Basara PhD, MBA | Chair and Professor - Department of Environmental, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Massachusetts Lowell | Co-Founder - American Prime Sustainable Solutions
[Flash floods? not TOO hard to conceptualise.
Flash drought? harder to 'get my head around', but H/T / presenter does an excellent job!]
"Not all droughts are the same. In some cases, drought rapidly intensifies at subseasonal to seasonal scales with significant impacts to agriculture and water resources along with the increased propensity for heatwaves and wildfires. Like all droughts, flash drought begins with a precipitation deficit. However, both evaporative demand and soil moisture are critical flash drought variables, and identifying and monitoring the desiccation of the terrestrial surface is key for determining flash drought development and associated impacts. While recent advances in knowledge and monitoring of flash drought have occurred, fundamental questions remain in the state of the science. What are the overall mechanistic relationships between atmospheric demand, evaporative stress, terrestrial desiccation, and precipitation that drive the progression of flash drought? Do regional characteristics of the environment impact the evolution of flash drought? What are the scales of predictability for flash drought? Finally, how will flash drought frequency and intensity evolve in a changing climate system"
--
"Flash drought intensifies rapidly due to changes in precipitation, temperature, wind, and radiation. These changes in the weather increase evapotranspiration and lower soil moisture. Flash droughts can cause extensive damage to agriculture, economies, and ecosystems if they are not predicted and discovered early..."
#water #hydrology #fedscience #publicgood #hydrologicdrought #waterdeficit #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #watersecurity #risk #hazard #humanimpacts #streamflow #riverflow #groundwater #surfacewater #climate #weather #climatechange #extremeweather #atmosphere #metrology #regional #global #farming #agriculture #fluvial #pluvial #rainfall #precipitation #cloudcover #energy #heat #temperature #ET #evapotranspiration #farming #agriculture #foodsecurity #waterresources #dynamicsystems #watermanagement #flashdrought #drought #susceptibility #monitoring #prediction #model #modeling
@noaa -
Watching A #NOAA #Webinar on Flash Droughts
--
https://noaaresearch.webex.com/wbxmjs/joinservice/sites/noaaresearch/meeting/download/9b3e684d45ca47fc9469070eabd9a142?MTID=m2fa4a8af7bd8647fc48619af5eeecb5a <-- shared NOAA Summer Science Series individual webinar
--
https://www.drought.gov/what-is-drought/flash-drought <-- shared NOAA overview technical article
--
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/star/NOAAScienceSeminars.php <-- subscribe to the NOAA Summer Science Series
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00618-0 <-- shared paper
--
https://communities.springernature.com/posts/the-prevalent-life-cycle-of-agricultural-flash-droughts <-- shared technical article (derived from paper above)
H/T @Jeffrey Basara PhD, MBA | Chair and Professor - Department of Environmental, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Massachusetts Lowell | Co-Founder - American Prime Sustainable Solutions
[Flash floods? not TOO hard to conceptualise.
Flash drought? harder to 'get my head around', but H/T / presenter does an excellent job!]
"Not all droughts are the same. In some cases, drought rapidly intensifies at subseasonal to seasonal scales with significant impacts to agriculture and water resources along with the increased propensity for heatwaves and wildfires. Like all droughts, flash drought begins with a precipitation deficit. However, both evaporative demand and soil moisture are critical flash drought variables, and identifying and monitoring the desiccation of the terrestrial surface is key for determining flash drought development and associated impacts. While recent advances in knowledge and monitoring of flash drought have occurred, fundamental questions remain in the state of the science. What are the overall mechanistic relationships between atmospheric demand, evaporative stress, terrestrial desiccation, and precipitation that drive the progression of flash drought? Do regional characteristics of the environment impact the evolution of flash drought? What are the scales of predictability for flash drought? Finally, how will flash drought frequency and intensity evolve in a changing climate system"
--
"Flash drought intensifies rapidly due to changes in precipitation, temperature, wind, and radiation. These changes in the weather increase evapotranspiration and lower soil moisture. Flash droughts can cause extensive damage to agriculture, economies, and ecosystems if they are not predicted and discovered early..."
#water #hydrology #fedscience #publicgood #hydrologicdrought #waterdeficit #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #watersecurity #risk #hazard #humanimpacts #streamflow #riverflow #groundwater #surfacewater #climate #weather #climatechange #extremeweather #atmosphere #metrology #regional #global #farming #agriculture #fluvial #pluvial #rainfall #precipitation #cloudcover #energy #heat #temperature #ET #evapotranspiration #farming #agriculture #foodsecurity #waterresources #dynamicsystems #watermanagement #flashdrought #drought #susceptibility #monitoring #prediction #model #modeling
@noaa -
On July 1, 2026, The Company Once Known As Maxar Began Selling 3D Maps Of Earth It Can Refresh Within A Day Or Sharpen To 15 Centimeters, Built Less For People To Study Than For The Autonomous Drones And Weapons That Navigate By Matching Their Cameras Against The Terrain
(Vantor, the American Earth-observation companyโฆ is now rebuilding chosen stretches of the planet as three-dimensional models and delivering them within a day of imaging โ a commercial firstโฆ)
--
https://spacedaily.com/sd-on-july-1-2026-the-company-once-known-as-maxar-began-selling-3d-maps-of-earth-it-can-refresh-within-a-day-or-sharpen-to-15-centimeters-built-less-for-people-to-study-than-for-the-autonomous-dron/ <-- shared technical media article
--
[this post should โ most specifically โ NOT be considered an endorsement of a particular organisation or product]
โข โBuilt for GPS-denied warfareโฆ
โข The 3D twist changes the risk calculusโฆโ
โVantor, the American Earth-observation companyโฆ., is now rebuilding chosen stretches of the planet as three-dimensional models and delivering them within a day of imaging โ a commercial first, the company says, and one aimed as much at autonomous machines as at the analysts and militaries who have always been its customers.
The service, called WorldView 3D, went live on July 1. It draws on a fleet of 10 satellites imaging Earthโs surface at 12-inch (30-centimeter) resolution, according to Space.com. The 3D views are constructed by combining multiple images taken from different orbital angles, then refreshed on a daily cadence โ a speed the company says is impossible to match with aircraft or drones over remote or contested territory.
According to the companyโs launch announcementโฆ the service would enable rapid updates of remote and contested areas, calling it the future of spatial intelligenceโฆ.
The product comes in two tiersโฆ:
โข Standard resolution delivers 20-inch (50 cm) imagery with 13-foot (4-meter) accuracy in all directions.
โข The HD tier tightens that to 6-inch (15 cm) resolution with 10-foot (3-meter) positional accuracy in three dimensions.
Those numbers matter for a specific reason. Traditional 3D mapping โ the kind used by autonomous vehicle companies and defense contractors โ has historically relied on aircraft flights, drone surveys, or LiDAR passes. Those methods produce excellent detail. They also require physical access to the airspace above the target.
Vantorโs pitch is that satellites remove the access problem. A constellation in low Earth orbit passes over hostile territory as freely as it passes over Kansasโฆโ
#GIS #spatial #mapping #military #geoint #geointelligence #remotesensing #LiDAR #elevation #drones #weapons #warfare #conflict #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #imagery #3DModel #earthobservation #satellite #AI #machinelearning #GPS #hostileterritory #risk #hazard #WorldView3D #highresolution #changedetection #spatialintelligence -
On July 1, 2026, The Company Once Known As Maxar Began Selling 3D Maps Of Earth It Can Refresh Within A Day Or Sharpen To 15 Centimeters, Built Less For People To Study Than For The Autonomous Drones And Weapons That Navigate By Matching Their Cameras Against The Terrain
(Vantor, the American Earth-observation companyโฆ is now rebuilding chosen stretches of the planet as three-dimensional models and delivering them within a day of imaging โ a commercial firstโฆ)
--
https://spacedaily.com/sd-on-july-1-2026-the-company-once-known-as-maxar-began-selling-3d-maps-of-earth-it-can-refresh-within-a-day-or-sharpen-to-15-centimeters-built-less-for-people-to-study-than-for-the-autonomous-dron/ <-- shared technical media article
--
[this post should โ most specifically โ NOT be considered an endorsement of a particular organisation or product]
โข โBuilt for GPS-denied warfareโฆ
โข The 3D twist changes the risk calculusโฆโ
โVantor, the American Earth-observation companyโฆ., is now rebuilding chosen stretches of the planet as three-dimensional models and delivering them within a day of imaging โ a commercial first, the company says, and one aimed as much at autonomous machines as at the analysts and militaries who have always been its customers.
The service, called WorldView 3D, went live on July 1. It draws on a fleet of 10 satellites imaging Earthโs surface at 12-inch (30-centimeter) resolution, according to Space.com. The 3D views are constructed by combining multiple images taken from different orbital angles, then refreshed on a daily cadence โ a speed the company says is impossible to match with aircraft or drones over remote or contested territory.
According to the companyโs launch announcementโฆ the service would enable rapid updates of remote and contested areas, calling it the future of spatial intelligenceโฆ.
The product comes in two tiersโฆ:
โข Standard resolution delivers 20-inch (50 cm) imagery with 13-foot (4-meter) accuracy in all directions.
โข The HD tier tightens that to 6-inch (15 cm) resolution with 10-foot (3-meter) positional accuracy in three dimensions.
Those numbers matter for a specific reason. Traditional 3D mapping โ the kind used by autonomous vehicle companies and defense contractors โ has historically relied on aircraft flights, drone surveys, or LiDAR passes. Those methods produce excellent detail. They also require physical access to the airspace above the target.
Vantorโs pitch is that satellites remove the access problem. A constellation in low Earth orbit passes over hostile territory as freely as it passes over Kansasโฆโ
#GIS #spatial #mapping #military #geoint #geointelligence #remotesensing #LiDAR #elevation #drones #weapons #warfare #conflict #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #imagery #3DModel #earthobservation #satellite #AI #machinelearning #GPS #hostileterritory #risk #hazard #WorldView3D #highresolution #changedetection #spatialintelligence -
On July 1, 2026, The Company Once Known As Maxar Began Selling 3D Maps Of Earth It Can Refresh Within A Day Or Sharpen To 15 Centimeters, Built Less For People To Study Than For The Autonomous Drones And Weapons That Navigate By Matching Their Cameras Against The Terrain
(Vantor, the American Earth-observation companyโฆ is now rebuilding chosen stretches of the planet as three-dimensional models and delivering them within a day of imaging โ a commercial firstโฆ)
--
https://spacedaily.com/sd-on-july-1-2026-the-company-once-known-as-maxar-began-selling-3d-maps-of-earth-it-can-refresh-within-a-day-or-sharpen-to-15-centimeters-built-less-for-people-to-study-than-for-the-autonomous-dron/ <-- shared technical media article
--
[this post should โ most specifically โ NOT be considered an endorsement of a particular organisation or product]
โข โBuilt for GPS-denied warfareโฆ
โข The 3D twist changes the risk calculusโฆโ
โVantor, the American Earth-observation companyโฆ., is now rebuilding chosen stretches of the planet as three-dimensional models and delivering them within a day of imaging โ a commercial first, the company says, and one aimed as much at autonomous machines as at the analysts and militaries who have always been its customers.
The service, called WorldView 3D, went live on July 1. It draws on a fleet of 10 satellites imaging Earthโs surface at 12-inch (30-centimeter) resolution, according to Space.com. The 3D views are constructed by combining multiple images taken from different orbital angles, then refreshed on a daily cadence โ a speed the company says is impossible to match with aircraft or drones over remote or contested territory.
According to the companyโs launch announcementโฆ the service would enable rapid updates of remote and contested areas, calling it the future of spatial intelligenceโฆ.
The product comes in two tiersโฆ:
โข Standard resolution delivers 20-inch (50 cm) imagery with 13-foot (4-meter) accuracy in all directions.
โข The HD tier tightens that to 6-inch (15 cm) resolution with 10-foot (3-meter) positional accuracy in three dimensions.
Those numbers matter for a specific reason. Traditional 3D mapping โ the kind used by autonomous vehicle companies and defense contractors โ has historically relied on aircraft flights, drone surveys, or LiDAR passes. Those methods produce excellent detail. They also require physical access to the airspace above the target.
Vantorโs pitch is that satellites remove the access problem. A constellation in low Earth orbit passes over hostile territory as freely as it passes over Kansasโฆโ
#GIS #spatial #mapping #military #geoint #geointelligence #remotesensing #LiDAR #elevation #drones #weapons #warfare #conflict #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #imagery #3DModel #earthobservation #satellite #AI #machinelearning #GPS #hostileterritory #risk #hazard #WorldView3D #highresolution #changedetection #spatialintelligence -
National Water Availability Assessment Data Companion Launches Interactive Map
--
https://water.usgs.gov/nwaa-data/ <-- shared USGS resource link
--
https://water.usgs.gov/nwaa-data/interactive-map/ <-- shared USGS webmap
--
H/T @USGS NWDC
โThe National Water Availability Assessment Data Companion (NWDC) delivers national-scale modeled water data underlying the National Water Availability Assessment Report. The NWDC will be continuously updated to include new data used in future National Water Availability Assessment Reports, with planned reports in 2026 and 2030.
The NWDC also serves information on underlying model methodologies, strengths, and limitations to enable proper use of the dataโฆ
USGS scientific teams develop NWDC models to analyze and represent the complexities of water systems. These models fill gaps where USGS observations are unavailable, covering the conterminous United States (lower 48 states) and soon extending to Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico.
All NWDC datasets currently cover past conditions over multiple decades, and are standardized to 12-digit [WBD] hydrologic unit code (HUC12) watersheds and monthly timestepsโฆโ
#opendata #monitoring #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #fedscience #publicgood #water #hydrology #waterresources #watermanagement #change #model #modeling #USA #NationalWaterAvailabilityAssessment #NWDC #CONUS #USGS #USGS_water
@USGS -
National Water Availability Assessment Data Companion Launches Interactive Map
--
https://water.usgs.gov/nwaa-data/ <-- shared USGS resource link
--
https://water.usgs.gov/nwaa-data/interactive-map/ <-- shared USGS webmap
--
H/T @USGS NWDC
โThe National Water Availability Assessment Data Companion (NWDC) delivers national-scale modeled water data underlying the National Water Availability Assessment Report. The NWDC will be continuously updated to include new data used in future National Water Availability Assessment Reports, with planned reports in 2026 and 2030.
The NWDC also serves information on underlying model methodologies, strengths, and limitations to enable proper use of the dataโฆ
USGS scientific teams develop NWDC models to analyze and represent the complexities of water systems. These models fill gaps where USGS observations are unavailable, covering the conterminous United States (lower 48 states) and soon extending to Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico.
All NWDC datasets currently cover past conditions over multiple decades, and are standardized to 12-digit [WBD] hydrologic unit code (HUC12) watersheds and monthly timestepsโฆโ
#opendata #monitoring #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #fedscience #publicgood #water #hydrology #waterresources #watermanagement #change #model #modeling #USA #NationalWaterAvailabilityAssessment #NWDC #CONUS #USGS #USGS_water
@USGS -
National Water Availability Assessment Data Companion Launches Interactive Map
--
https://water.usgs.gov/nwaa-data/ <-- shared USGS resource link
--
https://water.usgs.gov/nwaa-data/interactive-map/ <-- shared USGS webmap
--
H/T @USGS NWDC
โThe National Water Availability Assessment Data Companion (NWDC) delivers national-scale modeled water data underlying the National Water Availability Assessment Report. The NWDC will be continuously updated to include new data used in future National Water Availability Assessment Reports, with planned reports in 2026 and 2030.
The NWDC also serves information on underlying model methodologies, strengths, and limitations to enable proper use of the dataโฆ
USGS scientific teams develop NWDC models to analyze and represent the complexities of water systems. These models fill gaps where USGS observations are unavailable, covering the conterminous United States (lower 48 states) and soon extending to Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico.
All NWDC datasets currently cover past conditions over multiple decades, and are standardized to 12-digit [WBD] hydrologic unit code (HUC12) watersheds and monthly timestepsโฆโ
#opendata #monitoring #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #fedscience #publicgood #water #hydrology #waterresources #watermanagement #change #model #modeling #USA #NationalWaterAvailabilityAssessment #NWDC #CONUS #USGS #USGS_water
@USGS -
Mapping Sleeping Bees within Their Nest: Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Worker Honey Bee Sleep
--
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4100802/ <-- shared paper
--
H/T Dimitrios A. Karras
โBees are not only very important for all ecosystems... They are very cute too....
However, bee societies are very complex and different sleep patterns exist for the other kinds of bees in the hierarchy..
In general, bees actually sleep, and many species spend around 5-8 hours resting each day, usually at night when they're not foraging.
Some solitary bees have been photographed sleeping inside flowers, where they cling onto the petals or stamens with their tiny legs and sometimes even their jaws.
One of the cutest parts is that tired bees can look almost like they've fallen asleep at work, curled up inside a flower with pollen still covering their bodiesโฆโ
--
โPatterns of behavior within societies have long been visualized and interpreted using maps. Mapping the occurrence of sleep across individuals within a society could offer clues as to functional aspects of sleep. In spite of this, a detailed spatial analysis of sleep has never been conducted on an invertebrate society. [The authors] introduce the concept of mapping sleep across an insect society, and provide an empirical example, mapping sleep patterns within colonies of European honey bees (Apis mellifera L.). Honey bees face variables such as temperature and position of resources within their colony's nest that may impact their sleep. [They] mapped sleep behavior and temperature of worker bees and produced maps of their nest's comb contents as the colony grew and contents changed. By following marked bees, [they] discovered that individuals slept in many locations, but bees of different worker castes slept in different areas of the nest relative to position of the brood and surrounding temperature. Older worker bees generally slept outside cells, closer to the perimeter of the nest, in colder regions, and away from uncapped brood. Younger worker bees generally slept inside cells and closer to the center of the nest, and spent more time asleep than awake when surrounded by uncapped brood. The average surface temperature of sleeping foragers was lower than the surface temperature of their surroundings, offering a possible indicator of sleep for this caste. [They] propose mechanisms that could generate caste-dependent sleep patterns and discuss functional significance of these patternsโฆโ
#bee #insect #hive #sleeping #sleep #patterns #monitoring #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #spatial #mapping #sleeppatterns #behaviour #society #community #honeybees #ecosystem #colony #infrared #remotesensing #temperature #instrumentation -
Mapping Sleeping Bees within Their Nest: Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Worker Honey Bee Sleep
--
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4100802/ <-- shared paper
--
H/T Dimitrios A. Karras
โBees are not only very important for all ecosystems... They are very cute too....
However, bee societies are very complex and different sleep patterns exist for the other kinds of bees in the hierarchy..
In general, bees actually sleep, and many species spend around 5-8 hours resting each day, usually at night when they're not foraging.
Some solitary bees have been photographed sleeping inside flowers, where they cling onto the petals or stamens with their tiny legs and sometimes even their jaws.
One of the cutest parts is that tired bees can look almost like they've fallen asleep at work, curled up inside a flower with pollen still covering their bodiesโฆโ
--
โPatterns of behavior within societies have long been visualized and interpreted using maps. Mapping the occurrence of sleep across individuals within a society could offer clues as to functional aspects of sleep. In spite of this, a detailed spatial analysis of sleep has never been conducted on an invertebrate society. [The authors] introduce the concept of mapping sleep across an insect society, and provide an empirical example, mapping sleep patterns within colonies of European honey bees (Apis mellifera L.). Honey bees face variables such as temperature and position of resources within their colony's nest that may impact their sleep. [They] mapped sleep behavior and temperature of worker bees and produced maps of their nest's comb contents as the colony grew and contents changed. By following marked bees, [they] discovered that individuals slept in many locations, but bees of different worker castes slept in different areas of the nest relative to position of the brood and surrounding temperature. Older worker bees generally slept outside cells, closer to the perimeter of the nest, in colder regions, and away from uncapped brood. Younger worker bees generally slept inside cells and closer to the center of the nest, and spent more time asleep than awake when surrounded by uncapped brood. The average surface temperature of sleeping foragers was lower than the surface temperature of their surroundings, offering a possible indicator of sleep for this caste. [They] propose mechanisms that could generate caste-dependent sleep patterns and discuss functional significance of these patternsโฆโ
#bee #insect #hive #sleeping #sleep #patterns #monitoring #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #spatial #mapping #sleeppatterns #behaviour #society #community #honeybees #ecosystem #colony #infrared #remotesensing #temperature #instrumentation -
Mapping Sleeping Bees within Their Nest: Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Worker Honey Bee Sleep
--
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4100802/ <-- shared paper
--
H/T Dimitrios A. Karras
โBees are not only very important for all ecosystems... They are very cute too....
However, bee societies are very complex and different sleep patterns exist for the other kinds of bees in the hierarchy..
In general, bees actually sleep, and many species spend around 5-8 hours resting each day, usually at night when they're not foraging.
Some solitary bees have been photographed sleeping inside flowers, where they cling onto the petals or stamens with their tiny legs and sometimes even their jaws.
One of the cutest parts is that tired bees can look almost like they've fallen asleep at work, curled up inside a flower with pollen still covering their bodiesโฆโ
--
โPatterns of behavior within societies have long been visualized and interpreted using maps. Mapping the occurrence of sleep across individuals within a society could offer clues as to functional aspects of sleep. In spite of this, a detailed spatial analysis of sleep has never been conducted on an invertebrate society. [The authors] introduce the concept of mapping sleep across an insect society, and provide an empirical example, mapping sleep patterns within colonies of European honey bees (Apis mellifera L.). Honey bees face variables such as temperature and position of resources within their colony's nest that may impact their sleep. [They] mapped sleep behavior and temperature of worker bees and produced maps of their nest's comb contents as the colony grew and contents changed. By following marked bees, [they] discovered that individuals slept in many locations, but bees of different worker castes slept in different areas of the nest relative to position of the brood and surrounding temperature. Older worker bees generally slept outside cells, closer to the perimeter of the nest, in colder regions, and away from uncapped brood. Younger worker bees generally slept inside cells and closer to the center of the nest, and spent more time asleep than awake when surrounded by uncapped brood. The average surface temperature of sleeping foragers was lower than the surface temperature of their surroundings, offering a possible indicator of sleep for this caste. [They] propose mechanisms that could generate caste-dependent sleep patterns and discuss functional significance of these patternsโฆโ
#bee #insect #hive #sleeping #sleep #patterns #monitoring #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #spatial #mapping #sleeppatterns #behaviour #society #community #honeybees #ecosystem #colony #infrared #remotesensing #temperature #instrumentation -
Compound Hydrogeomorphic Cascades And Rapid Upstream To Downstream Hazard Coupling In The Eastern Himalaya
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-52915-8 <-- shared paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-022-00943-z <-- shared paper
--
H/T @Kuldeep Dutta | Geology-Earth Science
โโฆ In hilly regions transitioning rapidly to low gradient alluvial plains, localized hydrometeorological triggers can instantly scale into devastating basin wide disasters. This study dissects the September 2020 cascading hazard in parts of the Arunachal Pradesh-Assam corridor to quantify the rapid coupling between upstream hillslopes and downstream floodplains.
Check out the [attached graphical abstract figure] for an integrated visual workflow of the entire disaster continuum from hillslope failure to floodplain transformation...โ
--
โExtreme precipitation in the Eastern Himalaya is increasingly associated with coupled hillslope-floodplain hazards. This study examines the 17th-18th September 2020 rainfall event in Arunachal Pradesh initiating landslides and its downstream impacts in Assam, India, using multi-sensor satellite data and long-term rainfall records. Sentinel-2 imagery was used to map landslides and debris flows, Sentinel-1 SAR data to delineate flood extent, and IMD gridded rainfall (1996โ2020) to analyse rainfall spell characteristics. The event triggered widespread slope failures, localized landslide damming, and a subsequent breach, generating sediment-laden flows that inundatedโ~โ100 kmยฒ of the Dhemaji floodplain. A backscatter-derived Relative Flood Volume Index (RFVI) indicates spatial variability in inundation intensity, although it does not represent absolute flood volume. Rainfall analysis suggests that antecedent wetness from preceding spells preconditioned slopes, while peak daily rainfall (>โ170 mm dayโ1) initiated landsliding. Power-law scaling shows negligible dependence of intensity on duration (R2 โ 0.0004), whereas cumulative rainfall exhibits a stronger relationship with duration (R2 โ 0.54). These results indicate distinct roles of rainfall intensity and accumulation in controlling landslide initiation and downstream flooding, respectively, highlighting the importance of compound rainfall forcing in rapid hydrogeomorphic cascadesโฆโ
#EarthScience #RemoteSensing #Himalayas #NaturalHazards #ClimateChange #ScientificReports #GeospatialAnalysis #DisasterMitigation #Landslide #trigger #Flooding #massmovement #extremeweather #engineeringgeology #floodplain #innundation #hillslope #fluvial #pluvial #alluvial #sediment #sedimentation #hydrometeorology #ArunachalPradesh #Assam #India #Brahmaputra #risk #hazard #geology #engineeringgeology #remotesensing #earthobservation #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #disaster #hydrogeomorphology #workflow -
Compound Hydrogeomorphic Cascades And Rapid Upstream To Downstream Hazard Coupling In The Eastern Himalaya
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-52915-8 <-- shared paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-022-00943-z <-- shared paper
--
H/T @Kuldeep Dutta | Geology-Earth Science
โโฆ In hilly regions transitioning rapidly to low gradient alluvial plains, localized hydrometeorological triggers can instantly scale into devastating basin wide disasters. This study dissects the September 2020 cascading hazard in parts of the Arunachal Pradesh-Assam corridor to quantify the rapid coupling between upstream hillslopes and downstream floodplains.
Check out the [attached graphical abstract figure] for an integrated visual workflow of the entire disaster continuum from hillslope failure to floodplain transformation...โ
--
โExtreme precipitation in the Eastern Himalaya is increasingly associated with coupled hillslope-floodplain hazards. This study examines the 17th-18th September 2020 rainfall event in Arunachal Pradesh initiating landslides and its downstream impacts in Assam, India, using multi-sensor satellite data and long-term rainfall records. Sentinel-2 imagery was used to map landslides and debris flows, Sentinel-1 SAR data to delineate flood extent, and IMD gridded rainfall (1996โ2020) to analyse rainfall spell characteristics. The event triggered widespread slope failures, localized landslide damming, and a subsequent breach, generating sediment-laden flows that inundatedโ~โ100 kmยฒ of the Dhemaji floodplain. A backscatter-derived Relative Flood Volume Index (RFVI) indicates spatial variability in inundation intensity, although it does not represent absolute flood volume. Rainfall analysis suggests that antecedent wetness from preceding spells preconditioned slopes, while peak daily rainfall (>โ170 mm dayโ1) initiated landsliding. Power-law scaling shows negligible dependence of intensity on duration (R2 โ 0.0004), whereas cumulative rainfall exhibits a stronger relationship with duration (R2 โ 0.54). These results indicate distinct roles of rainfall intensity and accumulation in controlling landslide initiation and downstream flooding, respectively, highlighting the importance of compound rainfall forcing in rapid hydrogeomorphic cascadesโฆโ
#EarthScience #RemoteSensing #Himalayas #NaturalHazards #ClimateChange #ScientificReports #GeospatialAnalysis #DisasterMitigation #Landslide #trigger #Flooding #massmovement #extremeweather #engineeringgeology #floodplain #innundation #hillslope #fluvial #pluvial #alluvial #sediment #sedimentation #hydrometeorology #ArunachalPradesh #Assam #India #Brahmaputra #risk #hazard #geology #engineeringgeology #remotesensing #earthobservation #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #disaster #hydrogeomorphology #workflow -
Compound Hydrogeomorphic Cascades And Rapid Upstream To Downstream Hazard Coupling In The Eastern Himalaya
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-52915-8 <-- shared paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-022-00943-z <-- shared paper
--
H/T @Kuldeep Dutta | Geology-Earth Science
โโฆ In hilly regions transitioning rapidly to low gradient alluvial plains, localized hydrometeorological triggers can instantly scale into devastating basin wide disasters. This study dissects the September 2020 cascading hazard in parts of the Arunachal Pradesh-Assam corridor to quantify the rapid coupling between upstream hillslopes and downstream floodplains.
Check out the [attached graphical abstract figure] for an integrated visual workflow of the entire disaster continuum from hillslope failure to floodplain transformation...โ
--
โExtreme precipitation in the Eastern Himalaya is increasingly associated with coupled hillslope-floodplain hazards. This study examines the 17th-18th September 2020 rainfall event in Arunachal Pradesh initiating landslides and its downstream impacts in Assam, India, using multi-sensor satellite data and long-term rainfall records. Sentinel-2 imagery was used to map landslides and debris flows, Sentinel-1 SAR data to delineate flood extent, and IMD gridded rainfall (1996โ2020) to analyse rainfall spell characteristics. The event triggered widespread slope failures, localized landslide damming, and a subsequent breach, generating sediment-laden flows that inundatedโ~โ100 kmยฒ of the Dhemaji floodplain. A backscatter-derived Relative Flood Volume Index (RFVI) indicates spatial variability in inundation intensity, although it does not represent absolute flood volume. Rainfall analysis suggests that antecedent wetness from preceding spells preconditioned slopes, while peak daily rainfall (>โ170 mm dayโ1) initiated landsliding. Power-law scaling shows negligible dependence of intensity on duration (R2 โ 0.0004), whereas cumulative rainfall exhibits a stronger relationship with duration (R2 โ 0.54). These results indicate distinct roles of rainfall intensity and accumulation in controlling landslide initiation and downstream flooding, respectively, highlighting the importance of compound rainfall forcing in rapid hydrogeomorphic cascadesโฆโ
#EarthScience #RemoteSensing #Himalayas #NaturalHazards #ClimateChange #ScientificReports #GeospatialAnalysis #DisasterMitigation #Landslide #trigger #Flooding #massmovement #extremeweather #engineeringgeology #floodplain #innundation #hillslope #fluvial #pluvial #alluvial #sediment #sedimentation #hydrometeorology #ArunachalPradesh #Assam #India #Brahmaputra #risk #hazard #geology #engineeringgeology #remotesensing #earthobservation #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #disaster #hydrogeomorphology #workflow -
Comparing Multi-Model Mosaic And Multi-Model Combination Methods To Simulate Streamflow Across The Contiguous USA
--
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-3945-2026 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @cyril THEBAULT | Postdoctoral Fellow chez Earth Sciences New Zealand
โ[They] compared different multi-model approaches for streamflow simulation using 78 hydrological models across 559 catchments in the United States. [Their] results show that while multi-model combinations can slightly improve accuracy and reduce uncertainty, no single approach performs best everywhere.
One interesting takeaway is that a carefully selected single model can perform as well as more complex multi-model approaches when it is chosen based on a comparative evaluation rather than simply inherited from legacy operational systems... ๐โ
--
โThe ability to accurately predict streamflow underpins decisions in water management, flood prevention, and sectoral planning. Traditional approaches for streamflow prediction often rely on a single model, thereby overlooking potential benefits from using multiple models. To address this limitation, this study explores alternative methods that select and combine multiple models to enhance streamflow simulations. Specifically, [they] assess[ed] the performance of multi-model mosaic methods that assign a single model to each catchment, and multi-model combination methods that merge multiple models using static or dynamic weighting schemes. The Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE) is used to create an ensemble of 78 hydrological models, which were applied to 544 catchments from the CAMELS dataset across the contiguous United States. Each of the 78 models is calibrated utilizing a composite objective function, calculated as the average of a high-flow and a low-flow performance metric, to cover a wide range of streamflow conditions. Based on [their] selection of lumped FUSE models, the results show that a carefully chosen single model from a larger ensemble can closely approach the performance of more complex multi-model strategies. Among the multi-model approaches, the combination and mosaic methods show broadly similar overall skill, although the combination approaches deliver slightly higher performance and lower sampling uncertainty. However, per-catchment differences persist, indicating that no single multi-model strategy dominates everywhere. This heterogeneity in performance makes it difficult to determine a priori which multi-model method will best represent streamflow in a given catchmentโฆโ
#water #hydrology #streamflow #USA #CONUS #multimodel #simulation #hydrologic #model #modeling #catchments #watermanagement #waterresources #planning #watersecurity #flood #flooding #prediction #FUSE #CAMELS #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal -
Comparing Multi-Model Mosaic And Multi-Model Combination Methods To Simulate Streamflow Across The Contiguous USA
--
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-3945-2026 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @cyril THEBAULT | Postdoctoral Fellow chez Earth Sciences New Zealand
โ[They] compared different multi-model approaches for streamflow simulation using 78 hydrological models across 559 catchments in the United States. [Their] results show that while multi-model combinations can slightly improve accuracy and reduce uncertainty, no single approach performs best everywhere.
One interesting takeaway is that a carefully selected single model can perform as well as more complex multi-model approaches when it is chosen based on a comparative evaluation rather than simply inherited from legacy operational systems... ๐โ
--
โThe ability to accurately predict streamflow underpins decisions in water management, flood prevention, and sectoral planning. Traditional approaches for streamflow prediction often rely on a single model, thereby overlooking potential benefits from using multiple models. To address this limitation, this study explores alternative methods that select and combine multiple models to enhance streamflow simulations. Specifically, [they] assess[ed] the performance of multi-model mosaic methods that assign a single model to each catchment, and multi-model combination methods that merge multiple models using static or dynamic weighting schemes. The Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE) is used to create an ensemble of 78 hydrological models, which were applied to 544 catchments from the CAMELS dataset across the contiguous United States. Each of the 78 models is calibrated utilizing a composite objective function, calculated as the average of a high-flow and a low-flow performance metric, to cover a wide range of streamflow conditions. Based on [their] selection of lumped FUSE models, the results show that a carefully chosen single model from a larger ensemble can closely approach the performance of more complex multi-model strategies. Among the multi-model approaches, the combination and mosaic methods show broadly similar overall skill, although the combination approaches deliver slightly higher performance and lower sampling uncertainty. However, per-catchment differences persist, indicating that no single multi-model strategy dominates everywhere. This heterogeneity in performance makes it difficult to determine a priori which multi-model method will best represent streamflow in a given catchmentโฆโ
#water #hydrology #streamflow #USA #CONUS #multimodel #simulation #hydrologic #model #modeling #catchments #watermanagement #waterresources #planning #watersecurity #flood #flooding #prediction #FUSE #CAMELS #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal -
Comparing Multi-Model Mosaic And Multi-Model Combination Methods To Simulate Streamflow Across The Contiguous USA
--
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-3945-2026 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @cyril THEBAULT | Postdoctoral Fellow chez Earth Sciences New Zealand
โ[They] compared different multi-model approaches for streamflow simulation using 78 hydrological models across 559 catchments in the United States. [Their] results show that while multi-model combinations can slightly improve accuracy and reduce uncertainty, no single approach performs best everywhere.
One interesting takeaway is that a carefully selected single model can perform as well as more complex multi-model approaches when it is chosen based on a comparative evaluation rather than simply inherited from legacy operational systems... ๐โ
--
โThe ability to accurately predict streamflow underpins decisions in water management, flood prevention, and sectoral planning. Traditional approaches for streamflow prediction often rely on a single model, thereby overlooking potential benefits from using multiple models. To address this limitation, this study explores alternative methods that select and combine multiple models to enhance streamflow simulations. Specifically, [they] assess[ed] the performance of multi-model mosaic methods that assign a single model to each catchment, and multi-model combination methods that merge multiple models using static or dynamic weighting schemes. The Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE) is used to create an ensemble of 78 hydrological models, which were applied to 544 catchments from the CAMELS dataset across the contiguous United States. Each of the 78 models is calibrated utilizing a composite objective function, calculated as the average of a high-flow and a low-flow performance metric, to cover a wide range of streamflow conditions. Based on [their] selection of lumped FUSE models, the results show that a carefully chosen single model from a larger ensemble can closely approach the performance of more complex multi-model strategies. Among the multi-model approaches, the combination and mosaic methods show broadly similar overall skill, although the combination approaches deliver slightly higher performance and lower sampling uncertainty. However, per-catchment differences persist, indicating that no single multi-model strategy dominates everywhere. This heterogeneity in performance makes it difficult to determine a priori which multi-model method will best represent streamflow in a given catchmentโฆโ
#water #hydrology #streamflow #USA #CONUS #multimodel #simulation #hydrologic #model #modeling #catchments #watermanagement #waterresources #planning #watersecurity #flood #flooding #prediction #FUSE #CAMELS #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal -
A Scale-Invariance-Based Algorithm Application For Land Surface Temperature Downscaling In Denmark
--
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18132263 <-- shared paper
--
https://zenodo.org/records/20863040 <-- shared open data for downscaled LST dataset for Copenhagen
--
H/T @CLIM4cities
#urbanclimate #downscaling #landsurfacetemperature #LST #AI #machinelearning #scaleinvariance #residualcorrection #Sentinel #Landsat #satellite #remotesensing #earthobservation #CLIM4cities #UrbanClimate #ClimateServices #MachineLearning #ClimateAdaptation #heatwave #temperature #ontheground #Copenhagen #Denmark #impervioussurface #asphalt #roof #concrete #albedo #heatabsorption #mitigation #urban #urbancentre #treecover #vegetation #urbanheatisland #planning #design #hotspots #monitoring #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #model #modeling #usecase #operational #climatechange #extremeweather #evidencebased #adapation #sustainability #urbanplanning #climateresilience #EssentialClimateVariable #ECV
@+ATLANTIC | @Danish Meteorological Institute | @ESA ฮฆ-lab Collaborative Innovation Network | @CLIM4cities -
A Scale-Invariance-Based Algorithm Application For Land Surface Temperature Downscaling In Denmark
--
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18132263 <-- shared paper
--
https://zenodo.org/records/20863040 <-- shared open data for downscaled LST dataset for Copenhagen
--
H/T @CLIM4cities
#urbanclimate #downscaling #landsurfacetemperature #LST #AI #machinelearning #scaleinvariance #residualcorrection #Sentinel #Landsat #satellite #remotesensing #earthobservation #CLIM4cities #UrbanClimate #ClimateServices #MachineLearning #ClimateAdaptation #heatwave #temperature #ontheground #Copenhagen #Denmark #impervioussurface #asphalt #roof #concrete #albedo #heatabsorption #mitigation #urban #urbancentre #treecover #vegetation #urbanheatisland #planning #design #hotspots #monitoring #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #model #modeling #usecase #operational #climatechange #extremeweather #evidencebased #adapation #sustainability #urbanplanning #climateresilience #EssentialClimateVariable #ECV
@+ATLANTIC | @Danish Meteorological Institute | @ESA ฮฆ-lab Collaborative Innovation Network | @CLIM4cities -
A Scale-Invariance-Based Algorithm Application For Land Surface Temperature Downscaling In Denmark
--
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18132263 <-- shared paper
--
https://zenodo.org/records/20863040 <-- shared open data for downscaled LST dataset for Copenhagen
--
H/T @CLIM4cities
#urbanclimate #downscaling #landsurfacetemperature #LST #AI #machinelearning #scaleinvariance #residualcorrection #Sentinel #Landsat #satellite #remotesensing #earthobservation #CLIM4cities #UrbanClimate #ClimateServices #MachineLearning #ClimateAdaptation #heatwave #temperature #ontheground #Copenhagen #Denmark #impervioussurface #asphalt #roof #concrete #albedo #heatabsorption #mitigation #urban #urbancentre #treecover #vegetation #urbanheatisland #planning #design #hotspots #monitoring #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #model #modeling #usecase #operational #climatechange #extremeweather #evidencebased #adapation #sustainability #urbanplanning #climateresilience #EssentialClimateVariable #ECV
@+ATLANTIC | @Danish Meteorological Institute | @ESA ฮฆ-lab Collaborative Innovation Network | @CLIM4cities