#probabilistic — Public Fediverse posts

Clear Cut Logging Can Dramatically Increase Flood Risk
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https://theconversation.com/new-study-finds-clear-cut-logging-can-dramatically-increase-flood-risk-284825 <-- shared technical media article
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2026.123895 <-- shared paper
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H/T @Daniel Pierce | Ramshackle Pictures
“Here is a clear and simple breakdown of some of the latest bombshell findings out of the UBC Hydrology Lab… using a probabilistic framework, known as attribution science in the climate world. [The researchers] studied two watersheds in BC's Okanagan Valley near Summerland. In this area, they found that climate change was actually making the frequency of floods go down, but forest harvesting counteracted the effects of climate change and increased the flood risk by 10-fold (!!!) turning a 20-year flood into a flood that occurs every two years. [The H/T] truly want to know how the BC government and timber industry are responding to this new science internally. They're absolutely silent on it in public as they continue business as usual…”
#Nonstationary #Probabilisticphysics #Foresthydrology #Floodfrequencyanalysis #Snowmelt #Causalinference #flood #flooding #forest #forestry #water #hydrology #OkanaganValley #watershed #BC #Canada #BritishCanada #clearcut #logging #harvesting #practices #climatechange #extremeweather #humanimpacts #caseexamples #floodrisk #risk #hazard #probabilistic #framework #attributionscience #policy #planning
#UniversityofBritishColumbia | #GovernmentofBritishColumbia

Beyond The 100-Year Flood - Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment For King And Pierce Counties Under Future Climate Scenarios
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3231-2026 <-- shared #openacess paper
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[part of my old stomping ground as an engineering geologist]
H/T @Kees Nederhoff
“Flood maps are usually built from a single design storm. For King and Pierce Counties in the Pacific Northwest (USA), [the authors] tried the opposite - simulate 82 years of actual coastal and river conditions (plus 18 synthetic years) with SFINCS and let the statistics fall out cell by cell. That took about 5,400 yearly simulations and 194,000 CPU hours on USGS's Hovenweep HPC. Worth it!
The design-event shortcut turns out to hide a real hazard. A deterministic 10-year event underestimated flood depths by up to half a meter compared to the continuous runs.
The bigger surprise [to the authors] was how one-sided the climate signal is. One metre of sea level rise takes King County's expected annual flooded area from 161 --> 787 hectares, almost a factor of five. Changes in storminess over the same horizon barely register. And somewhere between 100 and 150 cm of SLR, land that never floods today starts flooding fast. If you plan adaptation in Puget Sound, that threshold matters more than any single return-period map.
[They] also propose Expected Annual Flooded Area (EAFA) as a probability-weighted alternative to the binary "inside or outside the 100-year zone" label…”
#USGS #supercomputing #Hovenweep #HPC #coast #coastal #PNW #Seattle #PacificNorthwest #risk #hazard #riskmanagement #model #modeling #CFRM #deterministic #probabilistic #climatechange #extremeweather #fedscience #WA #KingCounty #PierceCounty #WashingtonState #USA #flood #flooding #compoundflooding #floodmaps #SFINCS #storm #weather #climate #climatechange #rainfall #precipitation #sealevel #sealevelrise #SLR #100yearflood #floodhazardmapping #returnperiods #pluvial #fluvial #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #remotesensing #streamgage #history #historicflooding #projections #predictions
#USGS

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment For Taiwan - Updates And Improvements In TEM PSHA2025
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2026.108903 <-- shared paper
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https://www.globalquakemodel.org/product/global-seismic-hazard-map <-- shared (open data) Global Seismic Hazard Map / data
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #seismic #earthquake #catalogues #catalog #resilience #risk #hazard #geology #engineeringgeology #probabilistic #seismichazardassessment #PSHA) #groundmotion #models #modeling #Taiwan #TaiwanEarthquakeModel #rupture #Offshore #seismogenic #structures #opendata #GEM #GlobalSeismicHazardMap #PSHA2025 #national #seismichazard #engineering #infrastructure #subduction #structuralgeology #planning #design #policy #regulations #buildingcodes

@sereeena @pseudonym by the by, I had to try and define the word “probabilistic” for the first time yesterday — someone had, understandably, thought it was a joke word — and luckily I didn’t have to define “probability”.

But without that, I thought maybe #deterministic and #probabilistic are antonyms, opposites. Are they?

I find this article deeply thought-provoking and at times disturbing, for multiple reasons. I am not yet sure what to make out of it, as many parts are very alien to my "feeling of what is right and wrong", while the others are pending more debate, so for now I am just leaving it here for further processing.

https://www.timdavis.com/blog/probabilistic-engineering-and-the-24-7-employee

#AI #LLM #vibe #danger #probabilistic

"Probabilistic Machine Learning", Murphy (2012, 2022, 2023)

MIT licensed PDF drafts published by the author are at https://github.com/probml/pml-book.

As the #PML name suggests, these books present #ML from the #probabilistic perspective—that is, ML presented the right way.

The 2022 and 2023 books (An Introduction and Advanced Topics) are the updated, expanded version of the original 2012 book. The new books provide a comprehensive coverage of ML as it was, circa 2021.

These books are not only comprehensive in the coverage of ML, they are also self-contained in that they provide all requisite mathematical background, without slapping the reader across the face with fine turns of phrases. They are written in an authentic, genuine, heartfelt style, a bit of a rarity amongst AI/ML publications, today. They are, in my view, the most effective self-study guides for upper-level undergraduate students, beginning graduate students, and experienced IT practitioners who aims to study the concepts in depth—they who are dissatisfied with just making shallow API calls.

The older book uses MATLAB, and the newer ones use Python. Naturally! But using probabilistic DSLs—Figaro, Church, Anglican, WebPPL, etc.—with these books maybe even more effective.

#Probabilistic #Computer

https://arxiv.org/html/2601.13229v1

#probabilistic #programming languages

https://github.com/automata/awesome-probabilistic-programming

Probabilistic Modeling Of InSAR-Derived Land Subsidence Hazard In New York City For Transportation Infrastructure Damage Risk Assessments
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2026.105118 <-- shared paper
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#NewYork #NewYorkCity #NYC #GIS #spatial #mapping #subsidence #InSAR #radar #elevation #remotesensing #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #model #modeling #probabilistic #framework #risk #hazard #infrastructure #transportation #subway #highway #roads #airports #LandSubsidence #damage #cost #economics #JFK #LaGuardia #runways #buildings #flood #flooding #floodrisk #sealevelrise #SLR #impacts #lowlying #reclaimed #urban #monitoring #mitigation #maintenance #coast #coastal #delta #sediments #megacity

#Introduction I've been around the Fediverse for a few years, but at some point I ended up abandoning this account 🙈

So... let’s try again.

I teach computer science at VRAIN-UPV (Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain). My research interests include things like explainable and symbolic #AI, #probabilistic #logic programming/term rewriting, #causality, #concurrency, #programming languages, #reversible computing, program #verification, and #debugging.

Outside of work, I'm into #photography and I'm a big #sci-fi fan (books, movies, and TV shows). I also enjoy traveling, cooking, and getting outside for a walk or a run.

Languages: Spanish (native), Catalan, English, and some Italian.

The CEO of this company is total Silicon Valley right wing -pilled, but his tech is fucking solid.

This is the right way to do #AI.. Fuck GPU’s, design the hardware for probabilistic computing from scratch.

Result: 10000x less power required.

This opens the way to me running AI some day: On my own device, without a network connection.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Y28JQzS6TlE

#extropic #tsu #thermodynamic #probabilistic #computing

Building AI Products In The Probabilistic Era https://giansegato.com/essays/probabilistic-era (So many good points! Science not engineering, etc. See also latest post from Jakob Nielsen) #AI #probabilistic #TechChange

Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence — https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.05244
#HackerNews #Probabilistic #Artificial #Intelligence #AI #Research #Machine #Learning #Data #Science

At the fundamental (#quantum) level, Nature is #probabilistic. Much of #computing is about modelling natural phenomena and it relies on semiconductor physics, which is inherently quantum mechanical. Yet, much of present day computing hobbles on #deterministic algorithms.🤷‍♂️

'PGMax: Factor Graphs for Discrete Probabilistic Graphical Models and Loopy Belief Propagation in JAX', by Guangyao Zhou et al.

http://jmlr.org/papers/v25/23-1010.html

#probabilistic #pgmax #pgms

Earthquake Hazard Uncertainties Improved Using Precariously Balanced Rocks
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2020AV000182 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #geomorphometry #probabilistic #seismichazard #analysis #PSHA #groundmotion #earthquake #risk #hazard #naturalhazard #quantitative #fault #faulting #geology #engineeringgeology #empirical #balancedrocks #PBR #California #cosmogenic #10Be #dating #model #modeling #hazardmodel #probability #infrastructure #cost #economics

The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview And Implications
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https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/science/2023-national-seismic-hazard-model-whats-shaking <-- USGS technical article
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https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930231215428 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #earthquake #seismichazard #risk #hazard #shakemap #cost #economics #geology #engineeringgeology #hazardmodel #model #modeling #seismicity #faultruptures #groundmotions #probabilistic #probability #geostatistics #engineering #planning #management #mitigation #NSHM #forecast #infrastructure #publicsafety #hazardassessment #fault #faulting #structuralgeology #intensity #mercalli #buildingcode #design #publicpolicy #shakemap #engineeringrisk #future
@USGS @FEMA

@ScienceCommunicator

Right - so 2 basic ways to look at it:

Each specialty branch comes up with their own perspectives, priorities/hierarchies, and jargon. With few exceptions, they stay in their own lanes and do not mix outside their field/subfield. Their writings are stand-alone, rarely intended to connect back to the greater human knowledge base. They'll tell you exactly what "wet" or "sound" is, based entirely on their tiny-desk world-view.

The other way would be a general model of vibration, perhaps based on quantitative info rather than qualitative. It would incorporate all modes of vibratory phenomena, regardless of mediums, velocities, or other characteristics that were fleshed out by some subfield as critical for their particular context & definitions.

Frequency (Hz) actually would be a good quantitative baseline for this, if it hadn't been exorcised from #quantum mechanics.

The "old QM", as espoused by the founders and historic supporters for the split in Physics, used a semi-classical approach that was later abandoned. Later, Pi was added to E = hf as convenience for some aspects, but frequency generally falls away when you work with quantum states ala Schrödinger. #Time is just an input to QM, and is the #Newtonian, absolute kind. The concepts of frequency & wavelength seem to get in the way of the probabilistic formalism.

IMO, the #probabilistic formalism then gets in the way of a #relativistic completion to quantum theory being developed, though in reality, there is no limit to the imaginative supplemental mathematic epicycles that can be added while still spitting out the same expected answers.

Which brings us to political economy – of course.

Because this turn to defense contracting that the large tech companies have been making is a key part of their revenue model.

Work by Tech Inquiry recently revealed that
the five largest US military contracts to major tech firms between 2019 and 2022
have contract ceilings of $53 billion.

And those are the ones we know of.

Due to the combination of military classification and corporate secrecy
– transparency
– let alone accountability
– is very hard to come by.

The use of #probabilistic techniques to determine who is worthy of death
– wherever they’re used
– is, to me, the most chilling example of the serious dangers of the current centralized AI industry ecosystem,
and of the very material risks of believing the bombastic claims of intelligence and accuracy that are used to market these inaccurate systems.

And to justify carnage under the banner of computational sophistication.

As UN Secretary General Antonio Gutiérrez put it,
“machines that have the power and the discretion to take human lives are politically unacceptable,
are morally repugnant,
and should be banned by international law.”

It’s because of this that I join the
German Forum of Computer Scientists for Peace and Social Responsibility
in demanding that
“practices of targeted killing with supporting systems be outlawed as war crimes.”

Particularly given the very real possibility of a more authoritarian government in the US, where these companies are homed.

A place where the right wing in the country has already broadcast plans to
bring the two major tech regulators in the US
–the Federal Trade Commission and the Federal Communications Commission
–under direct presidential control in the future.

Where four of the top five social media platforms are housed, alongside cloud giants that currently control 70% of the global cloud market.

And where a federal abortion ban is on the right wing agenda,
accompanied by ongoing campaigns of book banning and censorship of LGBTQ resources and expression
already shaping legislation at the state level.

(6/8)

'Learning Non-Gaussian Graphical Models via Hessian Scores and Triangular Transport', by Ricardo Baptista, Youssef Marzouk, Rebecca Morrison, Olivier Zahm.

http://jmlr.org/papers/v25/21-0022.html

#hessian #probabilistic #multivariate

I’ll be at #NeurIPS the coming days. Ping me if you wanna hang out, grab a drink, or talk #probabilistic #machinelearing.

Ant colony optimization algorithms

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ant_colony_optimization_algorithms

"[T]he ant colony optimization #algorithm (ACO) is a #probabilistic technique for solving computational problems which can be reduced to finding good paths through #graphs. Artificial ants stand for multi-agent methods inspired by the behavior of real ants. The pheromone-based communication of biological ants is often the predominant paradigm used."

#Ant #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #Optimization

Protecting The Texas Power Grid From Tropical Cyclones - Increasing Resilience By Protecting Critical Lines
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https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.13793 <-- shared technical article
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #ERCOT #Texas #infrastructure #powersupply #powergrid #powergrids #electricnetwork #extremeweather #climatechange #cyclone #tropicalcyclones #mitigation #risk #hazard #electricalsecurity #energysupply #energysecurity #poweroutages #poweroutage #USA #globalwarming #model #modeling #probability #probabilistic #wind #failure #transmissionlines #transmissionlines #hurricanes #supplyfailures #supplyshortages #outages

'Generic Unsupervised Optimization for a Latent Variable Model With Exponential Family Observables', by Hamid Mousavi, Jakob Drefs, Florian Hirschberger, Jörg Lücke.

http://jmlr.org/papers/v24/22-0359.html

#probabilistic #sparse #variational

I’m in #Vancouver for the next month. If someone wants meet for chats on #probabilistic #MachineLearning, #ProbabilisticCircuits, or #ProbabilisticProgramming feel free to DM me!