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#intelligence — Public Fediverse posts

Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #intelligence, aggregated by home.social.

  1. #Trump has warmly embraced #Xi after “coming to a truce” [capitulating more than the US had prior to Trump’s idiotic meddling] in their short-lived #trade war last year & in spite of differences over the #US #war with #Iran & other tensions….

    Similarly, Trump has [desperately] sought to build his relationship with #Putin, even as #Russia’s leader has persisted in his nearly 5-year-old war with #Ukraine & as Moscow has deepened its #military, #intelligence & diplomatic partnership with #Iran.

  2. IC Brief Morning — 2026-11-13

    Russian intelligence services are operating across diplomatic, espionage, and cyber fronts. Moscow sent GRU and FSB principals to Abu Dhabi to address prisoner swaps and security architecture. A US soldier at NATO's Allied Rapid Reaction Corps was arrested for suspected Russian espionage; UK authorities are unlikely to formally charge the soldier under the National Security Act by November 27, and Russian authorities will likely formally charge the two alleged Polish intelligence agents in Kaliningrad with espionage or treason by mid-December. Low confidence on both reflects single-source reporting. The ARRC arrest demands access reviews; Kaliningrad detainees may be Russian nationals staged for propaganda.

    The incoming Democratic House majority will open oversight confrontations in January over CIA covert action, contractor donations, and Gabbard-era staff cuts, targeting the ODNI legal office the Senate Intelligence Committee will likely staff by advancing Lawkowski's general counsel nomination by mid-December. Congress is unlikely to enact Section 702 reauthorization, standalone or attached, by December 31; the court authorization through March removes the forcing mechanism.

    OFAC is unlikely to announce new sanctions designations explicitly tied to the $6.3 billion Binance theft by December 31, reversing this product's prior assessment. High confidence reflects FBI attribution to TraderTraitor and no reporting of pending Treasury action; wallet designations would signal a shift.

    icbrief.org/icbrief/

    #Intelligence #OSINT #NationalSecurity

  3. IC Brief Morning — 2026-11-12

    US indictments, regulatory reviews, and sanctions targeting Iranian, Russian, and North Korean operations face December deadlines. The DOJ indictment unsealed Tuesday names the IRGC and Kata'ib Hizballah behind 18 spring 2026 European attacks and the RAF Fairford plot; at least one of the three defendants, Mohajeri, al-Hassani, or al-Saadi, is likely to be in US custody or arrested abroad by the end of December, since al-Saadi is already held in New York. High confidence reflects the indictment and near-automatic arraignment.

    A US federal agency or member of Congress will likely announce a formal action on the Alaska LNG surveys, whether an investigation, permit suspension, or hearing request, by December 12; Novatek-steered surveys near the Trans-Alaska Pipeline and an Air Force radar site lacked interagency review. OFAC will likely announce new sanctions designations tied to the October 29 Binance hack or its laundering by the end of December; wallet designations are the indicator to watch.

    Germany's Bundestag will likely pass the intelligence services reform bill by November 20, expanding BND and BfV domestic authorities over Article 13 objections.

    Separately, Israeli authorities will likely announce or confirm closure of the Shin Bet's foreign election-interference file without a criminal investigation by the end of December, removing the legal basis for questioning Arab lawmakers.

    icbrief.org/icbrief/

    #Intelligence #OSINT #NationalSecurity

  4. IC Brief Morning — 2026-11-11

    Russian intelligence operations against NATO span a suspected insider at the Allied Rapid Reaction Corps headquarters and paid Ukrainian proxies conducting arson designed to fracture Polish-Ukrainian solidarity. UK authorities are unlikely to formally charge the arrested US field grade officer under the National Security Act 2023 by November 25. Low confidence reflects gaps in reporting on custody limits and search results. The linchpin is whether Washington pre-empts with domestic prosecution; a custody extension or US charging decision would clarify the timeline.

    Consistent with last edition, Commerce is very unlikely to revoke or suspend any previously granted license for Nvidia H200 sales to a Chinese firm by December 11; the Rubio memo remains the linchpin for any escalation.

    The US-led Military Coordination Group or the Lebanese government is very unlikely to announce an independent verification agreement for LAF operations south of the Litani by December 11, leaving Hezbollah free to rebuild intelligence networks behind civilian cover.

    Separately, DOJ or the Trump administration is unlikely to file for rehearing en banc or certiorari challenging the 4th Circuit's LinkedIn ruling by December 11, since remand offers a faster route to leak-specific metadata.

    icbrief.org/icbrief/

    #Intelligence #OSINT #NationalSecurity

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