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#causalinference — Public Fediverse posts

Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #causalinference, aggregated by home.social.

  1. I’ve been trying to read more carefully about instrumental variables and make up my mind about when IV arguments are scientifically convincing.

    Here's a tension I keep running into:

    Should the scientific question alone determine the causal parameter of interest?

    Or is it legitimate for the target parameter to reflect an interplay between scientific interest and the identifying assumptions we actually find tenable?

    IVs can be difficult to interpret when instruments are weak, who “compliers” are is opaque, exclusion restrictions are debatable, or linear models are used in settings where the true data-generating process may be nonlinear.

    On the other hand, when an entire body of (aspirationally causal) literature rests on methods that try to close backdoor paths, IVs offer a genuinely different identification strategy. That seems valuable for evidence triangulation, even if IV analyses have their criticisms.

    What do you think? Are you a big IV proponent? Are you an IV critic?

    When do you find IV evidence persuasive?

    Some literature I've been reading & re-reading:

    pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/167552

    academic.oup.com/ije/article/4

    pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/

    arxiv.org/abs/2402.09332

    arxiv.org/abs/2402.05639

    #CausalInference #InstrumentalVariables #Econometrics #Statistics #DataScience #HealthPolicy

  2. I’ve been trying to read more carefully about instrumental variables and make up my mind about when IV arguments are scientifically convincing.

    Here's a tension I keep running into:

    Should the scientific question alone determine the causal parameter of interest?

    Or is it legitimate for the target parameter to reflect an interplay between scientific interest and the identifying assumptions we actually find tenable?

    IVs can be difficult to interpret when instruments are weak, who “compliers” are is opaque, exclusion restrictions are debatable, or linear models are used in settings where the true data-generating process may be nonlinear.

    On the other hand, when an entire body of (aspirationally causal) literature rests on methods that try to close backdoor paths, IVs offer a genuinely different identification strategy. That seems valuable for evidence triangulation, even if IV analyses have their criticisms.

    What do you think? Are you a big IV proponent? Are you an IV critic?

    When do you find IV evidence persuasive?

    Some literature I've been reading & re-reading:

    pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/167552

    academic.oup.com/ije/article/4

    pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/

    arxiv.org/abs/2402.09332

    arxiv.org/abs/2402.05639

    #CausalInference #InstrumentalVariables #Econometrics #Statistics #DataScience #HealthPolicy

  3. I’ve been trying to read more carefully about instrumental variables and make up my mind about when IV arguments are scientifically convincing.

    Here's a tension I keep running into:

    Should the scientific question alone determine the causal parameter of interest?

    Or is it legitimate for the target parameter to reflect an interplay between scientific interest and the identifying assumptions we actually find tenable?

    IVs can be difficult to interpret when instruments are weak, who “compliers” are is opaque, exclusion restrictions are debatable, or linear models are used in settings where the true data-generating process may be nonlinear.

    On the other hand, when an entire body of (aspirationally causal) literature rests on methods that try to close backdoor paths, IVs offer a genuinely different identification strategy. That seems valuable for evidence triangulation, even if IV analyses have their criticisms.

    What do you think? Are you a big IV proponent? Are you an IV critic?

    When do you find IV evidence persuasive?

    Some literature I've been reading & re-reading:

    pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/167552

    academic.oup.com/ije/article/4

    pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/

    arxiv.org/abs/2402.09332

    arxiv.org/abs/2402.05639

    #CausalInference #InstrumentalVariables #Econometrics #Statistics #DataScience #HealthPolicy

  4. I’ve been trying to read more carefully about instrumental variables and make up my mind about when IV arguments are scientifically convincing.

    Here's a tension I keep running into:

    Should the scientific question alone determine the causal parameter of interest?

    Or is it legitimate for the target parameter to reflect an interplay between scientific interest and the identifying assumptions we actually find tenable?

    IVs can be difficult to interpret when instruments are weak, who “compliers” are is opaque, exclusion restrictions are debatable, or linear models are used in settings where the true data-generating process may be nonlinear.

    On the other hand, when an entire body of (aspirationally causal) literature rests on methods that try to close backdoor paths, IVs offer a genuinely different identification strategy. That seems valuable for evidence triangulation, even if IV analyses have their criticisms.

    What do you think? Are you a big IV proponent? Are you an IV critic?

    When do you find IV evidence persuasive?

    Some literature I've been reading & re-reading:

    pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/167552

    academic.oup.com/ije/article/4

    pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/

    arxiv.org/abs/2402.09332

    arxiv.org/abs/2402.05639

    #CausalInference #InstrumentalVariables #Econometrics #Statistics #DataScience #HealthPolicy

  5. I’ve been trying to read more carefully about instrumental variables and make up my mind about when IV arguments are scientifically convincing.

    Here's a tension I keep running into:

    Should the scientific question alone determine the causal parameter of interest?

    Or is it legitimate for the target parameter to reflect an interplay between scientific interest and the identifying assumptions we actually find tenable?

    IVs can be difficult to interpret when instruments are weak, who “compliers” are is opaque, exclusion restrictions are debatable, or linear models are used in settings where the true data-generating process may be nonlinear.

    On the other hand, when an entire body of (aspirationally causal) literature rests on methods that try to close backdoor paths, IVs offer a genuinely different identification strategy. That seems valuable for evidence triangulation, even if IV analyses have their criticisms.

    What do you think? Are you a big IV proponent? Are you an IV critic?

    When do you find IV evidence persuasive?

    Some literature I've been reading & re-reading:

    pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/167552

    academic.oup.com/ije/article/4

    pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/

    arxiv.org/abs/2402.09332

    arxiv.org/abs/2402.05639

    #CausalInference #InstrumentalVariables #Econometrics #Statistics #DataScience #HealthPolicy

  6. Correlation patterns can shift the moment the world changes. Data science that doesn't grapple with causal inference is just sophisticated curve-fitting, mistaking pattern recognition for true understanding. Without causality, models are brittle and explanations are hollow. #datascience #causalinference #statistics

  7. Correlation patterns can shift the moment the world changes. Data science that doesn't grapple with causal inference is just sophisticated curve-fitting, mistaking pattern recognition for true understanding. Without causality, models are brittle and explanations are hollow. #datascience #causalinference #statistics

  8. Correlation patterns can shift the moment the world changes. Data science that doesn't grapple with causal inference is just sophisticated curve-fitting, mistaking pattern recognition for true understanding. Without causality, models are brittle and explanations are hollow. #datascience #causalinference #statistics

  9. On FTL and causality: add new time. Light vortices look a lot like a light cone on a time-space diagram to me.

    Do photons have spin...? Long Covid sucks.

    While we all live in a money-obsessed hellscape, nothing needs "utility" to be worth testing or knowing.

    youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

    #Summary #Precis #Abstract #Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

  10. On FTL and causality: add new time. Light vortices look a lot like a light cone on a time-space diagram to me.

    Do photons have spin...? Long Covid sucks.

    While we all live in a money-obsessed hellscape, nothing needs "utility" to be worth testing or knowing.

    youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

    #Summary #Precis #Abstract #Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

  11. On FTL and causality: add new time. Light vortices look a lot like a light cone on a time-space diagram to me.

    Do photons have spin...? Long Covid sucks.

    While we all live in a money-obsessed hellscape, nothing needs "utility" to be worth testing or knowing.

    youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

    #Summary #Precis #Abstract #Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

  12. On FTL and causality: add new time. Light vortices look a lot like a light cone on a time-space diagram to me.

    Do photons have spin...? Long Covid sucks.

    While we all live in a money-obsessed hellscape, nothing needs "utility" to be worth testing or knowing.

    youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

    #Summary #Precis #Abstract #Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

  13. On FTL and causality: add new time. Light vortices look a lot like a light cone on a time-space diagram to me.

    Do photons have spin...? Long Covid sucks.

    While we all live in a money-obsessed hellscape, nothing needs "utility" to be worth testing or knowing.

    youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

    #Summary #Precis #Abstract #Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

  14. But yeah, I am confused about the polaritons. 
    (Polaritrons? I'm not hearing stuff / processing audio precisely, lately. ) Light has a shape? Or, like, a shape in time? Cuz that -3, -2, -1, 0, +1, +2, +3 image looks a lot like a light cone on a time-space diagram. To me, at least. The things with the light at diagonal lines in space.

    Wait. Spin? Do photons have spin? I'm gonna get a used copy of my uni textbook off someone and try to remember anything. Yaaay Long Covid! (Twice, Doubled, or Squared! Per your preference.)

    youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

    #Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

  15. But yeah, I am confused about the polaritons. 
    (Polaritrons? I'm not hearing stuff / processing audio precisely, lately. ) Light has a shape? Or, like, a shape in time? Cuz that -3, -2, -1, 0, +1, +2, +3 image looks a lot like a light cone on a time-space diagram. To me, at least. The things with the light at diagonal lines in space.

    Wait. Spin? Do photons have spin? I'm gonna get a used copy of my uni textbook off someone and try to remember anything. Yaaay Long Covid! (Twice, Doubled, or Squared! Per your preference.)

    youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

    #Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

  16. But yeah, I am confused about the polaritons. 
    (Polaritrons? I'm not hearing stuff / processing audio precisely, lately. ) Light has a shape? Or, like, a shape in time? Cuz that -3, -2, -1, 0, +1, +2, +3 image looks a lot like a light cone on a time-space diagram. To me, at least. The things with the light at diagonal lines in space.

    Wait. Spin? Do photons have spin? I'm gonna get a used copy of my uni textbook off someone and try to remember anything. Yaaay Long Covid! (Twice, Doubled, or Squared! Per your preference.)

    youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

    #Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

  17. But yeah, I am confused about the polaritons. 
    (Polaritrons? I'm not hearing stuff / processing audio precisely, lately. ) Light has a shape? Or, like, a shape in time? Cuz that -3, -2, -1, 0, +1, +2, +3 image looks a lot like a light cone on a time-space diagram. To me, at least. The things with the light at diagonal lines in space.

    Wait. Spin? Do photons have spin? I'm gonna get a used copy of my uni textbook off someone and try to remember anything. Yaaay Long Covid! (Twice, Doubled, or Squared! Per your preference.)

    youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

    #Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

  18. But yeah, I am confused about the polaritons. 
    (Polaritrons? I'm not hearing stuff / processing audio precisely, lately. ) Light has a shape? Or, like, a shape in time? Cuz that -3, -2, -1, 0, +1, +2, +3 image looks a lot like a light cone on a time-space diagram. To me, at least. The things with the light at diagonal lines in space.

    Wait. Spin? Do photons have spin? I'm gonna get a used copy of my uni textbook off someone and try to remember anything. Yaaay Long Covid! (Twice, Doubled, or Squared! Per your preference.)

    youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

    #Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

  19. On how faster-than-light info would affect (our understanding of) causality: "And then nothing makes sense anymore." Since when has science stopped testing things that seemed "unintuitive" on the first pass? 
    Wouldn't that just sort itself out, and then we'd make new inferences to test? Cuz it sounds like an additional dimension of time would be useful here. Which... is probably a meme. "Just add a new dimension!" Ok yeah, but what if we did tho. (Eddie Woo intensifies.)

    youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

    #Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

  20. On how faster-than-light info would affect (our understanding of) causality: "And then nothing makes sense anymore." Since when has science stopped testing things that seemed "unintuitive" on the first pass? 
    Wouldn't that just sort itself out, and then we'd make new inferences to test? Cuz it sounds like an additional dimension of time would be useful here. Which... is probably a meme. "Just add a new dimension!" Ok yeah, but what if we did tho. (Eddie Woo intensifies.)

    youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

    #Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

  21. On how faster-than-light info would affect (our understanding of) causality: "And then nothing makes sense anymore." Since when has science stopped testing things that seemed "unintuitive" on the first pass? 
    Wouldn't that just sort itself out, and then we'd make new inferences to test? Cuz it sounds like an additional dimension of time would be useful here. Which... is probably a meme. "Just add a new dimension!" Ok yeah, but what if we did tho. (Eddie Woo intensifies.)

    youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

    #Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

  22. On how faster-than-light info would affect (our understanding of) causality: "And then nothing makes sense anymore." Since when has science stopped testing things that seemed "unintuitive" on the first pass? 
    Wouldn't that just sort itself out, and then we'd make new inferences to test? Cuz it sounds like an additional dimension of time would be useful here. Which... is probably a meme. "Just add a new dimension!" Ok yeah, but what if we did tho. (Eddie Woo intensifies.)

    youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

    #Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

  23. On how faster-than-light info would affect (our understanding of) causality: "And then nothing makes sense anymore." Since when has science stopped testing things that seemed "unintuitive" on the first pass? 
    Wouldn't that just sort itself out, and then we'd make new inferences to test? Cuz it sounds like an additional dimension of time would be useful here. Which... is probably a meme. "Just add a new dimension!" Ok yeah, but what if we did tho. (Eddie Woo intensifies.)

    youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

    #Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

  24. New study uses causal analysis to demonstrate big reductions in carbon emissions if fewer bovines.
    In ten years, methane emissions from all activities if bovine stop would be 80 % of methane emissions from all activities if no intervention.
    Results and causation are presented at doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19019693

    #carbon #causality #causalInference #causation #confounding #counterFactuals #emissions #GHG #methane #offPolicy #policy #publicPolicy

  25. New study uses causal analysis to demonstrate big reductions in carbon emissions if fewer bovines.
    In ten years, methane emissions from all activities if bovine stop would be 80 % of methane emissions from all activities if no intervention.
    Results and causation are presented at doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19019693

    #carbon #causality #causalInference #causation #confounding #counterFactuals #emissions #GHG #methane #offPolicy #policy #publicPolicy

  26. New study uses causal analysis to demonstrate big reductions in carbon emissions if fewer bovines.
    In ten years, methane emissions from all activities if bovine stop would be 80 % of methane emissions from all activities if no intervention.
    Results and causation are presented at doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19019693

    #carbon #causality #causalInference #causation #confounding #counterFactuals #emissions #GHG #methane #offPolicy #policy #publicPolicy

  27. New study uses causal analysis to demonstrate big reductions in carbon emissions if fewer bovines.
    In ten years, methane emissions from all activities if bovine stop would be 80 % of methane emissions from all activities if no intervention.
    Results and causation are presented at doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19019693

  28. New study uses causal analysis to demonstrate big reductions in carbon emissions if fewer bovines.
    In ten years, methane emissions from all activities if bovine stop would be 80 % of methane emissions from all activities if no intervention.
    Results and causation are presented at doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19019693

    #carbon #causality #causalInference #causation #confounding #counterFactuals #emissions #GHG #methane #offPolicy #policy #publicPolicy