#floodrisk — Public Fediverse posts on home.social

💧🌏 Greg Cocks @[email protected] · 2026-08-18 · 02:56 UTC

The Portrait of Flood Risk in Italy - Past, Present and Future, From 1870 to 2100
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2026GL122987 <-- shared paper
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“ABSTRACT: Among European countries, Italy ranks as one of the most susceptible to flood risk. While this figure is already substantial, climate change and rapid urbanization in flood-prone areas have been identified as the two main drivers expected to elevate the number of individuals at risk. This study offers a comprehensive assessment of these two drivers of flood risk in Italy over 230 years, from 1870 to 2100, focusing on how they interact to increase risk. Using the large-scale flood risk model RESCUE-FR, [the authors] analyze[d] the population at risk under the 200-year return period scenario to provide a targeted assessment of population risk, how it has evolved in the past, and its projection in the future. [Their] findings indicate that while historical flood risk in Italy has primarily been influenced by population growth and migration into at-risk areas, future projections suggest that climate change will become the dominant driver of flood risk.
PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Italy is one of the European countries most at risk of flooding. This study examines the impact of two risk factors on flood risk in Italy over the long term, from 1870 to 2100: climate change and the evolution of population in areas prone to flooding. Using a large-scale flood risk model, [they] simulated different scenarios for different time periods, such as with and without climate change, to estimate how each factor contributes to the number of people exposed to floods in the past and future. [Their] results show that population growth and migration into flood-prone areas were the main reasons for the increased risk in the past. In the future, however, climate change is likely to become the dominant factor, putting more people at risk. Understanding how these factors interact can help communities to plan more effectively for floods and reduce the number of people affected…”
#flood #flooding #risk #hazard #Italy #Europe #national #history #historic #cost #damage #infrastructure #floodrisk #population #urbanisation #development #climatechange #extremeweather #dominantfactor #floodprone #national #regional #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #model #RESCUEFR #modeling #factors #parameters #drivers #publicsafety

#flood #flooding #risk #hazard #italy #europe

💧🌏 Greg Cocks @[email protected] · 2026-07-02 · 01:32 UTC

Advancing Detailed Flood Hazard Identification in Alberta, Canada - Insights from Two Recent Flood Studies
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https://doi.org/10.3390/w18131592 <-- shared paper
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“The increasing frequency of floods and the severity of their consequences for public safety, infrastructure, and the economy demand improved methods for flood hazard identification. Flood studies that include flood hazard mapping are critical tools for informing emergency response and flood recovery, as well as for land use and mitigation planning. The methodology for such flood studies has evolved, and access to more powerful computational resources and high-resolution base data has contributed to the increased use of two-dimensional hydraulic modelling, where one-dimensional modelling previously was the default. However, local-scale flood studies face real-world constraints, including sparse data, challenging hydrologic conditions, and budget limitations, which can hinder the application of advanced techniques. This study addresses these challenges through innovative, practice-driven solutions in two case studies in Alberta, Canada: a small, partly channelised prairie stream network (Wolf Creek, Lacombe) and a laterally dynamic river on a distributary delta (Swan River, Kinuso). Three core components of flood hazard studies are described: field survey data collection, regional hydrology assessment, and hydraulic modelling. Key findings include demonstrating that LiDAR-derived terrain models alone cannot capture channel conveyance, the importance of low-flow calibration in the absence of high-water marks, the selection of a modelling methodology based on bathymetric and topographic features within a study area, and the development of inflow hydrographs for unsteady-state simulation in flat floodplains…”
#FloodMapping #FloodRisk #Hydrology #HydraulicModeling #HECRAS #WaterResources #Alberta #Resilience #RiverSurvey #spatialanlaysis #spatiotemporal #floodhazardmapping #HECRAS #model #modeling #remotesensing #LiDAR #bathymetry #floodfrequencyanalysis #unsteadysimulation #FHIMP #FHIP #WoldCreek #Lacombe #SwanRiver #Kinuso #Alberta #Canada #localscale #provincialfloodstudy # prairie #stream #river #flood #flooding #water #hydrology #risk #hazard #watershed #publicsafety #cost #damage #economics #infrastructure #use #practicedriven #floodhazard #survey #hydraulic #terrainmodels #hydrogeomorphology #topography #elevation #floodplain
@Alberta Environment and Protected Areas | @Government of Alberta | @Barr Engineering