#floodrisk — Public Fediverse posts on home.social

💧🌏 Greg Cocks @[email protected] · 2026-08-18 · 02:56 UTC

The Portrait of Flood Risk in Italy - Past, Present and Future, From 1870 to 2100
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2026GL122987 <-- shared paper
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“ABSTRACT: Among European countries, Italy ranks as one of the most susceptible to flood risk. While this figure is already substantial, climate change and rapid urbanization in flood-prone areas have been identified as the two main drivers expected to elevate the number of individuals at risk. This study offers a comprehensive assessment of these two drivers of flood risk in Italy over 230 years, from 1870 to 2100, focusing on how they interact to increase risk. Using the large-scale flood risk model RESCUE-FR, [the authors] analyze[d] the population at risk under the 200-year return period scenario to provide a targeted assessment of population risk, how it has evolved in the past, and its projection in the future. [Their] findings indicate that while historical flood risk in Italy has primarily been influenced by population growth and migration into at-risk areas, future projections suggest that climate change will become the dominant driver of flood risk.
PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Italy is one of the European countries most at risk of flooding. This study examines the impact of two risk factors on flood risk in Italy over the long term, from 1870 to 2100: climate change and the evolution of population in areas prone to flooding. Using a large-scale flood risk model, [they] simulated different scenarios for different time periods, such as with and without climate change, to estimate how each factor contributes to the number of people exposed to floods in the past and future. [Their] results show that population growth and migration into flood-prone areas were the main reasons for the increased risk in the past. In the future, however, climate change is likely to become the dominant factor, putting more people at risk. Understanding how these factors interact can help communities to plan more effectively for floods and reduce the number of people affected…”
#flood #flooding #risk #hazard #Italy #Europe #national #history #historic #cost #damage #infrastructure #floodrisk #population #urbanisation #development #climatechange #extremeweather #dominantfactor #floodprone #national #regional #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #model #RESCUEFR #modeling #factors #parameters #drivers #publicsafety

#flood #flooding #risk #hazard #italy #europe

💧🌏 Greg Cocks @[email protected] · 2026-07-29 · 03:42 UTC

Clear Cut Logging Can Dramatically Increase Flood Risk
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https://theconversation.com/new-study-finds-clear-cut-logging-can-dramatically-increase-flood-risk-284825 <-- shared technical media article
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2026.123895 <-- shared paper
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H/T @Daniel Pierce | Ramshackle Pictures
“Here is a clear and simple breakdown of some of the latest bombshell findings out of the UBC Hydrology Lab… using a probabilistic framework, known as attribution science in the climate world. [The researchers] studied two watersheds in BC's Okanagan Valley near Summerland. In this area, they found that climate change was actually making the frequency of floods go down, but forest harvesting counteracted the effects of climate change and increased the flood risk by 10-fold (!!!) turning a 20-year flood into a flood that occurs every two years. [The H/T] truly want to know how the BC government and timber industry are responding to this new science internally. They're absolutely silent on it in public as they continue business as usual…”
#Nonstationary #Probabilisticphysics #Foresthydrology #Floodfrequencyanalysis #Snowmelt #Causalinference #flood #flooding #forest #forestry #water #hydrology #OkanaganValley #watershed #BC #Canada #BritishCanada #clearcut #logging #harvesting #practices #climatechange #extremeweather #humanimpacts #caseexamples #floodrisk #risk #hazard #probabilistic #framework #attributionscience #policy #planning
#UniversityofBritishColumbia | #GovernmentofBritishColumbia

#nonstationary #probabilisticphysics #foresthydrology #floodfrequencyanalysis #snowmelt #causalinference

💧🌏 Greg Cocks @[email protected] · 2026-07-28 · 05:07 UTC

Busy Beavers - The Turbidity Signature Of Ecosystem Engineers At Work
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https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.70661 <-- shared paper
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H/T @alan Puttock
“Beavers are the quintessential ecosystem engineers. In slow-flowing streams, they create complex wetlands with ponds by building dams and canals that can positively impact biodiversity, hydrology and water quality. These activities can interchangeably capture or release sediment along the watercourse. To date this has not been quantified at the resolution of rainfall events or beaver activity. This study used 15-min frequency, sustained monitoring upstream and downstream of a newly establishing beaver wetland to measure episodic changes in water turbidity at an event resolution. Monitoring showed no significant differences between upstream and downstream turbidity over 160 days when the first pair of beavers, known not to be building dams or canals, were resident. Shortly after introduction of another beaver pair, however, dam building, burrows and canal excavations were quickly observed, resulting in the creation of a complex beaver wetland between 2021 and 2024. Monitoring over 375 days during this period showed significant differences. Downstream turbidity was significantly higher overall than upstream: 13.1 Nephelometric Turbidity Units (NTU) compared to 4.2 NTU. Stochastic spikes in downstream turbidity during the study period not recorded upstream were associated with dam building and burrowing. Overall, there was no significant difference in turbidity loads, which was at least partially explained by a reduction in discharge downstream, particularly in higher flows, during the dam building period. This demonstrates a complex system with the trapping of influent sediment, the storing of water and the periodic release of beaver wetland sediment leading to net balance in loads. These results help provide context for other studies which have used temporally discrete sampling campaigns rather than continuous high-frequency monitoring. They provide a unique insight into the downstream impacts of a rapidly developing beaver wetland over its first three and a half years in a landscape that hasn't had beavers for over 400 years…"
#hydromorphic #water #hydrology #dam #beaverdam #waterquality #biodiversity #ecology #benefits #NatureBasedSolutions #Wetlands #Ecology #Biodiversity #EnvironmentalScience #Wildlife #Ecosystem #bioviversity #conservation #restoration #landscaperecovery #floodmanagement #FloodMitigation #flooding #energy #floodrisk #sustainability #wetlands #hydrography #dams #impoundment #deadwood #waterresources #landscapeengineer #benefits #vegetation #ecology #ecosystem #riversystemsstabilisation #naturalwaterregulation #resilience #valleysreborn #fisheries #invertebrates #extremeweather #floodflows #sediment #baseflow #drought #landmanagement #naturalsystems #landuse #monitoring #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal

#hydromorphic #water #hydrology #dam #beaverdam #waterquality

💧🌏 Greg Cocks @[email protected] · 2026-07-01 · 03:18 UTC

🦫 Could Beavers Help Tackle One Of Climate Change’s Fastest-Growing Challenges? [UK] 🦫
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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/climate-change-beavers-hidden-battle-against-britains-rome-cook-frgve/ <-- shared technical article
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https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx26r1gz1x8o <-- shared media article, “Beavers have helped reduce flood risk…”
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https://www.wildlifetrusts.org/saving-species/beavers <-- shared overview, beavers in the UK
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https://www.npr.org/2026/05/21/nx-s1-5738979/beavers-britain-climate-change-flooding <-- shared media article, “As floods get worse, Britain tries a new solution: beavers”
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https://www.rewildingbritain.org.uk/why-rewild/reintroductions-key-species/key-species/eurasian-beaver <-- shared reintroduction overview
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https://youtu.be/NXZjt1M6loY?si=pwjU0t1GXxGLfNnD <-- shared video, “Watch the moment wild beavers return to Cornwall” [UK]
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https://youtu.be/65HBgO33GDo?si=2qfBAa2Qaz23I81g <-- shared video, “First Beavers in Bedfordshire in over 400 years” [UK]
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https://scottishwildlifetrust.org.uk/our-work/our-projects/scottish-beavers/ <-- shared overview, beaver reintroduction into Scotland
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https://youtu.be/vCjvCQHX7mQ?si=fJS9E1wi0LyDq5Fw <-- shared video, “Scotland Released 11 Beavers Into a Dead River — What They Did With Mud and Sticks Was [amazing]”
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H/T @RomeCook
“In [this] article, [the author] explore[s]:
🌿 How beaver-created wetlands support biodiversity
🦟 Their potential influence on mosquitoes and other insect pests
🕷️ The indirect role they may play in tick ecology
🦇 How dragonflies, bats, birds, amphibians and beneficial insects contribute to natural pest regulation
🚜 What this could mean for sustainable agriculture and agroforestry
🌍 Why this matters for biodiversity, farming, and human and animal health in a changing climate…
The beaver isn’t simply creating wetlands. It may be rebuilding the ecological balance that our landscapes have gradually lost….”
#Beavers #BeaverConference2026 #NatureBasedSolutions #Wetlands #Ecology #Biodiversity #Entomology #IntegratedPestManagement #BiologicalControl #Agroforestry #SustainableAgriculture #ClimateChange #OneHealth #EnvironmentalScience #Conservation #Research #ResearchCollaboration #Wildlife #EcosystemServices #bioviversity #conservation #restoration #landscaperecovery #trophiccascade #Rewilding #Nature #SpeciesReintroduction #Environment #EcosystemEngineers #nature #restoration #floodmanagement #FloodMitigation #flood #flooding #floodrisk #sustainability #wetlands #hydrography #hydrology #dams #impoundment #deadwood #waterresources #landscapeengineer # agriculture #benefits #agroforestry #vegetation #waterquality #ecology #ecosystem #restoration #riversystemsstabilisation #climatechange

#beavers #beaverconference2026 #naturebasedsolutions #wetlands #ecology #biodiversity

💧🌏 Greg Cocks @[email protected] · 2026-06-09 · 15:19 UTC

Study Highlights Growing Importance Of Multi-Day Storms In Future U.S. Flood Risk
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https://news.okstate.edu/articles/engineering-architecture-technology/2026/study-highlights-growing-importance-of-multi-day-storms-in-future-u.s.-flood-risk <-- shared technical article
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https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ae4f14 <-- shared paper
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“Extreme rainfall is projected to intensify as the climate warms, yet whether the greatest increases will occur in multi-day or single-day events remains uncertain. This knowledge gap is particularly pressing given recent catastrophic floods triggered by multi-day rainfall events, prompting the question of whether multi-day events could, in fact, intensify more than their daily counterparts, and by how much. This study addresses this question using an ensemble of 34 downscaled Earth System Models under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), focusing on changes in extreme rainfall by the end of the century across ten regions of the contiguous United States. [Their] statistical framework evaluates model agreement, ensemble-mean changes, and the significance of these changes for both daily and multi-day rainfall extremes. Results show that extreme rainfall amounts are expected to increase for most regions and durations. The degree of intensification, however, depends strongly on event rarity and regional climate characteristics. Notably, in the U.S. western Gulf Coast region, very rare multi-day events (e.g., 500 year return period) are projected to intensify more than their daily counterparts, a phenomenon that could be explained by increased stalling of tropical cyclones, which can prolong heavy rainfall over multiple days. These results challenge the assumption that daily extremes dominate future risk and highlight the need to consider event duration when updating flood-hazard maps, design standards, and adaptation planning…”
#Flooding #FloodRisk #FloodInsurance #FloodAwareness #Explore #FloodPreparedness #FlashFlooding #ClimateResilience #climatechange #extremeweather #DisasterPreparedness #StormwaterManagement #FloodSafety #CommunityResilience #risk #hazard #model #modeling #floodrisk #multiday #rainfall #precipitation #storm #water #hydrology #hydrography #planning #policy #regulations #climatemodel #CONUS #USA #publicsafety #cost #economics #damage #loss #infrastructure #spatiotemporal #spatialanalysis #earthsystemmodels #forecasting #meteorology #designstandards #floodmapping #mitigation #flood