#climatemodel — Public Fediverse posts

Scientists say overlooked climate feedbacks could make global warming 30% worse by 2100

Scientists have found several often-overlooked chain reactions of the climate crisis that could make human-caused warming up to…
#UnitedStates #US #USA #america #climatechange #climatecrisis #Climatemodel #climatesystem #degreesFahrenheit #EnvironmentalDefenseFund #EnvironmentalResearchLetters #Greenhousegasemissions #science #technology #unitedstatesofamerica
https://www.europesays.com/3251491/

https://www.europesays.com/3251491/ Scientists say overlooked climate feedbacks could make global warming 30% worse by 2100 #america #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateModel #ClimateSystem #DegreesFahrenheit #EnvironmentalDefenseFund #EnvironmentalResearchLetters #GreenhouseGasEmissions #science #technology #UnitedStates #UnitedStatesOfAmerica #US #USA

How will #ClimateChange affect the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)?🌧️

🌡️ According to long-term projections, the #ITCZ will narrow due to #GlobalWarming. However, it has shown signs of expansion. #MPIM researchers Jiayu Zhang&Sarah Kang resolved this using a virtual experiment w/ the MPI-ESM #ClimateModel. They show that the ITCZ responds to increased CO2 by initial expansion&long-term contraction. The current widening could persist for several more decades.↔️
🔗:https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aef2833
©️NASA

Hydroclimate Volatility On A Warming Earth
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00624-z <-- shared 2025 paper
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https://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/floods-droughts-fires-hydroclimate-whiplash-speeding-up-globally <-- shared UCLA article, “Floods, Droughts, Then Fires: Hydroclimate Whiplash Is Speeding Up Globally “
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H/T @Daniel Swain
“Hydroclimate volatility refers to sudden, large and/or frequent transitions between very dry and very wet conditions. In this Review, we examine how hydroclimate volatility is anticipated to evolve with anthropogenic warming. Using a metric of ‘hydroclimate whiplash’ based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, global-averaged subseasonal (3-month) and interannual (12-month) whiplash have increased by 31–66% and 8–31%, respectively, since the mid-twentieth century. Further increases are anticipated with ongoing warming, including subseasonal increases of 113% and interannual increases of 52% over land areas with 3 °C of warming; these changes are largest at high latitudes and from northern Africa eastward into South Asia. Extensive evidence links these increases primarily to thermodynamics, namely the rising water-vapour-holding capacity and potential evaporative demand of the atmosphere. Increases in hydroclimate volatility will amplify hazards associated with rapid swings between wet and dry states (including flash floods, wildfires, landslides and disease outbreaks), and could accelerate a water management shift towards co-management of drought and flood risks. A clearer understanding of plausible future trajectories of hydroclimate volatility requires expanded focus on the response of atmospheric circulation to regional and global forcings, as well as land–ocean–atmosphere feedbacks, using large ensemble climate model simulations, storm-resolving high-resolution models and emerging machine learning methods…
#water #hydrology #hydroclimate #whiplash #global #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #weatherwhiplash #ecogeomorphology #sustainability #ecology# ###
#water #hydrology #hydroclimate #volatility #dry #wet #drought #flood #flooding #wildfire #landslide #massmovement #whiplash #global #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #weatherwhiplash #ecogeomorphology #sustainability #ecology #hydrogeomorphology #climatechange #extremeweather #anthropogenicwarming #climate #weather #connection #StandardizedPrecipitationEvapotranspiration #precipitation #rainfall #research #evapotranspiration #risk #hazard #riskassessment #disease #pandemic #publichealth #publicsafety #waterquality #watersecurity #watermanagement #hydrography #atmospheric #regional #global #forcing #climatemodel #model #modeling #AI #machinelearning

Study Highlights Growing Importance Of Multi-Day Storms In Future U.S. Flood Risk
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https://news.okstate.edu/articles/engineering-architecture-technology/2026/study-highlights-growing-importance-of-multi-day-storms-in-future-u.s.-flood-risk <-- shared technical article
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https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ae4f14 <-- shared paper
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“Extreme rainfall is projected to intensify as the climate warms, yet whether the greatest increases will occur in multi-day or single-day events remains uncertain. This knowledge gap is particularly pressing given recent catastrophic floods triggered by multi-day rainfall events, prompting the question of whether multi-day events could, in fact, intensify more than their daily counterparts, and by how much. This study addresses this question using an ensemble of 34 downscaled Earth System Models under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), focusing on changes in extreme rainfall by the end of the century across ten regions of the contiguous United States. [Their] statistical framework evaluates model agreement, ensemble-mean changes, and the significance of these changes for both daily and multi-day rainfall extremes. Results show that extreme rainfall amounts are expected to increase for most regions and durations. The degree of intensification, however, depends strongly on event rarity and regional climate characteristics. Notably, in the U.S. western Gulf Coast region, very rare multi-day events (e.g., 500 year return period) are projected to intensify more than their daily counterparts, a phenomenon that could be explained by increased stalling of tropical cyclones, which can prolong heavy rainfall over multiple days. These results challenge the assumption that daily extremes dominate future risk and highlight the need to consider event duration when updating flood-hazard maps, design standards, and adaptation planning…”
#Flooding #FloodRisk #FloodInsurance #FloodAwareness #Explore #FloodPreparedness #FlashFlooding #ClimateResilience #climatechange #extremeweather #DisasterPreparedness #StormwaterManagement #FloodSafety #CommunityResilience #risk #hazard #model #modeling #floodrisk #multiday #rainfall #precipitation #storm #water #hydrology #hydrography #planning #policy #regulations #climatemodel #CONUS #USA #publicsafety #cost #economics #damage #loss #infrastructure #spatiotemporal #spatialanalysis #earthsystemmodels #forecasting #meteorology #designstandards #floodmapping #mitigation #flood

Multidecadal Reconstruction Of Terrestrial Water Storage Changes By Combining Pre-GRACE Satellite Observations And Climate Data
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https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-1747-2026 <-- shared paper
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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15827789 <-- reconstructed fields and corresponding uncertainty datasets
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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16643628 <-- corresponding time series datasets
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #remotesensing #earthobservation #GRACE #GRACEFO #water #hydrology #hydrography #waterresources #waterstorage #planning #monitoring #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #climatemodel #climatechange #extremeweather #regression #AI #machinelearning #rainfall #precipitation #remperatures #parameters #gravity #geodetic #satellite #orbitography #geomorphometry #DORIS #global #reconstruction #limitations #usecase

Hydrological Response To Climate Change In An Ethiopian Rift Valley Basin - A Multi-Model Ensemble Analysis
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103483 <-- shared paper
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#climatechange #SWAT #multimodelensemble #hydrologicalresponse #water #hydrology #hydrography #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #model #Hamessa #watershed #Africa #EthiopianRiftValley #waterresources #watermanagement #climatemodel #evapotranspiration #ET #groundwater #watersecurity #CausalChainAnalysis #CCA #rainfall #precipitation #extremeweather #drought #wateryield #streamflow #planning #policy #forecasting

Climate Scientists Used the World’s Most Powerful Supercomputers to Find Out if Middle Earth and Westeros Could Actually Exist https://www.byteseu.com/1868327/ #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateModel #fantasy #GlobalWarming #LordOfTheRings #MiddleEarth #westeros

Past And Future Change In Global River Flows
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-025-00745-z <-- shared paper
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#review #water #hydrology #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #waterresources #model #modeling #flow #global #watercycle #humanimpacts #climate #extremeweather #seasonal #dynamics #changes #riverflow #regional #fluvial #pluvial #cryosphere #climatemodel #climatechange #anthropogenic #landuse #watermanagement #model #modeling #terrestrial #ecosystems

"Climate action saves lives. So why do climate models ignore well-being?"

https://phys.org/news/2025-11-climate-action.html?utm_source=mastodon
#physorg #science #climate #climatemodel

🎉 Happy 70th Birthday to our former director Prof. Martin Claussen!

🔭 Martin Claussen, a true pioneer in Earth system research, did groundbreaking work on climate-vegetation interactions. He was the first to successfully couple a #ClimateModel with a vegetation zone model, a prerequisite for modeling climate periods of the past! Learn more: https://mpimet.mpg.de/en/communication/detail-view-news-homepage/martin-claussen-celebrates-his-70th-birthday

Thank you for your dedication, leadership, & unwavering commitment to science. Wishing you the very best!✨

#climatescience #MPIM

🌱 IPSL-CM: Paris-built climate–biosphere integration links LMDZ atmosphere, ORCHIDEE land, NEMO ocean, and PISCES biogeochemistry.

Our updates: enhance ORCHIDEE land processes & develop LMDZ-ORC coupling for sharper climate–carbon feedbacks.

#ClimateModel #IPSLCM #ORCHIDEE #ESM

🌎 ”A great day for climate science”
🙌 Last Friday, #exa_JUPITER—Europe’s first exascale supercomputer, the largest in Europe—was officially inaugurated. We’re super excited as we are among the first users of this fantastic facility with our #ICON #ClimateModel! In a panel discussion, our director Bjorn Stevens emphasized how #ClimateScience benefits from this fantastic infrastructure: https://vimeo.com/1116692844/f41fcf7b06?share=copy
The full recording can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ijHwxnc98n8
📷 © FZ Jülich @fzj

22-Aug-2025
Sea-level projections from the 1990s were spot on, Tulane study says

https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1095672

#science #environment #ClimateCatastrophe #SeaLevelRise #oceans #ClimateModel

Sustained Decrease In Inland East Antarctic Surface Mass Balance Between 2005 And 2020
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01699-z <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #Antarctic #EastAntarctic #icesheet #massbalance #spatialanalysis #model #modeling #spatiotemporal #water #climate #climatedynamics #monitoring #remotesensing #earthobservation #icecore #snowpit #wind #melting #water #ice #science #cryology #snow #weather #watervapour #climatemodel

https://www.oulu.fi/en/news/most-extreme-solar-storm-hit-earth-12350-bc-scientists-identify

@UniOulu Finland utilised their newly developed chemistry– #climatemodel called SOCOL:14C-Ex,…the model confirmed that the detected solar event was ~18% stronger than the notorious AD 775 event — until now the strongest solar storm ever recorded…

“Compared to the largest event of the modern satellite era — the 2005 particle storm — the ancient 12350 BC event was over 500 times more intense, according to our estimates…”

22 people in the monthly #HCLIM meeting - I remember when you could comfortably fit us all around a single home dining table - Europe's common regional #ClimateModel is taking shape nicely...

(https://github.com/HCLIMcom)

A Shorter, Sharper Rainy Season Amplifies California Wildfire Risk
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL092843 <-- shared paper
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090350 <-- shared paper
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[a paper from a few years ago, but very pertinent considering the horrific events in Los Angeles area in early 2025]

#GIS #spatial #mapping #spatiotemporal #spatialanalysis #precipitation #California #WestCoast #USA #LosAngeles #wildfire #LA #LosAngelesfires #losangelesfires2025 #climatechange #rainfall #precipitation #weather #wind #dry #water #hydrology #rainyseason #wildfirerisk #WildfireCrisis #risk #hazard #loss #damage #fire #house #community #publicsafety #autumn #fall #cost #economics #CaliforniaWildFires #vegetation #seasonality #model #modeling #climatemodel

¡AI Caramba!
28 Dec 2024

"Rapid progress in the use of machine learning for weather and climate models is evident almost everywhere, but can we distinguish between real advances and vaporware?"

https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2024/12/ai-caramba/

#climatechange #climatecrisis #climatemodel #machinelearning #AI

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01907-5

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown modulates wind-driven circulations in a warmer climate

Warmer climates weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, causing anticyclonic surface wind anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic, decelerating gyre circulation and affecting Atlantic western boundary currents, according to analysis of fully coupled #climatemodel experiments under #anthropogenicwarming.

#AMOC

Strong Regional Trends In Extreme Weather Over The Next Two Decades Under High- And Low-Emissions Pathways
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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01511-4 <-- shared technical article
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #climatechange #globalwarming #climate #extremeweather #global #regions #ratesofchange #risk #hazard #prediction #model #modeling #numericalmodeling #simulation #geostatistics #climatemodel #tropics #subtropics #emmissions #temperature #precipitation #water #rainfall #hydrology #flood #flooding #wildfire #fire #drought #storms #monsoon #typhons #hurricanes #Asia #Africa

Explore 500 Million Years Of Climate Data Across The Changing Globe With Climatearchive.Org
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https://jeangoldinginstitute.blogs.bristol.ac.uk/2021/08/09/climatearchive-org-540-million-years-of-climate-history-at-your-fingertips/ <-- shared technical article
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https://climatearchive.org/ <-- shared technical resource
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #climate #opensource #climatehistory #openscience #download #webmap #global #visualisation #climatemodel #climatechange #society #ecosystems #environmentalscience #integration #model #modeling #interdisciplinary #climatedynamics #webapplication #paleoclimate #opendata

Another piece of #ClimateModel and #IceSheetModel work presented by colleague Christian Rodehacke, with work from the @[email protected] group using a coupled system to show how the 2 ice sheets might work together and separately in the climate system as also part of @H2020protect.bsky.social
7/9

The great Scandinavian drought of 2018 cost Danish agriculture alone ~ EUR 550million - what are the prognoses for the future?

Great talk by our #NCKF PhD student Rüben Haberli on high res convection permitting #ClimateModel simulations to understand #drought in #Scandinavia
#HCLIM #NMM2024

"Forests moderate local climate by keeping their local environments cool. They do this partly by shading the land, but also by releasing moisture from their leaves. This process, called transpiration, requires energy, which is extracted from the surrounding air, thus cooling it. A single tree can transpire hundreds of liters of water in a day. Each hundred liters has a cooling effect equivalent to two domestic air conditioners for a day, calculates Ellison."

https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-deforestation-affecting-global-water-cycles-climate-change

It's now part of my new #Tegtmeier project: figure out how much eg. European and American land use change has impacted local, regional and continental weather. See above posting where I asked this question, too.

So I plot #treering widths alongside d18O from #speleothem (eg. stalagmite). Both proxies are precisely dated and (can) have annual resolution.

I would expect to see a warming =
trees grow more when, at locations from where "their weather comes", other forests are felled .
And a drying =
d18O increase in speleothems.

I use #GoogleEarth and my rudimentary history knowledge to determine certain locations in Australia, New Zealand, USA and Europe. tbc.🍿

#paleoclimate #ECS #climateModel

Are previous now long-gone biomes factored into regional warming modelling?
A proxy for a 560ppm period from eg., US or Europe necessarily gives diff rain and °C than it will be tomorrow at #560ppm #CO2 with all the previous forests gone.
How different tho?
#Burke et al 2018 is no answer. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1809600115
They modelled climate analogs for warming scenarios on a very high resolution global map. You can look up your location on a map for instance in a RCP4.5 pathway and see the colour-coded analog from past climates at a given CO2 concentration and from 2020 to 2280. Or watch a gif like the one below for RCP4.5.

But they did not factor in the changed hydrological cycle &, so I think, the hence necessarily changed temperature from previously existing biomes that vanished in LUC.
Eg, Aotearoa🇳🇿without forests wouldn't have been named Land Of The Long White Cloud. Tree-less, it would have been warmer and dryer. But proxies only tell us the then-climate with the then-biomes at play.

And since almost all land mass has been changed by humans, regional proxies from past 560ppm periods are no longer valid as analogs.
A Berlin at +6°C in the Eocene would be different to a Berlin at 6°C tomorrow because all the forests from the Atlantic coast to Berlin and beyond have been altered / felled. Which affects the local weather, and even the 250hPa jet. So has far-reaching impacts.

Am I mistaken?
#paleoclimate #ECS #climateModel

Precipitation May Brighten Colorado River’s Future
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https://cires.colorado.edu/news/precipitation-may-brighten-colorado-rivers-future <-- shared technical article
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https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0617.1 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #modeling #model #water #hydrology #waterresources #prediction #climatechange #Colorado #ColoradoR #ColoradoRiver #drought #watersecurity #planning #management #temperature #precipitation #rainfall #snow #snowpack #headwaters #watersheds #USWest #watermanagers #IPCC #LeeFerry #ColoradoRiverCompact #climatemodel #basin #geography #spatialanalysis #vulnerability
@CIRES

This morning's science talk is by my ace DMI colleague Shuting Yang on the plans for #CMIP7 (the next #ClimateModel intercomparison project. Thanks to @steve + colleagues, this is an extraordinary graphic of the size of the effort...

#ClimateDiary

Like a falling calendar leaf in a vintage cinematic calendar montage, here's our weekly release of rolling #ClimateMythRebuttal revisions.

This time it's about confusing climate models with weather prediction. Despite claims to the contrary, imperfect weather prediction skill does not speak to #ClimateModel validity.

Even less helpfully for climate model detractors, with steadily increasing skills climate models are showing distinct promise with seasonal climatic prediction duties.

❔What is the difference between a #regional and #global #climatemodel?

👉Find out in the latest #PolarRES in the Spotlight video about climate models, featuring @ruthprice95, @dr_gilbz and @Ruth_Mottram

Check out the video 🎬👇
https://polarres.eu/polarresnews/polarres-in-the-spotlight-climate-models/

@bas_news
@dmidk

#H2020

I'm not a scientist, but this is how a simulated collapse of AMOC actually looks like. Source link in second reply.

Right axis = Sv = flow of water
Grey line = AMOC

• 150 years = slow reduction in flow from about 12 to 10 Sv
• 100 years = yellow band = collapse of Amoc. It drops roughly from 10 to 2 Sv
• 150 years = slow reduction to zero flow

(1/3)
#Amoc #ClimateModel #Climate

Scientists Uncover Link Between Ocean Weather And Global Climate, Using Mechanical Rather Than Statistical Analysis
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https://phys.org/news/2023-12-scientists-uncover-link-ocean-weather.html <-- shared technical article
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https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adi7420 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #remotesensing #model #modeling #global #model #modeling #numericmodeling #ocean #weather #oceanweather #globalclimate #climatechange #atmosphere #mathematicalmodeling #energytransfer #climatemodel #satellite #earthobservation