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  1. 💧🌏 Greg Cocks @[email protected] ·

    The Portrait of Flood Risk in Italy - Past, Present and Future, From 1870 to 2100
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    doi.org/10.1029/2026GL122987 <-- shared paper
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    “ABSTRACT: Among European countries, Italy ranks as one of the most susceptible to flood risk. While this figure is already substantial, climate change and rapid urbanization in flood-prone areas have been identified as the two main drivers expected to elevate the number of individuals at risk. This study offers a comprehensive assessment of these two drivers of flood risk in Italy over 230 years, from 1870 to 2100, focusing on how they interact to increase risk. Using the large-scale flood risk model RESCUE-FR, [the authors] analyze[d] the population at risk under the 200-year return period scenario to provide a targeted assessment of population risk, how it has evolved in the past, and its projection in the future. [Their] findings indicate that while historical flood risk in Italy has primarily been influenced by population growth and migration into at-risk areas, future projections suggest that climate change will become the dominant driver of flood risk.
    PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Italy is one of the European countries most at risk of flooding. This study examines the impact of two risk factors on flood risk in Italy over the long term, from 1870 to 2100: climate change and the evolution of population in areas prone to flooding. Using a large-scale flood risk model, [they] simulated different scenarios for different time periods, such as with and without climate change, to estimate how each factor contributes to the number of people exposed to floods in the past and future. [Their] results show that population growth and migration into flood-prone areas were the main reasons for the increased risk in the past. In the future, however, climate change is likely to become the dominant factor, putting more people at risk. Understanding how these factors interact can help communities to plan more effectively for floods and reduce the number of people affected…”
    #flood #flooding #risk #hazard #Italy #Europe #national #history #historic #cost #damage #infrastructure #floodrisk #population #urbanisation #development #climatechange #extremeweather #dominantfactor #floodprone #national #regional #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #model #RESCUEFR #modeling #factors #parameters #drivers #publicsafety

    #flood #flooding #risk #hazard #italy #europe