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#sealevel — Public Fediverse posts

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  1. SpaceX plan for vast rocket launch site on Louisiana coast sparks backlash
    By Oliver Milman

    Opponents fear Elon Musk firm’s plan to develop 18-mile strip of Pecan Island will badly damage fragile ecosystem

    theguardian.com/us-news/2026/a

    #Louisiana #SpaceX #USnews #Environment #Sealevel #TheGuardian #OliverMilman

  2. SpaceX plan for vast rocket launch site on Louisiana coast sparks backlash
    By Oliver Milman

    Opponents fear Elon Musk firm’s plan to develop 18-mile strip of Pecan Island will badly damage fragile ecosystem

    theguardian.com/us-news/2026/a

    #Louisiana #SpaceX #USnews #Environment #Sealevel #TheGuardian #OliverMilman

  3. Coastal Flooding At Predictable Hours
    --
    doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-757 <-- shared paper
    --
    H/T @bruna Alves | Nature Communications | Editor
    “When do coastal floods happen? ⏱️🌊
    A new study [link above] shows that, in many tide-dominated coastal regions, flooding tends to occur at specific and recurring times of day. Rather than being completely random, flood events often cluster around predictable hours driven by local tidal patterns.
    By analysing coastal flood observations from the UK and the US, [the authors] show[ed] that the timing of flood events can be highly structured, with some locations experiencing floods disproportionately during certain parts of the day.
    This adds a temporal dimension to coastal flood risk. We often focus on how frequently floods occur, how severe they are, and where they happen. This study highlights that when they occur may also matter, particularly as rising sea levels increase the frequency of coastal flooding.
    The findings provide a useful perspective for coastal adaptation, risk communication, and emergency planning…”
    --
    “Flooding is typically perceived as a sudden and unpredictable hazard. Here, [they] show that recurrent flooding can occur at highly predictable times in tidally dominated coastal systems. This predictability stems from phase-locking of tidal constituents and constituent pairs with the solar day, causing peak tides to recur at consistent local times set by regional tidal propagation. Using tide-gauge records from the United States and the United Kingdom, [they] quantif[ied] the intraday timing of coastal flood events and show strong clustering at specific hours, particularly where semidiurnal or mixed tides dominate. For example, floods in Boston cluster around noon and midnight, whereas in southern California they occur in the morning. Sites with stronger non-tidal variability show weaker clustering. This temporal predictability extends beyond nuisance flooding to larger consequential events involving inundation, road closures and infrastructural damage, highlighting opportunities for anticipatory risk communication, emergency planning and time-sensitive coastal adaptation…”
    #coast #coastal #flood #flooding #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #time #statistics #geostatistics #tide #tidal #timing #temporal #floodrisk #risk #hazard #sealevel #sealevelrise #climatechange #emergency #planning #tideguage #UK #USA #innundation #infrastructure #transportation #riskcommunication

  4. Coastal Flooding At Predictable Hours
    --
    doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-757 <-- shared paper
    --
    H/T @bruna Alves | Nature Communications | Editor
    “When do coastal floods happen? ⏱️🌊
    A new study [link above] shows that, in many tide-dominated coastal regions, flooding tends to occur at specific and recurring times of day. Rather than being completely random, flood events often cluster around predictable hours driven by local tidal patterns.
    By analysing coastal flood observations from the UK and the US, [the authors] show[ed] that the timing of flood events can be highly structured, with some locations experiencing floods disproportionately during certain parts of the day.
    This adds a temporal dimension to coastal flood risk. We often focus on how frequently floods occur, how severe they are, and where they happen. This study highlights that when they occur may also matter, particularly as rising sea levels increase the frequency of coastal flooding.
    The findings provide a useful perspective for coastal adaptation, risk communication, and emergency planning…”
    --
    “Flooding is typically perceived as a sudden and unpredictable hazard. Here, [they] show that recurrent flooding can occur at highly predictable times in tidally dominated coastal systems. This predictability stems from phase-locking of tidal constituents and constituent pairs with the solar day, causing peak tides to recur at consistent local times set by regional tidal propagation. Using tide-gauge records from the United States and the United Kingdom, [they] quantif[ied] the intraday timing of coastal flood events and show strong clustering at specific hours, particularly where semidiurnal or mixed tides dominate. For example, floods in Boston cluster around noon and midnight, whereas in southern California they occur in the morning. Sites with stronger non-tidal variability show weaker clustering. This temporal predictability extends beyond nuisance flooding to larger consequential events involving inundation, road closures and infrastructural damage, highlighting opportunities for anticipatory risk communication, emergency planning and time-sensitive coastal adaptation…”

  5. From Fragmentation To Integration - A Review Of Data–Model Integration In Land Subsidence Research
    --
    doi.org/10.1016/j.ancene.2026. <-- shared paper
    --
    H/T @manonzero current drought conditions, increasing pressure on ecosystems, and ongoing climate adaptation challenges, land subsidence is receiving growing attention worldwide.
    For anyone wanting to learn more about land subsidence, or get a refresher, [the authors] provide an overview of the processes involved, the ways it can be measured or estimated, the models used to simulate it, and how observations and models can be combined, [their] new [#openaccess] review paper [link above] may be of interest!
    A central message of the paper is that understanding and managing land subsidence requires bringing these different sources of information together…”
    --
    “HIGHLIGHTS:
    • Presents a comprehensive synthesis that unifies all major elements of integral land-subsidence research.
    • Defines the methodological steps needed for full integration and positions them within the broader challenges posed by subsidence.
    • Brings together and distills the key components of data, modelling, and integration into a coherent framework.
    ABSTRACT: Land subsidence, the sinking of the Earth’s surface, is a multi-faceted hazard driven by both natural and anthropogenic factors, and poses significant risk to environments, ecosystems, and society. Despite decades of growing research output, substantial gaps persist between investigations on the diversity of causes, reflected in data and model insufficiency. These gaps hinder the understanding of the issue and impede the effectiveness of mitigation measures. Many studies have urged to include all identified subsidence processes acting in a single area in an integral framework, for which a complex analysis has not systematically been outlined before. Therefore, [they] focus here on bridging the gaps between various technical research disciplines involved. [They] stress the urgency for an integral approach that combines observations with subsurface information of all known subsidence processes in an area, and [they] appeal for utilizing them in physics-guided data integrations. Only then can all subsidence drivers be understood, and effective mitigation measures designed. [They] outline the elements for an integral approach in categorical tables and schematized figures, and [they] discuss the main opportunities and challenges in a stepwise workflow. Leveraging these opportunities naturally leads to more robust, scalable, and policy-relevant solutions and fosters a more sustainable future…”
    #Land #subsidence #processes #Verticallandmotion #SLR #sealevel #sealevelrise #relativesealevelrise #modeling #data #model #InSAR #elevation #holistic #GIS #spatial #mapping #climate #drought #extremeweather #climatechange #climateadaption #ecosystems #measurement #monitoring #research #review #framework #overview #risk #hazard #anthropogenic #mitigation #engineering #water #hydrology #policy #planning #design #remotesensing #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal

  6. From Fragmentation To Integration - A Review Of Data–Model Integration In Land Subsidence Research
    --
    doi.org/10.1016/j.ancene.2026. <-- shared paper
    --
    H/T @manonzero current drought conditions, increasing pressure on ecosystems, and ongoing climate adaptation challenges, land subsidence is receiving growing attention worldwide.
    For anyone wanting to learn more about land subsidence, or get a refresher, [the authors] provide an overview of the processes involved, the ways it can be measured or estimated, the models used to simulate it, and how observations and models can be combined, [their] new [#openaccess] review paper [link above] may be of interest!
    A central message of the paper is that understanding and managing land subsidence requires bringing these different sources of information together…”
    --
    “HIGHLIGHTS:
    • Presents a comprehensive synthesis that unifies all major elements of integral land-subsidence research.
    • Defines the methodological steps needed for full integration and positions them within the broader challenges posed by subsidence.
    • Brings together and distills the key components of data, modelling, and integration into a coherent framework.
    ABSTRACT: Land subsidence, the sinking of the Earth’s surface, is a multi-faceted hazard driven by both natural and anthropogenic factors, and poses significant risk to environments, ecosystems, and society. Despite decades of growing research output, substantial gaps persist between investigations on the diversity of causes, reflected in data and model insufficiency. These gaps hinder the understanding of the issue and impede the effectiveness of mitigation measures. Many studies have urged to include all identified subsidence processes acting in a single area in an integral framework, for which a complex analysis has not systematically been outlined before. Therefore, [they] focus here on bridging the gaps between various technical research disciplines involved. [They] stress the urgency for an integral approach that combines observations with subsurface information of all known subsidence processes in an area, and [they] appeal for utilizing them in physics-guided data integrations. Only then can all subsidence drivers be understood, and effective mitigation measures designed. [They] outline the elements for an integral approach in categorical tables and schematized figures, and [they] discuss the main opportunities and challenges in a stepwise workflow. Leveraging these opportunities naturally leads to more robust, scalable, and policy-relevant solutions and fosters a more sustainable future…”

  7. Conventional wisdom for using corals as a paleo sea level indicator says that corals must live below the low tide level. This tidal pool, which has a sill above low tide, seems to break this rule!

    #SeaLevel #coral

  8. Conventional wisdom for using corals as a paleo sea level indicator says that corals must live below the low tide level. This tidal pool, which has a sill above low tide, seems to break this rule!

    #SeaLevel #coral

  9. Quantifying UK Coastal Flood Exposure Under Future Sea-Level Rise To [2100 and] 2300
    --
    doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-749 <-- shared paper
    --
    theguardian.com/environment/20 <-- shared media article
    --
    H/T @University of Bristol School of Geographical Sciences
    “🌊 New research on long-term coastal flooding as a result of climate inaction 🌊
    … The researchers found:
    🔷 By 2100 at least an additional 0.5 million people exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood extent - a 25% increase compared to present day.
    🔷 Under the most pessimistic storyline by 2300 involving significant ice-sheet instability, an additional 13 million people could be exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood event.
    🔷 Under some scenarios there is a need for large-scale movement of populations and settlements away from the coast in the coming centuries…”
    --
    “Up to 13 million people in the UK face the long-term risk of coastal flooding due to the climate crisis, scientists have warned, with a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ suggesting the need for the large-scale movement of populations away from a dramatically reshaped coast…
    Sea level has risen by about 20cm around the UK in the last century and is accelerating. A further 40cm to 60cm by 2100 is already baked in, meaning about half a million more people will be at risk of their homes being flooded, on top of the 2.5 million already in danger near the coasts. Lincolnshire and the Humber estuary are most in danger…”
    --
    “The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report highlighted the potential for more than 15 metres of global sea-level rise by 2300. In this study, [the authors] explore the implications for UK coastal flood exposure by combining national-scale flood modelling with physically-based storylines of UK sea-level rise. By 2100 all storylines show broadly similar results with at least an additional ½ million people exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood extent, which represents a 25% increase compared to present day. Under the most pessimistic storyline by 2300 involving significant ice-sheet instability, an additional 13 million people could be exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood event. This would imply the potential need for large-scale movement of populations and settlements away from the coast in the coming centuries. Given current global emissions pledges, exposure increases by 1.7 million people by 2300, however up to 1 million could be avoided if Paris Agreement targets for greenhouse gas emissions are met…”
    #coast #coastal #innundation #climatechange #global #sealevel #sealevelrise #SLR #flood #flooding #climatechange #population #infrastructure #UK #England #Scotland #Wales #NorthernIreland #Lincolnshire #Humber #estuary #settlement #city #urban #mitigation #planning #policy #infrastructure #risk #hazard #humanimpacts #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #GIS #spatial #mapping #coastalflooding #climatecrisis #model #modeling #elevation #DEM

  10. Quantifying UK Coastal Flood Exposure Under Future Sea-Level Rise To [2100 and] 2300
    --
    doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-749 <-- shared paper
    --
    theguardian.com/environment/20 <-- shared media article
    --
    H/T @University of Bristol School of Geographical Sciences
    “🌊 New research on long-term coastal flooding as a result of climate inaction 🌊
    … The researchers found:
    🔷 By 2100 at least an additional 0.5 million people exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood extent - a 25% increase compared to present day.
    🔷 Under the most pessimistic storyline by 2300 involving significant ice-sheet instability, an additional 13 million people could be exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood event.
    🔷 Under some scenarios there is a need for large-scale movement of populations and settlements away from the coast in the coming centuries…”
    --
    “Up to 13 million people in the UK face the long-term risk of coastal flooding due to the climate crisis, scientists have warned, with a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ suggesting the need for the large-scale movement of populations away from a dramatically reshaped coast…
    Sea level has risen by about 20cm around the UK in the last century and is accelerating. A further 40cm to 60cm by 2100 is already baked in, meaning about half a million more people will be at risk of their homes being flooded, on top of the 2.5 million already in danger near the coasts. Lincolnshire and the Humber estuary are most in danger…”
    --
    “The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report highlighted the potential for more than 15 metres of global sea-level rise by 2300. In this study, [the authors] explore the implications for UK coastal flood exposure by combining national-scale flood modelling with physically-based storylines of UK sea-level rise. By 2100 all storylines show broadly similar results with at least an additional ½ million people exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood extent, which represents a 25% increase compared to present day. Under the most pessimistic storyline by 2300 involving significant ice-sheet instability, an additional 13 million people could be exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood event. This would imply the potential need for large-scale movement of populations and settlements away from the coast in the coming centuries. Given current global emissions pledges, exposure increases by 1.7 million people by 2300, however up to 1 million could be avoided if Paris Agreement targets for greenhouse gas emissions are met…”

  11. Earth’s Hidden Thermostat Has Regulated Climate for 60 Million Years

    For tens of millions of years, Earth’s climate may have been stabilized by a hidden feedback linking sea…
    #NewsBeep #News #US #USA #UnitedStates #UnitedStatesOfAmerica #Science #climatechange #MarineGeology #Paleoclimatology #sealevel #syracuseuniversity
    newsbeep.com/us/786809/

  12. Earth’s Hidden Thermostat Has Regulated Climate for 60 Million Years

    For tens of millions of years, Earth’s climate may have been stabilized by a hidden feedback linking sea…
    #NewsBeep #News #Science #AU #Australia #Climatechange #MarineGeology #Paleoclimatology #SeaLevel #syracuseuniversity
    newsbeep.com/au/824345/

  13. I have posted the video version of episode 8 of the Raised Beaches Podcast. I discuss about the famous paleo sea level scientist, Paolo Pirazzoli, including the work he did in the Ryukyu Islands in Japan.

    #geology #SeaLevel #ClimateChange

    youtube.com/watch?v=WjYN2jzydaw

  14. I have posted the video version of episode 8 of the Raised Beaches Podcast. I discuss about the famous paleo sea level scientist, Paolo Pirazzoli, including the work he did in the Ryukyu Islands in Japan.

    #geology #SeaLevel #ClimateChange

    youtube.com/watch?v=WjYN2jzydaw

  15. Millions face long-term coastal flooding risk in UK without climate action, scientists warn
    By Damian Carrington Environment editor

    A ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ suggests need for large-scale movement of populations away from reshaped coast

    theguardian.com/environment/20

    #Flooding #Climatecrisis #Sealevel #Environment #UKnews #TheGuardian #DamianCarringtonEnvironmenteditor

  16. Beyond The 100-Year Flood - Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment For King And Pierce Counties Under Future Climate Scenarios
    --
    doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3231- <-- shared #openacess paper
    --
    [part of my old stomping ground as an engineering geologist]
    H/T @Kees Nederhoff
    “Flood maps are usually built from a single design storm. For King and Pierce Counties in the Pacific Northwest (USA), [the authors] tried the opposite - simulate 82 years of actual coastal and river conditions (plus 18 synthetic years) with SFINCS and let the statistics fall out cell by cell. That took about 5,400 yearly simulations and 194,000 CPU hours on USGS's Hovenweep HPC. Worth it!
    The design-event shortcut turns out to hide a real hazard. A deterministic 10-year event underestimated flood depths by up to half a meter compared to the continuous runs.
    The bigger surprise [to the authors] was how one-sided the climate signal is. One metre of sea level rise takes King County's expected annual flooded area from 161 --> 787 hectares, almost a factor of five. Changes in storminess over the same horizon barely register. And somewhere between 100 and 150 cm of SLR, land that never floods today starts flooding fast. If you plan adaptation in Puget Sound, that threshold matters more than any single return-period map.
    [They] also propose Expected Annual Flooded Area (EAFA) as a probability-weighted alternative to the binary "inside or outside the 100-year zone" label…”
    #USGS #supercomputing #Hovenweep #HPC #coast #coastal #PNW #Seattle #PacificNorthwest #risk #hazard #riskmanagement #model #modeling #CFRM #deterministic #probabilistic #climatechange #extremeweather #fedscience #WA #KingCounty #PierceCounty #WashingtonState #USA #flood #flooding #compoundflooding #floodmaps #SFINCS #storm #weather #climate #climatechange #rainfall #precipitation #sealevel #sealevelrise #SLR #100yearflood #floodhazardmapping #returnperiods #pluvial #fluvial #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #remotesensing #streamgage #history #historicflooding #projections #predictions
    #USGS

  17. Beyond The 100-Year Flood - Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment For King And Pierce Counties Under Future Climate Scenarios
    --
    doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3231- <-- shared paper
    --
    [part of my old stomping ground as an engineering geologist]
    H/T @Kees Nederhoff
    “Flood maps are usually built from a single design storm. For King and Pierce Counties in the Pacific Northwest (USA), [the authors] tried the opposite - simulate 82 years of actual coastal and river conditions (plus 18 synthetic years) with SFINCS and let the statistics fall out cell by cell. That took about 5,400 yearly simulations and 194,000 CPU hours on USGS's Hovenweep HPC. Worth it!
    The design-event shortcut turns out to hide a real hazard. A deterministic 10-year event underestimated flood depths by up to half a meter compared to the continuous runs.
    The bigger surprise [to the authors] was how one-sided the climate signal is. One metre of sea level rise takes King County's expected annual flooded area from 161 --> 787 hectares, almost a factor of five. Changes in storminess over the same horizon barely register. And somewhere between 100 and 150 cm of SLR, land that never floods today starts flooding fast. If you plan adaptation in Puget Sound, that threshold matters more than any single return-period map.
    [They] also propose Expected Annual Flooded Area (EAFA) as a probability-weighted alternative to the binary "inside or outside the 100-year zone" label…”

  18. Romero et al present an ice-free and paleo sea level chronology for James Ross Island in the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula area. They found that the advance of the local ice cap happened sometime after 40,000 years ago, and this implies a period of retreated ice in MIS 3.

    #Geology #Antarctica #IceSheets #SeaLevel

    doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.20

  19. Romero et al present an ice-free and paleo sea level chronology for James Ross Island in the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula area. They found that the advance of the local ice cap happened sometime after 40,000 years ago, and this implies a period of retreated ice in MIS 3.

    #Geology #Antarctica #IceSheets #SeaLevel

    doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.20

  20. 💁🏻‍♀️ TIL: 🌊🔥 #Ocean temperatures hit a record 21° C on June 21, 2026, driven by a strong #ElNiño layered over human caused #climatechange.

    Scientists confirmed the new high, warning of consequences for #weather patterns, #sealevel rise, and #marine #ecosystems. Experts project 2026 could become the hottest year on record, with 2027 likely hotter still.

    👉 gizmodo.com/earth-entering-unc

    #climate #elnino #globalwarming #records #copernicus #noaa #science #climate #storms

  21. 💁🏻‍♀️ TIL: 🌊🔥 #Ocean temperatures hit a record 21° C on June 21, 2026, driven by a strong #ElNiño layered over human caused #climatechange.

    Scientists confirmed the new high, warning of consequences for #weather patterns, #sealevel rise, and #marine #ecosystems. Experts project 2026 could become the hottest year on record, with 2027 likely hotter still.

    👉 gizmodo.com/earth-entering-unc

    #climate #elnino #globalwarming #records #copernicus #noaa #science #climate #storms

  22. While there is agreement that sea levels are rising (not just subsidence, the only way some parts of the world are allowed to talk about it). But we're still working on the "how much" and what is the scale of the different contributors.

    Link: science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv

    #SeaLevel #Ocean #ClimateChange

  23. While there is agreement that sea levels are rising (not just subsidence, the only way some parts of the world are allowed to talk about it). But we're still working on the "how much" and what is the scale of the different contributors.

    Link: science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv

    #SeaLevel #Ocean #ClimateChange

  24. How is this for a feedback loop?

    Ice sheets build up during a glaciation lowering global sea level → reduced water load leads to increased mid ocean ridge volcanism after a 10-20 kyr lag → volcanism releases iron in the ocean → iron causes plankton blooms → atmospheric CO₂ goes down → ice sheets build up

    #ClimateChange #IceSheets #SeaLevel

    nature.com/articles/s41561-026

  25. How is this for a feedback loop?

    Ice sheets build up during a glaciation lowering global sea level → reduced water load leads to increased mid ocean ridge volcanism after a 10-20 kyr lag → volcanism releases iron in the ocean → iron causes plankton blooms → atmospheric CO₂ goes down → ice sheets build up

    #ClimateChange #IceSheets #SeaLevel

    nature.com/articles/s41561-026

  26. Two sister cities. A rising sea level. A shared thought experiment. 🌊

    // How to bridge San Francisco and Kiel – A Sea Level Project
    What if Kiel and San Francisco shared a clock – calibrated not to seconds, but to the rising sea? Jonathon Keats, Stephan Juricke, Tim Logan & Axel Schulz think it through at #Waterkant26.
    18 – 19 June 2026 // MFG5 Kiel // GET YOUR TICKETS NOW: talque.com/go/ticket/acLVSX2j1

    #sealevel #climatechange #science #kiel #sanfrancisco #waterkant26

  27. Two sister cities. A rising sea level. A shared thought experiment. 🌊

    // How to bridge San Francisco and Kiel – A Sea Level Project
    What if Kiel and San Francisco shared a clock – calibrated not to seconds, but to the rising sea? Jonathon Keats, Stephan Juricke, Tim Logan & Axel Schulz think it through at .
    18 – 19 June 2026 // MFG5 Kiel // GET YOUR TICKETS NOW: talque.com/go/ticket/acLVSX2j1

  28. Oceans' Digital Eyes Dimming as Funding Stalls

    Global ocean monitoring network funding is low. This affects tracking sea levels and marine life. What happens next?

    #OceanMonitoring, #ClimateChange, #MarineScience, #FundingShortage, #SeaLevel

    newsletter.tf/ocean-monitoring

  29. Oceans' Digital Eyes Dimming as Funding Stalls

    Global ocean monitoring network funding is low. This affects tracking sea levels and marine life. What happens next?

    #OceanMonitoring, #ClimateChange, #MarineScience, #FundingShortage, #SeaLevel

    newsletter.tf/ocean-monitoring

  30. CW: Sea Level Rise Is Accelerating - new study

    A new paper answers questions about the causes of sea level rise. While melting glaciers (27%) and melting ice sheets at both ends of the planet (15% & 12%) play their parts, the biggest driver is warming seawater. Warmer water takes up more space, accounting for almost half (43%) of the rise.

    Now here comes the bad news.

    Since 1960, global sea levels have risen at an average rate of 2.06mm every year, but that figure is accelerating. Between 2005 and 2023 sea levels have risen by 3.94mm per year. If the increased pace continues, that 4mm is likely to double every twenty years.

    But let's magically imagine that the rate of increase stabilises at 4mm. In ten years that's a 40mm increase. In 100 years the figure becomes 400mm. And the researchers tell us that sea level rise is already baked in for "centuries".

    "Even if greenhouse gas emissions are eventually stabilized, sea level rise will not stop anytime soon."

    The future? We're soaking in it already.

    sciencedaily.com/releases/2026

    #SeaLevel #ClimateChange #Oceans

    [Edit: amended 100 year figure]