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#forecasting — Public Fediverse posts

Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #forecasting, aggregated by home.social.

  1. Roland Leth @[email protected] ·

    When Mauboussin and Mauboussin surveyed 1,700 people for HBR on what probability common phrases imply, "a real possibility" came back as anything from about 20% to about 80%.

    Which is why the confidence entry in a decision journal is a percentage. The precision feels unearned at first, but the number isn't claiming you know it's exactly 70; it's there so months of entries can be scored against what happened.

    roland.leth.ro/guides/how-to-k

    #Forecasting #Calibration

    #forecasting #calibration
  2. Roland Leth @[email protected] ·

    When Mauboussin and Mauboussin surveyed 1,700 people for HBR on what probability common phrases imply, "a real possibility" came back as anything from about 20% to about 80%.

    Which is why the confidence entry in a decision journal is a percentage. The precision feels unearned at first, but the number isn't claiming you know it's exactly 70; it's there so months of entries can be scored against what happened.

    roland.leth.ro/guides/how-to-k

    #Forecasting #Calibration

    #calibration #forecasting
  3. Roland Leth @[email protected] ·

    When Mauboussin and Mauboussin surveyed 1,700 people for HBR on what probability common phrases imply, "a real possibility" came back as anything from about 20% to about 80%.

    Which is why the confidence entry in a decision journal is a percentage. The precision feels unearned at first, but the number isn't claiming you know it's exactly 70; it's there so months of entries can be scored against what happened.

    roland.leth.ro/guides/how-to-k

    #Forecasting #Calibration

    #forecasting #calibration