#naturalhazard — Public Fediverse posts on home.social

I'm going to take advantage of the current #eruption on Mt #Etna to discuss some of the challenges of #modelling #lava flows. Buckle up (or just silence me) because this is going to be a long thread.

First of all, why do we want to model lava flows? The answer most definitely isn't «because we can», since —as I'm going to explain momentarily— we actually cannot. Still having an idea about how lava flows and sets in place is a powerful tool for the assessment (and possibly mitigation) of the associated #hazard and #risk: if we can tell how lava flows, we can tell which areas are going to be reached by the lava, and hopefully also improve the design of tactical and strategic actions that can be taken to minimize the damage.

(Of course, whether or not those actions will then be taken is an entirely different matter, but that's mostly politics, not science.)

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#MtEtna #modelling #simulation #CFD #NaturalHazard #hazardAssessment #riskAssessment #riskMitigation

#eruption #etna #modelling #lava #hazard #risk

Giuseppe Bilotta @[email protected] · 2025-02-25 · 17:36 UTC

I'm going to take advantage of the current #eruption on Mt #Etna to discuss some of the challenges of #modelling #lava flows. Buckle up (or just silence me) because this is going to be a long thread.

First of all, why do we want to model lava flows? The answer most definitely isn't «because we can», since —as I'm going to explain momentarily— we actually cannot. Still having an idea about how lava flows and sets in place is a powerful tool for the assessment (and possibly mitigation) of the associated #hazard and #risk: if we can tell how lava flows, we can tell which areas are going to be reached by the lava, and hopefully also improve the design of tactical and strategic actions that can be taken to minimize the damage.

(Of course, whether or not those actions will then be taken is an entirely different matter, but that's mostly politics, not science.)

1/

#MtEtna #modelling #simulation #CFD #NaturalHazard #hazardAssessment #riskAssessment #riskMitigation

#eruption #etna #modelling #lava #hazard #risk

Giuseppe Bilotta @[email protected] · 2025-02-25 · 17:36 UTC

I'm going to take advantage of the current #eruption on Mt #Etna to discuss some of the challenges of #modelling #lava flows. Buckle up (or just silence me) because this is going to be a long thread.

First of all, why do we want to model lava flows? The answer most definitely isn't «because we can», since —as I'm going to explain momentarily— we actually cannot. Still having an idea about how lava flows and sets in place is a powerful tool for the assessment (and possibly mitigation) of the associated #hazard and #risk: if we can tell how lava flows, we can tell which areas are going to be reached by the lava, and hopefully also improve the design of tactical and strategic actions that can be taken to minimize the damage.

(Of course, whether or not those actions will then be taken is an entirely different matter, but that's mostly politics, not science.)

1/

#MtEtna #modelling #simulation #CFD #NaturalHazard #hazardAssessment #riskAssessment #riskMitigation

#eruption #etna #modelling #lava #hazard #risk

Giuseppe Bilotta @[email protected] · 2025-02-25 · 17:36 UTC

I'm going to take advantage of the current #eruption on Mt #Etna to discuss some of the challenges of #modelling #lava flows. Buckle up (or just silence me) because this is going to be a long thread.

First of all, why do we want to model lava flows? The answer most definitely isn't «because we can», since —as I'm going to explain momentarily— we actually cannot. Still having an idea about how lava flows and sets in place is a powerful tool for the assessment (and possibly mitigation) of the associated #hazard and #risk: if we can tell how lava flows, we can tell which areas are going to be reached by the lava, and hopefully also improve the design of tactical and strategic actions that can be taken to minimize the damage.

(Of course, whether or not those actions will then be taken is an entirely different matter, but that's mostly politics, not science.)

1/

#MtEtna #modelling #simulation #CFD #NaturalHazard #hazardAssessment #riskAssessment #riskMitigation

#riskmitigation #riskassessment #hazardassessment #naturalhazard #cfd #simulation

Giuseppe Bilotta @[email protected] · 2025-02-25 · 17:36 UTC

I'm going to take advantage of the current #eruption on Mt #Etna to discuss some of the challenges of #modelling #lava flows. Buckle up (or just silence me) because this is going to be a long thread.

First of all, why do we want to model lava flows? The answer most definitely isn't «because we can», since —as I'm going to explain momentarily— we actually cannot. Still having an idea about how lava flows and sets in place is a powerful tool for the assessment (and possibly mitigation) of the associated #hazard and #risk: if we can tell how lava flows, we can tell which areas are going to be reached by the lava, and hopefully also improve the design of tactical and strategic actions that can be taken to minimize the damage.

(Of course, whether or not those actions will then be taken is an entirely different matter, but that's mostly politics, not science.)

1/

#MtEtna #modelling #simulation #CFD #NaturalHazard #hazardAssessment #riskAssessment #riskMitigation

#eruption #etna #modelling #lava #hazard #risk

💧🌏 Greg Cocks @[email protected] · 2024-11-05 · 22:06 UTC

A Seismic Precursor 15 Min Before The Giant Eruption Of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano On 15 January 2022
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111144 <-- shared paper
--
"KEY POINTS:
• The volcano generated Rayleigh waves about 15 min before the giant eruption with no apparent surface activity
• These waves dominated in 0.03–0.1 Hz with amplitudes comparable to the amplitude of M4.9
• Seismic stations 750 km from the volcano and appropriate data analyses allowed [them] to capture precursors of the catastrophic eruption..."
#geology #seismology #tonga #volcano #eruption #vulcanism #HungaTonga #RayleighWave #earthquake #precursor #remotesensing #imagery #satellite #HTHH #model #modeling #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #caldera #seismicstation #monitoring #naturalhazard #naturaldisaster #risk #hazard #engineeringgeology

#geology #seismology #tonga #volcano #eruption #vulcanism

💧🌏 Greg Cocks @[email protected] · 2024-01-23 · 20:30 UTC

Major Fluvial Erosion And A 500-Mt Sediment Pulse Triggered By Lava-Dam Failure, Río Coca, Ecuador
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https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.5751 <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #hydrology #erosion #volcanic #landscape #fluvial #risk #hazard #sediment #lava #dam #failure #RioCoca #ecuador #watershed #massmovement #scouring #river #model #modeling #geotechnical #geology #geomorphology #geomorphometry #tributaries #waterfall #naturalhazard #naturaldisaster #waterquality #publicsafety #economy #infrastructure #autogenic #volcaniclandscapes

#gis #spatial #mapping #hydrology #erosion #volcanic