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49 results for “tomaszwozniak”
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Woohoo! ✨🌟 I'm so happy that my #forecasting system predicted the CUT 📉 Change-point forecasting is difficult and I never took it for granted that the system will identify the CUT after over a year of no movements on #cashrate. But it managed: https://fosstodon.org/@tomaszwozniak/113990476075526687
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The cash rate has not moved since October 2023. So, how come the forecasts may indicate a CUT for the February meeting?❓❓
https://fosstodon.org/@tomaszwozniak/113990476075526687
✨ That's bc bond yield curve modelling includes rates on bonds of different maturities that contain whole lot of information, also about market participant expectations. And it seems, we all expect a CUT. 📉✅
This or the next time 😎
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Alright! Today we premiered the logo of my subject Quantitative Methods 1. Ofc, it presents linear regression output. My question to you is: what's the applied problem we're talking about here? Can you guess?
Reproduction scripts: https://github.com/donotdespair/naklejki/tree/master/qm1
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🪴 Everybody thinks so! My forecasting system, with nearly 200 predictive models, provides an 82 per cent chance of RAISE! 🚀 This probability is in line with those provided by Australian analytical departments and expresses the market expectations ✅ The most recent readings of inflation above the target likewise suggest the same. Therefore, despite the predictive interval including the current cash rate value, I say it’s a likely RAISE.
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We remember about folks inspiring and motivating us! #bsvars #bayesian #macroeconometrics
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We remember about folks inspiring and motivating us! #bsvars #bayesian #macroeconometrics
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We remember about folks inspiring and motivating us! #bsvars #bayesian #macroeconometrics
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We remember about folks inspiring and motivating us! #bsvars #bayesian #macroeconometrics
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We remember about folks inspiring and motivating us! #bsvars #bayesian #macroeconometrics
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✨⭐ Here it comes! A new working paper with fantastic Fei Shang. That's another methodological paper for the R package bsvars! 🩷💛 Just have a look at the abstract! Rest assured we provide solid backing for each of them 🦾💪
More details coming up soon.
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And here's the seminar recording https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ef3eXbqNbr8
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🖤💙 Oh, how nice! The International Labour Organization provided the recording of my yesterday's seminar on my new forecasting system for labour market outcomes and my R package bpvars I developed for them! It's all very good 🤍
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The presentation slides are now available at 🌐 https://bsvars.org/2026-03-bpvars-ilo/
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The presentation slides are now available at 🌐 https://bsvars.org/2026-03-bpvars-ilo/
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The presentation slides are now available at 🌐 https://bsvars.org/2026-03-bpvars-ilo/
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The presentation slides are now available at 🌐 https://bsvars.org/2026-03-bpvars-ilo/
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Have a look at this! 🖤💙 That's my presentation of the forecasting system I developed for the International Labour Organization and implemented in the R package bpvars!
Slides are available at 🌐 https://bsvars.org/2026-03-bpvars-ilo/
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Have a look at this! 🖤💙 That's my presentation of the forecasting system I developed for the International Labour Organization and implemented in the R package bpvars!
Slides are available at 🌐 https://bsvars.org/2026-03-bpvars-ilo/
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Have a look at this! 🖤💙 That's my presentation of the forecasting system I developed for the International Labour Organization and implemented in the R package bpvars!
Slides are available at 🌐 https://bsvars.org/2026-03-bpvars-ilo/
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Have a look at this! 🖤💙 That's my presentation of the forecasting system I developed for the International Labour Organization and implemented in the R package bpvars!
Slides are available at 🌐 https://bsvars.org/2026-03-bpvars-ilo/
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Have a look at this! 🖤💙 That's my presentation of the forecasting system I developed for the International Labour Organization and implemented in the R package bpvars!
Slides are available at 🌐 https://bsvars.org/2026-03-bpvars-ilo/
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Rather not! I don’t know! What do you think? 🤷♀️ According to my forecasting system, the cash rate is set to hold steady. Despite the forecast mean being on a clear upwards trajectory, the forecast intervals include the current cash rate value decisively. I’m sticking with my call: HOLD! 🛑 My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
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Hey hey, please join me for my webinar for the International Labour Organization next Wednesday that includes precentation of my R package bpvars 💙🖤
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🌐 Registrations and info: https://www.ilo.org/meetings-and-events/forecasting-labour-market-outcomes-using-bayesian-hierarchical-panel-vars -
Hey hey, please join me for my webinar for the International Labour Organization next Wednesday that includes precentation of my R package bpvars 💙🖤
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🌐 Registrations and info: https://www.ilo.org/meetings-and-events/forecasting-labour-market-outcomes-using-bayesian-hierarchical-panel-vars -
Hey hey, please join me for my webinar for the International Labour Organization next Wednesday that includes precentation of my R package bpvars 💙🖤
`
🌐 Registrations and info: https://www.ilo.org/meetings-and-events/forecasting-labour-market-outcomes-using-bayesian-hierarchical-panel-vars -
Hey hey, please join me for my webinar for the International Labour Organization next Wednesday that includes precentation of my R package bpvars 💙🖤
`
🌐 Registrations and info: https://www.ilo.org/meetings-and-events/forecasting-labour-market-outcomes-using-bayesian-hierarchical-panel-vars -
Hey hey, please join me for my webinar for the International Labour Organization next Wednesday that includes precentation of my R package bpvars 💙🖤
`
🌐 Registrations and info: https://www.ilo.org/meetings-and-events/forecasting-labour-market-outcomes-using-bayesian-hierarchical-panel-vars -
It’s a RAISE! And maybe for the better! Inflation readings consistently outside of RBA’s target convinced everybody about the inevitability of the RAISEs. That’s what my forecasts capture. The current cash rate value is decisively outside of the predictive interval and the mean indicates an increase in its value. My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
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⬛🟦⚪ Two years in the making! In a fantastic collaboration with Miguel from the International Labour Organisation! 🖤💙 The 'bpvars' package for Forecasting with Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressions is out on CRAN! And it's spectacular! Have a look:
https://cran.r-project.org/package=bpvars
#bpvars #bsvars.org #rstats -