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#coastal — Public Fediverse posts

Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #coastal, aggregated by home.social.

  1. Challenges In The Use Of Local Data For Regional Scale Mapping Of C And N Stocks In The Continuous Permafrost Zone At The Yukon Coastal Plain | Heatwave Risks To Tipping Point Of Permafrost
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    doi.org/10.5194/soil-12-113-20 <-- shared paper
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    doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-026 <-- shared paper
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    theguardian.com/environment/20 <-- shared media article
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    cbc.ca/news/canada/north/perma <-- shared media article
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    [putting together two different ‘sorts’/focuses of research/reporting, but…]
    H/T @gustaf Hugelius | Professor at Stockholm University
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    “Permafrost soils are particularly vulnerable to climate change. To assess and improve estimations of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) budgets it is necessary to accurately map soil carbon and nitrogen in the permafrost region. In particular, soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks have been predicted and mapped by many studies from local to pan-Arctic scales. Several studies have been carried out at the Canadian Beaufort Sea coast, though no regional maps of terrestrial carbon stocks based on spatial modelling has been conducted yet. This study combines available field data from the Canadian Yukon coastal plain and uses it to map regional SOC and N stocks using the machine learning algorithm random forest and environmental variables based on remote sensing data. [The authors] developed models using the data for the entire region and separate models for the coastal mainland area and Qikiqtaruk Herschel Island. Each model was used to map SOC and N stocks for its respective area. [They] assessed the performance of the different random forest models by using crossvalidation. [They] further assessed model results using the Area of Applicability (AOA) method and the quantile regression forest approach, comparing the results and discussing their implications within the context of both methods. [They] explore[d] local differences in soil properties and how soil data distribution across the region affects the accuracy of the predictions of SOC and N stocks..."
    #permafrost #soils #geology #climatechange #temperature #thawing #melting #emissions #CO2 #methane #carbon #nitrogen #GIS #spatial #mapping #Qikiqtaruk #HerschelIsland #Yukon #Canada #soilorganiccarbon #SOC #arctic #cryosphere #BeaufortSea #coast #coastal #machinelearning #model #modeling #remotesensing #earthobservation #carbonstocks #island #mainland #spatialanalysis #scale

  2. Fixing the fishing line

    Sometimes the fishing line gets tangled and you need to stop what you're doing and fix it.

    inphotos.org/2026/08/18/fixing

  3. Coastal Flooding At Predictable Hours
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    doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-757 <-- shared paper
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    H/T @bruna Alves | Nature Communications | Editor
    “When do coastal floods happen? ⏱️🌊
    A new study [link above] shows that, in many tide-dominated coastal regions, flooding tends to occur at specific and recurring times of day. Rather than being completely random, flood events often cluster around predictable hours driven by local tidal patterns.
    By analysing coastal flood observations from the UK and the US, [the authors] show[ed] that the timing of flood events can be highly structured, with some locations experiencing floods disproportionately during certain parts of the day.
    This adds a temporal dimension to coastal flood risk. We often focus on how frequently floods occur, how severe they are, and where they happen. This study highlights that when they occur may also matter, particularly as rising sea levels increase the frequency of coastal flooding.
    The findings provide a useful perspective for coastal adaptation, risk communication, and emergency planning…”
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    “Flooding is typically perceived as a sudden and unpredictable hazard. Here, [they] show that recurrent flooding can occur at highly predictable times in tidally dominated coastal systems. This predictability stems from phase-locking of tidal constituents and constituent pairs with the solar day, causing peak tides to recur at consistent local times set by regional tidal propagation. Using tide-gauge records from the United States and the United Kingdom, [they] quantif[ied] the intraday timing of coastal flood events and show strong clustering at specific hours, particularly where semidiurnal or mixed tides dominate. For example, floods in Boston cluster around noon and midnight, whereas in southern California they occur in the morning. Sites with stronger non-tidal variability show weaker clustering. This temporal predictability extends beyond nuisance flooding to larger consequential events involving inundation, road closures and infrastructural damage, highlighting opportunities for anticipatory risk communication, emergency planning and time-sensitive coastal adaptation…”
    #coast #coastal #flood #flooding #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #time #statistics #geostatistics #tide #tidal #timing #temporal #floodrisk #risk #hazard #sealevel #sealevelrise #climatechange #emergency #planning #tideguage #UK #USA #innundation #infrastructure #transportation #riskcommunication

  4. Quantifying UK Coastal Flood Exposure Under Future Sea-Level Rise To [2100 and] 2300
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    doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-749 <-- shared paper
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    theguardian.com/environment/20 <-- shared media article
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    H/T @University of Bristol School of Geographical Sciences
    “🌊 New research on long-term coastal flooding as a result of climate inaction 🌊
    … The researchers found:
    🔷 By 2100 at least an additional 0.5 million people exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood extent - a 25% increase compared to present day.
    🔷 Under the most pessimistic storyline by 2300 involving significant ice-sheet instability, an additional 13 million people could be exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood event.
    🔷 Under some scenarios there is a need for large-scale movement of populations and settlements away from the coast in the coming centuries…”
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    “Up to 13 million people in the UK face the long-term risk of coastal flooding due to the climate crisis, scientists have warned, with a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ suggesting the need for the large-scale movement of populations away from a dramatically reshaped coast…
    Sea level has risen by about 20cm around the UK in the last century and is accelerating. A further 40cm to 60cm by 2100 is already baked in, meaning about half a million more people will be at risk of their homes being flooded, on top of the 2.5 million already in danger near the coasts. Lincolnshire and the Humber estuary are most in danger…”
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    “The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report highlighted the potential for more than 15 metres of global sea-level rise by 2300. In this study, [the authors] explore the implications for UK coastal flood exposure by combining national-scale flood modelling with physically-based storylines of UK sea-level rise. By 2100 all storylines show broadly similar results with at least an additional ½ million people exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood extent, which represents a 25% increase compared to present day. Under the most pessimistic storyline by 2300 involving significant ice-sheet instability, an additional 13 million people could be exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood event. This would imply the potential need for large-scale movement of populations and settlements away from the coast in the coming centuries. Given current global emissions pledges, exposure increases by 1.7 million people by 2300, however up to 1 million could be avoided if Paris Agreement targets for greenhouse gas emissions are met…”
    #coast #coastal #innundation #climatechange #global #sealevel #sealevelrise #SLR #flood #flooding #climatechange #population #infrastructure #UK #England #Scotland #Wales #NorthernIreland #Lincolnshire #Humber #estuary #settlement #city #urban #mitigation #planning #policy #infrastructure #risk #hazard #humanimpacts #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #GIS #spatial #mapping #coastalflooding #climatecrisis #model #modeling #elevation #DEM

  5. Beyond The 100-Year Flood - Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment For King And Pierce Counties Under Future Climate Scenarios
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    doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3231- <-- shared #openacess paper
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    [part of my old stomping ground as an engineering geologist]
    H/T @Kees Nederhoff
    “Flood maps are usually built from a single design storm. For King and Pierce Counties in the Pacific Northwest (USA), [the authors] tried the opposite - simulate 82 years of actual coastal and river conditions (plus 18 synthetic years) with SFINCS and let the statistics fall out cell by cell. That took about 5,400 yearly simulations and 194,000 CPU hours on USGS's Hovenweep HPC. Worth it!
    The design-event shortcut turns out to hide a real hazard. A deterministic 10-year event underestimated flood depths by up to half a meter compared to the continuous runs.
    The bigger surprise [to the authors] was how one-sided the climate signal is. One metre of sea level rise takes King County's expected annual flooded area from 161 --> 787 hectares, almost a factor of five. Changes in storminess over the same horizon barely register. And somewhere between 100 and 150 cm of SLR, land that never floods today starts flooding fast. If you plan adaptation in Puget Sound, that threshold matters more than any single return-period map.
    [They] also propose Expected Annual Flooded Area (EAFA) as a probability-weighted alternative to the binary "inside or outside the 100-year zone" label…”
    #USGS #supercomputing #Hovenweep #HPC #coast #coastal #PNW #Seattle #PacificNorthwest #risk #hazard #riskmanagement #model #modeling #CFRM #deterministic #probabilistic #climatechange #extremeweather #fedscience #WA #KingCounty #PierceCounty #WashingtonState #USA #flood #flooding #compoundflooding #floodmaps #SFINCS #storm #weather #climate #climatechange #rainfall #precipitation #sealevel #sealevelrise #SLR #100yearflood #floodhazardmapping #returnperiods #pluvial #fluvial #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #remotesensing #streamgage #history #historicflooding #projections #predictions
    #USGS

  6. Extreme Coastal Flood [and SLR] Maps For Aotearoa New Zealand
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    niwa.co.nz/hazards/coastal-haz <-- shared Earth Sciences New Zealand entry page
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    experience.arcgis.com/experien <-- NIWA sea level / coastal flooding web mapping tools
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    niwa.co.nz/hazards/riskscape-s <-- shared NZ RiskScape software entry page
    --niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files <-- shared 2023 #NIWA report, ‘Mapping New Zealand’s exposure to coastal flooding and sea-level rise’
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    niwa.co.nz/hazards/coastal-sto <-- shared NIWA Coastal storm inundation page
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    #GIS #spatial #mapping #NewZealand #spatialdata #opendata #water #hydrography #coast #coastal #flood #flooding #inundation #stormsurge #risk #hazard #forecasting #infrastructure #cost #damage #housing #climatechange #storm #extremeweather #tide #inundation #waves #sealevelrise #SLR #model #modeling #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #floodmap #remotesensing #LiDAR #SRTM #regional
    @earth Sciences New Zealand | National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NIWA) | @Ministry for the Environment | Manatū mō te Taiao