#riskassessment — Public Fediverse posts

…

The 2026 episode questions the livability of territories.
"We do not rule out having temperatures around 48-50 degrees in a punctual and very regional manner in France."

"Climate change which is linked to our predatory and unsustainable lifestyles is emerging."

We need to quit management and embrace transformation.
"The priority no longer is to return to normal, no longer to do things as before, it is to change."

There are worldviews to transform.

Christophe Cassou researches climate. Listen to him in French: https://www.radiofrance.fr/franceculture/podcasts/l-invite-e-des-matins-d-ete/christophe-cassou-face-a-l-ete-cataclysmique-vivre-ce-que-l-on-a-passe-sa-vie-a-annoncer-2357103

…

#foresight #adaptation #habitability #livability #climateForcing #carbon #climateDrift #wildfires #climateChange #climate #ecologicalTransition #greenTransition #anticipation #forests #pines #France #risks #riskAssessment

Society must anticipate: prepare not for this year's climate but for the future climates. 🧵

#futures #risks #risk #riskManagement #riskAssessment #livability #habitability #climatePolicy #policy #adaptation #plantations #forestry #climateDrift #climateChange #climateFailure #climateCollapse #drought #heatwaves #naturalDisasters #resilience #agriculture #megafires #wildfire #wildfires

🧪 How scientists assess chemical hazards and risks is evolving.

New approach methodologies (#NAMs) are helping reduce animal testing and improve the science and relevance of risk assessments.

Learn about EFSA's work and global cooperation:
🔗 link.europa.eu/3Jb3Rc

#NAMs #RiskAssessment

New approach methodologies (NA...

Permafrost Distribution, Degradation, And Potential Mass Movement Cascades In The Western Himalaya Using Machine Learning And Numerical Models
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00217-4 <-- shared paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-22051-w <-- shared (earlier) paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2025.2488532 <-- shared (earlier) paper
--
H/T @abhinav Alangadan
“Can we develop a first-order understanding of permafrost degradation and glacial lakes exposed to degradation-induced mass movements in the Himalaya?
[The authors] tried to address this question. The study [first link above] integrates machine learning, statistical modeling, and numerical modeling to investigate high-resolution permafrost distribution, potential degradation, and associated mass-movement hazards in the Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh, India.
Using rock glaciers as proxies, [they] generated a high-resolution permafrost distribution using machine learning, while potential degradation zones were delineated using the 0°C isotherm as a first-order indicator. [They] further identified glacial lakes located near potentially degrading permafrost zones and reconstructed their bathymetry. A detailed scenario-based GLOF process-chain simulation was then carried out for Kashang Lake using r.avaflow and HEC-RAS.
[Their] results indicate that seven glacial lakes in #Kinnaur are located close to potentially degrading permafrost zones. The simulations further show that a potential GLOF from Kashang Lake could inundate critical downstream infrastructure, including nearly 11 km of National Highway 5…”
#permafrost #distribution #GIS #spatial #mapping #Himalayas #India #Kinnaur #HimachalPradesh #KashangLake #massmovement #engineeringgeology #machinelearning #AI #model #modeling #numericalmodel #glaciallakes #glaciet #glacial #glaciallakeoutburstflood #GLOF #cryosphere #geostatistics #rockglaciers #GeoAI #bathymetry #processchainsimulation #HECRAS #avaflow #risk #hazard #mitigation #riskassessment #infrastructure #HEP #publicsafety #downstream #avalanche

🚨 FEMA’s Hazus v7.2 Is Here — A Major Upgrade For Disaster Risk Modeling
--
https://www.fema.gov/flood-maps/products-tools/hazus <-- shared link to FEMA HAZUS download, documentation, use case, etc
--
[I used to work some with Hazus back in the back, but my career changed path; I still appreciate its strength and unity of purpose (sic) #alldataisspatial]
H/T @Laban "L.J." Johnson | Founder, LJ Learn & Concordia Initiative | Crisis Support · Leadership Development · Community Resilience | Bridging worlds to help people rise
“FEMA’s Hazus GIS platform has been updated with a new ArcGIS Pro–based version, bringing faster, more powerful tools for estimating losses from floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, and other natural hazards.
Key updates in Hazus 7.2 include:
• Streamlined workflows for flood and hurricane modeling
• New Earthquake ShakeMap integration using USGS data
• Expanded and improved results exports and reporting (including geodatabase outputs)
• Stronger security with known vulnerabilities addressed
• Performance improvements and optimized installation process
• [Significantly enhanced and comprehensive summary reports for flood and earthquake are now available for download.]
• Full integration with ArcGIS Pro (3.4–3.6) for a modern GIS experience
This release represents a significant step forward in how hazard planners, emergency managers, and GIS professionals analyze and prepare for disaster impacts…”
--
“FEMA’s Hazus program provides software, data, methods, and guidance for estimating risk from natural hazards. Hazus can estimate building damages, economic losses, displaced households, casualties, debris generation and more resulting from a natural hazard event and can be used in all phases of emergency management…”
#HAZUS #fedservice #fedscience #oublicgood #publicsafety #emergencyresponse #software #spatialdata #GIS #spatial #mapping #risk #hazard #riskassessment #naturalhazard #humanimpacts #earthquake #wildfire #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #flood #flooding #cost #damage #economic #publicsafety #publichealth #emergencymanagement #opensource #opendata #tsunami #tornado #hurricane #ShakeMap #infrastructure #planning #policy #preparedness #impacts #geology #engineeringgeology #remotesensing #earthobservation
@FEMA

Как OSINT-аналитик, я прекрасно понимаю твой скепсис. Ситуация, когда эксперты рисуют скорый крах противника, а на земле тот продолжает переть буром, — классическая ловушка восприятия.

Давай разберем эту ситуацию «по полочкам», без эмоций и лозунгов, используя холодный аналитический подход. Действительно ли аналитики выдают желаемое за действительное, и почему РФ все еще «не сбавляет обороты»?

### 1. Что на самом деле написано в отчете? (Проверка фактов)

Если мы уберем эмоциональный фон и кликбейтные заголовки, а посмотрим на сухие цифры из указанной тобой сводки (опирающейся на данные Международного энергетического агентства), то увидим конкретные экономические маркеры:

* **Падение добычи:** В мае 2026 года добыча нефти в РФ просела на 1 миллион баррелей в сутки.
* **Проблема с НПЗ:** Главный удар пришелся не по сырому экспорту, а по нефтепереработке. Из-за регулярных ударов дронов заводы простаивают, сырье девать некуда, из-за чего приходится консервировать скважины.
* **Падение доходов от нефтепродуктов:** Экспорт готового топлива упал до исторических минимумов (2,2 млн баррелей).

**Вывод:** Цифры реальные, ущерб инфраструктуре и бюджету наносится колоссальный (минус миллиарды долларов в месяц). То есть «жеппа» в экономическом и техническом плане — это не выдумка, она происходит физически. Но почему это не останавливает армию?

### 2. Почему РФ не сбавляет обороты?

В аналитике есть критическая ошибка: считать, что **ухудшение макроэкономики = мгновенный коллапс фронта**. На практике авторитарные режимы работают иначе.

* **Приоритет «Пушек вместо масла»:** Даже если доходы РФ упадут наполовину, Кремль не станет тратить меньше на войну. Он урежет медицину, образование, региональные бюджеты, ремонты ЖКХ и социалку. Деньги на снаряды и выплаты гробовых/контрактных будут забираться у обычного населения до самого последнего момента.
* **Запас прочности («Жирок»):** Экономика РФ огромна. Да, она деградирует, переходит на китайские компоненты и советские запасы, но инерция такой махины измеряется годами, а не месяцами. Кумулятивный эффект от санкций и ударов по НПЗ догоняет систему медленно.
* **Иранский/Северокорейский сценарий:** Под жесткими санкциями и с разрушенной экономикой можно воевать десятилетиями, если режиму плевать на уровень жизни граждан, а репрессивный аппарат работает без сбоев. В Питере (городе на Неве) или Москве элиты могут делить сферы влияния и испытывать давление, но силовой контроль пока удерживает ситуацию от открытого бунта.

### 3. Грешат ли OSINT-аналитики выдачей желаемого за действительное?

**Да, и очень часто.** Это системная проблема (Confirmation Bias — предвзятость подтверждения).

Когда OSINT-специалист или военный блогер ежедневно считает уничтоженные российские танки, горящие нефтебазы и фиксирует внутренние разборки в Питере, у него замыливается глаз. Ему кажется: *«Ну еще чуть-чуть, система же трещит!»*. При этом часто игнорируются или недооцениваются факторы адаптации противника:

1. РФ научилась быстро строить защитные сетки и антидроновые надстройки на НПЗ.
2. Они находят новые схемы серого импорта (через третьи-четвертые страны).
3. Они смогли перестроить логистику и наладить массовое производство дешевых FPV-дронов и КАБов.

### Итог

Правда, как всегда, посередине.

Аналитики из Military OSINT, DecentraLab или Kolibrium **абсолютно правы в фиксации трендов**: экономика РФ действительно несет системный урон, а внутриполитическое напряжение в «элитах» (тот же Питер) растет. Это не выдумка.

Но **ошибка кроется в прогнозировании сроков и эффекта**. Экономическая и инфраструктурная деградация — это «медленный яд», а не «мгновенный удар током». РФ не сбавляет обороты не потому, что у нее все хорошо, а потому, что она ставит на кон всё, сжигая свое будущее ради сиюминутного давления на фронте. Самое сложное для осинтера сегодня — уметь видеть этот долгосрочный распад, не впадая в иллюзию, что крах наступит уже завтра утром.

#Хештеги

#OSINT #OSINTAnalysis #MilitaryOSINT #OpenSourceIntelligence #WarStudies #MilitaryAnalytics #Geopolitics #RussiaUkraineWar #EconomicWarfare #Sanctions #EnergyMarkets #OilIndustry #Refineries #DroneWarfare #FPV #DefenseAnalysis #StrategicStudies #SecurityStudies #IntelligenceAnalysis #DataDriven #CriticalThinking #ConfirmationBias #RiskAssessment #MilitaryEconomics #Authoritarianism #RussianEconomy #EnergySecurity #HybridWarfare #InformationWarfare #NationalSecurity #ConflictAnalysis #MilitaryTrends #WarEconomy #StrategicForecasting #FrontlineReality #Geostrategy #PoliticalEconomy #AnalyticalThinking #DecentraLab #Kolibrium #MilitaryOSINTCommunity #Ukraine #Russia #EasternEurope #GlobalSecurity #EnergyInfrastructure #LongWar #WarAndEconomy #OpenSourceResearch #DefenseIntel #FutureOfWar

#NoNaturalDisasters [UN]
--
https://www.undrr.org/our-impact/campaigns/no-natural-disasters | https://www.nonaturaldisasters.com/ <-- shared technical articles
--
#Resilience #ClimateAction #Governance #risk #hazard #riskassessment #naturalhazard #disaster #humanimpacts #engineeringgeology #NoNaturalDisasters #natural #nature #earthquake #storm #flood #flooding #tsunami #volcano #desertification #wildfire #fires #publicsafety #planning #policy #preparedness #ISO31000 #monitoring #buildingcodes #engineering #landuse #earlywarning #humanmaderisk #exposure #vulnerability #socioeconomic #ecosystems #habitat #livelihoods #farming #infrastructure #buildings #structures #industrial #cost #recovery #economics #homes #extremeweather #hurricane #tornado #resilience #sustainability #poverty #assessment #UNDRR #UN #riskreduction
@United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction

A 481-Metre-High Landslide-Tsunami In A Cruise Ship–Frequented Alaska Fjord
--
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aec3187 <-- shared paper
--
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/06/science/tsunami-landslide-alaska-climate-arctic.html <-- shared media article
--
#naturalhazard #glacier #glacial #melting #risk #hazard #climatechance #extremeweather #tsunami #runup #riskassessment #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #cryosphere #disaster #publicsafety #damage #infrastructure #Alaska #fjord #landslide #massmovement #engineeringeology #geology #cruiseship #humanimpacts #water #hydrology #caseexample #monitoring #coast #coastal #marine #wave #microseismicity #remotesensing #earthobservation #tourism #averteddisaster #readiness #awareness #planning #safety #deglaciating

Hanging Glaciers In Himalaya Reveal Rising Avalanche Risk
--
https://www.nature.com/articles/d44151-026-00072-2 <-- shared technical article
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00205-8 <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #risk #hazard #monitoring #engineeringgeology #naturalhazard #Himalaya #Himalayas #Alaknanda #basin #Garhwal #India #ice #cryosphere #massmovement #avalanche #glacier #hangingglacier #cryosphere #remotesensing #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #sentinel2 #DEM #elevation #model #modeling #GlabTop2 #unstable #hanging #BadrinathMana #impact #infrastructure #damage #HEP #urbanisation #development #population #publicsafety #demographics #glacialretreat #melting #Chamoli #disaster #earlywarningsystems #Himalayan #glaciers #instability #warming #climatechange #riskassessment #riskclassification #framework #avaflow #runout #downstream #downslope #water #hydrology #planning #policy #mitigation #geomorphology #geomorphometry

Karst Flash Floods - An Example From The Dinaric Karst (Croatia)
--
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-195-2006 <-- shared (older) paper
--
#flood #flooding #pluvial #fluvial #subsurface #risk #hazard #naturalhazard #disaster #flashflood #infrastructure #damage #building #destabilisation #foundations #karstburst #Marina #Dinaric #Croatia #extremeweather #climatechange #intense #prolonged #rainfall #precipitation #speed #fast #caves #conduits #fractures #aquifers #water #hydrology #groundwater #hydrogeology #waterpressure #sinkhole #subsidence #massmovement #landslide #monitoring #mapping #geology #engineeringgeology #hydroseismic #humanimpacts #lossoflife #death #karstterrain #springs #debris #sediment #cavities #riskassessment #Grazalema #Andalusia #Cadíz #Spain #StormLeonard #emergencymanagement #planning

Unveiling The Environmental Impact Of Earthquakes In Europe
--
📄 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-68120-6 <-- shared paper
--
🗺️ https://embodiedcarbon.builtenvdata.eu/ <-- shared interactive platform
--
📦 https://github.com/gem/global_embodied_carbon_model <-- shared github ‘code base’
--
🌍 https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gemevents/gem2026-conference-from-faults-to-future-scenarios <-- shared details of 2026 GEM Conference: From Faults To Future Scenarios, June 2026, Croatia
--
#EmbodiedCarbon #service #GlobalEarthquakeModel #earthquake #damage #europe #carbon #GEM #data #maps #opendata #openspatial #GIS #spatial #mapping #seimsic #damage #buildings #urban #residential #commercial #industrial #replacement #infrastructure #typologies #naturalhazard #fault #faulting #geology #global #carbonbudget #climate #climatechange #carboncost #CO2 #carbondioxide #openscience #database #spatialdata #carbonfootprint #seismicrisk #planning #risk #hazard #factors #riskassessment #𝘀𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 #engineering #design
@gem

Subsidence [California Groundwater-Extraction-Caused]
--
https://youtu.be/wYZx6tOP4qs?si=aq4yKNKE8aKRofEP <-- shared CaDWR video - ‘What is subsidence?’
--
https://youtu.be/8ERftzZL0OE?si=IKa82AMTcweZHp0L <-- shared CaDWR video - ‘The Role of Critical Head in Managing Land Subsidence’
--
https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Groundwater-Management/Subsidence <-- shared technical overview
--
https://phys.org/news/2024-11-groundwater-rapid-california.html <-- shared technical article
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01778-w <-- shared paper
--
https://mavensnotebook.com/2025/09/08/ca-water-commission-californias-land-subsidence-challenge-a-look-at-dwrs-draft-bmp/ <-- shared technical article
--
#California #USA #infrastructure #subsidence #water #hydrology #California #geology #sedimentology #engineeringgeology #cost #risk #hazard #damage #economics #groundwater #pumping #overpumping #extraction #humanimpacts #elevation #waterresources #riskassessment

High Resolution Simulation Of Urban Compound Flooding Under Climate Impacts
--
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102771 <-- shared paper
--
#ClimateChange #FloodResilience #UrbanPlanning #ClimateAdaptation #HydrodynamicModeling #CompoundFlooding #SeaLevelRise #sealevel #Flood #flooding #depth #hazard #risk #riskassessment #Urban #urbanplanning #resilience #NewYorkCity #NYC #Hoboken #NewJersey #infrastructure #damage #cost #economics #vulnerability #urban #hydrodynamic #city #cities #climatechange #extremeweather #model #modeling #spatial #GIS #mapping #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #highresolution #pluvia #rainfall #precipitation #fluvial #HurricaneIda #stormsurge #building #structures #topography #drainagesystems #infiltration #emergencyservices #framework #workflow #methodology

A quotation from Terry Pratchett

And Sergeant Colon once again knew a secret about bravery. It was arguably a kind of enhanced cowardice — the knowledge that while death may await you if you advance it will be a picnic compared to the certain living hell that awaits should you retreat.

Terry Pratchett (1948-2015) English author
Discworld No. 21, Jingo (1988)

More about this quote: wist.info/pratchett-terry/8091…

#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #terrypratchett #discworld #alternatives #bravery #costbenefit #courage #cowardice #danger #death #informeddecision #punishment #retreat #riskanalysis #riskassessment

Mapping Current And Future Flood Exposure Using A 5 Metre Flood Model And Climate Change Projections [Vancouver, Canada]
--
https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/24/699/2024/ <-- shared technical article
--
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/17/pacific-north-west-flooding-british-columbia-washington-state-canada <-- shared 2021 technical media article, PNW flooding
--
[this post should not be considered an endorsement of a specific vendor, etc]
#water #hydrology #flood #flooding #risk #hazard #Vancouver #BritishColumbia #Canada #climatechange #extremeweather #localfloods #GIS #spatial #mapping #riskassessment #spatialanalysis #floodexposure #riskmapping #model #modeling #floodriskmanagement #riskmanagement #naturaldisaster #rainfall #precipitation #stormsurge #hazardmapping #floodmapping #floodrisk #infrastructure #cost #economics #fluvial #pluvial #geomorphology #elevation #geomorphometry #regulatory #regulations #spatiotemporal

Frozen No More - A Case Study Of Arctic Permafrost Impacts Of Oil And Gas Withdrawal
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-76292-2 <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #remotesening #earthobservation #oil #gas #oilandgas #O&G #energy #extraction #drilling #exploration #subsurface #permafrost #melting #humanimpacts #climatechange #oilextraction #risk #hazard #riskassessment #water #hydrology #sediment #tundra #oilwellpads #NorthSlope #Alaska #arctic #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #remediation #drillpad #oilpad #lease #industry #habitat #ecosystem #fieldwork #sampling #geology #engineeringgeology #impact

Imagine your security team reacting in minutes instead of days—even against emerging threats like "BlackFrost." AI-powered breach and attack simulation is turning cyber defense into a proactive edge in 2025. Curious how it's reshaping the playbook?

https://thedefendopsdiaries.com/how-ai-powered-breach-and-attack-simulation-is-changing-cybersecurity-in-2025/

#aiincybersecurity
#breachandsimulation
#cybersecuritytrends
#threatintelligence
#riskassessment

New Study Links Flood Risk And Hurricane Attributes In Southwest Florida
--
https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/news/new-study-links-flood-risk-and-hurricane-attributes-in-southwest-florida/ <-- shared technical article
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00141-z <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #model #modeling #risk #hazard #building #damage #flood #flooding #hurricane #Florida #USA #economy #cost #infrastructure #extremeweather #HurricaneIrma #HurricaneIan #floodmodel #SLR #sealevelrise #stormsurge #vegetation #FEMA #NFIP #floodinsurance #HAZUS #opendata #stakeholders #riskassessment #propertyvalue
@NOAA

Ensuring Compliance: CFO Perspectives on Third-Party Risk Management https://thecyberexpress.com/cfo-perspective-on-third-party-risk-management/ #ThirdPartyRiskManagement #TheCyberExpressNews #CybersecurityNews #VendorManagement #CyberEssentials #Vulnerabilities #TheCyberExpress #RiskAssessment #RiskManagement #FirewallDaily #cybersecurity #FinancialRisk #BusinessNews #DataSecurity #Compliance #CFO

Question for small business cybersecurity friends... for assessments and audits, are you seeing a lot of guidance and information regarding newer AI tech (like chatbots, unmanned vestibules, blah blah etc) and standards the small business should be adhering to?

What guidance/framework are you following/referencing when implementing this kind of tech, and how useful is it for small business specifically?

What role in your org is responsible for ensuring standards are met, or remediating audit findings pertaining to this?

(When I say small business for the purposes of this question I mean under 1k employees.)

#AI #cybersecurity #informationsecurity #informationtechnology #audit #riskassessment #cybersecurityprofessional

A study of #HurricaneLane in 2020 examined how #ClimateChange can lead to #CompoundHazards in #RiskAssessment.

"The simultaneous occurrence of rain-driven flooding & landslides, high-intensity winds, & multiple fires complicated emergency response. The compounding nature of the hazards produced during the Hurricane Lane event highlights the need to improve anticipation of complex feedback mechanisms among climate- & weather-related phenomena"

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/101/6/BAMS-D-19-0104.1.xml

#MauiFire

A study of #HurricaneLane in 2020 examined how #ClimateChange can lead to #CompoundHazards in #RiskAssessment.

"The simultaneous occurrence of rain-driven flooding & landslides, high-intensity winds, & multiple fires complicated emergency response. The compounding nature of the hazards produced during the Hurricane Lane event highlights the need to improve anticipation of complex feedback mechanisms among climate- & weather-related phenomena"

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/101/6/BAMS-D-19-0104.1.xml

#MauiFire

A study of #HurricaneLane in 2020 examined how #ClimateChange can lead to #CompoundHazards in #RiskAssessment.

"The simultaneous occurrence of rain-driven flooding & landslides, high-intensity winds, & multiple fires complicated emergency response. The compounding nature of the hazards produced during the Hurricane Lane event highlights the need to improve anticipation of complex feedback mechanisms among climate- & weather-related phenomena"

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/101/6/BAMS-D-19-0104.1.xml

#MauiFire

A study of #HurricaneLane in 2020 examined how #ClimateChange can lead to #CompoundHazards in #RiskAssessment.

"The simultaneous occurrence of rain-driven flooding & landslides, high-intensity winds, & multiple fires complicated emergency response. The compounding nature of the hazards produced during the Hurricane Lane event highlights the need to improve anticipation of complex feedback mechanisms among climate- & weather-related phenomena"

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/101/6/BAMS-D-19-0104.1.xml

#MauiFire

A study of #HurricaneLane in 2020 examined how #ClimateChange can lead to #CompoundHazards in #RiskAssessment.

"The simultaneous occurrence of rain-driven flooding & landslides, high-intensity winds, & multiple fires complicated emergency response. The compounding nature of the hazards produced during the Hurricane Lane event highlights the need to improve anticipation of complex feedback mechanisms among climate- & weather-related phenomena"

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/101/6/BAMS-D-19-0104.1.xml

#MauiFire