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#riskassessment — Public Fediverse posts

Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #riskassessment, aggregated by home.social.

  1. Permafrost Distribution, Degradation, And Potential Mass Movement Cascades In The Western Himalaya Using Machine Learning And Numerical Models
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    doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-002 <-- shared paper
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    doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-220 <-- shared (earlier) paper
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    doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2025. <-- shared (earlier) paper
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    H/T @abhinav Alangadan
    “Can we develop a first-order understanding of permafrost degradation and glacial lakes exposed to degradation-induced mass movements in the Himalaya?
    [The authors] tried to address this question. The study [first link above] integrates machine learning, statistical modeling, and numerical modeling to investigate high-resolution permafrost distribution, potential degradation, and associated mass-movement hazards in the Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh, India.
    Using rock glaciers as proxies, [they] generated a high-resolution permafrost distribution using machine learning, while potential degradation zones were delineated using the 0°C isotherm as a first-order indicator. [They] further identified glacial lakes located near potentially degrading permafrost zones and reconstructed their bathymetry. A detailed scenario-based GLOF process-chain simulation was then carried out for Kashang Lake using r.avaflow and HEC-RAS.
    [Their] results indicate that seven glacial lakes in #Kinnaur are located close to potentially degrading permafrost zones. The simulations further show that a potential GLOF from Kashang Lake could inundate critical downstream infrastructure, including nearly 11 km of National Highway 5…”
    #permafrost #distribution #GIS #spatial #mapping #Himalayas #India #Kinnaur #HimachalPradesh #KashangLake #massmovement #engineeringgeology #machinelearning #AI #model #modeling #numericalmodel #glaciallakes #glaciet #glacial #glaciallakeoutburstflood #GLOF #cryosphere #geostatistics #rockglaciers #GeoAI #bathymetry #processchainsimulation #HECRAS #avaflow #risk #hazard #mitigation #riskassessment #infrastructure #HEP #publicsafety #downstream #avalanche

  2. A critique of the linear non-threshold model used by the U.S. EPA to assess cancer risk:

    acsh.org/news/2026/04/28/asses

    As noted in the article, this is a politically contentious topic. The author has had a long career in both the public and private sector, and does not appear to have a political agenda.

    #Toxicology #RiskAssessment #Cancer #Environment #EnvironmentalToxicology #USEPA

  3. Colluding Rhino Poachers Exploit Space–Time Variation In Opportunity And Risk
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    doi.org/10.1111/conl.13106 <-- shared paper
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    “[R]esearch analysing over 500 rhino poaching incidents and exploring what these patterns reveal about the behaviours of poachers, rangers, and rhinos. [Their] study highlights concerning evidence of criminal syndicate infiltration, space–time targeting by poachers, and how behavioural insights can inform effective responses—from targeted dehorning to bolstering ranger resilience…”
    #GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #wildlifeconservation #wildlife #conservation #statistics #geostatistics #rhino #rhinohorn #rhinoceros #poaching #rangers #criminal #syndicate #mafia #criminalsyndicate #activity #crime #illegal #behaviour #dehorning #rangerstation #protection #humanimpacts #ecosystem #habitat #deterrencetheory #deterrence #methodology #tourist #tourism #reserve #spatiotemporal #opportunity #risk #hazard #riskassessment #Africa #SouthAfrica #alldataisspatial
    @Sabi Sand Nature Reserve