home.social

#riskassessment — Public Fediverse posts

Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #riskassessment, aggregated by home.social.

  1. Hey you know what? S_IT happens in space!

    Sept 4, The US Space Force (USSF) reported 43 debris objects from the breakup Chinese satellite "Yaogan-50" that launched on March 15, 2026.

    Cataloging space debris is one of USSF's core missions.

    Yaogan-50 successfully reached its operational orbit but apparently experienced an "anomaly" as they say in space lingo. The fragments are at altitudes between 372 and 683 miles (600 and 1,100 km).

    Yaogan-50 is a series of remote-sensing and reconnaissance satellites. Suggestions are these satellites are used for military surveillance and intelligence. China claims they are focused on national land surveys, crop yield estimation, and disaster prevention. gizmodo.com/chinese-satellite-

    Learn more about Space Collision Avoidance Technolgies in Space in the TechAptitude post: techaptitude.substack.com/p/sa #Space #SpaceJunk #SpaceDebris #SSA #USSF #CollisionAvoidance #Conjunction #SpaceFlight #SpaceCraft #Satellite #China #Reconnaissance #RiskAssessment #Yaogan50

  2. Hey you know what? S_IT happens in space!

    Sept 4, The US Space Force (USSF) reported 43 debris objects from the breakup Chinese satellite "Yaogan-50" that launched on March 15, 2026.

    Cataloging space debris is one of USSF's core missions.

    Yaogan-50 successfully reached its operational orbit but apparently experienced an "anomaly" as they say in space lingo. The fragments are at altitudes between 372 and 683 miles (600 and 1,100 km).

    Yaogan-50 is a series of remote-sensing and reconnaissance satellites. Suggestions are these satellites are used for military surveillance and intelligence. China claims they are focused on national land surveys, crop yield estimation, and disaster prevention. gizmodo.com/chinese-satellite-

    Learn more about Space Collision Avoidance Technolgies in Space in the TechAptitude post: techaptitude.substack.com/p/sa

  3. "We demonstrate a crucial link between the projected increase in spatially compounding hot, wet, and dry extremes and the amplification of global economic exposure. […] Our findings reveal that regions with lower present-day economic wealth are more likely to face extreme events simultaneously with other areas, amplifying the potential threats to their economic stability."

    Biess, B., Gudmundsson, L. & Seneviratne, S.I. "Global economic exposure to climate change amplified by spatially compounding climate extremes" (2026). doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-701 🧵

    #droughts #floods #heatwaves #disasters #events #risk #riskAssessment #adapting #climate #climateEmergency #climateChange #globalWarming #globalHeating #economy

  4. "Uncertainties in future food security will remain large."

    "Out of 42 models, 10 models show climate outcomes at a 2 °C warming that are well beyond the multimodel mean at 4 °C of global warming (Fig. 3b). This stresses the need for a careful assessment of their plausibility by evaluating the underlying physical processes. Yet, regardless of pending plausibility checks, these results also call for examining the potential impacts of extreme climate outcomes on global crop production through crop modelling, which can incorporate factors such as irrigation, soil properties and complex management practices."

    Emanuele Bevacqua, Erich Fischer, Jana Sillmann, Jakob Zscheischler (2026). "Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes" doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-102

    #maize #wheat #soybean #rice #riskAssessment #anticipation #climateChange #futures #droughts #agriculture #food #inflation #foodSecurity

  5. The 2026 episode questions the livability of territories.
    "We do not rule out having temperatures around 48-50 degrees in a punctual and very regional manner in France."

    "Climate change which is linked to our predatory and unsustainable lifestyles is emerging."

    We need to quit management and embrace transformation.
    "The priority no longer is to return to normal, no longer to do things as before, it is to change."

    There are worldviews to transform.

    Christophe Cassou researches climate. Listen to him in French: radiofrance.fr/franceculture/p

    #foresight #adaptation #habitability #livability #climateForcing #carbon #climateDrift #wildfires #climateChange #climate #ecologicalTransition #greenTransition #anticipation #forests #pines #France #risks #riskAssessment


  6. The EU's adaptation framework serves as a distraction. The cover for treating adaptation as purely technical is thinner than it has been in years. This summer ongoing disasters offer an opening to:
    * discuss adaptation;
    * look at the perpetrators: fed.brid.gy/r/https://bsky.app

    _References_

    The present thread was inspired by two other voices about the same technocratic output: strategicclimaterisks.substack

    Here is the announcement of the report from the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, 'Strengthening resilience to climate change – Recommendations for an effective EU adaptation policy framework': climate-advisory-board.europa.

    #climatePolicy #adaptation #climateChange #livability #policy #climate #riskAssessment #governance #uncertainty #EU #EuropeanUnion #Europe

  7. #Adaptation gets treated as technical work when it's extremely political. Someone decides which communities are defended, which regions are given up, and who pays.
    France's mega-basin enforcers show how such centralization triggers organised resistance: climatejustice.social/@breton/

    Whatever gets planned has to be delivered inside worsening instability.
    Budgets raided by the latest emergency, civil services running on depleted trust, supply chains competing against reconstruction elsewhere.
    Researchers call this derailment risk, and every plan should account for it: scri.org.uk/publications/repor

    #climatePolicy #adaptation #climateChange #livability #policy #climate #riskAssessment #derailment #climateEmergency #agriculture

  8. The EU report is detailed and gives an impression that a 3°C planet would be harsh but manageable under the same institutions.
    The report does not wonder about unknown unknowns. It does not address supply-chain disruption, financial contagion or people displacement. It lives in a fancy Fortress Europe.

    The report also never mentions #AMOC once, even as the evidence for the risk of its collapse to Europe hardens and Iceland starts treating it as a national security threat:
    mas.to/@maugendre/111917327688 🧵

    #climatePolicy #adaptation #climateChange #livability #policy #climate #futures #EUPol #Europe #risks #riskAssessment

  9. New York State Department of Financial Services announced on August 5 that Order Express, Inc., a licensed money transmitter, will pay a $250,000 penalty for violations of DFS’s cybersecurity regulation (23 NYCRR Part 500).

    Order Express suffered a ransomware attack in 2022, which they reported appropriately. But then the DFS's investigation revealed that the entity did not have adequate cybersecurity risk assessment or plan.

    Read more at: dfs.ny.gov/reports_and_publica

    #NYSDFS #OrderExpress #databreach #cybersecurity #FinSec #ransomware #riskassessment

  10. Flood And Landslide Susceptibility Assessment And Multi Hazard Interaction Mapping Using Machine Learning And GIS For Sustainable Settlement Planning In Nepal
    --
    doi.org/10.1007/s44288-026-006 <-- shared paper
    --
    H/T @Narayan Thapa | Earth Data Modeling
    “Nepal lies within an active seismic zone and is influenced by most dynamic climatic systems in the world. It faces compounding floods and landslide threats. Impacts are worst where multi-hazard interactions create spatially linked corridors. Despite frequent co-occurrence, national-scale assessments remain limited. This study presents machine learning and GIS-based approach to map nationwide susceptibility to floods, landslides, and identify their potential interaction zones, and delineate critical multi-hazard flow zones through spatial adjacency analysis. Using Google Earth Engine, the Random Forest model integrates topographic, climatic, environmental, and hydrological datasets to overcome subjective expert-driven methods. The model achieved strong predictive accuracy (AUC: 0.84 for floods, 0.85 for landslides). The results showed 19% of Nepal’s lowlands are medium to very highly susceptible to inundation, threatening approximately 900,000 people and over 3.4 million buildings; whilst in the hilly terrains, 40% is susceptible to slope-failure endangering 200,000 people and about 0.6 million buildings. K-means clustering followed by spatial adjacency analysis identified four spatial zonation: 81% of national area as low-hazard zone, 9% as flood-only zone, 5% as landslide-only zone, and 5% as interaction zones. Critical multi-hazard flow zone covering 7,588 km² represents spatially connected corridors linking interaction zones to downstream flood-prone populated areas, affecting 88 km² built-up land and 1,722 km² cropland. These zones represent susceptibility-based spatial connectivity rather than physically simulated cascading processes. These findings support recommendations for risk-informed land-use planning, resilient infrastructure development and climate adaptation aligned to sustainable development and investment risk screening…”
    #GIS #spatial #mapping #GoogleEarthEngine #MachineLearning #RemoteSensing #GeospatialAI #DisasterRiskReduction #MultiHazard #ClimateAdaptation #climatechange #extremeweather #LandUsePlanning #SustainableDevelopment #InfrastructurePlanning #RiskAssessment #NaturalHazards #Nepal #EarthObservation #HinduKushHimalaya #HKH #HinduKush #Himalayas #risk #hazard #assessment #national #regional #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #massmovement #landslide #assessment #mitigation #water #hydrology #flood #flooding #sustainability

  11. Modeling Flood Susceptibility Utilizing Advanced Ensemble Machine Learning Techniques in the Marand Plain [Iran]
    --
    doi.org/10.3390/geosciences150 <-- shared paper
    --
    H/T @Geosciences MDPI
    “This study applies advanced machine learning algorithms to map flood susceptibility in northwest Iran. The results demonstrate strong predictive performance, with the Locally Weighted Linear model delivering the highest accuracy and providing valuable guidance for flood-risk management and disaster mitigation…”
    --
    “Flooding is one of the most significant natural hazards in Iran, primarily due to the country’s arid and semi-arid climate, irregular rainfall patterns, and substantial changes in watershed conditions. These factors combine to make floods a frequent cause of disasters. In this case study, flood susceptibility patterns in the Marand Plain, located in the East Azerbaijan Province in northwest Iran, were analyzed using five machine learning (ML) algorithms: M5P model tree, Random SubSpace (RSS), Random Forest (RF), Bagging, and Locally Weighted Linear (LWL). The modeling process incorporated twelve meteorological, hydrological, and geographical factors affecting floods at 485 identified flood-prone points. The data were analyzed using a geographic information system, with the dataset divided into 70% for training and 30% for testing to build and validate the models. An information gain ratio and multicollinearity analysis were employed to assess the influence of various factors on flood occurrence, and flood-related variables were classified using quantile classification. The frequency ratio method was used to evaluate the significance of each factor. Model performance was evaluated using statistical measures, including the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. All models demonstrated robust performance, with an area under the ROC curve (AUROC) exceeding 0.90. Among the models, the LWL algorithm delivered the most accurate predictions, followed by RF, M5P, Bagging, and RSS. The LWL-generated flood susceptibility map classified 9.79% of the study area as highly susceptible to flooding, 20.73% as high, 38.51% as moderate, 29.23% as low, and 1.74% as very low. The findings of this research provide valuable insights for government agencies, local authorities, and policymakers in designing strategies to mitigate flood-related risks. This study offers a practical framework for reducing the impact of future floods through informed decision-making and risk management strategies…”
    #FloodSusceptibility #FloodRisk #MachineLearning #GIS #NaturalHazards #DisasterManagement #FloodModeling #Hydrology #EnvironmentalMonitoring #RiskAssessment #GeospatialAnalysis #ClimateResilience #GIS #spatial #mapping #Iran #MarandPlain #EastAzerbaijan #machinelearning #AI #floodhazard #floodvulnerability #flood #flooding #water #hydrography #hydrology #model #modeling #risk #hazard #rainfall #precipitation #extremeweather #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #modelperformance #policy #planning #mitigation #design #riskmanagement

  12. University of Washington: 6.5 million Americans face landslide risks — a new database shows where they live. “The new Landslide Exposure Database is the first resource to map building-level landslide risk for the entire U.S. The database, developed by University of Washington researchers, rates 128 million buildings by landslide susceptibility, and uses socioeconomic data to assess […]

    https://rbfirehose.com/2026/07/30/university-of-washington-6-5-million-americans-face-landslide-risks-a-new-database-shows-where-they-live/
  13. Accepting a hypothesis depends on the importance of being mistaken. It can be considered a judgment with ethics attached.
    Without accounting for multiple values and preferences in policy design, scientific insights risk becoming politicized, potentially reinforcing dominant parties’ interests in funneling action while shifting risks to vulnerable populations.
    Roger A. Pielke Jr. advocated for taking the role of saying "How about these other ideas?" instead of taking a position on currently debated topics.

    ref. (2007). "The Honest Broker: Making Sense of Science in Policy and Politics" 🧩 🧵

    #policy #uncertainty #uncertainties #robustness #probabilities #futures #anticipation #IAMs #science #modelling #modeling #risks #riskAssessment #unknowns #governance #bias #workCollectives #institutions #Pielke

  14. The difference between assessing "traditional" risks and assessing AI risks

    The full conversation with Aaron Barnes-Wilding (Barnveil) available here👇

    youtube.com/watch?v=hfLPtUJb3-Y

    #Quantidal #AIGovernance #RiskAssessment #Podcast #AI

  15. A quotation from John Adams

    I had met with an Observation among regular Officers, that Mankind were naturally divided into three Sorts. One third of them are animated at the first appearance of danger, and will press forward to meet it and examine it; another third are allarmed at it: but will neither advance nor retreat, till they know the nature of it: but stand to meet it: the remaining third will run or fly upon the first thought of it.

    John Adams (1735–1826) American lawyer, Founding Father, statesman, US President (1797–1801)
    Autobiography, Notes on Diary Entry for 1776-10-01 (1807)

    More about this quote: wist.info/adams-john/8389/

    #quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #johnadams #advance #alarm #bravery #courage #cowardice #danger #excitement #fear #panic #retreat #risk #riskassessment #runningaway

  16. 🧪 How scientists assess chemical hazards and risks is evolving.

    New approach methodologies (#NAMs) are helping reduce animal testing and improve the science and relevance of risk assessments.

    Learn about EFSA's work and global cooperation:
    🔗 link.europa.eu/3Jb3Rc

    #NAMs #RiskAssessment

    New approach methodologies (NA...

  17. 📘 Want to understand why dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs matter for food safety?

    Our new plain language summary breaks down the key findings from EFSA's latest risk assessment in a clear and accessible way.

    🔗 Read here: link.europa.eu/JdYjhf

    #FoodSafety #Dioxins #RiskAssessment

  18. 1/

    Commentary in Science [1] on #RiskAssessment of #pesticides in #EU and potential effects of a proposed "simplification package".

    Interesting perspective on [1] by @Jeroen_van_der_Sluijs
    mstdn.science/@Jeroen_van_der_

    The authors of the commentary argument how implementing the "package would amplify rather than resolve shortcomings of current environmental risk assessment" jeopardising the "goal to maintain high standards for the protection of human and environmental health" [1]

  19. Hydroclimate Volatility On A Warming Earth
    --
    doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-006 <-- shared 2025 paper
    --
    newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/flo <-- shared UCLA article, “Floods, Droughts, Then Fires: Hydroclimate Whiplash Is Speeding Up Globally “
    --
    H/T @Daniel Swain
    “Hydroclimate volatility refers to sudden, large and/or frequent transitions between very dry and very wet conditions. In this Review, we examine how hydroclimate volatility is anticipated to evolve with anthropogenic warming. Using a metric of ‘hydroclimate whiplash’ based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, global-averaged subseasonal (3-month) and interannual (12-month) whiplash have increased by 31–66% and 8–31%, respectively, since the mid-twentieth century. Further increases are anticipated with ongoing warming, including subseasonal increases of 113% and interannual increases of 52% over land areas with 3 °C of warming; these changes are largest at high latitudes and from northern Africa eastward into South Asia. Extensive evidence links these increases primarily to thermodynamics, namely the rising water-vapour-holding capacity and potential evaporative demand of the atmosphere. Increases in hydroclimate volatility will amplify hazards associated with rapid swings between wet and dry states (including flash floods, wildfires, landslides and disease outbreaks), and could accelerate a water management shift towards co-management of drought and flood risks. A clearer understanding of plausible future trajectories of hydroclimate volatility requires expanded focus on the response of atmospheric circulation to regional and global forcings, as well as land–ocean–atmosphere feedbacks, using large ensemble climate model simulations, storm-resolving high-resolution models and emerging machine learning methods…
    #water #hydrology #hydroclimate #whiplash #global #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #weatherwhiplash #ecogeomorphology #sustainability #ecology# ###
    #water #hydrology #hydroclimate #volatility #dry #wet #drought #flood #flooding #wildfire #landslide #massmovement #whiplash #global #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #weatherwhiplash #ecogeomorphology #sustainability #ecology #hydrogeomorphology #climatechange #extremeweather #anthropogenicwarming #climate #weather #connection #StandardizedPrecipitationEvapotranspiration #precipitation #rainfall #research #evapotranspiration #risk #hazard #riskassessment #disease #pandemic #publichealth #publicsafety #waterquality #watersecurity #watermanagement #hydrography #atmospheric #regional #global #forcing #climatemodel #model #modeling #AI #machinelearning

  20. Permafrost Distribution, Degradation, And Potential Mass Movement Cascades In The Western Himalaya Using Machine Learning And Numerical Models
    --
    doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-002 <-- shared paper
    --
    doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-220 <-- shared (earlier) paper
    --
    doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2025. <-- shared (earlier) paper
    --
    H/T @abhinav Alangadan
    “Can we develop a first-order understanding of permafrost degradation and glacial lakes exposed to degradation-induced mass movements in the Himalaya?
    [The authors] tried to address this question. The study [first link above] integrates machine learning, statistical modeling, and numerical modeling to investigate high-resolution permafrost distribution, potential degradation, and associated mass-movement hazards in the Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh, India.
    Using rock glaciers as proxies, [they] generated a high-resolution permafrost distribution using machine learning, while potential degradation zones were delineated using the 0°C isotherm as a first-order indicator. [They] further identified glacial lakes located near potentially degrading permafrost zones and reconstructed their bathymetry. A detailed scenario-based GLOF process-chain simulation was then carried out for Kashang Lake using r.avaflow and HEC-RAS.
    [Their] results indicate that seven glacial lakes in #Kinnaur are located close to potentially degrading permafrost zones. The simulations further show that a potential GLOF from Kashang Lake could inundate critical downstream infrastructure, including nearly 11 km of National Highway 5…”
    #permafrost #distribution #GIS #spatial #mapping #Himalayas #India #Kinnaur #HimachalPradesh #KashangLake #massmovement #engineeringgeology #machinelearning #AI #model #modeling #numericalmodel #glaciallakes #glaciet #glacial #glaciallakeoutburstflood #GLOF #cryosphere #geostatistics #rockglaciers #GeoAI #bathymetry #processchainsimulation #HECRAS #avaflow #risk #hazard #mitigation #riskassessment #infrastructure #HEP #publicsafety #downstream #avalanche

  21. 🚨 FEMA’s Hazus v7.2 Is Here — A Major Upgrade For Disaster Risk Modeling
    --
    fema.gov/flood-maps/products-t <-- shared link to FEMA HAZUS download, documentation, use case, etc
    --
    [I used to work some with Hazus back in the back, but my career changed path; I still appreciate its strength and unity of purpose (sic) #alldataisspatial]
    H/T @Laban "L.J." Johnson | Founder, LJ Learn & Concordia Initiative | Crisis Support · Leadership Development · Community Resilience | Bridging worlds to help people rise
    “FEMA’s Hazus GIS platform has been updated with a new ArcGIS Pro–based version, bringing faster, more powerful tools for estimating losses from floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, and other natural hazards.
    Key updates in Hazus 7.2 include:
    • Streamlined workflows for flood and hurricane modeling
    • New Earthquake ShakeMap integration using USGS data
    • Expanded and improved results exports and reporting (including geodatabase outputs)
    • Stronger security with known vulnerabilities addressed
    • Performance improvements and optimized installation process
    • [Significantly enhanced and comprehensive summary reports for flood and earthquake are now available for download.]
    • Full integration with ArcGIS Pro (3.4–3.6) for a modern GIS experience
    This release represents a significant step forward in how hazard planners, emergency managers, and GIS professionals analyze and prepare for disaster impacts…”
    --
    “FEMA’s Hazus program provides software, data, methods, and guidance for estimating risk from natural hazards. Hazus can estimate building damages, economic losses, displaced households, casualties, debris generation and more resulting from a natural hazard event and can be used in all phases of emergency management…”
    #HAZUS #fedservice #fedscience #oublicgood #publicsafety #emergencyresponse #software #spatialdata #GIS #spatial #mapping #risk #hazard #riskassessment #naturalhazard #humanimpacts #earthquake #wildfire #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #flood #flooding #cost #damage #economic #publicsafety #publichealth #emergencymanagement #opensource #opendata #tsunami #tornado #hurricane #ShakeMap #infrastructure #planning #policy #preparedness #impacts #geology #engineeringgeology #remotesensing #earthobservation
    @FEMA

  22. 🚨 FEMA’s Hazus v7.2 Is Here — A Major Upgrade For Disaster Risk Modeling
    --
    fema.gov/flood-maps/products-t <-- shared link to FEMA HAZUS download, documentation, use case, etc
    --
    [I used to work some with Hazus back in the back, but my career changed path; I still appreciate its strength and unity of purpose (sic) #alldataisspatial]
    H/T @Laban "L.J." Johnson | Founder, LJ Learn & Concordia Initiative | Crisis Support · Leadership Development · Community Resilience | Bridging worlds to help people rise
    “FEMA’s Hazus GIS platform has been updated with a new ArcGIS Pro–based version, bringing faster, more powerful tools for estimating losses from floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, and other natural hazards.
    Key updates in Hazus 7.2 include:
    • Streamlined workflows for flood and hurricane modeling
    • New Earthquake ShakeMap integration using USGS data
    • Expanded and improved results exports and reporting (including geodatabase outputs)
    • Stronger security with known vulnerabilities addressed
    • Performance improvements and optimized installation process
    • [Significantly enhanced and comprehensive summary reports for flood and earthquake are now available for download.]
    • Full integration with ArcGIS Pro (3.4–3.6) for a modern GIS experience
    This release represents a significant step forward in how hazard planners, emergency managers, and GIS professionals analyze and prepare for disaster impacts…”
    --
    “FEMA’s Hazus program provides software, data, methods, and guidance for estimating risk from natural hazards. Hazus can estimate building damages, economic losses, displaced households, casualties, debris generation and more resulting from a natural hazard event and can be used in all phases of emergency management…”
    #HAZUS #fedservice #fedscience #oublicgood #publicsafety #emergencyresponse #software #spatialdata #GIS #spatial #mapping #risk #hazard #riskassessment #naturalhazard #humanimpacts #earthquake #wildfire #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #flood #flooding #cost #damage #economic #publicsafety #publichealth #emergencymanagement #opensource #opendata #tsunami #tornado #hurricane #ShakeMap #infrastructure #planning #policy #preparedness #impacts #geology #engineeringgeology #remotesensing #earthobservation
    @FEMA

  23. 🚨 FEMA’s Hazus v7.2 Is Here — A Major Upgrade For Disaster Risk Modeling
    --
    fema.gov/flood-maps/products-t <-- shared link to FEMA HAZUS download, documentation, use case, etc
    --
    [I used to work some with Hazus back in the back, but my career changed path; I still appreciate its strength and unity of purpose (sic) #alldataisspatial]
    H/T @Laban "L.J." Johnson | Founder, LJ Learn & Concordia Initiative | Crisis Support · Leadership Development · Community Resilience | Bridging worlds to help people rise
    “FEMA’s Hazus GIS platform has been updated with a new ArcGIS Pro–based version, bringing faster, more powerful tools for estimating losses from floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, and other natural hazards.
    Key updates in Hazus 7.2 include:
    • Streamlined workflows for flood and hurricane modeling
    • New Earthquake ShakeMap integration using USGS data
    • Expanded and improved results exports and reporting (including geodatabase outputs)
    • Stronger security with known vulnerabilities addressed
    • Performance improvements and optimized installation process
    • [Significantly enhanced and comprehensive summary reports for flood and earthquake are now available for download.]
    • Full integration with ArcGIS Pro (3.4–3.6) for a modern GIS experience
    This release represents a significant step forward in how hazard planners, emergency managers, and GIS professionals analyze and prepare for disaster impacts…”
    --
    “FEMA’s Hazus program provides software, data, methods, and guidance for estimating risk from natural hazards. Hazus can estimate building damages, economic losses, displaced households, casualties, debris generation and more resulting from a natural hazard event and can be used in all phases of emergency management…”
    #HAZUS #fedservice #fedscience #oublicgood #publicsafety #emergencyresponse #software #spatialdata #GIS #spatial #mapping #risk #hazard #riskassessment #naturalhazard #humanimpacts #earthquake #wildfire #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #flood #flooding #cost #damage #economic #publicsafety #publichealth #emergencymanagement #opensource #opendata #tsunami #tornado #hurricane #ShakeMap #infrastructure #planning #policy #preparedness #impacts #geology #engineeringgeology #remotesensing #earthobservation
    @FEMA

  24. 🚨 FEMA’s Hazus v7.2 Is Here — A Major Upgrade For Disaster Risk Modeling
    --
    fema.gov/flood-maps/products-t <-- shared link to FEMA HAZUS download, documentation, use case, etc
    --
    [I used to work some with Hazus back in the back, but my career changed path; I still appreciate its strength and unity of purpose (sic) #alldataisspatial]
    H/T @Laban "L.J." Johnson | Founder, LJ Learn & Concordia Initiative | Crisis Support · Leadership Development · Community Resilience | Bridging worlds to help people rise
    “FEMA’s Hazus GIS platform has been updated with a new ArcGIS Pro–based version, bringing faster, more powerful tools for estimating losses from floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, and other natural hazards.
    Key updates in Hazus 7.2 include:
    • Streamlined workflows for flood and hurricane modeling
    • New Earthquake ShakeMap integration using USGS data
    • Expanded and improved results exports and reporting (including geodatabase outputs)
    • Stronger security with known vulnerabilities addressed
    • Performance improvements and optimized installation process
    • [Significantly enhanced and comprehensive summary reports for flood and earthquake are now available for download.]
    • Full integration with ArcGIS Pro (3.4–3.6) for a modern GIS experience
    This release represents a significant step forward in how hazard planners, emergency managers, and GIS professionals analyze and prepare for disaster impacts…”
    --
    “FEMA’s Hazus program provides software, data, methods, and guidance for estimating risk from natural hazards. Hazus can estimate building damages, economic losses, displaced households, casualties, debris generation and more resulting from a natural hazard event and can be used in all phases of emergency management…”
    #HAZUS #fedservice #fedscience #oublicgood #publicsafety #emergencyresponse #software #spatialdata #GIS #spatial #mapping #risk #hazard #riskassessment #naturalhazard #humanimpacts #earthquake #wildfire #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #flood #flooding #cost #damage #economic #publicsafety #publichealth #emergencymanagement #opensource #opendata #tsunami #tornado #hurricane #ShakeMap #infrastructure #planning #policy #preparedness #impacts #geology #engineeringgeology #remotesensing #earthobservation
    @FEMA

  25. 🚨 FEMA’s Hazus v7.2 Is Here — A Major Upgrade For Disaster Risk Modeling
    --
    fema.gov/flood-maps/products-t <-- shared link to FEMA HAZUS download, documentation, use case, etc
    --
    [I used to work some with Hazus back in the back, but my career changed path; I still appreciate its strength and unity of purpose (sic) ]
    H/T @Laban "L.J." Johnson | Founder, LJ Learn & Concordia Initiative | Crisis Support · Leadership Development · Community Resilience | Bridging worlds to help people rise
    “FEMA’s Hazus GIS platform has been updated with a new ArcGIS Pro–based version, bringing faster, more powerful tools for estimating losses from floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, and other natural hazards.
    Key updates in Hazus 7.2 include:
    • Streamlined workflows for flood and hurricane modeling
    • New Earthquake ShakeMap integration using USGS data
    • Expanded and improved results exports and reporting (including geodatabase outputs)
    • Stronger security with known vulnerabilities addressed
    • Performance improvements and optimized installation process
    • [Significantly enhanced and comprehensive summary reports for flood and earthquake are now available for download.]
    • Full integration with ArcGIS Pro (3.4–3.6) for a modern GIS experience
    This release represents a significant step forward in how hazard planners, emergency managers, and GIS professionals analyze and prepare for disaster impacts…”
    --
    “FEMA’s Hazus program provides software, data, methods, and guidance for estimating risk from natural hazards. Hazus can estimate building damages, economic losses, displaced households, casualties, debris generation and more resulting from a natural hazard event and can be used in all phases of emergency management…”

    @FEMA

  26. Climate Warming and Ice Weakening Trigger Alpine Glacier Collapses - The Marmolada Case [Dolomites, Northern Italy]
    --
    doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121279 <-- shared paper
    --
    doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3027- <-- shared technical article
    --
    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Mar <-- shared Wikipedia page
    --
    [anecdotal – in the early 1990s, I chose to spend a winter as a ski bum/guide, living in Arabba, Dolomites, Sud Tyrol; I still remember the excellent days when I got to ski on the Marmolada]
    --
    “PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: On 3 July 2022, a portion of the Marmolada glacier, near Punta Rocca, collapsed and caused the death of 11 mountaineers. This dramatic event had a considerable impact on the media, and authorities were concerned about the risk that other collapses might occur in this and other glaciers of the Dolomites, a well-renowned mountain region of the southeastern Alps and one of the UNESCO World Heritage sites. [They] analyzed the possible causes of the collapse by developing a three-dimensional thermo-mechanical model. The analysis concluded that the collapse was caused by increased internal ice temperature and the development of a dense network of fractures, reducing the ice shear strength, with melting water that possibly contributed by increasing the basal pressure. [They] also showed that collapsing conditions can be identified with a simplified model version approximating the sliding basal surface as a plane with a slope equal to the surface slope. The developed approach can be used in hazard identification and risk analysis of mountain glaciers…”
    #EngineeringGeology #RockMechanics #GlacierCollapse #RiskAssessment #italy #Dolomites #SudTyrol #glacier #melting #massmovement #risk #hazard #analysis #Marmolada #glaciercollapse #cryosphere #warning #mitigation #hazardassessment #alpine #climatechange #globalwarming #massloss #instability #model #modeling #thermomechanical #spatialanalysis #temperature #parameters #ice #shearstrength #water #hydrology #hydrography #basal #waterpressure #meltwater #fracturing #riskanalysis #mountainglaciers

  27. A quotation from Terry Pratchett

    And Sergeant Colon once again knew a secret about bravery. It was arguably a kind of enhanced cowardice — the knowledge that while death may await you if you advance it will be a picnic compared to the certain living hell that awaits should you retreat.

    Terry Pratchett (1948-2015) English author
    Discworld No. 21, Jingo (1988)

    More about this quote: wist.info/pratchett-terry/8091…

    #quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #terrypratchett #discworld #alternatives #bravery #costbenefit #courage #cowardice #danger #death #informeddecision #punishment #retreat #riskanalysis #riskassessment

  28. What Is a Supply Chain Attack? Lessons from Recent Incidents

    924 words, 5 minutes read time.

    I’ve been in computer programming with a vested interest in Cybersecurity long enough to know that your most dangerous threats rarely come through the obvious channels. It’s not always a hacker pounding at your firewall or a phishing email landing in an inbox. Sometimes, the breach comes quietly through the vendors, service providers, and software updates you rely on every day. That’s the harsh reality of supply chain attacks. These incidents exploit trust, infiltrating organizations by targeting upstream partners or seemingly benign components. They’re not theoretical—they’re real, costly, and increasingly sophisticated. In this article, I’m going to break down what supply chain attacks are, examine lessons from high-profile incidents, and share actionable insights for SOC analysts, CISOs, and anyone responsible for protecting enterprise assets.

    Understanding Supply Chain Attacks: How Trusted Vendors Can Be Threat Vectors

    A supply chain attack occurs when a threat actor compromises an organization through a third party, whether that’s a software vendor, cloud provider, managed service provider, or even a hardware supplier. The key distinction from conventional attacks is that the adversary leverages trust relationships. Your defenses often treat trusted partners as safe zones, which makes these attacks particularly insidious. The infamous SolarWinds breach in 2020 is a perfect example. Hackers injected malicious code into an update of the Orion platform, and thousands of organizations unknowingly installed the compromised software. From the perspective of a SOC analyst, it’s a nightmare scenario: alerts may look normal, endpoints behave according to expectation, and yet an attacker has already bypassed perimeter defenses. Supply chain compromises come in many forms: software updates carrying hidden malware, tampered firmware or hardware, and cloud or SaaS services used as stepping stones for broader attacks. The lesson here is brutal but simple: every external dependency is a potential attack vector, and assuming trust without verification is a vulnerability in itself.

    Lessons from Real-World Supply Chain Attacks

    History has provided some of the most instructive lessons in this area, and the pain was often widespread. The NotPetya attack in 2017 masqueraded as a routine software update for a Ukrainian accounting package but quickly spread globally, leaving a trail of destruction across multiple sectors. It was not a random incident—it was a strategic strike exploiting the implicit trust organizations placed in a single provider. Then came Kaseya in 2021, where attackers leveraged a managed service provider to distribute ransomware to hundreds of businesses in a single stroke. The compromise of one MSP cascaded through client systems, illustrating that upstream vulnerabilities can multiply downstream consequences exponentially. Even smaller incidents, such as a compromised open-source library or a misconfigured cloud service, can serve as a launchpad for attackers. What these incidents have in common is efficiency, stealth, and scale. Attackers increasingly prefer the supply chain route because it requires fewer direct compromises while yielding enormous operational impact. For anyone working in a SOC, these cases underscore the need to monitor not just your environment but the upstream components that support it, as blind trust can be fatal.

    Mitigating Supply Chain Risk: Visibility, Zero Trust, and Preparedness

    Mitigating supply chain risk requires a proactive, multifaceted approach. The first step is visibility—knowing exactly what software, services, and hardware your organization depends on. You cannot defend what you cannot see. Mapping these dependencies allows you to understand which systems are critical and which could serve as entry points for attackers. Second, you need to enforce Zero Trust principles. Even trusted vendors should have segmented access and stringent authentication. Multi-factor authentication, network segmentation, and least-privilege policies reduce the potential blast radius if a compromise occurs. Threat hunting also becomes crucial, as anomalies from trusted sources are often the first signs of a breach. Beyond technical controls, preparation is equally important. Tabletop exercises, updated incident response plans, and comprehensive logging equip teams to react swiftly when compromise is detected. For CISOs, it also means communicating supply chain risk clearly to executives and boards. Stakeholders must understand that absolute prevention is impossible, and resilience—rapid detection, containment, and recovery—is the only realistic safeguard.

    The Strategic Imperative: Assume Breach and Build Resilience

    The reality of supply chain attacks is unavoidable: organizations are connected in complex webs, and attackers exploit these dependencies with increasing sophistication. The lessons are clear: maintain visibility over your entire ecosystem, enforce Zero Trust rigorously, hunt for subtle anomalies, and prepare incident response plans that include upstream components. These attacks are not hypothetical scenarios—they are the evolving face of cybersecurity threats, capable of causing widespread disruption. Supply chain security is not a checkbox or a one-time audit; it is a mindset that prioritizes vigilance, resilience, and strategic thinking. By assuming breach, questioning trust, and actively monitoring both internal and upstream environments, security teams can turn potential vulnerabilities into manageable risks. The stakes are high, but so are the rewards for those who approach supply chain security with discipline, foresight, and a relentless commitment to defense.

    Call to Action

    If this breakdown helped you think a little clearer about the threats out there, don’t just click away. Subscribe for more no-nonsense security insights, drop a comment with your thoughts or questions, or reach out if there’s a topic you want me to tackle next. Stay sharp out there.

    D. Bryan King

    Sources

    Disclaimer:

    The views and opinions expressed in this post are solely those of the author. The information provided is based on personal research, experience, and understanding of the subject matter at the time of writing. Readers should consult relevant experts or authorities for specific guidance related to their unique situations.

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