#riskassessment — Public Fediverse posts

"We demonstrate a crucial link between the projected increase in spatially compounding hot, wet, and dry extremes and the amplification of global economic exposure. […] Our findings reveal that regions with lower present-day economic wealth are more likely to face extreme events simultaneously with other areas, amplifying the potential threats to their economic stability."

Biess, B., Gudmundsson, L. & Seneviratne, S.I. "Global economic exposure to climate change amplified by spatially compounding climate extremes" (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-70127-6 🧵

#droughts #floods #heatwaves #disasters #events #risk #riskAssessment #adapting #climate #climateEmergency #climateChange #globalWarming #globalHeating #economy

#ExtremeWeather #RiskAssessment #WorstCase #society #SystemCollapse #extinction

Kemp et al. 1 Aug 2022, PNAS 119(34):e2108146119

Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios

https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.21081461

#climate #ClimateScience #climatechange #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis

#ClimateCommunication #RiskAssessment #adaptation #WorstCase #ExtremeWeather

Bevacqua et al. 25 March 2026, Nature 651:946-953

Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10237-9

#climate #ClimateScience #climatechange #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis

#FYI #PaulBeckwith video lecture & literature review #ExtremeWeather #RiskAssessment

Paul about the necessity to account for #WorstCase scenarios

Supported by Sir Isaac Newton ESP*

https://youtu.be/5ORCfwEPGTQ

(*Emotional Support Puppy)

#climate #ClimateScience #climatechange #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis

"Uncertainties in future food security will remain large."

"Out of 42 models, 10 models show climate outcomes at a 2 °C warming that are well beyond the multimodel mean at 4 °C of global warming (Fig. 3b). This stresses the need for a careful assessment of their plausibility by evaluating the underlying physical processes. Yet, regardless of pending plausibility checks, these results also call for examining the potential impacts of extreme climate outcomes on global crop production through crop modelling, which can incorporate factors such as irrigation, soil properties and complex management practices."

Emanuele Bevacqua, Erich Fischer, Jana Sillmann, Jakob Zscheischler (2026). "Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes" https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10237-9

#maize #wheat #soybean #rice #riskAssessment #anticipation #climateChange #futures #droughts #agriculture #food #inflation #foodSecurity

…

The 2026 episode questions the livability of territories.
"We do not rule out having temperatures around 48-50 degrees in a punctual and very regional manner in France."

"Climate change which is linked to our predatory and unsustainable lifestyles is emerging."

We need to quit management and embrace transformation.
"The priority no longer is to return to normal, no longer to do things as before, it is to change."

There are worldviews to transform.

Christophe Cassou researches climate. Listen to him in French: https://www.radiofrance.fr/franceculture/podcasts/l-invite-e-des-matins-d-ete/christophe-cassou-face-a-l-ete-cataclysmique-vivre-ce-que-l-on-a-passe-sa-vie-a-annoncer-2357103

…

#foresight #adaptation #habitability #livability #climateForcing #carbon #climateDrift #wildfires #climateChange #climate #ecologicalTransition #greenTransition #anticipation #forests #pines #France #risks #riskAssessment

Society must anticipate: prepare not for this year's climate but for the future climates. 🧵

#livability #climatePolicy #riskManagement #riskAssessment #policy #adaptation #forests #climateDrift #climateChange #heatwaves #naturalDisasters #resilience #agriculture #wildfires #poliSky #foresight

Society must anticipate: prepare not for this year's climate but for the future climates. 🧵

#futures #risks #risk #riskManagement #riskAssessment #livability #habitability #climatePolicy #policy #adaptation #plantations #forestry #climateDrift #climateChange #climateFailure #climateCollapse #drought #heatwaves #naturalDisasters #resilience #agriculture #megafires #wildfire #wildfires

#weather #ExtremeWeather #RiskAssessment #AttributionScience

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine August 4th, 2026

Attribution of Extreme Weather and Climate Events and their Impacts

https://www.nationalacademies.org/projects/DELS-BASCPR-23-02

#climate #ClimateScience #climatechange #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis

RE: https://mastodon.social/@paulbeckwith/117055792281374330

#FYI #PaulBeckwith video lecture & literature review #ExtremeWeather #RiskAssessment

Beckwith, Paul Beckwith climate detective investigates the new Extreme Event Attribution Report

#climate #ClimateScience #climatechange #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis

…
The EU's adaptation framework serves as a distraction. The cover for treating adaptation as purely technical is thinner than it has been in years. This summer ongoing disasters offer an opening to:
* discuss adaptation;
* look at the perpetrators: https://fed.brid.gy/r/https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:ghfylraepxvzz7zjex4nelzw/post/3msbmrpwlhc2v

_References_

The present thread was inspired by two other voices about the same technocratic output: http://strategicclimaterisks.substack.com/p/how-the-eu-adaptation-framework-vastly

Here is the announcement of the report from the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, 'Strengthening resilience to climate change – Recommendations for an effective EU adaptation policy framework': https://climate-advisory-board.europa.eu/news/escalating-climate-impacts-demand-urgent-coordinated-adaptation-across-the-eu

#climatePolicy #adaptation #climateChange #livability #policy #climate #riskAssessment #governance #uncertainty #EU #EuropeanUnion #Europe

#Adaptation gets treated as technical work when it's extremely political. Someone decides which communities are defended, which regions are given up, and who pays.
France's mega-basin enforcers show how such centralization triggers organised resistance: https://climatejustice.social/@breton/112934411029720286

Whatever gets planned has to be delivered inside worsening instability.
Budgets raided by the latest emergency, civil services running on depleted trust, supply chains competing against reconstruction elsewhere.
Researchers call this derailment risk, and every plan should account for it: https://scri.org.uk/publications/report-derailment-risk
…

#climatePolicy #adaptation #climateChange #livability #policy #climate #riskAssessment #derailment #climateEmergency #agriculture

The EU report is detailed and gives an impression that a 3°C planet would be harsh but manageable under the same institutions.
The report does not wonder about unknown unknowns. It does not address supply-chain disruption, financial contagion or people displacement. It lives in a fancy Fortress Europe.

The report also never mentions #AMOC once, even as the evidence for the risk of its collapse to Europe hardens and Iceland starts treating it as a national security threat:
https://mas.to/@maugendre/111917327688619004 🧵

#climatePolicy #adaptation #climateChange #livability #policy #climate #futures #EUPol #Europe #risks #riskAssessment

New York State Department of Financial Services announced on August 5 that Order Express, Inc., a licensed money transmitter, will pay a $250,000 penalty for violations of DFS’s cybersecurity regulation (23 NYCRR Part 500).

Order Express suffered a ransomware attack in 2022, which they reported appropriately. But then the DFS's investigation revealed that the entity did not have adequate cybersecurity risk assessment or plan.

Read more at: https://www.dfs.ny.gov/reports_and_publications/press_releases/pr20260805

#NYSDFS #OrderExpress #databreach #cybersecurity #FinSec #ransomware #riskassessment

Flood And Landslide Susceptibility Assessment And Multi Hazard Interaction Mapping Using Machine Learning And GIS For Sustainable Settlement Planning In Nepal
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https://doi.org/10.1007/s44288-026-00670-8 <-- shared paper
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H/T @Narayan Thapa | Earth Data Modeling
“Nepal lies within an active seismic zone and is influenced by most dynamic climatic systems in the world. It faces compounding floods and landslide threats. Impacts are worst where multi-hazard interactions create spatially linked corridors. Despite frequent co-occurrence, national-scale assessments remain limited. This study presents machine learning and GIS-based approach to map nationwide susceptibility to floods, landslides, and identify their potential interaction zones, and delineate critical multi-hazard flow zones through spatial adjacency analysis. Using Google Earth Engine, the Random Forest model integrates topographic, climatic, environmental, and hydrological datasets to overcome subjective expert-driven methods. The model achieved strong predictive accuracy (AUC: 0.84 for floods, 0.85 for landslides). The results showed 19% of Nepal’s lowlands are medium to very highly susceptible to inundation, threatening approximately 900,000 people and over 3.4 million buildings; whilst in the hilly terrains, 40% is susceptible to slope-failure endangering 200,000 people and about 0.6 million buildings. K-means clustering followed by spatial adjacency analysis identified four spatial zonation: 81% of national area as low-hazard zone, 9% as flood-only zone, 5% as landslide-only zone, and 5% as interaction zones. Critical multi-hazard flow zone covering 7,588 km² represents spatially connected corridors linking interaction zones to downstream flood-prone populated areas, affecting 88 km² built-up land and 1,722 km² cropland. These zones represent susceptibility-based spatial connectivity rather than physically simulated cascading processes. These findings support recommendations for risk-informed land-use planning, resilient infrastructure development and climate adaptation aligned to sustainable development and investment risk screening…”
#GIS #spatial #mapping #GoogleEarthEngine #MachineLearning #RemoteSensing #GeospatialAI #DisasterRiskReduction #MultiHazard #ClimateAdaptation #climatechange #extremeweather #LandUsePlanning #SustainableDevelopment #InfrastructurePlanning #RiskAssessment #NaturalHazards #Nepal #EarthObservation #HinduKushHimalaya #HKH #HinduKush #Himalayas #risk #hazard #assessment #national #regional #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #massmovement #landslide #assessment #mitigation #water #hydrology #flood #flooding #sustainability

Modeling Flood Susceptibility Utilizing Advanced Ensemble Machine Learning Techniques in the Marand Plain [Iran]
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https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences15030110 <-- shared paper
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H/T @Geosciences MDPI
“This study applies advanced machine learning algorithms to map flood susceptibility in northwest Iran. The results demonstrate strong predictive performance, with the Locally Weighted Linear model delivering the highest accuracy and providing valuable guidance for flood-risk management and disaster mitigation…”
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“Flooding is one of the most significant natural hazards in Iran, primarily due to the country’s arid and semi-arid climate, irregular rainfall patterns, and substantial changes in watershed conditions. These factors combine to make floods a frequent cause of disasters. In this case study, flood susceptibility patterns in the Marand Plain, located in the East Azerbaijan Province in northwest Iran, were analyzed using five machine learning (ML) algorithms: M5P model tree, Random SubSpace (RSS), Random Forest (RF), Bagging, and Locally Weighted Linear (LWL). The modeling process incorporated twelve meteorological, hydrological, and geographical factors affecting floods at 485 identified flood-prone points. The data were analyzed using a geographic information system, with the dataset divided into 70% for training and 30% for testing to build and validate the models. An information gain ratio and multicollinearity analysis were employed to assess the influence of various factors on flood occurrence, and flood-related variables were classified using quantile classification. The frequency ratio method was used to evaluate the significance of each factor. Model performance was evaluated using statistical measures, including the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. All models demonstrated robust performance, with an area under the ROC curve (AUROC) exceeding 0.90. Among the models, the LWL algorithm delivered the most accurate predictions, followed by RF, M5P, Bagging, and RSS. The LWL-generated flood susceptibility map classified 9.79% of the study area as highly susceptible to flooding, 20.73% as high, 38.51% as moderate, 29.23% as low, and 1.74% as very low. The findings of this research provide valuable insights for government agencies, local authorities, and policymakers in designing strategies to mitigate flood-related risks. This study offers a practical framework for reducing the impact of future floods through informed decision-making and risk management strategies…”
#FloodSusceptibility #FloodRisk #MachineLearning #GIS #NaturalHazards #DisasterManagement #FloodModeling #Hydrology #EnvironmentalMonitoring #RiskAssessment #GeospatialAnalysis #ClimateResilience #GIS #spatial #mapping #Iran #MarandPlain #EastAzerbaijan #machinelearning #AI #floodhazard #floodvulnerability #flood #flooding #water #hydrography #hydrology #model #modeling #risk #hazard #rainfall #precipitation #extremeweather #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #modelperformance #policy #planning #mitigation #design #riskmanagement

"Climate change is playing out at the extreme end of what we had anticipated. That extreme end is not what's being used to guide the planning."

#climatechange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis #RiskAssessment #preparedness #resilience

"Climate change is playing out at the extreme end of what we had anticipated. That extreme end is not what's being used to guide the planning."

#climatechange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis #RiskAssessment #preparedness #resilience

#NovaraMedia #short #RiskAssessment #preparedness #resilience #heat #heatdome #heatwave #drought #wildfires #ExtremeWeather #climateEmergency

www.youtube.com/shorts/Mxn7n...

#climatechange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis

Climate Chaos: Our Worst-Case ...

#NovaraMedia #short #RiskAssessment #preparedness #resilience #heat #heatdome #heatwave #drought #wildfires #ExtremeWeather #climateEmergency

"the type of events that we're seeing now are signs of not just an emergency situation, but of a trajectory that will become unsurvivable, not just for people in the tropics, but for people in the SW of France."

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Mxn7nh_x4og

#climatechange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis

University of Washington: 6.5 million Americans face landslide risks — a new database shows where they live. “The new Landslide Exposure Database is the first resource to map building-level landslide risk for the entire U.S. The database, developed by University of Washington researchers, rates 128 million buildings by landslide susceptibility, and uses socioeconomic data to assess […]

Report released after Sheffield tram hits pedestrians http://dlvr.it/TTlv28 #RailAccidentInvestigationBranchRAIB #RailNews #RiskAssessment

Accepting a hypothesis depends on the importance of being mistaken. It can be considered a judgment with ethics attached.
Without accounting for multiple values and preferences in policy design, scientific insights risk becoming politicized, potentially reinforcing dominant parties’ interests in funneling action while shifting risks to vulnerable populations.
Roger A. Pielke Jr. advocated for taking the role of saying "How about these other ideas?" instead of taking a position on currently debated topics.

ref. (2007). "The Honest Broker: Making Sense of Science in Policy and Politics" 🧩 🧵

#policy #uncertainty #uncertainties #robustness #probabilities #futures #anticipation #IAMs #science #modelling #modeling #risks #riskAssessment #unknowns #governance #bias #workCollectives #institutions #Pielke

The difference between assessing "traditional" risks and assessing AI risks

The full conversation with Aaron Barnes-Wilding (Barnveil) available here👇

https://youtube.com/watch?v=hfLPtUJb3-Y

#Quantidal #AIGovernance #RiskAssessment #Podcast #AI

A quotation from John Adams

I had met with an Observation among regular Officers, that Mankind were naturally divided into three Sorts. One third of them are animated at the first appearance of danger, and will press forward to meet it and examine it; another third are allarmed at it: but will neither advance nor retreat, till they know the nature of it: but stand to meet it: the remaining third will run or fly upon the first thought of it.

John Adams (1735–1826) American lawyer, Founding Father, statesman, US President (1797–1801)
Autobiography, Notes on Diary Entry for 1776-10-01 (1807)

More about this quote: wist.info/adams-john/8389/

#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #johnadams #advance #alarm #bravery #courage #cowardice #danger #excitement #fear #panic #retreat #risk #riskassessment #runningaway

🧪 How scientists assess chemical hazards and risks is evolving.

New approach methodologies (#NAMs) are helping reduce animal testing and improve the science and relevance of risk assessments.

Learn about EFSA's work and global cooperation:
🔗 link.europa.eu/3Jb3Rc

#NAMs #RiskAssessment

New approach methodologies (NA...

📘 Want to understand why dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs matter for food safety?

Our new plain language summary breaks down the key findings from EFSA's latest risk assessment in a clear and accessible way.

🔗 Read here: link.europa.eu/JdYjhf

#FoodSafety #Dioxins #RiskAssessment

1/

Commentary in Science [1] on #RiskAssessment of #pesticides in #EU and potential effects of a proposed "simplification package".

Interesting perspective on [1] by @Jeroen_van_der_Sluijs
https://mstdn.science/@Jeroen_van_der_Sluijs/116780662416469708

The authors of the commentary argument how implementing the "package would amplify rather than resolve shortcomings of current environmental risk assessment" jeopardising the "goal to maintain high standards for the protection of human and environmental health" [1]

Hydroclimate Volatility On A Warming Earth
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00624-z <-- shared 2025 paper
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https://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/floods-droughts-fires-hydroclimate-whiplash-speeding-up-globally <-- shared UCLA article, “Floods, Droughts, Then Fires: Hydroclimate Whiplash Is Speeding Up Globally “
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H/T @Daniel Swain
“Hydroclimate volatility refers to sudden, large and/or frequent transitions between very dry and very wet conditions. In this Review, we examine how hydroclimate volatility is anticipated to evolve with anthropogenic warming. Using a metric of ‘hydroclimate whiplash’ based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, global-averaged subseasonal (3-month) and interannual (12-month) whiplash have increased by 31–66% and 8–31%, respectively, since the mid-twentieth century. Further increases are anticipated with ongoing warming, including subseasonal increases of 113% and interannual increases of 52% over land areas with 3 °C of warming; these changes are largest at high latitudes and from northern Africa eastward into South Asia. Extensive evidence links these increases primarily to thermodynamics, namely the rising water-vapour-holding capacity and potential evaporative demand of the atmosphere. Increases in hydroclimate volatility will amplify hazards associated with rapid swings between wet and dry states (including flash floods, wildfires, landslides and disease outbreaks), and could accelerate a water management shift towards co-management of drought and flood risks. A clearer understanding of plausible future trajectories of hydroclimate volatility requires expanded focus on the response of atmospheric circulation to regional and global forcings, as well as land–ocean–atmosphere feedbacks, using large ensemble climate model simulations, storm-resolving high-resolution models and emerging machine learning methods…
#water #hydrology #hydroclimate #whiplash #global #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #weatherwhiplash #ecogeomorphology #sustainability #ecology# ###
#water #hydrology #hydroclimate #volatility #dry #wet #drought #flood #flooding #wildfire #landslide #massmovement #whiplash #global #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #weatherwhiplash #ecogeomorphology #sustainability #ecology #hydrogeomorphology #climatechange #extremeweather #anthropogenicwarming #climate #weather #connection #StandardizedPrecipitationEvapotranspiration #precipitation #rainfall #research #evapotranspiration #risk #hazard #riskassessment #disease #pandemic #publichealth #publicsafety #waterquality #watersecurity #watermanagement #hydrography #atmospheric #regional #global #forcing #climatemodel #model #modeling #AI #machinelearning