#riskassessment — Public Fediverse posts

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The 2026 episode questions the livability of territories.
"We do not rule out having temperatures around 48-50 degrees in a punctual and very regional manner in France."

"Climate change which is linked to our predatory and unsustainable lifestyles is emerging."

We need to quit management and embrace transformation.
"The priority no longer is to return to normal, no longer to do things as before, it is to change."

There are worldviews to transform.

Christophe Cassou researches climate. Listen to him in French: https://www.radiofrance.fr/franceculture/podcasts/l-invite-e-des-matins-d-ete/christophe-cassou-face-a-l-ete-cataclysmique-vivre-ce-que-l-on-a-passe-sa-vie-a-annoncer-2357103

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#foresight #adaptation #habitability #livability #climateForcing #carbon #climateDrift #wildfires #climateChange #climate #ecologicalTransition #greenTransition #anticipation #forests #pines #France #risks #riskAssessment

Society must anticipate: prepare not for this year's climate but for the future climates. 🧵

#futures #risks #risk #riskManagement #riskAssessment #livability #habitability #climatePolicy #policy #adaptation #plantations #forestry #climateDrift #climateChange #climateFailure #climateCollapse #drought #heatwaves #naturalDisasters #resilience #agriculture #megafires #wildfire #wildfires

Society must anticipate: prepare not for this year's climate but for the future climates. 🧵

#futures #risks #risk #riskManagement #riskAssessment #livability #habitability #climatePolicy #policy #adaptation #plantations #forestry #climateDrift #climateChange #climateFailure #climateCollapse #drought #heatwaves #naturalDisasters #resilience #agriculture #megafires #wildfire #wildfires

Society must anticipate: prepare not for this year's climate but for the future climates. 🧵

#futures #risks #risk #riskManagement #riskAssessment #livability #habitability #climatePolicy #policy #adaptation #plantations #forestry #climateDrift #climateChange #climateFailure #climateCollapse #drought #heatwaves #naturalDisasters #resilience #agriculture #megafires #wildfire #wildfires

Society must anticipate: prepare not for this year's climate but for the future climates. 🧵

#futures #risks #risk #riskManagement #riskAssessment #livability #habitability #climatePolicy #policy #adaptation #plantations #forestry #climateDrift #climateChange #climateFailure #climateCollapse #drought #heatwaves #naturalDisasters #resilience #agriculture #megafires #wildfire #wildfires

Society must anticipate: prepare not for this year's climate but for the future climates. 🧵

#futures #risks #risk #riskManagement #riskAssessment #livability #habitability #climatePolicy #policy #adaptation #plantations #forestry #climateDrift #climateChange #climateFailure #climateCollapse #drought #heatwaves #naturalDisasters #resilience #agriculture #megafires #wildfire #wildfires

Flood And Landslide Susceptibility Assessment And Multi Hazard Interaction Mapping Using Machine Learning And GIS For Sustainable Settlement Planning In Nepal
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https://doi.org/10.1007/s44288-026-00670-8 <-- shared paper
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H/T @Narayan Thapa | Earth Data Modeling
“Nepal lies within an active seismic zone and is influenced by most dynamic climatic systems in the world. It faces compounding floods and landslide threats. Impacts are worst where multi-hazard interactions create spatially linked corridors. Despite frequent co-occurrence, national-scale assessments remain limited. This study presents machine learning and GIS-based approach to map nationwide susceptibility to floods, landslides, and identify their potential interaction zones, and delineate critical multi-hazard flow zones through spatial adjacency analysis. Using Google Earth Engine, the Random Forest model integrates topographic, climatic, environmental, and hydrological datasets to overcome subjective expert-driven methods. The model achieved strong predictive accuracy (AUC: 0.84 for floods, 0.85 for landslides). The results showed 19% of Nepal’s lowlands are medium to very highly susceptible to inundation, threatening approximately 900,000 people and over 3.4 million buildings; whilst in the hilly terrains, 40% is susceptible to slope-failure endangering 200,000 people and about 0.6 million buildings. K-means clustering followed by spatial adjacency analysis identified four spatial zonation: 81% of national area as low-hazard zone, 9% as flood-only zone, 5% as landslide-only zone, and 5% as interaction zones. Critical multi-hazard flow zone covering 7,588 km² represents spatially connected corridors linking interaction zones to downstream flood-prone populated areas, affecting 88 km² built-up land and 1,722 km² cropland. These zones represent susceptibility-based spatial connectivity rather than physically simulated cascading processes. These findings support recommendations for risk-informed land-use planning, resilient infrastructure development and climate adaptation aligned to sustainable development and investment risk screening…”
#GIS #spatial #mapping #GoogleEarthEngine #MachineLearning #RemoteSensing #GeospatialAI #DisasterRiskReduction #MultiHazard #ClimateAdaptation #climatechange #extremeweather #LandUsePlanning #SustainableDevelopment #InfrastructurePlanning #RiskAssessment #NaturalHazards #Nepal #EarthObservation #HinduKushHimalaya #HKH #HinduKush #Himalayas #risk #hazard #assessment #national #regional #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #massmovement #landslide #assessment #mitigation #water #hydrology #flood #flooding #sustainability

Modeling Flood Susceptibility Utilizing Advanced Ensemble Machine Learning Techniques in the Marand Plain [Iran]
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https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences15030110 <-- shared paper
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H/T @Geosciences MDPI
“This study applies advanced machine learning algorithms to map flood susceptibility in northwest Iran. The results demonstrate strong predictive performance, with the Locally Weighted Linear model delivering the highest accuracy and providing valuable guidance for flood-risk management and disaster mitigation…”
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“Flooding is one of the most significant natural hazards in Iran, primarily due to the country’s arid and semi-arid climate, irregular rainfall patterns, and substantial changes in watershed conditions. These factors combine to make floods a frequent cause of disasters. In this case study, flood susceptibility patterns in the Marand Plain, located in the East Azerbaijan Province in northwest Iran, were analyzed using five machine learning (ML) algorithms: M5P model tree, Random SubSpace (RSS), Random Forest (RF), Bagging, and Locally Weighted Linear (LWL). The modeling process incorporated twelve meteorological, hydrological, and geographical factors affecting floods at 485 identified flood-prone points. The data were analyzed using a geographic information system, with the dataset divided into 70% for training and 30% for testing to build and validate the models. An information gain ratio and multicollinearity analysis were employed to assess the influence of various factors on flood occurrence, and flood-related variables were classified using quantile classification. The frequency ratio method was used to evaluate the significance of each factor. Model performance was evaluated using statistical measures, including the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. All models demonstrated robust performance, with an area under the ROC curve (AUROC) exceeding 0.90. Among the models, the LWL algorithm delivered the most accurate predictions, followed by RF, M5P, Bagging, and RSS. The LWL-generated flood susceptibility map classified 9.79% of the study area as highly susceptible to flooding, 20.73% as high, 38.51% as moderate, 29.23% as low, and 1.74% as very low. The findings of this research provide valuable insights for government agencies, local authorities, and policymakers in designing strategies to mitigate flood-related risks. This study offers a practical framework for reducing the impact of future floods through informed decision-making and risk management strategies…”
#FloodSusceptibility #FloodRisk #MachineLearning #GIS #NaturalHazards #DisasterManagement #FloodModeling #Hydrology #EnvironmentalMonitoring #RiskAssessment #GeospatialAnalysis #ClimateResilience #GIS #spatial #mapping #Iran #MarandPlain #EastAzerbaijan #machinelearning #AI #floodhazard #floodvulnerability #flood #flooding #water #hydrography #hydrology #model #modeling #risk #hazard #rainfall #precipitation #extremeweather #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #modelperformance #policy #planning #mitigation #design #riskmanagement

Permafrost Distribution, Degradation, And Potential Mass Movement Cascades In The Western Himalaya Using Machine Learning And Numerical Models
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00217-4 <-- shared paper
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-22051-w <-- shared (earlier) paper
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https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2025.2488532 <-- shared (earlier) paper
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H/T @abhinav Alangadan
“Can we develop a first-order understanding of permafrost degradation and glacial lakes exposed to degradation-induced mass movements in the Himalaya?
[The authors] tried to address this question. The study [first link above] integrates machine learning, statistical modeling, and numerical modeling to investigate high-resolution permafrost distribution, potential degradation, and associated mass-movement hazards in the Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh, India.
Using rock glaciers as proxies, [they] generated a high-resolution permafrost distribution using machine learning, while potential degradation zones were delineated using the 0°C isotherm as a first-order indicator. [They] further identified glacial lakes located near potentially degrading permafrost zones and reconstructed their bathymetry. A detailed scenario-based GLOF process-chain simulation was then carried out for Kashang Lake using r.avaflow and HEC-RAS.
[Their] results indicate that seven glacial lakes in #Kinnaur are located close to potentially degrading permafrost zones. The simulations further show that a potential GLOF from Kashang Lake could inundate critical downstream infrastructure, including nearly 11 km of National Highway 5…”
#permafrost #distribution #GIS #spatial #mapping #Himalayas #India #Kinnaur #HimachalPradesh #KashangLake #massmovement #engineeringgeology #machinelearning #AI #model #modeling #numericalmodel #glaciallakes #glaciet #glacial #glaciallakeoutburstflood #GLOF #cryosphere #geostatistics #rockglaciers #GeoAI #bathymetry #processchainsimulation #HECRAS #avaflow #risk #hazard #mitigation #riskassessment #infrastructure #HEP #publicsafety #downstream #avalanche

Hanging Glaciers In Himalaya Reveal Rising Avalanche Risk
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https://www.nature.com/articles/d44151-026-00072-2 <-- shared technical article
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00205-8 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #risk #hazard #monitoring #engineeringgeology #naturalhazard #Himalaya #Himalayas #Alaknanda #basin #Garhwal #India #ice #cryosphere #massmovement #avalanche #glacier #hangingglacier #cryosphere #remotesensing #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #sentinel2 #DEM #elevation #model #modeling #GlabTop2 #unstable #hanging #BadrinathMana #impact #infrastructure #damage #HEP #urbanisation #development #population #publicsafety #demographics #glacialretreat #melting #Chamoli #disaster #earlywarningsystems #Himalayan #glaciers #instability #warming #climatechange #riskassessment #riskclassification #framework #avaflow #runout #downstream #downslope #water #hydrology #planning #policy #mitigation #geomorphology #geomorphometry

Karst Flash Floods - An Example From The Dinaric Karst (Croatia)
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-195-2006 <-- shared (older) paper
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#flood #flooding #pluvial #fluvial #subsurface #risk #hazard #naturalhazard #disaster #flashflood #infrastructure #damage #building #destabilisation #foundations #karstburst #Marina #Dinaric #Croatia #extremeweather #climatechange #intense #prolonged #rainfall #precipitation #speed #fast #caves #conduits #fractures #aquifers #water #hydrology #groundwater #hydrogeology #waterpressure #sinkhole #subsidence #massmovement #landslide #monitoring #mapping #geology #engineeringgeology #hydroseismic #humanimpacts #lossoflife #death #karstterrain #springs #debris #sediment #cavities #riskassessment #Grazalema #Andalusia #Cadíz #Spain #StormLeonard #emergencymanagement #planning

Unveiling The Environmental Impact Of Earthquakes In Europe
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📄 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-68120-6 <-- shared paper
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🗺️ https://embodiedcarbon.builtenvdata.eu/ <-- shared interactive platform
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📦 https://github.com/gem/global_embodied_carbon_model <-- shared github ‘code base’
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🌍 https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gemevents/gem2026-conference-from-faults-to-future-scenarios <-- shared details of 2026 GEM Conference: From Faults To Future Scenarios, June 2026, Croatia
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#EmbodiedCarbon #service #GlobalEarthquakeModel #earthquake #damage #europe #carbon #GEM #data #maps #opendata #openspatial #GIS #spatial #mapping #seimsic #damage #buildings #urban #residential #commercial #industrial #replacement #infrastructure #typologies #naturalhazard #fault #faulting #geology #global #carbonbudget #climate #climatechange #carboncost #CO2 #carbondioxide #openscience #database #spatialdata #carbonfootprint #seismicrisk #planning #risk #hazard #factors #riskassessment #𝘀𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 #engineering #design
@gem

Subsidence [California Groundwater-Extraction-Caused]
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https://youtu.be/wYZx6tOP4qs?si=aq4yKNKE8aKRofEP <-- shared CaDWR video - ‘What is subsidence?’
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https://youtu.be/8ERftzZL0OE?si=IKa82AMTcweZHp0L <-- shared CaDWR video - ‘The Role of Critical Head in Managing Land Subsidence’
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https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Groundwater-Management/Subsidence <-- shared technical overview
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https://phys.org/news/2024-11-groundwater-rapid-california.html <-- shared technical article
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01778-w <-- shared paper
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https://mavensnotebook.com/2025/09/08/ca-water-commission-californias-land-subsidence-challenge-a-look-at-dwrs-draft-bmp/ <-- shared technical article
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#California #USA #infrastructure #subsidence #water #hydrology #California #geology #sedimentology #engineeringgeology #cost #risk #hazard #damage #economics #groundwater #pumping #overpumping #extraction #humanimpacts #elevation #waterresources #riskassessment

High Resolution Simulation Of Urban Compound Flooding Under Climate Impacts
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102771 <-- shared paper
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#ClimateChange #FloodResilience #UrbanPlanning #ClimateAdaptation #HydrodynamicModeling #CompoundFlooding #SeaLevelRise #sealevel #Flood #flooding #depth #hazard #risk #riskassessment #Urban #urbanplanning #resilience #NewYorkCity #NYC #Hoboken #NewJersey #infrastructure #damage #cost #economics #vulnerability #urban #hydrodynamic #city #cities #climatechange #extremeweather #model #modeling #spatial #GIS #mapping #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #highresolution #pluvia #rainfall #precipitation #fluvial #HurricaneIda #stormsurge #building #structures #topography #drainagesystems #infiltration #emergencyservices #framework #workflow #methodology

A quotation from Terry Pratchett

And Sergeant Colon once again knew a secret about bravery. It was arguably a kind of enhanced cowardice — the knowledge that while death may await you if you advance it will be a picnic compared to the certain living hell that awaits should you retreat.

Terry Pratchett (1948-2015) English author
Discworld No. 21, Jingo (1988)

More about this quote: wist.info/pratchett-terry/8091…

#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #terrypratchett #discworld #alternatives #bravery #costbenefit #courage #cowardice #danger #death #informeddecision #punishment #retreat #riskanalysis #riskassessment

Mapping Current And Future Flood Exposure Using A 5 Metre Flood Model And Climate Change Projections [Vancouver, Canada]
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https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/24/699/2024/ <-- shared technical article
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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/17/pacific-north-west-flooding-british-columbia-washington-state-canada <-- shared 2021 technical media article, PNW flooding
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[this post should not be considered an endorsement of a specific vendor, etc]
#water #hydrology #flood #flooding #risk #hazard #Vancouver #BritishColumbia #Canada #climatechange #extremeweather #localfloods #GIS #spatial #mapping #riskassessment #spatialanalysis #floodexposure #riskmapping #model #modeling #floodriskmanagement #riskmanagement #naturaldisaster #rainfall #precipitation #stormsurge #hazardmapping #floodmapping #floodrisk #infrastructure #cost #economics #fluvial #pluvial #geomorphology #elevation #geomorphometry #regulatory #regulations #spatiotemporal

Imagine your security team reacting in minutes instead of days—even against emerging threats like "BlackFrost." AI-powered breach and attack simulation is turning cyber defense into a proactive edge in 2025. Curious how it's reshaping the playbook?

https://thedefendopsdiaries.com/how-ai-powered-breach-and-attack-simulation-is-changing-cybersecurity-in-2025/

#aiincybersecurity
#breachandsimulation
#cybersecuritytrends
#threatintelligence
#riskassessment

New Study Links Flood Risk And Hurricane Attributes In Southwest Florida
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https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/news/new-study-links-flood-risk-and-hurricane-attributes-in-southwest-florida/ <-- shared technical article
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00141-z <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #model #modeling #risk #hazard #building #damage #flood #flooding #hurricane #Florida #USA #economy #cost #infrastructure #extremeweather #HurricaneIrma #HurricaneIan #floodmodel #SLR #sealevelrise #stormsurge #vegetation #FEMA #NFIP #floodinsurance #HAZUS #opendata #stakeholders #riskassessment #propertyvalue
@NOAA

New Research Aims To Better Predict And Understand Cascading Land Surface Hazards
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https://phys.org/news/2025-06-aims-cascading-surface-hazards.html <-- shared technical article
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https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adp9559 <-- shared paper
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#interconnected #geology #engineeringgeology #landcover #landsurface #GIS #spatial #mapping #landcover #hydrology #water #geomorphology # geomiorphmetry #risk #hazard #extremeweather #climatechange #cascading #cascadinghazards #debrisflow #wildfire #massmovement #landslides #flood #flooding #mudflow #susceptibility #chainreaction #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #prediction #management #planning #mitigation #multifactor #sediment #erosion #fluvial #earthquake #fault #faulting #hazardassessment #riskassessment #volcano #vulcanism #sealevelchange #cryosphere #ice #snow #GLOF #humanimpacts #urban #infrastructure #cost #economics #loss #damage #earthobservation #remotesensing #LiDAR #UAV

Colluding Rhino Poachers Exploit Space–Time Variation In Opportunity And Risk
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https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.13106 <-- shared paper
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“[R]esearch analysing over 500 rhino poaching incidents and exploring what these patterns reveal about the behaviours of poachers, rangers, and rhinos. [Their] study highlights concerning evidence of criminal syndicate infiltration, space–time targeting by poachers, and how behavioural insights can inform effective responses—from targeted dehorning to bolstering ranger resilience…”
#GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #wildlifeconservation #wildlife #conservation #statistics #geostatistics #rhino #rhinohorn #rhinoceros #poaching #rangers #criminal #syndicate #mafia #criminalsyndicate #activity #crime #illegal #behaviour #dehorning #rangerstation #protection #humanimpacts #ecosystem #habitat #deterrencetheory #deterrence #methodology #tourist #tourism #reserve #spatiotemporal #opportunity #risk #hazard #riskassessment #Africa #SouthAfrica #alldataisspatial
@Sabi Sand Nature Reserve

Comprehensive Risk Evaluation In Rapti Valley, Nepal - A Multi-Hazard Approach
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100346 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #rapti #lumbini #risk #hazard #nepal #suspectibility #vulnerability #flood #flooding #water #hydrology #multihazard #riskassessment #geology #engineeringgeology #massmovement #landslides #debrisflows #erosion #model #modeling #map #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #remotesensing #susceptibility #planning #development #mitigation #urbanplanning #naturalhazards #probability #geostatistics #forestfire #wildfire #bushfire #extremeweather #climatechange #vulnerability #physical #social #publicsafety #economic #environmental #riskzones

Research Opportunity - Advancing The Operational Capacity Of Postfire Debris-Flow Hazard Assessments Through Better Understanding Of Debris-Flow Processes – A Mendenhall Research Fellowship Program Opportunity, Golden CO
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https://www.usgs.gov/centers/mendenhall-research-fellowship-program/22-25-advancing-operational-capacity-postfire-debris <-- details of Fellowship opportunity
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https://www.usgs.gov/centers/mendenhall-research-fellowship-program <-- details of the Mendenhall Research Fellowship Program
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#engineeringgeology #research #researchopportunity #researchopportunities #MendenhallResearchFellowship #USGS #postfire #massmovement #debrisflow #geology #risk #hazard #wildfire #bushfire #firedamage #fire #impacts #fireriskassessment #geologichazard #fluvial #water #fluvialgeomorphology #climate #extremeweather #climatechange #soil #hazardassessent #riskassessment #riskmanagement #riskanalytics
@usgs

[Global] Volcanic Hazard Maps – IAVCEI Commission On Volcanic Hazards & Risks
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https://volcanichazardmaps.org/ <-- entry point web page
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https://volcanichazardmaps.org/volcano-map/ <-- interactive map
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #volcano #volcanic #design #community #research #database #IAVCEI #global #map #hazard #hazards #risk #riskassessment #geology #geologichazard #naturalhazard #hazardmap #engineeringgeology #riskassessment #CVHR #IAVECI #NewZealand #ringoffire #dataset #entrypoint #portal #gischat #IAVCEI