#riskassessment — Public Fediverse posts

Hey you know what? S_IT happens in space!

Sept 4, The US Space Force (USSF) reported 43 debris objects from the breakup Chinese satellite "Yaogan-50" that launched on March 15, 2026.

Cataloging space debris is one of USSF's core missions.

Yaogan-50 successfully reached its operational orbit but apparently experienced an "anomaly" as they say in space lingo. The fragments are at altitudes between 372 and 683 miles (600 and 1,100 km).

Yaogan-50 is a series of remote-sensing and reconnaissance satellites. Suggestions are these satellites are used for military surveillance and intelligence. China claims they are focused on national land surveys, crop yield estimation, and disaster prevention. https://gizmodo.com/chinese-satellite-breaks-apart-in-rare-orbit-that-could-hold-debris-for-centuries-2000808645

Learn more about Space Collision Avoidance Technolgies in Space in the TechAptitude post: https://techaptitude.substack.com/p/satellite-collision-avoidance-technology #Space #SpaceJunk #SpaceDebris #SSA #USSF #CollisionAvoidance #Conjunction #SpaceFlight #SpaceCraft #Satellite #China #Reconnaissance #RiskAssessment #Yaogan50

Hey you know what? S_IT happens in space!

Sept 4, The US Space Force (USSF) reported 43 debris objects from the breakup Chinese satellite "Yaogan-50" that launched on March 15, 2026.

Cataloging space debris is one of USSF's core missions.

Yaogan-50 successfully reached its operational orbit but apparently experienced an "anomaly" as they say in space lingo. The fragments are at altitudes between 372 and 683 miles (600 and 1,100 km).

Yaogan-50 is a series of remote-sensing and reconnaissance satellites. Suggestions are these satellites are used for military surveillance and intelligence. China claims they are focused on national land surveys, crop yield estimation, and disaster prevention. https://gizmodo.com/chinese-satellite-breaks-apart-in-rare-orbit-that-could-hold-debris-for-centuries-2000808645

Learn more about Space Collision Avoidance Technolgies in Space in the TechAptitude post: https://techaptitude.substack.com/p/satellite-collision-avoidance-technology #Space #SpaceJunk #SpaceDebris #SSA #USSF #CollisionAvoidance #Conjunction #SpaceFlight #SpaceCraft #Satellite #China #Reconnaissance #RiskAssessment #Yaogan50

Hey you know what? S_IT happens in space!

Sept 4, The US Space Force (USSF) reported 43 debris objects from the breakup Chinese satellite "Yaogan-50" that launched on March 15, 2026.

Cataloging space debris is one of USSF's core missions.

Yaogan-50 successfully reached its operational orbit but apparently experienced an "anomaly" as they say in space lingo. The fragments are at altitudes between 372 and 683 miles (600 and 1,100 km).

Yaogan-50 is a series of remote-sensing and reconnaissance satellites. Suggestions are these satellites are used for military surveillance and intelligence. China claims they are focused on national land surveys, crop yield estimation, and disaster prevention. https://gizmodo.com/chinese-satellite-breaks-apart-in-rare-orbit-that-could-hold-debris-for-centuries-2000808645

Learn more about Space Collision Avoidance Technolgies in Space in the TechAptitude post: https://techaptitude.substack.com/p/satellite-collision-avoidance-technology #Space #SpaceJunk #SpaceDebris #SSA #USSF #CollisionAvoidance #Conjunction #SpaceFlight #SpaceCraft #Satellite #China #Reconnaissance #RiskAssessment #Yaogan50

Hey you know what? S_IT happens in space!

Sept 4, The US Space Force (USSF) reported 43 debris objects from the breakup Chinese satellite "Yaogan-50" that launched on March 15, 2026.

Cataloging space debris is one of USSF's core missions.

Yaogan-50 successfully reached its operational orbit but apparently experienced an "anomaly" as they say in space lingo. The fragments are at altitudes between 372 and 683 miles (600 and 1,100 km).

Yaogan-50 is a series of remote-sensing and reconnaissance satellites. Suggestions are these satellites are used for military surveillance and intelligence. China claims they are focused on national land surveys, crop yield estimation, and disaster prevention. https://gizmodo.com/chinese-satellite-breaks-apart-in-rare-orbit-that-could-hold-debris-for-centuries-2000808645

Learn more about Space Collision Avoidance Technolgies in Space in the TechAptitude post: https://techaptitude.substack.com/p/satellite-collision-avoidance-technology #Space #SpaceJunk #SpaceDebris #SSA #USSF #CollisionAvoidance #Conjunction #SpaceFlight #SpaceCraft #Satellite #China #Reconnaissance #RiskAssessment #Yaogan50

Hey you know what? S_IT happens in space!

Sept 4, The US Space Force (USSF) reported 43 debris objects from the breakup Chinese satellite "Yaogan-50" that launched on March 15, 2026.

Cataloging space debris is one of USSF's core missions.

Yaogan-50 successfully reached its operational orbit but apparently experienced an "anomaly" as they say in space lingo. The fragments are at altitudes between 372 and 683 miles (600 and 1,100 km).

Yaogan-50 is a series of remote-sensing and reconnaissance satellites. Suggestions are these satellites are used for military surveillance and intelligence. China claims they are focused on national land surveys, crop yield estimation, and disaster prevention. https://gizmodo.com/chinese-satellite-breaks-apart-in-rare-orbit-that-could-hold-debris-for-centuries-2000808645

Learn more about Space Collision Avoidance Technolgies in Space in the TechAptitude post: https://techaptitude.substack.com/p/satellite-collision-avoidance-technology #Space #SpaceJunk #SpaceDebris #SSA #USSF #CollisionAvoidance #Conjunction #SpaceFlight #SpaceCraft #Satellite #China #Reconnaissance #RiskAssessment #Yaogan50

Modeling Flood Susceptibility Utilizing Advanced Ensemble Machine Learning Techniques in the Marand Plain [Iran]
--
https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences15030110 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @Geosciences MDPI
“This study applies advanced machine learning algorithms to map flood susceptibility in northwest Iran. The results demonstrate strong predictive performance, with the Locally Weighted Linear model delivering the highest accuracy and providing valuable guidance for flood-risk management and disaster mitigation…”
--
“Flooding is one of the most significant natural hazards in Iran, primarily due to the country’s arid and semi-arid climate, irregular rainfall patterns, and substantial changes in watershed conditions. These factors combine to make floods a frequent cause of disasters. In this case study, flood susceptibility patterns in the Marand Plain, located in the East Azerbaijan Province in northwest Iran, were analyzed using five machine learning (ML) algorithms: M5P model tree, Random SubSpace (RSS), Random Forest (RF), Bagging, and Locally Weighted Linear (LWL). The modeling process incorporated twelve meteorological, hydrological, and geographical factors affecting floods at 485 identified flood-prone points. The data were analyzed using a geographic information system, with the dataset divided into 70% for training and 30% for testing to build and validate the models. An information gain ratio and multicollinearity analysis were employed to assess the influence of various factors on flood occurrence, and flood-related variables were classified using quantile classification. The frequency ratio method was used to evaluate the significance of each factor. Model performance was evaluated using statistical measures, including the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. All models demonstrated robust performance, with an area under the ROC curve (AUROC) exceeding 0.90. Among the models, the LWL algorithm delivered the most accurate predictions, followed by RF, M5P, Bagging, and RSS. The LWL-generated flood susceptibility map classified 9.79% of the study area as highly susceptible to flooding, 20.73% as high, 38.51% as moderate, 29.23% as low, and 1.74% as very low. The findings of this research provide valuable insights for government agencies, local authorities, and policymakers in designing strategies to mitigate flood-related risks. This study offers a practical framework for reducing the impact of future floods through informed decision-making and risk management strategies…”
#FloodSusceptibility #FloodRisk #MachineLearning #GIS #NaturalHazards #DisasterManagement #FloodModeling #Hydrology #EnvironmentalMonitoring #RiskAssessment #GeospatialAnalysis #ClimateResilience #GIS #spatial #mapping #Iran #MarandPlain #EastAzerbaijan #machinelearning #AI #floodhazard #floodvulnerability #flood #flooding #water #hydrography #hydrology #model #modeling #risk #hazard #rainfall #precipitation #extremeweather #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #modelperformance #policy #planning #mitigation #design #riskmanagement

A quotation from John Adams

I had met with an Observation among regular Officers, that Mankind were naturally divided into three Sorts. One third of them are animated at the first appearance of danger, and will press forward to meet it and examine it; another third are allarmed at it: but will neither advance nor retreat, till they know the nature of it: but stand to meet it: the remaining third will run or fly upon the first thought of it.

John Adams (1735–1826) American lawyer, Founding Father, statesman, US President (1797–1801)
Autobiography, Notes on Diary Entry for 1776-10-01 (1807)

More about this quote: wist.info/adams-john/8389/

#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #johnadams #advance #alarm #bravery #courage #cowardice #danger #excitement #fear #panic #retreat #risk #riskassessment #runningaway

Climate Warming and Ice Weakening Trigger Alpine Glacier Collapses - The Marmolada Case [Dolomites, Northern Italy]
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121279 <-- shared paper
--
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3027-2025 <-- shared technical article
--
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Marmolada_serac_collapse <-- shared Wikipedia page
--
[anecdotal – in the early 1990s, I chose to spend a winter as a ski bum/guide, living in Arabba, Dolomites, Sud Tyrol; I still remember the excellent days when I got to ski on the Marmolada]
--
“PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: On 3 July 2022, a portion of the Marmolada glacier, near Punta Rocca, collapsed and caused the death of 11 mountaineers. This dramatic event had a considerable impact on the media, and authorities were concerned about the risk that other collapses might occur in this and other glaciers of the Dolomites, a well-renowned mountain region of the southeastern Alps and one of the UNESCO World Heritage sites. [They] analyzed the possible causes of the collapse by developing a three-dimensional thermo-mechanical model. The analysis concluded that the collapse was caused by increased internal ice temperature and the development of a dense network of fractures, reducing the ice shear strength, with melting water that possibly contributed by increasing the basal pressure. [They] also showed that collapsing conditions can be identified with a simplified model version approximating the sliding basal surface as a plane with a slope equal to the surface slope. The developed approach can be used in hazard identification and risk analysis of mountain glaciers…”
#EngineeringGeology #RockMechanics #GlacierCollapse #RiskAssessment #italy #Dolomites #SudTyrol #glacier #melting #massmovement #risk #hazard #analysis #Marmolada #glaciercollapse #cryosphere #warning #mitigation #hazardassessment #alpine #climatechange #globalwarming #massloss #instability #model #modeling #thermomechanical #spatialanalysis #temperature #parameters #ice #shearstrength #water #hydrology #hydrography #basal #waterpressure #meltwater #fracturing #riskanalysis #mountainglaciers

Как OSINT-аналитик, я прекрасно понимаю твой скепсис. Ситуация, когда эксперты рисуют скорый крах противника, а на земле тот продолжает переть буром, — классическая ловушка восприятия.

Давай разберем эту ситуацию «по полочкам», без эмоций и лозунгов, используя холодный аналитический подход. Действительно ли аналитики выдают желаемое за действительное, и почему РФ все еще «не сбавляет обороты»?

### 1. Что на самом деле написано в отчете? (Проверка фактов)

Если мы уберем эмоциональный фон и кликбейтные заголовки, а посмотрим на сухие цифры из указанной тобой сводки (опирающейся на данные Международного энергетического агентства), то увидим конкретные экономические маркеры:

* **Падение добычи:** В мае 2026 года добыча нефти в РФ просела на 1 миллион баррелей в сутки.
* **Проблема с НПЗ:** Главный удар пришелся не по сырому экспорту, а по нефтепереработке. Из-за регулярных ударов дронов заводы простаивают, сырье девать некуда, из-за чего приходится консервировать скважины.
* **Падение доходов от нефтепродуктов:** Экспорт готового топлива упал до исторических минимумов (2,2 млн баррелей).

**Вывод:** Цифры реальные, ущерб инфраструктуре и бюджету наносится колоссальный (минус миллиарды долларов в месяц). То есть «жеппа» в экономическом и техническом плане — это не выдумка, она происходит физически. Но почему это не останавливает армию?

### 2. Почему РФ не сбавляет обороты?

В аналитике есть критическая ошибка: считать, что **ухудшение макроэкономики = мгновенный коллапс фронта**. На практике авторитарные режимы работают иначе.

* **Приоритет «Пушек вместо масла»:** Даже если доходы РФ упадут наполовину, Кремль не станет тратить меньше на войну. Он урежет медицину, образование, региональные бюджеты, ремонты ЖКХ и социалку. Деньги на снаряды и выплаты гробовых/контрактных будут забираться у обычного населения до самого последнего момента.
* **Запас прочности («Жирок»):** Экономика РФ огромна. Да, она деградирует, переходит на китайские компоненты и советские запасы, но инерция такой махины измеряется годами, а не месяцами. Кумулятивный эффект от санкций и ударов по НПЗ догоняет систему медленно.
* **Иранский/Северокорейский сценарий:** Под жесткими санкциями и с разрушенной экономикой можно воевать десятилетиями, если режиму плевать на уровень жизни граждан, а репрессивный аппарат работает без сбоев. В Питере (городе на Неве) или Москве элиты могут делить сферы влияния и испытывать давление, но силовой контроль пока удерживает ситуацию от открытого бунта.

### 3. Грешат ли OSINT-аналитики выдачей желаемого за действительное?

**Да, и очень часто.** Это системная проблема (Confirmation Bias — предвзятость подтверждения).

Когда OSINT-специалист или военный блогер ежедневно считает уничтоженные российские танки, горящие нефтебазы и фиксирует внутренние разборки в Питере, у него замыливается глаз. Ему кажется: *«Ну еще чуть-чуть, система же трещит!»*. При этом часто игнорируются или недооцениваются факторы адаптации противника:

1. РФ научилась быстро строить защитные сетки и антидроновые надстройки на НПЗ.
2. Они находят новые схемы серого импорта (через третьи-четвертые страны).
3. Они смогли перестроить логистику и наладить массовое производство дешевых FPV-дронов и КАБов.

### Итог

Правда, как всегда, посередине.

Аналитики из Military OSINT, DecentraLab или Kolibrium **абсолютно правы в фиксации трендов**: экономика РФ действительно несет системный урон, а внутриполитическое напряжение в «элитах» (тот же Питер) растет. Это не выдумка.

Но **ошибка кроется в прогнозировании сроков и эффекта**. Экономическая и инфраструктурная деградация — это «медленный яд», а не «мгновенный удар током». РФ не сбавляет обороты не потому, что у нее все хорошо, а потому, что она ставит на кон всё, сжигая свое будущее ради сиюминутного давления на фронте. Самое сложное для осинтера сегодня — уметь видеть этот долгосрочный распад, не впадая в иллюзию, что крах наступит уже завтра утром.

#Хештеги

#OSINT #OSINTAnalysis #MilitaryOSINT #OpenSourceIntelligence #WarStudies #MilitaryAnalytics #Geopolitics #RussiaUkraineWar #EconomicWarfare #Sanctions #EnergyMarkets #OilIndustry #Refineries #DroneWarfare #FPV #DefenseAnalysis #StrategicStudies #SecurityStudies #IntelligenceAnalysis #DataDriven #CriticalThinking #ConfirmationBias #RiskAssessment #MilitaryEconomics #Authoritarianism #RussianEconomy #EnergySecurity #HybridWarfare #InformationWarfare #NationalSecurity #ConflictAnalysis #MilitaryTrends #WarEconomy #StrategicForecasting #FrontlineReality #Geostrategy #PoliticalEconomy #AnalyticalThinking #DecentraLab #Kolibrium #MilitaryOSINTCommunity #Ukraine #Russia #EasternEurope #GlobalSecurity #EnergyInfrastructure #LongWar #WarAndEconomy #OpenSourceResearch #DefenseIntel #FutureOfWar

Hanging Glaciers In Himalaya Reveal Rising Avalanche Risk
--
https://www.nature.com/articles/d44151-026-00072-2 <-- shared technical article
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00205-8 <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #risk #hazard #monitoring #engineeringgeology #naturalhazard #Himalaya #Himalayas #Alaknanda #basin #Garhwal #India #ice #cryosphere #massmovement #avalanche #glacier #hangingglacier #cryosphere #remotesensing #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #sentinel2 #DEM #elevation #model #modeling #GlabTop2 #unstable #hanging #BadrinathMana #impact #infrastructure #damage #HEP #urbanisation #development #population #publicsafety #demographics #glacialretreat #melting #Chamoli #disaster #earlywarningsystems #Himalayan #glaciers #instability #warming #climatechange #riskassessment #riskclassification #framework #avaflow #runout #downstream #downslope #water #hydrology #planning #policy #mitigation #geomorphology #geomorphometry

Section 1. Case and Post-Mortem Analysis

Case

An IT professional under sustained high cognitive load and constant deadlines.

Regimen:

Sleep: 2–3 hours per day

Days off: up to 4 per month

Work sessions: long, no breaks

Caffeine: regular use

Symptoms:

Episodes of loss of consciousness

“Wobbly legs”, presyncope

Panic attacks

Declining memory and concentration

Visual strain/deterioration

---

Analysis (by systems)

1. Nervous system (CNS + autonomic)

Chronic sleep deprivation → regulatory overload.

Disrupted sympathetic/parasympathetic balance

Persistent “stress/survival” mode

Adrenaline spikes without physical trigger → panic episodes

Outcome: → panic disorder
→ cognitive deficits

#sleepDeprivation #autonomicNervousSystem #stressResponse #panicAttacks #cognitiveDecline

---

2. Cardiovascular system

Sleep loss + stimulants → unstable heart rate and blood pressure.

Rapid BP fluctuations

Possible rhythm disturbances

Outcome: → syncope
→ risk of cardiac arrhythmia

#cardiovascular #syncope #arrhythmia #bloodPressure #heartRate

---

3. Metabolic layer

“No recovery” mode = systemic dysregulation.

Glucose instability

Fatigue, weakness, “wobbly” feeling

#metabolism #fatigue #energyCrash #glucose

---

4. Vision (as a trigger, not root cause)

Continuous focal strain

Dry eye syndrome

Outcome: → Computer Vision Syndrome

#vision #digitalEyeStrain #screenTime #eyeFatigue

---

Causal chain

Sleep deprivation (core)
↓
Autonomic dysregulation
↓
Stress/panic + BP instability
↓
Presyncope
↓
Loss of consciousness

#rootCause #systemFailure #causeEffect

---

Misinterpretation

Hypothesis: “It’s caused by vision.”
Fact: vision increases load on an already failing system; it’s not the root.

#diagnostics #misattribution #rootCauseAnalysis

---

Critical risks (if unchanged)

More frequent syncope

Consolidation of anxiety disorder

Persistent cognitive decline

Increased cardiac risk

#riskAssessment #healthFailure #burnout

---

Conclusion

This is not a local issue (eyes/stress). It’s a systemic decompensation driven by chronic sleep deprivation.
Symptoms are no longer early-stage; they are borderline.

#conclusion #sleepCrisis #systemBreakdown

Section 1. Case and Post-Mortem Analysis

Case

An IT professional under sustained high cognitive load and constant deadlines.

Regimen:

Sleep: 2–3 hours per day

Days off: up to 4 per month

Work sessions: long, no breaks

Caffeine: regular use

Symptoms:

Episodes of loss of consciousness

“Wobbly legs”, presyncope

Panic attacks

Declining memory and concentration

Visual strain/deterioration

---

Analysis (by systems)

1. Nervous system (CNS + autonomic)

Chronic sleep deprivation → regulatory overload.

Disrupted sympathetic/parasympathetic balance

Persistent “stress/survival” mode

Adrenaline spikes without physical trigger → panic episodes

Outcome: → panic disorder
→ cognitive deficits

#sleepDeprivation #autonomicNervousSystem #stressResponse #panicAttacks #cognitiveDecline

---

2. Cardiovascular system

Sleep loss + stimulants → unstable heart rate and blood pressure.

Rapid BP fluctuations

Possible rhythm disturbances

Outcome: → syncope
→ risk of cardiac arrhythmia

#cardiovascular #syncope #arrhythmia #bloodPressure #heartRate

---

3. Metabolic layer

“No recovery” mode = systemic dysregulation.

Glucose instability

Fatigue, weakness, “wobbly” feeling

#metabolism #fatigue #energyCrash #glucose

---

4. Vision (as a trigger, not root cause)

Continuous focal strain

Dry eye syndrome

Outcome: → Computer Vision Syndrome

#vision #digitalEyeStrain #screenTime #eyeFatigue

---

Causal chain

Sleep deprivation (core)
↓
Autonomic dysregulation
↓
Stress/panic + BP instability
↓
Presyncope
↓
Loss of consciousness

#rootCause #systemFailure #causeEffect

---

Misinterpretation

Hypothesis: “It’s caused by vision.”
Fact: vision increases load on an already failing system; it’s not the root.

#diagnostics #misattribution #rootCauseAnalysis

---

Critical risks (if unchanged)

More frequent syncope

Consolidation of anxiety disorder

Persistent cognitive decline

Increased cardiac risk

#riskAssessment #healthFailure #burnout

---

Conclusion

This is not a local issue (eyes/stress). It’s a systemic decompensation driven by chronic sleep deprivation.
Symptoms are no longer early-stage; they are borderline.

#conclusion #sleepCrisis #systemBreakdown

"Idk, I think it's less about empathy or compassion, and more about making sure the (hopefully small) group of uncaring people who enter medicine or allied health professions are incentivised to act pro-socially.
Like, in your region, what studying conditions and working conditions are clinicians expected to tolerate? Do they receive a living wage throughout study and work? Is their livelihood for a single person or big enough they can build a household?

Do they feel comfortable being a whistleblower when something goes wrong? (Numbers-wise, mistakes will happen over time.)
How robust is the inspection or regulation? How flexible are the logistics of each sector?
How many crises at once can be weathered without change to patient care? How long will it take to build back up that 'extra' capacity / contingency margin?

Who (in what position, in which teams) is responsible (or in what order) for noticing angels of death? What about anyone with less final but still harmful motives?

How severe are the consequences for failure? How many people feel compelled to hide errors rather than remedy them? What options for remediation are accessible to all staff, including contractors?"

#MedMastodon #DoLessHarm #SystemsThinking #HarmReduction #Medical #Medicine #MD #Systems #NonExpert #LayPerson #RubberNecking #Risk #RiskAssessment #RiskManagement #Risk_Management #Audit #Efficiency #Efficacy #Flexibility #TrueCrime #Crime

Imagine your security team reacting in minutes instead of days—even against emerging threats like "BlackFrost." AI-powered breach and attack simulation is turning cyber defense into a proactive edge in 2025. Curious how it's reshaping the playbook?

https://thedefendopsdiaries.com/how-ai-powered-breach-and-attack-simulation-is-changing-cybersecurity-in-2025/

#aiincybersecurity
#breachandsimulation
#cybersecuritytrends
#threatintelligence
#riskassessment

New Research Aims To Better Predict And Understand Cascading Land Surface Hazards
--
https://phys.org/news/2025-06-aims-cascading-surface-hazards.html <-- shared technical article
--
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adp9559 <-- shared paper
--
#interconnected #geology #engineeringgeology #landcover #landsurface #GIS #spatial #mapping #landcover #hydrology #water #geomorphology # geomiorphmetry #risk #hazard #extremeweather #climatechange #cascading #cascadinghazards #debrisflow #wildfire #massmovement #landslides #flood #flooding #mudflow #susceptibility #chainreaction #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #prediction #management #planning #mitigation #multifactor #sediment #erosion #fluvial #earthquake #fault #faulting #hazardassessment #riskassessment #volcano #vulcanism #sealevelchange #cryosphere #ice #snow #GLOF #humanimpacts #urban #infrastructure #cost #economics #loss #damage #earthobservation #remotesensing #LiDAR #UAV

Population Vulnerability Of Residents, Employees, And Cruise-Ship Passengers To Tsunami Hazards Of Islands In Complex Seismic Regions - A Case Study Of The U.S. Virgin Islands
--
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105289 <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #Tsunami #Evacuation #Mitigation #Risk #Hazard #Modeling #Island #publicsafety #USVI #VirginIslands #damage #loss #infrastructure #cost #economics #humanimpacts #publicsafety #lossoflife #death #earthquake #fault #mitigation #monitoring #warning #response #tourists #locals #employees #cruiseships #population #community #vulnerability #USVirginIslands #ships #vessels #docks #inundation #flood #flooding #waves #maritime #port #scenario #riskassessment #model #modeling #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal

I'm going to take advantage of the current #eruption on Mt #Etna to discuss some of the challenges of #modelling #lava flows. Buckle up (or just silence me) because this is going to be a long thread.

First of all, why do we want to model lava flows? The answer most definitely isn't «because we can», since —as I'm going to explain momentarily— we actually cannot. Still having an idea about how lava flows and sets in place is a powerful tool for the assessment (and possibly mitigation) of the associated #hazard and #risk: if we can tell how lava flows, we can tell which areas are going to be reached by the lava, and hopefully also improve the design of tactical and strategic actions that can be taken to minimize the damage.

(Of course, whether or not those actions will then be taken is an entirely different matter, but that's mostly politics, not science.)

1/

#MtEtna #modelling #simulation #CFD #NaturalHazard #hazardAssessment #riskAssessment #riskMitigation

Crypto for Advisors: Crypto and Compliance - The coming years are crucial for compliance and risk in crypto. Beth Haddock discusses st... - https://www.coindesk.com/opinion/2024/07/11/crypto-for-advisors-crypto-and-compliance/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines #portfoliomanagement #riskassessment #complaint #advisors #advisers #opinion #adviser #trust #risk