#riskassessment — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #riskassessment, aggregated by home.social.
-
Flood And Landslide Susceptibility Assessment And Multi Hazard Interaction Mapping Using Machine Learning And GIS For Sustainable Settlement Planning In Nepal
--
https://doi.org/10.1007/s44288-026-00670-8 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @Narayan Thapa | Earth Data Modeling
“Nepal lies within an active seismic zone and is influenced by most dynamic climatic systems in the world. It faces compounding floods and landslide threats. Impacts are worst where multi-hazard interactions create spatially linked corridors. Despite frequent co-occurrence, national-scale assessments remain limited. This study presents machine learning and GIS-based approach to map nationwide susceptibility to floods, landslides, and identify their potential interaction zones, and delineate critical multi-hazard flow zones through spatial adjacency analysis. Using Google Earth Engine, the Random Forest model integrates topographic, climatic, environmental, and hydrological datasets to overcome subjective expert-driven methods. The model achieved strong predictive accuracy (AUC: 0.84 for floods, 0.85 for landslides). The results showed 19% of Nepal’s lowlands are medium to very highly susceptible to inundation, threatening approximately 900,000 people and over 3.4 million buildings; whilst in the hilly terrains, 40% is susceptible to slope-failure endangering 200,000 people and about 0.6 million buildings. K-means clustering followed by spatial adjacency analysis identified four spatial zonation: 81% of national area as low-hazard zone, 9% as flood-only zone, 5% as landslide-only zone, and 5% as interaction zones. Critical multi-hazard flow zone covering 7,588 km² represents spatially connected corridors linking interaction zones to downstream flood-prone populated areas, affecting 88 km² built-up land and 1,722 km² cropland. These zones represent susceptibility-based spatial connectivity rather than physically simulated cascading processes. These findings support recommendations for risk-informed land-use planning, resilient infrastructure development and climate adaptation aligned to sustainable development and investment risk screening…”
#GIS #spatial #mapping #GoogleEarthEngine #MachineLearning #RemoteSensing #GeospatialAI #DisasterRiskReduction #MultiHazard #ClimateAdaptation #climatechange #extremeweather #LandUsePlanning #SustainableDevelopment #InfrastructurePlanning #RiskAssessment #NaturalHazards #Nepal #EarthObservation #HinduKushHimalaya #HKH #HinduKush #Himalayas #risk #hazard #assessment #national #regional #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #massmovement #landslide #assessment #mitigation #water #hydrology #flood #flooding #sustainability -
Permafrost Distribution, Degradation, And Potential Mass Movement Cascades In The Western Himalaya Using Machine Learning And Numerical Models
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00217-4 <-- shared paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-22051-w <-- shared (earlier) paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2025.2488532 <-- shared (earlier) paper
--
H/T @abhinav Alangadan
“Can we develop a first-order understanding of permafrost degradation and glacial lakes exposed to degradation-induced mass movements in the Himalaya?
[The authors] tried to address this question. The study [first link above] integrates machine learning, statistical modeling, and numerical modeling to investigate high-resolution permafrost distribution, potential degradation, and associated mass-movement hazards in the Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh, India.
Using rock glaciers as proxies, [they] generated a high-resolution permafrost distribution using machine learning, while potential degradation zones were delineated using the 0°C isotherm as a first-order indicator. [They] further identified glacial lakes located near potentially degrading permafrost zones and reconstructed their bathymetry. A detailed scenario-based GLOF process-chain simulation was then carried out for Kashang Lake using r.avaflow and HEC-RAS.
[Their] results indicate that seven glacial lakes in #Kinnaur are located close to potentially degrading permafrost zones. The simulations further show that a potential GLOF from Kashang Lake could inundate critical downstream infrastructure, including nearly 11 km of National Highway 5…”
#permafrost #distribution #GIS #spatial #mapping #Himalayas #India #Kinnaur #HimachalPradesh #KashangLake #massmovement #engineeringgeology #machinelearning #AI #model #modeling #numericalmodel #glaciallakes #glaciet #glacial #glaciallakeoutburstflood #GLOF #cryosphere #geostatistics #rockglaciers #GeoAI #bathymetry #processchainsimulation #HECRAS #avaflow #risk #hazard #mitigation #riskassessment #infrastructure #HEP #publicsafety #downstream #avalanche -
🚨 FEMA’s Hazus v7.2 Is Here — A Major Upgrade For Disaster Risk Modeling
--
https://www.fema.gov/flood-maps/products-tools/hazus <-- shared link to FEMA HAZUS download, documentation, use case, etc
--
[I used to work some with Hazus back in the back, but my career changed path; I still appreciate its strength and unity of purpose (sic) #alldataisspatial]
H/T @Laban "L.J." Johnson | Founder, LJ Learn & Concordia Initiative | Crisis Support · Leadership Development · Community Resilience | Bridging worlds to help people rise
“FEMA’s Hazus GIS platform has been updated with a new ArcGIS Pro–based version, bringing faster, more powerful tools for estimating losses from floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, and other natural hazards.
Key updates in Hazus 7.2 include:
• Streamlined workflows for flood and hurricane modeling
• New Earthquake ShakeMap integration using USGS data
• Expanded and improved results exports and reporting (including geodatabase outputs)
• Stronger security with known vulnerabilities addressed
• Performance improvements and optimized installation process
• [Significantly enhanced and comprehensive summary reports for flood and earthquake are now available for download.]
• Full integration with ArcGIS Pro (3.4–3.6) for a modern GIS experience
This release represents a significant step forward in how hazard planners, emergency managers, and GIS professionals analyze and prepare for disaster impacts…”
--
“FEMA’s Hazus program provides software, data, methods, and guidance for estimating risk from natural hazards. Hazus can estimate building damages, economic losses, displaced households, casualties, debris generation and more resulting from a natural hazard event and can be used in all phases of emergency management…”
#HAZUS #fedservice #fedscience #oublicgood #publicsafety #emergencyresponse #software #spatialdata #GIS #spatial #mapping #risk #hazard #riskassessment #naturalhazard #humanimpacts #earthquake #wildfire #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #flood #flooding #cost #damage #economic #publicsafety #publichealth #emergencymanagement #opensource #opendata #tsunami #tornado #hurricane #ShakeMap #infrastructure #planning #policy #preparedness #impacts #geology #engineeringgeology #remotesensing #earthobservation
@FEMA -
Climate Warming and Ice Weakening Trigger Alpine Glacier Collapses - The Marmolada Case [Dolomites, Northern Italy]
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121279 <-- shared paper
--
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3027-2025 <-- shared technical article
--
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Marmolada_serac_collapse <-- shared Wikipedia page
--
[anecdotal – in the early 1990s, I chose to spend a winter as a ski bum/guide, living in Arabba, Dolomites, Sud Tyrol; I still remember the excellent days when I got to ski on the Marmolada]
--
“PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: On 3 July 2022, a portion of the Marmolada glacier, near Punta Rocca, collapsed and caused the death of 11 mountaineers. This dramatic event had a considerable impact on the media, and authorities were concerned about the risk that other collapses might occur in this and other glaciers of the Dolomites, a well-renowned mountain region of the southeastern Alps and one of the UNESCO World Heritage sites. [They] analyzed the possible causes of the collapse by developing a three-dimensional thermo-mechanical model. The analysis concluded that the collapse was caused by increased internal ice temperature and the development of a dense network of fractures, reducing the ice shear strength, with melting water that possibly contributed by increasing the basal pressure. [They] also showed that collapsing conditions can be identified with a simplified model version approximating the sliding basal surface as a plane with a slope equal to the surface slope. The developed approach can be used in hazard identification and risk analysis of mountain glaciers…”
#EngineeringGeology #RockMechanics #GlacierCollapse #RiskAssessment #italy #Dolomites #SudTyrol #glacier #melting #massmovement #risk #hazard #analysis #Marmolada #glaciercollapse #cryosphere #warning #mitigation #hazardassessment #alpine #climatechange #globalwarming #massloss #instability #model #modeling #thermomechanical #spatialanalysis #temperature #parameters #ice #shearstrength #water #hydrology #hydrography #basal #waterpressure #meltwater #fracturing #riskanalysis #mountainglaciers -
#NoNaturalDisasters [UN]
--
https://www.undrr.org/our-impact/campaigns/no-natural-disasters | https://www.nonaturaldisasters.com/ <-- shared technical articles
--
#Resilience #ClimateAction #Governance #risk #hazard #riskassessment #naturalhazard #disaster #humanimpacts #engineeringgeology #NoNaturalDisasters #natural #nature #earthquake #storm #flood #flooding #tsunami #volcano #desertification #wildfire #fires #publicsafety #planning #policy #preparedness #ISO31000 #monitoring #buildingcodes #engineering #landuse #earlywarning #humanmaderisk #exposure #vulnerability #socioeconomic #ecosystems #habitat #livelihoods #farming #infrastructure #buildings #structures #industrial #cost #recovery #economics #homes #extremeweather #hurricane #tornado #resilience #sustainability #poverty #assessment #UNDRR #UN #riskreduction
@United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction -
A 481-Metre-High Landslide-Tsunami In A Cruise Ship–Frequented Alaska Fjord
--
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aec3187 <-- shared paper
--
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/06/science/tsunami-landslide-alaska-climate-arctic.html <-- shared media article
--
#naturalhazard #glacier #glacial #melting #risk #hazard #climatechance #extremeweather #tsunami #runup #riskassessment #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #cryosphere #disaster #publicsafety #damage #infrastructure #Alaska #fjord #landslide #massmovement #engineeringeology #geology #cruiseship #humanimpacts #water #hydrology #caseexample #monitoring #coast #coastal #marine #wave #microseismicity #remotesensing #earthobservation #tourism #averteddisaster #readiness #awareness #planning #safety #deglaciating -
Hanging Glaciers In Himalaya Reveal Rising Avalanche Risk
--
https://www.nature.com/articles/d44151-026-00072-2 <-- shared technical article
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00205-8 <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #risk #hazard #monitoring #engineeringgeology #naturalhazard #Himalaya #Himalayas #Alaknanda #basin #Garhwal #India #ice #cryosphere #massmovement #avalanche #glacier #hangingglacier #cryosphere #remotesensing #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #sentinel2 #DEM #elevation #model #modeling #GlabTop2 #unstable #hanging #BadrinathMana #impact #infrastructure #damage #HEP #urbanisation #development #population #publicsafety #demographics #glacialretreat #melting #Chamoli #disaster #earlywarningsystems #Himalayan #glaciers #instability #warming #climatechange #riskassessment #riskclassification #framework #avaflow #runout #downstream #downslope #water #hydrology #planning #policy #mitigation #geomorphology #geomorphometry -
#FYI #US #USA #AmericanResiliency #resilience #TimesOfChange @[email protected] dr. #EmilySchoerning compares tools for current and future #wildfire #riskAssessment www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-Vo... #ClimateScience #climatechange #ClimateCrisis #globalWarming #ExtremeWeather #polycrisis
Wildfire Risk: Tool Comparison... -
#FYI #US #USA #AmericanResiliency #resilience #TimesOfChange
dr. #EmilySchoerning compares two tools for current and future #wildfire #riskAssessment
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-Vo14AmI3c
#climate #ClimateScience #climatechange #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #ExtremeWeather #polycrisis
-
Karst Flash Floods - An Example From The Dinaric Karst (Croatia)
--
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-195-2006 <-- shared (older) paper
--
#flood #flooding #pluvial #fluvial #subsurface #risk #hazard #naturalhazard #disaster #flashflood #infrastructure #damage #building #destabilisation #foundations #karstburst #Marina #Dinaric #Croatia #extremeweather #climatechange #intense #prolonged #rainfall #precipitation #speed #fast #caves #conduits #fractures #aquifers #water #hydrology #groundwater #hydrogeology #waterpressure #sinkhole #subsidence #massmovement #landslide #monitoring #mapping #geology #engineeringgeology #hydroseismic #humanimpacts #lossoflife #death #karstterrain #springs #debris #sediment #cavities #riskassessment #Grazalema #Andalusia #Cadíz #Spain #StormLeonard #emergencymanagement #planning -
Unveiling The Environmental Impact Of Earthquakes In Europe
--
📄 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-68120-6 <-- shared paper
--
🗺️ https://embodiedcarbon.builtenvdata.eu/ <-- shared interactive platform
--
📦 https://github.com/gem/global_embodied_carbon_model <-- shared github ‘code base’
--
🌍 https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gemevents/gem2026-conference-from-faults-to-future-scenarios <-- shared details of 2026 GEM Conference: From Faults To Future Scenarios, June 2026, Croatia
--
#EmbodiedCarbon #service #GlobalEarthquakeModel #earthquake #damage #europe #carbon #GEM #data #maps #opendata #openspatial #GIS #spatial #mapping #seimsic #damage #buildings #urban #residential #commercial #industrial #replacement #infrastructure #typologies #naturalhazard #fault #faulting #geology #global #carbonbudget #climate #climatechange #carboncost #CO2 #carbondioxide #openscience #database #spatialdata #carbonfootprint #seismicrisk #planning #risk #hazard #factors #riskassessment #𝘀𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 #engineering #design
@gem -
High Resolution Simulation Of Urban Compound Flooding Under Climate Impacts
--
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102771 <-- shared paper
--
#ClimateChange #FloodResilience #UrbanPlanning #ClimateAdaptation #HydrodynamicModeling #CompoundFlooding #SeaLevelRise #sealevel #Flood #flooding #depth #hazard #risk #riskassessment #Urban #urbanplanning #resilience #NewYorkCity #NYC #Hoboken #NewJersey #infrastructure #damage #cost #economics #vulnerability #urban #hydrodynamic #city #cities #climatechange #extremeweather #model #modeling #spatial #GIS #mapping #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #highresolution #pluvia #rainfall #precipitation #fluvial #HurricaneIda #stormsurge #building #structures #topography #drainagesystems #infiltration #emergencyservices #framework #workflow #methodology -
A quotation from Terry Pratchett
And Sergeant Colon once again knew a secret about bravery. It was arguably a kind of enhanced cowardice — the knowledge that while death may await you if you advance it will be a picnic compared to the certain living hell that awaits should you retreat.
Terry Pratchett (1948-2015) English author
Discworld No. 21, Jingo (1988)More about this quote: wist.info/pratchett-terry/8091…
#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #terrypratchett #discworld #alternatives #bravery #costbenefit #courage #cowardice #danger #death #informeddecision #punishment #retreat #riskanalysis #riskassessment
-
Frozen No More - A Case Study Of Arctic Permafrost Impacts Of Oil And Gas Withdrawal
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-76292-2 <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #remotesening #earthobservation #oil #gas #oilandgas #O&G #energy #extraction #drilling #exploration #subsurface #permafrost #melting #humanimpacts #climatechange #oilextraction #risk #hazard #riskassessment #water #hydrology #sediment #tundra #oilwellpads #NorthSlope #Alaska #arctic #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #remediation #drillpad #oilpad #lease #industry #habitat #ecosystem #fieldwork #sampling #geology #engineeringgeology #impact -
New Research Aims To Better Predict And Understand Cascading Land Surface Hazards
--
https://phys.org/news/2025-06-aims-cascading-surface-hazards.html <-- shared technical article
--
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adp9559 <-- shared paper
--
#interconnected #geology #engineeringgeology #landcover #landsurface #GIS #spatial #mapping #landcover #hydrology #water #geomorphology # geomiorphmetry #risk #hazard #extremeweather #climatechange #cascading #cascadinghazards #debrisflow #wildfire #massmovement #landslides #flood #flooding #mudflow #susceptibility #chainreaction #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #prediction #management #planning #mitigation #multifactor #sediment #erosion #fluvial #earthquake #fault #faulting #hazardassessment #riskassessment #volcano #vulcanism #sealevelchange #cryosphere #ice #snow #GLOF #humanimpacts #urban #infrastructure #cost #economics #loss #damage #earthobservation #remotesensing #LiDAR #UAV -
I'm going to take advantage of the current #eruption on Mt #Etna to discuss some of the challenges of #modelling #lava flows. Buckle up (or just silence me) because this is going to be a long thread.
First of all, why do we want to model lava flows? The answer most definitely isn't «because we can», since —as I'm going to explain momentarily— we actually cannot. Still having an idea about how lava flows and sets in place is a powerful tool for the assessment (and possibly mitigation) of the associated #hazard and #risk: if we can tell how lava flows, we can tell which areas are going to be reached by the lava, and hopefully also improve the design of tactical and strategic actions that can be taken to minimize the damage.
(Of course, whether or not those actions will then be taken is an entirely different matter, but that's mostly politics, not science.)
1/
#MtEtna #modelling #simulation #CFD #NaturalHazard #hazardAssessment #riskAssessment #riskMitigation
-
Unlocking Seismic Secrets - Researchers Unearth The Mysteries Of How Turkey’s East Anatolian Fault Formed
--
https://scitechdaily.com/unlocking-seismic-secrets-researchers-unearth-the-mysteries-of-how-turkeys-east-anatolian-fault-formed/ <-- shared technical article
--
https://doi.org/10.1130/G51211.1 <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #geology #earthquakes #model #modeling #fault #faulting #structuralgeology #spatialanalysis #remotesensing #seismic #seismicdata #EastAnatolianFault #Turkey #Syria #Anatolia #risk #hazard #platetectonics #tectonicplate #riskassessment
#NSF -
Quantifying Generational And Geographical Inequality Of Climate Change
--
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-35690-8 <-- shared paper
-
#GIS #spatial #mapping #climatechange #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #global #heating #warming #globalwarming #metrics #demographic #costs #economic #noneconomic #humancost #publichealth #climateniche #climate #model #modeling #MAT #SSP #ssp2 #ssp2023 #poverty #povertyrates #impacts #riskassessment #communityimpact #respect #people #future #pollution #emmisions #co2 #humanhealth #humancost #humanfactors #equality #humanclimateniche #geography #geographicinequality #generationinequality #generational #generations #experience #change #climate #weather #water #publichealth #watersecurity #communityimpact #global #globalhealth -
Quantifying The Human Cost Of Global Warming
--
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01132-6 <-- shared paper
--
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/22/global-heating-human-climate-niche <-- shared media article
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #climatechange #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #global #heating #warming #globalwarming #metrics #demographic #costs #economic #noneconomic #humancost #publichealth #climateniche #climate #model #modeling #MAT #SSP #ssp2 #ssp2023 #poverty #povertyrates #impacts #riskassessment #humanclimateniche
#communityimpact #respect #people #future #pollution #emmisions #co2 #humanhealth #humancost #humanfactors #equality
