#riskassessment — Public Fediverse posts

"Uncertainties in future food security will remain large."

"Out of 42 models, 10 models show climate outcomes at a 2 °C warming that are well beyond the multimodel mean at 4 °C of global warming (Fig. 3b). This stresses the need for a careful assessment of their plausibility by evaluating the underlying physical processes. Yet, regardless of pending plausibility checks, these results also call for examining the potential impacts of extreme climate outcomes on global crop production through crop modelling, which can incorporate factors such as irrigation, soil properties and complex management practices."

Emanuele Bevacqua, Erich Fischer, Jana Sillmann, Jakob Zscheischler (2026). "Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes" https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10237-9

#maize #wheat #soybean #rice #riskAssessment #anticipation #climateChange #futures #droughts #agriculture #food #inflation #foodSecurity

"Uncertainties in future food security will remain large."

"Out of 42 models, 10 models show climate outcomes at a 2 °C warming that are well beyond the multimodel mean at 4 °C of global warming (Fig. 3b). This stresses the need for a careful assessment of their plausibility by evaluating the underlying physical processes. Yet, regardless of pending plausibility checks, these results also call for examining the potential impacts of extreme climate outcomes on global crop production through crop modelling, which can incorporate factors such as irrigation, soil properties and complex management practices."

Emanuele Bevacqua, Erich Fischer, Jana Sillmann, Jakob Zscheischler (2026). "Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes" https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10237-9

#maize #wheat #soybean #rice #riskAssessment #anticipation #climateChange #futures #droughts #agriculture #food #inflation #foodSecurity

…

The 2026 episode questions the livability of territories.
"We do not rule out having temperatures around 48-50 degrees in a punctual and very regional manner in France."

"Climate change which is linked to our predatory and unsustainable lifestyles is emerging."

We need to quit management and embrace transformation.
"The priority no longer is to return to normal, no longer to do things as before, it is to change."

There are worldviews to transform.

Christophe Cassou researches climate. Listen to him in French: https://www.radiofrance.fr/franceculture/podcasts/l-invite-e-des-matins-d-ete/christophe-cassou-face-a-l-ete-cataclysmique-vivre-ce-que-l-on-a-passe-sa-vie-a-annoncer-2357103

…

#foresight #adaptation #habitability #livability #climateForcing #carbon #climateDrift #wildfires #climateChange #climate #ecologicalTransition #greenTransition #anticipation #forests #pines #France #risks #riskAssessment

…

The 2026 episode questions the livability of territories.
"We do not rule out having temperatures around 48-50 degrees in a punctual and very regional manner in France."

"Climate change which is linked to our predatory and unsustainable lifestyles is emerging."

We need to quit management and embrace transformation.
"The priority no longer is to return to normal, no longer to do things as before, it is to change."

There are worldviews to transform.

Christophe Cassou researches climate. Listen to him in French: https://www.radiofrance.fr/franceculture/podcasts/l-invite-e-des-matins-d-ete/christophe-cassou-face-a-l-ete-cataclysmique-vivre-ce-que-l-on-a-passe-sa-vie-a-annoncer-2357103

…

#foresight #adaptation #habitability #livability #climateForcing #carbon #climateDrift #wildfires #climateChange #climate #ecologicalTransition #greenTransition #anticipation #forests #pines #France #risks #riskAssessment

Society must anticipate: prepare not for this year's climate but for the future climates. 🧵

#livability #climatePolicy #riskManagement #riskAssessment #policy #adaptation #forests #climateDrift #climateChange #heatwaves #naturalDisasters #resilience #agriculture #wildfires #poliSky #foresight

Society must anticipate: prepare not for this year's climate but for the future climates. 🧵

#livability #climatePolicy #riskManagement #riskAssessment #policy #adaptation #forests #climateDrift #climateChange #heatwaves #naturalDisasters #resilience #agriculture #wildfires #poliSky #foresight

Society must anticipate: prepare not for this year's climate but for the future climates. 🧵

#futures #risks #risk #riskManagement #riskAssessment #livability #habitability #climatePolicy #policy #adaptation #plantations #forestry #climateDrift #climateChange #climateFailure #climateCollapse #drought #heatwaves #naturalDisasters #resilience #agriculture #megafires #wildfire #wildfires

Society must anticipate: prepare not for this year's climate but for the future climates. 🧵

#futures #risks #risk #riskManagement #riskAssessment #livability #habitability #climatePolicy #policy #adaptation #plantations #forestry #climateDrift #climateChange #climateFailure #climateCollapse #drought #heatwaves #naturalDisasters #resilience #agriculture #megafires #wildfire #wildfires

#weather #ExtremeWeather #RiskAssessment #AttributionScience

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine August 4th, 2026

Attribution of Extreme Weather and Climate Events and their Impacts

https://www.nationalacademies.org/projects/DELS-BASCPR-23-02

#climate #ClimateScience #climatechange #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis

#weather #ExtremeWeather #RiskAssessment #AttributionScience

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine August 4th, 2026

Attribution of Extreme Weather and Climate Events and their Impacts

https://www.nationalacademies.org/projects/DELS-BASCPR-23-02

#climate #ClimateScience #climatechange #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis

RE: https://mastodon.social/@paulbeckwith/117055792281374330

#FYI #PaulBeckwith video lecture & literature review #ExtremeWeather #RiskAssessment

Beckwith, Paul Beckwith climate detective investigates the new Extreme Event Attribution Report

#climate #ClimateScience #climatechange #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis

RE: https://mastodon.social/@paulbeckwith/117055792281374330

#FYI #PaulBeckwith video lecture & literature review #ExtremeWeather #RiskAssessment

Beckwith, Paul Beckwith climate detective investigates the new Extreme Event Attribution Report

#climate #ClimateScience #climatechange #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis

…
The EU's adaptation framework serves as a distraction. The cover for treating adaptation as purely technical is thinner than it has been in years. This summer ongoing disasters offer an opening to:
* discuss adaptation;
* look at the perpetrators: https://fed.brid.gy/r/https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:ghfylraepxvzz7zjex4nelzw/post/3msbmrpwlhc2v

_References_

The present thread was inspired by two other voices about the same technocratic output: http://strategicclimaterisks.substack.com/p/how-the-eu-adaptation-framework-vastly

Here is the announcement of the report from the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, 'Strengthening resilience to climate change – Recommendations for an effective EU adaptation policy framework': https://climate-advisory-board.europa.eu/news/escalating-climate-impacts-demand-urgent-coordinated-adaptation-across-the-eu

#climatePolicy #adaptation #climateChange #livability #policy #climate #riskAssessment #governance #uncertainty #EU #EuropeanUnion #Europe

…
The EU's adaptation framework serves as a distraction. The cover for treating adaptation as purely technical is thinner than it has been in years. This summer ongoing disasters offer an opening to:
* discuss adaptation;
* look at the perpetrators: https://fed.brid.gy/r/https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:ghfylraepxvzz7zjex4nelzw/post/3msbmrpwlhc2v

_References_

The present thread was inspired by two other voices about the same technocratic output: http://strategicclimaterisks.substack.com/p/how-the-eu-adaptation-framework-vastly

Here is the announcement of the report from the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, 'Strengthening resilience to climate change – Recommendations for an effective EU adaptation policy framework': https://climate-advisory-board.europa.eu/news/escalating-climate-impacts-demand-urgent-coordinated-adaptation-across-the-eu

#climatePolicy #adaptation #climateChange #livability #policy #climate #riskAssessment #governance #uncertainty #EU #EuropeanUnion #Europe

#Adaptation gets treated as technical work when it's extremely political. Someone decides which communities are defended, which regions are given up, and who pays.
France's mega-basin enforcers show how such centralization triggers organised resistance: https://climatejustice.social/@breton/112934411029720286

Whatever gets planned has to be delivered inside worsening instability.
Budgets raided by the latest emergency, civil services running on depleted trust, supply chains competing against reconstruction elsewhere.
Researchers call this derailment risk, and every plan should account for it: https://scri.org.uk/publications/report-derailment-risk
…

#climatePolicy #adaptation #climateChange #livability #policy #climate #riskAssessment #derailment #climateEmergency #agriculture

#Adaptation gets treated as technical work when it's extremely political. Someone decides which communities are defended, which regions are given up, and who pays.
France's mega-basin enforcers show how such centralization triggers organised resistance: https://climatejustice.social/@breton/112934411029720286

Whatever gets planned has to be delivered inside worsening instability.
Budgets raided by the latest emergency, civil services running on depleted trust, supply chains competing against reconstruction elsewhere.
Researchers call this derailment risk, and every plan should account for it: https://scri.org.uk/publications/report-derailment-risk
…

#climatePolicy #adaptation #climateChange #livability #policy #climate #riskAssessment #derailment #climateEmergency #agriculture

The EU report is detailed and gives an impression that a 3°C planet would be harsh but manageable under the same institutions.
The report does not wonder about unknown unknowns. It does not address supply-chain disruption, financial contagion or people displacement. It lives in a fancy Fortress Europe.

The report also never mentions #AMOC once, even as the evidence for the risk of its collapse to Europe hardens and Iceland starts treating it as a national security threat:
https://mas.to/@maugendre/111917327688619004 🧵

#climatePolicy #adaptation #climateChange #livability #policy #climate #futures #EUPol #Europe #risks #riskAssessment

The EU report is detailed and gives an impression that a 3°C planet would be harsh but manageable under the same institutions.
The report does not wonder about unknown unknowns. It does not address supply-chain disruption, financial contagion or people displacement. It lives in a fancy Fortress Europe.

The report also never mentions #AMOC once, even as the evidence for the risk of its collapse to Europe hardens and Iceland starts treating it as a national security threat:
https://mas.to/@maugendre/111917327688619004 🧵

#climatePolicy #adaptation #climateChange #livability #policy #climate #futures #EUPol #Europe #risks #riskAssessment

New York State Department of Financial Services announced on August 5 that Order Express, Inc., a licensed money transmitter, will pay a $250,000 penalty for violations of DFS’s cybersecurity regulation (23 NYCRR Part 500).

Order Express suffered a ransomware attack in 2022, which they reported appropriately. But then the DFS's investigation revealed that the entity did not have adequate cybersecurity risk assessment or plan.

Read more at: https://www.dfs.ny.gov/reports_and_publications/press_releases/pr20260805

#NYSDFS #OrderExpress #databreach #cybersecurity #FinSec #ransomware #riskassessment

New York State Department of Financial Services announced on August 5 that Order Express, Inc., a licensed money transmitter, will pay a $250,000 penalty for violations of DFS’s cybersecurity regulation (23 NYCRR Part 500).

Order Express suffered a ransomware attack in 2022, which they reported appropriately. But then the DFS's investigation revealed that the entity did not have adequate cybersecurity risk assessment or plan.

Read more at: https://www.dfs.ny.gov/reports_and_publications/press_releases/pr20260805

#NYSDFS #OrderExpress #databreach #cybersecurity #FinSec #ransomware #riskassessment

Flood And Landslide Susceptibility Assessment And Multi Hazard Interaction Mapping Using Machine Learning And GIS For Sustainable Settlement Planning In Nepal
--
https://doi.org/10.1007/s44288-026-00670-8 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @Narayan Thapa | Earth Data Modeling
“Nepal lies within an active seismic zone and is influenced by most dynamic climatic systems in the world. It faces compounding floods and landslide threats. Impacts are worst where multi-hazard interactions create spatially linked corridors. Despite frequent co-occurrence, national-scale assessments remain limited. This study presents machine learning and GIS-based approach to map nationwide susceptibility to floods, landslides, and identify their potential interaction zones, and delineate critical multi-hazard flow zones through spatial adjacency analysis. Using Google Earth Engine, the Random Forest model integrates topographic, climatic, environmental, and hydrological datasets to overcome subjective expert-driven methods. The model achieved strong predictive accuracy (AUC: 0.84 for floods, 0.85 for landslides). The results showed 19% of Nepal’s lowlands are medium to very highly susceptible to inundation, threatening approximately 900,000 people and over 3.4 million buildings; whilst in the hilly terrains, 40% is susceptible to slope-failure endangering 200,000 people and about 0.6 million buildings. K-means clustering followed by spatial adjacency analysis identified four spatial zonation: 81% of national area as low-hazard zone, 9% as flood-only zone, 5% as landslide-only zone, and 5% as interaction zones. Critical multi-hazard flow zone covering 7,588 km² represents spatially connected corridors linking interaction zones to downstream flood-prone populated areas, affecting 88 km² built-up land and 1,722 km² cropland. These zones represent susceptibility-based spatial connectivity rather than physically simulated cascading processes. These findings support recommendations for risk-informed land-use planning, resilient infrastructure development and climate adaptation aligned to sustainable development and investment risk screening…”
#GIS #spatial #mapping #GoogleEarthEngine #MachineLearning #RemoteSensing #GeospatialAI #DisasterRiskReduction #MultiHazard #ClimateAdaptation #climatechange #extremeweather #LandUsePlanning #SustainableDevelopment #InfrastructurePlanning #RiskAssessment #NaturalHazards #Nepal #EarthObservation #HinduKushHimalaya #HKH #HinduKush #Himalayas #risk #hazard #assessment #national #regional #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #massmovement #landslide #assessment #mitigation #water #hydrology #flood #flooding #sustainability

Flood And Landslide Susceptibility Assessment And Multi Hazard Interaction Mapping Using Machine Learning And GIS For Sustainable Settlement Planning In Nepal
--
https://doi.org/10.1007/s44288-026-00670-8 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @Narayan Thapa | Earth Data Modeling
“Nepal lies within an active seismic zone and is influenced by most dynamic climatic systems in the world. It faces compounding floods and landslide threats. Impacts are worst where multi-hazard interactions create spatially linked corridors. Despite frequent co-occurrence, national-scale assessments remain limited. This study presents machine learning and GIS-based approach to map nationwide susceptibility to floods, landslides, and identify their potential interaction zones, and delineate critical multi-hazard flow zones through spatial adjacency analysis. Using Google Earth Engine, the Random Forest model integrates topographic, climatic, environmental, and hydrological datasets to overcome subjective expert-driven methods. The model achieved strong predictive accuracy (AUC: 0.84 for floods, 0.85 for landslides). The results showed 19% of Nepal’s lowlands are medium to very highly susceptible to inundation, threatening approximately 900,000 people and over 3.4 million buildings; whilst in the hilly terrains, 40% is susceptible to slope-failure endangering 200,000 people and about 0.6 million buildings. K-means clustering followed by spatial adjacency analysis identified four spatial zonation: 81% of national area as low-hazard zone, 9% as flood-only zone, 5% as landslide-only zone, and 5% as interaction zones. Critical multi-hazard flow zone covering 7,588 km² represents spatially connected corridors linking interaction zones to downstream flood-prone populated areas, affecting 88 km² built-up land and 1,722 km² cropland. These zones represent susceptibility-based spatial connectivity rather than physically simulated cascading processes. These findings support recommendations for risk-informed land-use planning, resilient infrastructure development and climate adaptation aligned to sustainable development and investment risk screening…”
#GIS #spatial #mapping #GoogleEarthEngine #MachineLearning #RemoteSensing #GeospatialAI #DisasterRiskReduction #MultiHazard #ClimateAdaptation #climatechange #extremeweather #LandUsePlanning #SustainableDevelopment #InfrastructurePlanning #RiskAssessment #NaturalHazards #Nepal #EarthObservation #HinduKushHimalaya #HKH #HinduKush #Himalayas #risk #hazard #assessment #national #regional #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #massmovement #landslide #assessment #mitigation #water #hydrology #flood #flooding #sustainability

Modeling Flood Susceptibility Utilizing Advanced Ensemble Machine Learning Techniques in the Marand Plain [Iran]
--
https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences15030110 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @Geosciences MDPI
“This study applies advanced machine learning algorithms to map flood susceptibility in northwest Iran. The results demonstrate strong predictive performance, with the Locally Weighted Linear model delivering the highest accuracy and providing valuable guidance for flood-risk management and disaster mitigation…”
--
“Flooding is one of the most significant natural hazards in Iran, primarily due to the country’s arid and semi-arid climate, irregular rainfall patterns, and substantial changes in watershed conditions. These factors combine to make floods a frequent cause of disasters. In this case study, flood susceptibility patterns in the Marand Plain, located in the East Azerbaijan Province in northwest Iran, were analyzed using five machine learning (ML) algorithms: M5P model tree, Random SubSpace (RSS), Random Forest (RF), Bagging, and Locally Weighted Linear (LWL). The modeling process incorporated twelve meteorological, hydrological, and geographical factors affecting floods at 485 identified flood-prone points. The data were analyzed using a geographic information system, with the dataset divided into 70% for training and 30% for testing to build and validate the models. An information gain ratio and multicollinearity analysis were employed to assess the influence of various factors on flood occurrence, and flood-related variables were classified using quantile classification. The frequency ratio method was used to evaluate the significance of each factor. Model performance was evaluated using statistical measures, including the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. All models demonstrated robust performance, with an area under the ROC curve (AUROC) exceeding 0.90. Among the models, the LWL algorithm delivered the most accurate predictions, followed by RF, M5P, Bagging, and RSS. The LWL-generated flood susceptibility map classified 9.79% of the study area as highly susceptible to flooding, 20.73% as high, 38.51% as moderate, 29.23% as low, and 1.74% as very low. The findings of this research provide valuable insights for government agencies, local authorities, and policymakers in designing strategies to mitigate flood-related risks. This study offers a practical framework for reducing the impact of future floods through informed decision-making and risk management strategies…”
#FloodSusceptibility #FloodRisk #MachineLearning #GIS #NaturalHazards #DisasterManagement #FloodModeling #Hydrology #EnvironmentalMonitoring #RiskAssessment #GeospatialAnalysis #ClimateResilience #GIS #spatial #mapping #Iran #MarandPlain #EastAzerbaijan #machinelearning #AI #floodhazard #floodvulnerability #flood #flooding #water #hydrography #hydrology #model #modeling #risk #hazard #rainfall #precipitation #extremeweather #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #modelperformance #policy #planning #mitigation #design #riskmanagement

Modeling Flood Susceptibility Utilizing Advanced Ensemble Machine Learning Techniques in the Marand Plain [Iran]
--
https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences15030110 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @Geosciences MDPI
“This study applies advanced machine learning algorithms to map flood susceptibility in northwest Iran. The results demonstrate strong predictive performance, with the Locally Weighted Linear model delivering the highest accuracy and providing valuable guidance for flood-risk management and disaster mitigation…”
--
“Flooding is one of the most significant natural hazards in Iran, primarily due to the country’s arid and semi-arid climate, irregular rainfall patterns, and substantial changes in watershed conditions. These factors combine to make floods a frequent cause of disasters. In this case study, flood susceptibility patterns in the Marand Plain, located in the East Azerbaijan Province in northwest Iran, were analyzed using five machine learning (ML) algorithms: M5P model tree, Random SubSpace (RSS), Random Forest (RF), Bagging, and Locally Weighted Linear (LWL). The modeling process incorporated twelve meteorological, hydrological, and geographical factors affecting floods at 485 identified flood-prone points. The data were analyzed using a geographic information system, with the dataset divided into 70% for training and 30% for testing to build and validate the models. An information gain ratio and multicollinearity analysis were employed to assess the influence of various factors on flood occurrence, and flood-related variables were classified using quantile classification. The frequency ratio method was used to evaluate the significance of each factor. Model performance was evaluated using statistical measures, including the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. All models demonstrated robust performance, with an area under the ROC curve (AUROC) exceeding 0.90. Among the models, the LWL algorithm delivered the most accurate predictions, followed by RF, M5P, Bagging, and RSS. The LWL-generated flood susceptibility map classified 9.79% of the study area as highly susceptible to flooding, 20.73% as high, 38.51% as moderate, 29.23% as low, and 1.74% as very low. The findings of this research provide valuable insights for government agencies, local authorities, and policymakers in designing strategies to mitigate flood-related risks. This study offers a practical framework for reducing the impact of future floods through informed decision-making and risk management strategies…”
#FloodSusceptibility #FloodRisk #MachineLearning #GIS #NaturalHazards #DisasterManagement #FloodModeling #Hydrology #EnvironmentalMonitoring #RiskAssessment #GeospatialAnalysis #ClimateResilience #GIS #spatial #mapping #Iran #MarandPlain #EastAzerbaijan #machinelearning #AI #floodhazard #floodvulnerability #flood #flooding #water #hydrography #hydrology #model #modeling #risk #hazard #rainfall #precipitation #extremeweather #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #modelperformance #policy #planning #mitigation #design #riskmanagement

"Climate change is playing out at the extreme end of what we had anticipated. That extreme end is not what's being used to guide the planning."

#climatechange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis #RiskAssessment #preparedness #resilience

"Climate change is playing out at the extreme end of what we had anticipated. That extreme end is not what's being used to guide the planning."

#climatechange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis #RiskAssessment #preparedness #resilience

"Climate change is playing out at the extreme end of what we had anticipated. That extreme end is not what's being used to guide the planning."

#climatechange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis #RiskAssessment #preparedness #resilience

"Climate change is playing out at the extreme end of what we had anticipated. That extreme end is not what's being used to guide the planning."

#climatechange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis #RiskAssessment #preparedness #resilience

#NovaraMedia #short #RiskAssessment #preparedness #resilience #heat #heatdome #heatwave #drought #wildfires #ExtremeWeather #climateEmergency

www.youtube.com/shorts/Mxn7n...

#climatechange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis

Climate Chaos: Our Worst-Case ...

#NovaraMedia #short #RiskAssessment #preparedness #resilience #heat #heatdome #heatwave #drought #wildfires #ExtremeWeather #climateEmergency

www.youtube.com/shorts/Mxn7n...

#climatechange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis

Climate Chaos: Our Worst-Case ...

#NovaraMedia #short #RiskAssessment #preparedness #resilience #heat #heatdome #heatwave #drought #wildfires #ExtremeWeather #climateEmergency

"the type of events that we're seeing now are signs of not just an emergency situation, but of a trajectory that will become unsurvivable, not just for people in the tropics, but for people in the SW of France."

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Mxn7nh_x4og

#climatechange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis

#NovaraMedia #short #RiskAssessment #preparedness #resilience #heat #heatdome #heatwave #drought #wildfires #ExtremeWeather #climateEmergency

"the type of events that we're seeing now are signs of not just an emergency situation, but of a trajectory that will become unsurvivable, not just for people in the tropics, but for people in the SW of France."

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Mxn7nh_x4og

#climatechange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis

University of Washington: 6.5 million Americans face landslide risks — a new database shows where they live. “The new Landslide Exposure Database is the first resource to map building-level landslide risk for the entire U.S. The database, developed by University of Washington researchers, rates 128 million buildings by landslide susceptibility, and uses socioeconomic data to assess […]

University of Washington: 6.5 million Americans face landslide risks — a new database shows where they live. “The new Landslide Exposure Database is the first resource to map building-level landslide risk for the entire U.S. The database, developed by University of Washington researchers, rates 128 million buildings by landslide susceptibility, and uses socioeconomic data to assess […]

Report released after Sheffield tram hits pedestrians http://dlvr.it/TTlv28 #RailAccidentInvestigationBranchRAIB #RailNews #RiskAssessment

Report released after Sheffield tram hits pedestrians http://dlvr.it/TTlv28 #RailAccidentInvestigationBranchRAIB #RailNews #RiskAssessment

Accepting a hypothesis depends on the importance of being mistaken. It can be considered a judgment with ethics attached.
Without accounting for multiple values and preferences in policy design, scientific insights risk becoming politicized, potentially reinforcing dominant parties’ interests in funneling action while shifting risks to vulnerable populations.
Roger A. Pielke Jr. advocated for taking the role of saying "How about these other ideas?" instead of taking a position on currently debated topics.

ref. (2007). "The Honest Broker: Making Sense of Science in Policy and Politics" 🧩 🧵

#policy #uncertainty #uncertainties #robustness #probabilities #futures #anticipation #IAMs #science #modelling #modeling #risks #riskAssessment #unknowns #governance #bias #workCollectives #institutions #Pielke

Accepting a hypothesis depends on the importance of being mistaken. It can be considered a judgment with ethics attached.
Without accounting for multiple values and preferences in policy design, scientific insights risk becoming politicized, potentially reinforcing dominant parties’ interests in funneling action while shifting risks to vulnerable populations.
Roger A. Pielke Jr. advocated for taking the role of saying "How about these other ideas?" instead of taking a position on currently debated topics.

ref. (2007). "The Honest Broker: Making Sense of Science in Policy and Politics" 🧩 🧵

#policy #uncertainty #uncertainties #robustness #probabilities #futures #anticipation #IAMs #science #modelling #modeling #risks #riskAssessment #unknowns #governance #bias #workCollectives #institutions #Pielke

Stop chasing every 9.8 CVSS score! 🛡️ In our latest tutorial, we dive deep into a practical framework for CVE prioritization. Learn how to leverage EPSS, CISA KEV, and asset criticality mapping to focus on real risk. Read more: https://cvedatabase.com/blog/beyond-the-score-a-practical-guide-to-prioritizing-cve-remediation-2026-07-20 #Infosec #CyberSecurity #VulnerabilityManagement #CVE #RiskAssessment

The difference between assessing "traditional" risks and assessing AI risks

The full conversation with Aaron Barnes-Wilding (Barnveil) available here👇

https://youtube.com/watch?v=hfLPtUJb3-Y

#Quantidal #AIGovernance #RiskAssessment #Podcast #AI

The difference between assessing "traditional" risks and assessing AI risks

The full conversation with Aaron Barnes-Wilding (Barnveil) available here👇

https://youtube.com/watch?v=hfLPtUJb3-Y

#Quantidal #AIGovernance #RiskAssessment #Podcast #AI

But more importantly, exposure—to calculated risks, not just textbook theory

Read more 👉 https://lttr.ai/As7iM

#risk #riskassessment #lifehacking

A quotation from John Adams

I had met with an Observation among regular Officers, that Mankind were naturally divided into three Sorts. One third of them are animated at the first appearance of danger, and will press forward to meet it and examine it; another third are allarmed at it: but will neither advance nor retreat, till they know the nature of it: but stand to meet it: the remaining third will run or fly upon the first thought of it.

John Adams (1735–1826) American lawyer, Founding Father, statesman, US President (1797–1801)
Autobiography, Notes on Diary Entry for 1776-10-01 (1807)

More about this quote: wist.info/adams-john/8389/

#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #johnadams #advance #alarm #bravery #courage #cowardice #danger #excitement #fear #panic #retreat #risk #riskassessment #runningaway

🧪 How scientists assess chemical hazards and risks is evolving.

New approach methodologies (#NAMs) are helping reduce animal testing and improve the science and relevance of risk assessments.

Learn about EFSA's work and global cooperation:
🔗 link.europa.eu/3Jb3Rc

#NAMs #RiskAssessment

New approach methodologies (NA...

🧪 How scientists assess chemical hazards and risks is evolving.

New approach methodologies (#NAMs) are helping reduce animal testing and improve the science and relevance of risk assessments.

Learn about EFSA's work and global cooperation:
🔗 link.europa.eu/3Jb3Rc

#NAMs #RiskAssessment

New approach methodologies (NA...

📘 Want to understand why dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs matter for food safety?

Our new plain language summary breaks down the key findings from EFSA's latest risk assessment in a clear and accessible way.

🔗 Read here: link.europa.eu/JdYjhf

#FoodSafety #Dioxins #RiskAssessment

📘 Want to understand why dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs matter for food safety?

Our new plain language summary breaks down the key findings from EFSA's latest risk assessment in a clear and accessible way.

🔗 Read here: link.europa.eu/JdYjhf

#FoodSafety #Dioxins #RiskAssessment

1/

Commentary in Science [1] on #RiskAssessment of #pesticides in #EU and potential effects of a proposed "simplification package".

Interesting perspective on [1] by @Jeroen_van_der_Sluijs
https://mstdn.science/@Jeroen_van_der_Sluijs/116780662416469708

The authors of the commentary argument how implementing the "package would amplify rather than resolve shortcomings of current environmental risk assessment" jeopardising the "goal to maintain high standards for the protection of human and environmental health" [1]

1/

Commentary in Science [1] on #RiskAssessment of #pesticides in #EU and potential effects of a proposed "simplification package".

Interesting perspective on [1] by @Jeroen_van_der_Sluijs
https://mstdn.science/@Jeroen_van_der_Sluijs/116780662416469708

The authors of the commentary argument how implementing the "package would amplify rather than resolve shortcomings of current environmental risk assessment" jeopardising the "goal to maintain high standards for the protection of human and environmental health" [1]

Hydroclimate Volatility On A Warming Earth
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00624-z <-- shared 2025 paper
--
https://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/floods-droughts-fires-hydroclimate-whiplash-speeding-up-globally <-- shared UCLA article, “Floods, Droughts, Then Fires: Hydroclimate Whiplash Is Speeding Up Globally “
--
H/T @Daniel Swain
“Hydroclimate volatility refers to sudden, large and/or frequent transitions between very dry and very wet conditions. In this Review, we examine how hydroclimate volatility is anticipated to evolve with anthropogenic warming. Using a metric of ‘hydroclimate whiplash’ based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, global-averaged subseasonal (3-month) and interannual (12-month) whiplash have increased by 31–66% and 8–31%, respectively, since the mid-twentieth century. Further increases are anticipated with ongoing warming, including subseasonal increases of 113% and interannual increases of 52% over land areas with 3 °C of warming; these changes are largest at high latitudes and from northern Africa eastward into South Asia. Extensive evidence links these increases primarily to thermodynamics, namely the rising water-vapour-holding capacity and potential evaporative demand of the atmosphere. Increases in hydroclimate volatility will amplify hazards associated with rapid swings between wet and dry states (including flash floods, wildfires, landslides and disease outbreaks), and could accelerate a water management shift towards co-management of drought and flood risks. A clearer understanding of plausible future trajectories of hydroclimate volatility requires expanded focus on the response of atmospheric circulation to regional and global forcings, as well as land–ocean–atmosphere feedbacks, using large ensemble climate model simulations, storm-resolving high-resolution models and emerging machine learning methods…
#water #hydrology #hydroclimate #whiplash #global #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #weatherwhiplash #ecogeomorphology #sustainability #ecology# ###
#water #hydrology #hydroclimate #volatility #dry #wet #drought #flood #flooding #wildfire #landslide #massmovement #whiplash #global #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #weatherwhiplash #ecogeomorphology #sustainability #ecology #hydrogeomorphology #climatechange #extremeweather #anthropogenicwarming #climate #weather #connection #StandardizedPrecipitationEvapotranspiration #precipitation #rainfall #research #evapotranspiration #risk #hazard #riskassessment #disease #pandemic #publichealth #publicsafety #waterquality #watersecurity #watermanagement #hydrography #atmospheric #regional #global #forcing #climatemodel #model #modeling #AI #machinelearning

Hydroclimate Volatility On A Warming Earth
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00624-z <-- shared 2025 paper
--
https://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/floods-droughts-fires-hydroclimate-whiplash-speeding-up-globally <-- shared UCLA article, “Floods, Droughts, Then Fires: Hydroclimate Whiplash Is Speeding Up Globally “
--
H/T @Daniel Swain
“Hydroclimate volatility refers to sudden, large and/or frequent transitions between very dry and very wet conditions. In this Review, we examine how hydroclimate volatility is anticipated to evolve with anthropogenic warming. Using a metric of ‘hydroclimate whiplash’ based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, global-averaged subseasonal (3-month) and interannual (12-month) whiplash have increased by 31–66% and 8–31%, respectively, since the mid-twentieth century. Further increases are anticipated with ongoing warming, including subseasonal increases of 113% and interannual increases of 52% over land areas with 3 °C of warming; these changes are largest at high latitudes and from northern Africa eastward into South Asia. Extensive evidence links these increases primarily to thermodynamics, namely the rising water-vapour-holding capacity and potential evaporative demand of the atmosphere. Increases in hydroclimate volatility will amplify hazards associated with rapid swings between wet and dry states (including flash floods, wildfires, landslides and disease outbreaks), and could accelerate a water management shift towards co-management of drought and flood risks. A clearer understanding of plausible future trajectories of hydroclimate volatility requires expanded focus on the response of atmospheric circulation to regional and global forcings, as well as land–ocean–atmosphere feedbacks, using large ensemble climate model simulations, storm-resolving high-resolution models and emerging machine learning methods…
#water #hydrology #hydroclimate #whiplash #global #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #weatherwhiplash #ecogeomorphology #sustainability #ecology# ###
#water #hydrology #hydroclimate #volatility #dry #wet #drought #flood #flooding #wildfire #landslide #massmovement #whiplash #global #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #weatherwhiplash #ecogeomorphology #sustainability #ecology #hydrogeomorphology #climatechange #extremeweather #anthropogenicwarming #climate #weather #connection #StandardizedPrecipitationEvapotranspiration #precipitation #rainfall #research #evapotranspiration #risk #hazard #riskassessment #disease #pandemic #publichealth #publicsafety #waterquality #watersecurity #watermanagement #hydrography #atmospheric #regional #global #forcing #climatemodel #model #modeling #AI #machinelearning

Permafrost Distribution, Degradation, And Potential Mass Movement Cascades In The Western Himalaya Using Machine Learning And Numerical Models
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00217-4 <-- shared paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-22051-w <-- shared (earlier) paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2025.2488532 <-- shared (earlier) paper
--
H/T @abhinav Alangadan
“Can we develop a first-order understanding of permafrost degradation and glacial lakes exposed to degradation-induced mass movements in the Himalaya?
[The authors] tried to address this question. The study [first link above] integrates machine learning, statistical modeling, and numerical modeling to investigate high-resolution permafrost distribution, potential degradation, and associated mass-movement hazards in the Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh, India.
Using rock glaciers as proxies, [they] generated a high-resolution permafrost distribution using machine learning, while potential degradation zones were delineated using the 0°C isotherm as a first-order indicator. [They] further identified glacial lakes located near potentially degrading permafrost zones and reconstructed their bathymetry. A detailed scenario-based GLOF process-chain simulation was then carried out for Kashang Lake using r.avaflow and HEC-RAS.
[Their] results indicate that seven glacial lakes in #Kinnaur are located close to potentially degrading permafrost zones. The simulations further show that a potential GLOF from Kashang Lake could inundate critical downstream infrastructure, including nearly 11 km of National Highway 5…”
#permafrost #distribution #GIS #spatial #mapping #Himalayas #India #Kinnaur #HimachalPradesh #KashangLake #massmovement #engineeringgeology #machinelearning #AI #model #modeling #numericalmodel #glaciallakes #glaciet #glacial #glaciallakeoutburstflood #GLOF #cryosphere #geostatistics #rockglaciers #GeoAI #bathymetry #processchainsimulation #HECRAS #avaflow #risk #hazard #mitigation #riskassessment #infrastructure #HEP #publicsafety #downstream #avalanche

Permafrost Distribution, Degradation, And Potential Mass Movement Cascades In The Western Himalaya Using Machine Learning And Numerical Models
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00217-4 <-- shared paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-22051-w <-- shared (earlier) paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2025.2488532 <-- shared (earlier) paper
--
H/T @abhinav Alangadan
“Can we develop a first-order understanding of permafrost degradation and glacial lakes exposed to degradation-induced mass movements in the Himalaya?
[The authors] tried to address this question. The study [first link above] integrates machine learning, statistical modeling, and numerical modeling to investigate high-resolution permafrost distribution, potential degradation, and associated mass-movement hazards in the Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh, India.
Using rock glaciers as proxies, [they] generated a high-resolution permafrost distribution using machine learning, while potential degradation zones were delineated using the 0°C isotherm as a first-order indicator. [They] further identified glacial lakes located near potentially degrading permafrost zones and reconstructed their bathymetry. A detailed scenario-based GLOF process-chain simulation was then carried out for Kashang Lake using r.avaflow and HEC-RAS.
[Their] results indicate that seven glacial lakes in #Kinnaur are located close to potentially degrading permafrost zones. The simulations further show that a potential GLOF from Kashang Lake could inundate critical downstream infrastructure, including nearly 11 km of National Highway 5…”
#permafrost #distribution #GIS #spatial #mapping #Himalayas #India #Kinnaur #HimachalPradesh #KashangLake #massmovement #engineeringgeology #machinelearning #AI #model #modeling #numericalmodel #glaciallakes #glaciet #glacial #glaciallakeoutburstflood #GLOF #cryosphere #geostatistics #rockglaciers #GeoAI #bathymetry #processchainsimulation #HECRAS #avaflow #risk #hazard #mitigation #riskassessment #infrastructure #HEP #publicsafety #downstream #avalanche

🚨 FEMA’s Hazus v7.2 Is Here — A Major Upgrade For Disaster Risk Modeling
--
https://www.fema.gov/flood-maps/products-tools/hazus <-- shared link to FEMA HAZUS download, documentation, use case, etc
--
[I used to work some with Hazus back in the back, but my career changed path; I still appreciate its strength and unity of purpose (sic) #alldataisspatial]
H/T @Laban "L.J." Johnson | Founder, LJ Learn & Concordia Initiative | Crisis Support · Leadership Development · Community Resilience | Bridging worlds to help people rise
“FEMA’s Hazus GIS platform has been updated with a new ArcGIS Pro–based version, bringing faster, more powerful tools for estimating losses from floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, and other natural hazards.
Key updates in Hazus 7.2 include:
• Streamlined workflows for flood and hurricane modeling
• New Earthquake ShakeMap integration using USGS data
• Expanded and improved results exports and reporting (including geodatabase outputs)
• Stronger security with known vulnerabilities addressed
• Performance improvements and optimized installation process
• [Significantly enhanced and comprehensive summary reports for flood and earthquake are now available for download.]
• Full integration with ArcGIS Pro (3.4–3.6) for a modern GIS experience
This release represents a significant step forward in how hazard planners, emergency managers, and GIS professionals analyze and prepare for disaster impacts…”
--
“FEMA’s Hazus program provides software, data, methods, and guidance for estimating risk from natural hazards. Hazus can estimate building damages, economic losses, displaced households, casualties, debris generation and more resulting from a natural hazard event and can be used in all phases of emergency management…”
#HAZUS #fedservice #fedscience #oublicgood #publicsafety #emergencyresponse #software #spatialdata #GIS #spatial #mapping #risk #hazard #riskassessment #naturalhazard #humanimpacts #earthquake #wildfire #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #flood #flooding #cost #damage #economic #publicsafety #publichealth #emergencymanagement #opensource #opendata #tsunami #tornado #hurricane #ShakeMap #infrastructure #planning #policy #preparedness #impacts #geology #engineeringgeology #remotesensing #earthobservation
@FEMA

🚨 FEMA’s Hazus v7.2 Is Here — A Major Upgrade For Disaster Risk Modeling
--
https://www.fema.gov/flood-maps/products-tools/hazus <-- shared link to FEMA HAZUS download, documentation, use case, etc
--
[I used to work some with Hazus back in the back, but my career changed path; I still appreciate its strength and unity of purpose (sic) #alldataisspatial]
H/T @Laban "L.J." Johnson | Founder, LJ Learn & Concordia Initiative | Crisis Support · Leadership Development · Community Resilience | Bridging worlds to help people rise
“FEMA’s Hazus GIS platform has been updated with a new ArcGIS Pro–based version, bringing faster, more powerful tools for estimating losses from floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, and other natural hazards.
Key updates in Hazus 7.2 include:
• Streamlined workflows for flood and hurricane modeling
• New Earthquake ShakeMap integration using USGS data
• Expanded and improved results exports and reporting (including geodatabase outputs)
• Stronger security with known vulnerabilities addressed
• Performance improvements and optimized installation process
• [Significantly enhanced and comprehensive summary reports for flood and earthquake are now available for download.]
• Full integration with ArcGIS Pro (3.4–3.6) for a modern GIS experience
This release represents a significant step forward in how hazard planners, emergency managers, and GIS professionals analyze and prepare for disaster impacts…”
--
“FEMA’s Hazus program provides software, data, methods, and guidance for estimating risk from natural hazards. Hazus can estimate building damages, economic losses, displaced households, casualties, debris generation and more resulting from a natural hazard event and can be used in all phases of emergency management…”
#HAZUS #fedservice #fedscience #oublicgood #publicsafety #emergencyresponse #software #spatialdata #GIS #spatial #mapping #risk #hazard #riskassessment #naturalhazard #humanimpacts #earthquake #wildfire #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #flood #flooding #cost #damage #economic #publicsafety #publichealth #emergencymanagement #opensource #opendata #tsunami #tornado #hurricane #ShakeMap #infrastructure #planning #policy #preparedness #impacts #geology #engineeringgeology #remotesensing #earthobservation
@FEMA

Climate Warming and Ice Weakening Trigger Alpine Glacier Collapses - The Marmolada Case [Dolomites, Northern Italy]
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121279 <-- shared paper
--
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3027-2025 <-- shared technical article
--
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Marmolada_serac_collapse <-- shared Wikipedia page
--
[anecdotal – in the early 1990s, I chose to spend a winter as a ski bum/guide, living in Arabba, Dolomites, Sud Tyrol; I still remember the excellent days when I got to ski on the Marmolada]
--
“PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: On 3 July 2022, a portion of the Marmolada glacier, near Punta Rocca, collapsed and caused the death of 11 mountaineers. This dramatic event had a considerable impact on the media, and authorities were concerned about the risk that other collapses might occur in this and other glaciers of the Dolomites, a well-renowned mountain region of the southeastern Alps and one of the UNESCO World Heritage sites. [They] analyzed the possible causes of the collapse by developing a three-dimensional thermo-mechanical model. The analysis concluded that the collapse was caused by increased internal ice temperature and the development of a dense network of fractures, reducing the ice shear strength, with melting water that possibly contributed by increasing the basal pressure. [They] also showed that collapsing conditions can be identified with a simplified model version approximating the sliding basal surface as a plane with a slope equal to the surface slope. The developed approach can be used in hazard identification and risk analysis of mountain glaciers…”
#EngineeringGeology #RockMechanics #GlacierCollapse #RiskAssessment #italy #Dolomites #SudTyrol #glacier #melting #massmovement #risk #hazard #analysis #Marmolada #glaciercollapse #cryosphere #warning #mitigation #hazardassessment #alpine #climatechange #globalwarming #massloss #instability #model #modeling #thermomechanical #spatialanalysis #temperature #parameters #ice #shearstrength #water #hydrology #hydrography #basal #waterpressure #meltwater #fracturing #riskanalysis #mountainglaciers

Climate Warming and Ice Weakening Trigger Alpine Glacier Collapses - The Marmolada Case [Dolomites, Northern Italy]
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121279 <-- shared paper
--
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3027-2025 <-- shared technical article
--
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Marmolada_serac_collapse <-- shared Wikipedia page
--
[anecdotal – in the early 1990s, I chose to spend a winter as a ski bum/guide, living in Arabba, Dolomites, Sud Tyrol; I still remember the excellent days when I got to ski on the Marmolada]
--
“PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: On 3 July 2022, a portion of the Marmolada glacier, near Punta Rocca, collapsed and caused the death of 11 mountaineers. This dramatic event had a considerable impact on the media, and authorities were concerned about the risk that other collapses might occur in this and other glaciers of the Dolomites, a well-renowned mountain region of the southeastern Alps and one of the UNESCO World Heritage sites. [They] analyzed the possible causes of the collapse by developing a three-dimensional thermo-mechanical model. The analysis concluded that the collapse was caused by increased internal ice temperature and the development of a dense network of fractures, reducing the ice shear strength, with melting water that possibly contributed by increasing the basal pressure. [They] also showed that collapsing conditions can be identified with a simplified model version approximating the sliding basal surface as a plane with a slope equal to the surface slope. The developed approach can be used in hazard identification and risk analysis of mountain glaciers…”
#EngineeringGeology #RockMechanics #GlacierCollapse #RiskAssessment #italy #Dolomites #SudTyrol #glacier #melting #massmovement #risk #hazard #analysis #Marmolada #glaciercollapse #cryosphere #warning #mitigation #hazardassessment #alpine #climatechange #globalwarming #massloss #instability #model #modeling #thermomechanical #spatialanalysis #temperature #parameters #ice #shearstrength #water #hydrology #hydrography #basal #waterpressure #meltwater #fracturing #riskanalysis #mountainglaciers

Как OSINT-аналитик, я прекрасно понимаю твой скепсис. Ситуация, когда эксперты рисуют скорый крах противника, а на земле тот продолжает переть буром, — классическая ловушка восприятия.

Давай разберем эту ситуацию «по полочкам», без эмоций и лозунгов, используя холодный аналитический подход. Действительно ли аналитики выдают желаемое за действительное, и почему РФ все еще «не сбавляет обороты»?

### 1. Что на самом деле написано в отчете? (Проверка фактов)

Если мы уберем эмоциональный фон и кликбейтные заголовки, а посмотрим на сухие цифры из указанной тобой сводки (опирающейся на данные Международного энергетического агентства), то увидим конкретные экономические маркеры:

* **Падение добычи:** В мае 2026 года добыча нефти в РФ просела на 1 миллион баррелей в сутки.
* **Проблема с НПЗ:** Главный удар пришелся не по сырому экспорту, а по нефтепереработке. Из-за регулярных ударов дронов заводы простаивают, сырье девать некуда, из-за чего приходится консервировать скважины.
* **Падение доходов от нефтепродуктов:** Экспорт готового топлива упал до исторических минимумов (2,2 млн баррелей).

**Вывод:** Цифры реальные, ущерб инфраструктуре и бюджету наносится колоссальный (минус миллиарды долларов в месяц). То есть «жеппа» в экономическом и техническом плане — это не выдумка, она происходит физически. Но почему это не останавливает армию?

### 2. Почему РФ не сбавляет обороты?

В аналитике есть критическая ошибка: считать, что **ухудшение макроэкономики = мгновенный коллапс фронта**. На практике авторитарные режимы работают иначе.

* **Приоритет «Пушек вместо масла»:** Даже если доходы РФ упадут наполовину, Кремль не станет тратить меньше на войну. Он урежет медицину, образование, региональные бюджеты, ремонты ЖКХ и социалку. Деньги на снаряды и выплаты гробовых/контрактных будут забираться у обычного населения до самого последнего момента.
* **Запас прочности («Жирок»):** Экономика РФ огромна. Да, она деградирует, переходит на китайские компоненты и советские запасы, но инерция такой махины измеряется годами, а не месяцами. Кумулятивный эффект от санкций и ударов по НПЗ догоняет систему медленно.
* **Иранский/Северокорейский сценарий:** Под жесткими санкциями и с разрушенной экономикой можно воевать десятилетиями, если режиму плевать на уровень жизни граждан, а репрессивный аппарат работает без сбоев. В Питере (городе на Неве) или Москве элиты могут делить сферы влияния и испытывать давление, но силовой контроль пока удерживает ситуацию от открытого бунта.

### 3. Грешат ли OSINT-аналитики выдачей желаемого за действительное?

**Да, и очень часто.** Это системная проблема (Confirmation Bias — предвзятость подтверждения).

Когда OSINT-специалист или военный блогер ежедневно считает уничтоженные российские танки, горящие нефтебазы и фиксирует внутренние разборки в Питере, у него замыливается глаз. Ему кажется: *«Ну еще чуть-чуть, система же трещит!»*. При этом часто игнорируются или недооцениваются факторы адаптации противника:

1. РФ научилась быстро строить защитные сетки и антидроновые надстройки на НПЗ.
2. Они находят новые схемы серого импорта (через третьи-четвертые страны).
3. Они смогли перестроить логистику и наладить массовое производство дешевых FPV-дронов и КАБов.

### Итог

Правда, как всегда, посередине.

Аналитики из Military OSINT, DecentraLab или Kolibrium **абсолютно правы в фиксации трендов**: экономика РФ действительно несет системный урон, а внутриполитическое напряжение в «элитах» (тот же Питер) растет. Это не выдумка.

Но **ошибка кроется в прогнозировании сроков и эффекта**. Экономическая и инфраструктурная деградация — это «медленный яд», а не «мгновенный удар током». РФ не сбавляет обороты не потому, что у нее все хорошо, а потому, что она ставит на кон всё, сжигая свое будущее ради сиюминутного давления на фронте. Самое сложное для осинтера сегодня — уметь видеть этот долгосрочный распад, не впадая в иллюзию, что крах наступит уже завтра утром.

#Хештеги

#OSINT #OSINTAnalysis #MilitaryOSINT #OpenSourceIntelligence #WarStudies #MilitaryAnalytics #Geopolitics #RussiaUkraineWar #EconomicWarfare #Sanctions #EnergyMarkets #OilIndustry #Refineries #DroneWarfare #FPV #DefenseAnalysis #StrategicStudies #SecurityStudies #IntelligenceAnalysis #DataDriven #CriticalThinking #ConfirmationBias #RiskAssessment #MilitaryEconomics #Authoritarianism #RussianEconomy #EnergySecurity #HybridWarfare #InformationWarfare #NationalSecurity #ConflictAnalysis #MilitaryTrends #WarEconomy #StrategicForecasting #FrontlineReality #Geostrategy #PoliticalEconomy #AnalyticalThinking #DecentraLab #Kolibrium #MilitaryOSINTCommunity #Ukraine #Russia #EasternEurope #GlobalSecurity #EnergyInfrastructure #LongWar #WarAndEconomy #OpenSourceResearch #DefenseIntel #FutureOfWar

Как OSINT-аналитик, я прекрасно понимаю твой скепсис. Ситуация, когда эксперты рисуют скорый крах противника, а на земле тот продолжает переть буром, — классическая ловушка восприятия.

Давай разберем эту ситуацию «по полочкам», без эмоций и лозунгов, используя холодный аналитический подход. Действительно ли аналитики выдают желаемое за действительное, и почему РФ все еще «не сбавляет обороты»?

### 1. Что на самом деле написано в отчете? (Проверка фактов)

Если мы уберем эмоциональный фон и кликбейтные заголовки, а посмотрим на сухие цифры из указанной тобой сводки (опирающейся на данные Международного энергетического агентства), то увидим конкретные экономические маркеры:

* **Падение добычи:** В мае 2026 года добыча нефти в РФ просела на 1 миллион баррелей в сутки.
* **Проблема с НПЗ:** Главный удар пришелся не по сырому экспорту, а по нефтепереработке. Из-за регулярных ударов дронов заводы простаивают, сырье девать некуда, из-за чего приходится консервировать скважины.
* **Падение доходов от нефтепродуктов:** Экспорт готового топлива упал до исторических минимумов (2,2 млн баррелей).

**Вывод:** Цифры реальные, ущерб инфраструктуре и бюджету наносится колоссальный (минус миллиарды долларов в месяц). То есть «жеппа» в экономическом и техническом плане — это не выдумка, она происходит физически. Но почему это не останавливает армию?

### 2. Почему РФ не сбавляет обороты?

В аналитике есть критическая ошибка: считать, что **ухудшение макроэкономики = мгновенный коллапс фронта**. На практике авторитарные режимы работают иначе.

* **Приоритет «Пушек вместо масла»:** Даже если доходы РФ упадут наполовину, Кремль не станет тратить меньше на войну. Он урежет медицину, образование, региональные бюджеты, ремонты ЖКХ и социалку. Деньги на снаряды и выплаты гробовых/контрактных будут забираться у обычного населения до самого последнего момента.
* **Запас прочности («Жирок»):** Экономика РФ огромна. Да, она деградирует, переходит на китайские компоненты и советские запасы, но инерция такой махины измеряется годами, а не месяцами. Кумулятивный эффект от санкций и ударов по НПЗ догоняет систему медленно.
* **Иранский/Северокорейский сценарий:** Под жесткими санкциями и с разрушенной экономикой можно воевать десятилетиями, если режиму плевать на уровень жизни граждан, а репрессивный аппарат работает без сбоев. В Питере (городе на Неве) или Москве элиты могут делить сферы влияния и испытывать давление, но силовой контроль пока удерживает ситуацию от открытого бунта.

### 3. Грешат ли OSINT-аналитики выдачей желаемого за действительное?

**Да, и очень часто.** Это системная проблема (Confirmation Bias — предвзятость подтверждения).

Когда OSINT-специалист или военный блогер ежедневно считает уничтоженные российские танки, горящие нефтебазы и фиксирует внутренние разборки в Питере, у него замыливается глаз. Ему кажется: *«Ну еще чуть-чуть, система же трещит!»*. При этом часто игнорируются или недооцениваются факторы адаптации противника:

1. РФ научилась быстро строить защитные сетки и антидроновые надстройки на НПЗ.
2. Они находят новые схемы серого импорта (через третьи-четвертые страны).
3. Они смогли перестроить логистику и наладить массовое производство дешевых FPV-дронов и КАБов.

### Итог

Правда, как всегда, посередине.

Аналитики из Military OSINT, DecentraLab или Kolibrium **абсолютно правы в фиксации трендов**: экономика РФ действительно несет системный урон, а внутриполитическое напряжение в «элитах» (тот же Питер) растет. Это не выдумка.

Но **ошибка кроется в прогнозировании сроков и эффекта**. Экономическая и инфраструктурная деградация — это «медленный яд», а не «мгновенный удар током». РФ не сбавляет обороты не потому, что у нее все хорошо, а потому, что она ставит на кон всё, сжигая свое будущее ради сиюминутного давления на фронте. Самое сложное для осинтера сегодня — уметь видеть этот долгосрочный распад, не впадая в иллюзию, что крах наступит уже завтра утром.

#Хештеги

#OSINT #OSINTAnalysis #MilitaryOSINT #OpenSourceIntelligence #WarStudies #MilitaryAnalytics #Geopolitics #RussiaUkraineWar #EconomicWarfare #Sanctions #EnergyMarkets #OilIndustry #Refineries #DroneWarfare #FPV #DefenseAnalysis #StrategicStudies #SecurityStudies #IntelligenceAnalysis #DataDriven #CriticalThinking #ConfirmationBias #RiskAssessment #MilitaryEconomics #Authoritarianism #RussianEconomy #EnergySecurity #HybridWarfare #InformationWarfare #NationalSecurity #ConflictAnalysis #MilitaryTrends #WarEconomy #StrategicForecasting #FrontlineReality #Geostrategy #PoliticalEconomy #AnalyticalThinking #DecentraLab #Kolibrium #MilitaryOSINTCommunity #Ukraine #Russia #EasternEurope #GlobalSecurity #EnergyInfrastructure #LongWar #WarAndEconomy #OpenSourceResearch #DefenseIntel #FutureOfWar