#riskassessment — Public Fediverse posts

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The 2026 episode questions the livability of territories.
"We do not rule out having temperatures around 48-50 degrees in a punctual and very regional manner in France."

"Climate change which is linked to our predatory and unsustainable lifestyles is emerging."

We need to quit management and embrace transformation.
"The priority no longer is to return to normal, no longer to do things as before, it is to change."

There are worldviews to transform.

Christophe Cassou researches climate. Listen to him in French: https://www.radiofrance.fr/franceculture/podcasts/l-invite-e-des-matins-d-ete/christophe-cassou-face-a-l-ete-cataclysmique-vivre-ce-que-l-on-a-passe-sa-vie-a-annoncer-2357103

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#foresight #adaptation #habitability #livability #climateForcing #carbon #climateDrift #wildfires #climateChange #climate #ecologicalTransition #greenTransition #anticipation #forests #pines #France #risks #riskAssessment

Society must anticipate: prepare not for this year's climate but for the future climates. 🧵

#livability #climatePolicy #riskManagement #riskAssessment #policy #adaptation #forests #climateDrift #climateChange #heatwaves #naturalDisasters #resilience #agriculture #wildfires #poliSky #foresight

Society must anticipate: prepare not for this year's climate but for the future climates. 🧵

#futures #risks #risk #riskManagement #riskAssessment #livability #habitability #climatePolicy #policy #adaptation #plantations #forestry #climateDrift #climateChange #climateFailure #climateCollapse #drought #heatwaves #naturalDisasters #resilience #agriculture #megafires #wildfire #wildfires

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The EU's adaptation framework serves as a distraction. The cover for treating adaptation as purely technical is thinner than it has been in years. This summer ongoing disasters offer an opening to:
* discuss adaptation;
* look at the perpetrators: https://fed.brid.gy/r/https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:ghfylraepxvzz7zjex4nelzw/post/3msbmrpwlhc2v

_References_

The present thread was inspired by two other voices about the same technocratic output: http://strategicclimaterisks.substack.com/p/how-the-eu-adaptation-framework-vastly

Here is the announcement of the report from the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, 'Strengthening resilience to climate change – Recommendations for an effective EU adaptation policy framework': https://climate-advisory-board.europa.eu/news/escalating-climate-impacts-demand-urgent-coordinated-adaptation-across-the-eu

#climatePolicy #adaptation #climateChange #livability #policy #climate #riskAssessment #governance #uncertainty #EU #EuropeanUnion #Europe

#Adaptation gets treated as technical work when it's extremely political. Someone decides which communities are defended, which regions are given up, and who pays.
France's mega-basin enforcers show how such centralization triggers organised resistance: https://climatejustice.social/@breton/112934411029720286

Whatever gets planned has to be delivered inside worsening instability.
Budgets raided by the latest emergency, civil services running on depleted trust, supply chains competing against reconstruction elsewhere.
Researchers call this derailment risk, and every plan should account for it: https://scri.org.uk/publications/report-derailment-risk
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#climatePolicy #adaptation #climateChange #livability #policy #climate #riskAssessment #derailment #climateEmergency #agriculture

The EU report is detailed and gives an impression that a 3°C planet would be harsh but manageable under the same institutions.
The report does not wonder about unknown unknowns. It does not address supply-chain disruption, financial contagion or people displacement. It lives in a fancy Fortress Europe.

The report also never mentions #AMOC once, even as the evidence for the risk of its collapse to Europe hardens and Iceland starts treating it as a national security threat:
https://mas.to/@maugendre/111917327688619004 🧵

#climatePolicy #adaptation #climateChange #livability #policy #climate #futures #EUPol #Europe #risks #riskAssessment

Hydroclimate Volatility On A Warming Earth
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00624-z <-- shared 2025 paper
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https://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/floods-droughts-fires-hydroclimate-whiplash-speeding-up-globally <-- shared UCLA article, “Floods, Droughts, Then Fires: Hydroclimate Whiplash Is Speeding Up Globally “
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H/T @Daniel Swain
“Hydroclimate volatility refers to sudden, large and/or frequent transitions between very dry and very wet conditions. In this Review, we examine how hydroclimate volatility is anticipated to evolve with anthropogenic warming. Using a metric of ‘hydroclimate whiplash’ based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, global-averaged subseasonal (3-month) and interannual (12-month) whiplash have increased by 31–66% and 8–31%, respectively, since the mid-twentieth century. Further increases are anticipated with ongoing warming, including subseasonal increases of 113% and interannual increases of 52% over land areas with 3 °C of warming; these changes are largest at high latitudes and from northern Africa eastward into South Asia. Extensive evidence links these increases primarily to thermodynamics, namely the rising water-vapour-holding capacity and potential evaporative demand of the atmosphere. Increases in hydroclimate volatility will amplify hazards associated with rapid swings between wet and dry states (including flash floods, wildfires, landslides and disease outbreaks), and could accelerate a water management shift towards co-management of drought and flood risks. A clearer understanding of plausible future trajectories of hydroclimate volatility requires expanded focus on the response of atmospheric circulation to regional and global forcings, as well as land–ocean–atmosphere feedbacks, using large ensemble climate model simulations, storm-resolving high-resolution models and emerging machine learning methods…
#water #hydrology #hydroclimate #whiplash #global #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #weatherwhiplash #ecogeomorphology #sustainability #ecology# ###
#water #hydrology #hydroclimate #volatility #dry #wet #drought #flood #flooding #wildfire #landslide #massmovement #whiplash #global #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #weatherwhiplash #ecogeomorphology #sustainability #ecology #hydrogeomorphology #climatechange #extremeweather #anthropogenicwarming #climate #weather #connection #StandardizedPrecipitationEvapotranspiration #precipitation #rainfall #research #evapotranspiration #risk #hazard #riskassessment #disease #pandemic #publichealth #publicsafety #waterquality #watersecurity #watermanagement #hydrography #atmospheric #regional #global #forcing #climatemodel #model #modeling #AI #machinelearning

Karst Flash Floods - An Example From The Dinaric Karst (Croatia)
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-195-2006 <-- shared (older) paper
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#flood #flooding #pluvial #fluvial #subsurface #risk #hazard #naturalhazard #disaster #flashflood #infrastructure #damage #building #destabilisation #foundations #karstburst #Marina #Dinaric #Croatia #extremeweather #climatechange #intense #prolonged #rainfall #precipitation #speed #fast #caves #conduits #fractures #aquifers #water #hydrology #groundwater #hydrogeology #waterpressure #sinkhole #subsidence #massmovement #landslide #monitoring #mapping #geology #engineeringgeology #hydroseismic #humanimpacts #lossoflife #death #karstterrain #springs #debris #sediment #cavities #riskassessment #Grazalema #Andalusia #Cadíz #Spain #StormLeonard #emergencymanagement #planning

High Resolution Simulation Of Urban Compound Flooding Under Climate Impacts
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102771 <-- shared paper
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#ClimateChange #FloodResilience #UrbanPlanning #ClimateAdaptation #HydrodynamicModeling #CompoundFlooding #SeaLevelRise #sealevel #Flood #flooding #depth #hazard #risk #riskassessment #Urban #urbanplanning #resilience #NewYorkCity #NYC #Hoboken #NewJersey #infrastructure #damage #cost #economics #vulnerability #urban #hydrodynamic #city #cities #climatechange #extremeweather #model #modeling #spatial #GIS #mapping #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #highresolution #pluvia #rainfall #precipitation #fluvial #HurricaneIda #stormsurge #building #structures #topography #drainagesystems #infiltration #emergencyservices #framework #workflow #methodology

Gen AI data violations more than double https://www.helpnetsecurity.com/2026/01/07/gen-ai-data-violations-2026/ #Artificialintelligence #securitycontrols #riskassessment #cloudsecurity #cybersecurity #GenerativeAI #Don'tmiss #Netskope #report #survey #News

A quotation from Terry Pratchett

And Sergeant Colon once again knew a secret about bravery. It was arguably a kind of enhanced cowardice — the knowledge that while death may await you if you advance it will be a picnic compared to the certain living hell that awaits should you retreat.

Terry Pratchett (1948-2015) English author
Discworld No. 21, Jingo (1988)

More about this quote: wist.info/pratchett-terry/8091…

#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #terrypratchett #discworld #alternatives #bravery #costbenefit #courage #cowardice #danger #death #informeddecision #punishment #retreat #riskanalysis #riskassessment

Mapping Current And Future Flood Exposure Using A 5 Metre Flood Model And Climate Change Projections [Vancouver, Canada]
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https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/24/699/2024/ <-- shared technical article
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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/17/pacific-north-west-flooding-british-columbia-washington-state-canada <-- shared 2021 technical media article, PNW flooding
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[this post should not be considered an endorsement of a specific vendor, etc]
#water #hydrology #flood #flooding #risk #hazard #Vancouver #BritishColumbia #Canada #climatechange #extremeweather #localfloods #GIS #spatial #mapping #riskassessment #spatialanalysis #floodexposure #riskmapping #model #modeling #floodriskmanagement #riskmanagement #naturaldisaster #rainfall #precipitation #stormsurge #hazardmapping #floodmapping #floodrisk #infrastructure #cost #economics #fluvial #pluvial #geomorphology #elevation #geomorphometry #regulatory #regulations #spatiotemporal

New Study Links Flood Risk And Hurricane Attributes In Southwest Florida
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https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/news/new-study-links-flood-risk-and-hurricane-attributes-in-southwest-florida/ <-- shared technical article
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00141-z <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #model #modeling #risk #hazard #building #damage #flood #flooding #hurricane #Florida #USA #economy #cost #infrastructure #extremeweather #HurricaneIrma #HurricaneIan #floodmodel #SLR #sealevelrise #stormsurge #vegetation #FEMA #NFIP #floodinsurance #HAZUS #opendata #stakeholders #riskassessment #propertyvalue
@NOAA

Weather-Induced Landslide Activity In Clayey Slopes - Modeling For The Design Of Site-Scale Early Warning Systems [Italy]
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https://doi.org/10.1061/JGGEFK.GTENG-13248 <-- shared paper
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#geology #engineeringgeology #massmovement #landslide #clay #GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #geotechnical #geotechnicalengineering #model #modeling #statistics #soil #topsoil #seepage #water #hydrology #infiltration #porewater #pressure #slope #clay #clayey #safetyfactor #mitigation #management #numericalanalyses #extremeweather #weather #rainfall #precipitation #earlywarning #risk #hazard #riskassessment #italy

Towards A Simpler Assessment Of The Environmental Impact Of Hydrographic Echosounders
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https://ihr.iho.int/articles/towards-a-simpler-assessment-of-the-environmental-impact-of-hydrographic-echosounders/ <-- shared paper
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https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/s3/2024-05/NMSFAcousticGuidance-DraftTECHMEMOGuidance-3.0-FEB-24-OPR1.pdf <-- shared NOAA 2024 guidance
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https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.0070 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #communityhydrography #echosounder #environmentalimpact #hydrography #marinemammals #whales #cetaceans #survey #impacts #humanimpacts #logistics #management #planning #ecosystems #seafloor #sonar #remotesensing #marine #animals #risk #hazard #multibeam #model #modeling #impactassessment #riskassessment #auditory #fish #habitat #strandings

More Faults, More Resolution, More Features - The New Zealand Active Faults Database Webmap Gets A Major Upgrade
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https://www.gns.cri.nz/news/more-faults-more-resolution-more-features-the-nz-active-faults-database-webmap-gets-a-major-upgrade/ <-- shared technical article
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https://data.gns.cri.nz/af/ <-- New Zealand Active Faults home page/ webmap
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #spatiotemporal #fault #faulting #NewZealand #earthquake #geology #risk #hazard #groundsurface #webmap #record #database #surfacetrace #geomorphology #geomorphmetry #NZAFD #infrastructure #earthquakeengineering #engineeringgeology #planning #urbanplanning #regulations #geotechnical #landuse #permits #slip #frequency #riskassessment #GNS
@gnsscience

Comprehensive Risk Evaluation In Rapti Valley, Nepal - A Multi-Hazard Approach
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100346 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #rapti #lumbini #risk #hazard #nepal #suspectibility #vulnerability #flood #flooding #water #hydrology #multihazard #riskassessment #geology #engineeringgeology #massmovement #landslides #debrisflows #erosion #model #modeling #map #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #remotesensing #susceptibility #planning #development #mitigation #urbanplanning #naturalhazards #probability #geostatistics #forestfire #wildfire #bushfire #extremeweather #climatechange #vulnerability #physical #social #publicsafety #economic #environmental #riskzones

Crypto for Advisors: Crypto and Compliance - The coming years are crucial for compliance and risk in crypto. Beth Haddock discusses st... - https://www.coindesk.com/opinion/2024/07/11/crypto-for-advisors-crypto-and-compliance/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines #portfoliomanagement #riskassessment #complaint #advisors #advisers #opinion #adviser #trust #risk

This is an exceptional article about #COVID #risk #minimization techniques. I wish I had written it. I recommend it to anyone who takes #SARS2 #RiskManagement seriously.

tl;dr? Here is a brief summary🧵

https://howtohideapandemic.substack.com/p/how-to-hide-a-pandemic

The article summaries the techniques of #risk #mininizers, who while telling you to do your own #riskAssessment are also engaged in *propaganda* (and I choose that word advisedly) to establish a different narrative with the objective of manufacturing consent for #massInfection

You cannot #RiskManage what you do not see, think about, talk about or measure. If you want to manage your COVID risk, you need to understand, think around & through the minimization techniques.

I wrote about this recently in my Raven Rock post, where similar techniques were used during the cold war. As a society, we have done this before, with the risk of nuclear war. And currently, with the risk of climate change.

Thank you @anarchademic for highlighting it. I have subscribed.

RT @PARC_chemicals: Excited to share with you our new PARC website!
👉https://www.eu-parc.eu/

#chemicals #riskassessment #Safe-and-sustainable-by-design #humanhealth #environment #innovative tools #zeropollution #carcinogenicity #endocrine disruptors #sciencetopolicy?

Website design @RNDRnl

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/EUEnvironment/status/1631584180038426624

📨 First #OSHmail for 2023 is out!
In this edition:
✔ Can digital #MonitoringSystems redefine workers’ safety and health?
✔ New #OiRAtools will help you plan a #RiskAssessment at your workplace
...and much more from the world of #OSH!
👀 https://osha.europa.eu/en/newsletter/oshmail-244?pk_campaign=sm

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/EU_OSHA/status/1613464596542521344