#permafrost — Public Fediverse posts

Le Tribunal du Net: Un #animal congelé depuis 24 000 ans dans le #Permafrost en #Sibérie se #réveille et se #reproduit en laboratoire !

https://www.letribunaldunet.fr/science/animal-congele-24000-ans-siberie-reveille.html

Challenges In The Use Of Local Data For Regional Scale Mapping Of C And N Stocks In The Continuous Permafrost Zone At The Yukon Coastal Plain | Heatwave Risks To Tipping Point Of Permafrost
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https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-12-113-2026 <-- shared paper
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02603-2 <-- shared paper
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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/aug/20/tipping-points-heatwaves-wildfires-permafrost-climate-crisis <-- shared media article
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https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/permafrost-slumps-herschel-island-qikiqtaruk-yukon-9.7168780 <-- shared media article
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[putting together two different ‘sorts’/focuses of research/reporting, but…]
H/T @gustaf Hugelius | Professor at Stockholm University
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“Permafrost soils are particularly vulnerable to climate change. To assess and improve estimations of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) budgets it is necessary to accurately map soil carbon and nitrogen in the permafrost region. In particular, soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks have been predicted and mapped by many studies from local to pan-Arctic scales. Several studies have been carried out at the Canadian Beaufort Sea coast, though no regional maps of terrestrial carbon stocks based on spatial modelling has been conducted yet. This study combines available field data from the Canadian Yukon coastal plain and uses it to map regional SOC and N stocks using the machine learning algorithm random forest and environmental variables based on remote sensing data. [The authors] developed models using the data for the entire region and separate models for the coastal mainland area and Qikiqtaruk Herschel Island. Each model was used to map SOC and N stocks for its respective area. [They] assessed the performance of the different random forest models by using crossvalidation. [They] further assessed model results using the Area of Applicability (AOA) method and the quantile regression forest approach, comparing the results and discussing their implications within the context of both methods. [They] explore[d] local differences in soil properties and how soil data distribution across the region affects the accuracy of the predictions of SOC and N stocks..."
#permafrost #soils #geology #climatechange #temperature #thawing #melting #emissions #CO2 #methane #carbon #nitrogen #GIS #spatial #mapping #Qikiqtaruk #HerschelIsland #Yukon #Canada #soilorganiccarbon #SOC #arctic #cryosphere #BeaufortSea #coast #coastal #machinelearning #model #modeling #remotesensing #earthobservation #carbonstocks #island #mainland #spatialanalysis #scale

Tauender #Permafrost erhöht die Gefahr von #Bergstürzen in den Schweizer #Alpen.

Oberhalb von #Kandersteg könnten sich am Spitze Stei bis zu 20 Millionen Kubikmeter Gestein lösen. Eine unmittelbare Gefahr für das Dorf besteht derzeit nicht.

Der Berg wird kontinuierlich überwacht, Evakuierungspläne liegen vor. Steigende Temperaturen lassen #Permafrost und #Gletscher tauen und können dadurch Berghänge destabilisieren.

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/08/18/travel/swiss-village-rock-collapse-threat-intl

#Schweiz #Klimawandel #environment #climatechange

The threatening thaw: climate professor on heatwave risks to tipping point of permafrost https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/aug/20/tipping-points-heatwaves-wildfires-permafrost-climate-crisis #ManMadeClimateChange #permafrost #TippingPoint #BigOilKnew #ClimateChange

Another Swiss Village Faces Risk of an Alpine Collapse

It’s becoming an unfortunately familiar story in Switzerland: The village of Kandersteg, ringed by glaciers and green…
#NewsBeep #News #Headlines #Climatechange #landslide #permafrost #Switzerland #World
https://www.newsbeep.com/696562/

Refined Modeling of Arctic Circumpolar Building Stock Increases Estimated Mid-Century Permafrost Degradation Damages
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008578 <-- shared paper
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https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/climate-change-geopolitics-monitoring-thawing-permafrost/ | https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/dwindling-arctic-sea-ice-impacts-permafrost-health/ <-- shared technical articles
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https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/oct/14/thawing-permafrost-destroying-arctic-cities-norilsk-russia <-- shared media article
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https://news.grida.no/new-map-shows-extent-of-permafrost-in-northern-hemisphere <-- shared technical article
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H/T @elias Manos
“Why the increase?
Our understanding of climate risk is only as good as our understanding of our exposure to hazards. The better we can account for what is at risk, the better we can measure risk in a changing world.
In this new study [link above], [they] investigate[d] how damage to the building stock across the Arctic, a key impact of permafrost degradation, is underestimated because of underdeveloped exposure information. With National Science Foundation (NSF) supercomputers and 400 TB of Vantor satellite imagery, [they] detected building footprints across the Arctic and classified their use types using deep learning models. Then, using Polar Geospatial Center's ArcticDEM digital surface model, [they] estimated the total floor space of each residential building. This move from 2D to 3D representation of the building stock was the largest contributor to increased building damage.
Properly estimating this consequence is necessary for understanding the near future of the Arctic economy. Knowing the magnitude of damages is critical for sustaining the communities and livelihoods of more than 5 million people that call the Arctic home. There are also much broader implications. With the Arctic continuing to emerge as a strategic centerpiece in global affairs and the global economy, accurately quantifying the physical shocks to its built environment will allow researchers to more effectively represent the Arctic in global climate economic models. More precise international policymaking will also be enabled by these improvements.
Ultimately, this research highlights a similar challenge in completely different regions of the world (e.g., Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa) where exposure is constantly evolving alongside rapid population growth and urbanization. Building stock information can quickly become outdated as these changes occur; satellite remote sensing and AI are key players in keeping up with these changes and supporting data-driven disaster risk management…”
#arctic #circumpolar #permafrost #model #modeling #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #GIS #spatial #mapping #melting #degradation #damage #cost #economics #risk #hazard #climaterisk #climatechange #remotesensing #HPC #earthobservation #ArcticDEM #buildingfootprint #LLM #AI #machinelearning #engineering #economy #buildingstock #community #policy #planning #geopolitics #risk #management @UConn Research

Arctic Soil Awakening: A Fragmented Microbial Revival

New study shows only 50% of dormant Arctic soil microbes reanimate when permafrost thaws, impacting carbon release and global warming.

#ArcticThaw, #Permafrost, #MicrobialActivity, #ClimateChange, #CarbonRelease

https://newsletter.tf/arctic-permafrost-microbes-thaw-carbon-release/

A recent study found that only half of dormant Arctic soil microbes wake up when permafrost thaws. This is less than many scientists expected.

#ArcticThaw, #Permafrost, #MicrobialActivity, #ClimateChange, #CarbonRelease
https://newsletter.tf/arctic-permafrost-microbes-thaw-carbon-release/

RE: https://fediscience.org/@Ruth_Mottram/116250388094443741

For the morning team: We're looking for scientists excited to work at the cutting edge of Polar science with the latest high resolution climate models and Earth Observation data.
Funding support available for travel, accomodation + food costs covered

#Arctic #Antarctic #Polar #ClimateScience #ClimateModelling #EarthObservation #Climate #IceSheets #SeaIce #Permafrost

🎓 Congratulations to Constanze Reinken on successfully defending her #PhD! 👏

In her thesis, “A Stochastic Approach to Modelling Thermokarst Lake Dynamics,” Constanze investigated the behavior of #permafrost lakes. She developed a stochastic model based on the karst-like expansion, merging, & drainage of lakes, identifying multiple regimes that correspond to different geographical settings.

We’re proud of your achievement and wish you all the best for your next steps! ✨

#PhDDefense #imprs_ESM

🎓 Congratulations to Constanze Reinken on successfully defending her #PhD! 👏

In her thesis, “A Stochastic Approach to Modelling Thermokarst Lake Dynamics,” Constanze investigated the behavior of #permafrost lakes. She developed a stochastic model based on the karst-like expansion, merging, & drainage of lakes, identifying multiple regimes that correspond to different geographical settings.

We’re proud of your achievement and wish you all the best for your next steps! ✨

#PhDDefense #imprs_ESM

🎓 Congratulations to Constanze Reinken on successfully defending her #PhD! 👏

In her thesis, “A Stochastic Approach to Modelling Thermokarst Lake Dynamics,” Constanze investigated the behavior of #permafrost lakes. She developed a stochastic model based on the karst-like expansion, merging, & drainage of lakes, identifying multiple regimes that correspond to different geographical settings.

We’re proud of your achievement and wish you all the best for your next steps! ✨

#PhDDefense #imprs_ESM

🎓 Congratulations to Constanze Reinken on successfully defending her #PhD! 👏

In her thesis, “A Stochastic Approach to Modelling Thermokarst Lake Dynamics,” Constanze investigated the behavior of #permafrost lakes. She developed a stochastic model based on the karst-like expansion, merging, & drainage of lakes, identifying multiple regimes that correspond to different geographical settings.

We’re proud of your achievement and wish you all the best for your next steps! ✨

#PhDDefense #imprs_ESM

🎓 Congratulations to Constanze Reinken on successfully defending her #PhD! 👏

In her thesis, “A Stochastic Approach to Modelling Thermokarst Lake Dynamics,” Constanze investigated the behavior of #permafrost lakes. She developed a stochastic model based on the karst-like expansion, merging, & drainage of lakes, identifying multiple regimes that correspond to different geographical settings.

We’re proud of your achievement and wish you all the best for your next steps! ✨

#PhDDefense #imprs_ESM

Frozen No More - A Case Study Of Arctic Permafrost Impacts Of Oil And Gas Withdrawal
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-76292-2 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #remotesening #earthobservation #oil #gas #oilandgas #O&G #energy #extraction #drilling #exploration #subsurface #permafrost #melting #humanimpacts #climatechange #oilextraction #risk #hazard #riskassessment #water #hydrology #sediment #tundra #oilwellpads #NorthSlope #Alaska #arctic #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #remediation #drillpad #oilpad #lease #industry #habitat #ecosystem #fieldwork #sampling #geology #engineeringgeology #impact

Das Sterben der #kraniche: ein schöner Buchtitel?
Nein: eine #katastrophe - womöglich im Zusammenhang mit dem #klimawandel , der diese Vögel 🦅 schwächt und #pandemien stärkt?! Der Preis der Eier sollte unser geringstes Problem sein…
#permafrost #gesundheit #nahrung #Vogelgrippe #forschung #Zugvogel

https://sigmaearth.com/de/Arktische-Vogelbeobachter-f%C3%BChren-den-Kampf-gegen-Klimawandel-und-Vogelgrippe/

Kinematic Evolution Of A Large Paraglacial Landslide In The Barry Arm Fjord Of Alaska
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JF007119 <-- shared paper
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https://doi.org/10.5066/P9EUCGJQ <-- shared technical article
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https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalogMaps/mapping/ows/5fff561ed34e592d8671ee85?service=wms&request=getcapabilities&version=1.3.0 <-- shared web mapping service
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #massmovement #landslide #engineeringgeology #remotesensing #sitespecific #LiDAR #iFSAR #paraglacial #kinematics #mapping #monitoring #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #fedscience #risk #hazard #glacier #retreat #climatechange #Alaska #BarryArm #fjord #hazardassessment #tsunami #wave #BarryGlacier #change #sensors #fieldwork #surveillance #melting #permafrost #Whittier #geophysics #geology #Alaska #geomorphometry #deglaciating
@USGS

Rückkopplungen im #Kohlenstoffkreislauf – etwa durch tauenden #Permafrost – könnten selbst bei moderaten #Emissionen eine stärkere #Erderhitzung verursachen als bisher gedacht.

Eine Studie des #PIK betont, dass das 2-Grad-Ziel nur bei sehr niedrigen Emissionen und geringer #Klimasensitivität erreichbar bleibt. Langfristige Modelle machen deutlich, dass heutige Entscheidungen über Jahrhunderte wirken.

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/de/aktuelles/nachrichten/staerkere-erderhitzung-durch-rueckkopplungen-im-klima-und-kohlenstoff-kreislauf-moeglich

#Erderwärmung #Methan #Klimaszenarien #Emissionsreduktion

Permafrost Thaw Threatens Up To 3 Million People In The Arctic
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https://phys.org/news/2025-01-permafrost-threatens-million-people-arctic.html <-- shared technical article
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01883-w <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #arctic #climatechange #permafrost #thaw #communities #impacts #humanimpacts #infrastructure #risk #hazard #northernhemisphere #global #threat #Sweden #greenland #alaska #yukon #russia #canada #norway #landuse #melting #ecosystems #livelihoods #firstnation #indigenous #inhabitants #population #cost #economics #policymaking #planning #management #spatialanalysis #adapation #transportation #supplies #waterquality #watersecurity #foodsecurity #disease #contaminants #multifactor #analysis #MFA #social #culture #cultural #transdisciplinary #ground #temperature #physicalprocesses #consequences #mobility #supplies #biogeochemical #water #hydrology #engineeringgeology #erosion #ecosystem #FATE

Ontdekking van de eeuw: perfect bewaard wolharige neushoorn gevonden in siberische permafrost https://www.trendingtech.news/trending-news/2024/09/39057/ontdekking-van-de-eeuw-perfect-bewaard-wolharige-neushoorn-gevonden-in-siberische-permafrost #wolharige neushoorn #permafrost #Siberië #uitgestorven soorten #wetenschappelijke ontdekking #Trending #News #Nieuws

Tundra Vegetation To Grow Taller, Greener Through 2100, Nasa Study Finds
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https://landsat.gsfc.nasa.gov/article/tundra-vegetation-to-grow-taller-greener-through-2100-nasa-study-finds/ <-- shared technical article
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01454-z <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #model #modeling #climatechange #Alaska #Yukon Alaska #Canada #Scandinavia #Russia #boreal #borealforests #forests #vegetation #tundra #permafrost #remotesensing #satellite #ICESat2 #landsat #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #forecast #biome #landscape #canopy #transitional #canopycover #ABoVE #forest #hydrobasins #water #hydrology #taiga #canopyheight #cimp6 #SSP #bioclimate
@nasa

Thomsen River Estuary, Banks Island [NASA Earth Observatory Daily Image]
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https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/147560/thomsen-river-estuary-banks-island <-- link to NASA Earth Observatory image
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[photos in the main from 2015]
#GIS #spatial #mapping #remotesensing #OLI #hydrology #water #sediment #arctic #ocean #climatechange #ArcticOcean #landsat #landsat8 #BanksIsland #Aulavik #ice #snow #permafrost #tundra #Canada #ThomsenRiver #estuary #sedimentation #erosion #braiding #braided #hydrodynamics #geochemistry #geology #acidification
@nasa

Thomsen River Estuary, Banks Island [NASA Earth Observatory Daily Image]
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https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/147560/thomsen-river-estuary-banks-island <-- link to NASA Earth Observatory image
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[photos in the main from 2015]
#GIS #spatial #mapping #remotesensing #OLI #hydrology #water #sediment #arctic #ocean #climatechange #ArcticOcean #landsat #landsat8 #BanksIsland #Aulavik #ice #snow #permafrost #tundra #Canada #ThomsenRiver #estuary #sedimentation #erosion #braiding #braided #hydrodynamics #geochemistry #geology #acidification
@nasa

Thomsen River Estuary, Banks Island [NASA Earth Observatory Daily Image]
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https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/147560/thomsen-river-estuary-banks-island <-- link to NASA Earth Observatory image
--
[photos in the main from 2015]
#GIS #spatial #mapping #remotesensing #OLI #hydrology #water #sediment #arctic #ocean #climatechange #ArcticOcean #landsat #landsat8 #BanksIsland #Aulavik #ice #snow #permafrost #tundra #Canada #ThomsenRiver #estuary #sedimentation #erosion #braiding #braided #hydrodynamics #geochemistry #geology #acidification
@nasa

Thomsen River Estuary, Banks Island [NASA Earth Observatory Daily Image]
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https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/147560/thomsen-river-estuary-banks-island <-- link to NASA Earth Observatory image
--
[photos in the main from 2015]
#GIS #spatial #mapping #remotesensing #OLI #hydrology #water #sediment #arctic #ocean #climatechange #ArcticOcean #landsat #landsat8 #BanksIsland #Aulavik #ice #snow #permafrost #tundra #Canada #ThomsenRiver #estuary #sedimentation #erosion #braiding #braided #hydrodynamics #geochemistry #geology #acidification
@nasa

Thomsen River Estuary, Banks Island [NASA Earth Observatory Daily Image]
--
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/147560/thomsen-river-estuary-banks-island <-- link to NASA Earth Observatory image
--
[photos in the main from 2015]
#GIS #spatial #mapping #remotesensing #OLI #hydrology #water #sediment #arctic #ocean #climatechange #ArcticOcean #landsat #landsat8 #BanksIsland #Aulavik #ice #snow #permafrost #tundra #Canada #ThomsenRiver #estuary #sedimentation #erosion #braiding #braided #hydrodynamics #geochemistry #geology #acidification
@nasa

Sea of #methane sealed beneath #Arctic #permafrost could trigger climate feedback loop if it escapes

A sea of migrating methane discovered below the permafrost in Svalbard may eventually escape its icy prison if the permafrost continues to thaw due to #ClimateChange.

By Sascha Pare
published December 20, 2023

"Deep beneath the permafrost that blankets a group of islands in the #ArcticOcean lurks a growing and migrating sea of methane, researchers have discovered.

"The thick permafrost, or ground that remains frozen for at least two years, forms a tight seal that has so far prevented millions of cubic feet of methane from wafting out — but there's no guarantee that the potent greenhouse gas won't eventually escape, according to a study published Dec. 13 in the journal Frontiers in Earth Science.

"At present, the leakage from below permafrost is very low, but factors such as glacial retreat and permafrost thawing may 'lift the lid' on this in the future," lead author Thomas Birchall, a geologist at the University Center in Svalbard in Norway, said in a statement."

Read more:
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/arctic/sea-of-methane-sealed-beneath-arctic-permafrost-could-trigger-climate-feedback-loop-if-it-escapes

#MethaneLeaks #Methane #ArcticOcean #Norway #Svalsbad #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #GlobalWarming #Copernicus #GreenhouseGas #Collapse #MethaneBomb #ClimateFeedbackloop

A Massive #Methane Reservoir Is Lurking Beneath the Sea

Scientists have found a methane reservoir below the #permafrost seabed of the #LaptevSea—a reservoir that could suddenly release large amounts of the potent #GreenhouseGas

by Fanni Daniella Szakal
27 April 2021

"Methane bubbles regularly reach the surface of the Laptev Sea in the East #Siberian #ArcticOcean (#ESAO), each of them a small blow to our efforts to mitigate climate change. The source of the methane used to be a mystery, but a joint Swedish-Russian-U.S. investigation recently discovered that an ancient gas reservoir is responsible for the bubbly leaks.

"Methane in the Laptev Sea is stored in reservoirs below the sea’s submarine permafrost or in the form of methane hydrates—solid ice-like structures that trap the gas inside. It is also produced by microbes in the thawing permafrost itself. Not all of these sources are created equal: Whereas microbial methane is released in a slow, gradual process, disintegrating hydrates and reservoirs can lead to sudden, eruptive releases.

"Methane is escaping as the Laptev’s submarine permafrost is thawed by the relative warmth of overlying seawater.

"With an even stronger greenhouse effect than #CarbonDioxide, methane releases into the atmosphere could substantially amplify global warming."

Read more:
https://eos.org/articles/a-massive-methane-reservoir-is-lurking-beneath-the-sea

#MethaneLeaks #Methane #Arctic #Siberia #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #GlobalWarming #Copernicus #GreenhouseGas #Collapse

Scientists warn, #Arctic #methane is a ticking #climate timebomb

by Rizwan Choudhury, December 13, 2023

"Scientists have discovered that millions of cubic meters of methane, a potent #GreenhouseGas, are trapped beneath the #permafrost in #Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago in the #ArcticOcean. They have also found that this methane can migrate and escape through the permafrost's cold seal, creating a warming cycle that could lead to a massive increase in methane emissions and #ClimateChange.

"Permafrost is ground that remains frozen for at least two years. It covers about 15% of the Earth’s land surface and contains large amounts of organic matter that can release methane when thawed. Methane is 28 times more powerful than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas over 100 years.

Svalbard as cold storage

"#Svalbard has a long history of geological and glacial activity, making it similar to other parts of the Arctic region. The researchers used historical data from commercial and research wells to map the permafrost across Svalbard and identify areas where gas accumulations were present.

"They found that gas accumulations were much more common than expected. Of 18 hydrocarbon exploration wells drilled in #Svalbard, eight showed evidence of #permafrost and half of these struck gas accumulations.

"'All the wells that encountered gas accumulations did so by coincidence - by contrast, hydrocarbon exploration wells that specifically target accumulations in more typical settings had a success rate far below 50%,' said Dr Thomas Birchall of the University Center in Svalbard, lead author of the study published in Frontiers in Earth Science."

Read more:
https://interestingengineering.com/science/scientists-warn-arctic-methane-is-a-ticking-climate-timebomb

#ArcticMethane #MethaneLeaks #Norway #ClimateChange #GlobalWarming

#Arctic #permafrost, a vast store of ancient carbon, is crucial in understanding the global carbon cycle.

This study, sampling over 100 Alaskan streams, reveals how permafrost degradation, #geology to climate change, affects carbon and nutrient flows in surface waters, essential for predicting future Arctic carbon fluxes.

🔗🗓️ https://bit.ly/agu23121108

Add #Biogeochemical Effects of Permafrost Degradation to your #AGU23

#Arctic #permafrost, a vast store of ancient carbon, is crucial in understanding the global carbon cycle.

This study, sampling over 100 Alaskan streams, reveals how permafrost degradation, #geology to climate change, affects carbon and nutrient flows in surface waters, essential for predicting future Arctic carbon fluxes.

🔗🗓️ https://bit.ly/agu23121108

Add #Biogeochemical Effects of Permafrost Degradation to your #AGU23

Scientists woke up a 46,000-year-old #roundworm from Siberian #permafrost

https://wapo.st/3rSYNkA
#NoPaywall #GiftArticle

#Genome analysis of 46,000-year-old #roundworm from Siberian #permafrost reveals novel species.

#cryptobiosis #phylogenetic #nematode

https://phys.org/news/2023-07-genome-analysis-year-old-roundworm-siberian.html

27-Jul-2023
Genome analysis of 46,000-year-old #roundworm from Siberian #permafrost reveals novel species

International research team shows that a newly discovered nematode species from the Pleistocene share a molecular toolkit for survival with the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans

https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/996789

The important and slightly scary bit is that these worms are actually alive. #science #LifeOnTheEdge #ExtremeConditions #ecology

I am maths dyslexic and need #help

The update to the 2019 IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere https://iccinet.org/statecryo2022/ chapter 4 states that CO2e from permafrost at current policy scenario requires removal per century of 400Gt CO2.
(Yes, permafrost is officially thawing and it is officially now requiring CO2 removal.)

The report doesn't say but I assume they use the official GWP by UNEP, 25 over 100 years.

How do I back-calculate those 400Gt CO2e to see how much methane it is that's going to be released per decade?

My calculation ends in a crazy warming of 1.6ºC per decade from permafrost thaw. Can you point me to where my mistake is?

It goes like this:
400Gt CO2e / 25 = 16Gt? If true, then CH4 from permafrost per decade is 1.6Gt. If true, and if the OH-sink stays the same, it'd mean 1.6ºC warming each decade.

Why 1.6ºC/decade:
*because #AR6-WG1 states that 2010-2019, methane caused 0.51ºC warming.
*from the Global Methane Project's top down view, we know that ~600Mt were released/yr
* and from NOAA, we know that the concentration was Ø 1830ppb in that decade.

It follows that in the decade 2010-2019, with the particular capacity of the OH-sink in that decade, 1Mt CH4 emissions resulted in 3.111 ppb and 0.001 ºC.

If these conditions stay the same, and if my back-calculation is correct for CO2e==>CH4, then the scientists are saying we're going to make permafrost thaw release 1.6Gt CH4 per decade which results in an immediate warming of 1.6ºC / decade, and to the weather and social chaos from this warming.

But I reckon, I must have omitted a zero somewhere. 0.16ºC feels more logical to me. I just don't know where I went wrong.

#Help #MathsDyslexia
#CO2e #GWP #CH4 #Permafrost #SROC #OHSink