#permafrost — Public Fediverse posts

Refined Modeling of Arctic Circumpolar Building Stock Increases Estimated Mid-Century Permafrost Degradation Damages
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008578 <-- shared paper
--
https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/climate-change-geopolitics-monitoring-thawing-permafrost/ | https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/dwindling-arctic-sea-ice-impacts-permafrost-health/ <-- shared technical articles
--
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/oct/14/thawing-permafrost-destroying-arctic-cities-norilsk-russia <-- shared media article
--
https://news.grida.no/new-map-shows-extent-of-permafrost-in-northern-hemisphere <-- shared technical article
--
H/T @elias Manos
“Why the increase?
Our understanding of climate risk is only as good as our understanding of our exposure to hazards. The better we can account for what is at risk, the better we can measure risk in a changing world.
In this new study [link above], [they] investigate[d] how damage to the building stock across the Arctic, a key impact of permafrost degradation, is underestimated because of underdeveloped exposure information. With National Science Foundation (NSF) supercomputers and 400 TB of Vantor satellite imagery, [they] detected building footprints across the Arctic and classified their use types using deep learning models. Then, using Polar Geospatial Center's ArcticDEM digital surface model, [they] estimated the total floor space of each residential building. This move from 2D to 3D representation of the building stock was the largest contributor to increased building damage.
Properly estimating this consequence is necessary for understanding the near future of the Arctic economy. Knowing the magnitude of damages is critical for sustaining the communities and livelihoods of more than 5 million people that call the Arctic home. There are also much broader implications. With the Arctic continuing to emerge as a strategic centerpiece in global affairs and the global economy, accurately quantifying the physical shocks to its built environment will allow researchers to more effectively represent the Arctic in global climate economic models. More precise international policymaking will also be enabled by these improvements.
Ultimately, this research highlights a similar challenge in completely different regions of the world (e.g., Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa) where exposure is constantly evolving alongside rapid population growth and urbanization. Building stock information can quickly become outdated as these changes occur; satellite remote sensing and AI are key players in keeping up with these changes and supporting data-driven disaster risk management…”
#arctic #circumpolar #permafrost #model #modeling #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #GIS #spatial #mapping #melting #degradation #damage #cost #economics #risk #hazard #climaterisk #climatechange #remotesensing #HPC #earthobservation #ArcticDEM #buildingfootprint #LLM #AI #machinelearning #engineering #economy #buildingstock #community #policy #planning #geopolitics #risk #management @UConn Research

Refined Modeling of Arctic Circumpolar Building Stock Increases Estimated Mid-Century Permafrost Degradation Damages
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008578 <-- shared paper
--
https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/climate-change-geopolitics-monitoring-thawing-permafrost/ | https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/dwindling-arctic-sea-ice-impacts-permafrost-health/ <-- shared technical articles
--
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/oct/14/thawing-permafrost-destroying-arctic-cities-norilsk-russia <-- shared media article
--
https://news.grida.no/new-map-shows-extent-of-permafrost-in-northern-hemisphere <-- shared technical article
--
H/T @elias Manos
“Why the increase?
Our understanding of climate risk is only as good as our understanding of our exposure to hazards. The better we can account for what is at risk, the better we can measure risk in a changing world.
In this new study [link above], [they] investigate[d] how damage to the building stock across the Arctic, a key impact of permafrost degradation, is underestimated because of underdeveloped exposure information. With National Science Foundation (NSF) supercomputers and 400 TB of Vantor satellite imagery, [they] detected building footprints across the Arctic and classified their use types using deep learning models. Then, using Polar Geospatial Center's ArcticDEM digital surface model, [they] estimated the total floor space of each residential building. This move from 2D to 3D representation of the building stock was the largest contributor to increased building damage.
Properly estimating this consequence is necessary for understanding the near future of the Arctic economy. Knowing the magnitude of damages is critical for sustaining the communities and livelihoods of more than 5 million people that call the Arctic home. There are also much broader implications. With the Arctic continuing to emerge as a strategic centerpiece in global affairs and the global economy, accurately quantifying the physical shocks to its built environment will allow researchers to more effectively represent the Arctic in global climate economic models. More precise international policymaking will also be enabled by these improvements.
Ultimately, this research highlights a similar challenge in completely different regions of the world (e.g., Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa) where exposure is constantly evolving alongside rapid population growth and urbanization. Building stock information can quickly become outdated as these changes occur; satellite remote sensing and AI are key players in keeping up with these changes and supporting data-driven disaster risk management…”
#arctic #circumpolar #permafrost #model #modeling #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #GIS #spatial #mapping #melting #degradation #damage #cost #economics #risk #hazard #climaterisk #climatechange #remotesensing #HPC #earthobservation #ArcticDEM #buildingfootprint #LLM #AI #machinelearning #engineering #economy #buildingstock #community #policy #planning #geopolitics #risk #management @UConn Research

Refined Modeling of Arctic Circumpolar Building Stock Increases Estimated Mid-Century Permafrost Degradation Damages
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008578 <-- shared paper
--
https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/climate-change-geopolitics-monitoring-thawing-permafrost/ | https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/dwindling-arctic-sea-ice-impacts-permafrost-health/ <-- shared technical articles
--
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/oct/14/thawing-permafrost-destroying-arctic-cities-norilsk-russia <-- shared media article
--
https://news.grida.no/new-map-shows-extent-of-permafrost-in-northern-hemisphere <-- shared technical article
--
H/T @elias Manos
“Why the increase?
Our understanding of climate risk is only as good as our understanding of our exposure to hazards. The better we can account for what is at risk, the better we can measure risk in a changing world.
In this new study [link above], [they] investigate[d] how damage to the building stock across the Arctic, a key impact of permafrost degradation, is underestimated because of underdeveloped exposure information. With National Science Foundation (NSF) supercomputers and 400 TB of Vantor satellite imagery, [they] detected building footprints across the Arctic and classified their use types using deep learning models. Then, using Polar Geospatial Center's ArcticDEM digital surface model, [they] estimated the total floor space of each residential building. This move from 2D to 3D representation of the building stock was the largest contributor to increased building damage.
Properly estimating this consequence is necessary for understanding the near future of the Arctic economy. Knowing the magnitude of damages is critical for sustaining the communities and livelihoods of more than 5 million people that call the Arctic home. There are also much broader implications. With the Arctic continuing to emerge as a strategic centerpiece in global affairs and the global economy, accurately quantifying the physical shocks to its built environment will allow researchers to more effectively represent the Arctic in global climate economic models. More precise international policymaking will also be enabled by these improvements.
Ultimately, this research highlights a similar challenge in completely different regions of the world (e.g., Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa) where exposure is constantly evolving alongside rapid population growth and urbanization. Building stock information can quickly become outdated as these changes occur; satellite remote sensing and AI are key players in keeping up with these changes and supporting data-driven disaster risk management…”
#arctic #circumpolar #permafrost #model #modeling #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #GIS #spatial #mapping #melting #degradation #damage #cost #economics #risk #hazard #climaterisk #climatechange #remotesensing #HPC #earthobservation #ArcticDEM #buildingfootprint #LLM #AI #machinelearning #engineering #economy #buildingstock #community #policy #planning #geopolitics #risk #management @UConn Research

Refined Modeling of Arctic Circumpolar Building Stock Increases Estimated Mid-Century Permafrost Degradation Damages
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008578 <-- shared paper
--
https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/climate-change-geopolitics-monitoring-thawing-permafrost/ | https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/dwindling-arctic-sea-ice-impacts-permafrost-health/ <-- shared technical articles
--
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/oct/14/thawing-permafrost-destroying-arctic-cities-norilsk-russia <-- shared media article
--
https://news.grida.no/new-map-shows-extent-of-permafrost-in-northern-hemisphere <-- shared technical article
--
H/T @elias Manos
“Why the increase?
Our understanding of climate risk is only as good as our understanding of our exposure to hazards. The better we can account for what is at risk, the better we can measure risk in a changing world.
In this new study [link above], [they] investigate[d] how damage to the building stock across the Arctic, a key impact of permafrost degradation, is underestimated because of underdeveloped exposure information. With National Science Foundation (NSF) supercomputers and 400 TB of Vantor satellite imagery, [they] detected building footprints across the Arctic and classified their use types using deep learning models. Then, using Polar Geospatial Center's ArcticDEM digital surface model, [they] estimated the total floor space of each residential building. This move from 2D to 3D representation of the building stock was the largest contributor to increased building damage.
Properly estimating this consequence is necessary for understanding the near future of the Arctic economy. Knowing the magnitude of damages is critical for sustaining the communities and livelihoods of more than 5 million people that call the Arctic home. There are also much broader implications. With the Arctic continuing to emerge as a strategic centerpiece in global affairs and the global economy, accurately quantifying the physical shocks to its built environment will allow researchers to more effectively represent the Arctic in global climate economic models. More precise international policymaking will also be enabled by these improvements.
Ultimately, this research highlights a similar challenge in completely different regions of the world (e.g., Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa) where exposure is constantly evolving alongside rapid population growth and urbanization. Building stock information can quickly become outdated as these changes occur; satellite remote sensing and AI are key players in keeping up with these changes and supporting data-driven disaster risk management…”
#arctic #circumpolar #permafrost #model #modeling #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #GIS #spatial #mapping #melting #degradation #damage #cost #economics #risk #hazard #climaterisk #climatechange #remotesensing #HPC #earthobservation #ArcticDEM #buildingfootprint #LLM #AI #machinelearning #engineering #economy #buildingstock #community #policy #planning #geopolitics #risk #management @UConn Research

Refined Modeling of Arctic Circumpolar Building Stock Increases Estimated Mid-Century Permafrost Degradation Damages
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF008578 <-- shared paper
--
https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/climate-change-geopolitics-monitoring-thawing-permafrost/ | https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/dwindling-arctic-sea-ice-impacts-permafrost-health/ <-- shared technical articles
--
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/oct/14/thawing-permafrost-destroying-arctic-cities-norilsk-russia <-- shared media article
--
https://news.grida.no/new-map-shows-extent-of-permafrost-in-northern-hemisphere <-- shared technical article
--
H/T @elias Manos
“Why the increase?
Our understanding of climate risk is only as good as our understanding of our exposure to hazards. The better we can account for what is at risk, the better we can measure risk in a changing world.
In this new study [link above], [they] investigate[d] how damage to the building stock across the Arctic, a key impact of permafrost degradation, is underestimated because of underdeveloped exposure information. With National Science Foundation (NSF) supercomputers and 400 TB of Vantor satellite imagery, [they] detected building footprints across the Arctic and classified their use types using deep learning models. Then, using Polar Geospatial Center's ArcticDEM digital surface model, [they] estimated the total floor space of each residential building. This move from 2D to 3D representation of the building stock was the largest contributor to increased building damage.
Properly estimating this consequence is necessary for understanding the near future of the Arctic economy. Knowing the magnitude of damages is critical for sustaining the communities and livelihoods of more than 5 million people that call the Arctic home. There are also much broader implications. With the Arctic continuing to emerge as a strategic centerpiece in global affairs and the global economy, accurately quantifying the physical shocks to its built environment will allow researchers to more effectively represent the Arctic in global climate economic models. More precise international policymaking will also be enabled by these improvements.
Ultimately, this research highlights a similar challenge in completely different regions of the world (e.g., Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa) where exposure is constantly evolving alongside rapid population growth and urbanization. Building stock information can quickly become outdated as these changes occur; satellite remote sensing and AI are key players in keeping up with these changes and supporting data-driven disaster risk management…”
#arctic #circumpolar #permafrost #model #modeling #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #GIS #spatial #mapping #melting #degradation #damage #cost #economics #risk #hazard #climaterisk #climatechange #remotesensing #HPC #earthobservation #ArcticDEM #buildingfootprint #LLM #AI #machinelearning #engineering #economy #buildingstock #community #policy #planning #geopolitics #risk #management @UConn Research

En Sibérie, avec la fonte du pergélisol, d’étranges cratères apparaissent dans la toundra. Un phénomène alarmant dont les conséquences pour le #climat pourraient être dramatiques.
#nature #biodiversite #rechauffementclimatique #ecologie #science #scientifiques #documentaire #Arte
#artique #permafrost #pergélisol

Les gouffres béants de l'Arctique | Documentaire | ARTE - YouTube
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Mp2ItCbYmhU

En Sibérie, avec la fonte du pergélisol, d’étranges cratères apparaissent dans la toundra. Un phénomène alarmant dont les conséquences pour le #climat pourraient être dramatiques.
#nature #biodiversite #rechauffementclimatique #ecologie #science #scientifiques #documentaire #Arte
#artique #permafrost #pergélisol

Les gouffres béants de l'Arctique | Documentaire | ARTE - YouTube
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Mp2ItCbYmhU

En Sibérie, avec la fonte du pergélisol, d’étranges cratères apparaissent dans la toundra. Un phénomène alarmant dont les conséquences pour le #climat pourraient être dramatiques.
#nature #biodiversite #rechauffementclimatique #ecologie #science #scientifiques #documentaire #Arte
#artique #permafrost #pergélisol

Les gouffres béants de l'Arctique | Documentaire | ARTE - YouTube
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Mp2ItCbYmhU

En Sibérie, avec la fonte du pergélisol, d’étranges cratères apparaissent dans la toundra. Un phénomène alarmant dont les conséquences pour le #climat pourraient être dramatiques.
#nature #biodiversite #rechauffementclimatique #ecologie #science #scientifiques #documentaire #Arte
#artique #permafrost #pergélisol

Les gouffres béants de l'Arctique | Documentaire | ARTE - YouTube
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Mp2ItCbYmhU

En Sibérie, avec la fonte du pergélisol, d’étranges cratères apparaissent dans la toundra. Un phénomène alarmant dont les conséquences pour le #climat pourraient être dramatiques.
#nature #biodiversite #rechauffementclimatique #ecologie #science #scientifiques #documentaire #Arte
#artique #permafrost #pergélisol

Les gouffres béants de l'Arctique | Documentaire | ARTE - YouTube
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Mp2ItCbYmhU

Rail: A High Speed Adventure is now officially available as an ebook in Canada!

This eco‑fiction novel grew out of years of work in architecture, infrastructure, climate research, and storytelling. I’m excited to finally share it with Canadian readers.

Paperback pre‑sales will be opening soon.
Amazon link: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0H85946VT
Note: if the Kindle link doesn’t load in Chrome, try another browser — Amazon.ca is still updating the listing.

Thanks for following along on this long creative journey.

#Arctic #ArcticFiction #Architecture #CanadianAuthor #ClimateFiction #CreativeWriting #EcoFiction #HighSpeedRail #Hokkaido #IndieAuthor #IndiePublisher #Japan #NYC #Permafrost #ScribesAndMakers #Sustainability #Svalbard #WomenInArchitecture #WomenInSTEM #WomenInSTEAM

Rail: A High Speed Adventure is now officially available as an ebook in Canada!

This eco‑fiction novel grew out of years of work in architecture, infrastructure, climate research, and storytelling. I’m excited to finally share it with Canadian readers.

Paperback pre‑sales will be opening soon.
Amazon link: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0H85946VT
Note: if the Kindle link doesn’t load in Chrome, try another browser — Amazon.ca is still updating the listing.

Thanks for following along on this long creative journey.

#Arctic #ArcticFiction #Architecture #CanadianAuthor #ClimateFiction #CreativeWriting #EcoFiction #HighSpeedRail #Hokkaido #IndieAuthor #IndiePublisher #Japan #NYC #Permafrost #ScribesAndMakers #Sustainability #Svalbard #WomenInArchitecture #WomenInSTEM #WomenInSTEAM

Rail: A High Speed Adventure is now officially available as an ebook in Canada!

This eco‑fiction novel grew out of years of work in architecture, infrastructure, climate research, and storytelling. I’m excited to finally share it with Canadian readers.

Paperback pre‑sales will be opening soon.
Amazon link: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0H85946VT
Note: if the Kindle link doesn’t load in Chrome, try another browser — Amazon.ca is still updating the listing.

Thanks for following along on this long creative journey.

#Arctic #ArcticFiction #Architecture #CanadianAuthor #ClimateFiction #CreativeWriting #EcoFiction #HighSpeedRail #Hokkaido #IndieAuthor #IndiePublisher #Japan #NYC #Permafrost #ScribesAndMakers #Sustainability #Svalbard #WomenInArchitecture #WomenInSTEM #WomenInSTEAM

Rail: A High Speed Adventure is now officially available as an ebook in Canada!

This eco‑fiction novel grew out of years of work in architecture, infrastructure, climate research, and storytelling. I’m excited to finally share it with Canadian readers.

Paperback pre‑sales will be opening soon.
Amazon link: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0H85946VT
Note: if the Kindle link doesn’t load in Chrome, try another browser — Amazon.ca is still updating the listing.

Thanks for following along on this long creative journey.

#Arctic #ArcticFiction #Architecture #CanadianAuthor #ClimateFiction #CreativeWriting #EcoFiction #HighSpeedRail #Hokkaido #IndieAuthor #IndiePublisher #Japan #NYC #Permafrost #ScribesAndMakers #Sustainability #Svalbard #WomenInArchitecture #WomenInSTEM #WomenInSTEAM

Rail: A High Speed Adventure is now officially available as an ebook in Canada!

This eco‑fiction novel grew out of years of work in architecture, infrastructure, climate research, and storytelling. I’m excited to finally share it with Canadian readers.

Paperback pre‑sales will be opening soon.
Amazon link: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0H85946VT
Note: if the Kindle link doesn’t load in Chrome, try another browser — Amazon.ca is still updating the listing.

Thanks for following along on this long creative journey.

#Arctic #ArcticFiction #Architecture #CanadianAuthor #ClimateFiction #CreativeWriting #EcoFiction #HighSpeedRail #Hokkaido #IndieAuthor #IndiePublisher #Japan #NYC #Permafrost #ScribesAndMakers #Sustainability #Svalbard #WomenInArchitecture #WomenInSTEM #WomenInSTEAM

@svenscholz

Doch, Sven, das geht. Wir müssen nur alle #Sümpfe trockenlegen und das #Methan abfangen. Kann ja nicht so schwer sein. Der #Permafrost ist eh schon am abtauen. Einfach ein paar Kuppeln drüber und eine Absauganlage dran.

(Ich hoffe, das das als Satire erkennbar ist)

@svenscholz

Doch, Sven, das geht. Wir müssen nur alle #Sümpfe trockenlegen und das #Methan abfangen. Kann ja nicht so schwer sein. Der #Permafrost ist eh schon am abtauen. Einfach ein paar Kuppeln drüber und eine Absauganlage dran.

(Ich hoffe, das das als Satire erkennbar ist)

"The permeability of permafrost as it thaws and refreezes is unknown. […] These initial results indicate that the protective gas seal previously provided by permafrost will be lost as permafrost thaws."

Glover et al. (2026). https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007232

#Artic #climate #climateChange #globalWarming #permafrost #emissions #carbon #feedback

"The permeability of permafrost as it thaws and refreezes is unknown. […] These initial results indicate that the protective gas seal previously provided by permafrost will be lost as permafrost thaws."

Glover et al. (2026). https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007232

#Artic #climate #climateChange #globalWarming #permafrost #emissions #carbon #feedback

"The permeability of permafrost as it thaws and refreezes is unknown. […] These initial results indicate that the protective gas seal previously provided by permafrost will be lost as permafrost thaws."

Glover et al. (2026). https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007232

#Artic #climate #climateChange #globalWarming #permafrost #emissions #carbon #feedback

"The permeability of permafrost as it thaws and refreezes is unknown. […] These initial results indicate that the protective gas seal previously provided by permafrost will be lost as permafrost thaws."

Glover et al. (2026). https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007232

#Artic #climate #climateChange #globalWarming #permafrost #emissions #carbon #feedback

"The permeability of permafrost as it thaws and refreezes is unknown. […] These initial results indicate that the protective gas seal previously provided by permafrost will be lost as permafrost thaws."

Glover et al. (2026). https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007232

#Artic #climate #climateChange #globalWarming #permafrost #emissions #carbon #feedback

Feedback of global warming:

"We treat each WIE source independently and do not account for interactions between them, such as permafrost thaw expanding wetland extent through thermokarst formation, or the recursive effect where WIE-induced warming itself drives further WIE".

"For CO2, which accumulates in the atmosphere, a sustained emission rate produces a radiative forcing that increases over time, so the cumulative impact on carbon budgets depends on the duration of elevated temperature, not just the magnitude of warming. When we evaluate our permafrost CO2 results to compare with the AR6 framework, we find that the correction terms are 60, 123, and 138 Pg CO2 ℃⁻¹ for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP4-6.0, respectively".

excerpt from Sam Abernethy et al. (2026). https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15002332/v1

#climateChange #globalWarming #permafrost #emissions #carbon #wildfires #wetlands #methane #CO2

Feedback of global warming:

"We treat each WIE source independently and do not account for interactions between them, such as permafrost thaw expanding wetland extent through thermokarst formation, or the recursive effect where WIE-induced warming itself drives further WIE".

"For CO2, which accumulates in the atmosphere, a sustained emission rate produces a radiative forcing that increases over time, so the cumulative impact on carbon budgets depends on the duration of elevated temperature, not just the magnitude of warming. When we evaluate our permafrost CO2 results to compare with the AR6 framework, we find that the correction terms are 60, 123, and 138 Pg CO2 ℃⁻¹ for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP4-6.0, respectively".

excerpt from Sam Abernethy et al. (2026). https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15002332/v1

#climateChange #globalWarming #permafrost #emissions #carbon #wildfires #wetlands #methane #CO2

You Did What?!

The Hole We Can’t Fix

By Cliff Potts, CSO, and Editor-in-Chief of WPS News
Baybay City, Leyte, Philippines — June 24 , 2026

What Is Happening

In northeastern Siberia, a massive permafrost collapse known as the Batagaika crater continues to expand as warming temperatures thaw previously frozen ground. The formation, sometimes referred to as a “mega-slump,” is the largest of its kind currently observed.

The process is driven by thermokarst activity: once ice-rich permafrost begins to thaw, the ground loses structural integrity, collapses, and exposes deeper layers to further warming. This creates a feedback loop in which collapse accelerates additional thaw.

Why It Matters

The crater is not simply a geological curiosity. Permafrost contains large amounts of ancient organic material. As it thaws, that material decomposes and releases carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere.

This contributes to a broader climate feedback cycle:

• Thawing permafrost releases greenhouse gases
• Greenhouse gases increase global temperatures
• Higher temperatures accelerate further thaw

The visible collapse in Siberia is therefore part of a larger system that extends beyond the region itself.

What It Reveals

At the same time, the collapse is exposing layers of soil, plant material, and animal remains that have been preserved for tens of thousands to more than 200,000 years.

These layers provide direct access to:

• Past climate conditions
• Ancient ecosystems
• Long-term environmental change

Under normal circumstances, this information would remain buried and inaccessible. The current exposure creates a rare opportunity for scientific study.

A Global Opportunity

The site raises a practical question: how should the scientific community respond?

Research in such environments is already conducted through international collaboration. Scientists from multiple countries contribute expertise in geology, paleontology, climate science, and environmental analysis.

Access to the site is limited by geography, safety concerns, and national jurisdiction. However, the knowledge gained is global in value, not local.

The situation suggests a need for coordinated study rather than isolated effort.

The Balance

There is a tension in how to interpret what is happening.

The cause of the collapse—rapid warming and permafrost thaw—is destabilizing and carries long-term consequences. At the same time, the exposure of ancient material provides valuable insight into Earth’s past.

Both conditions exist simultaneously.

This is not a case of a beneficial discovery. It is a case of a damaging process that produces useful information.

Perspective

The expansion of the Batagaika crater is measurable, ongoing, and difficult to reverse at a local level. Once initiated, the thaw-collapse cycle tends to continue as long as environmental conditions support it.

That makes the site less a singular event and more a visible indicator of a broader trend.

Similar processes are expected to occur in other permafrost regions as warming continues.

Conclusion

The ground in Siberia is opening, exposing a long record of Earth’s environmental history while also releasing carbon that contributes to further change.

The situation presents a choice: treat it only as a warning, or also as a source of knowledge.

When conditions cannot be immediately reversed, understanding them becomes part of the response.

When life hands you lemons, around here you make calamansi and squeeze it over the barbecue.

If you read this and it matters, help me keep it going: https://www.patreon.com/cw/WPSNews

For more social commentary, please see Occupy 2.5 at https://Occupy25.com

References

General synthesis based on current scientific understanding of permafrost thaw, thermokarst processes, and Arctic climate dynamics, including publicly available reporting and research summaries on the Batagaika crater.

You Did What?!

The Hole We Can’t Fix

By Cliff Potts, CSO, and Editor-in-Chief of WPS News
Baybay City, Leyte, Philippines — June 24 , 2026

What Is Happening

In northeastern Siberia, a massive permafrost collapse known as the Batagaika crater continues to expand as warming temperatures thaw previously frozen ground. The formation, sometimes referred to as a “mega-slump,” is the largest of its kind currently observed.

The process is driven by thermokarst activity: once ice-rich permafrost begins to thaw, the ground loses structural integrity, collapses, and exposes deeper layers to further warming. This creates a feedback loop in which collapse accelerates additional thaw.

Why It Matters

The crater is not simply a geological curiosity. Permafrost contains large amounts of ancient organic material. As it thaws, that material decomposes and releases carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere.

This contributes to a broader climate feedback cycle:

• Thawing permafrost releases greenhouse gases
• Greenhouse gases increase global temperatures
• Higher temperatures accelerate further thaw

The visible collapse in Siberia is therefore part of a larger system that extends beyond the region itself.

What It Reveals

At the same time, the collapse is exposing layers of soil, plant material, and animal remains that have been preserved for tens of thousands to more than 200,000 years.

These layers provide direct access to:

• Past climate conditions
• Ancient ecosystems
• Long-term environmental change

Under normal circumstances, this information would remain buried and inaccessible. The current exposure creates a rare opportunity for scientific study.

A Global Opportunity

The site raises a practical question: how should the scientific community respond?

Research in such environments is already conducted through international collaboration. Scientists from multiple countries contribute expertise in geology, paleontology, climate science, and environmental analysis.

Access to the site is limited by geography, safety concerns, and national jurisdiction. However, the knowledge gained is global in value, not local.

The situation suggests a need for coordinated study rather than isolated effort.

The Balance

There is a tension in how to interpret what is happening.

The cause of the collapse—rapid warming and permafrost thaw—is destabilizing and carries long-term consequences. At the same time, the exposure of ancient material provides valuable insight into Earth’s past.

Both conditions exist simultaneously.

This is not a case of a beneficial discovery. It is a case of a damaging process that produces useful information.

Perspective

The expansion of the Batagaika crater is measurable, ongoing, and difficult to reverse at a local level. Once initiated, the thaw-collapse cycle tends to continue as long as environmental conditions support it.

That makes the site less a singular event and more a visible indicator of a broader trend.

Similar processes are expected to occur in other permafrost regions as warming continues.

Conclusion

The ground in Siberia is opening, exposing a long record of Earth’s environmental history while also releasing carbon that contributes to further change.

The situation presents a choice: treat it only as a warning, or also as a source of knowledge.

When conditions cannot be immediately reversed, understanding them becomes part of the response.

When life hands you lemons, around here you make calamansi and squeeze it over the barbecue.

If you read this and it matters, help me keep it going: https://www.patreon.com/cw/WPSNews

For more social commentary, please see Occupy 2.5 at https://Occupy25.com

References

General synthesis based on current scientific understanding of permafrost thaw, thermokarst processes, and Arctic climate dynamics, including publicly available reporting and research summaries on the Batagaika crater.

Rock Weathering Can Counteract River CO2 Emissions Induced By Permafrost Thaw
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10664-8 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @aaron Bufe
“[The researchers] measured carbon emissions and water chemistry in 50 headwater rivers draining 780,000 km² of the Tibetan Plateau.
The rivers flow in landscapes underlain by continuous permafrost and landscapes in which the permafrost has retreated since the last glacial maximum. They collect[ed] organic carbon from soils and dissolved inorganic carbon that is fixed by rock-weathering.
Where the permafrost cover is continuous, rivers emit CO2 from degrading (permafrost) soil carbon. Weathering reactions in these catchments are relatively slow.
In landscapes with (almost) no permafrost, carbon fluxes from weathering are faster than CO2 emissions from rivers.
Thus, as permafrost landscapes transition to landscapes without permafrost cover, chemical weathering reactions may play an ever more important role in riverine carbon cycling.
Interestingly, weathering can affect the carbon cycle in different ways. Where sulfide minerals are present, weathering reactions can emit CO2. Where silicate minerals dominate, weathering draws down CO2 from the atmosphere…”
--
“Climate-induced permafrost thaw unlocks large stores of organic carbon that are mineralized and emitted as carbon dioxide (CO2) from rivers to the atmosphere. Concurrently, warming and permafrost thaw can increase mineral weathering rates, thus affecting the release and sequestration of inorganic carbon. Yet how these biological and geological carbon cycles interact and jointly affect CO2 dynamics (emission compared with drawdown) in permafrost rivers remains unknown. Here [they] combine[d] CO2 emissions, organic and inorganic solute concentrations, dual carbon isotopes (δ13C–Δ14C) and geochemical modelling to infer how permafrost thaw may affect river biogeochemistry over decades to centuries across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Leveraging a gradient of thermal permafrost degradation, we find that river CO2 emissions decline, whereas solute fluxes from rock weathering increase with decreasing permafrost cover. Across this region, net CO2 drawdown fluxes from rock weathering are about 35% of river CO2 emissions, varying from around 15% in catchments with continuous permafrost to more than 100% in catchments with discontinuous or isolated permafrost. Thus, carbon fluxes from chemical weathering may become increasingly important with ongoing permafrost thaw, potentially even outpacing river CO2 emissions. [Their] findings disentangle the interplay between biological and geological carbon fluxes that are important for the cryosphere and the global carbon cycle…”
#permafrost #melting #thaw #climatechange #warming #Tibet #TibetanPlateau #Qinghai #water #hydrology #carbonemissions #CO2 #emissions #waterchemistry #waterquality #cryosphere #sediment #sedimentation #weathering #rock #carbon #river #riverine #carboncyling #geochemistry #biology #geology #soil

Rock Weathering Can Counteract River CO2 Emissions Induced By Permafrost Thaw
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10664-8 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @aaron Bufe
“[The researchers] measured carbon emissions and water chemistry in 50 headwater rivers draining 780,000 km² of the Tibetan Plateau.
The rivers flow in landscapes underlain by continuous permafrost and landscapes in which the permafrost has retreated since the last glacial maximum. They collect[ed] organic carbon from soils and dissolved inorganic carbon that is fixed by rock-weathering.
Where the permafrost cover is continuous, rivers emit CO2 from degrading (permafrost) soil carbon. Weathering reactions in these catchments are relatively slow.
In landscapes with (almost) no permafrost, carbon fluxes from weathering are faster than CO2 emissions from rivers.
Thus, as permafrost landscapes transition to landscapes without permafrost cover, chemical weathering reactions may play an ever more important role in riverine carbon cycling.
Interestingly, weathering can affect the carbon cycle in different ways. Where sulfide minerals are present, weathering reactions can emit CO2. Where silicate minerals dominate, weathering draws down CO2 from the atmosphere…”
--
“Climate-induced permafrost thaw unlocks large stores of organic carbon that are mineralized and emitted as carbon dioxide (CO2) from rivers to the atmosphere. Concurrently, warming and permafrost thaw can increase mineral weathering rates, thus affecting the release and sequestration of inorganic carbon. Yet how these biological and geological carbon cycles interact and jointly affect CO2 dynamics (emission compared with drawdown) in permafrost rivers remains unknown. Here [they] combine[d] CO2 emissions, organic and inorganic solute concentrations, dual carbon isotopes (δ13C–Δ14C) and geochemical modelling to infer how permafrost thaw may affect river biogeochemistry over decades to centuries across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Leveraging a gradient of thermal permafrost degradation, we find that river CO2 emissions decline, whereas solute fluxes from rock weathering increase with decreasing permafrost cover. Across this region, net CO2 drawdown fluxes from rock weathering are about 35% of river CO2 emissions, varying from around 15% in catchments with continuous permafrost to more than 100% in catchments with discontinuous or isolated permafrost. Thus, carbon fluxes from chemical weathering may become increasingly important with ongoing permafrost thaw, potentially even outpacing river CO2 emissions. [Their] findings disentangle the interplay between biological and geological carbon fluxes that are important for the cryosphere and the global carbon cycle…”
#permafrost #melting #thaw #climatechange #warming #Tibet #TibetanPlateau #Qinghai #water #hydrology #carbonemissions #CO2 #emissions #waterchemistry #waterquality #cryosphere #sediment #sedimentation #weathering #rock #carbon #river #riverine #carboncyling #geochemistry #biology #geology #soil

Rock Weathering Can Counteract River CO2 Emissions Induced By Permafrost Thaw
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10664-8 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @aaron Bufe
“[The researchers] measured carbon emissions and water chemistry in 50 headwater rivers draining 780,000 km² of the Tibetan Plateau.
The rivers flow in landscapes underlain by continuous permafrost and landscapes in which the permafrost has retreated since the last glacial maximum. They collect[ed] organic carbon from soils and dissolved inorganic carbon that is fixed by rock-weathering.
Where the permafrost cover is continuous, rivers emit CO2 from degrading (permafrost) soil carbon. Weathering reactions in these catchments are relatively slow.
In landscapes with (almost) no permafrost, carbon fluxes from weathering are faster than CO2 emissions from rivers.
Thus, as permafrost landscapes transition to landscapes without permafrost cover, chemical weathering reactions may play an ever more important role in riverine carbon cycling.
Interestingly, weathering can affect the carbon cycle in different ways. Where sulfide minerals are present, weathering reactions can emit CO2. Where silicate minerals dominate, weathering draws down CO2 from the atmosphere…”
--
“Climate-induced permafrost thaw unlocks large stores of organic carbon that are mineralized and emitted as carbon dioxide (CO2) from rivers to the atmosphere. Concurrently, warming and permafrost thaw can increase mineral weathering rates, thus affecting the release and sequestration of inorganic carbon. Yet how these biological and geological carbon cycles interact and jointly affect CO2 dynamics (emission compared with drawdown) in permafrost rivers remains unknown. Here [they] combine[d] CO2 emissions, organic and inorganic solute concentrations, dual carbon isotopes (δ13C–Δ14C) and geochemical modelling to infer how permafrost thaw may affect river biogeochemistry over decades to centuries across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Leveraging a gradient of thermal permafrost degradation, we find that river CO2 emissions decline, whereas solute fluxes from rock weathering increase with decreasing permafrost cover. Across this region, net CO2 drawdown fluxes from rock weathering are about 35% of river CO2 emissions, varying from around 15% in catchments with continuous permafrost to more than 100% in catchments with discontinuous or isolated permafrost. Thus, carbon fluxes from chemical weathering may become increasingly important with ongoing permafrost thaw, potentially even outpacing river CO2 emissions. [Their] findings disentangle the interplay between biological and geological carbon fluxes that are important for the cryosphere and the global carbon cycle…”
#permafrost #melting #thaw #climatechange #warming #Tibet #TibetanPlateau #Qinghai #water #hydrology #carbonemissions #CO2 #emissions #waterchemistry #waterquality #cryosphere #sediment #sedimentation #weathering #rock #carbon #river #riverine #carboncyling #geochemistry #biology #geology #soil

Rock Weathering Can Counteract River CO2 Emissions Induced By Permafrost Thaw
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10664-8 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @aaron Bufe
“[The researchers] measured carbon emissions and water chemistry in 50 headwater rivers draining 780,000 km² of the Tibetan Plateau.
The rivers flow in landscapes underlain by continuous permafrost and landscapes in which the permafrost has retreated since the last glacial maximum. They collect[ed] organic carbon from soils and dissolved inorganic carbon that is fixed by rock-weathering.
Where the permafrost cover is continuous, rivers emit CO2 from degrading (permafrost) soil carbon. Weathering reactions in these catchments are relatively slow.
In landscapes with (almost) no permafrost, carbon fluxes from weathering are faster than CO2 emissions from rivers.
Thus, as permafrost landscapes transition to landscapes without permafrost cover, chemical weathering reactions may play an ever more important role in riverine carbon cycling.
Interestingly, weathering can affect the carbon cycle in different ways. Where sulfide minerals are present, weathering reactions can emit CO2. Where silicate minerals dominate, weathering draws down CO2 from the atmosphere…”
--
“Climate-induced permafrost thaw unlocks large stores of organic carbon that are mineralized and emitted as carbon dioxide (CO2) from rivers to the atmosphere. Concurrently, warming and permafrost thaw can increase mineral weathering rates, thus affecting the release and sequestration of inorganic carbon. Yet how these biological and geological carbon cycles interact and jointly affect CO2 dynamics (emission compared with drawdown) in permafrost rivers remains unknown. Here [they] combine[d] CO2 emissions, organic and inorganic solute concentrations, dual carbon isotopes (δ13C–Δ14C) and geochemical modelling to infer how permafrost thaw may affect river biogeochemistry over decades to centuries across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Leveraging a gradient of thermal permafrost degradation, we find that river CO2 emissions decline, whereas solute fluxes from rock weathering increase with decreasing permafrost cover. Across this region, net CO2 drawdown fluxes from rock weathering are about 35% of river CO2 emissions, varying from around 15% in catchments with continuous permafrost to more than 100% in catchments with discontinuous or isolated permafrost. Thus, carbon fluxes from chemical weathering may become increasingly important with ongoing permafrost thaw, potentially even outpacing river CO2 emissions. [Their] findings disentangle the interplay between biological and geological carbon fluxes that are important for the cryosphere and the global carbon cycle…”
#permafrost #melting #thaw #climatechange #warming #Tibet #TibetanPlateau #Qinghai #water #hydrology #carbonemissions #CO2 #emissions #waterchemistry #waterquality #cryosphere #sediment #sedimentation #weathering #rock #carbon #river #riverine #carboncyling #geochemistry #biology #geology #soil

Rock Weathering Can Counteract River CO2 Emissions Induced By Permafrost Thaw
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10664-8 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @aaron Bufe
“[The researchers] measured carbon emissions and water chemistry in 50 headwater rivers draining 780,000 km² of the Tibetan Plateau.
The rivers flow in landscapes underlain by continuous permafrost and landscapes in which the permafrost has retreated since the last glacial maximum. They collect[ed] organic carbon from soils and dissolved inorganic carbon that is fixed by rock-weathering.
Where the permafrost cover is continuous, rivers emit CO2 from degrading (permafrost) soil carbon. Weathering reactions in these catchments are relatively slow.
In landscapes with (almost) no permafrost, carbon fluxes from weathering are faster than CO2 emissions from rivers.
Thus, as permafrost landscapes transition to landscapes without permafrost cover, chemical weathering reactions may play an ever more important role in riverine carbon cycling.
Interestingly, weathering can affect the carbon cycle in different ways. Where sulfide minerals are present, weathering reactions can emit CO2. Where silicate minerals dominate, weathering draws down CO2 from the atmosphere…”
--
“Climate-induced permafrost thaw unlocks large stores of organic carbon that are mineralized and emitted as carbon dioxide (CO2) from rivers to the atmosphere. Concurrently, warming and permafrost thaw can increase mineral weathering rates, thus affecting the release and sequestration of inorganic carbon. Yet how these biological and geological carbon cycles interact and jointly affect CO2 dynamics (emission compared with drawdown) in permafrost rivers remains unknown. Here [they] combine[d] CO2 emissions, organic and inorganic solute concentrations, dual carbon isotopes (δ13C–Δ14C) and geochemical modelling to infer how permafrost thaw may affect river biogeochemistry over decades to centuries across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Leveraging a gradient of thermal permafrost degradation, we find that river CO2 emissions decline, whereas solute fluxes from rock weathering increase with decreasing permafrost cover. Across this region, net CO2 drawdown fluxes from rock weathering are about 35% of river CO2 emissions, varying from around 15% in catchments with continuous permafrost to more than 100% in catchments with discontinuous or isolated permafrost. Thus, carbon fluxes from chemical weathering may become increasingly important with ongoing permafrost thaw, potentially even outpacing river CO2 emissions. [Their] findings disentangle the interplay between biological and geological carbon fluxes that are important for the cryosphere and the global carbon cycle…”
#permafrost #melting #thaw #climatechange #warming #Tibet #TibetanPlateau #Qinghai #water #hydrology #carbonemissions #CO2 #emissions #waterchemistry #waterquality #cryosphere #sediment #sedimentation #weathering #rock #carbon #river #riverine #carboncyling #geochemistry #biology #geology #soil

Permafrost Distribution, Degradation, And Potential Mass Movement Cascades In The Western Himalaya Using Machine Learning And Numerical Models
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00217-4 <-- shared paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-22051-w <-- shared (earlier) paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2025.2488532 <-- shared (earlier) paper
--
H/T @abhinav Alangadan
“Can we develop a first-order understanding of permafrost degradation and glacial lakes exposed to degradation-induced mass movements in the Himalaya?
[The authors] tried to address this question. The study [first link above] integrates machine learning, statistical modeling, and numerical modeling to investigate high-resolution permafrost distribution, potential degradation, and associated mass-movement hazards in the Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh, India.
Using rock glaciers as proxies, [they] generated a high-resolution permafrost distribution using machine learning, while potential degradation zones were delineated using the 0°C isotherm as a first-order indicator. [They] further identified glacial lakes located near potentially degrading permafrost zones and reconstructed their bathymetry. A detailed scenario-based GLOF process-chain simulation was then carried out for Kashang Lake using r.avaflow and HEC-RAS.
[Their] results indicate that seven glacial lakes in #Kinnaur are located close to potentially degrading permafrost zones. The simulations further show that a potential GLOF from Kashang Lake could inundate critical downstream infrastructure, including nearly 11 km of National Highway 5…”
#permafrost #distribution #GIS #spatial #mapping #Himalayas #India #Kinnaur #HimachalPradesh #KashangLake #massmovement #engineeringgeology #machinelearning #AI #model #modeling #numericalmodel #glaciallakes #glaciet #glacial #glaciallakeoutburstflood #GLOF #cryosphere #geostatistics #rockglaciers #GeoAI #bathymetry #processchainsimulation #HECRAS #avaflow #risk #hazard #mitigation #riskassessment #infrastructure #HEP #publicsafety #downstream #avalanche

Permafrost Distribution, Degradation, And Potential Mass Movement Cascades In The Western Himalaya Using Machine Learning And Numerical Models
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00217-4 <-- shared paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-22051-w <-- shared (earlier) paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2025.2488532 <-- shared (earlier) paper
--
H/T @abhinav Alangadan
“Can we develop a first-order understanding of permafrost degradation and glacial lakes exposed to degradation-induced mass movements in the Himalaya?
[The authors] tried to address this question. The study [first link above] integrates machine learning, statistical modeling, and numerical modeling to investigate high-resolution permafrost distribution, potential degradation, and associated mass-movement hazards in the Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh, India.
Using rock glaciers as proxies, [they] generated a high-resolution permafrost distribution using machine learning, while potential degradation zones were delineated using the 0°C isotherm as a first-order indicator. [They] further identified glacial lakes located near potentially degrading permafrost zones and reconstructed their bathymetry. A detailed scenario-based GLOF process-chain simulation was then carried out for Kashang Lake using r.avaflow and HEC-RAS.
[Their] results indicate that seven glacial lakes in #Kinnaur are located close to potentially degrading permafrost zones. The simulations further show that a potential GLOF from Kashang Lake could inundate critical downstream infrastructure, including nearly 11 km of National Highway 5…”
#permafrost #distribution #GIS #spatial #mapping #Himalayas #India #Kinnaur #HimachalPradesh #KashangLake #massmovement #engineeringgeology #machinelearning #AI #model #modeling #numericalmodel #glaciallakes #glaciet #glacial #glaciallakeoutburstflood #GLOF #cryosphere #geostatistics #rockglaciers #GeoAI #bathymetry #processchainsimulation #HECRAS #avaflow #risk #hazard #mitigation #riskassessment #infrastructure #HEP #publicsafety #downstream #avalanche

Permafrost Distribution, Degradation, And Potential Mass Movement Cascades In The Western Himalaya Using Machine Learning And Numerical Models
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00217-4 <-- shared paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-22051-w <-- shared (earlier) paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2025.2488532 <-- shared (earlier) paper
--
H/T @abhinav Alangadan
“Can we develop a first-order understanding of permafrost degradation and glacial lakes exposed to degradation-induced mass movements in the Himalaya?
[The authors] tried to address this question. The study [first link above] integrates machine learning, statistical modeling, and numerical modeling to investigate high-resolution permafrost distribution, potential degradation, and associated mass-movement hazards in the Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh, India.
Using rock glaciers as proxies, [they] generated a high-resolution permafrost distribution using machine learning, while potential degradation zones were delineated using the 0°C isotherm as a first-order indicator. [They] further identified glacial lakes located near potentially degrading permafrost zones and reconstructed their bathymetry. A detailed scenario-based GLOF process-chain simulation was then carried out for Kashang Lake using r.avaflow and HEC-RAS.
[Their] results indicate that seven glacial lakes in #Kinnaur are located close to potentially degrading permafrost zones. The simulations further show that a potential GLOF from Kashang Lake could inundate critical downstream infrastructure, including nearly 11 km of National Highway 5…”
#permafrost #distribution #GIS #spatial #mapping #Himalayas #India #Kinnaur #HimachalPradesh #KashangLake #massmovement #engineeringgeology #machinelearning #AI #model #modeling #numericalmodel #glaciallakes #glaciet #glacial #glaciallakeoutburstflood #GLOF #cryosphere #geostatistics #rockglaciers #GeoAI #bathymetry #processchainsimulation #HECRAS #avaflow #risk #hazard #mitigation #riskassessment #infrastructure #HEP #publicsafety #downstream #avalanche

Permafrost Distribution, Degradation, And Potential Mass Movement Cascades In The Western Himalaya Using Machine Learning And Numerical Models
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00217-4 <-- shared paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-22051-w <-- shared (earlier) paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2025.2488532 <-- shared (earlier) paper
--
H/T @abhinav Alangadan
“Can we develop a first-order understanding of permafrost degradation and glacial lakes exposed to degradation-induced mass movements in the Himalaya?
[The authors] tried to address this question. The study [first link above] integrates machine learning, statistical modeling, and numerical modeling to investigate high-resolution permafrost distribution, potential degradation, and associated mass-movement hazards in the Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh, India.
Using rock glaciers as proxies, [they] generated a high-resolution permafrost distribution using machine learning, while potential degradation zones were delineated using the 0°C isotherm as a first-order indicator. [They] further identified glacial lakes located near potentially degrading permafrost zones and reconstructed their bathymetry. A detailed scenario-based GLOF process-chain simulation was then carried out for Kashang Lake using r.avaflow and HEC-RAS.
[Their] results indicate that seven glacial lakes in #Kinnaur are located close to potentially degrading permafrost zones. The simulations further show that a potential GLOF from Kashang Lake could inundate critical downstream infrastructure, including nearly 11 km of National Highway 5…”
#permafrost #distribution #GIS #spatial #mapping #Himalayas #India #Kinnaur #HimachalPradesh #KashangLake #massmovement #engineeringgeology #machinelearning #AI #model #modeling #numericalmodel #glaciallakes #glaciet #glacial #glaciallakeoutburstflood #GLOF #cryosphere #geostatistics #rockglaciers #GeoAI #bathymetry #processchainsimulation #HECRAS #avaflow #risk #hazard #mitigation #riskassessment #infrastructure #HEP #publicsafety #downstream #avalanche

Permafrost Distribution, Degradation, And Potential Mass Movement Cascades In The Western Himalaya Using Machine Learning And Numerical Models
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00217-4 <-- shared paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-22051-w <-- shared (earlier) paper
--
https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2025.2488532 <-- shared (earlier) paper
--
H/T @abhinav Alangadan
“Can we develop a first-order understanding of permafrost degradation and glacial lakes exposed to degradation-induced mass movements in the Himalaya?
[The authors] tried to address this question. The study [first link above] integrates machine learning, statistical modeling, and numerical modeling to investigate high-resolution permafrost distribution, potential degradation, and associated mass-movement hazards in the Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh, India.
Using rock glaciers as proxies, [they] generated a high-resolution permafrost distribution using machine learning, while potential degradation zones were delineated using the 0°C isotherm as a first-order indicator. [They] further identified glacial lakes located near potentially degrading permafrost zones and reconstructed their bathymetry. A detailed scenario-based GLOF process-chain simulation was then carried out for Kashang Lake using r.avaflow and HEC-RAS.
[Their] results indicate that seven glacial lakes in #Kinnaur are located close to potentially degrading permafrost zones. The simulations further show that a potential GLOF from Kashang Lake could inundate critical downstream infrastructure, including nearly 11 km of National Highway 5…”
#permafrost #distribution #GIS #spatial #mapping #Himalayas #India #Kinnaur #HimachalPradesh #KashangLake #massmovement #engineeringgeology #machinelearning #AI #model #modeling #numericalmodel #glaciallakes #glaciet #glacial #glaciallakeoutburstflood #GLOF #cryosphere #geostatistics #rockglaciers #GeoAI #bathymetry #processchainsimulation #HECRAS #avaflow #risk #hazard #mitigation #riskassessment #infrastructure #HEP #publicsafety #downstream #avalanche

Study reveals hidden role of permafrost in ancient climate change

For decades, scientists have looked to the oceans for answers about one of Earth’s biggest climate mysteries: Why…
#Climate #ClimateChange #Climate-Change #ancient #AncientClimate #ancientclimatechange #carbondioxide #climatechange #GlobalGoodNews #globalwarming #GreenGoodNews #NewDiscoveries #permafrost #research #science
https://www.europesays.com/3046878/

Study reveals hidden role of permafrost in ancient climate change https://www.byteseu.com/2087159/ #Ancient #AncientClimate #AncientClimateChange #CarbonDioxide #Climate #ClimateChange #GlobalGoodNews #GlobalWarming #GreenGoodNews #NewDiscoveries #permafrost #Research #Science

Warming unlocks ancient carbon in Tibetan permafrost, triggering climate tipping point

The results revealed a clear and troubling pattern across all warming levels. Even under low to moderate warming, #carbon losses through respiration outpaced photosynthetic carbon gains by 1–16-fold.

Warming by +1°C, +2°C, and +4°C increased annual net #CO2 release by 44%, 80%, and 176%, respectively, and the site was a net carbon source before any experimental warming began.

"When warming reaches around 2–4°C, the system changes fundamentally," Ding told Phys.org. "Plants begin to reach their thermal and water-stress limits, so photosynthesis declines. At the same time, thaw penetrates deeper into the #soil, exposing old #permafrost carbon that has been frozen and protected for hundreds to thousands of years. Once thawed, microbes can decompose it and release it as CO2."

https://phys.org/news/2026-06-ancient-carbon-tibetan-permafrost-triggering.html

#TippingPoint
#Tibet
#Himalaya
#Uhhps

💁🏻‍♀️ ICYMI: In #Siberia’s #SakhaRepublic, the #Batagay megaslump – nicknamed the Gateway to #Hell – has tripled in size since 1991 as #permafrost thaws.

The process releases 4,000-5,000 tons of #carbon annually and has uncovered a 50,000-year-old baby #mammoth (2024) and an extinct #horse with the oldest liquid #blood ever found (2018).

👉 https://www.discoverwildlife.com/environment/batagay-crater-gateway-to-hell

#climate #climatechange #megaslump #paleontology #arctic #iceage #fossil #geology #science

💁🏻‍♀️ ICYMI: In #Siberia’s #SakhaRepublic, the #Batagay megaslump – nicknamed the Gateway to #Hell – has tripled in size since 1991 as #permafrost thaws.

The process releases 4,000-5,000 tons of #carbon annually and has uncovered a 50,000-year-old baby #mammoth (2024) and an extinct #horse with the oldest liquid #blood ever found (2018).

👉 https://www.discoverwildlife.com/environment/batagay-crater-gateway-to-hell

#climate #climatechange #megaslump #paleontology #arctic #iceage #fossil #geology #science

💁🏻‍♀️ ICYMI: In #Siberia’s #SakhaRepublic, the #Batagay megaslump – nicknamed the Gateway to #Hell – has tripled in size since 1991 as #permafrost thaws.

The process releases 4,000-5,000 tons of #carbon annually and has uncovered a 50,000-year-old baby #mammoth (2024) and an extinct #horse with the oldest liquid #blood ever found (2018).

👉 https://www.discoverwildlife.com/environment/batagay-crater-gateway-to-hell

#climate #climatechange #megaslump #paleontology #arctic #iceage #fossil #geology #science

💁🏻‍♀️ ICYMI: In #Siberia’s #SakhaRepublic, the #Batagay megaslump – nicknamed the Gateway to #Hell – has tripled in size since 1991 as #permafrost thaws.

The process releases 4,000-5,000 tons of #carbon annually and has uncovered a 50,000-year-old baby #mammoth (2024) and an extinct #horse with the oldest liquid #blood ever found (2018).

👉 https://www.discoverwildlife.com/environment/batagay-crater-gateway-to-hell

#climate #climatechange #megaslump #paleontology #arctic #iceage #fossil #geology #science

💁🏻‍♀️ ICYMI: In #Siberia’s #SakhaRepublic, the #Batagay megaslump – nicknamed the Gateway to #Hell – has tripled in size since 1991 as #permafrost thaws.

The process releases 4,000-5,000 tons of #carbon annually and has uncovered a 50,000-year-old baby #mammoth (2024) and an extinct #horse with the oldest liquid #blood ever found (2018).

👉 https://www.discoverwildlife.com/environment/batagay-crater-gateway-to-hell

#climate #climatechange #megaslump #paleontology #arctic #iceage #fossil #geology #science

Thawing permafrost responsible for acidification of Yukon watersheds
#Indigenous #FirstNations #Yukon #Canada #Permafrost #ClimateChange #Ecology #Environment #WaterQuality #Pollution #NorthernCanada #Watersheds #HeavyMetals #Freshwater #AcidRockDrainage
https://the-14.com/thawing-permafrost-responsible-for-acidification-of-yukon-watersheds/

Thawing permafrost responsible for acidification of Yukon watersheds
#Indigenous #FirstNations #Yukon #Canada #Permafrost #ClimateChange #Ecology #Environment #WaterQuality #Pollution #NorthernCanada #Watersheds #HeavyMetals #Freshwater #AcidRockDrainage
https://the-14.com/thawing-permafrost-responsible-for-acidification-of-yukon-watersheds/

Thawing permafrost responsible for acidification of Yukon watersheds
#Indigenous #FirstNations #Yukon #Canada #Permafrost #ClimateChange #Ecology #Environment #WaterQuality #Pollution #NorthernCanada #Watersheds #HeavyMetals #Freshwater #AcidRockDrainage
https://the-14.com/thawing-permafrost-responsible-for-acidification-of-yukon-watersheds/

Thawing permafrost responsible for acidification of Yukon watersheds
#Indigenous #FirstNations #Yukon #Canada #Permafrost #ClimateChange #Ecology #Environment #WaterQuality #Pollution #NorthernCanada #Watersheds #HeavyMetals #Freshwater #AcidRockDrainage
https://the-14.com/thawing-permafrost-responsible-for-acidification-of-yukon-watersheds/

Thawing permafrost responsible for acidification of Yukon watersheds
#Indigenous #FirstNations #Yukon #Canada #Permafrost #ClimateChange #Ecology #Environment #WaterQuality #Pollution #NorthernCanada #Watersheds #HeavyMetals #Freshwater #AcidRockDrainage
https://the-14.com/thawing-permafrost-responsible-for-acidification-of-yukon-watersheds/

Glacier collapse forces Blatten residents to rebuild lives in Swiss Alps https://www.byteseu.com/2056338/ #BirchGlacier #blatten #ClimateChange #HotelMomentum #LoetschenValley #LukasKalbermatten #MatthiasHuss #OigschtchummunGlacier #permafrost #Swissinfo #Switzerland