#risk-assessment — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #risk-assessment, aggregated by home.social.
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#AI #RiskAssessment #WeaponsOfMathDestruction
Jeg blev lige mindet om en rapport, jeg skrev på ITU, på kurset "Digitalisation and Public Sector Transformation": "Preparing for a potential future of using algorithms in case decision work at Ankestyrelsen". Jeg arbejdede der og fulgte en konkurrence, de holdt, hvor medarbejdere kunne foreslå ideer til sagsbehandling vha. machine learning.
Hele rapporten kan læses her: https://www.hartmannconsulting.dk/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/BEBE_Digitalisation-and-Public-Sector_FINAL.pdf
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DATE: May 14, 2026 at 02:00PM
SOURCE: PSYPOST.ORG** Research quality varies widely from fantastic to small exploratory studies. Please check research methods when conclusions are very important to you. **
-------------------------------------------------TITLE: Women score higher than men on fluid intelligence tests when allowed to express uncertainty
Traditional tests of intelligence and literacy may be fundamentally flawed because they force test-takers to choose a single answer rather than allowing them to express their level of confidence in different options. When people are given financial incentives and allowed to distribute their answers based on how sure they are, women actually score higher than men. The research was published in the Journal of Political Economy.
For decades, psychologists and economists have measured cognitive ability using multiple-choice tests. These assessments score responses as strictly right or wrong. Glenn W. Harrison of Georgia State University, Don Ross of University College Cork, and J. Todd Swarthout of Georgia State University suspected this format misses a vital component of human cognition. Knowing how strongly to believe in an answer is a skill in itself.
The researchers note that the standard format forces people to mask their thought processes. If someone is somewhat confident in an answer but still perceives some risk of being wrong, the rigid format does not capture that nuance. The test format demands absolute certainty even when a person possesses healthy skepticism.
To address this, the team examined the Raven Advanced Progressive Matrices test. This assessment presents a grid of shapes with one missing piece and asks the test-taker to identify the pattern. It is widely used to measure fluid intelligence, which is the ability to solve new logic problems without relying on prior knowledge.
The researchers wrote that, “The measurement of intelligence should identify and measure an individual’s subjective confidence that a response to a test question is correct.” They noted that existing tests completely fail to achieve this goal.
The standard version of this puzzle allows test-takers unlimited time and offers no financial motivation. The researchers created a computerized version that offered monetary rewards for correct answers. They divided participants into different groups to test how the structure of the task changed their performance.
In the baseline group, participants took a traditional version for a flat fee of five dollars. In another group, participants were paid based on their accuracy but were still forced to pick just one answer. A third group experienced a radically different test structure.
These participants were given eighty digital tokens to allocate across eight possible answers. If they were completely sure, they could place all eighty tokens on a single choice for a maximum reward of two dollars per puzzle. If they were unsure, they could spread their tokens out over multiple likely answers to guarantee a smaller payout.
This token system measures what the researchers refer to as confidence. In this context, confidence does not mean optimism. It refers to the precision of a person’s belief. A person who places ten tokens on every single answer is safely guarding against risk because they have no idea which shape is correct.
When financial incentives were combined with the ability to express varying degrees of confidence, the results shifted dramatically. In the traditional format, female participants scored lower than male participants. When participants could assign tokens based on their confidence, women outperformed men.
The data showed that female participants were better at calculating the risk of their answers and distributing their tokens efficiently. Knowing when you are unsure is a core part of cognition. The researchers consider this risk assessment to be a fundamental element of fluid intelligence.
The researchers also altered the order of the puzzles. The standard test starts with easy puzzles and gradually progresses to difficult ones. The researchers call this sequence a structured progression, meaning it is an environmental clue that helps a person think.
When the researchers scrambled the order of the puzzles so that difficulty varied randomly, overall performance dropped. The gap in performance between the group forced to pick one answer and the group allowed to use tokens widened even further. This confirmed that the ability to express uncertainty is a distinct cognitive advantage when facing unpredictable problems.
This discovery regarding gender prompted the researchers to revisit other areas where men possess a supposed advantage. They looked at studies regarding competitiveness. Past behavioral studies suggest that women back away from competitive environments, such as workplace tournaments, in favor of flat payment schedules.
The researchers recreated these experiments using the token system and discovered that women were making the mathematically correct risk management choices. Participants had to solve logic problems under a time limit, choosing either a guaranteed payment per correct answer or a tournament style where only the top performer received a large payout.
Men tended to choose the competitive tournament even when it resulted in a monetary loss for them. Men proved to be overly optimistic about their chances of winning. Women evaluated the risk accurately and chose the safer compensation structure, which resulted in better financial outcomes.
The team also looked at financial literacy tests. Standard surveys report that women choose the “do not know” option much more often than men when asked financial questions. This has led to the assumption that women possess lower financial literacy.
The researchers presented participants with a standard question about calculating purchasing power based on interest and inflation rates. When the researchers allowed subjects to use tokens to answer the question, they found that women were just more open about their lack of complete certainty. The bias in their actual knowledge was tiny and not statistically significant.
Many women distributed their tokens broadly, meaning they were aware that they lacked the exact knowledge and guarded their bets accordingly. This behavior signals an intellectual awareness of uncertainty. Someone who knows they are guessing is more likely to seek out a financial advisor or a textbook to learn the correct answer.
Individuals who place all their tokens on a highly incorrect answer represent a much larger danger. The researchers noted that these individuals are completely confident in their incorrect knowledge. These are the people most likely to make catastrophic financial decisions without consulting outside help.
The authors specify that their findings on motivation might involve variables that are difficult to isolate. Participants might bring personal motivations into the laboratory that interact with the monetary incentives offered by the experimenters.
Future studies could attempt to separate these personal drives from the financial rewards to see how they impact token distribution. The research team also plans to further investigate data suggesting that Black participants similarly perform drastically better when allowed to express their confidence through the token system.
The study, “Gender, Confidence, and the Mismeasure of Intelligence, Competitiveness, and Literacy,” was authored by Glenn W. Harrison, Don Ross, and J. Todd Swarthout.
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#psychology #counseling #socialwork #psychotherapy @psychotherapist @psychotherapists @psychology @socialpsych @socialwork @psychiatry #mentalhealth #psychiatry #healthcare #depression #psychotherapist #FluidIntelligence #ConfidenceInAssessment #TokenBasedTesting #GenderDifferences #RiskAssessment #UncertaintyExpression #CognitiveMeasurement #EconomicIncentives #FinancialLiteracy #RavenMatrices
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A 481-Metre-High Landslide-Tsunami In A Cruise Ship–Frequented Alaska Fjord
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https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aec3187 <-- shared paper
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https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/06/science/tsunami-landslide-alaska-climate-arctic.html <-- shared media article
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#naturalhazard #glacier #glacial #melting #risk #hazard #climatechance #extremeweather #tsunami #runup #riskassessment #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #cryosphere #disaster #publicsafety #damage #infrastructure #Alaska #fjord #landslide #massmovement #engineeringeology #geology #cruiseship #humanimpacts #water #hydrology #caseexample #monitoring #coast #coastal #marine #wave #microseismicity #remotesensing #earthobservation #tourism #averteddisaster #readiness #awareness #planning #safety #deglaciating -
Government of Canada: Government of Canada creates platform for Canada-wide flood risk awareness: Canada’s Flood Risk Finder. “With a simple address search, users will be able to quickly find information about the flood risk in their area, rated on a four-point scale from low to extreme. This new tool complements other sources of data, like local, provincial, and territorial maps, and fills […]
https://rbfirehose.com/2026/04/29/government-of-canada-creates-platform-for-canada-wide-flood-risk-awareness-canadas-flood-risk-finder-government-of-canada/ -
A critique of the linear non-threshold model used by the U.S. EPA to assess cancer risk:
https://www.acsh.org/news/2026/04/28/assessing-cancer-risk-its-time-follow-science-50084
As noted in the article, this is a politically contentious topic. The author has had a long career in both the public and private sector, and does not appear to have a political agenda.
#Toxicology #RiskAssessment #Cancer #Environment #EnvironmentalToxicology #USEPA
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PsyPost: Women perceive AI as riskier than men do, study finds. “An online survey found that women consistently perceive AI to be riskier than men. The key drivers behind this view are women’s higher general risk aversion and their greater exposure to AI-related risks.”
https://rbfirehose.com/2026/04/28/psypost-women-perceive-ai-as-riskier-than-men-do-study-finds/ -
YouTube’s Risk Assessments Are Not Publicly Testable
By Cliff Potts, CSO, and Editor-in-Chief of WPS News
Baybay City, Leyte, Philippines — April 26, 2026
Reporting
Under the Digital Services Act (DSA), very large online platforms are required to conduct regular risk assessments addressing systemic harms, including the amplification of illegal content, threats to civic discourse, and impacts on fundamental rights. YouTube has stated that it complies with these obligations through internal evaluations and mitigation plans submitted to EU authorities.
What remains unavailable is the evidence needed to independently test those claims.
Public disclosures summarize conclusions but not methods. They describe risks in general terms without detailing assumptions, metrics, or counterfactuals. External researchers, journalists, and civil-society groups are asked to trust that assessments are rigorous while being denied access to the data that would allow verification.
In effect, YouTube reports that it has assessed risk—without showing how.
Analysis
A risk assessment that cannot be tested is a corporate assertion, not an accountability mechanism.
Meaningful oversight requires more than assurances. It requires visibility into the indicators used, the thresholds applied, and the trade-offs accepted. Without this information, regulators cannot determine whether mitigation measures address root causes or merely manage appearances.
This opacity reflects incentives shaped at the parent level. Google has long resisted external auditing of its core systems, citing security and proprietary concerns. While some confidentiality is legitimate, blanket opacity prevents independent scrutiny of claims that directly affect public life.
The result is a one-sided process: platforms define risk, evaluate themselves, and report outcomes in summary form. EU oversight is left to review conclusions rather than interrogate evidence.
What Remains Unclear
YouTube does not disclose the specific metrics used to assess systemic risk within EU member states, nor how those metrics vary by language, topic, or election cycle. It also does not publish the results of stress tests showing how changes to recommendations or monetization would alter risk profiles.
Without access to these details, neither regulators nor the public can judge whether risk mitigation is proportionate or effective.
Why This Matters
The DSA was designed to move beyond trust-based governance. Its purpose is to replace assurances with evidence. When platforms provide only summaries, that purpose is undermined.
If risk assessments remain shielded from independent evaluation, enforcement becomes reactive rather than preventive. Harm is identified after it spreads, not before it is amplified.
For EU regulators, the question is straightforward: can a system built on self-assessment deliver public accountability? Until YouTube’s risk evaluations are open to meaningful testing, that question remains unanswered.
References (APA)
European Commission. (2024). Digital Services Act: Systemic risk assessment and mitigation obligations.
#algorithms #DigitalServicesAct #Google #platformAccountability #riskAssessment #YouTube
European Digital Rights (EDRi). (2023). Platform risk assessments and the limits of self-reporting.
Pasquale, F. (2020). New laws of robotics: Defending human expertise in the age of AI. Harvard University Press. -
Hanging Glaciers In Himalaya Reveal Rising Avalanche Risk
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https://www.nature.com/articles/d44151-026-00072-2 <-- shared technical article
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00205-8 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #risk #hazard #monitoring #engineeringgeology #naturalhazard #Himalaya #Himalayas #Alaknanda #basin #Garhwal #India #ice #cryosphere #massmovement #avalanche #glacier #hangingglacier #cryosphere #remotesensing #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #sentinel2 #DEM #elevation #model #modeling #GlabTop2 #unstable #hanging #BadrinathMana #impact #infrastructure #damage #HEP #urbanisation #development #population #publicsafety #demographics #glacialretreat #melting #Chamoli #disaster #earlywarningsystems #Himalayan #glaciers #instability #warming #climatechange #riskassessment #riskclassification #framework #avaflow #runout #downstream #downslope #water #hydrology #planning #policy #mitigation #geomorphology #geomorphometry -
GLOF [Glacial Lake Outburst Flood] Risk Management in Sikkim
[overview/technical video]
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https://youtu.be/ZM4M_oyYBTQ?si=WAD1zMJDawjdGw3n <-- shared video
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#GLOF #Himalayan #Himalayas #India #Pakistan #Nepal #cryosphere #glacier #glacial #melting #water #hydrology #risk #hazard #Sikkim #mitigation #planning #monitoring #infrastructure #climatechange #video #publicsafety #damage #cost #economics #riskassessment #disaster #riskmanagement #policy #government #governance #resilience #community #population #mountains #Switzerland #cooperation #expertise #riskreduction -
📊 Our comprehensive risk assessment of Broadcom ($AVGO) uncovers 8 critical exposures beyond standard disclosures - from customer concentration (~50% revenue from top 5) to NVIDIA's ($NVDA) platform encroachment in AI networking. https://post.kapualabs.com/yckjunx9 #Semiconductors #AI #Investing #RiskAssessment
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The fastest deal is useless if your vendor opens the wrong door 🚪
#CyberSecurity #DataProtection #InformationSecurity #Infosec #Compliance #ITSecurity #CyberRisk #CyberAwareness #DigitalSecurity #SecurityLeadership #BusinessContinuity #RiskAssessment #ISMS #ISO27001 #CISO
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From a game theory perspective: The Strait of Hormuz presents a classic Schelling game where maritime transit risk converts tactical incidents into systemic consequences. Analysis outlines four strategic equilibria with probabilities and critical tripwires. https://post.kapualabs.com/bc63pp23 #Geopolitics #RiskAssessment #GameTheory #StraitOfHormuz
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#FYI #ClimateChat #DanMiller #LeonSimons #EliRabani #StaceyRandecker #strategy #sustainability #riskAssessment #profit #corruption #humanRights
Interview with #AlisonTaylor on #business #ethics and its impact on #climateChange
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4c2YT_pZZ8k
#climatechange #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #ExtremeWeather #polycrisis
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CW: good thread on LLM risk assessment / measurement
Excellent thoughtful thread here from @glyph and others, about the nature of LLM coding etc, and how we can evaluate its effects without being misled by subjective impressions:
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#FYI #US #USA #AmericanResiliency #resilience #TimesOfChange @[email protected] dr. #EmilySchoerning compares tools for current and future #wildfire #riskAssessment www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-Vo... #ClimateScience #climatechange #ClimateCrisis #globalWarming #ExtremeWeather #polycrisis
Wildfire Risk: Tool Comparison... -
#FYI #US #USA #AmericanResiliency #resilience #TimesOfChange
dr. #EmilySchoerning compares two tools for current and future #wildfire #riskAssessment
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-Vo14AmI3c
#climate #ClimateScience #climatechange #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #ExtremeWeather #polycrisis
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Karst Flash Floods - An Example From The Dinaric Karst (Croatia)
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-195-2006 <-- shared (older) paper
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#flood #flooding #pluvial #fluvial #subsurface #risk #hazard #naturalhazard #disaster #flashflood #infrastructure #damage #building #destabilisation #foundations #karstburst #Marina #Dinaric #Croatia #extremeweather #climatechange #intense #prolonged #rainfall #precipitation #speed #fast #caves #conduits #fractures #aquifers #water #hydrology #groundwater #hydrogeology #waterpressure #sinkhole #subsidence #massmovement #landslide #monitoring #mapping #geology #engineeringgeology #hydroseismic #humanimpacts #lossoflife #death #karstterrain #springs #debris #sediment #cavities #riskassessment #Grazalema #Andalusia #Cadíz #Spain #StormLeonard #emergencymanagement #planning -
Unveiling The Environmental Impact Of Earthquakes In Europe
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📄 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-68120-6 <-- shared paper
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🗺️ https://embodiedcarbon.builtenvdata.eu/ <-- shared interactive platform
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📦 https://github.com/gem/global_embodied_carbon_model <-- shared github ‘code base’
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🌍 https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gemevents/gem2026-conference-from-faults-to-future-scenarios <-- shared details of 2026 GEM Conference: From Faults To Future Scenarios, June 2026, Croatia
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#EmbodiedCarbon #service #GlobalEarthquakeModel #earthquake #damage #europe #carbon #GEM #data #maps #opendata #openspatial #GIS #spatial #mapping #seimsic #damage #buildings #urban #residential #commercial #industrial #replacement #infrastructure #typologies #naturalhazard #fault #faulting #geology #global #carbonbudget #climate #climatechange #carboncost #CO2 #carbondioxide #openscience #database #spatialdata #carbonfootprint #seismicrisk #planning #risk #hazard #factors #riskassessment #𝘀𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 #engineering #design
@gem -
Risk modeling identifies your actual assets, realistic threats, and vulnerabilities. Then threat modeling maps HOW those threats exploit vulnerabilities. Skip risk modeling and you only model attack paths you randomly thought of, not ones that threaten your business.
No defense standard lets you skip risk assessment. GrapheneOS does threat modeling for their chosen threats but without your risk model, critical HOWs never got modeled.
Threat modeling without risk modeling is blind darts. You only secure the attack paths you randomly thought of.
2/2
#InfoSec #CyberSecurity #ThreatModeling #RiskManagement #Security #RiskAssessment #AppSec
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"Idk, I think it's less about empathy or compassion, and more about making sure the (hopefully small) group of uncaring people who enter medicine or allied health professions are incentivised to act pro-socially.
Like, in your region, what studying conditions and working conditions are clinicians expected to tolerate? Do they receive a living wage throughout study and work? Is their livelihood for a single person or big enough they can build a household?Do they feel comfortable being a whistleblower when something goes wrong? (Numbers-wise, mistakes will happen over time.)
How robust is the inspection or regulation? How flexible are the logistics of each sector?
How many crises at once can be weathered without change to patient care? How long will it take to build back up that 'extra' capacity / contingency margin?Who (in what position, in which teams) is responsible (or in what order) for noticing angels of death? What about anyone with less final but still harmful motives?
How severe are the consequences for failure? How many people feel compelled to hide errors rather than remedy them? What options for remediation are accessible to all staff, including contractors?"
#MedMastodon #DoLessHarm #SystemsThinking #HarmReduction #Medical #Medicine #MD #Systems #NonExpert #LayPerson #RubberNecking #Risk #RiskAssessment #RiskManagement #Risk_Management #Audit #Efficiency #Efficacy #Flexibility #TrueCrime #Crime
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The suspected rail sabotage in northern Italy highlights a recurring challenge: protecting physical infrastructure during high-profile global events.
With fires, damaged signaling components, and hours-long delays reported, the incident underscores how transport systems remain exposed to disruption even without advanced technical methods.
Source: https://therecord.media/italy-suspected-sabotage-winter-olympics-trains
💬 How should critical infrastructure protection evolve for large-scale international events?
🔔 Follow TechNadu for ongoing analysis of infrastructure and security risks
#CriticalInfrastructure #InfrastructureSecurity #PhysicalSecurity #RiskAssessment #PublicTransport #TechNadu
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I have some concerns about financial risk factors we’re facing in 2026 - so I wrote a thing expressing my take on global threats and risks facing investors, financial advisors and policy makers. Just my personal research and opinions mind you. Those interested in #investing and #Finance may find some value; or at least grist for a conversation. I do include quotes from recognized authorities and some relevant charts and graphs. I’d love to discuss, have a legit conversation about these issues - so feel free to have a think and respond, argue, clarify…whatever. I surely didn’t cover all the global risks, focusing on those I identified in my 2023 report (linked in the update) on the subject. #RiskAssessment #GlobalEconomy #StockMarket https://docs.google.com/document/d/1fxt2JiUiLfJ3Lr0EhlCOfAFvMPJX8X_rpHkL9mmiFxM/edit?usp=drivesdk