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#climatemodels — Public Fediverse posts

Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #climatemodels, aggregated by home.social.

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  1. I should probably bookmark that study for the next time a boomer or consumer of Springer media‘s mental dog droppings says something along the lines of „but we don’t really know how warm it will be, models are so coarse due to limited computing power early and are still not that precise, and also it’s just models“ #climatechange #climatemodels

  2. 3-Sep-2026
    #Antarctic expedition reveals why #SouthernOcean #clouds remain one of #climateScience's greatest challenges
    Researchers compare real-world observations with leading #climateModels to improve future climate predictions

    eurekalert.org/news-releases/1

    #science #climateCatastrophe #environment

  3. 🌊The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation #AMOC frequently appears in headlines. Some reports suggest that it is close to shutting down due to #ClimateChange, others claim that it might actually be quite resilient. So, what is the current situation? 🌎 Our director Jochem Marotzke explains what we know & what we don’t know about Europe’s heating system & what could be learned from km-scale #ClimateModels.
    📘Read more in the @maxplanckgesellschaft research magazine: mpg.de/26911122/F001_Focus_22-

  4. Scientists Isolate Human Climate Fingerprint Using Observed Temperature Data — Environmental Protection

    Scientists Isolate Human Climate Fingerprint Using Observed Temperature Data Researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology have…
    #Climate #ClimateChange #Climate-Change #climatechange #Climatemodels #environmentalscience #globalwarming #humanfingerprint #MaxPlanckInstitute #regionalclimatetrends #temperaturedata
    europesays.com/3205988/

  5. Sharks: The Unlikely Allies in Hurricane Forecasting

    In a groundbreaking study, University of Delaware researchers are harnessing the power of nature’s ocean predators to improve…
    #Environment #Climatemodels #Hurricane #MarineScience #oceandata #prédictions #sensors #sharks #technology #universityofdelaware #weatherforecasting
    europesays.com/3185760/

  6. 🌍 Our #climatemodels can't explain Earth's growing energy imbalance. ☁️ In March, our director Bjorn Stevens convened 44 international experts at Ringberg Castle (@maxplanckgesellschaft) to investigate this problem with a focus on #clouds, #aerosols & the pattern effect. 📰 @TheEconomist covered the workshop, spotlighting the science & the race to solve this urgent #climate puzzle:
    🔗 economist.com/science-and-tech

  7. Canadian study suggests social norms rival economics in climate fight and can sway action abroad

    Efforts to cut emissions in one region can echo far beyond it, influencing public support for climate action…
    #Canada #climateaction #climatechange #climatechangemitigation #climatemodels #climaterisk #NatureCommunications #Socialnorms #UniversityofWaterloo
    europesays.com/canada/127448/

  8. Study suggests life on Earth has around 1.8 billion years left — but the biosphere might evolve to survive…

    When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. Scientists…
    #NewsBeep #News #US #USA #UnitedStates #UnitedStatesOfAmerica #Science #BlueMarbleSpace #carbondioxide #climatemodels #Earth #lifeonEarth #LiveScience #RobertGraham
    newsbeep.com/us/740416/

  9. Paul Beckwith, a climate science educator, goes through James Hansen's recent warnings about a coming "Super El Niño".

    This video (24:48) assumes a small amount of background in math and science, enough to read time/temperature graphs, but is generally quite accessible in its explanations. He walks through a lot of good stuff like how the El Niño / La Niña cycle works, what some of the "forcings" are that are driving some of these things, why things like aerosols matter, what different models show, what the consensus predictions have been and why Hansen's predicting something substantively stronger.

    It's a pretty worrisome set of things, but Hansen has been an important voice in the climate conversation, and I think Beckwith's presentation is pretty level—trying to just walk through the information dispassionately in a way that can help you understand the science part.

    youtube.com/watch?v=tP3VQk3mIgQ

    Note: Notwithstanding the use of em dash, this post was written by a human.

    #climate #ElNiño #ElNino #SuperElNiño #SuperElNino #ClimateModels #ClimateModeling #warming #heat #GlobalWarming #aerosol #aerosols #OceanWarming #ClimateSensitivity #ClimateScience #science #co2 #IPCC #forcing #Greenhouse #JamesHansen #PaulBeckwith #video #YouTube

  10. In biology/geology "#marinesnow" refers to the #organicdebris of organisms from higher #waterlevels. The #carboncycle thus transfers #CO2 to the #seabed, thus binding the #greenhousegas.
    B. Borer et al. (2026) found that #microbial components of this "snow" induce #calciumcarbonate #dissolution in higher waters, reducing their #settlingvelocity and requiring consideration in future #climatemodels.
    ©#StefanFWirth

    Buy me a coffee
    ko-fi.com/sfwirth
    Ref
    doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2510025123
    Pics
    ©S.F.Wirth

  11. RE: mastodon.social/@sflorg/116003

    This interesting #study is based on ancient lake #sediment #analyses from the #Bogotá #Basin. It proves that the existing #climatemodels about the #Pliocene were underestimated regardung tropical regions. This allows prognoses, according to which also the global warming of today may bring more heat in some #tropicalzones than expected.
    See science communication article below.
    © this text #StefanFWirth 2026

  12. 💡 New Paper!

    New hybrid approach for cloud parameterizations in climate models 🌍☁️
    Physically consistent ML (symbolic regression) + practical tuning improves ICON cloud biases by
    ⬇️ 75% (Southern Ocean)
    ⬇️ 44% (subtropical stratocumulus)
    Interpretable, stable — and robust under +4 K warming.

    👉 Learn more: nature.com/articles/s41598-025

    #ClimateModels #MLforClimate #Clouds #ESMs

  13. You know, the Climate Skeptics got it partly right. But they missed the fact that the situation is worse than predicted. The #ClimateModels haven't really understood the complex, interacting impacts of the #ClimateCrisis. They are worse and more diverse and happening faster than expected. For example:

    Scientists warn of ‘regime shift’ as seaweed blooms expand worldwide
    theguardian.com/environment/20

    #Ecosystems #disruption

  14. @sflorg interesting #research, according to which future #climatemodels in regard of #globalwarming should also take the effects on oceanic #storms into account, as -so the findings- a "#stormyocean can #absorb more #heat from the #atmosphere than in calm #weather".

  15. RE: fediscience.org/@Ruth_Mottram/

    🚨 new paper alert🚨
    How to include freshwater fluxes from ice sheets in #ClimateModels - and kicking off the #FediWriMo #AcWriMo25 conversation...

    (But also an excuse to try the new quote post functionality)

  16. 🌍 We are glad to have hosted Abdou Aziz Coly, #PhD candidate from Université Gaston Berger, at #MPIM!

    Through the @maxplanckgesellschaft ARTEMIS mentoring program, Abdou has been mentored by our scientist Romain Fiévet. They have been working together on tropical convection & #ClimateModels with locally refined grids. 🤝

    This week, Abdou and Romain are attending the MPG-wide ARTEMIS #workshop in Heidelberg connecting with other #mentoring teams across the network. Great collaborations ahead!

  17. This is going to be awesome: Who wants to work on latest gen high resolution #ClimateModels and/or polar climate data from @esaclimate.bsky.social in the #ESApisco project? I'll be there with a cool project on sea ice and ice sheet mass budget - feel free to get in touch if you have other ideas!

    RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:kb7ncuujijxbu4ucrz4loaxc/post/3lynbzr6uus2k

  18. "Technical difficulties" in dealing with #ClimateChange and how to address them dominate our highlighted research reports this week.

    * Glacier Geoengineering May Have Unintended Consequences for Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries

    * In tech we trust: A history of technophilia in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) climate mitigation expertise

    * Dead-end pathways: Conceptualizing, assessing, avoiding [about counterproductive "mitigation theater"]

    As well, a fascinating behind-the-scenes report on #ClimateModels:

    * How Climate Model Developers Deal With Bugs

    Nice quote: "It’s very scientific activity because you form an idea of what’s making the model misbehave. You develop hypotheses. I think of a test and do it and that’s why the bug hunting is fun."

    #ClimateResearch

    skepticalscience.com/new_resea

  19. 🌪️ ☀️ Storms & Radiation began with a major challenge: the energy budget in our climate models was out of balance. Has that problem been solved?

    ✅ Yes! In recent model development cycles, researchers identified and fixed the energy leaks. However, there’s more progress to highlight:

    ☁️ Thanks to higher-resolution models, we can now simulate #clouds more realistically. This has revealed that convective cloud organization plays a significant role in the Earth’s energy budget.
    🌬️ An aerosol and dust scheme has been integrated into one of the models, enabling us to study climate effects from pre-industrial times to the present.
    🌧️ Studies of extreme precipitation confirm that such events increase by 7% per degree of warming, in line with theoretical predictions.
    🔬 Increasing model resolution brings simulations closer to physical theory.

    These findings enhance our understanding of the Earth system and improve the reliability of #ClimateModels for future planning.

    🎥 Watch the full video by Frida Bender on the outcomes of the Storms & Radiation group here: nextgems-h2020.eu/media-librar

    Don't forget to share your thoughts with us!

    #EarthSystemModelling #ScienceCommunication #ClimateScience #H2020 #CINEA_EU

  20. Way back in 2022, as the world tried to readjust back to "normal" following COVID - I helped to co-organise a bootcamp with sponsorhop from the @wcrp_climate IASC, @esaclimate and a generous dollop of help from @PolarRES and @dmidk colleagues.
    We gathered 10 senior scientist mentors and 22 students in an old torpedo research station (now used by Roskilde University) for 10 days. It was an extremely intense period but the 4th paper produced by this talented group has just come out.
    I consider facilitating #EarlyCareerScientists to work on important science problems an extremely rewarding part of my job, and I'm looking forward to the next one already as part of our PISCO project.

    In the mean time, go and read this extremely cool work, collecting together a huge number of radiosonde observations going back to the 1950s over the Arctic Ocean and using them to assess how well CMIP6 models represent lower atmosphere.

    #CMIP6 #ClimateModels #Arctic #ArcticClimate #SeaIce

    agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.co

  21. ☁️ ❄️ EPFL atmospheric and climate scientists show that biological particles may induce rain events that could contribute to flooding and snowstorms, owing to their ability to precipitate ice formation in clouds. They call for an update of meteorological and climate models.

    #ClimateScience #AtmosphericScience #ClimateModels

    Read more: go.epfl.ch/UGG-en

  22. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.co
    Looking at the data especially from the last 2 years regarding the growth of global temperatures, CO2 and sea levels, to claim that rude and oversimplified models can somehow represent the progression of climate events from now to 300 yrs is in itself something contrary to any scientific method. Which is the main purpose of the vast majority of currently research ?
    #climatemodels #scientificmetod

  23. After diving into this field for the last year, I very much agree with this bit:

    "most of the near-term results using ML will be in areas where the ML allows us to tackle big data type problems more efficiently than we could do before. This will lead to more skillful models, and perhaps better predictions, and allow us to increase resolution and detail faster than expected. Real progress will not be as fast as some of the more breathless commentaries have suggested, but progress will be real."

    fediscience.org/@Ruth_Mottram/
    Ruth_Mottram - One of few #ClimateBlogs to still reliably get good comments, likely because of insightful content : @RealClimate has a very good piece by @climateofgavin on #AI in #climatemodels with which I concur completely

    realclimate.org/index.php/arch

  24. One of few #ClimateBlogs to still reliably get good comments, likely because of insightful content : @RealClimate has a very good piece by @climateofgavin on #AI in #climatemodels with which I concur completely

    realclimate.org/index.php/arch

  25. If you've seen the hype about recent accomplishments of "AI" weather forecasting, and you're a #climate nerd, but not nerdy enough to have an informed opinion on what these advances in machine learning imply for modeling the climate of our rapidly warming planet, you may find this post clarifying. I did.

    Gavin Schmidt, "¡AI Caramba!", RealClimate, 28 December 2024
    realclimate.org/index.php/arch

    #AI #ML #ClimateModels

  26. Three leading #climate scientists combined insights from 10 global #climatemodels and with #AI, conclude regional warming thresholds are likely to be reached faster than previously estimated.
    Study projects most land regions as defined #IPCC will surpass critical 1.5°C threshold by #2040. Similarly, several regions are on track to exceed the 3.0°C threshold by #2060-sooner than anticipated in earlier studies."
    iopscience.iop.org/article/10.
    #climatechange #climatecrisis

  27. Some smart systems thinking.

    In order to cherrypick and exploit this research for propaganda purposes, opponents of #EnergyModernization will have to acknowledge high skill on the part of #ClimateModels. Nice dilemma, although logical integrity has never been a strength in the extreme greed demographic.

    agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.co

  28. phys.org/news/2024-12-ai-world

    (wishing this were hallucination..)

    Key findings

    Using #AI-based #transferlearning, the researchers analyzed data from 10 different #climatemodels to predict temperature increases and found:

    ‣ 34 regions are likely to exceed 1.5°C of warming by 2040.

    ‣ 31 of these 34 regions are expected to reach 2°C of warming by 2040.

    ‣ 26 of these 34 regions are projected to surpass 3°C of warming by 2060.

    Barnes*, Diffenbaugh and Seneviratne
    DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ad91ca

  29. Many discussions, reflexions, policies about climate change concern themselves with the predictions average, or central scenarios, somewhat of necessity. But there are still many uncertainties about the future evolution.

    The article below describes one reason why that change could be coming faster than expected. It’s not definitive at all, just something to keep in mind: nachrichten.idw-online.de/2024

    #climatechange #temperatureanomaly #climategoals #CarbonBudget #climatemodels

  30. @Ruth_Mottram Really excellent talk by Jun Inoue of #NIPR with really excellent new data on #clouds.
    Good to hear the data is #OpenData too
    The clouds are really still a big problem in #ClimateModels as there are so many knock-on effects...

    #PolarCordex #PolarClimate

  31. “#Nature has so far balanced our abuse. This is coming to an end,” - #JohanRockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for #ClimateImpact Research.

    #Trees and #land absorbed almost no #CO2 last year. Is nature’s #CarbonSink failing?

    The sudden collapse of carbon sinks was not factored into #ClimateModels – and could rapidly accelerate #GlobalHeating

    by Patrick Greenfield, October 14, 2024

    "It begins each day at nightfall. As the light disappears, billions of #zooplankton, #crustaceans and other marine organisms rise to the ocean surface to feed on microscopic #algae, returning to the depths at sunrise. The waste from this frenzy – Earth’s largest migration of creatures – sinks to the #ocean floor, removing millions of tonnes of #carbon from the atmosphere each year.

    "This activity is one of thousands of natural processes that regulate the Earth’s climate. Together, the planet’s oceans, forests, soils and other natural carbon sinks absorb about half of all #HumanEmissions.

    "But as the Earth heats up, scientists are increasingly concerned that those crucial processes are breaking down.

    "In 2023, the hottest year ever recorded, preliminary findings by an international team of researchers show the amount of carbon absorbed by land has temporarily collapsed. The final result was that #forest, plants and soil – as a net category – absorbed almost no carbon.

    "There are warning signs at sea, too. #Greenland’s Glaciers and #ArcticIceSheets are melting faster than expected, which is disrupting the #GulfStream ocean current and slows the rate at which oceans absorb carbon. For the algae-eating zooplankton, melting sea ice is exposing them to more sunlight – a shift scientists say could keep them in the depths for longer, disrupting the vertical migration that stores carbon on the ocean floor."

    Read more:
    theguardian.com/environment/20

    #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateCatastrophe #Exctinction #GlobalWarming

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