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#climatemodels — Public Fediverse posts

Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #climatemodels, aggregated by home.social.

  1. Paul Beckwith, a climate science educator, goes through James Hansen's recent warnings about a coming "Super El Niño".

    This video (24:48) assumes a small amount of background in math and science, enough to read time/temperature graphs, but is generally quite accessible in its explanations. He walks through a lot of good stuff like how the El Niño / La Niña cycle works, what some of the "forcings" are that are driving some of these things, why things like aerosols matter, what different models show, what the consensus predictions have been and why Hansen's predicting something substantively stronger.

    It's a pretty worrisome set of things, but Hansen has been an important voice in the climate conversation, and I think Beckwith's presentation is pretty level—trying to just walk through the information dispassionately in a way that can help you understand the science part.

    youtube.com/watch?v=tP3VQk3mIgQ

    Note: Notwithstanding the use of em dash, this post was written by a human.

    #climate #ElNiño #ElNino #SuperElNiño #SuperElNino #ClimateModels #ClimateModeling #warming #heat #GlobalWarming #aerosol #aerosols #OceanWarming #ClimateSensitivity #ClimateScience #science #co2 #IPCC #forcing #Greenhouse #JamesHansen #PaulBeckwith #video #YouTube

  2. In biology/geology "#marinesnow" refers to the #organicdebris of organisms from higher #waterlevels. The #carboncycle thus transfers #CO2 to the #seabed, thus binding the #greenhousegas.
    B. Borer et al. (2026) found that #microbial components of this "snow" induce #calciumcarbonate #dissolution in higher waters, reducing their #settlingvelocity and requiring consideration in future #climatemodels.
    ©#StefanFWirth

    Buy me a coffee
    ko-fi.com/sfwirth
    Ref
    doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2510025123
    Pics
    ©S.F.Wirth

  3. In biology/geology "#marinesnow" refers to the #organicdebris of organisms from higher #waterlevels. The #carboncycle thus transfers #CO2 to the #seabed, thus binding the #greenhousegas.
    B. Borer et al. (2026) found that #microbial components of this "snow" induce #calciumcarbonate #dissolution in higher waters, reducing their #settlingvelocity and requiring consideration in future #climatemodels.
    ©#StefanFWirth

    Buy me a coffee
    ko-fi.com/sfwirth
    Ref
    doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2510025123
    Pics
    ©S.F.Wirth

  4. In biology/geology "#marinesnow" refers to the #organicdebris of organisms from higher #waterlevels. The #carboncycle thus transfers #CO2 to the #seabed, thus binding the #greenhousegas.
    B. Borer et al. (2026) found that #microbial components of this "snow" induce #calciumcarbonate #dissolution in higher waters, reducing their #settlingvelocity and requiring consideration in future #climatemodels.
    ©#StefanFWirth

    Buy me a coffee
    ko-fi.com/sfwirth
    Ref
    doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2510025123
    Pics
    ©S.F.Wirth

  5. In biology/geology "#marinesnow" refers to the #organicdebris of organisms from higher #waterlevels. The #carboncycle thus transfers #CO2 to the #seabed, thus binding the #greenhousegas.
    B. Borer et al. (2026) found that #microbial components of this "snow" induce #calciumcarbonate #dissolution in higher waters, reducing their #settlingvelocity and requiring consideration in future #climatemodels.
    ©#StefanFWirth

    Buy me a coffee
    ko-fi.com/sfwirth
    Ref
    doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2510025123
    Pics
    ©S.F.Wirth

  6. In biology/geology "#marinesnow" refers to the #organicdebris of organisms from higher #waterlevels. The #carboncycle thus transfers #CO2 to the #seabed, thus binding the #greenhousegas.
    B. Borer et al. (2026) found that #microbial components of this "snow" induce #calciumcarbonate #dissolution in higher waters, reducing their #settlingvelocity and requiring consideration in future #climatemodels.
    ©#StefanFWirth

    Buy me a coffee
    ko-fi.com/sfwirth
    Ref
    doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2510025123
    Pics
    ©S.F.Wirth

  7. RE: mastodon.social/@sflorg/116003

    This interesting #study is based on ancient lake #sediment #analyses from the #Bogotá #Basin. It proves that the existing #climatemodels about the #Pliocene were underestimated regardung tropical regions. This allows prognoses, according to which also the global warming of today may bring more heat in some #tropicalzones than expected.
    See science communication article below.
    © this text #StefanFWirth 2026

  8. 💡 New Paper!

    New hybrid approach for cloud parameterizations in climate models 🌍☁️
    Physically consistent ML (symbolic regression) + practical tuning improves ICON cloud biases by
    ⬇️ 75% (Southern Ocean)
    ⬇️ 44% (subtropical stratocumulus)
    Interpretable, stable — and robust under +4 K warming.

    👉 Learn more: nature.com/articles/s41598-025

    #ClimateModels #MLforClimate #Clouds #ESMs

  9. @sflorg interesting #research, according to which future #climatemodels in regard of #globalwarming should also take the effects on oceanic #storms into account, as -so the findings- a "#stormyocean can #absorb more #heat from the #atmosphere than in calm #weather".

  10. 🌪️ ☀️ Storms & Radiation began with a major challenge: the energy budget in our climate models was out of balance. Has that problem been solved?

    ✅ Yes! In recent model development cycles, researchers identified and fixed the energy leaks. However, there’s more progress to highlight:

    ☁️ Thanks to higher-resolution models, we can now simulate #clouds more realistically. This has revealed that convective cloud organization plays a significant role in the Earth’s energy budget.
    🌬️ An aerosol and dust scheme has been integrated into one of the models, enabling us to study climate effects from pre-industrial times to the present.
    🌧️ Studies of extreme precipitation confirm that such events increase by 7% per degree of warming, in line with theoretical predictions.
    🔬 Increasing model resolution brings simulations closer to physical theory.

    These findings enhance our understanding of the Earth system and improve the reliability of #ClimateModels for future planning.

    🎥 Watch the full video by Frida Bender on the outcomes of the Storms & Radiation group here: nextgems-h2020.eu/media-librar

    Don't forget to share your thoughts with us!

    #EarthSystemModelling #ScienceCommunication #ClimateScience #H2020 #CINEA_EU

  11. 🌪️ ☀️ Storms & Radiation began with a major challenge: the energy budget in our climate models was out of balance. Has that problem been solved?

    ✅ Yes! In recent model development cycles, researchers identified and fixed the energy leaks. However, there’s more progress to highlight:

    ☁️ Thanks to higher-resolution models, we can now simulate #clouds more realistically. This has revealed that convective cloud organization plays a significant role in the Earth’s energy budget.
    🌬️ An aerosol and dust scheme has been integrated into one of the models, enabling us to study climate effects from pre-industrial times to the present.
    🌧️ Studies of extreme precipitation confirm that such events increase by 7% per degree of warming, in line with theoretical predictions.
    🔬 Increasing model resolution brings simulations closer to physical theory.

    These findings enhance our understanding of the Earth system and improve the reliability of #ClimateModels for future planning.

    🎥 Watch the full video by Frida Bender on the outcomes of the Storms & Radiation group here: nextgems-h2020.eu/media-librar

    Don't forget to share your thoughts with us!

    #EarthSystemModelling #ScienceCommunication #ClimateScience #H2020 #CINEA_EU

  12. 🌪️ ☀️ Storms & Radiation began with a major challenge: the energy budget in our climate models was out of balance. Has that problem been solved?

    ✅ Yes! In recent model development cycles, researchers identified and fixed the energy leaks. However, there’s more progress to highlight:

    ☁️ Thanks to higher-resolution models, we can now simulate #clouds more realistically. This has revealed that convective cloud organization plays a significant role in the Earth’s energy budget.
    🌬️ An aerosol and dust scheme has been integrated into one of the models, enabling us to study climate effects from pre-industrial times to the present.
    🌧️ Studies of extreme precipitation confirm that such events increase by 7% per degree of warming, in line with theoretical predictions.
    🔬 Increasing model resolution brings simulations closer to physical theory.

    These findings enhance our understanding of the Earth system and improve the reliability of #ClimateModels for future planning.

    🎥 Watch the full video by Frida Bender on the outcomes of the Storms & Radiation group here: nextgems-h2020.eu/media-librar

    Don't forget to share your thoughts with us!

    #EarthSystemModelling #ScienceCommunication #ClimateScience #H2020 #CINEA_EU

  13. Way back in 2022, as the world tried to readjust back to "normal" following COVID - I helped to co-organise a bootcamp with sponsorhop from the @wcrp_climate IASC, @esaclimate and a generous dollop of help from @PolarRES and @dmidk colleagues.
    We gathered 10 senior scientist mentors and 22 students in an old torpedo research station (now used by Roskilde University) for 10 days. It was an extremely intense period but the 4th paper produced by this talented group has just come out.
    I consider facilitating #EarlyCareerScientists to work on important science problems an extremely rewarding part of my job, and I'm looking forward to the next one already as part of our PISCO project.

    In the mean time, go and read this extremely cool work, collecting together a huge number of radiosonde observations going back to the 1950s over the Arctic Ocean and using them to assess how well CMIP6 models represent lower atmosphere.

    #CMIP6 #ClimateModels #Arctic #ArcticClimate #SeaIce

    agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.co

  14. Some smart systems thinking.

    In order to cherrypick and exploit this research for propaganda purposes, opponents of #EnergyModernization will have to acknowledge high skill on the part of #ClimateModels. Nice dilemma, although logical integrity has never been a strength in the extreme greed demographic.

    agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.co

  15. phys.org/news/2024-12-ai-world

    (wishing this were hallucination..)

    Key findings

    Using #AI-based #transferlearning, the researchers analyzed data from 10 different #climatemodels to predict temperature increases and found:

    ‣ 34 regions are likely to exceed 1.5°C of warming by 2040.

    ‣ 31 of these 34 regions are expected to reach 2°C of warming by 2040.

    ‣ 26 of these 34 regions are projected to surpass 3°C of warming by 2060.

    Barnes*, Diffenbaugh and Seneviratne
    DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ad91ca

  16. @Ruth_Mottram Really excellent talk by Jun Inoue of #NIPR with really excellent new data on #clouds.
    Good to hear the data is #OpenData too
    The clouds are really still a big problem in #ClimateModels as there are so many knock-on effects...

    #PolarCordex #PolarClimate

  17. #Nature has so far balanced our abuse. This is coming to an end,” - #JohanRockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for #ClimateImpact Research.

    #Trees and #land absorbed almost no #CO2 last year. Is nature’s #CarbonSink failing?

    The sudden collapse of carbon sinks was not factored into #ClimateModels – and could rapidly accelerate #GlobalHeating

    by Patrick Greenfield, October 14, 2024

    "It begins each day at nightfall. As the light disappears, billions of #zooplankton, #crustaceans and other marine organisms rise to the ocean surface to feed on microscopic #algae, returning to the depths at sunrise. The waste from this frenzy – Earth’s largest migration of creatures – sinks to the #ocean floor, removing millions of tonnes of #carbon from the atmosphere each year.

    "This activity is one of thousands of natural processes that regulate the Earth’s climate. Together, the planet’s oceans, forests, soils and other natural carbon sinks absorb about half of all #HumanEmissions.

    "But as the Earth heats up, scientists are increasingly concerned that those crucial processes are breaking down.

    "In 2023, the hottest year ever recorded, preliminary findings by an international team of researchers show the amount of carbon absorbed by land has temporarily collapsed. The final result was that #forest, plants and soil – as a net category – absorbed almost no carbon.

    "There are warning signs at sea, too. #Greenland’s Glaciers and #ArcticIceSheets are melting faster than expected, which is disrupting the #GulfStream ocean current and slows the rate at which oceans absorb carbon. For the algae-eating zooplankton, melting sea ice is exposing them to more sunlight – a shift scientists say could keep them in the depths for longer, disrupting the vertical migration that stores carbon on the ocean floor."

    Read more:
    theguardian.com/environment/20

    #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateCatastrophe #Exctinction #GlobalWarming

  18. #Nature has so far balanced our abuse. This is coming to an end,” - #JohanRockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for #ClimateImpact Research.

    #Trees and #land absorbed almost no #CO2 last year. Is nature’s #CarbonSink failing?

    The sudden collapse of carbon sinks was not factored into #ClimateModels – and could rapidly accelerate #GlobalHeating

    by Patrick Greenfield, October 14, 2024

    "It begins each day at nightfall. As the light disappears, billions of #zooplankton, #crustaceans and other marine organisms rise to the ocean surface to feed on microscopic #algae, returning to the depths at sunrise. The waste from this frenzy – Earth’s largest migration of creatures – sinks to the #ocean floor, removing millions of tonnes of #carbon from the atmosphere each year.

    "This activity is one of thousands of natural processes that regulate the Earth’s climate. Together, the planet’s oceans, forests, soils and other natural carbon sinks absorb about half of all #HumanEmissions.

    "But as the Earth heats up, scientists are increasingly concerned that those crucial processes are breaking down.

    "In 2023, the hottest year ever recorded, preliminary findings by an international team of researchers show the amount of carbon absorbed by land has temporarily collapsed. The final result was that #forest, plants and soil – as a net category – absorbed almost no carbon.

    "There are warning signs at sea, too. #Greenland’s Glaciers and #ArcticIceSheets are melting faster than expected, which is disrupting the #GulfStream ocean current and slows the rate at which oceans absorb carbon. For the algae-eating zooplankton, melting sea ice is exposing them to more sunlight – a shift scientists say could keep them in the depths for longer, disrupting the vertical migration that stores carbon on the ocean floor."

    Read more:
    theguardian.com/environment/20

    #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateCatastrophe #Exctinction #GlobalWarming

  19. #Nature has so far balanced our abuse. This is coming to an end,” - #JohanRockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for #ClimateImpact Research.

    #Trees and #land absorbed almost no #CO2 last year. Is nature’s #CarbonSink failing?

    The sudden collapse of carbon sinks was not factored into #ClimateModels – and could rapidly accelerate #GlobalHeating

    by Patrick Greenfield, October 14, 2024

    "It begins each day at nightfall. As the light disappears, billions of #zooplankton, #crustaceans and other marine organisms rise to the ocean surface to feed on microscopic #algae, returning to the depths at sunrise. The waste from this frenzy – Earth’s largest migration of creatures – sinks to the #ocean floor, removing millions of tonnes of #carbon from the atmosphere each year.

    "This activity is one of thousands of natural processes that regulate the Earth’s climate. Together, the planet’s oceans, forests, soils and other natural carbon sinks absorb about half of all #HumanEmissions.

    "But as the Earth heats up, scientists are increasingly concerned that those crucial processes are breaking down.

    "In 2023, the hottest year ever recorded, preliminary findings by an international team of researchers show the amount of carbon absorbed by land has temporarily collapsed. The final result was that #forest, plants and soil – as a net category – absorbed almost no carbon.

    "There are warning signs at sea, too. #Greenland’s Glaciers and #ArcticIceSheets are melting faster than expected, which is disrupting the #GulfStream ocean current and slows the rate at which oceans absorb carbon. For the algae-eating zooplankton, melting sea ice is exposing them to more sunlight – a shift scientists say could keep them in the depths for longer, disrupting the vertical migration that stores carbon on the ocean floor."

    Read more:
    theguardian.com/environment/20

    #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateCatastrophe #Exctinction #GlobalWarming

  20. #Nature has so far balanced our abuse. This is coming to an end,” - #JohanRockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for #ClimateImpact Research.

    #Trees and #land absorbed almost no #CO2 last year. Is nature’s #CarbonSink failing?

    The sudden collapse of carbon sinks was not factored into #ClimateModels – and could rapidly accelerate #GlobalHeating

    by Patrick Greenfield, October 14, 2024

    "It begins each day at nightfall. As the light disappears, billions of #zooplankton, #crustaceans and other marine organisms rise to the ocean surface to feed on microscopic #algae, returning to the depths at sunrise. The waste from this frenzy – Earth’s largest migration of creatures – sinks to the #ocean floor, removing millions of tonnes of #carbon from the atmosphere each year.

    "This activity is one of thousands of natural processes that regulate the Earth’s climate. Together, the planet’s oceans, forests, soils and other natural carbon sinks absorb about half of all #HumanEmissions.

    "But as the Earth heats up, scientists are increasingly concerned that those crucial processes are breaking down.

    "In 2023, the hottest year ever recorded, preliminary findings by an international team of researchers show the amount of carbon absorbed by land has temporarily collapsed. The final result was that #forest, plants and soil – as a net category – absorbed almost no carbon.

    "There are warning signs at sea, too. #Greenland’s Glaciers and #ArcticIceSheets are melting faster than expected, which is disrupting the #GulfStream ocean current and slows the rate at which oceans absorb carbon. For the algae-eating zooplankton, melting sea ice is exposing them to more sunlight – a shift scientists say could keep them in the depths for longer, disrupting the vertical migration that stores carbon on the ocean floor."

    Read more:
    theguardian.com/environment/20

    #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateCatastrophe #Exctinction #GlobalWarming

  21. #Nature has so far balanced our abuse. This is coming to an end,” - #JohanRockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for #ClimateImpact Research.

    #Trees and #land absorbed almost no #CO2 last year. Is nature’s #CarbonSink failing?

    The sudden collapse of carbon sinks was not factored into #ClimateModels – and could rapidly accelerate #GlobalHeating

    by Patrick Greenfield, October 14, 2024

    "It begins each day at nightfall. As the light disappears, billions of #zooplankton, #crustaceans and other marine organisms rise to the ocean surface to feed on microscopic #algae, returning to the depths at sunrise. The waste from this frenzy – Earth’s largest migration of creatures – sinks to the #ocean floor, removing millions of tonnes of #carbon from the atmosphere each year.

    "This activity is one of thousands of natural processes that regulate the Earth’s climate. Together, the planet’s oceans, forests, soils and other natural carbon sinks absorb about half of all #HumanEmissions.

    "But as the Earth heats up, scientists are increasingly concerned that those crucial processes are breaking down.

    "In 2023, the hottest year ever recorded, preliminary findings by an international team of researchers show the amount of carbon absorbed by land has temporarily collapsed. The final result was that #forest, plants and soil – as a net category – absorbed almost no carbon.

    "There are warning signs at sea, too. #Greenland’s Glaciers and #ArcticIceSheets are melting faster than expected, which is disrupting the #GulfStream ocean current and slows the rate at which oceans absorb carbon. For the algae-eating zooplankton, melting sea ice is exposing them to more sunlight – a shift scientists say could keep them in the depths for longer, disrupting the vertical migration that stores carbon on the ocean floor."

    Read more:
    theguardian.com/environment/20

    #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateCatastrophe #Exctinction #GlobalWarming

  22. Oskar Landgren showing early results from @PolarRES - biases between observations + new gen Regional #ClimateModels in the #Arctic. Ours is #HCLIM.

    The dots indicate weather station locations, Scandinavia disappears under a mass of dots!. The rest is much more sparsely observed...

    #NMM2024

  23. Oskar Landgren showing early results from @PolarRES - biases between observations + new gen Regional #ClimateModels in the #Arctic. Ours is #HCLIM.

    The dots indicate weather station locations, Scandinavia disappears under a mass of dots!. The rest is much more sparsely observed...

    #NMM2024

  24. 💭 Imagine a platform through which people all over the world can access and interact with climate data and draw conclusions for their own individual contexts.

    This is exactly what #EVE is trying to build. In connection with different #ClimateModels developed by #CORDEX, this platform could become an important tool to drive #Decision-Making to reduce the negative effects that #ClimateChange will have on our younger generations 💫

    Find out more: nextgems-h2020.eu/the-joint-ve

    #nextGEMS #H2020 #Cinea

  25. 💭 Imagine a platform through which people all over the world can access and interact with climate data and draw conclusions for their own individual contexts.

    This is exactly what #EVE is trying to build. In connection with different #ClimateModels developed by #CORDEX, this platform could become an important tool to drive #Decision-Making to reduce the negative effects that #ClimateChange will have on our younger generations 💫

    Find out more: nextgems-h2020.eu/the-joint-ve

    #nextGEMS #H2020 #Cinea

  26. Who are Scientific Programmers? 🧐

    In this video, @MPI_Meteo portrays the essential work undertaken by #ScientificProgrammers: building and running #ClimateModels. 🌐 Without them, projects like #nextGEMS wouldn't be possible. Interested?

    👩‍💻 The MPI is hiring 3 highly motivated scientific programmers, and you could be one of them! More details: buff.ly/3zwfzdn

    📽 Watch the video to learn more about the role scientific programmers play in #ClimateModelling
    buff.ly/3LbSNtS

  27. #ClimateCatastrophe #Glaciers #SeaLevelRise #Antarctica

    (2/n)

    ...catastrophe for the world’s coastal communities."

    "....we have solid observations of what is going on.”

    "In a separate study, also published Monday, researchers from the #BritishAntarcticSurvey looked at the reasons for the record low levels of sea ice surrounding Antarctica last year...used #ClimateModels to predict the potential speed of recovery from such extreme sea ice loss and found that 👉even after two decades,...

  28. As some of you might already know, #hackathons are a vital part of the development and application of the #climatemodels used in the #nextGEMS project. 💎

    We've launched a new section on our website, consolidating information about the importance of hackathons and past hacking events, which you can easily access via this link: nextgems-h2020.eu/hackathon/ 🌐

    #collaboration #ICON #IFS #EarthSystemModelling #H2020 @cinea_EU

  29. So this is the timeline that will be steering everything we do for the next few years...

    #ClimateModels #CMIP7

  30. @marion_grau

    This one?

    "WORLD VIEW
    19 March 2024

    #ClimateModels can’t explain 2023’s huge heat anomaly — we could be in uncharted territory

    Taking into account all known factors, the planet warmed 0.2 °C more last year than climate scientists expected. More and better data are urgently needed.

    By #GavinSchmidt"

    Via #nature

    nature.com/articles/d41586-024

    @MichaelEMann @guardian