#weatherprediction — Public Fediverse posts

I turned a Raspberry Pi into a tiny weather intelligence powerhouse

https://kemal.yaylali.uk/i-turned-a-raspberry-pi-into-a-tiny-weather-intelligence-powerhouse/

I have a question 4 meteorologists here. Weather prediction seems way less reliable lately. For example 2 different well-known websites list temps 10 degrees apart. Even within a single website the home page says one temp but the hourly says something 7-10 degrees different for the exact same time. Last week a heavy rain shower popped up that wasn't shown on any website. What is going on? Is it lack of weather instruments due to defunding?something else? #weather #meteorology #WeatherPrediction

🚜 The Farmers' Almanac bids a tearful #goodbye by putting on a grand #circus of ads, subscriptions, and calendars you'd never use. Clearly, they're hoping you'll get lost in the clutter and accidentally buy something. 🎪 Who knew predicting the weather required this much spam? 🌧️📅
https://www.farmersalmanac.com/fond-farewell-from-farmers-almanac #FarmersAlmanac #AdSpam #WeatherPrediction #ClutteredCalendars #HackerNews #ngated

Basics of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP):

1. THE HORIZONTAL MOMENTUM EQUATION:
\[
\frac{d\mathbf{V}}{dt} + f\hat{k} \times \mathbf{V} = -\nabla \phi + \frac{\sigma}{p_s} \frac{\partial \phi}{\partial \sigma} \nabla p_s + \mathbf{F}
\]

2. THE CONTINUITY EQUATION:
\[
\frac{\partial p_s}{\partial t} + \nabla \cdot (p_s \mathbf{V}) + \frac{\partial}{\partial \sigma}(p_s \dot{\sigma}) = 0
\]

3. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY EQUATION:
\[
\frac{1}{R} \frac{d}{dt} \left[ \sigma \frac{\partial \phi}{\partial \sigma} \right] + \frac{RT}{C_p p} \left[ p_s \dot{\sigma} + \sigma\dot{p_s} \right] = -Q
\]

4. HYDROSTATIC EQUATION:
\[
\frac{\partial \phi}{\partial \sigma} = -\frac{RT_v}{\sigma}
\]

5. SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCY EQUATION:
\[\displaystyle
\frac{\partial p_s}{\partial t} = -\int_{0}^{1} \nabla\cdot (p_s \mathbf{V}) \, d\sigma
\]

6. MOISTURE EQUATION:
\[\displaystyle
\frac{\partial}{\partial t} (p_s q) + \nabla\cdot (p_s q \mathbf{V}) + \frac{\partial}{\partial \sigma} (p_s q \dot{\sigma}) = p_s S
\]

The six primary unknowns are: \(\mathbf{V}\) (horizontal wind velocity), \(p_s\) (surface pressure), \(T\) (temperature), \(q\) (specific humidity or moisture), \(\phi\) (geopotential), and \(\dot{\sigma}\) (sigma velocity or vertical velocity in \(\sigma\)-coordinates).

#NWP #Weather #NumericalWeatherPrediction #Meteorology #Climate #ClimateScience #Earth #EarthScience #ClimateChange #ClimateSciences #Science #WeatherPrediction #Humidity #Moisture #Pressure #Velocity #SurfacePressure #HydrostaticEquation #WeatherPrediction #Ocean #Atmosphere #AOS #ClimateDynamics #WeatherDynamics #Geopotential #SigmaVelocity #VerticalVelocity #MoistureEquation #Thermodynamics #Dynamics #NavierStokes

Convective storm detection (Storm 🌪️)

Convective storm detection is the meteorological observation, and short-term prediction, of deep moist convection. DMC describes atmospheric conditions producing single or clusters of large vertical extension clouds ranging from cumulus congestus to cumulonimbus, the latter producing thunderstorms associa...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convective_storm_detection

#ConvectiveStormDetection #Storm #Tornado #StormChasing #RadarMeteorology #WeatherPrediction

Researchers unveil Aardvark, an AI-powered weather prediction system that uses thousands of times less computing power and delivers results much faster than current methods. A game-changer for #AI and #WeatherTech! 🌦️ #AI #MachineLearning #WeatherPrediction #Innovation

Automated weather map display (Cartography 🗺️)

An automated weather map display shows updated weather maps or other images for public viewing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automated_weather_map_display

#AutomatedWeatherMapDisplay #Cartography #WeatherPrediction #Visualization

"NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, NOAA Physical Science Laboratory, The Cooperative Institute for Earth Systems Research in Environmental Sciences and Data Science, and NOAA Office of Science and Technology all provided financial support for the workshop."

An intricate apparatus and national asset now being destroyed by obsessed simpletons.

#WeatherPrediction

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/106/2/BAMS-D-24-0062.1.xml

DeepMind AI predicts weather more accurately than existing forecasts

https://flip.it/vvRT2V

#Weather #WeatherPrediction #AI #LLM #Google #noaa

Climate Change Key Driver Of Catastrophic Impacts Of Hurricane Helene That Devastated Both Coastal And Inland Communities [technical report]
--
http://alturl.com/5n38k <-- shared technical report
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #hurricane #hurricanehelene #spatiotemporal #risk #hazard #naturaldisaster #impact #climatechange #precipitation #seasurfacetemperature #Appalachia #damage #loss #infrastructure #deaths #rainfall #precipitation #flood #flooding #engineeringgeology #erosion #massmovement #mudslides #landslides #debrisflows #disastermanagement #prediction #mitigation #climatemodels #model #modeling #spatiotemporal #IRIS #winds #extremeweather #weather #storm #humanimpacts #costs #economy #SST #warning #weatherprediction #dams #reservoirs #loss #lossoflife

More than 40% of all tropical activity in a typical season occurs after September 10, so there’s plenty of precedent for storms 🌪️ https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/06/weather/hurricane-season-atlantic-storms-climate/index.html

#PolarisDawn #WeatherPrediction

Analysis-Ready, Cloud Optimized ERA5
--
https://github.com/google-research/arco-era5 <-- git hub repository
--
I am trying to understand all the technical details and use case(s) for this project, but I will get there – but thought others might find it of interest..
#GIS #spatial #mapping #remotesensing #ARCO #ERA5 #global #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #code #model #modeling #visualisation #global #GitHub #opensource #hourly #GoogleCloudPublicDatasets #climate #climatechange #ECMWF #atmosphere #weather #extremeweather #NWP #weatherprediction #numericalweatherprediction #meteorology #interpolation #preprocessing #dataprovenance

The rain forecast has been extremely unreliable lately. 100% predicted even hours away, then nothing.

I think a lot of weather models take past weather patterns into account, and that just doesn't work in a world with climate change.

#climatechange #weather #arkansasweather #weatherpatterns #weatherprediction #meteorology #climatecollapse

GraphCast - AI Model For Faster And More Accurate Global Weather Forecasting [Google]
--
https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/graphcast-ai-model-for-faster-and-more-accurate-global-weather-forecasting/ <-- shared technical article
--
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi2336 <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #GraphCast #Google #GoogleDeepMind #weather #weatherforecast #weatherforecasting #extremeweather #model #modeling #numericmodeling #risk #hazard #global #climatechange #AI #artificalintelligence #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #cyclones #hurricanes #atmosphericriver #flood #floodrisk #flooding #precipitation #rainfall #heatwave #extremeheat #extremetemperatures #weatherprediction #opensource #humanimpacts #security
@Google @GoogleDeepMind

Our #ECMWF machine learning weather forecast is public! 🌦️

Right on time for the weekend, too!

It's an alpha version for now, because the whole team is working hard to wrestle every iota of performance from our graph NN #AIFS.

But even as an alpha version, it's playing in the big leagues.

I am so excited to finally share this with you! 🚀

I'll link our blog post and the forecast below. Make sure to share this with your colleagues and machine-learning-curious friends!

Still can't believe how far these people have made it in this short time, running four machine learning models operationally, with one developed in-house.

The Blog: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/aifs-blog/2023/ECMWF-unveils-alpha-version-of-new-ML-model

Your Weekend forecast: https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets=%7B%22Product%20type%22%3A%5B%22Experimental%3A%20AIFS%22%5D%7D

More to come soon!

#MachineLearning #AI #WeatherPrediction #MLOps

I was wondering why #BigTech companies were pushing into #WeatherPrediction and #ClimateModelling, but this assessment by a Swiss official seems plausible.
"Big Tech’s arrival on the weather forecasting scene is not purely based on scientific curiosity. [...] Our economies are becoming increasingly dependent on weather, especially with the rise of renewable energy. [...] Tech companies’ businesses are also linked to weather"
https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/07/11/1076067/weather-forecasting-is-having-an-ai-moment/

The rise of machine learning in weather forecasting! ⛈

We wrote a big science blog about the last year in AI & weather!

How do we approach these rapid developments by NVIDIA, Huawei and even Google DeepMind?!

Read about the last year in the context of AI for weather and what's ahead. We at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts put a bit of work in giving a really nice overview and running all the new open-source models for your convenience!

Read the blog: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/science-blog/2023/rise-machine-learning-weather-forecasting

Authors are: Matthew Chantry, Zied Ben Bouallègue, Linus Magnusson, Michael Maier-Gerber, and Jesper Dramsch.

#WeatherPrediction #MachineLearning #python #DeepLearning #kaggle #career #tech #science #google #deepmind #nvidia #huawei

Flood Guidance Statement [modeling & mapping, UK]
--
https://www.rgs.org/geography/geovisualisation/flood-guidance-statement/ <-- shared article
--
#GIS #spatial #model #weather #weatherprediction #extremeweather #visualisation #model #modeling #information #firstresponders #firstresponder #emergencyresponse #emergencypreparedness #emergencymanagement #planning #preparation #information #dissemination #water #climate #climatechange #flood #flooding #environment #data #civil #team #event #events #publicsafety #preparedness #rainfall #predication #coastal #groundwater #surfacewater #England #Wales #UK #county #probability #probabilities #responders #gischat

reading my mystical weather divination cards and i am hopeful for rain tonight & the next few days!

#FingersCrossed #WeatherPrediction #portents

#SabineHossenfelder - How #Chaos Control Is Changing The World

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1-cwamhwag&ab_channel=SabineHossenfelder

#Science #Physics #Math #Maths #Mathematics #ChaosTheory #ChaosControl #Pertutbation #Perturbations #PerturbationTheory #Statistics #Predictability #Probability #MachineLearning #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #Astronomy #Astrophysics #OrbitalMechanics #SolarSystem #Lorenz #EdwardLorenz #Weather #WeatherPrediction #WeatherForecasting #LorenzModel #AdaptiveSystems