#nwp — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #nwp, aggregated by home.social.
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My newsletter article on what we've done to improve your weather forecasts is now online: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/187/news/coupled-data-assimilation-50r1
This was supposed to appear *before* things were implemented last month, so it's all now in place!
Please take a look for the cutest cartoon scientist you'll see today...
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Ab sofort bis zum 25. Juni können Sie Kommentare und Anregungen zum Entwurf des Nationalen Wiederherstellungsplans (NWP) über die Online-Beteiligungsplattform des Bundesumweltministeriums abgeben: https://beteiligung.bundesumweltministerium.de/de/nationaler-wiederherstellungsplan
Foto: PeopleImages via Getty Image
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The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has published a critique of ML by Leonard A Smith and Alan Thorpe. It compares the role and value of physics-based and statistical models in weather and climate forecasting, and tempers the ebulition around AI/ML.
The article content is accessible to non-specialists in either ML or meteorology.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-25-0214.1/BAMS-D-25-0214.1.pdf
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Happy to report the earliest (and final) stream for #ORAS6 has entered production. Just in the spinup period now, but we have some #reanalysis data valid in 1944 already. Now just to be patient until this reaches 1993 where the already produced stream awaits...
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BIG news from #ECMWF: a portable version of our global forecasting model is now open source! Development of #IFS started in 1987 and just a year before entering its 4th decade it is now available to all.
This continues our journey that started a few years ago, when we made a first and growing number of several key model components available.
See the news article for more details: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2026/openifs-open-source
Code repository: https://github.com/ecmwf-ifs/openifs
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ECMWF annual seminar 2026 is on "Advancing the assimilation of Earth system observations with new methodology and Machine Learning"
Registration is open:
https://events.ecmwf.int/event/513/overview -
@tinoeberl #ECMWF recognized “AI” #NWP is accurate for large scale ~2,000 km features only. Let’s put some science based constraints to the “AI” hype.
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#EUMETSAT via #businesswire:
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Revolutionärer Metop-SGA1 überträgt bereits Instrumentendaten
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"Weniger als drei Wochen nach dem Start von Metop-Satellit A1 der zweiten Generation (Metop-SGA1) am 13. August überträgt der Satellit bereits Daten von zwei seiner sechs Instrumente."https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250902406888/de
https://www.eumetsat.int/revolutionary-metop-sga1-already-transmitting-instrument-data
2.9.2025
#EO #Erdbeobachtung #ESA #Europa #NWP #MetOpSG #MetOpSGA1 #MWS #Raumfahrt #RO #Satelliten #SpaceFlight #Wettervorhersage #Wettersatellit
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Machine Learning is making a big impression in Numerical Weather Prediction these days. However, explicitly physics-based models still outperform AI models when it comes to extreme events. #meteorology #nwp
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.15724
Hey sometimes my LinkedIn feed isn't all Facebook for office grunts.
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Basics of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP):
1. THE HORIZONTAL MOMENTUM EQUATION:
\[
\frac{d\mathbf{V}}{dt} + f\hat{k} \times \mathbf{V} = -\nabla \phi + \frac{\sigma}{p_s} \frac{\partial \phi}{\partial \sigma} \nabla p_s + \mathbf{F}
\]2. THE CONTINUITY EQUATION:
\[
\frac{\partial p_s}{\partial t} + \nabla \cdot (p_s \mathbf{V}) + \frac{\partial}{\partial \sigma}(p_s \dot{\sigma}) = 0
\]3. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY EQUATION:
\[
\frac{1}{R} \frac{d}{dt} \left[ \sigma \frac{\partial \phi}{\partial \sigma} \right] + \frac{RT}{C_p p} \left[ p_s \dot{\sigma} + \sigma\dot{p_s} \right] = -Q
\]4. HYDROSTATIC EQUATION:
\[
\frac{\partial \phi}{\partial \sigma} = -\frac{RT_v}{\sigma}
\]5. SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCY EQUATION:
\[\displaystyle
\frac{\partial p_s}{\partial t} = -\int_{0}^{1} \nabla\cdot (p_s \mathbf{V}) \, d\sigma
\]6. MOISTURE EQUATION:
\[\displaystyle
\frac{\partial}{\partial t} (p_s q) + \nabla\cdot (p_s q \mathbf{V}) + \frac{\partial}{\partial \sigma} (p_s q \dot{\sigma}) = p_s S
\]The six primary unknowns are: \(\mathbf{V}\) (horizontal wind velocity), \(p_s\) (surface pressure), \(T\) (temperature), \(q\) (specific humidity or moisture), \(\phi\) (geopotential), and \(\dot{\sigma}\) (sigma velocity or vertical velocity in \(\sigma\)-coordinates).
#NWP #Weather #NumericalWeatherPrediction #Meteorology #Climate #ClimateScience #Earth #EarthScience #ClimateChange #ClimateSciences #Science #WeatherPrediction #Humidity #Moisture #Pressure #Velocity #SurfacePressure #HydrostaticEquation #WeatherPrediction #Ocean #Atmosphere #AOS #ClimateDynamics #WeatherDynamics #Geopotential #SigmaVelocity #VerticalVelocity #MoistureEquation #Thermodynamics #Dynamics #NavierStokes
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A largely cloud free satellite image of the central Northwest Passage shows that the prior melt ponds along the southern route have drained, and that melt ponds have now formed on the northern route through McClure Strait:
https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2025/05/the-northwest-passage-in-2025/#Jun-22
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"Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin (CREDIT)" (Schreck et al, 2024)
* Community effort for making foundation models for numerical weather prediction more accessible for research
* some guidance for training and running models of different complexity
* 6hr prediction model snapshots on huggingface -
This in @financialtimes.com about astronomical valuations in #AI made me wonder: Google WeatherNext + other #NWP #MachineLearning have cost hundreds of millions, imagine what we could we have done with that money in national #weather + #climate services (who in any case made the training data)?
Who needs revenue when you’re ... -
↩️ @metoffice
A new #MachineLearning model for weather prediction – FastNet - developed by the partnership – is showing comparable results to @metoffice Global #NWP system.
This represents the next step in weather prediction.
https://piped.video/1T_Oy9yVQ3k
https://bit.ly/3Ze0E2m🧵2/3
🐦🔗 https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1831642106357547508
🕐 05/09 11:34 -
Analysis-Ready, Cloud Optimized ERA5
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https://github.com/google-research/arco-era5 <-- git hub repository
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I am trying to understand all the technical details and use case(s) for this project, but I will get there – but thought others might find it of interest..
#GIS #spatial #mapping #remotesensing #ARCO #ERA5 #global #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #code #model #modeling #visualisation #global #GitHub #opensource #hourly #GoogleCloudPublicDatasets #climate #climatechange #ECMWF #atmosphere #weather #extremeweather #NWP #weatherprediction #numericalweatherprediction #meteorology #interpolation #preprocessing #dataprovenance -
Nerd alert: Tropical Tidbits now has some parameters from ECMWF AI Forecast System available. Anyone know anything about this AIFS?
#meteorology #NWP
@Climatologist49 @ingalls -
The latest weekly Canadian Ice Service sea ice chart shows that the northern route through the Northwest Passage is now navigable without coming across anything worse than 2/10 concentration ice:
https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2023/06/the-northwest-passage-in-2023/#Aug-31
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According to the latest weekly Canadian Ice Service chart, the northern through the Northwest Passage via the Parry Channel and McClure Strait is now "open" to any adventurous captain willing to try ploughing through an area of 5/10 concentration #SeaIce:
https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2023/06/the-northwest-passage-in-2023/#Aug-25
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Two more "pleasure craft" have recently passed through the Bellot Strait in the heart of the #Northwest Passage.
Admiral Bellingshausen and Skokica:
https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2023/06/the-northwest-passage-in-2023/#Aug-18
Plus two kayaks!
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In case this weekend's posts on the lessons to take away from this summer, and the future direction of climate science and climate services have caught your interest, you might also be interested in one of the new open positions in our group at DMI - I summarise them in the post below!
#Fedijobs #AI #ML #ClimateServices #ClimateAdaptation #ClimateJobs #NWP #climateJustice
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The Northwest Passage through the Canadian #Arctic Archipelago looks as though it will be "open" for "pleasure craft" earlier than "normal" this year.
The most substantial area of #SeaIce remaining on the southern route is in the Franklin Strait:
https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2023/06/the-northwest-passage-in-2023/#Jul-23
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In searching for something else, I stumble across @reuterbal 's
epic thread on #Loki- no not *that* Loki, but an ingenious sounding source translation package for
#Fortran to allow the #ECMWF #IFS model to run on GPU's.What a cool piece of software...
Worth a deep read for #NWP + #ClimateModel nerds...
