#climatesensitivity — Public Fediverse posts

❗ Model Reveals Hidden Warming Layer Above Stratocumulus Clouds❗

Understanding #stratocumulus #clouds is key to predicting #ClimateSensitivity. MPI-M scientist Kenneth Chan and his colleagues discovered a previously unresolved "W-Layer," a thin (just 5 meters!) warming layer above stratocumulus cloud tops. ⛅ It was previously unknown because it is too thin for most simulations to resolve! Their discovery reveals a blind spot in current stratocumulus simulations. 🔍

📖 https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD045740

❗ Model Reveals Hidden Warming Layer Above Stratocumulus Clouds❗

Understanding #stratocumulus #clouds is key to predicting #ClimateSensitivity. MPI-M scientist Kenneth Chan and his colleagues discovered a previously unresolved "W-Layer," a thin (just 5 meters!) warming layer above stratocumulus cloud tops. ⛅ It was previously unknown because it is too thin for most simulations to resolve! Their discovery reveals a blind spot in current stratocumulus simulations. 🔍

📖 https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD045740

❗ Model Reveals Hidden Warming Layer Above Stratocumulus Clouds❗

Understanding #stratocumulus #clouds is key to predicting #ClimateSensitivity. MPI-M scientist Kenneth Chan and his colleagues discovered a previously unresolved "W-Layer," a thin (just 5 meters!) warming layer above stratocumulus cloud tops. ⛅ It was previously unknown because it is too thin for most simulations to resolve! Their discovery reveals a blind spot in current stratocumulus simulations. 🔍

📖 https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD045740

❗ Model Reveals Hidden Warming Layer Above Stratocumulus Clouds❗

Understanding #stratocumulus #clouds is key to predicting #ClimateSensitivity. MPI-M scientist Kenneth Chan and his colleagues discovered a previously unresolved "W-Layer," a thin (just 5 meters!) warming layer above stratocumulus cloud tops. ⛅ It was previously unknown because it is too thin for most simulations to resolve! Their discovery reveals a blind spot in current stratocumulus simulations. 🔍

📖 https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD045740

❗ Model Reveals Hidden Warming Layer Above Stratocumulus Clouds❗

Understanding #stratocumulus #clouds is key to predicting #ClimateSensitivity. MPI-M scientist Kenneth Chan and his colleagues discovered a previously unresolved "W-Layer," a thin (just 5 meters!) warming layer above stratocumulus cloud tops. ⛅ It was previously unknown because it is too thin for most simulations to resolve! Their discovery reveals a blind spot in current stratocumulus simulations. 🔍

📖 https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD045740

Paul Beckwith, a climate science educator, goes through James Hansen's recent warnings about a coming "Super El Niño".

This video (24:48) assumes a small amount of background in math and science, enough to read time/temperature graphs, but is generally quite accessible in its explanations. He walks through a lot of good stuff like how the El Niño / La Niña cycle works, what some of the "forcings" are that are driving some of these things, why things like aerosols matter, what different models show, what the consensus predictions have been and why Hansen's predicting something substantively stronger.

It's a pretty worrisome set of things, but Hansen has been an important voice in the climate conversation, and I think Beckwith's presentation is pretty level—trying to just walk through the information dispassionately in a way that can help you understand the science part.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tP3VQk3mIgQ

Note: Notwithstanding the use of em dash, this post was written by a human.

#climate #ElNiño #ElNino #SuperElNiño #SuperElNino #ClimateModels #ClimateModeling #warming #heat #GlobalWarming #aerosol #aerosols #OceanWarming #ClimateSensitivity #ClimateScience #science #co2 #IPCC #forcing #Greenhouse #JamesHansen #PaulBeckwith #video #YouTube

Paul Beckwith, a climate science educator, goes through James Hansen's recent warnings about a coming "Super El Niño".

This video (24:48) assumes a small amount of background in math and science, enough to read time/temperature graphs, but is generally quite accessible in its explanations. He walks through a lot of good stuff like how the El Niño / La Niña cycle works, what some of the "forcings" are that are driving some of these things, why things like aerosols matter, what different models show, what the consensus predictions have been and why Hansen's predicting something substantively stronger.

It's a pretty worrisome set of things, but Hansen has been an important voice in the climate conversation, and I think Beckwith's presentation is pretty level—trying to just walk through the information dispassionately in a way that can help you understand the science part.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tP3VQk3mIgQ

Note: Notwithstanding the use of em dash, this post was written by a human.

#climate #ElNiño #ElNino #SuperElNiño #SuperElNino #ClimateModels #ClimateModeling #warming #heat #GlobalWarming #aerosol #aerosols #OceanWarming #ClimateSensitivity #ClimateScience #science #co2 #IPCC #forcing #Greenhouse #JamesHansen #PaulBeckwith #video #YouTube

Paul Beckwith, a climate science educator, goes through James Hansen's recent warnings about a coming "Super El Niño".

This video (24:48) assumes a small amount of background in math and science, enough to read time/temperature graphs, but is generally quite accessible in its explanations. He walks through a lot of good stuff like how the El Niño / La Niña cycle works, what some of the "forcings" are that are driving some of these things, why things like aerosols matter, what different models show, what the consensus predictions have been and why Hansen's predicting something substantively stronger.

It's a pretty worrisome set of things, but Hansen has been an important voice in the climate conversation, and I think Beckwith's presentation is pretty level—trying to just walk through the information dispassionately in a way that can help you understand the science part.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tP3VQk3mIgQ

Note: Notwithstanding the use of em dash, this post was written by a human.

#climate #ElNiño #ElNino #SuperElNiño #SuperElNino #ClimateModels #ClimateModeling #warming #heat #GlobalWarming #aerosol #aerosols #OceanWarming #ClimateSensitivity #ClimateScience #science #co2 #IPCC #forcing #Greenhouse #JamesHansen #PaulBeckwith #video #YouTube

Paul Beckwith, a climate science educator, goes through James Hansen's recent warnings about a coming "Super El Niño".

This video (24:48) assumes a small amount of background in math and science, enough to read time/temperature graphs, but is generally quite accessible in its explanations. He walks through a lot of good stuff like how the El Niño / La Niña cycle works, what some of the "forcings" are that are driving some of these things, why things like aerosols matter, what different models show, what the consensus predictions have been and why Hansen's predicting something substantively stronger.

It's a pretty worrisome set of things, but Hansen has been an important voice in the climate conversation, and I think Beckwith's presentation is pretty level—trying to just walk through the information dispassionately in a way that can help you understand the science part.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tP3VQk3mIgQ

Note: Notwithstanding the use of em dash, this post was written by a human.

#climate #ElNiño #ElNino #SuperElNiño #SuperElNino #ClimateModels #ClimateModeling #warming #heat #GlobalWarming #aerosol #aerosols #OceanWarming #ClimateSensitivity #ClimateScience #science #co2 #IPCC #forcing #Greenhouse #JamesHansen #PaulBeckwith #video #YouTube

Paul Beckwith, a climate science educator, goes through James Hansen's recent warnings about a coming "Super El Niño".

This video (24:48) assumes a small amount of background in math and science, enough to read time/temperature graphs, but is generally quite accessible in its explanations. He walks through a lot of good stuff like how the El Niño / La Niña cycle works, what some of the "forcings" are that are driving some of these things, why things like aerosols matter, what different models show, what the consensus predictions have been and why Hansen's predicting something substantively stronger.

It's a pretty worrisome set of things, but Hansen has been an important voice in the climate conversation, and I think Beckwith's presentation is pretty level—trying to just walk through the information dispassionately in a way that can help you understand the science part.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tP3VQk3mIgQ

Note: Notwithstanding the use of em dash, this post was written by a human.

#climate #ElNiño #ElNino #SuperElNiño #SuperElNino #ClimateModels #ClimateModeling #warming #heat #GlobalWarming #aerosol #aerosols #OceanWarming #ClimateSensitivity #ClimateScience #science #co2 #IPCC #forcing #Greenhouse #JamesHansen #PaulBeckwith #video #YouTube

The growth of #RhododendronAureum and its precipitation sensitivity are more influenced by #Elevation, co-regulated by #SoilProperties and plant size traits in alpine tundra; Soil conditions and leaf economic traits influence temperature sensitivity.

#ClimateChange | #DwarfEvergreenShrubs | #ClimateSensitivity | #PlantFunctionalTraits

https://doi.org/10.1093/jpe/rtaf181

The growth of #RhododendronAureum and its precipitation sensitivity are more influenced by #Elevation, co-regulated by #SoilProperties and plant size traits in alpine tundra; Soil conditions and leaf economic traits influence temperature sensitivity.

#ClimateChange | #DwarfEvergreenShrubs | #ClimateSensitivity | #PlantFunctionalTraits

https://doi.org/10.1093/jpe/rtaf181

【🎉Latest accepted article】
#Elevation gradient modulates the effects of herbaceous encroachment on the long-term growth trends and #ClimateSensitivity of Rhododendron aureum in alpine tun

#ClimateChange | #DwarfEvergreenShrubs | #SoilProperties | #PlantFunctionalTraits

https://doi.org/10.1093/jpe/rtaf181

🚨 New publication!
🎓Our IMPRS-ESM doctoral candidate Doseok Lee just published his first paper in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science together with Hanjun Kim and #MPIM Director Sarah Kang.

💧☁️ Enhanced clear-sky shortwave absorption by water vapor accelerates #AMOC recovery 🌊 → higher long-term #ClimateSensitivity.

👉 Read here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-025-01169-8
#ClimateScience #IMPRS_ESM #PhDLife

What is Past is Prologue:
#Paleoclimate constraints on #ECS Equilibrium #ClimateSensitivity #GreenhouseGas sensitivity of Earth's #Climate

First of 3 papers this summer.

My career trajectory has been building towards using past climate archives to narrow the possibilities of future climate. But it is HARD. And computationally expensive.

The next two papers of this project will rule out some high and low sensitivity simulations using Past Climate (Proxy) archives and Data Assimilation. Those should be out in preprint in the next couple of months.

We hope this project (first to constrain earth climate sensitivity using coupled atmosphere-ocean earth system models) will be streamlined in the future and applied widely.

https://essopenarchive.org/users/921675/articles/1297441-on-the-sensitivity-of-climate-sensitivity-in-a-coupled-climate-model

The third possible cause is cause for concern:

"If the cloud-related albedo decline was caused not solely by internal variability, the 2023 extra heat may be here to stay and Earth’s climate sensitivity may be closer to the upper range of current estimates."

#ClimateSensitivity
#EarthAlbedo

https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/12/new-study-blames-recent-spike-in-global-warming-on-lack-of-low-clouds/

The climate of the world of #GameOfThrones
https://scholar.google.de/scholar?cluster=11346321411393038083&hl=en&as_sdt=0,5
by Samwell #Tarly 2017.
Already has 4 citations too. And openaccess!
Complete with many model output maps and acknowledgments: Gilly, who did all the lit search in the Citadel's library but wouldn't be co-author "in a jounal edited by kneelers". 😁
Screenshots show seasonal temperature, precip, hPa and wind,
and the other one is a modelled map with #climate sensitivity of 2.1C

Scholar-google knows of 2 PDF versions, one "is in some form of Elvish, I can't read".
#paleoclimate #climatesensitivity #GoT #SamwellTarly

"Climate sensitivity is a number that roughly speaking tells us how fast climate change will get worse. A few years ago, after various software improvements, a bunch of climate models began having a much higher climate sensitivity than previously. Climate scientists have come up with reasons for why to ignore this. I think it's a bad idea to ignore this."
-- Sabine Hossenfelder

#Climate #ClimateSensitivity #ClimateChange

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4S9sDyooxf4

#ClimateSensitivity is a number that roughly speaking tells us how fast #ClimateChange will get worse. A few years ago, after various software improvements, a bunch of climate models began having a much higher climate sensitivity than previously.

"...And, no. AI isn't going to solve the problem, because the problem isn't that we're missing a technological solution, the problem is that we can't agree to implement the solutions that we have."

@skdh
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4S9sDyooxf4

Zeke Hausfather's conclusion:

""Arguments over ECS are distractions. Whether it’s 3C or 5C is a bit like whether a firing squad has 6 rifleman or 10. It’s bad either way. Ongoing research will continue to sharpen our understanding of ECS, but it won't change the immediate task before us: the rapid decarbonization of our society. This remains our paramount challenge, regardless of the precise severity of the climate threat."

#ECS
#ClimateSensitivity
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/revisiting-the-hot-model-problem

Climate sensitivity is a number that roughly speaking tells us how fast climate change will get worse.

A few years ago, after various software improvements, a bunch of climate models began having a much higher climate sensitivity.

Climate scientists have come up with reasons for why to ignore this. They were probably wrong to do so 🤔

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4S9sDyooxf4

If you are prone to depression when reading less than hopeful new information then you might want to skip this one.

#ClimateChrisis #ClimateSensitivity #GlobalWarming

#SabineHossenfelder on why #ClimateChange worries her, particularly with reference to '#ClimateSensitivity'

And I am with her on this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4S9sDyooxf4

#Science #Meteorology #ClimateScience #GlobalWarming #Climate #ElNino #ElNina #ECS #CMIP #HotModel #HotModels

#MPI-Scientists in Paris 🇫🇷 at CFMIP-GASS:
A joint conference between Cloud Feedback Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) and Global Atmospheric System Studies (GASS) is taking place this week. Thankfully hosted by the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) at the Sorbonne University. The focus is on #Clouds, #Convection, #Circulation, and #ClimateSensitivity. Even though one week is much too short, the participants are motivated and very engaged in the talks, posters and breakout sessions.

@anlomedad you've asked a very simple question with a rather complicated answer!
I guess you're asking about transient as opposed to equilibrium #ClimateSensitivity (what we sometimes just call #TCS Vs #ECS)

This explainer from @carbonbrief's @hausfath is probably the easiest way to answer this question.
It's... complicated. And a lot of ink has been spilled trying to answer it.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-scientists-estimate-climate-sensitivity/

Good couple of #blogposts by @kenrice on a recent paper by #JamesHansen et al I'd missed about #ClimateSensitivity.
I tend to agree about the #IceSheet point, it's hard to extrapolate #ECS from #palaeoclimate on #milankovitch timescales because the whole world was *very* different place

https://fediscience.org/@kenrice/109672854728148311

Another #OpenAccess feature from this week's @SkepticalScience New Research sieve: a paper with a provocative finding about climate sensitivity.

Time-delayed exploding sensitivity, so to speak.

#ClimateSensitivity
#ClimateScience
#ClimateChange

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2022.0483

Major study rules out super-high and low climate sensitivity to CO₂ - Enlarge (credit: Dan / Flickr)
One of the most important numbers in climate science is 3°C. This ... more: https://arstechnica.com/?p=1693462 #climatesensitivity #climatechange #science

Good couple of #blogposts by @kenrice on a recent paper by #JamesHansen et al I'd missed about #ClimateSensitivity.
I tend to agree about the #IceSheet point, it's hard to extrapolate #ECS from #palaeoclimate on #milankovitch timescales because the whole world was *very* different place

https://fediscience.org/@kenrice/109672854728148311

Good couple of #blogposts by @kenrice on a recent paper by #JamesHansen et al I'd missed about #ClimateSensitivity.
I tend to agree about the #IceSheet point, it's hard to extrapolate #ECS from #palaeoclimate on #milankovitch timescales because the whole world was *very* different place

https://fediscience.org/@kenrice/109672854728148311

Good couple of #blogposts by @kenrice on a recent paper by #JamesHansen et al I'd missed about #ClimateSensitivity.
I tend to agree about the #IceSheet point, it's hard to extrapolate #ECS from #palaeoclimate on #milankovitch timescales because the whole world was *very* different place

https://fediscience.org/@kenrice/109672854728148311

Good couple of #blogposts by @kenrice on a recent paper by #JamesHansen et al I'd missed about #ClimateSensitivity.
I tend to agree about the #IceSheet point, it's hard to extrapolate #ECS from #palaeoclimate on #milankovitch timescales because the whole world was *very* different place

https://fediscience.org/@kenrice/109672854728148311