#overshoot — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #overshoot, aggregated by home.social.
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Why community matters when preparing for the Great Unraveling
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#CCCR2026 #Overshoot #AcceleratingWarming
Canada’s Changing Climate Report 2026
03 Sept. 2026"The warming and associated changes in climate in Canada are effectively irreversible."
#climate #ClimateScience #climatechange #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis
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#PaulBeckwith video lecture & literature review #Overshoot #AcceleratingWarming
Paul on the newly released #Canada #climatechange Report 2026
#climate #ClimateScience #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis
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#UN #UnitedNations report #Overshoot #AcceleratingWarming
02 Sept. 2026
Limiting Overshoot - Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return
"exceedance of 1.5°C is now widely assessed as unavoidable"
https://www.unep.org/resources/limiting-overshoot-navigating-exceedance
#climate #ClimateScience #climatechange #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #polycrisis
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@paulbeckwith
#PaulBeckwith video lecture & literature review #UN #Overshoot #AcceleratingWarmingPaul on the #UnitedNations reporting we failed 1.5°C
#ClimateScience #climatechange #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #ExtremeWeather #polycrisis
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Are the requirements of climate policy even correctly assessed? 🧵
The United Nations Environment Programme #UNEP pretends to be "policy relevant" but their executive summary avoids naming activities that cause emissions.
"The UNEP report could have just said that death and suffering will increase until we stop forcing the climate system, and that if we want to reduce this death and suffering, we had better start figuring out how to implement transformative climate change adaptation alongside the rapid phase out of fossil fuels and reform of food production systems.
"Them’s the facts. If policymakers deem them not relevant, then I'm sorry but we don’t have any others."
James Dyke: https://www.technosphere.earth/overshoot-should-mark-the-end-of-the-road-for-supposed-policy-relevance/
#assetStranding #climatePolicy #climateChange #policy #overshoot
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UN-Report: Überschreiten von 1,5 Grad unvermeidlich – und nun?
„Es gibt keine guten Szenarien oberhalb von 1,5 Grad“, erklärt #UNEP-Exekutivdirektor Inger Andersen. „Jeder Bruchteil eines Grades zählt und jedes Jahr im #Overshoot erhöht die #Klimarisiken sowie die Gefahr irreversibler Verluste.“ Schon jetzt haben sich #Wetterextreme wie #Hitzewellen, #Dürren, #Starkregen, #Hochwasser und #Stürme deutlich verstärkt. Die 1,5-Grad-Grenze wurde bewusst gewählt, weil solche #Klimafolgen darunter noch halbwegs handhabbar bleiben. Wird die Schwelle jedoch überschritten, verstärken sich diese #Klimagefahren den Prognosen zufolge deutlich.
„Jahrelanges Nichtstun hat zur Folge, dass selbst bei einer Rückkehr zu einer Erwärmung von unter 1,5 Grad irreversible Verluste und dauerhaft veränderte Bedingungen unvermeidlich sind“, erklärt die UNEP. Das Überschreiten der 1,5-Grad-Grenze dürfe daher nicht als neues Ziel und Ausrede zu laxem Klimaschutz betrachtet werden. Es sei ein Zustand, dessen Ausmaß wir dringend minimieren und den wir umkehren müssen.
https://wissenschaft.de/artikel/un-report-ueberschreiten-von-1-5-grad-unvermeidlich-und-nun
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Climate communication is irrationally hopeful. We need to tell the truth about the Great Unraveling
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Global temperature rise is set to cross 1.5°C according to a report from United Nations.
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Climate ‘Overshoot’ Is Coming — Are We Ready?
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Honored to have helped review this new, major UN (@unep) Report on “Limiting #Overshoot”, released today!
There are no good outcomes in overshooting 1.5°C. Therefore, any exceedance must be as small and short as possible to reduce risks of irreversible impacts, especially from the #cryosphere.
❄️🧊🌊👉 Read the full report here: https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/49857
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Jetzt auch die #UN: wir werden das 1,5 Grad Limit überschreiten und müssen nach dem #Overshoot wieder runter.
Hier ein kurzer Hinweis auf einen Artikel u.a. zu Prognosen bezgl. #CCS:
https://projects.propublica.org/why-carbon-capture-cant-solve-climate-change/Technische Lösungen werden nicht rechtzeitig helfen.
Wir müssen so schnell wie möglich aufhören Dinge zu verbrennen. Und jede natürliche Senke schützen und wiederherstellen, wo es nur geht.#Klimakatastrophe #ChangeTheSystem #CarbonCapture #1Komma5 #UNEP
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Limiting Overshoot - Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return | UNEP - UN Environment Programme https://www.unep.org/resources/limiting-overshoot-navigating-exceedance
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RE: https://climatejustice.social/@muellertadzio/117199902178026977
& can we maybe look at the idea of #overshoot more critically? It's literally meaningless gibberish, since: beyond a tipping point, change becomes non-linear, so you can't
("overshoot" refers to the idea that we pass 1.5 degrees, maybe up to 3 & beyond, and THEN return to our safe operating space)
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This is the UN report that has the media clutching their pearls >>
Limiting #Overshoot: Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return
https://wedocs.unep.org/items/156d074c-ab1d-4833-acf8-6343589ede9b #climate
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If temperatures were ever to stabilize, impacts do not reverse.
A community displaced by repeated drought does not return home. A farming household that sold its land after successive crop failures has no capital base to re-enter. Lives lost to heat extremes are not restored.A scientific framework traces #overshoot impacts through a 3-layer #cascade:
1. the temperature path (how high, how long, how fast),
2. the biophysical response,
3. the socioeconomic outcome that follows.
Livability at one layer does not guarantee it at the next.3 mechanisms make loss permanent:
• Non-substitutability: some losses are forever. Lives, species, cultural heritage.
• Threshold-crossing: repeated shocks exhaust a community's coping.
• Lock-in: adapting to peak conditions creates barriers to reversal even if well designed.Hence a #governance gap: containing temperatures may be read as a solution precisely while permanent harm accumulates fastest, weakening political will.
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RE: https://mastodon.green/@gerrymcgovern/117121851604215664
About 3 years after I promote "LESS" in my book, the concept slowly gains more ground.
The concept 'ecological overshoot' dates back at least 45 years, when William Catton published its famous book withe the title "Overshoot"
If you want to read my freely available book on our current predicament and the course of our civilisation, you can download it from here:
https://kolektiva.social/@nan_ano/115724266478085106
#Collapse #Overshoot #Ecology #EcologicalOvershoot #CrashCourse #Extinction #CO2 #ClimateChange
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Which means Honduras is functionally subsidizing the American driveway, and not one person in Washington has ever said thank you.
Tha an talamh a' cumail cunntais — the earth keeps accounts.
She's been keeping them a long while, and she didn't raise her voice about it today.
https://twp.ai/9OZaJo
#EarthOvershootDay #MoveTheDate #ClimateCrisis #Climate #Ecology #Overshoot #Environment #News #Journalism #Politics #Solarpunk #MutualAid #MutualAidRequest
2/2 -
The country breakdown is where the arithmetic stops being abstract.
Qatar's overshoot day: February 4. Luxembourg, February 17. Singapore, February 23. The United States: March 14 — we burned through our share before the daffodils came up.
Honduras doesn't reach its day until November 27.
https://twp.ai/4huL7k
#EarthOvershootDay #MoveTheDate #ClimateCrisis #Climate #Ecology #Overshoot #Environment #News #Journalism #Politics #Solarpunk #MutualAid #MutualAidRequest
1/2 -
Global Footprint Network says the shift came almost entirely from a revised estimate of how much carbon the ocean absorbs. A spreadsheet moved. The real footprint grew. 2026 is the highest overshoot ever recorded, and it got announced like an improvement.
#EarthOvershootDay #MoveTheDate #ClimateCrisis #Climate #Ecology #Overshoot #Environment #News #Journalism #Politics #Solarpunk #MutualAid #MutualAidRequest
2/2 -
Life without oil: The Strait of Hormuz crisis is a warning for global systems under strain
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3 climate scientists spit their dummy https://theconversation.com/the-overshoot-myth-you-cant-keep-burning-fossil-fuels-and-expect-scientists-of-the-future-to-get-us-back-to-1-5-c-230814
#JamesDyke @jamesdyke , #RobertWatson and #WolfgangKnorr clean up after the #netZero party, carry #CDR #BECCS and #SRM out to the trash, sweep the floor with #overshoot scenarios before binning them, too.
It's a longish read. But since these 3 are real climate scientists in the trenches, their angry explosion is worth my time. I kept reminding myself who I am "listening to" because so much of it is my own vocabulary and anger, and I rarely if ever see the message put so clearly, bar all the ballads of utopia and hopium.2 things I'd like to see now: en lieu of "2050 net zero", a timing for [avoiding] the civilisation crash, considering all milestones and deadlines for them.
I have done one. And one milestone deadline, a prerequisite for a subsequent 5year project in social politics, is end of 2024.And the other thing, en lieu of SRM research, a new emission scenario to be filled with a new science body: SSP0-2040 or RCPcollapse2040 which inform the global ~40% crash survivors what changes to expect in regional climate and biosphere.
I have started on it. Taking the analog of the 1610 event, when 56mio Americans died and CO2 dropped by 7-11 ppm. From there we can look at, when civilisation crashes, how all the land is freed up currently under industrial agriculture use for the consumerism in EU and USA-CAN. This also includes all tropical ex-rainforest areas bc China's imports will cease as well when supply chains for fossil fuels break.
And while survival rate in rural China and other non-rich, non-tech-dependent rural regions is high-ish, (so their land use for energy is going to increase),
populations in EU and USA-CAN will almost vanish. Freeing up the whole landmass for plants.
A much larger area than 1610.How big is the drop in CO2?
What are the side effects on regional level?
What steps need to be taken before the crash in order to save the environment from decades or century-long industrial and radiation pollution from all the suddenly unmanned factories, fossil extraction sites, nuclear reactors? Especially mid-latitude pollution must be prevented so that survivors can leave their own eventually inhospitable climate zones to migrate there, without facing a 3 times reduced life expectancy due to untreated cancers.
Such a short life expectancy is too little time for amassing then-relevant knowledge and skills and to hand it over to next generations. Too short for meaningful survival. -
3 climate scientists spit their dummy https://theconversation.com/the-overshoot-myth-you-cant-keep-burning-fossil-fuels-and-expect-scientists-of-the-future-to-get-us-back-to-1-5-c-230814
#JamesDyke @jamesdyke , #RobertWatson and #WolfgangKnorr clean up after the #netZero party, carry #CDR #BECCS and #SRM out to the trash, sweep the floor with #overshoot scenarios before binning them, too.
It's a longish read. But since these 3 are real climate scientists in the trenches, their angry explosion is worth my time. I kept reminding myself who I am "listening to" because so much of it is my own vocabulary and anger, and I rarely if ever see the message put so clearly, bar all the ballads of utopia and hopium.2 things I'd like to see now: en lieu of "2050 net zero", a timing for [avoiding] the civilisation crash, considering all milestones and deadlines for them.
I have done one. And one milestone deadline, a prerequisite for a subsequent 5year project in social politics, is end of 2024.And the other thing, en lieu of SRM research, a new emission scenario to be filled with a new science body: SSP0-2040 or RCPcollapse2040 which inform the global ~40% crash survivors what changes to expect in regional climate and biosphere.
I have started on it. Taking the analog of the 1610 event, when 56mio Americans died and CO2 dropped by 7-11 ppm. From there we can look at, when civilisation crashes, how all the land is freed up currently under industrial agriculture use for the consumerism in EU and USA-CAN. This also includes all tropical ex-rainforest areas bc China's imports will cease as well when supply chains for fossil fuels break.
And while survival rate in rural China and other non-rich, non-tech-dependent rural regions is high-ish, (so their land use for energy is going to increase),
populations in EU and USA-CAN will almost vanish. Freeing up the whole landmass for plants.
A much larger area than 1610.How big is the drop in CO2?
What are the side effects on regional level?
What steps need to be taken before the crash in order to save the environment from decades or century-long industrial and radiation pollution from all the suddenly unmanned factories, fossil extraction sites, nuclear reactors? Especially mid-latitude pollution must be prevented so that survivors can leave their own eventually inhospitable climate zones to migrate there, without facing a 3 times reduced life expectancy due to untreated cancers.
Such a short life expectancy is too little time for amassing then-relevant knowledge and skills and to hand it over to next generations. Too short for meaningful survival. -
3 climate scientists spit their dummy https://theconversation.com/the-overshoot-myth-you-cant-keep-burning-fossil-fuels-and-expect-scientists-of-the-future-to-get-us-back-to-1-5-c-230814
#JamesDyke @jamesdyke , #RobertWatson and #WolfgangKnorr clean up after the #netZero party, carry #CDR #BECCS and #SRM out to the trash, sweep the floor with #overshoot scenarios before binning them, too.
It's a longish read. But since these 3 are real climate scientists in the trenches, their angry explosion is worth my time. I kept reminding myself who I am "listening to" because so much of it is my own vocabulary and anger, and I rarely if ever see the message put so clearly, bar all the ballads of utopia and hopium.2 things I'd like to see now: en lieu of "2050 net zero", a timing for [avoiding] the civilisation crash, considering all milestones and deadlines for them.
I have done one. And one milestone deadline, a prerequisite for a subsequent 5year project in social politics, is end of 2024.And the other thing, en lieu of SRM research, a new emission scenario to be filled with a new science body: SSP0-2040 or RCPcollapse2040 which inform the global ~40% crash survivors what changes to expect in regional climate and biosphere.
I have started on it. Taking the analog of the 1610 event, when 56mio Americans died and CO2 dropped by 7-11 ppm. From there we can look at, when civilisation crashes, how all the land is freed up currently under industrial agriculture use for the consumerism in EU and USA-CAN. This also includes all tropical ex-rainforest areas bc China's imports will cease as well when supply chains for fossil fuels break.
And while survival rate in rural China and other non-rich, non-tech-dependent rural regions is high-ish, (so their land use for energy is going to increase),
populations in EU and USA-CAN will almost vanish. Freeing up the whole landmass for plants.
A much larger area than 1610.How big is the drop in CO2?
What are the side effects on regional level?
What steps need to be taken before the crash in order to save the environment from decades or century-long industrial and radiation pollution from all the suddenly unmanned factories, fossil extraction sites, nuclear reactors? Especially mid-latitude pollution must be prevented so that survivors can leave their own eventually inhospitable climate zones to migrate there, without facing a 3 times reduced life expectancy due to untreated cancers.
Such a short life expectancy is too little time for amassing then-relevant knowledge and skills and to hand it over to next generations. Too short for meaningful survival. -
3 climate scientists spit their dummy https://theconversation.com/the-overshoot-myth-you-cant-keep-burning-fossil-fuels-and-expect-scientists-of-the-future-to-get-us-back-to-1-5-c-230814
#JamesDyke @jamesdyke , #RobertWatson and #WolfgangKnorr clean up after the #netZero party, carry #CDR #BECCS and #SRM out to the trash, sweep the floor with #overshoot scenarios before binning them, too.
It's a longish read. But since these 3 are real climate scientists in the trenches, their angry explosion is worth my time. I kept reminding myself who I am "listening to" because so much of it is my own vocabulary and anger, and I rarely if ever see the message put so clearly, bar all the ballads of utopia and hopium.2 things I'd like to see now: en lieu of "2050 net zero", a timing for [avoiding] the civilisation crash, considering all milestones and deadlines for them.
I have done one. And one milestone deadline, a prerequisite for a subsequent 5year project in social politics, is end of 2024.And the other thing, en lieu of SRM research, a new emission scenario to be filled with a new science body: SSP0-2040 or RCPcollapse2040 which inform the global ~40% crash survivors what changes to expect in regional climate and biosphere.
I have started on it. Taking the analog of the 1610 event, when 56mio Americans died and CO2 dropped by 7-11 ppm. From there we can look at, when civilisation crashes, how all the land is freed up currently under industrial agriculture use for the consumerism in EU and USA-CAN. This also includes all tropical ex-rainforest areas bc China's imports will cease as well when supply chains for fossil fuels break.
And while survival rate in rural China and other non-rich, non-tech-dependent rural regions is high-ish, (so their land use for energy is going to increase),
populations in EU and USA-CAN will almost vanish. Freeing up the whole landmass for plants.
A much larger area than 1610.How big is the drop in CO2?
What are the side effects on regional level?
What steps need to be taken before the crash in order to save the environment from decades or century-long industrial and radiation pollution from all the suddenly unmanned factories, fossil extraction sites, nuclear reactors? Especially mid-latitude pollution must be prevented so that survivors can leave their own eventually inhospitable climate zones to migrate there, without facing a 3 times reduced life expectancy due to untreated cancers.
Such a short life expectancy is too little time for amassing then-relevant knowledge and skills and to hand it over to next generations. Too short for meaningful survival. -
#ClimateCatastrophe #Overshoot #PhantomCarryingCapacity
(5/n)
"...8 billion people is 👉completely dependent on #FossilFuels👈 such as #oil and natural #gas."
"Without plenty of affordable energy, we cannot continue to grow our population or even maintain it."
"...all this #GreenEnergy requires another finite resource:
#RareEarthMetals. The great thing..."