#overshoot — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #overshoot, aggregated by home.social.
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Nel 2026 l’#Overshoot Day italiano cade il 3 maggio, segnando l’esaurimento delle risorse naturali annuali. Il dato evidenzia una pressione crescente sugli #ecosistemi, ma anche segnali di transizione in alcuni comparti industriali #sostenibilità #tutelaambiente #greenplanner
https://www.greenplanner.it/2026/05/03/overshoot-day-calendario-insostenibilita/
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Als we de komende jaren evenveel CO2 blijven uitstoten als in 2025 dan is het resterende ‘koolstofbudget’ – de hoeveelheid CO2 die we nog mogen uitstoten om onder een opwarming van 1,5°C te blijven – uitgeput binnen de vier jaar.
Nu al wordt de gemiddelde globale temperatuurstijging geschat op ongeveer 1,4°C boven het pre-industriële niveau. De gevolgen van die opwarming draaien we niet zomaar even terug. En alle ellende die dit veroorzaakt evenmin. De planeet heeft geen thermostaat die je naar believen kan instellen.
Begrotingsdiscipline blijkt in het geval van koolstof minder dwingend dan wanneer het over overheidsfinanciën gaat.
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In conversation: Dave Murphy and Tom Murphy – if modernity can’t last forever, what comes next?
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In conversation: Dave Murphy and Tom Murphy – can modernity survive planetary limits?
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Bill Rees: A childhood moment on a Canadian farm led to ecological footprint analysis
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Vandaag is het in Belgie #overshoot day. 2 weken later dan vorig jaar, maar dat is enkel omdat er andere berekeningen gebruikt worden.
https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2026/04/09/overshoot-day-for-belgie-als-alle-landen-consumeerden-als-de-bel/ -
[P] I think it's callous to bring a child into this cruelty. Thanks to monsters, ours is a dying world, and a cruel one. Everything is worse for each new generation. As it stands, without extreme population degrowth? There is no future. It'll only get worse. How could one look at such a cruel, dying world and think "Gosh, what a perfect environment for a child!" without being a monster?
#psychology #actuallyautistic #neurotypicals #science #childfree #overpopulation #overshoot
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[P] I'm curious about the intersection of the normalised monster traits of humanity and breeding. To begin, the world is clearly overpopulated, claiming otherwise is spreading wealthy whitey billionaire propaganda.
https://www.sciencealert.com/earths-population-has-surpassed-the-planets-capacity-study-suggests
The earth IS grossly overpopulated. This is science fact. So why is it denied? Why is the propaganda believed? I want to examine that a little bit.
#psychology #actuallyautistic #neurotypicals #science #childfree #overpopulation #overshoot
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@b_age Ich erzähle den Leuten ja immer sehr gerne, daß unsere moderne Zivilisation gerade kollabiert, daß das Industriezeitalter wahrscheinlich keine hundert Jahre mehr weitergehen wird und todsicher weniger als dreihundert, und daß die Chancen der Spezies Homo sapiens, die nächsten tausend Jahre oder so zu überleben relativ mies stehen und sich jeden Tag ein wenig verschlechtern. Die meisten antworten dann irgendwas mit Klimaschutz hier und Energiewende da und Geoengineering und hastenichtgesehen, und ich erkläre denen dann, daß die Klimakrise nur eine Teilkrise einer viel umfassenderen komplexen Polykrisis ist, und daß das Artensterben, das 6. Massenaussterben der Erdgeschichte, eine weit schlimmere Teilkrise der Polykrisis ist. Ich erzähle ihnen davon, daß Wachstum vorbei ist, weil wir die Grenzen des Wachstums längst überschritten haben und immer tiefer in den ökologischen Overshoot rutschen, daß die Weltwirtschaft quasi sofort um mehr als die Hälfte schrumpfen müßte (und anschließend natürlich nie wieder wachsen), um irgendeine Chance auf Nachhaltigkeit zu haben, und daß diese Schrumpfung unvermeidlich früher oder später so oder so kommen wird.
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I absolutely hate, hate, HATE how software environments are often called "ecosystems".
An ecosystem is a living organic structure on a living planet (more specifically, Earth, since we haven't found any other living planets yet), made from all kinds of organisms -- bacteria, archaea, fungi, all kinds of arthropods from tiny mites to big beetles and bumblebees, and far too few vertebrates nowadays because of the fucking Industrial Age. We've been ruining ecosystems at high speed ever since Columbus kickstarted colonialism, but then the steam engine came, constantly accelerating the growth our cancer of an economy, and after WW2 we started the afterburner. We've been destroying ecosystems at supersonic speed for eight decades, we can see them fall apart before our eyes. People have been seing the living world around them getting killed since the dirty old mills of the Black Country, and since the 1960s, a growing green movement all over the planet has been trying to stop the madness. And we aren't really very good at it, are we? This entire mess of a civilisation is running out of control, collapse has probably already begun, we're in ecological overshoot like Wile E. Coyote hanging in midair. Capitalism won't last much longer because it becomes dysfunctional when there isn't any real growth left, and we have not only reached the global growth limits, we have exceeded them, which means that the economy will eventually shrink by more than half, which isn't a recession or even a Second Great Depression, it is an utter collapse of the economy. If those of us who survive that can somehow built a sustainable type of economy from the leftovers, this industrial civilisation might not collapse completely just yet, entering a time of slow decline instead, and an entire new civilisation might grow in some other parts of the world, maybe in Africa, maybe in Asia, and spread across the world as the European type of civilisation slowly vanishes. Who knows? Right now, we need to learn how to survive in times of collapse. And the best way to do so is to learn how to do things properly which will still be relevant when there are no more computers or big factories or giant office buildings.I am part of an ecosystem, as I am one of many, many animals who live in this landscape. And like other animals, I need to eat some of the organisms who live here in order to survive. I'm a huge threat to every individual potato or chicken, yet my presence leads to the presence of more potatoes and chickens, which is one of all my interactions with the ecosystem. I can't do anything without my actions having consequences for the ecosystem of which I am but a tiny part. Some people today are as afraid of the ongoing global climate catastrophe as they should be, but only very few realise that the biodiversity crisis aka the Sixth Extinction is far worse and far more frightening.
And some IT guys who know fucking zilch about ecology have the bloody audacity to call some software environment an "ecosystem". I find it very annoying. Fucking techbros should think more and talk less.
#biodiversitycrisis #extinction #sixthextinction #globalwarming #climatecrisis #biospheredecline #capitalism #economicgrowth #limitstogrowth #overshoot #collapse #πολυκρίσης #polykrisis #polycrisis #ecosystem
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...👉There simply is no other possibility if we are to withstand once more the #Kassandra predictions👈 like mine here, or e.g. quite some time ago, about the #Overshoot, the #PopulationBomb, the #GreenRevolution, and the importance of the so-called #PhantomCarryingCapacity:
https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/112047709692840344.
As I summed up in this in this thread here, I guess, is the best example of 👉the imminent reality of this #PhantomCarryingCapacity is deep-well...
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Hannah Spencer's speech.
Good speech.One criticism: why is it called the Green party? What about the ecosystem and climate emergency? You have to use opportunities like this to level with people.
"Working hard used to get you a house, a nice life, holidays": Green's new Gorton and Denton MP Hannah Spencer rails against life in modern Britain as she vows to do things differently - Manchester Evening News
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/working-hard-used-you-house-33499412 -
@InsideClimate @latest-news-InsideClimate
Maybe we should start talking about that huge elephant in the room called #overpopulation and #Overshoot
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Last year I read Malm & Carton their two books on #overshoot #CCS and geoengineering that analysed this dynamic further. It's truly a horror scenario and it's the path that we're on. It's all baked in into the structure of our society, economy and politics.
Remember: 'The Earth is not dying - it is being killed. And the people who are killing it have names and addresses.'
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Meiner Meinung nach hat dieser Artikel immer noch nicht genügend Resonanz erfahren. Alle die hier vom Ausbau der EE in China sprechen und von Hoffnung, mögen sich doch jetzt langsam mal mit dem Konzept der Kipppunkte auseinandersetzen. #overshoot e360.yale.edu/features/1.5...
Overshoot: The World Is Hittin... -
“Nature has so far balanced our abuse,” says Johan Rockström, a leading Earth systems scientist. “This is coming to an end.”
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#ScienceTalk #overshoot #economy #ecology #HumanExceptionalism #ParasiticGrowths #degrowth
Dr. #MuhammadIttefaq interviews Dr. #WilliamRees
"You cannot continue to deplete essential resources.
At some point it comes back to bite you."https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZnnvH7FgBw
#climate #ClimateScience #climatechange #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #ExtremeWeather #polycrisis
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#Nachhaltigkeit #kapitalismus #wirtschaft #Ausbeutung #CO2 #CO2Kontingent #Overshoot #Umwelt #Ökozid #Konsum #AerrisBildungskanal
👏👏👏
(Es reicht nicht, das Haus zu streichen, ein neues Fundament muss her)
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#Nachhaltigkeit #kapitalismus #wirtschaft #Ausbeutung #CO2 #CO2Kontingent #Overshoot #Umwelt #Ökozid #Konsum #AerrisBildungskanal
👏👏👏
(Es reicht nicht, das Haus zu streichen, ein neues Fundament muss her)
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#Nachhaltigkeit #kapitalismus #wirtschaft #Ausbeutung #CO2 #CO2Kontingent #Overshoot #Umwelt #Ökozid #Konsum #AerrisBildungskanal
👏👏👏
(Es reicht nicht, das Haus zu streichen, ein neues Fundament muss her)
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#Nachhaltigkeit #kapitalismus #wirtschaft #Ausbeutung #CO2 #CO2Kontingent #Overshoot #Umwelt #Ökozid #Konsum #AerrisBildungskanal
👏👏👏
(Es reicht nicht, das Haus zu streichen, ein neues Fundament muss her)
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#Nachhaltigkeit #kapitalismus #wirtschaft #Ausbeutung #CO2 #CO2Kontingent #Overshoot #Umwelt #Ökozid #Konsum #AerrisBildungskanal
👏👏👏
(Es reicht nicht, das Haus zu streichen, ein neues Fundament muss her)
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#FYI #ClimateGenn #AMOC #overshoot #ClimateEmergency
#NickBreeze & #DavidSpratt #2025 #climate overview
Summary: we screwed up -.-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJxh0UL3rGc
#ClimateScience #climatechange #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #ExtremeWeather #polycrisis #EcosystemCollapse #systemcollapse #ecocide #fossilfuels #Co2 #Co2Emissions #methane #GreenhouseGases #KeepitInTheGround
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One of the books I am reading is "The Seneca Effect" from Ugo Bardi. The basic idea is that systems often exhibit slow growth followed by rapid decline.
In the first chapter about the collapse of the Roman Empire he argues that the Romans ran out of silver and gold coins which they used to buy silk from the Silk Road. This contradicts another book I am reading from Kyle Harper named "The Fate of Rome" which argues that the "Late Antique Little Ice Age" and the plague caused the collapse. Can both be true? Well the causality of #collapse can be complicated 🙂
The Seneca Effect itself is simple to understand. It describes a system dynamics where a quantity builds up slowly but collapses quickly once limits are reached. To explain the Seneca Effect Ugo Bardi uses a three part food chain model (similar to the Hastings-Powell model which exhibits chaotic dynamics). But the basic idea of the Seneca Effect is simple to explain: the more we #overshoot a system, the more rapid the collapse and decline which inevitably follows. Overshoot means we deny the actual state of resources and try to consume more although resources are actually declining.
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@InsideClimate @latest-news-InsideClimate Stop believing statements from industry about their pollutants. They lie!
“Chemours told state regulators in February that “based on risk assessment modelling and available toxicological data for similar compounds, TFA is not believed to be harmful to human health or the environment.””
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The world lost the climate gamble. Now it faces a dangerous new reality
The world bet on collective but voluntary action to keep global warming at a safe level.
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“Ten years ago we had a more orderly path for staying away from 1.5 °C, with low or no #overshoot. Now we we are 10 years later, we have failed,” Johan Rockström tells The Associated Press.
“Without carbon dioxide removal it is simply impossible to manage the overshoot scenario,” says Ottmar #Edenhofer.
Article on what overshoot means and where the world is currently headed: ️https://apnews.com/article/un-cop30-climate-talks-belem-brazil-c387cf773ece4c60cd6039be1ffb70ef
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Wow, - 7 bn people is a lot of decrease. I have seen numbers of 300 m to 2 bn #ClimateRefugees and share the #Overshoot hypothesis to a large degree, but had not come across that number.
Do your models include the (likely) hypothesis that #GlobalWarming is still accelerating?
https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/110729864746307867Which of the 9 tipping points did you assume will be reached until 2101?
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From "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the #World3 model"
by Arjuna Nebel, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski, Tim Schell
First published: 13 November 2023
4.3 Future trends
"So far, the results have mainly been considered in comparison with the empirical data for the recalibration. However, the course of the variables is also interesting in terms of future trends. Here, the model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable. Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.
"This interconnected collapse, or, as it has been called by Heinberg and Miller (2023), #polycrisis, occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution. The increase in environmental pollution occurs later and with a lower peak (Figure 3).
"However, it is important to note that the connections in the model and the recalibration are only valid for the rising edge, as many of the variables and equations represented in the model are not physical but socio-economic. It is to be expected that the complex socio-economic relationships will be rearranged and reconnected in the event of a collapse. World3 holds the relationships between variables constant. Therefore it is not useful to draw further conclusions from the trajectory after the tipping points. Rather, it is important to recognize that there are large uncertainties about the trajectory from then on, building models for this could be a whole new field of research.
"The fact is that the recalibrated model again shows the possibility of a collapse of our current system. At the same time, the BAU scenario of the 1972 model is shown to be alarmingly consistent with the most recently collected empirical data.
"#Herrington (2021) also concluded in her data comparison that the world is far from a stabilized world scenario where the #overshoot and #collapse mode is brought to a halt. As a society, we have to admit that despite 50 years of knowledge about the dynamics of the collapse of our life support systems, we have failed to initiate a systematic change to prevent this collapse. It is becoming increasingly clear that, despite #technological advances, the change needed to put us on a different trajectory will also require a change in #BeliefSystems, #mindsets, and the way we organize our society (Irwin, 2015; Wamsler & Brink, 2018). [SW model]
"At the point of collapse, the resolution of the model also reaches the limit of further plausible statements. The regional differences in demographic and economic terms are too great to be reduced to simple, highly aggregated variables. To address this problem, a new system dynamics model has been developed on the occasion of #LtG's 50th anniversary which is called Earth for all (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). It introduces a regional resolution and a measure of social inequality and tension. There is also a greater focus on the causes and effects of the #ClimateCrisis. In #Earth4all, the authors no longer focus on scenarios with sharp declines in the main variables. Instead, the scenario Too little too late describes that the effects of the climate crisis will continue to increase and social tensions will rise, causing the well-being index to decline over time. In another scenario, #GiantLeap, it is shown that these negative developments could also be stopped. The authors then propose various policy changes to achieve this (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). "
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442
#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse #SolarPunk #SocietalChange #Degrowth #MindsetChange -
From "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the #World3 model"
by Arjuna Nebel, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski, Tim Schell
First published: 13 November 2023
4.3 Future trends
"So far, the results have mainly been considered in comparison with the empirical data for the recalibration. However, the course of the variables is also interesting in terms of future trends. Here, the model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable. Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.
"This interconnected collapse, or, as it has been called by Heinberg and Miller (2023), #polycrisis, occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution. The increase in environmental pollution occurs later and with a lower peak (Figure 3).
"However, it is important to note that the connections in the model and the recalibration are only valid for the rising edge, as many of the variables and equations represented in the model are not physical but socio-economic. It is to be expected that the complex socio-economic relationships will be rearranged and reconnected in the event of a collapse. World3 holds the relationships between variables constant. Therefore it is not useful to draw further conclusions from the trajectory after the tipping points. Rather, it is important to recognize that there are large uncertainties about the trajectory from then on, building models for this could be a whole new field of research.
"The fact is that the recalibrated model again shows the possibility of a collapse of our current system. At the same time, the BAU scenario of the 1972 model is shown to be alarmingly consistent with the most recently collected empirical data.
"#Herrington (2021) also concluded in her data comparison that the world is far from a stabilized world scenario where the #overshoot and #collapse mode is brought to a halt. As a society, we have to admit that despite 50 years of knowledge about the dynamics of the collapse of our life support systems, we have failed to initiate a systematic change to prevent this collapse. It is becoming increasingly clear that, despite #technological advances, the change needed to put us on a different trajectory will also require a change in #BeliefSystems, #mindsets, and the way we organize our society (Irwin, 2015; Wamsler & Brink, 2018). [SW model]
"At the point of collapse, the resolution of the model also reaches the limit of further plausible statements. The regional differences in demographic and economic terms are too great to be reduced to simple, highly aggregated variables. To address this problem, a new system dynamics model has been developed on the occasion of #LtG's 50th anniversary which is called Earth for all (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). It introduces a regional resolution and a measure of social inequality and tension. There is also a greater focus on the causes and effects of the #ClimateCrisis. In #Earth4all, the authors no longer focus on scenarios with sharp declines in the main variables. Instead, the scenario Too little too late describes that the effects of the climate crisis will continue to increase and social tensions will rise, causing the well-being index to decline over time. In another scenario, #GiantLeap, it is shown that these negative developments could also be stopped. The authors then propose various policy changes to achieve this (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). "
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442
#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse #SolarPunk #SocietalChange #Degrowth #MindsetChange -
From "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the #World3 model"
by Arjuna Nebel, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski, Tim Schell
First published: 13 November 2023
4.3 Future trends
"So far, the results have mainly been considered in comparison with the empirical data for the recalibration. However, the course of the variables is also interesting in terms of future trends. Here, the model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable. Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.
"This interconnected collapse, or, as it has been called by Heinberg and Miller (2023), #polycrisis, occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution. The increase in environmental pollution occurs later and with a lower peak (Figure 3).
"However, it is important to note that the connections in the model and the recalibration are only valid for the rising edge, as many of the variables and equations represented in the model are not physical but socio-economic. It is to be expected that the complex socio-economic relationships will be rearranged and reconnected in the event of a collapse. World3 holds the relationships between variables constant. Therefore it is not useful to draw further conclusions from the trajectory after the tipping points. Rather, it is important to recognize that there are large uncertainties about the trajectory from then on, building models for this could be a whole new field of research.
"The fact is that the recalibrated model again shows the possibility of a collapse of our current system. At the same time, the BAU scenario of the 1972 model is shown to be alarmingly consistent with the most recently collected empirical data.
"#Herrington (2021) also concluded in her data comparison that the world is far from a stabilized world scenario where the #overshoot and #collapse mode is brought to a halt. As a society, we have to admit that despite 50 years of knowledge about the dynamics of the collapse of our life support systems, we have failed to initiate a systematic change to prevent this collapse. It is becoming increasingly clear that, despite #technological advances, the change needed to put us on a different trajectory will also require a change in #BeliefSystems, #mindsets, and the way we organize our society (Irwin, 2015; Wamsler & Brink, 2018). [SW model]
"At the point of collapse, the resolution of the model also reaches the limit of further plausible statements. The regional differences in demographic and economic terms are too great to be reduced to simple, highly aggregated variables. To address this problem, a new system dynamics model has been developed on the occasion of #LtG's 50th anniversary which is called Earth for all (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). It introduces a regional resolution and a measure of social inequality and tension. There is also a greater focus on the causes and effects of the #ClimateCrisis. In #Earth4all, the authors no longer focus on scenarios with sharp declines in the main variables. Instead, the scenario Too little too late describes that the effects of the climate crisis will continue to increase and social tensions will rise, causing the well-being index to decline over time. In another scenario, #GiantLeap, it is shown that these negative developments could also be stopped. The authors then propose various policy changes to achieve this (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). "
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442
#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse #SolarPunk #SocietalChange #Degrowth #MindsetChange -
From "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the #World3 model"
by Arjuna Nebel, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski, Tim Schell
First published: 13 November 2023
4.3 Future trends
"So far, the results have mainly been considered in comparison with the empirical data for the recalibration. However, the course of the variables is also interesting in terms of future trends. Here, the model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable. Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.
"This interconnected collapse, or, as it has been called by Heinberg and Miller (2023), #polycrisis, occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution. The increase in environmental pollution occurs later and with a lower peak (Figure 3).
"However, it is important to note that the connections in the model and the recalibration are only valid for the rising edge, as many of the variables and equations represented in the model are not physical but socio-economic. It is to be expected that the complex socio-economic relationships will be rearranged and reconnected in the event of a collapse. World3 holds the relationships between variables constant. Therefore it is not useful to draw further conclusions from the trajectory after the tipping points. Rather, it is important to recognize that there are large uncertainties about the trajectory from then on, building models for this could be a whole new field of research.
"The fact is that the recalibrated model again shows the possibility of a collapse of our current system. At the same time, the BAU scenario of the 1972 model is shown to be alarmingly consistent with the most recently collected empirical data.
"#Herrington (2021) also concluded in her data comparison that the world is far from a stabilized world scenario where the #overshoot and #collapse mode is brought to a halt. As a society, we have to admit that despite 50 years of knowledge about the dynamics of the collapse of our life support systems, we have failed to initiate a systematic change to prevent this collapse. It is becoming increasingly clear that, despite #technological advances, the change needed to put us on a different trajectory will also require a change in #BeliefSystems, #mindsets, and the way we organize our society (Irwin, 2015; Wamsler & Brink, 2018). [SW model]
"At the point of collapse, the resolution of the model also reaches the limit of further plausible statements. The regional differences in demographic and economic terms are too great to be reduced to simple, highly aggregated variables. To address this problem, a new system dynamics model has been developed on the occasion of #LtG's 50th anniversary which is called Earth for all (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). It introduces a regional resolution and a measure of social inequality and tension. There is also a greater focus on the causes and effects of the #ClimateCrisis. In #Earth4all, the authors no longer focus on scenarios with sharp declines in the main variables. Instead, the scenario Too little too late describes that the effects of the climate crisis will continue to increase and social tensions will rise, causing the well-being index to decline over time. In another scenario, #GiantLeap, it is shown that these negative developments could also be stopped. The authors then propose various policy changes to achieve this (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). "
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442
#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse #SolarPunk #SocietalChange #Degrowth #MindsetChange -
From "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the #World3 model"
by Arjuna Nebel, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski, Tim Schell
First published: 13 November 2023
4.3 Future trends
"So far, the results have mainly been considered in comparison with the empirical data for the recalibration. However, the course of the variables is also interesting in terms of future trends. Here, the model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable. Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.
"This interconnected collapse, or, as it has been called by Heinberg and Miller (2023), #polycrisis, occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution. The increase in environmental pollution occurs later and with a lower peak (Figure 3).
"However, it is important to note that the connections in the model and the recalibration are only valid for the rising edge, as many of the variables and equations represented in the model are not physical but socio-economic. It is to be expected that the complex socio-economic relationships will be rearranged and reconnected in the event of a collapse. World3 holds the relationships between variables constant. Therefore it is not useful to draw further conclusions from the trajectory after the tipping points. Rather, it is important to recognize that there are large uncertainties about the trajectory from then on, building models for this could be a whole new field of research.
"The fact is that the recalibrated model again shows the possibility of a collapse of our current system. At the same time, the BAU scenario of the 1972 model is shown to be alarmingly consistent with the most recently collected empirical data.
"#Herrington (2021) also concluded in her data comparison that the world is far from a stabilized world scenario where the #overshoot and #collapse mode is brought to a halt. As a society, we have to admit that despite 50 years of knowledge about the dynamics of the collapse of our life support systems, we have failed to initiate a systematic change to prevent this collapse. It is becoming increasingly clear that, despite #technological advances, the change needed to put us on a different trajectory will also require a change in #BeliefSystems, #mindsets, and the way we organize our society (Irwin, 2015; Wamsler & Brink, 2018). [SW model]
"At the point of collapse, the resolution of the model also reaches the limit of further plausible statements. The regional differences in demographic and economic terms are too great to be reduced to simple, highly aggregated variables. To address this problem, a new system dynamics model has been developed on the occasion of #LtG's 50th anniversary which is called Earth for all (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). It introduces a regional resolution and a measure of social inequality and tension. There is also a greater focus on the causes and effects of the #ClimateCrisis. In #Earth4all, the authors no longer focus on scenarios with sharp declines in the main variables. Instead, the scenario Too little too late describes that the effects of the climate crisis will continue to increase and social tensions will rise, causing the well-being index to decline over time. In another scenario, #GiantLeap, it is shown that these negative developments could also be stopped. The authors then propose various policy changes to achieve this (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). "
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442
#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse #SolarPunk #SocietalChange #Degrowth #MindsetChange -
Limits to Growth was right about collapse
#HackerNews #LimitsToGrowth #Collapse #Overshoot #Sustainability #FutureTrends #EnvironmentalImpact
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Uppdatering: Tillräckligt med röster har uppnåtts, tack till alla som röstat!
Vi vill att #Malmö ska förbjuda #fossil #reklam.
Förra veckan beslöt Delft i Nederländerna att gå med i en växande grupp städer som förbjuder fossil reklam i sina utomhusmiljöer. I #Sverige finns liknande beslut där man i Stockholm och Göteborg har förbjudit fossil reklam i kollektivtrafiken.
För dig som bor i Malmö kan du skriva under det här medborgarinitiativet om du tycker som oss. Efter 100 röster måste det diskuteras av en av stadens nämnder.
https://malmo.flexite.com/malmo_fp/listview/3GLM/detailsView/33699
Vi kommer att finnas på plats denna torsdag under #Overshoot festivalen för er som vill diskutera vidare, komma med fler idéer om hur vi kan förbättra Malmö, eller undrar vilka som är fördelarna med en fossilfri stadsmiljö. Klockan 12-19 i Folkets Park.
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BIOSin toukokuun uutiskirje ilmestynyt, https://bios.fi/uutiskirje-5-2025/
#vetytalous #taantumus #ymparisto #ympäristömenettely #sujuvoittaminen #vihreasiirtyma #energia #overshoot #ilmasto #ilmastoVitkastelu #denial #ilmastoRealismi #kestävyys
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I think that whatever happens, we absolutely must keep a healthy biodiverse population of horses alive if we can. When civilisation eventually collapses, we will need riders to stich the remaining civilised islands back together. We humans are just a bunch of very smart monkeys, upright walking grassland apes with big mutant brains that need a lot of fat and protein, but once we ride horses, we can have a very well organised society while staying mobile until we run out of grasslands. Savannah, steppe, prairie, pampa, whatever the local type of grassland ecosystem is called, once humans have horses, we can always live rather good lives there because we evolved for it, and so did the horses.
The grasslands will be different in the future because they will shift by thousands of kilometres if all this climate mayhem continues as projected (and in order for it to continue, all we have to do is not to change anything we're doing), with new species of plants and animals evolving from whatever survives there, but as long as there is a lot of grass, horses will thrive there, and so will nomadic tribes.
Whether people can still use horses to replace broken machines that cannot be repaired will have a significant influence on the probability of survival. We (well, those few of us who survive, not me; I won't live to see the end of it, I'm almost 50) might have to party like it's 1699, but it's better than partying like it's 5,000BC, and even that is better than partying like it's 50,000,000BC when there were those cute little mini horses, and that was because all the large mammals had died out because the planet was too fucking hot for them.
Just look at how populations of non-human, non-pet and non-livestock vertebrates are plummeting right now. Some species are thriving, mostly small omnivores like mice or pigeons, but all the other vertebrates are vanishing because we're destroying their habitats to grow crops or build big concrete boxes that suck up a lot of energy and raw materials and spew out heat and rubbish. Keeping both humans and horses alive during such a collapse will be hard, but if we lose horses, we will probably fall all the way down to a Palæolithic way of life with no chance of ever getting out of it again.
People keep talking about the climate as if it were the only thing that is killing us, while the biodiversity collapse is actually the thing which is doing us in right now. If we put enough greenhouse gases into the atmosphere to tip the Earth into a global Hothouse Age like back in the days of the tiny horses that were the ancestors of all horses, donkeys, zebras, and the tiny lemurs that would over millions of years evolve into monkeys, into apes, and into us, well, that will definitely be the end of us and of 95% of all other species of plants, fungi, animals, whatever, most complex multicellular organisms will be having a bad time, but waterbears or moss piglets or whatever you like to call them, tardigrades, they will barely notice that there's another mass extinction. But the biosphere will heal, our good old Earth will be fine again in five million years, maybe ten if it's really bad. New species will evolve from the survivors.
If Homo sapiens, the last surviving species of the genus Homo, doesn't go extinct, there will be future hominids, and maybe some distant descendant a couple of million years in the future starts another Industrial Revolution and ruins everything again. Nope, not going to happen, all the fossil fuels are gone. Ha-ha! No, any postindustrial civilisation for a very, very long time will be able to start another Industrial Age. Once that's gone, it's gone. We might be able to preserve a lot of the theoretical knowledge, but we won't have the mass production. If it can't be done in a village workshop, it can't be done at all. I think the Amish are a rather weird bunch, but at least they understand that reliance on complex technology beyond what can be made and repaired locally makes you vulnerable. And horses need neither oil nor electricity.
#πολυκρίσης #polykrisis #polycrisis #overshoot #collapse #SixthExtinction #ClimateChaos -
Das Ende des Wirtschaftswachstums - Ulrike Herrmann und das Ende unserer ökonomischen Illusionen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vF62F5wbqtA
#Kapitalismus #Ökologie #Ressourcenverbrauch #GrenzenDesWachstums #GrüneEnergie #Kernenergie #Kernkraft #Lösung #Kriegswirtschaft #Industrie #Overshoot #Wohlstand #Reichtum #Überkonsum #Überverbrauch #Grenzen #Verbrauch #Wachstumszwang
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@gerrymcgovern I think you might find it interesting to check out the first video (or however many catch your interest) of this playlist on "Metastatic Modernity" by Dr Tom Murphy of UCSD.
Murphy has been writing on energy, economy, modernity, and their intersection with planetary limits for quite a while at his Do The Math blog, and although that started in a pretty standard "green tech" position, as he started to look at things from a deeper, and rather darker, perspective which in 2021 he turned into an e-textbook _Energy and Human Ambition on a Finite Planet_.
Anyway, sorry for dropping in from nowhere.
#climate #modernity #DoTheMath #overshoot #LimitsToGrowth #sustainability
https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvUde-N4t8XncjoHqK0GsE7a6EXMRiyjH&si=10IAmdlEF16Q2BnS
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It all became very clear to me, when I read this insightful article about #Overshoot:
[CW: This is a quintessential article, however, I strongly recommend *not* reading it if you're suffering from a depression, etc.!]
After further reading and contemplation, I wrote this thread about the the #PhantomCarryingCapacity and the quintessential #SecondGreenRevolution:
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Forests can't be used in NDC (nationally determined contribution).Forests are in adaptation mode, that is, death by drought, bugs, fires, until new ecosystem members have moved in long after °C is stabilized.
Trees adapt to longer growth seasons, higher temperatures, over-fertilisation by CO2. This means less water and nutrients and makes them unhealthy.Trees only park our CO2, then they burn.
#Koutsodendris et al 2020 counted pollen at Lake Ohrid, Albania.
Look at the gap between rising °C 🟡 vs rising pollen count for temperate/mesophilus trees 🟤 🟢.Adapting to a new climate takes time, even with seed-carriers and migration corridors: 1000yrs until new ecosystem members have moved in and adaptation to a new stable climate is accomplished.
But we don't have migration corridors. We have settlements and agricultural wastelands with pesticides everywhere.
Also, sinks start outgassing once ppm drops. So if your #NDC include negative emissions by DACS or CCS to undo a temperature #overshoot, to really remove 1t CO2 from the system, you must remove 1.5t once we're in the negative emissions phase.
Outgassing is a physical process to balance changes in atmosphere composition. But of course, when ppm drops considerably, it also changes °C and regional climate and hydrological cycles – again. So your ecosystem is going into adaptation mode all over again. Forests burn.. again.
Overshoot scenarios aren't a good idea, even if we had working technology and concepts. CO2 removal adds another stressful phase and prolongs adaptation to changing factors – for us and our human systems, and for ecosystems on land and in the ocean.
#ClimateCrisis #COP29 #NDC #CCS #DACS #DAC #afforestation #deforestation #reforestation #landsink
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#WorldDevelopment #population #industrialOutput #FoodProduction #NonRenewableResources #pollution #LimitedResources #LimitsToGrowth #degrowth #overshoot #collapse #researcharticle #EmpiricalData #simulation #learning
"Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model"
You can see on the results section that the food production is estimated to peak around 2024.
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#WorldDevelopment #population #industrialOutput #FoodProduction #NonRenewableResources #pollution #LimitedResources #LimitsToGrowth #degrowth #overshoot #collapse #researcharticle #EmpiricalData #simulation #learning
"Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model"
You can see on the results section that the food production is estimated to peak around 2024.
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#WorldDevelopment #population #industrialOutput #FoodProduction #NonRenewableResources #pollution #LimitedResources #LimitsToGrowth #degrowth #overshoot #collapse #researcharticle #EmpiricalData #simulation #learning
"Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model"
You can see on the results section that the food production is estimated to peak around 2024.
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#WorldDevelopment #population #industrialOutput #FoodProduction #NonRenewableResources #pollution #LimitedResources #LimitsToGrowth #degrowth #overshoot #collapse #researcharticle #EmpiricalData #simulation #learning
"Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model"
You can see on the results section that the food production is estimated to peak around 2024.
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#WorldDevelopment #population #industrialOutput #FoodProduction #NonRenewableResources #pollution #LimitedResources #LimitsToGrowth #degrowth #overshoot #collapse #researcharticle #EmpiricalData #simulation #learning
"Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model"
You can see on the results section that the food production is estimated to peak around 2024.
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🧵 1/2: My heart sank today, as #novaramedia host Ash Sarkar asked the audience who had come to hear #climate activist & human #ecology professor #AndreasMalm: "who has flown more than once in the last 12 months?" and 90% rose their hands.
Here you have people who took precious time out of their Tuesday to hear about climate #overshoot from the guy who wrote 'how to blow up a pipeline', still believing that societal change will happen with no effort or change to their own lives. -
And as the #planet teeters closer to that temperature limit, #overshoot is looking more & more likely.
“A 1-in-10 chance of an #ExistentialThreat is not small,” Joeri Rogelj, a prof of #ClimateScience at Imperial College London & one of the authors of the new paper, said on a phone call w/reporters on Tues.
Since the #ParisAgreement, world leaders have promised to attempt to hold the global temperature rise to 1.5°C.#climate #ClimateCrisis #GlobalWarming #ExtremeWeather #VoteBlue
