#societalchange — Public Fediverse posts

Nowadays, censorship doesn't exist just as "blocking information". Censorship takes the form of "attacking the narrative and its sovereignty itself", such as through threatening people for their speech and opinions, defamation, and character attacks.

#censorship #freespeech #narrative #humanrights #activism #digitalfreedom #transparency #integrity #advocacy #dissent #truth #sovereignty #communication #ethics #accountability #speech #socialjustice #awareness #societalchange #freedom

Nowadays, censorship doesn't exist just as "blocking information". Censorship takes the form of "attacking the narrative and its sovereignty itself", such as through threatening people for their speech and opinions, defamation, and character attacks.

#censorship #freespeech #narrative #humanrights #activism #digitalfreedom #transparency #integrity #advocacy #dissent #truth #sovereignty #communication #ethics #accountability #speech #socialjustice #awareness #societalchange #freedom

DATE: July 1, 2026 at 06:00AM
SOURCE: PSYPOST.ORG

** Research quality varies widely from fantastic to small exploratory studies. Please check research methods when conclusions are very important to you. **
-------------------------------------------------

TITLE: Left-leaning Americans are driving the U.S. birth decline, new study finds

URL: https://www.psypost.org/left-leaning-americans-are-driving-the-u-s-birth-decline-new-study-finds/

A recent study published in Scientific Reports suggests that political beliefs are increasingly linked to the number of children Americans choose to have. The findings indicate that while conservative individuals tend to maintain birth rates near historical averages, left-leaning individuals are having significantly fewer children. This demographic trend provides evidence that differing birth rates are a main driver of recent fertility declines in the United States.

Political attitudes are often thought of as simple opinions. However, research suggests they are relatively stable traits shaped by both social upbringing and genetics. Because parents tend to pass their political orientations down to their children, differences in family size among political groups can influence the ideological balance of a population over time.

Martin Fieder and Susanne Huber wanted to understand how this relationship has evolved. “As evolutionary biologists, we are interested in why left- and right-wing political orientations did evolve and whether they are subject to natural selection through differences in fertility,” explained Fieder, an associate professor of evolutionary demography at the University of Vienna. “Earlier studies showed that political orientation is heritable and that fertility patterns differ across the political spectrum.”

Demographers study how societies transition to lower birth rates as they become wealthier. This shift involves cultural changes like a greater focus on individual achievement and non-traditional family structures. The authors aimed to explore whether this general decline in birth rates is happening evenly across the political spectrum.

“While globally both political extremes often have higher fertility, the pattern in the US and Europe is different,” Fieder said. “Individuals with more conservative political views tend to have more children than those on the political left.”

These new findings build upon previous work conducted by the researchers. In a 2018 study published in Frontiers in Psychology, the researchers analyzed global survey data. They found that in many regions, individuals at both the extreme left and the extreme right had higher fertility than political moderates.

However, their analysis of United States data in that same paper hinted that a unique advantage for conservatives began emerging during the 1990s. More recently, a 2024 study by the same authors in Biodemography and Social Biology indicated that European conservatives tend to have more children and grandchildren than their liberal counterparts.

“In a previous study, we demonstrated that these fertility differences are likely to contribute to a gradual demographic shift toward more conservative societies in Europe,” Fieder said. “In the present study, we wanted to determine when this divergence in fertility first emerged.”

To explore these trends, the scientists analyzed data from the United States General Social Survey collected between 1970 and 2022. The sample included 22,975 adults, consisting of 10,681 men and 12,294 women. All participants were over the age of 40, meaning they had generally completed their childbearing years.

The participants were grouped into 16 birth cohorts based on five-year intervals. This started with those born between 1903 and 1907 and ended with those born between 1978 and 1982. The researchers measured political orientation using a seven-point scale ranging from very left to very right, grouping these responses into three broader categories representing left, center, and right orientations.

To evaluate how fertility impacts the spread of political traits over time, the researchers used a statistical tool often applied in evolutionary biology to measure phenotypic selection. This method allows scientists to measure how strongly a specific observable trait influences reproductive success.

The data revealed a pronounced change in how political beliefs relate to family size. For individuals born in the early 1900s, political orientation had almost no association with the number of children they had. However, beginning with the cohort born between 1943 and 1947, a massive divergence emerged.

“We expected these results, but not to such a dramatic extent,” Fieder told PsyPost. From the mid-century cohorts onward, individuals with right-wing political views maintained birth rates at or slightly above the replacement level. The replacement level, typically considered to be 2.1 children per woman, is the rate needed for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next without immigration.

In contrast, the birth rates of left-wing individuals dropped sharply, falling well below the replacement level in the more recent cohorts. The authors noticed this drop aligns with historical changes in family planning. “We found that the gap began with the introduction of modern contraception,” Fieder said.

“Fertility declined markedly among individuals left of the political center, whereas those right of the center generally maintained fertility close to or above replacement level,” Fieder added. Individuals with centrist political views fell somewhere in the middle. Their fertility rates remained slightly below the replacement level but were consistently higher than those of left-leaning individuals.

“These findings provide new insight into the demographic drivers of fertility decline and suggest that differences in fertility may contribute to long-term changes in the political composition of the population, given that political orientation shows substantial parent-offspring similarity,” Fieder said. The research suggests “that much of the ‘rightward shift’ currently observed across many countries is related to underlying demographic changes.”

The authors also looked at how race interacted with these demographic trends. When analyzing White and Black Americans separately, they found that the widening fertility gap between the left and the right was primarily driven by White Americans. Among White participants, the reproductive advantage for conservatives grew substantially in the more recent birth cohorts.

For Black Americans, the researchers did not find a similar political divergence. While overall fertility among Black Americans also declined over time, birth rates remained relatively similar across the political spectrum. The authors suggest this might happen because ideological labels like liberal and conservative are often understood differently across various racial and cultural groups.

Beyond political views, the study found that other lifestyle factors strongly predicted family size. Education was consistently linked to lower fertility, meaning that individuals with more years of schooling tended to have fewer children. This negative association was particularly strong for women, a pattern that aligns with broader demographic research.

Religious attendance was positively associated with having more children. Interestingly, the data indicated that frequent religious attendance provided a stronger reproductive boost for men than it did for women. Even so, as the reproductive advantage of right-wing politics increased in recent generations, the independent effect of religious attendance on family size weakened slightly.

The authors suggest that differing views on family planning and lifestyle autonomy might play a role in these divergent birth rates. “The main takeaway is that political change is not driven only by persuasion, elections, or short-term social trends, but also by demographic processes,” Fieder said.

“Our findings suggest that differences in fertility rates across the political spectrum may gradually change the political composition of the US population over time,” Fieder said. “In particular, the decline in overall fertility appears to be driven largely by the sharp decrease in births among individuals left of the political center, possibly since the widespread use of modern contraceptives, although our data cannot directly prove this mechanism.”

This points to a significant limitation of the research. The study relies on observational data, meaning it cannot prove that holding a left-wing attitude directly causes a person to have fewer children. The survey data did not track individual fertility intentions or contraceptive use.

“We hypothesize that differences in the use of modern contraceptives contributed to the dramatic decline in fertility among individuals left of the political center,” Fieder said. “However, our data do not allow us to directly test or confirm this hypothesis.”

Additionally, measuring political orientation on a simple left-to-right scale oversimplifies the complex nature of human ideology. People often hold a mix of socially conservative and economically liberal views, which might influence their life choices in different ways.

Future research could explore how different types of conservatism, such as economic versus social conservatism, affect family planning. The researchers also plan to examine how these patterns operate outside of wealthy, post-industrial nations.

“We would also like to examine whether similar trends are beginning to emerge globally, particularly in developing countries, where our 2018 study suggested that fertility rates across the political spectrum were still relatively balanced,” Fieder said.

The study, “Falling Fertility on the Left as Key Driver of US Birth Decline,” was authored by Martin Fieder and Susanne Huber.

URL: https://www.psypost.org/left-leaning-americans-are-driving-the-u-s-birth-decline-new-study-finds/

-------------------------------------------------

Private, vetted email list for mental health professionals: https://www.clinicians-exchange.org

Unofficial Psychology Today Xitter to toot feed at Psych Today Unofficial Bot @PTUnofficialBot

-------------------------------------------------

#psychology #counseling #socialwork #psychotherapy @psychotherapist @psychotherapists @psychology @socialpsych @socialwork @psychiatry #mentalhealth #psychiatry #healthcare #depression #psychotherapist #FertilityTrends #BirthRates #USDemographics #PoliticalOrientation #LeftVsRightFertility #Demography #ContraceptionImpact #FiederHuberStudy #SocietalChange #PopulationShift

DATE: July 1, 2026 at 06:00AM
SOURCE: PSYPOST.ORG

** Research quality varies widely from fantastic to small exploratory studies. Please check research methods when conclusions are very important to you. **
-------------------------------------------------

TITLE: Left-leaning Americans are driving the U.S. birth decline, new study finds

URL: https://www.psypost.org/left-leaning-americans-are-driving-the-u-s-birth-decline-new-study-finds/

A recent study published in Scientific Reports suggests that political beliefs are increasingly linked to the number of children Americans choose to have. The findings indicate that while conservative individuals tend to maintain birth rates near historical averages, left-leaning individuals are having significantly fewer children. This demographic trend provides evidence that differing birth rates are a main driver of recent fertility declines in the United States.

Political attitudes are often thought of as simple opinions. However, research suggests they are relatively stable traits shaped by both social upbringing and genetics. Because parents tend to pass their political orientations down to their children, differences in family size among political groups can influence the ideological balance of a population over time.

Martin Fieder and Susanne Huber wanted to understand how this relationship has evolved. “As evolutionary biologists, we are interested in why left- and right-wing political orientations did evolve and whether they are subject to natural selection through differences in fertility,” explained Fieder, an associate professor of evolutionary demography at the University of Vienna. “Earlier studies showed that political orientation is heritable and that fertility patterns differ across the political spectrum.”

Demographers study how societies transition to lower birth rates as they become wealthier. This shift involves cultural changes like a greater focus on individual achievement and non-traditional family structures. The authors aimed to explore whether this general decline in birth rates is happening evenly across the political spectrum.

“While globally both political extremes often have higher fertility, the pattern in the US and Europe is different,” Fieder said. “Individuals with more conservative political views tend to have more children than those on the political left.”

These new findings build upon previous work conducted by the researchers. In a 2018 study published in Frontiers in Psychology, the researchers analyzed global survey data. They found that in many regions, individuals at both the extreme left and the extreme right had higher fertility than political moderates.

However, their analysis of United States data in that same paper hinted that a unique advantage for conservatives began emerging during the 1990s. More recently, a 2024 study by the same authors in Biodemography and Social Biology indicated that European conservatives tend to have more children and grandchildren than their liberal counterparts.

“In a previous study, we demonstrated that these fertility differences are likely to contribute to a gradual demographic shift toward more conservative societies in Europe,” Fieder said. “In the present study, we wanted to determine when this divergence in fertility first emerged.”

To explore these trends, the scientists analyzed data from the United States General Social Survey collected between 1970 and 2022. The sample included 22,975 adults, consisting of 10,681 men and 12,294 women. All participants were over the age of 40, meaning they had generally completed their childbearing years.

The participants were grouped into 16 birth cohorts based on five-year intervals. This started with those born between 1903 and 1907 and ended with those born between 1978 and 1982. The researchers measured political orientation using a seven-point scale ranging from very left to very right, grouping these responses into three broader categories representing left, center, and right orientations.

To evaluate how fertility impacts the spread of political traits over time, the researchers used a statistical tool often applied in evolutionary biology to measure phenotypic selection. This method allows scientists to measure how strongly a specific observable trait influences reproductive success.

The data revealed a pronounced change in how political beliefs relate to family size. For individuals born in the early 1900s, political orientation had almost no association with the number of children they had. However, beginning with the cohort born between 1943 and 1947, a massive divergence emerged.

“We expected these results, but not to such a dramatic extent,” Fieder told PsyPost. From the mid-century cohorts onward, individuals with right-wing political views maintained birth rates at or slightly above the replacement level. The replacement level, typically considered to be 2.1 children per woman, is the rate needed for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next without immigration.

In contrast, the birth rates of left-wing individuals dropped sharply, falling well below the replacement level in the more recent cohorts. The authors noticed this drop aligns with historical changes in family planning. “We found that the gap began with the introduction of modern contraception,” Fieder said.

“Fertility declined markedly among individuals left of the political center, whereas those right of the center generally maintained fertility close to or above replacement level,” Fieder added. Individuals with centrist political views fell somewhere in the middle. Their fertility rates remained slightly below the replacement level but were consistently higher than those of left-leaning individuals.

“These findings provide new insight into the demographic drivers of fertility decline and suggest that differences in fertility may contribute to long-term changes in the political composition of the population, given that political orientation shows substantial parent-offspring similarity,” Fieder said. The research suggests “that much of the ‘rightward shift’ currently observed across many countries is related to underlying demographic changes.”

The authors also looked at how race interacted with these demographic trends. When analyzing White and Black Americans separately, they found that the widening fertility gap between the left and the right was primarily driven by White Americans. Among White participants, the reproductive advantage for conservatives grew substantially in the more recent birth cohorts.

For Black Americans, the researchers did not find a similar political divergence. While overall fertility among Black Americans also declined over time, birth rates remained relatively similar across the political spectrum. The authors suggest this might happen because ideological labels like liberal and conservative are often understood differently across various racial and cultural groups.

Beyond political views, the study found that other lifestyle factors strongly predicted family size. Education was consistently linked to lower fertility, meaning that individuals with more years of schooling tended to have fewer children. This negative association was particularly strong for women, a pattern that aligns with broader demographic research.

Religious attendance was positively associated with having more children. Interestingly, the data indicated that frequent religious attendance provided a stronger reproductive boost for men than it did for women. Even so, as the reproductive advantage of right-wing politics increased in recent generations, the independent effect of religious attendance on family size weakened slightly.

The authors suggest that differing views on family planning and lifestyle autonomy might play a role in these divergent birth rates. “The main takeaway is that political change is not driven only by persuasion, elections, or short-term social trends, but also by demographic processes,” Fieder said.

“Our findings suggest that differences in fertility rates across the political spectrum may gradually change the political composition of the US population over time,” Fieder said. “In particular, the decline in overall fertility appears to be driven largely by the sharp decrease in births among individuals left of the political center, possibly since the widespread use of modern contraceptives, although our data cannot directly prove this mechanism.”

This points to a significant limitation of the research. The study relies on observational data, meaning it cannot prove that holding a left-wing attitude directly causes a person to have fewer children. The survey data did not track individual fertility intentions or contraceptive use.

“We hypothesize that differences in the use of modern contraceptives contributed to the dramatic decline in fertility among individuals left of the political center,” Fieder said. “However, our data do not allow us to directly test or confirm this hypothesis.”

Additionally, measuring political orientation on a simple left-to-right scale oversimplifies the complex nature of human ideology. People often hold a mix of socially conservative and economically liberal views, which might influence their life choices in different ways.

Future research could explore how different types of conservatism, such as economic versus social conservatism, affect family planning. The researchers also plan to examine how these patterns operate outside of wealthy, post-industrial nations.

“We would also like to examine whether similar trends are beginning to emerge globally, particularly in developing countries, where our 2018 study suggested that fertility rates across the political spectrum were still relatively balanced,” Fieder said.

The study, “Falling Fertility on the Left as Key Driver of US Birth Decline,” was authored by Martin Fieder and Susanne Huber.

URL: https://www.psypost.org/left-leaning-americans-are-driving-the-u-s-birth-decline-new-study-finds/

-------------------------------------------------

Private, vetted email list for mental health professionals: https://www.clinicians-exchange.org

Unofficial Psychology Today Xitter to toot feed at Psych Today Unofficial Bot @PTUnofficialBot

-------------------------------------------------

#psychology #counseling #socialwork #psychotherapy @psychotherapist @psychotherapists @psychology @socialpsych @socialwork @psychiatry #mentalhealth #psychiatry #healthcare #depression #psychotherapist #FertilityTrends #BirthRates #USDemographics #PoliticalOrientation #LeftVsRightFertility #Demography #ContraceptionImpact #FiederHuberStudy #SocietalChange #PopulationShift

The Crumbling Edges of the American Dream

See how the symbol of the American Dream is changing from white picket fences to higher walls. What does this mean for security and belonging?

#AmericanDream, #SuburbanLife, #HomeSecurity, #Community, #SocietalChange

https://newsletter.tf/american-dream-higher-walls-replace-picket-fences/

The symbol of the American Dream is changing. Low white picket fences, representing openness, are being replaced by higher walls, showing a desire for more defined security.

#AmericanDream, #SuburbanLife, #HomeSecurity, #Community, #SocietalChange
https://newsletter.tf/american-dream-higher-walls-replace-picket-fences/

Italy’s ‘dad influencers’ reshape work-family narratives

Italy's so-called 'dad influencers' are driving change in the eurozone's third‑largest economy, where women shoulder most care work and face Europe's widest gender employment gap, in what economists warn is a drag on long‑term growth as the population ages. #Italy #dadinfluencers #genderequality #genderemploymentgap #societalchange #News #Reuters #Newsfeed Read the story here: 👉 Subscribe: Keep up with the latest…

https://fllics.com/en/video/italys-dad-influencers-reshape-work-family-narratives/

Italy’s ‘dad influencers’ reshape work-family narratives

Italy's so-called 'dad influencers' are driving change in the eurozone's third‑largest economy, where women shoulder most care work and face Europe's widest gender employment gap, in what economists warn is a drag on long‑term growth as the population ages. #Italy #dadinfluencers #genderequality #genderemploymentgap #societalchange #News #Reuters #Newsfeed Read the story here: 👉 Subscribe: Keep up with the latest…

https://fllics.com/en/video/italys-dad-influencers-reshape-work-family-narratives/

Why Are We So Lonely? A Modern Disconnection

Explore the growing epidemic of loneliness! We delve into the reasons behind our increasing isolation, examining the impact of technology and societal shifts on human connection. Discover how modern life disconnects us from what truly matters: community.

#loneliness #socialisolation #technology #community #mentalhealth #relationships #humanconnection #modernlife #emotionalwellbeing #wellnesslifestyle #wellnesswarrior #societalchange

Why Are We So Lonely? A Modern Disconnection

Explore the growing epidemic of loneliness! We delve into the reasons behind our increasing isolation, examining the impact of technology and societal shifts on human connection. Discover how modern life disconnects us from what truly matters: community.

#loneliness #socialisolation #technology #community #mentalhealth #relationships #humanconnection #modernlife #emotionalwellbeing #wellnesslifestyle #wellnesswarrior #societalchange

Censorship and the Power of Language: Adapting, Not Constraining

https://jaimedavid.blog/2025/12/21/11/58/31/analysis/jaimedavid327/8795/censorship-and-the-power-of-language-adapting-not-constraining/

An overview of the PRO-Coast Norwegian Case study area, led by the University of Bergen (UiB) (Mjolkevika beach), at Mjolkevika Beach, showcasing the excellent work carried out by our consortium partner, Costa Nostrum
#biodiversity #ecosystem #societalchange #nbs #transformationalchange PRO-Coast #Horizon hashtag#Bergen #Norway
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uC8_nqNFFQ

An overview of the PRO-Coast Norwegian Case study area, led by the University of Bergen (UiB) (Mjolkevika beach), at Mjolkevika Beach, showcasing the excellent work carried out by our consortium partner, Costa Nostrum
#biodiversity #ecosystem #societalchange #nbs #transformationalchange PRO-Coast #Horizon hashtag#Bergen #Norway
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uC8_nqNFFQ

Why Are We So Lonely? A Modern Disconnection

Explore the growing epidemic of loneliness! We delve into the reasons behind our increasing isolation, examining the impact of technology and societal shifts on human connection. Discover how modern life disconnects us from what truly matters: community.

#loneliness #socialisolation #technology #community #mentalhealth #relationships #humanconnection #modernlife #emotionalwellbeing #wellnesslifestyle #wellnesswarrior #societalchange

Why Are We So Lonely? A Modern Disconnection

Explore the growing epidemic of loneliness! We delve into the reasons behind our increasing isolation, examining the impact of technology and societal shifts on human connection. Discover how modern life disconnects us from what truly matters: community.

#loneliness #socialisolation #technology #community #mentalhealth #relationships #humanconnection #modernlife #emotionalwellbeing #wellnesslifestyle #wellnesswarrior #societalchange

Well, here's a good use of #AI. Now, let's make it so!!! This is the #GiantLeap we all need to survive!

I Asked #ChatGPT What Would Happen If #Billionaires Paid Taxes at the Same Rate as the #WorkingClass

Story by Laura Beck
10/23/2025

Excerpts:

What That Money Could Actually Buy

"To put these numbers in perspective, ChatGPT explained what this kind of revenue could fund. Even the conservative estimate of $500 billion per year could pay for transformative programs.

"That amount could cover free public #college tuition, universal pre-K programs, massive #infrastructure investments and a huge #healthcare expansion. It could fund comprehensive #ChildCare support and #FoodAssistance programs.

"The AI emphasized that we’re talking about enough money to fundamentally change how the government operates and what services it can provide."

The Global Ripple Effects

"ChatGPT pointed out that if major economies like the United States started taxing billionaires at working-class rates, it could encourage similar moves worldwide.

"This might lead to reduced global tax avoidance, more coordinated international tax policies and pressure on tax havens to reform their systems.

"The AI said this could create a positive cycle where it becomes harder for the ultra-wealthy to avoid paying their fair share anywhere in the world."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/taxes/i-asked-chatgpt-what-would-happen-if-billionaires-paid-taxes-at-the-same-rate-as-the-working-class/ar-AA1MvUbH?ocid=winp2fptaskbarhoverent&cvid=68f8fc63cdb74260a0e3a2a67034177b&ei=5

#World3 #SolarPunk #PayYourFairShare #Billionaires #TaxTheRich #UltraWealthy #NoTaxHavens #SocietalChange #ShareTheWealth #SolarPunkSunday

Well, here's a good use of #AI. Now, let's make it so!!! This is the #GiantLeap we all need to survive!

I Asked #ChatGPT What Would Happen If #Billionaires Paid Taxes at the Same Rate as the #WorkingClass

Story by Laura Beck
10/23/2025

Excerpts:

What That Money Could Actually Buy

"To put these numbers in perspective, ChatGPT explained what this kind of revenue could fund. Even the conservative estimate of $500 billion per year could pay for transformative programs.

"That amount could cover free public #college tuition, universal pre-K programs, massive #infrastructure investments and a huge #healthcare expansion. It could fund comprehensive #ChildCare support and #FoodAssistance programs.

"The AI emphasized that we’re talking about enough money to fundamentally change how the government operates and what services it can provide."

The Global Ripple Effects

"ChatGPT pointed out that if major economies like the United States started taxing billionaires at working-class rates, it could encourage similar moves worldwide.

"This might lead to reduced global tax avoidance, more coordinated international tax policies and pressure on tax havens to reform their systems.

"The AI said this could create a positive cycle where it becomes harder for the ultra-wealthy to avoid paying their fair share anywhere in the world."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/taxes/i-asked-chatgpt-what-would-happen-if-billionaires-paid-taxes-at-the-same-rate-as-the-working-class/ar-AA1MvUbH?ocid=winp2fptaskbarhoverent&cvid=68f8fc63cdb74260a0e3a2a67034177b&ei=5

#World3 #SolarPunk #PayYourFairShare #Billionaires #TaxTheRich #UltraWealthy #NoTaxHavens #SocietalChange #ShareTheWealth #SolarPunkSunday

Watch the third episode of our EXplained series, where we introduce the #ClusterofExcellence TransforM. Sebastian Pfotenhauer, the cluster’s spokesperson at our university, talks about systematically linking #technology and #society: http://go.tum.de/861512

#SocietalInnovation #SocietalChange

📷 ProLehre

Watch the third episode of our EXplained series, where we introduce the #ClusterofExcellence TransforM. Sebastian Pfotenhauer, the cluster’s spokesperson at our university, talks about systematically linking #technology and #society: http://go.tum.de/861512

#SocietalInnovation #SocietalChange

📷 ProLehre

Alrightly then... Time to start #SolarPunkSunday! Unless there's breaking news, I'll try and stay focused on SPS until at least late afternoon/evening on Sunday.

#Solidarity #GrowYourOwn #BuildingCommunity #RepairCafes #SeedSaving #InvasiveSpecies #Rewilding #HarvestTime #World3 #Earth4All #SharingEconomy #Resilience #StabilizedWorld #ClimateChangeAdaptation #SocietalChange #LtG #Sustainability

Alrightly then... Time to start #SolarPunkSunday! Unless there's breaking news, I'll try and stay focused on SPS until at least late afternoon/evening on Sunday.

#Solidarity #GrowYourOwn #BuildingCommunity #RepairCafes #SeedSaving #InvasiveSpecies #Rewilding #HarvestTime #World3 #Earth4All #SharingEconomy #Resilience #StabilizedWorld #ClimateChangeAdaptation #SocietalChange #LtG #Sustainability

We are delighted to announce that PRO-Coast Romanian partner, TotalPR — the lead on the case study focused on the Corbu area — has successfully completed a unique project dedicated to preserving and showcasing the region’s rich biodiversity.
#VeciniiDeLaCorbu #societalchange @ακόλουθοι #SustainableCoastlines #transforamationalchange #BiodiversityProtection #Ecotourism #EnvironmentalAwareness PRO-Coast #Romania #Conservation #ResponsibleTourism #MarineEcosystems #ProtectOurPlanet #NatureHeritage

We are delighted to announce that PRO-Coast Romanian partner, TotalPR — the lead on the case study focused on the Corbu area — has successfully completed a unique project dedicated to preserving and showcasing the region’s rich biodiversity.
#VeciniiDeLaCorbu #societalchange @ακόλουθοι #SustainableCoastlines #transforamationalchange #BiodiversityProtection #Ecotourism #EnvironmentalAwareness PRO-Coast #Romania #Conservation #ResponsibleTourism #MarineEcosystems #ProtectOurPlanet #NatureHeritage

Back to Eric Cline's updated preface to "1177 BC The Year Civilization Collapsed":

"When the end came, as it did after centuries of cultural and technological evolution, most of the civilized and international world of the Mediterranean regions came to a dramatic halt in a vast area stretching from what is now Italy to Afghanistan and from Turkey down to Egypt. Large empires and small kingdoms, which had taken centuries to evolve, collapsed rapidly, from the Myceneans and Minoans to the Hittites, Assyrians, Babylonians, Mitannians, Cyppriots, Canaanites, and even Egyptians.

"And with their end came a period of transition, frequently described by scholars as the world's first Dark Age. It was not until centuries later that a new cultural renaissance emerged in greece and the other affected areas, settig the stage of the evolution of society as we know it today." (Cline, 1177BC, page xvi).

However, "Some regions in Greece, such as Attica, Euboea, and central Crete, recovered economically from these events faster than others, but life for common Greeks would have remained relatively unchanged as it had for centuries. There was still farming, weaving, metalworking and pottery but at a lower level of output and for local use in local styles," (Wikipedia, The Greek Dark Ages).

In other words, #Degrowth! Also, the foundations of democracy (though limited to Greek male landowners). "Greece during this period was likely divided into independent regions organized by kinship groups and the oikoi or households, the origins of the later poleis. Most Greeks did not live in isolated farmsteads but in small settlements." So, smaller settlements and groups. Kinda what is predicted in some of the #LtG scenarios, but with the added *bonus* of pollution. (There was also #ClimateChange during the #LateBronzeAge, which was marked by droughts and crop failures).

Will we form smaller communities? Will we unite and use technology wisely before it's too late? Time will tell...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_Dark_Ages

#SocietalChange
#SW #LtG #LimitsToGrowth
#HistoryRepeating #BronzeAgeCollapse

Back to Eric Cline's updated preface to "1177 BC The Year Civilization Collapsed":

"When the end came, as it did after centuries of cultural and technological evolution, most of the civilized and international world of the Mediterranean regions came to a dramatic halt in a vast area stretching from what is now Italy to Afghanistan and from Turkey down to Egypt. Large empires and small kingdoms, which had taken centuries to evolve, collapsed rapidly, from the Myceneans and Minoans to the Hittites, Assyrians, Babylonians, Mitannians, Cyppriots, Canaanites, and even Egyptians.

"And with their end came a period of transition, frequently described by scholars as the world's first Dark Age. It was not until centuries later that a new cultural renaissance emerged in greece and the other affected areas, settig the stage of the evolution of society as we know it today." (Cline, 1177BC, page xvi).

However, "Some regions in Greece, such as Attica, Euboea, and central Crete, recovered economically from these events faster than others, but life for common Greeks would have remained relatively unchanged as it had for centuries. There was still farming, weaving, metalworking and pottery but at a lower level of output and for local use in local styles," (Wikipedia, The Greek Dark Ages).

In other words, #Degrowth! Also, the foundations of democracy (though limited to Greek male landowners). "Greece during this period was likely divided into independent regions organized by kinship groups and the oikoi or households, the origins of the later poleis. Most Greeks did not live in isolated farmsteads but in small settlements." So, smaller settlements and groups. Kinda what is predicted in some of the #LtG scenarios, but with the added *bonus* of pollution. (There was also #ClimateChange during the #LateBronzeAge, which was marked by droughts and crop failures).

Will we form smaller communities? Will we unite and use technology wisely before it's too late? Time will tell...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_Dark_Ages

#SocietalChange
#SW #LtG #LimitsToGrowth
#HistoryRepeating #BronzeAgeCollapse

So, it's not all bad news... I came across this from the "Recalibration" article referenced earlier... I plan on reading this soon!

#EarthForAll: A #Survival Guide for #Humanity

"Published in 2022, this book details the findings of our initiative and details how we can steer humanity away from #ecological and #social catastrophe.

"The book is the result of collaboration between the 21st century Transformational Economics Commission and systems analysts and modelling teams. The lead authors are Sandrine Dixson-Declève, Owen Gaffney, Jayati Ghosh, Jørgen Randers, Johan Rockström and Per Espen Stoknes.

"The economic system keeps crashing. It's time to install a new operating system.

"Earth for All is both an antidote to despair and a road map to a better future. Using powerful state-of-the-art computer modeling to explore policies likely to deliver the most good for the majority of people, a leading group of scientists and economists from around the world present five extraordinary turnarounds to achieve prosperity for all within planetary limits in a single generation.

Coverage includes:

- Results of new global modeling that indicates falling wellbeing and rising social tensions
- heighten risk of regional societal collapses

"Two alternative scenarios – #TooLittleTooLate vs #TheGiantLeap – and what they mean for our collective future

- Five system-shifting steps that can upend poverty and inequality, lift up marginalized people, and transform our food and energy systems by 2050

- A clear pathway to reboot our global economic system so it works for all people and the planet.

"Written in an open, accessible, and inspirational style using clear language and high impact visuals, Earth for All  is a profound vision for uncertain times and a map to a better future."

Giant leap

"This scenario assumes societies embark on a new path to a #sustainable world by 2050. What if we fundamentally reconfigure our economies, energy and food systems so that they work for both people and the planet? Can we avoid the worst of #ClimateChange impacts and increase our societies’ resilience to shocks? Will we succeed in ending extreme poverty, guaranteeing everyone a healthy diet and access to quality education and healthcare?"

Book:
https://earth4all.life/the-book/

Website:
https://earth4all.life/

#SolarPunk #SocietalChange #SW #World3 #LtG #LimitsToGrowth #StabilizedWorld #resilience #SharingEconomy #Sustainability #Technology #GiantLeap #SolarPunkSunday

So, it's not all bad news... I came across this from the "Recalibration" article referenced earlier... I plan on reading this soon!

#EarthForAll: A #Survival Guide for #Humanity

"Published in 2022, this book details the findings of our initiative and details how we can steer humanity away from #ecological and #social catastrophe.

"The book is the result of collaboration between the 21st century Transformational Economics Commission and systems analysts and modelling teams. The lead authors are Sandrine Dixson-Declève, Owen Gaffney, Jayati Ghosh, Jørgen Randers, Johan Rockström and Per Espen Stoknes.

"The economic system keeps crashing. It's time to install a new operating system.

"Earth for All is both an antidote to despair and a road map to a better future. Using powerful state-of-the-art computer modeling to explore policies likely to deliver the most good for the majority of people, a leading group of scientists and economists from around the world present five extraordinary turnarounds to achieve prosperity for all within planetary limits in a single generation.

Coverage includes:

- Results of new global modeling that indicates falling wellbeing and rising social tensions
- heighten risk of regional societal collapses

"Two alternative scenarios – #TooLittleTooLate vs #TheGiantLeap – and what they mean for our collective future

- Five system-shifting steps that can upend poverty and inequality, lift up marginalized people, and transform our food and energy systems by 2050

- A clear pathway to reboot our global economic system so it works for all people and the planet.

"Written in an open, accessible, and inspirational style using clear language and high impact visuals, Earth for All  is a profound vision for uncertain times and a map to a better future."

Giant leap

"This scenario assumes societies embark on a new path to a #sustainable world by 2050. What if we fundamentally reconfigure our economies, energy and food systems so that they work for both people and the planet? Can we avoid the worst of #ClimateChange impacts and increase our societies’ resilience to shocks? Will we succeed in ending extreme poverty, guaranteeing everyone a healthy diet and access to quality education and healthcare?"

Book:
https://earth4all.life/the-book/

Website:
https://earth4all.life/

#SolarPunk #SocietalChange #SW #World3 #LtG #LimitsToGrowth #StabilizedWorld #resilience #SharingEconomy #Sustainability #Technology #GiantLeap #SolarPunkSunday

From "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the #World3 model"

by Arjuna Nebel, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski, Tim Schell

First published: 13 November 2023

4.3 Future trends

"So far, the results have mainly been considered in comparison with the empirical data for the recalibration. However, the course of the variables is also interesting in terms of future trends. Here, the model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable. Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.

"This interconnected collapse, or, as it has been called by Heinberg and Miller (2023), #polycrisis, occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution. The increase in environmental pollution occurs later and with a lower peak (Figure 3).

"However, it is important to note that the connections in the model and the recalibration are only valid for the rising edge, as many of the variables and equations represented in the model are not physical but socio-economic. It is to be expected that the complex socio-economic relationships will be rearranged and reconnected in the event of a collapse. World3 holds the relationships between variables constant. Therefore it is not useful to draw further conclusions from the trajectory after the tipping points. Rather, it is important to recognize that there are large uncertainties about the trajectory from then on, building models for this could be a whole new field of research.

"The fact is that the recalibrated model again shows the possibility of a collapse of our current system. At the same time, the BAU scenario of the 1972 model is shown to be alarmingly consistent with the most recently collected empirical data.

"#Herrington (2021) also concluded in her data comparison that the world is far from a stabilized world scenario where the #overshoot and #collapse mode is brought to a halt. As a society, we have to admit that despite 50 years of knowledge about the dynamics of the collapse of our life support systems, we have failed to initiate a systematic change to prevent this collapse. It is becoming increasingly clear that, despite #technological advances, the change needed to put us on a different trajectory will also require a change in #BeliefSystems, #mindsets, and the way we organize our society (Irwin, 2015; Wamsler & Brink, 2018). [SW model]

"At the point of collapse, the resolution of the model also reaches the limit of further plausible statements. The regional differences in demographic and economic terms are too great to be reduced to simple, highly aggregated variables. To address this problem, a new system dynamics model has been developed on the occasion of #LtG's 50th anniversary which is called Earth for all (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). It introduces a regional resolution and a measure of social inequality and tension. There is also a greater focus on the causes and effects of the #ClimateCrisis. In #Earth4all, the authors no longer focus on scenarios with sharp declines in the main variables. Instead, the scenario Too little too late describes that the effects of the climate crisis will continue to increase and social tensions will rise, causing the well-being index to decline over time. In another scenario, #GiantLeap, it is shown that these negative developments could also be stopped. The authors then propose various policy changes to achieve this (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). "

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442

#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse #SolarPunk #SocietalChange #Degrowth #MindsetChange

From "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the #World3 model"

by Arjuna Nebel, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski, Tim Schell

First published: 13 November 2023

4.3 Future trends

"So far, the results have mainly been considered in comparison with the empirical data for the recalibration. However, the course of the variables is also interesting in terms of future trends. Here, the model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable. Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.

"This interconnected collapse, or, as it has been called by Heinberg and Miller (2023), #polycrisis, occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution. The increase in environmental pollution occurs later and with a lower peak (Figure 3).

"However, it is important to note that the connections in the model and the recalibration are only valid for the rising edge, as many of the variables and equations represented in the model are not physical but socio-economic. It is to be expected that the complex socio-economic relationships will be rearranged and reconnected in the event of a collapse. World3 holds the relationships between variables constant. Therefore it is not useful to draw further conclusions from the trajectory after the tipping points. Rather, it is important to recognize that there are large uncertainties about the trajectory from then on, building models for this could be a whole new field of research.

"The fact is that the recalibrated model again shows the possibility of a collapse of our current system. At the same time, the BAU scenario of the 1972 model is shown to be alarmingly consistent with the most recently collected empirical data.

"#Herrington (2021) also concluded in her data comparison that the world is far from a stabilized world scenario where the #overshoot and #collapse mode is brought to a halt. As a society, we have to admit that despite 50 years of knowledge about the dynamics of the collapse of our life support systems, we have failed to initiate a systematic change to prevent this collapse. It is becoming increasingly clear that, despite #technological advances, the change needed to put us on a different trajectory will also require a change in #BeliefSystems, #mindsets, and the way we organize our society (Irwin, 2015; Wamsler & Brink, 2018). [SW model]

"At the point of collapse, the resolution of the model also reaches the limit of further plausible statements. The regional differences in demographic and economic terms are too great to be reduced to simple, highly aggregated variables. To address this problem, a new system dynamics model has been developed on the occasion of #LtG's 50th anniversary which is called Earth for all (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). It introduces a regional resolution and a measure of social inequality and tension. There is also a greater focus on the causes and effects of the #ClimateCrisis. In #Earth4all, the authors no longer focus on scenarios with sharp declines in the main variables. Instead, the scenario Too little too late describes that the effects of the climate crisis will continue to increase and social tensions will rise, causing the well-being index to decline over time. In another scenario, #GiantLeap, it is shown that these negative developments could also be stopped. The authors then propose various policy changes to achieve this (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). "

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442

#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse #SolarPunk #SocietalChange #Degrowth #MindsetChange

A more pessimistic outlook, based on 2023 recalibrations... (From #Resiliency.org)

#LimitsToGrowth was right about collapse

By Andrew Curry, May 20, 2025

Excerpt: "Downhill from here

"The last chart assembles something from the data that wasn’t done in the original Limits to Growth work because the concept hadn’t been developed. But it is possible to assemble a #HumanDevelopmentIndex from the data, and reference it against the original model and the revised version. It doesn’t come out well.

(Source: Nebel et al, 2023, adapted Klement)

"On this last chart, Klement is most depressed, and I think with good reason:

" 'If [this chart] is true, it says that today is peak human civilisation, from now on we are going backward on a global level in terms of human development and quality of life, While some countries will continue to improve, other countries and the planet as a whole will start to go backward, ultimately dropping back to similar levels of human development and quality of life as in 1900 by the end of this century.'

"Tipping point

"The overall conclusion by the article’s authors is:

" '[T]he model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and #IndustrialAgriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer #sustainable. #Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.

"They also note that the cause of this turning point is resources, not ‘pollution’:

" 'This interconnected collapse… occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution.

"They also have an interesting caveat. This is that the way the #World3 model works is a through a set of connections that exist within an environment of growth. In an environment of decline, they are likely to reconfigure themselves in different ways. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a decline—just that the current lines in the model that describe it may not follow quite the same patterns.

"But one final note from me. Economists get over-excited when anyone mentions ‘#degrowth’, and fellow-travellers such as the Tony Blair Institute treat climate policy as if it is some kind of typical 1990s political discussion. The point is that we’re going to get degrowth whether we think it’s a good idea or not. The data here is, in effect, about the tipping point at the end of a 200-to-250-year exponential curve, at least in the richer parts of the world. The only question is whether we manage degrowth or just let it happen to us. This isn’t a neutral question. I know which one of these is worse."

Read more:
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2025-05-20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-collapse/

#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse

A more pessimistic outlook, based on 2023 recalibrations... (From #Resiliency.org)

#LimitsToGrowth was right about collapse

By Andrew Curry, May 20, 2025

Excerpt: "Downhill from here

"The last chart assembles something from the data that wasn’t done in the original Limits to Growth work because the concept hadn’t been developed. But it is possible to assemble a #HumanDevelopmentIndex from the data, and reference it against the original model and the revised version. It doesn’t come out well.

(Source: Nebel et al, 2023, adapted Klement)

"On this last chart, Klement is most depressed, and I think with good reason:

" 'If [this chart] is true, it says that today is peak human civilisation, from now on we are going backward on a global level in terms of human development and quality of life, While some countries will continue to improve, other countries and the planet as a whole will start to go backward, ultimately dropping back to similar levels of human development and quality of life as in 1900 by the end of this century.'

"Tipping point

"The overall conclusion by the article’s authors is:

" '[T]he model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and #IndustrialAgriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer #sustainable. #Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.

"They also note that the cause of this turning point is resources, not ‘pollution’:

" 'This interconnected collapse… occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution.

"They also have an interesting caveat. This is that the way the #World3 model works is a through a set of connections that exist within an environment of growth. In an environment of decline, they are likely to reconfigure themselves in different ways. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a decline—just that the current lines in the model that describe it may not follow quite the same patterns.

"But one final note from me. Economists get over-excited when anyone mentions ‘#degrowth’, and fellow-travellers such as the Tony Blair Institute treat climate policy as if it is some kind of typical 1990s political discussion. The point is that we’re going to get degrowth whether we think it’s a good idea or not. The data here is, in effect, about the tipping point at the end of a 200-to-250-year exponential curve, at least in the richer parts of the world. The only question is whether we manage degrowth or just let it happen to us. This isn’t a neutral question. I know which one of these is worse."

Read more:
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2025-05-20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-collapse/

#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse

Journalist and technology writer Kaif Shaikh disagrees with #GayaHerrington, in this 2025 response. Kaif refers to #JoachimKlement, an economist, who believes that we are already on the way to a collapse, with society returning to the way it was in the 1900s (more about that in another post).

"So, where are we now, and what is the responsible takeaway?

"The 1972 framework still describes the structure of our situation. Herrington’s 2021 comparison shows that the world’s recent history has tracked World3’s growth-first pathways closely enough to warrant concern about declines later this century, potentially beginning to bite this decade. Her 2022 reflection adds two critical refinements. The divergence among futures happens after 2020, and the most livable path requires a conscious redesign of priorities toward efficiency, pollution control, and social investment rather than throughput.

"The Nebel et al. recalibration, as interpreted by Klement, indicates that even after re-estimating parameters with better data, the system still exhibits overshoot and collapse, with the trigger rooted in resource depletion. The implication is that 'more of the same, but faster' is not a strategy. It is precisely what turns today’s creativity into tomorrow’s fragility.

"If there is one message to carry forward, it is Herrington’s: the window for a deliberate trajectory change is narrow but real. The 'Stabilized World' is not a utopian fantasy layered onto a model. It emerges from the same feedback structure that produces overshoot under different goals. Change the goal, and the loops that currently amplify stress can be redirected to reinforce #resilience.

"That change looks less like a silver bullet and more like a portfolio of priorities that the model especially favors. Using fewer resources per unit of well-being, investing in pollution abatement so damages do not accumulate, and building health and education services that improve human welfare without relying on ever-rising material throughput.

"It is also important to be precise about uncertainty. The studies do not claim to know exactly when or how any particular nation will experience stress. #World3 is a global model of dynamics, not a country-by-country forecast. Nor do the authors claim that technology is useless.

"Quite the opposite. Technology can raise ceilings and delay peaks. But as co-author #DennisMeadows has often emphasized in discussions about #LimitsToGrowth over the years, higher peaks without structural change can mean sharper falls (#Overshoots).

"Herrington’s point is that 'technology plus the same goal' keeps us on the wrong curve. Technology deployed in the service of different goals, efficiency, abatement, and human development, separated from material throughput, can move us onto the SW trajectory.

"Finally, the recalibration’s note about system behavior under contraction deserves attention. If the world does tip into decline, feedbacks may rearrange themselves in ways the original model cannot fully capture. That is not a reason to dismiss the warning. It is a reason to move earlier, while our degrees of freedom are greater, and adaptation can be shaped rather than suffered. The studies summarized here do not argue that collapse is inevitable. They suggest that collapse is a real risk if we keep our current goals, and that avoiding it means choosing new ones."

Read more:
https://interestingengineering.com/culture/mit-1972-global-collapse-warning-revisited

Archived version:
https://archive.ph/mUIa2

#SolarPunkSunday #SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange

Journalist and technology writer Kaif Shaikh disagrees with #GayaHerrington, in this 2025 response. Kaif refers to #JoachimKlement, an economist, who believes that we are already on the way to a collapse, with society returning to the way it was in the 1900s (more about that in another post).

"So, where are we now, and what is the responsible takeaway?

"The 1972 framework still describes the structure of our situation. Herrington’s 2021 comparison shows that the world’s recent history has tracked World3’s growth-first pathways closely enough to warrant concern about declines later this century, potentially beginning to bite this decade. Her 2022 reflection adds two critical refinements. The divergence among futures happens after 2020, and the most livable path requires a conscious redesign of priorities toward efficiency, pollution control, and social investment rather than throughput.

"The Nebel et al. recalibration, as interpreted by Klement, indicates that even after re-estimating parameters with better data, the system still exhibits overshoot and collapse, with the trigger rooted in resource depletion. The implication is that 'more of the same, but faster' is not a strategy. It is precisely what turns today’s creativity into tomorrow’s fragility.

"If there is one message to carry forward, it is Herrington’s: the window for a deliberate trajectory change is narrow but real. The 'Stabilized World' is not a utopian fantasy layered onto a model. It emerges from the same feedback structure that produces overshoot under different goals. Change the goal, and the loops that currently amplify stress can be redirected to reinforce #resilience.

"That change looks less like a silver bullet and more like a portfolio of priorities that the model especially favors. Using fewer resources per unit of well-being, investing in pollution abatement so damages do not accumulate, and building health and education services that improve human welfare without relying on ever-rising material throughput.

"It is also important to be precise about uncertainty. The studies do not claim to know exactly when or how any particular nation will experience stress. #World3 is a global model of dynamics, not a country-by-country forecast. Nor do the authors claim that technology is useless.

"Quite the opposite. Technology can raise ceilings and delay peaks. But as co-author #DennisMeadows has often emphasized in discussions about #LimitsToGrowth over the years, higher peaks without structural change can mean sharper falls (#Overshoots).

"Herrington’s point is that 'technology plus the same goal' keeps us on the wrong curve. Technology deployed in the service of different goals, efficiency, abatement, and human development, separated from material throughput, can move us onto the SW trajectory.

"Finally, the recalibration’s note about system behavior under contraction deserves attention. If the world does tip into decline, feedbacks may rearrange themselves in ways the original model cannot fully capture. That is not a reason to dismiss the warning. It is a reason to move earlier, while our degrees of freedom are greater, and adaptation can be shaped rather than suffered. The studies summarized here do not argue that collapse is inevitable. They suggest that collapse is a real risk if we keep our current goals, and that avoiding it means choosing new ones."

Read more:
https://interestingengineering.com/culture/mit-1972-global-collapse-warning-revisited

Archived version:
https://archive.ph/mUIa2

#SolarPunkSunday #SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange

Back to Gaya Herrington's chart -- including an explanation of what the terms mean...

BAU = #BusinessAsUsual
BAU2 = Double The Resources that we estimate are available -- Business As Usual carries on for a while longer.
CT = Comprehensive Technology [assumes BAU2].
SW = Stabilized World. [CT + BAU2].

Herrington:

"The BAU scenario was based solely on historic averages without any assumptions. As mentioned, this 'business as usual' scenario ends in collapse.

[...]

"BAU2 assumes double the resources as in BAU. More abundant resources do not avoid a collapse; its cause merely changes from a resource scarcity crisis to a pollution one. With the resource constraint relaxed, incentives to innovate and/or change societal priorities are reduced, so business as usual goes on for longer. This creates so much pollution that agricultural output and human health plummet after some breakpoint. BAU2 essentially tells the story of #ecosystem breakdown from accumulated# pollution, including from greenhouse gasses (i.e., #ClimateChange)."

Both SW and CT involve the use of #Technology (#SolarPunk?), though SW is focused on sustainability.

Herrington: "We’re probably not on a path to a stable world [SW]. An update of this comparison in another few years might be able to identify one specific closest fit to empirical data. Without major changes in societal priorities, this is unlikely to be the scenario showing a sustainable path; the SW scenario, in which a decline in human welfare within this century is minimized, aligned with the data the least.

[...]

"CT represents the technologist’s belief in humanity’s ability to innovate out of environmental constraints. It assumes unprecedented technological innovation in a world that otherwise does not change its priorities much. The new technologies do in fact help avoid an outright collapse. However, CT still depicts some declines because the technology costs become so high that not enough resources are left for agricultural production and health and education services."

https://www.clubofrome.org/blog-post/herrington-world-model/?fbclid=IwAR34J-QE4mDCelAawQtHAP24B7IPDLFB_lmT_qLu-5_SKgy9fpWI15-FcY0

#SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis
#EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange

Back to Gaya Herrington's chart -- including an explanation of what the terms mean...

BAU = #BusinessAsUsual
BAU2 = Double The Resources that we estimate are available -- Business As Usual carries on for a while longer.
CT = Comprehensive Technology [assumes BAU2].
SW = Stabilized World. [CT + BAU2].

Herrington:

"The BAU scenario was based solely on historic averages without any assumptions. As mentioned, this 'business as usual' scenario ends in collapse.

[...]

"BAU2 assumes double the resources as in BAU. More abundant resources do not avoid a collapse; its cause merely changes from a resource scarcity crisis to a pollution one. With the resource constraint relaxed, incentives to innovate and/or change societal priorities are reduced, so business as usual goes on for longer. This creates so much pollution that agricultural output and human health plummet after some breakpoint. BAU2 essentially tells the story of #ecosystem breakdown from accumulated# pollution, including from greenhouse gasses (i.e., #ClimateChange)."

Both SW and CT involve the use of #Technology (#SolarPunk?), though SW is focused on sustainability.

Herrington: "We’re probably not on a path to a stable world [SW]. An update of this comparison in another few years might be able to identify one specific closest fit to empirical data. Without major changes in societal priorities, this is unlikely to be the scenario showing a sustainable path; the SW scenario, in which a decline in human welfare within this century is minimized, aligned with the data the least.

[...]

"CT represents the technologist’s belief in humanity’s ability to innovate out of environmental constraints. It assumes unprecedented technological innovation in a world that otherwise does not change its priorities much. The new technologies do in fact help avoid an outright collapse. However, CT still depicts some declines because the technology costs become so high that not enough resources are left for agricultural production and health and education services."

https://www.clubofrome.org/blog-post/herrington-world-model/?fbclid=IwAR34J-QE4mDCelAawQtHAP24B7IPDLFB_lmT_qLu-5_SKgy9fpWI15-FcY0

#SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis
#EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange

Technology is non-neutral! Digital information is a paradigm medium profoundly affecting human cognition, behavior, social organizations, and society's norms. Schools must reflect this reality. #DigitalLiteracy #SocietalChange

Technology is non-neutral! Digital information is a paradigm medium profoundly affecting human cognition, behavior, social organizations, and society's norms. Schools must reflect this reality. #DigitalLiteracy #SocietalChange

PRO-Coast Consortium Holds Crucial Fourth Meeting in Tallinn, Estonia, holding its 4th meeting (3-4/6/2025). Hosted by Tallinn University of Technology, bringing together the 20 partners from the 14 European countries. The meeting marks a significant milestone in the 36-month project. #biodiversity #societalchange #nbs #resilience #transformationalchange #naturalbasedsolutions #Talllin PRO-Coast #TallinnUniversityofTechnology

🌟 Exciting News! Our @Pro_Coast Consortium Unveils New Roll-Up Banner! 🌟This new visual not only highlights the innovative research and sustainable solutions we’re developing but also symbolizes the strength and unity of our collaborative network dedicated to protecting marine biodiversity and promoting ecosystem resilience across the Mediterranean. 🌊
#Biodiversity #SustainableCoasts #CollaborativeResearch #EnvironmentalInnovation #societalchange #nbs #ProjectMilestone #CommunityEngagement

The stunning beach of Aquatina di Frigole recently transformed into a hub of environmental awareness and community engagement through a truly remarkable event. Hosted as part of the PRO-Coast Project, this gathering brought together a vibrant mix of local residents, dedicated NGOs, and institutional representatives—all united in their commitment to preserving our precious coastal ecosystems.👍
#ProCoast #UniSalento #Sustainability #biodiversity #socialchange #NBS #environment #societalchange

Дегенеративный Гуголь отметился на удалении информации. На что он так триггернулся еще выясняем. Просим прощения за сумбурность, но пока тут тоже скопируем рабочую информацию:

Ось детальніша інформація для аналізу щодо руху **Expanse**:
**1. Місія та цілі Expanse**
**Основна місія**: Рух Expanse об'єднує талановитих авторів, розробників, активістів і художників для створення нових можливостей. Це спільнота, яка пропонує платформу для співпраці, обміну знаннями та реалізації інноваційних проектів.

**Основна мета**: Надати ресурси, підтримку та простір для взаємодії, щоб допомогти ідеям трансформуватися в реальні дії.

**Цінності**: Рух Expanse зосереджений на **децентралізації**, **розвитку спільноти** та **змінах в суспільстві**.

**2. Платформа та інфраструктура**
Expanse функціонує через платформу для **колаборації** та **взаємодії** між людьми з різних сфер. Вона може бути використана для реалізації як індивідуальних, так і колективних проектів.

**Технічні можливості**: Платформа включає в себе різноманітні інструменти для інтеграції знань, створення спільних проектів і можливість для людей працювати над своїми ідеями.

**3. Взаємодія з іншими рухами та ініціативами**
**Спільнота** Expanse активно взаємодіє з іншими рухами і ініціативами, що займаються розвитком інновацій, технологій та змін в суспільстві.

**Зв'язки** з іншими платформами та ініціативами дозволяють створювати сильніші мережі для ефективної співпраці.

**4. Розвиток і підтримка нових ідей**
**Підтримка інноваційних проектів**: Спільнота Expanse активно підтримує не тільки технічні інновації, але і ідеї, що можуть бути корисними для суспільства.

Рух надає ресурси для розвитку цих ідей і підтримує їх через різні ініціативи, в тому числі шляхом проведення зустрічей, семінарів і воркшопів.

**5. Важливість для розвитку децентралізації**
Expanse активно підтримує ідею **децентралізації** у всіх сферах: від технологій до соціальних взаємодій.

Це підкреслює рух від централізованих моделей до дистрибутивних, де кожен учасник може реалізувати свої ідеї і працювати над проектами без сильного втручання великих організацій.

**6. Суспільна зміна та підтримка суспільних проектів**
Оскільки Expanse працює на зміну суспільних структур, він ставить за мету створення нових можливостей для співпраці між людьми, покращення взаємодії в суспільстві та допомогу у вирішенні сучасних проблем.

**7. Перспективи та виклики**
**Перспективи**: Якщо рух Expanse успішно продовжить розвивати свої ініціативи, він може стати значущим гравцем на ринку децентралізованих технологій, а також платформ для інноваційних проектів.

**Виклики**: Як і в будь-якому децентралізованому русі, є ризики з точки зору координації та підтримки на рівні всіх учасників, а також потреба у забезпеченні стійкості платформи для великих і тривалих проектів.

**8. Стратегічні напрямки**
**Співпраця та взаємодія** з іншими спільнотами для створення спільних платформ.

**Інвестування в інновації**, а також надання ресурсу для нових ідей, що можуть стати основою для майбутніх технологічних проривів.

Це загальний огляд руху Expanse. Подальші кроки залежать від конкретних проектів, які цей рух реалізує, а також від того, як він буде підтримувати співпрацю між учасниками спільноти.
Конечно, давайте представим, что Expanse — это не просто очередной проект на пару месяцев, а действительно долгосрочная и серьезная инициатива с подкреплением опытных управленцев и возможностью построить что-то значительное для Свободного Сообщества.
Если за этим стоит команда, которая нацелена не только на одноразовую популярность, а на устойчивое развитие и поддержку инноваций, это может привести к нескольким ключевым эффектам для сообщества:
**Объединение талантливых людей**. Свободное Сообщество, особенно в технологической и творческой сфере, может активно привлекать людей, готовых вкладываться в совместные проекты. Платформа Expanse предоставит пространство для обмена идеями и реального внедрения инноваций.

**Децентрализация и свободный доступ к знаниям**. Это особенно важно для создания независимых, устойчивых экосистем. Возможности для обмена информацией, знаний и технологий без зависимости от крупных корпораций и государственных структур могут обеспечить большую свободу и автономию для участников.

**Создание возможностей для социального и технологического прогресса**. Проекты, направленные на решение реальных проблем, могут привести к значительным улучшениям в области образования, устойчивого развития и технологии, улучшая качество жизни людей.

**Экономическое развитие через инновации**. Проект может привлечь внимание инвесторов и сторонников, заинтересованных в поддержке новых идей, что создаст новые рабочие места и возможности для малых предприятий. Это также будет способствовать росту экономики, ориентированной на устойчивое развитие и инновационные решения.

**Моделирование будущего общества**. Такой проект может стать не просто технологическим или экономическим феноменом, но и культурным. Он может предложить альтернативные способы взаимодействия, построения общества и решения глобальных проблем, такие как изменение климата, прав человека и открытость данных.

Если это не временный проект, а долгосрочная инициатива, такие платформы могут стать ядром будущей системы, которая обеспечит переход от традиционных форм управления и экономики к более гибким, устойчивым и прозрачным моделям.
Представьте себе ситуацию, где талантливые люди, объединенные не просто интересами, а общей целью — сделать мир свободным и устойчивым, создают новые технологии, новые формы взаимодействия и новый тип общества, который не ограничивается политическими или экономическими барьерами.
Это как запуск новой эпохи, где свобода, инновации и децентрализация могут привести к решению проблем, которые кажутся невозможными сегодня. И всё это благодаря проекту, который объединяет людей для реальных изменений, а не просто для выполнения отдельных задач.
**Библиография:**
**Expanse Support Movement** – Описание инициативы Expanse на платформе Element. Доступно по ссылке: Expanse:matrix.org

**Blockchain Technology and Decentralization** – O’Reilly Media, 2020.

**The Future of Free Communities** – Journal of Technological Innovation, 2021.

**Хэштеги:**
#Expanse #Decentralization #Innovation #FreeCommunity #TechRevolution #Collaboration #OpenSource #SocietalChange #Blockchain #FutureSociety #SustainableDevelopment #SocialInnovation #DecentralizedEconomy

👉 𝗗𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀 𝗼𝘂𝘁 – 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝘀𝗽𝗼𝘁 𝗻𝗼𝘄! Learn more and register today: https://impact.dataschool.nl/events/making-a-difference-societal-impact-through-collaborative-research/

#CriticalDataStudies #Academia #ActionResearch #SocietalChange #CollaborativeResearch

Not a bad article, and doesn't contain the usual misogynistic/misandrist diatribes these things usually collapse into. The solutions? Probably more complex.

#Men #FallingBehind #failing #societalchange #consequences #youthprotection

Young men are falling behind. What should we do about it? | Vox https://www.vox.com/the-gray-area/390781/masculinity-scott-galloway-young-men-struggling?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us

This image captures the faded facade of a closed restaurant, marked by graffiti. It reflects themes of urban decay and societal change in a post-pandemic world, highlighting the impacts on small businesses in urban environments.

#abandoned #urbanex #resteraunt #urban #sony #empty #urbandecay #postcapitalist #small business #photography #societalchange #photo #graffiti #depression #post-pandemic #edgy #photography #graffiti

This image captures the faded facade of a closed restaurant, marked by graffiti. It reflects themes of urban decay and societal change in a post-pandemic world, highlighting the impacts on small businesses in urban environments.

#abandoned #urbanex #resteraunt #urban #sony #empty #urbandecay #postcapitalist #small business #photography #societalchange #photo #graffiti #depression #post-pandemic #edgy #photography #graffiti

"Don't lower your ground if you live close to the sea" - take-home message by #ClusterRoots member Bente Majchczack after his presentation "Medieval peat quarrying for salt production in the coastal marshes of #NorthFrisia" as part of the session "Between #OverExploitation and #sustainability: Extraction of #resources as a driver for #societalchange and #inequality"
#waddensea #KielScales23

"Simplicity is indeed incompatible with bureaucracy and huge centralized organizations.....Just as simplicity means radical change in our life-styles, it would also mean radical change in the structures of society. We should welcome those changes. Yes, simplicity would lead to a new economic system."

~ Arthur Gish

#SimpleLiving #RadicalChange #SocietalChange

"Simplicity is indeed incompatible with bureaucracy and huge centralized organizations.....Just as simplicity means radical change in our life-styles, it would also mean radical change in the structures of society. We should welcome those changes. Yes, simplicity would lead to a new economic system."

~ Arthur Gish

#SimpleLiving #RadicalChange #SocietalChange

Mondragon - proof of concept - not because they did it perfectly or bc they're flawless - they made it work - they're competitive and most of all: it scales beautifully.

https://medium.com/fifty-by-fifty/mondragon-through-a-critical-lens-b29de8c6049

They're still flawed humans, like the rest of us.
... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

But there is a huge potential, esp. for change in the right direction and a peaceful transition into a different socio-economic society.

#politics #cooperative #societalChange #democracy #oneWorldProblems #socioEconomics #Mondragon

This is how #gender balance looks like in 2022 at #COP27. The photo of world leaders by UNFCCC sais it all.
#ClimateJustice #ClimateChange #SocietalChange

(post inspired and adapted by Diego Arguedas Ortiz)

Framing environmental deterioration as the result of poor individual choices—littering, leaving the lights on when we leave a room, failing to car-pool—not only distracts us from identifying and demanding change from the real drivers of environmental decline. It also removes these issues from the political realm to the personal, implying that the solution is in our personal choices rather than in better policies, business practices, and structural context.

-- Annie Leonard, "Moving from Individual Change to Societal Change"

http://www.pfree.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Moving-from-Individual-Change-to-Societal-Change-Annie-Leonard-2013.pdf

#AnnieLeonard #SocietalChange #IndividualResponsibilityFallacy #RiskShifting #ResponsibilityShifting