#societalchange — Public Fediverse posts

Italy’s ‘dad influencers’ reshape work-family narratives

Italy's so-called 'dad influencers' are driving change in the eurozone's third‑largest economy, where women shoulder most care work and face Europe's widest gender employment gap, in what economists warn is a drag on long‑term growth as the population ages. #Italy #dadinfluencers #genderequality #genderemploymentgap #societalchange #News #Reuters #Newsfeed Read the story here: 👉 Subscribe: Keep up with the latest…

https://fllics.com/en/video/italys-dad-influencers-reshape-work-family-narratives/

We Don’t Have a Mental Health Crisis—We Have a Disconnection Crisis

https://pagangrove.wordpress.com/2026/04/16/we-dont-have-a-mental-health-crisis-we-have-a-disconnection-crisis/

Why Are We So Lonely? A Modern Disconnection

Explore the growing epidemic of loneliness! We delve into the reasons behind our increasing isolation, examining the impact of technology and societal shifts on human connection. Discover how modern life disconnects us from what truly matters: community.

#loneliness #socialisolation #technology #community #mentalhealth #relationships #humanconnection #modernlife #emotionalwellbeing #wellnesslifestyle #wellnesswarrior #societalchange

Chúng ta có thể là thế hệ cuối cùng trải nghiệm cuộc sống con người "bình thường" trước ngưỡng Cực điểm Công nghệ (Technological Singularity). Mọi khía cạnh quen thuộc đang thay đổi nhanh chóng, có thể dẫn đến những hình thái chiến tranh mới, lan rộng vào mọi ngóc ngách cuộc sống và tâm trí chúng ta. Bạn nghĩ sao?

#Singularity #Technology #FutureOfHumanity #SocietalChange #CuocSongBinhThuong #CôngNghệ #TươngLaiConNgười #ThayĐổiXãHội #CựcĐiểmCôngNghệ

https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comment

Censorship and the Power of Language: Adapting, Not Constraining

https://jaimedavid.blog/2025/12/21/11/58/31/analysis/jaimedavid327/8795/censorship-and-the-power-of-language-adapting-not-constraining/

An overview of the PRO-Coast Norwegian Case study area, led by the University of Bergen (UiB) (Mjolkevika beach), at Mjolkevika Beach, showcasing the excellent work carried out by our consortium partner, Costa Nostrum
#biodiversity #ecosystem #societalchange #nbs #transformationalchange PRO-Coast #Horizon hashtag#Bergen #Norway
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uC8_nqNFFQ

Why Are We So Lonely? A Modern Disconnection

Explore the growing epidemic of loneliness! We delve into the reasons behind our increasing isolation, examining the impact of technology and societal shifts on human connection. Discover how modern life disconnects us from what truly matters: community.

#loneliness #socialisolation #technology #community #mentalhealth #relationships #humanconnection #modernlife #emotionalwellbeing #wellnesslifestyle #wellnesswarrior #societalchange

Well, here's a good use of #AI. Now, let's make it so!!! This is the #GiantLeap we all need to survive!

I Asked #ChatGPT What Would Happen If #Billionaires Paid Taxes at the Same Rate as the #WorkingClass

Story by Laura Beck
10/23/2025

Excerpts:

What That Money Could Actually Buy

"To put these numbers in perspective, ChatGPT explained what this kind of revenue could fund. Even the conservative estimate of $500 billion per year could pay for transformative programs.

"That amount could cover free public #college tuition, universal pre-K programs, massive #infrastructure investments and a huge #healthcare expansion. It could fund comprehensive #ChildCare support and #FoodAssistance programs.

"The AI emphasized that we’re talking about enough money to fundamentally change how the government operates and what services it can provide."

The Global Ripple Effects

"ChatGPT pointed out that if major economies like the United States started taxing billionaires at working-class rates, it could encourage similar moves worldwide.

"This might lead to reduced global tax avoidance, more coordinated international tax policies and pressure on tax havens to reform their systems.

"The AI said this could create a positive cycle where it becomes harder for the ultra-wealthy to avoid paying their fair share anywhere in the world."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/taxes/i-asked-chatgpt-what-would-happen-if-billionaires-paid-taxes-at-the-same-rate-as-the-working-class/ar-AA1MvUbH?ocid=winp2fptaskbarhoverent&cvid=68f8fc63cdb74260a0e3a2a67034177b&ei=5

#World3 #SolarPunk #PayYourFairShare #Billionaires #TaxTheRich #UltraWealthy #NoTaxHavens #SocietalChange #ShareTheWealth #SolarPunkSunday

Watch the third episode of our EXplained series, where we introduce the #ClusterofExcellence TransforM. Sebastian Pfotenhauer, the cluster’s spokesperson at our university, talks about systematically linking #technology and #society: http://go.tum.de/861512

#SocietalInnovation #SocietalChange

📷 ProLehre

Watch the third episode of our EXplained series, where we introduce the #ClusterofExcellence TransforM. Sebastian Pfotenhauer, the cluster’s spokesperson at our university, talks about systematically linking #technology and #society: http://go.tum.de/861512

#SocietalInnovation #SocietalChange

📷 ProLehre

Watch the third episode of our EXplained series, where we introduce the #ClusterofExcellence TransforM. Sebastian Pfotenhauer, the cluster’s spokesperson at our university, talks about systematically linking #technology and #society: http://go.tum.de/861512

#SocietalInnovation #SocietalChange

📷 ProLehre

Watch the third episode of our EXplained series, where we introduce the #ClusterofExcellence TransforM. Sebastian Pfotenhauer, the cluster’s spokesperson at our university, talks about systematically linking #technology and #society: http://go.tum.de/861512

#SocietalInnovation #SocietalChange

📷 ProLehre

Watch the third episode of our EXplained series, where we introduce the #ClusterofExcellence TransforM. Sebastian Pfotenhauer, the cluster’s spokesperson at our university, talks about systematically linking #technology and #society: http://go.tum.de/861512

#SocietalInnovation #SocietalChange

📷 ProLehre

Alrightly then... Time to start #SolarPunkSunday! Unless there's breaking news, I'll try and stay focused on SPS until at least late afternoon/evening on Sunday.

#Solidarity #GrowYourOwn #BuildingCommunity #RepairCafes #SeedSaving #InvasiveSpecies #Rewilding #HarvestTime #World3 #Earth4All #SharingEconomy #Resilience #StabilizedWorld #ClimateChangeAdaptation #SocietalChange #LtG #Sustainability

We are delighted to announce that PRO-Coast Romanian partner, TotalPR — the lead on the case study focused on the Corbu area — has successfully completed a unique project dedicated to preserving and showcasing the region’s rich biodiversity.
#VeciniiDeLaCorbu #societalchange @ακόλουθοι #SustainableCoastlines #transforamationalchange #BiodiversityProtection #Ecotourism #EnvironmentalAwareness PRO-Coast #Romania #Conservation #ResponsibleTourism #MarineEcosystems #ProtectOurPlanet #NatureHeritage

Back to Eric Cline's updated preface to "1177 BC The Year Civilization Collapsed":

"When the end came, as it did after centuries of cultural and technological evolution, most of the civilized and international world of the Mediterranean regions came to a dramatic halt in a vast area stretching from what is now Italy to Afghanistan and from Turkey down to Egypt. Large empires and small kingdoms, which had taken centuries to evolve, collapsed rapidly, from the Myceneans and Minoans to the Hittites, Assyrians, Babylonians, Mitannians, Cyppriots, Canaanites, and even Egyptians.

"And with their end came a period of transition, frequently described by scholars as the world's first Dark Age. It was not until centuries later that a new cultural renaissance emerged in greece and the other affected areas, settig the stage of the evolution of society as we know it today." (Cline, 1177BC, page xvi).

However, "Some regions in Greece, such as Attica, Euboea, and central Crete, recovered economically from these events faster than others, but life for common Greeks would have remained relatively unchanged as it had for centuries. There was still farming, weaving, metalworking and pottery but at a lower level of output and for local use in local styles," (Wikipedia, The Greek Dark Ages).

In other words, #Degrowth! Also, the foundations of democracy (though limited to Greek male landowners). "Greece during this period was likely divided into independent regions organized by kinship groups and the oikoi or households, the origins of the later poleis. Most Greeks did not live in isolated farmsteads but in small settlements." So, smaller settlements and groups. Kinda what is predicted in some of the #LtG scenarios, but with the added *bonus* of pollution. (There was also #ClimateChange during the #LateBronzeAge, which was marked by droughts and crop failures).

Will we form smaller communities? Will we unite and use technology wisely before it's too late? Time will tell...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_Dark_Ages

#SocietalChange
#SW #LtG #LimitsToGrowth
#HistoryRepeating #BronzeAgeCollapse

So, it's not all bad news... I came across this from the "Recalibration" article referenced earlier... I plan on reading this soon!

#EarthForAll: A #Survival Guide for #Humanity

"Published in 2022, this book details the findings of our initiative and details how we can steer humanity away from #ecological and #social catastrophe.

"The book is the result of collaboration between the 21st century Transformational Economics Commission and systems analysts and modelling teams. The lead authors are Sandrine Dixson-Declève, Owen Gaffney, Jayati Ghosh, Jørgen Randers, Johan Rockström and Per Espen Stoknes.

"The economic system keeps crashing. It's time to install a new operating system.

"Earth for All is both an antidote to despair and a road map to a better future. Using powerful state-of-the-art computer modeling to explore policies likely to deliver the most good for the majority of people, a leading group of scientists and economists from around the world present five extraordinary turnarounds to achieve prosperity for all within planetary limits in a single generation.

Coverage includes:

- Results of new global modeling that indicates falling wellbeing and rising social tensions
- heighten risk of regional societal collapses

"Two alternative scenarios – #TooLittleTooLate vs #TheGiantLeap – and what they mean for our collective future

- Five system-shifting steps that can upend poverty and inequality, lift up marginalized people, and transform our food and energy systems by 2050

- A clear pathway to reboot our global economic system so it works for all people and the planet.

"Written in an open, accessible, and inspirational style using clear language and high impact visuals, Earth for All  is a profound vision for uncertain times and a map to a better future."

Giant leap

"This scenario assumes societies embark on a new path to a #sustainable world by 2050. What if we fundamentally reconfigure our economies, energy and food systems so that they work for both people and the planet? Can we avoid the worst of #ClimateChange impacts and increase our societies’ resilience to shocks? Will we succeed in ending extreme poverty, guaranteeing everyone a healthy diet and access to quality education and healthcare?"

Book:
https://earth4all.life/the-book/

Website:
https://earth4all.life/

#SolarPunk #SocietalChange #SW #World3 #LtG #LimitsToGrowth #StabilizedWorld #resilience #SharingEconomy #Sustainability #Technology #GiantLeap #SolarPunkSunday

From "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the #World3 model"

by Arjuna Nebel, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski, Tim Schell

First published: 13 November 2023

4.3 Future trends

"So far, the results have mainly been considered in comparison with the empirical data for the recalibration. However, the course of the variables is also interesting in terms of future trends. Here, the model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable. Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.

"This interconnected collapse, or, as it has been called by Heinberg and Miller (2023), #polycrisis, occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution. The increase in environmental pollution occurs later and with a lower peak (Figure 3).

"However, it is important to note that the connections in the model and the recalibration are only valid for the rising edge, as many of the variables and equations represented in the model are not physical but socio-economic. It is to be expected that the complex socio-economic relationships will be rearranged and reconnected in the event of a collapse. World3 holds the relationships between variables constant. Therefore it is not useful to draw further conclusions from the trajectory after the tipping points. Rather, it is important to recognize that there are large uncertainties about the trajectory from then on, building models for this could be a whole new field of research.

"The fact is that the recalibrated model again shows the possibility of a collapse of our current system. At the same time, the BAU scenario of the 1972 model is shown to be alarmingly consistent with the most recently collected empirical data.

"#Herrington (2021) also concluded in her data comparison that the world is far from a stabilized world scenario where the #overshoot and #collapse mode is brought to a halt. As a society, we have to admit that despite 50 years of knowledge about the dynamics of the collapse of our life support systems, we have failed to initiate a systematic change to prevent this collapse. It is becoming increasingly clear that, despite #technological advances, the change needed to put us on a different trajectory will also require a change in #BeliefSystems, #mindsets, and the way we organize our society (Irwin, 2015; Wamsler & Brink, 2018). [SW model]

"At the point of collapse, the resolution of the model also reaches the limit of further plausible statements. The regional differences in demographic and economic terms are too great to be reduced to simple, highly aggregated variables. To address this problem, a new system dynamics model has been developed on the occasion of #LtG's 50th anniversary which is called Earth for all (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). It introduces a regional resolution and a measure of social inequality and tension. There is also a greater focus on the causes and effects of the #ClimateCrisis. In #Earth4all, the authors no longer focus on scenarios with sharp declines in the main variables. Instead, the scenario Too little too late describes that the effects of the climate crisis will continue to increase and social tensions will rise, causing the well-being index to decline over time. In another scenario, #GiantLeap, it is shown that these negative developments could also be stopped. The authors then propose various policy changes to achieve this (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). "

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442

#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse #SolarPunk #SocietalChange #Degrowth #MindsetChange

From "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the #World3 model"

by Arjuna Nebel, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski, Tim Schell

First published: 13 November 2023

4.3 Future trends

"So far, the results have mainly been considered in comparison with the empirical data for the recalibration. However, the course of the variables is also interesting in terms of future trends. Here, the model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable. Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.

"This interconnected collapse, or, as it has been called by Heinberg and Miller (2023), #polycrisis, occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution. The increase in environmental pollution occurs later and with a lower peak (Figure 3).

"However, it is important to note that the connections in the model and the recalibration are only valid for the rising edge, as many of the variables and equations represented in the model are not physical but socio-economic. It is to be expected that the complex socio-economic relationships will be rearranged and reconnected in the event of a collapse. World3 holds the relationships between variables constant. Therefore it is not useful to draw further conclusions from the trajectory after the tipping points. Rather, it is important to recognize that there are large uncertainties about the trajectory from then on, building models for this could be a whole new field of research.

"The fact is that the recalibrated model again shows the possibility of a collapse of our current system. At the same time, the BAU scenario of the 1972 model is shown to be alarmingly consistent with the most recently collected empirical data.

"#Herrington (2021) also concluded in her data comparison that the world is far from a stabilized world scenario where the #overshoot and #collapse mode is brought to a halt. As a society, we have to admit that despite 50 years of knowledge about the dynamics of the collapse of our life support systems, we have failed to initiate a systematic change to prevent this collapse. It is becoming increasingly clear that, despite #technological advances, the change needed to put us on a different trajectory will also require a change in #BeliefSystems, #mindsets, and the way we organize our society (Irwin, 2015; Wamsler & Brink, 2018). [SW model]

"At the point of collapse, the resolution of the model also reaches the limit of further plausible statements. The regional differences in demographic and economic terms are too great to be reduced to simple, highly aggregated variables. To address this problem, a new system dynamics model has been developed on the occasion of #LtG's 50th anniversary which is called Earth for all (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). It introduces a regional resolution and a measure of social inequality and tension. There is also a greater focus on the causes and effects of the #ClimateCrisis. In #Earth4all, the authors no longer focus on scenarios with sharp declines in the main variables. Instead, the scenario Too little too late describes that the effects of the climate crisis will continue to increase and social tensions will rise, causing the well-being index to decline over time. In another scenario, #GiantLeap, it is shown that these negative developments could also be stopped. The authors then propose various policy changes to achieve this (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). "

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442

#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse #SolarPunk #SocietalChange #Degrowth #MindsetChange

From "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the #World3 model"

by Arjuna Nebel, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski, Tim Schell

First published: 13 November 2023

4.3 Future trends

"So far, the results have mainly been considered in comparison with the empirical data for the recalibration. However, the course of the variables is also interesting in terms of future trends. Here, the model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable. Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.

"This interconnected collapse, or, as it has been called by Heinberg and Miller (2023), #polycrisis, occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution. The increase in environmental pollution occurs later and with a lower peak (Figure 3).

"However, it is important to note that the connections in the model and the recalibration are only valid for the rising edge, as many of the variables and equations represented in the model are not physical but socio-economic. It is to be expected that the complex socio-economic relationships will be rearranged and reconnected in the event of a collapse. World3 holds the relationships between variables constant. Therefore it is not useful to draw further conclusions from the trajectory after the tipping points. Rather, it is important to recognize that there are large uncertainties about the trajectory from then on, building models for this could be a whole new field of research.

"The fact is that the recalibrated model again shows the possibility of a collapse of our current system. At the same time, the BAU scenario of the 1972 model is shown to be alarmingly consistent with the most recently collected empirical data.

"#Herrington (2021) also concluded in her data comparison that the world is far from a stabilized world scenario where the #overshoot and #collapse mode is brought to a halt. As a society, we have to admit that despite 50 years of knowledge about the dynamics of the collapse of our life support systems, we have failed to initiate a systematic change to prevent this collapse. It is becoming increasingly clear that, despite #technological advances, the change needed to put us on a different trajectory will also require a change in #BeliefSystems, #mindsets, and the way we organize our society (Irwin, 2015; Wamsler & Brink, 2018). [SW model]

"At the point of collapse, the resolution of the model also reaches the limit of further plausible statements. The regional differences in demographic and economic terms are too great to be reduced to simple, highly aggregated variables. To address this problem, a new system dynamics model has been developed on the occasion of #LtG's 50th anniversary which is called Earth for all (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). It introduces a regional resolution and a measure of social inequality and tension. There is also a greater focus on the causes and effects of the #ClimateCrisis. In #Earth4all, the authors no longer focus on scenarios with sharp declines in the main variables. Instead, the scenario Too little too late describes that the effects of the climate crisis will continue to increase and social tensions will rise, causing the well-being index to decline over time. In another scenario, #GiantLeap, it is shown that these negative developments could also be stopped. The authors then propose various policy changes to achieve this (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). "

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442

#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse #SolarPunk #SocietalChange #Degrowth #MindsetChange

From "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the #World3 model"

by Arjuna Nebel, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski, Tim Schell

First published: 13 November 2023

4.3 Future trends

"So far, the results have mainly been considered in comparison with the empirical data for the recalibration. However, the course of the variables is also interesting in terms of future trends. Here, the model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable. Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.

"This interconnected collapse, or, as it has been called by Heinberg and Miller (2023), #polycrisis, occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution. The increase in environmental pollution occurs later and with a lower peak (Figure 3).

"However, it is important to note that the connections in the model and the recalibration are only valid for the rising edge, as many of the variables and equations represented in the model are not physical but socio-economic. It is to be expected that the complex socio-economic relationships will be rearranged and reconnected in the event of a collapse. World3 holds the relationships between variables constant. Therefore it is not useful to draw further conclusions from the trajectory after the tipping points. Rather, it is important to recognize that there are large uncertainties about the trajectory from then on, building models for this could be a whole new field of research.

"The fact is that the recalibrated model again shows the possibility of a collapse of our current system. At the same time, the BAU scenario of the 1972 model is shown to be alarmingly consistent with the most recently collected empirical data.

"#Herrington (2021) also concluded in her data comparison that the world is far from a stabilized world scenario where the #overshoot and #collapse mode is brought to a halt. As a society, we have to admit that despite 50 years of knowledge about the dynamics of the collapse of our life support systems, we have failed to initiate a systematic change to prevent this collapse. It is becoming increasingly clear that, despite #technological advances, the change needed to put us on a different trajectory will also require a change in #BeliefSystems, #mindsets, and the way we organize our society (Irwin, 2015; Wamsler & Brink, 2018). [SW model]

"At the point of collapse, the resolution of the model also reaches the limit of further plausible statements. The regional differences in demographic and economic terms are too great to be reduced to simple, highly aggregated variables. To address this problem, a new system dynamics model has been developed on the occasion of #LtG's 50th anniversary which is called Earth for all (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). It introduces a regional resolution and a measure of social inequality and tension. There is also a greater focus on the causes and effects of the #ClimateCrisis. In #Earth4all, the authors no longer focus on scenarios with sharp declines in the main variables. Instead, the scenario Too little too late describes that the effects of the climate crisis will continue to increase and social tensions will rise, causing the well-being index to decline over time. In another scenario, #GiantLeap, it is shown that these negative developments could also be stopped. The authors then propose various policy changes to achieve this (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). "

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442

#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse #SolarPunk #SocietalChange #Degrowth #MindsetChange

From "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the #World3 model"

by Arjuna Nebel, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski, Tim Schell

First published: 13 November 2023

4.3 Future trends

"So far, the results have mainly been considered in comparison with the empirical data for the recalibration. However, the course of the variables is also interesting in terms of future trends. Here, the model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable. Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.

"This interconnected collapse, or, as it has been called by Heinberg and Miller (2023), #polycrisis, occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution. The increase in environmental pollution occurs later and with a lower peak (Figure 3).

"However, it is important to note that the connections in the model and the recalibration are only valid for the rising edge, as many of the variables and equations represented in the model are not physical but socio-economic. It is to be expected that the complex socio-economic relationships will be rearranged and reconnected in the event of a collapse. World3 holds the relationships between variables constant. Therefore it is not useful to draw further conclusions from the trajectory after the tipping points. Rather, it is important to recognize that there are large uncertainties about the trajectory from then on, building models for this could be a whole new field of research.

"The fact is that the recalibrated model again shows the possibility of a collapse of our current system. At the same time, the BAU scenario of the 1972 model is shown to be alarmingly consistent with the most recently collected empirical data.

"#Herrington (2021) also concluded in her data comparison that the world is far from a stabilized world scenario where the #overshoot and #collapse mode is brought to a halt. As a society, we have to admit that despite 50 years of knowledge about the dynamics of the collapse of our life support systems, we have failed to initiate a systematic change to prevent this collapse. It is becoming increasingly clear that, despite #technological advances, the change needed to put us on a different trajectory will also require a change in #BeliefSystems, #mindsets, and the way we organize our society (Irwin, 2015; Wamsler & Brink, 2018). [SW model]

"At the point of collapse, the resolution of the model also reaches the limit of further plausible statements. The regional differences in demographic and economic terms are too great to be reduced to simple, highly aggregated variables. To address this problem, a new system dynamics model has been developed on the occasion of #LtG's 50th anniversary which is called Earth for all (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). It introduces a regional resolution and a measure of social inequality and tension. There is also a greater focus on the causes and effects of the #ClimateCrisis. In #Earth4all, the authors no longer focus on scenarios with sharp declines in the main variables. Instead, the scenario Too little too late describes that the effects of the climate crisis will continue to increase and social tensions will rise, causing the well-being index to decline over time. In another scenario, #GiantLeap, it is shown that these negative developments could also be stopped. The authors then propose various policy changes to achieve this (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). "

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442

#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse #SolarPunk #SocietalChange #Degrowth #MindsetChange

A more pessimistic outlook, based on 2023 recalibrations... (From #Resiliency.org)

#LimitsToGrowth was right about collapse

By Andrew Curry, May 20, 2025

Excerpt: "Downhill from here

"The last chart assembles something from the data that wasn’t done in the original Limits to Growth work because the concept hadn’t been developed. But it is possible to assemble a #HumanDevelopmentIndex from the data, and reference it against the original model and the revised version. It doesn’t come out well.

(Source: Nebel et al, 2023, adapted Klement)

"On this last chart, Klement is most depressed, and I think with good reason:

" 'If [this chart] is true, it says that today is peak human civilisation, from now on we are going backward on a global level in terms of human development and quality of life, While some countries will continue to improve, other countries and the planet as a whole will start to go backward, ultimately dropping back to similar levels of human development and quality of life as in 1900 by the end of this century.'

"Tipping point

"The overall conclusion by the article’s authors is:

" '[T]he model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and #IndustrialAgriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer #sustainable. #Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.

"They also note that the cause of this turning point is resources, not ‘pollution’:

" 'This interconnected collapse… occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution.

"They also have an interesting caveat. This is that the way the #World3 model works is a through a set of connections that exist within an environment of growth. In an environment of decline, they are likely to reconfigure themselves in different ways. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a decline—just that the current lines in the model that describe it may not follow quite the same patterns.

"But one final note from me. Economists get over-excited when anyone mentions ‘#degrowth’, and fellow-travellers such as the Tony Blair Institute treat climate policy as if it is some kind of typical 1990s political discussion. The point is that we’re going to get degrowth whether we think it’s a good idea or not. The data here is, in effect, about the tipping point at the end of a 200-to-250-year exponential curve, at least in the richer parts of the world. The only question is whether we manage degrowth or just let it happen to us. This isn’t a neutral question. I know which one of these is worse."

Read more:
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2025-05-20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-collapse/

#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse

A more pessimistic outlook, based on 2023 recalibrations... (From #Resiliency.org)

#LimitsToGrowth was right about collapse

By Andrew Curry, May 20, 2025

Excerpt: "Downhill from here

"The last chart assembles something from the data that wasn’t done in the original Limits to Growth work because the concept hadn’t been developed. But it is possible to assemble a #HumanDevelopmentIndex from the data, and reference it against the original model and the revised version. It doesn’t come out well.

(Source: Nebel et al, 2023, adapted Klement)

"On this last chart, Klement is most depressed, and I think with good reason:

" 'If [this chart] is true, it says that today is peak human civilisation, from now on we are going backward on a global level in terms of human development and quality of life, While some countries will continue to improve, other countries and the planet as a whole will start to go backward, ultimately dropping back to similar levels of human development and quality of life as in 1900 by the end of this century.'

"Tipping point

"The overall conclusion by the article’s authors is:

" '[T]he model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and #IndustrialAgriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer #sustainable. #Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.

"They also note that the cause of this turning point is resources, not ‘pollution’:

" 'This interconnected collapse… occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution.

"They also have an interesting caveat. This is that the way the #World3 model works is a through a set of connections that exist within an environment of growth. In an environment of decline, they are likely to reconfigure themselves in different ways. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a decline—just that the current lines in the model that describe it may not follow quite the same patterns.

"But one final note from me. Economists get over-excited when anyone mentions ‘#degrowth’, and fellow-travellers such as the Tony Blair Institute treat climate policy as if it is some kind of typical 1990s political discussion. The point is that we’re going to get degrowth whether we think it’s a good idea or not. The data here is, in effect, about the tipping point at the end of a 200-to-250-year exponential curve, at least in the richer parts of the world. The only question is whether we manage degrowth or just let it happen to us. This isn’t a neutral question. I know which one of these is worse."

Read more:
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2025-05-20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-collapse/

#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse

A more pessimistic outlook, based on 2023 recalibrations... (From #Resiliency.org)

#LimitsToGrowth was right about collapse

By Andrew Curry, May 20, 2025

Excerpt: "Downhill from here

"The last chart assembles something from the data that wasn’t done in the original Limits to Growth work because the concept hadn’t been developed. But it is possible to assemble a #HumanDevelopmentIndex from the data, and reference it against the original model and the revised version. It doesn’t come out well.

(Source: Nebel et al, 2023, adapted Klement)

"On this last chart, Klement is most depressed, and I think with good reason:

" 'If [this chart] is true, it says that today is peak human civilisation, from now on we are going backward on a global level in terms of human development and quality of life, While some countries will continue to improve, other countries and the planet as a whole will start to go backward, ultimately dropping back to similar levels of human development and quality of life as in 1900 by the end of this century.'

"Tipping point

"The overall conclusion by the article’s authors is:

" '[T]he model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and #IndustrialAgriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer #sustainable. #Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.

"They also note that the cause of this turning point is resources, not ‘pollution’:

" 'This interconnected collapse… occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution.

"They also have an interesting caveat. This is that the way the #World3 model works is a through a set of connections that exist within an environment of growth. In an environment of decline, they are likely to reconfigure themselves in different ways. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a decline—just that the current lines in the model that describe it may not follow quite the same patterns.

"But one final note from me. Economists get over-excited when anyone mentions ‘#degrowth’, and fellow-travellers such as the Tony Blair Institute treat climate policy as if it is some kind of typical 1990s political discussion. The point is that we’re going to get degrowth whether we think it’s a good idea or not. The data here is, in effect, about the tipping point at the end of a 200-to-250-year exponential curve, at least in the richer parts of the world. The only question is whether we manage degrowth or just let it happen to us. This isn’t a neutral question. I know which one of these is worse."

Read more:
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2025-05-20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-collapse/

#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse

A more pessimistic outlook, based on 2023 recalibrations... (From #Resiliency.org)

#LimitsToGrowth was right about collapse

By Andrew Curry, May 20, 2025

Excerpt: "Downhill from here

"The last chart assembles something from the data that wasn’t done in the original Limits to Growth work because the concept hadn’t been developed. But it is possible to assemble a #HumanDevelopmentIndex from the data, and reference it against the original model and the revised version. It doesn’t come out well.

(Source: Nebel et al, 2023, adapted Klement)

"On this last chart, Klement is most depressed, and I think with good reason:

" 'If [this chart] is true, it says that today is peak human civilisation, from now on we are going backward on a global level in terms of human development and quality of life, While some countries will continue to improve, other countries and the planet as a whole will start to go backward, ultimately dropping back to similar levels of human development and quality of life as in 1900 by the end of this century.'

"Tipping point

"The overall conclusion by the article’s authors is:

" '[T]he model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and #IndustrialAgriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer #sustainable. #Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.

"They also note that the cause of this turning point is resources, not ‘pollution’:

" 'This interconnected collapse… occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution.

"They also have an interesting caveat. This is that the way the #World3 model works is a through a set of connections that exist within an environment of growth. In an environment of decline, they are likely to reconfigure themselves in different ways. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a decline—just that the current lines in the model that describe it may not follow quite the same patterns.

"But one final note from me. Economists get over-excited when anyone mentions ‘#degrowth’, and fellow-travellers such as the Tony Blair Institute treat climate policy as if it is some kind of typical 1990s political discussion. The point is that we’re going to get degrowth whether we think it’s a good idea or not. The data here is, in effect, about the tipping point at the end of a 200-to-250-year exponential curve, at least in the richer parts of the world. The only question is whether we manage degrowth or just let it happen to us. This isn’t a neutral question. I know which one of these is worse."

Read more:
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2025-05-20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-collapse/

#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse

A more pessimistic outlook, based on 2023 recalibrations... (From #Resiliency.org)

#LimitsToGrowth was right about collapse

By Andrew Curry, May 20, 2025

Excerpt: "Downhill from here

"The last chart assembles something from the data that wasn’t done in the original Limits to Growth work because the concept hadn’t been developed. But it is possible to assemble a #HumanDevelopmentIndex from the data, and reference it against the original model and the revised version. It doesn’t come out well.

(Source: Nebel et al, 2023, adapted Klement)

"On this last chart, Klement is most depressed, and I think with good reason:

" 'If [this chart] is true, it says that today is peak human civilisation, from now on we are going backward on a global level in terms of human development and quality of life, While some countries will continue to improve, other countries and the planet as a whole will start to go backward, ultimately dropping back to similar levels of human development and quality of life as in 1900 by the end of this century.'

"Tipping point

"The overall conclusion by the article’s authors is:

" '[T]he model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and #IndustrialAgriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer #sustainable. #Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.

"They also note that the cause of this turning point is resources, not ‘pollution’:

" 'This interconnected collapse… occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution.

"They also have an interesting caveat. This is that the way the #World3 model works is a through a set of connections that exist within an environment of growth. In an environment of decline, they are likely to reconfigure themselves in different ways. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a decline—just that the current lines in the model that describe it may not follow quite the same patterns.

"But one final note from me. Economists get over-excited when anyone mentions ‘#degrowth’, and fellow-travellers such as the Tony Blair Institute treat climate policy as if it is some kind of typical 1990s political discussion. The point is that we’re going to get degrowth whether we think it’s a good idea or not. The data here is, in effect, about the tipping point at the end of a 200-to-250-year exponential curve, at least in the richer parts of the world. The only question is whether we manage degrowth or just let it happen to us. This isn’t a neutral question. I know which one of these is worse."

Read more:
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2025-05-20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-collapse/

#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse

Journalist and technology writer Kaif Shaikh disagrees with #GayaHerrington, in this 2025 response. Kaif refers to #JoachimKlement, an economist, who believes that we are already on the way to a collapse, with society returning to the way it was in the 1900s (more about that in another post).

"So, where are we now, and what is the responsible takeaway?

"The 1972 framework still describes the structure of our situation. Herrington’s 2021 comparison shows that the world’s recent history has tracked World3’s growth-first pathways closely enough to warrant concern about declines later this century, potentially beginning to bite this decade. Her 2022 reflection adds two critical refinements. The divergence among futures happens after 2020, and the most livable path requires a conscious redesign of priorities toward efficiency, pollution control, and social investment rather than throughput.

"The Nebel et al. recalibration, as interpreted by Klement, indicates that even after re-estimating parameters with better data, the system still exhibits overshoot and collapse, with the trigger rooted in resource depletion. The implication is that 'more of the same, but faster' is not a strategy. It is precisely what turns today’s creativity into tomorrow’s fragility.

"If there is one message to carry forward, it is Herrington’s: the window for a deliberate trajectory change is narrow but real. The 'Stabilized World' is not a utopian fantasy layered onto a model. It emerges from the same feedback structure that produces overshoot under different goals. Change the goal, and the loops that currently amplify stress can be redirected to reinforce #resilience.

"That change looks less like a silver bullet and more like a portfolio of priorities that the model especially favors. Using fewer resources per unit of well-being, investing in pollution abatement so damages do not accumulate, and building health and education services that improve human welfare without relying on ever-rising material throughput.

"It is also important to be precise about uncertainty. The studies do not claim to know exactly when or how any particular nation will experience stress. #World3 is a global model of dynamics, not a country-by-country forecast. Nor do the authors claim that technology is useless.

"Quite the opposite. Technology can raise ceilings and delay peaks. But as co-author #DennisMeadows has often emphasized in discussions about #LimitsToGrowth over the years, higher peaks without structural change can mean sharper falls (#Overshoots).

"Herrington’s point is that 'technology plus the same goal' keeps us on the wrong curve. Technology deployed in the service of different goals, efficiency, abatement, and human development, separated from material throughput, can move us onto the SW trajectory.

"Finally, the recalibration’s note about system behavior under contraction deserves attention. If the world does tip into decline, feedbacks may rearrange themselves in ways the original model cannot fully capture. That is not a reason to dismiss the warning. It is a reason to move earlier, while our degrees of freedom are greater, and adaptation can be shaped rather than suffered. The studies summarized here do not argue that collapse is inevitable. They suggest that collapse is a real risk if we keep our current goals, and that avoiding it means choosing new ones."

Read more:
https://interestingengineering.com/culture/mit-1972-global-collapse-warning-revisited

Archived version:
https://archive.ph/mUIa2

#SolarPunkSunday #SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange

Journalist and technology writer Kaif Shaikh disagrees with #GayaHerrington, in this 2025 response. Kaif refers to #JoachimKlement, an economist, who believes that we are already on the way to a collapse, with society returning to the way it was in the 1900s (more about that in another post).

"So, where are we now, and what is the responsible takeaway?

"The 1972 framework still describes the structure of our situation. Herrington’s 2021 comparison shows that the world’s recent history has tracked World3’s growth-first pathways closely enough to warrant concern about declines later this century, potentially beginning to bite this decade. Her 2022 reflection adds two critical refinements. The divergence among futures happens after 2020, and the most livable path requires a conscious redesign of priorities toward efficiency, pollution control, and social investment rather than throughput.

"The Nebel et al. recalibration, as interpreted by Klement, indicates that even after re-estimating parameters with better data, the system still exhibits overshoot and collapse, with the trigger rooted in resource depletion. The implication is that 'more of the same, but faster' is not a strategy. It is precisely what turns today’s creativity into tomorrow’s fragility.

"If there is one message to carry forward, it is Herrington’s: the window for a deliberate trajectory change is narrow but real. The 'Stabilized World' is not a utopian fantasy layered onto a model. It emerges from the same feedback structure that produces overshoot under different goals. Change the goal, and the loops that currently amplify stress can be redirected to reinforce #resilience.

"That change looks less like a silver bullet and more like a portfolio of priorities that the model especially favors. Using fewer resources per unit of well-being, investing in pollution abatement so damages do not accumulate, and building health and education services that improve human welfare without relying on ever-rising material throughput.

"It is also important to be precise about uncertainty. The studies do not claim to know exactly when or how any particular nation will experience stress. #World3 is a global model of dynamics, not a country-by-country forecast. Nor do the authors claim that technology is useless.

"Quite the opposite. Technology can raise ceilings and delay peaks. But as co-author #DennisMeadows has often emphasized in discussions about #LimitsToGrowth over the years, higher peaks without structural change can mean sharper falls (#Overshoots).

"Herrington’s point is that 'technology plus the same goal' keeps us on the wrong curve. Technology deployed in the service of different goals, efficiency, abatement, and human development, separated from material throughput, can move us onto the SW trajectory.

"Finally, the recalibration’s note about system behavior under contraction deserves attention. If the world does tip into decline, feedbacks may rearrange themselves in ways the original model cannot fully capture. That is not a reason to dismiss the warning. It is a reason to move earlier, while our degrees of freedom are greater, and adaptation can be shaped rather than suffered. The studies summarized here do not argue that collapse is inevitable. They suggest that collapse is a real risk if we keep our current goals, and that avoiding it means choosing new ones."

Read more:
https://interestingengineering.com/culture/mit-1972-global-collapse-warning-revisited

Archived version:
https://archive.ph/mUIa2

#SolarPunkSunday #SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange

Journalist and technology writer Kaif Shaikh disagrees with #GayaHerrington, in this 2025 response. Kaif refers to #JoachimKlement, an economist, who believes that we are already on the way to a collapse, with society returning to the way it was in the 1900s (more about that in another post).

"So, where are we now, and what is the responsible takeaway?

"The 1972 framework still describes the structure of our situation. Herrington’s 2021 comparison shows that the world’s recent history has tracked World3’s growth-first pathways closely enough to warrant concern about declines later this century, potentially beginning to bite this decade. Her 2022 reflection adds two critical refinements. The divergence among futures happens after 2020, and the most livable path requires a conscious redesign of priorities toward efficiency, pollution control, and social investment rather than throughput.

"The Nebel et al. recalibration, as interpreted by Klement, indicates that even after re-estimating parameters with better data, the system still exhibits overshoot and collapse, with the trigger rooted in resource depletion. The implication is that 'more of the same, but faster' is not a strategy. It is precisely what turns today’s creativity into tomorrow’s fragility.

"If there is one message to carry forward, it is Herrington’s: the window for a deliberate trajectory change is narrow but real. The 'Stabilized World' is not a utopian fantasy layered onto a model. It emerges from the same feedback structure that produces overshoot under different goals. Change the goal, and the loops that currently amplify stress can be redirected to reinforce #resilience.

"That change looks less like a silver bullet and more like a portfolio of priorities that the model especially favors. Using fewer resources per unit of well-being, investing in pollution abatement so damages do not accumulate, and building health and education services that improve human welfare without relying on ever-rising material throughput.

"It is also important to be precise about uncertainty. The studies do not claim to know exactly when or how any particular nation will experience stress. #World3 is a global model of dynamics, not a country-by-country forecast. Nor do the authors claim that technology is useless.

"Quite the opposite. Technology can raise ceilings and delay peaks. But as co-author #DennisMeadows has often emphasized in discussions about #LimitsToGrowth over the years, higher peaks without structural change can mean sharper falls (#Overshoots).

"Herrington’s point is that 'technology plus the same goal' keeps us on the wrong curve. Technology deployed in the service of different goals, efficiency, abatement, and human development, separated from material throughput, can move us onto the SW trajectory.

"Finally, the recalibration’s note about system behavior under contraction deserves attention. If the world does tip into decline, feedbacks may rearrange themselves in ways the original model cannot fully capture. That is not a reason to dismiss the warning. It is a reason to move earlier, while our degrees of freedom are greater, and adaptation can be shaped rather than suffered. The studies summarized here do not argue that collapse is inevitable. They suggest that collapse is a real risk if we keep our current goals, and that avoiding it means choosing new ones."

Read more:
https://interestingengineering.com/culture/mit-1972-global-collapse-warning-revisited

Archived version:
https://archive.ph/mUIa2

#SolarPunkSunday #SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange

Journalist and technology writer Kaif Shaikh disagrees with #GayaHerrington, in this 2025 response. Kaif refers to #JoachimKlement, an economist, who believes that we are already on the way to a collapse, with society returning to the way it was in the 1900s (more about that in another post).

"So, where are we now, and what is the responsible takeaway?

"The 1972 framework still describes the structure of our situation. Herrington’s 2021 comparison shows that the world’s recent history has tracked World3’s growth-first pathways closely enough to warrant concern about declines later this century, potentially beginning to bite this decade. Her 2022 reflection adds two critical refinements. The divergence among futures happens after 2020, and the most livable path requires a conscious redesign of priorities toward efficiency, pollution control, and social investment rather than throughput.

"The Nebel et al. recalibration, as interpreted by Klement, indicates that even after re-estimating parameters with better data, the system still exhibits overshoot and collapse, with the trigger rooted in resource depletion. The implication is that 'more of the same, but faster' is not a strategy. It is precisely what turns today’s creativity into tomorrow’s fragility.

"If there is one message to carry forward, it is Herrington’s: the window for a deliberate trajectory change is narrow but real. The 'Stabilized World' is not a utopian fantasy layered onto a model. It emerges from the same feedback structure that produces overshoot under different goals. Change the goal, and the loops that currently amplify stress can be redirected to reinforce #resilience.

"That change looks less like a silver bullet and more like a portfolio of priorities that the model especially favors. Using fewer resources per unit of well-being, investing in pollution abatement so damages do not accumulate, and building health and education services that improve human welfare without relying on ever-rising material throughput.

"It is also important to be precise about uncertainty. The studies do not claim to know exactly when or how any particular nation will experience stress. #World3 is a global model of dynamics, not a country-by-country forecast. Nor do the authors claim that technology is useless.

"Quite the opposite. Technology can raise ceilings and delay peaks. But as co-author #DennisMeadows has often emphasized in discussions about #LimitsToGrowth over the years, higher peaks without structural change can mean sharper falls (#Overshoots).

"Herrington’s point is that 'technology plus the same goal' keeps us on the wrong curve. Technology deployed in the service of different goals, efficiency, abatement, and human development, separated from material throughput, can move us onto the SW trajectory.

"Finally, the recalibration’s note about system behavior under contraction deserves attention. If the world does tip into decline, feedbacks may rearrange themselves in ways the original model cannot fully capture. That is not a reason to dismiss the warning. It is a reason to move earlier, while our degrees of freedom are greater, and adaptation can be shaped rather than suffered. The studies summarized here do not argue that collapse is inevitable. They suggest that collapse is a real risk if we keep our current goals, and that avoiding it means choosing new ones."

Read more:
https://interestingengineering.com/culture/mit-1972-global-collapse-warning-revisited

Archived version:
https://archive.ph/mUIa2

#SolarPunkSunday #SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange

Journalist and technology writer Kaif Shaikh disagrees with #GayaHerrington, in this 2025 response. Kaif refers to #JoachimKlement, an economist, who believes that we are already on the way to a collapse, with society returning to the way it was in the 1900s (more about that in another post).

"So, where are we now, and what is the responsible takeaway?

"The 1972 framework still describes the structure of our situation. Herrington’s 2021 comparison shows that the world’s recent history has tracked World3’s growth-first pathways closely enough to warrant concern about declines later this century, potentially beginning to bite this decade. Her 2022 reflection adds two critical refinements. The divergence among futures happens after 2020, and the most livable path requires a conscious redesign of priorities toward efficiency, pollution control, and social investment rather than throughput.

"The Nebel et al. recalibration, as interpreted by Klement, indicates that even after re-estimating parameters with better data, the system still exhibits overshoot and collapse, with the trigger rooted in resource depletion. The implication is that 'more of the same, but faster' is not a strategy. It is precisely what turns today’s creativity into tomorrow’s fragility.

"If there is one message to carry forward, it is Herrington’s: the window for a deliberate trajectory change is narrow but real. The 'Stabilized World' is not a utopian fantasy layered onto a model. It emerges from the same feedback structure that produces overshoot under different goals. Change the goal, and the loops that currently amplify stress can be redirected to reinforce #resilience.

"That change looks less like a silver bullet and more like a portfolio of priorities that the model especially favors. Using fewer resources per unit of well-being, investing in pollution abatement so damages do not accumulate, and building health and education services that improve human welfare without relying on ever-rising material throughput.

"It is also important to be precise about uncertainty. The studies do not claim to know exactly when or how any particular nation will experience stress. #World3 is a global model of dynamics, not a country-by-country forecast. Nor do the authors claim that technology is useless.

"Quite the opposite. Technology can raise ceilings and delay peaks. But as co-author #DennisMeadows has often emphasized in discussions about #LimitsToGrowth over the years, higher peaks without structural change can mean sharper falls (#Overshoots).

"Herrington’s point is that 'technology plus the same goal' keeps us on the wrong curve. Technology deployed in the service of different goals, efficiency, abatement, and human development, separated from material throughput, can move us onto the SW trajectory.

"Finally, the recalibration’s note about system behavior under contraction deserves attention. If the world does tip into decline, feedbacks may rearrange themselves in ways the original model cannot fully capture. That is not a reason to dismiss the warning. It is a reason to move earlier, while our degrees of freedom are greater, and adaptation can be shaped rather than suffered. The studies summarized here do not argue that collapse is inevitable. They suggest that collapse is a real risk if we keep our current goals, and that avoiding it means choosing new ones."

Read more:
https://interestingengineering.com/culture/mit-1972-global-collapse-warning-revisited

Archived version:
https://archive.ph/mUIa2

#SolarPunkSunday #SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange

Back to Gaya Herrington's chart -- including an explanation of what the terms mean...

BAU = #BusinessAsUsual
BAU2 = Double The Resources that we estimate are available -- Business As Usual carries on for a while longer.
CT = Comprehensive Technology [assumes BAU2].
SW = Stabilized World. [CT + BAU2].

Herrington:

"The BAU scenario was based solely on historic averages without any assumptions. As mentioned, this 'business as usual' scenario ends in collapse.

[...]

"BAU2 assumes double the resources as in BAU. More abundant resources do not avoid a collapse; its cause merely changes from a resource scarcity crisis to a pollution one. With the resource constraint relaxed, incentives to innovate and/or change societal priorities are reduced, so business as usual goes on for longer. This creates so much pollution that agricultural output and human health plummet after some breakpoint. BAU2 essentially tells the story of #ecosystem breakdown from accumulated# pollution, including from greenhouse gasses (i.e., #ClimateChange)."

Both SW and CT involve the use of #Technology (#SolarPunk?), though SW is focused on sustainability.

Herrington: "We’re probably not on a path to a stable world [SW]. An update of this comparison in another few years might be able to identify one specific closest fit to empirical data. Without major changes in societal priorities, this is unlikely to be the scenario showing a sustainable path; the SW scenario, in which a decline in human welfare within this century is minimized, aligned with the data the least.

[...]

"CT represents the technologist’s belief in humanity’s ability to innovate out of environmental constraints. It assumes unprecedented technological innovation in a world that otherwise does not change its priorities much. The new technologies do in fact help avoid an outright collapse. However, CT still depicts some declines because the technology costs become so high that not enough resources are left for agricultural production and health and education services."

https://www.clubofrome.org/blog-post/herrington-world-model/?fbclid=IwAR34J-QE4mDCelAawQtHAP24B7IPDLFB_lmT_qLu-5_SKgy9fpWI15-FcY0

#SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis
#EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange

Back to Gaya Herrington's chart -- including an explanation of what the terms mean...

BAU = #BusinessAsUsual
BAU2 = Double The Resources that we estimate are available -- Business As Usual carries on for a while longer.
CT = Comprehensive Technology [assumes BAU2].
SW = Stabilized World. [CT + BAU2].

Herrington:

"The BAU scenario was based solely on historic averages without any assumptions. As mentioned, this 'business as usual' scenario ends in collapse.

[...]

"BAU2 assumes double the resources as in BAU. More abundant resources do not avoid a collapse; its cause merely changes from a resource scarcity crisis to a pollution one. With the resource constraint relaxed, incentives to innovate and/or change societal priorities are reduced, so business as usual goes on for longer. This creates so much pollution that agricultural output and human health plummet after some breakpoint. BAU2 essentially tells the story of #ecosystem breakdown from accumulated# pollution, including from greenhouse gasses (i.e., #ClimateChange)."

Both SW and CT involve the use of #Technology (#SolarPunk?), though SW is focused on sustainability.

Herrington: "We’re probably not on a path to a stable world [SW]. An update of this comparison in another few years might be able to identify one specific closest fit to empirical data. Without major changes in societal priorities, this is unlikely to be the scenario showing a sustainable path; the SW scenario, in which a decline in human welfare within this century is minimized, aligned with the data the least.

[...]

"CT represents the technologist’s belief in humanity’s ability to innovate out of environmental constraints. It assumes unprecedented technological innovation in a world that otherwise does not change its priorities much. The new technologies do in fact help avoid an outright collapse. However, CT still depicts some declines because the technology costs become so high that not enough resources are left for agricultural production and health and education services."

https://www.clubofrome.org/blog-post/herrington-world-model/?fbclid=IwAR34J-QE4mDCelAawQtHAP24B7IPDLFB_lmT_qLu-5_SKgy9fpWI15-FcY0

#SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis
#EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange

Back to Gaya Herrington's chart -- including an explanation of what the terms mean...

BAU = #BusinessAsUsual
BAU2 = Double The Resources that we estimate are available -- Business As Usual carries on for a while longer.
CT = Comprehensive Technology [assumes BAU2].
SW = Stabilized World. [CT + BAU2].

Herrington:

"The BAU scenario was based solely on historic averages without any assumptions. As mentioned, this 'business as usual' scenario ends in collapse.

[...]

"BAU2 assumes double the resources as in BAU. More abundant resources do not avoid a collapse; its cause merely changes from a resource scarcity crisis to a pollution one. With the resource constraint relaxed, incentives to innovate and/or change societal priorities are reduced, so business as usual goes on for longer. This creates so much pollution that agricultural output and human health plummet after some breakpoint. BAU2 essentially tells the story of #ecosystem breakdown from accumulated# pollution, including from greenhouse gasses (i.e., #ClimateChange)."

Both SW and CT involve the use of #Technology (#SolarPunk?), though SW is focused on sustainability.

Herrington: "We’re probably not on a path to a stable world [SW]. An update of this comparison in another few years might be able to identify one specific closest fit to empirical data. Without major changes in societal priorities, this is unlikely to be the scenario showing a sustainable path; the SW scenario, in which a decline in human welfare within this century is minimized, aligned with the data the least.

[...]

"CT represents the technologist’s belief in humanity’s ability to innovate out of environmental constraints. It assumes unprecedented technological innovation in a world that otherwise does not change its priorities much. The new technologies do in fact help avoid an outright collapse. However, CT still depicts some declines because the technology costs become so high that not enough resources are left for agricultural production and health and education services."

https://www.clubofrome.org/blog-post/herrington-world-model/?fbclid=IwAR34J-QE4mDCelAawQtHAP24B7IPDLFB_lmT_qLu-5_SKgy9fpWI15-FcY0

#SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis
#EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange

Back to Gaya Herrington's chart -- including an explanation of what the terms mean...

BAU = #BusinessAsUsual
BAU2 = Double The Resources that we estimate are available -- Business As Usual carries on for a while longer.
CT = Comprehensive Technology [assumes BAU2].
SW = Stabilized World. [CT + BAU2].

Herrington:

"The BAU scenario was based solely on historic averages without any assumptions. As mentioned, this 'business as usual' scenario ends in collapse.

[...]

"BAU2 assumes double the resources as in BAU. More abundant resources do not avoid a collapse; its cause merely changes from a resource scarcity crisis to a pollution one. With the resource constraint relaxed, incentives to innovate and/or change societal priorities are reduced, so business as usual goes on for longer. This creates so much pollution that agricultural output and human health plummet after some breakpoint. BAU2 essentially tells the story of #ecosystem breakdown from accumulated# pollution, including from greenhouse gasses (i.e., #ClimateChange)."

Both SW and CT involve the use of #Technology (#SolarPunk?), though SW is focused on sustainability.

Herrington: "We’re probably not on a path to a stable world [SW]. An update of this comparison in another few years might be able to identify one specific closest fit to empirical data. Without major changes in societal priorities, this is unlikely to be the scenario showing a sustainable path; the SW scenario, in which a decline in human welfare within this century is minimized, aligned with the data the least.

[...]

"CT represents the technologist’s belief in humanity’s ability to innovate out of environmental constraints. It assumes unprecedented technological innovation in a world that otherwise does not change its priorities much. The new technologies do in fact help avoid an outright collapse. However, CT still depicts some declines because the technology costs become so high that not enough resources are left for agricultural production and health and education services."

https://www.clubofrome.org/blog-post/herrington-world-model/?fbclid=IwAR34J-QE4mDCelAawQtHAP24B7IPDLFB_lmT_qLu-5_SKgy9fpWI15-FcY0

#SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis
#EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange

Back to Gaya Herrington's chart -- including an explanation of what the terms mean...

BAU = #BusinessAsUsual
BAU2 = Double The Resources that we estimate are available -- Business As Usual carries on for a while longer.
CT = Comprehensive Technology [assumes BAU2].
SW = Stabilized World. [CT + BAU2].

Herrington:

"The BAU scenario was based solely on historic averages without any assumptions. As mentioned, this 'business as usual' scenario ends in collapse.

[...]

"BAU2 assumes double the resources as in BAU. More abundant resources do not avoid a collapse; its cause merely changes from a resource scarcity crisis to a pollution one. With the resource constraint relaxed, incentives to innovate and/or change societal priorities are reduced, so business as usual goes on for longer. This creates so much pollution that agricultural output and human health plummet after some breakpoint. BAU2 essentially tells the story of #ecosystem breakdown from accumulated# pollution, including from greenhouse gasses (i.e., #ClimateChange)."

Both SW and CT involve the use of #Technology (#SolarPunk?), though SW is focused on sustainability.

Herrington: "We’re probably not on a path to a stable world [SW]. An update of this comparison in another few years might be able to identify one specific closest fit to empirical data. Without major changes in societal priorities, this is unlikely to be the scenario showing a sustainable path; the SW scenario, in which a decline in human welfare within this century is minimized, aligned with the data the least.

[...]

"CT represents the technologist’s belief in humanity’s ability to innovate out of environmental constraints. It assumes unprecedented technological innovation in a world that otherwise does not change its priorities much. The new technologies do in fact help avoid an outright collapse. However, CT still depicts some declines because the technology costs become so high that not enough resources are left for agricultural production and health and education services."

https://www.clubofrome.org/blog-post/herrington-world-model/?fbclid=IwAR34J-QE4mDCelAawQtHAP24B7IPDLFB_lmT_qLu-5_SKgy9fpWI15-FcY0

#SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis
#EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange

PRO-Coast Consortium Holds Crucial Fourth Meeting in Tallinn, Estonia, holding its 4th meeting (3-4/6/2025). Hosted by Tallinn University of Technology, bringing together the 20 partners from the 14 European countries. The meeting marks a significant milestone in the 36-month project. #biodiversity #societalchange #nbs #resilience #transformationalchange #naturalbasedsolutions #Talllin PRO-Coast #TallinnUniversityofTechnology

🌟 Exciting News! Our @Pro_Coast Consortium Unveils New Roll-Up Banner! 🌟This new visual not only highlights the innovative research and sustainable solutions we’re developing but also symbolizes the strength and unity of our collaborative network dedicated to protecting marine biodiversity and promoting ecosystem resilience across the Mediterranean. 🌊
#Biodiversity #SustainableCoasts #CollaborativeResearch #EnvironmentalInnovation #societalchange #nbs #ProjectMilestone #CommunityEngagement

The stunning beach of Aquatina di Frigole recently transformed into a hub of environmental awareness and community engagement through a truly remarkable event. Hosted as part of the PRO-Coast Project, this gathering brought together a vibrant mix of local residents, dedicated NGOs, and institutional representatives—all united in their commitment to preserving our precious coastal ecosystems.👍
#ProCoast #UniSalento #Sustainability #biodiversity #socialchange #NBS #environment #societalchange

👉 𝗗𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀 𝗼𝘂𝘁 – 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝘀𝗽𝗼𝘁 𝗻𝗼𝘄! Learn more and register today: https://impact.dataschool.nl/events/making-a-difference-societal-impact-through-collaborative-research/

#CriticalDataStudies #Academia #ActionResearch #SocietalChange #CollaborativeResearch

Not a bad article, and doesn't contain the usual misogynistic/misandrist diatribes these things usually collapse into. The solutions? Probably more complex.

#Men #FallingBehind #failing #societalchange #consequences #youthprotection

Young men are falling behind. What should we do about it? | Vox https://www.vox.com/the-gray-area/390781/masculinity-scott-galloway-young-men-struggling?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us

This image captures the faded facade of a closed restaurant, marked by graffiti. It reflects themes of urban decay and societal change in a post-pandemic world, highlighting the impacts on small businesses in urban environments.

#abandoned #urbanex #resteraunt #urban #sony #empty #urbandecay #postcapitalist #small business #photography #societalchange #photo #graffiti #depression #post-pandemic #edgy #photography #graffiti

"Don't lower your ground if you live close to the sea" - take-home message by #ClusterRoots member Bente Majchczack after his presentation "Medieval peat quarrying for salt production in the coastal marshes of #NorthFrisia" as part of the session "Between #OverExploitation and #sustainability: Extraction of #resources as a driver for #societalchange and #inequality"
#waddensea #KielScales23