home.social

#limitstogrowth — Public Fediverse posts

Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #limitstogrowth, aggregated by home.social.

  1. Thanks to Malthus, we have focused on food as the limit to population growth. For some reason, we have failed to consider how demands on other resources may have limits that we cannot afford to cross.

    The global sand crisis: it’s being used up faster than it can be replaced
    theguardian.com/environment/20

    #Ecosystems #ExtractiveIndustries #NaturalResource #LimitsToGrowth

  2. La France atteint son « jour du dépassement » écologique. (2026)
    informassue.tuxfamily.org/page
    Si le monde entier vivait comme la France, la capacité globale de régénération annuelle des écosystèmes serait épuisée dès le 24 avril, estime l’ONG Global Footprint Network...

    Avec un lien vers le rapport #Meadows des "limites à la croissance"...

    #France #Écologie #Croissance #Consommation #LimitsToGrowth

  3. La France atteint son « jour du dépassement » écologique. (2026)
    informassue.tuxfamily.org/page
    Si le monde entier vivait comme la France, la capacité globale de régénération annuelle des écosystèmes serait épuisée dès le 24 avril, estime l’ONG Global Footprint Network...

    Avec un lien vers le rapport #Meadows des "limites à la croissance"...

    #France #Écologie #Croissance #Consommation #LimitsToGrowth

  4. La France atteint son « jour du dépassement » écologique. (2026)
    informassue.tuxfamily.org/page
    Si le monde entier vivait comme la France, la capacité globale de régénération annuelle des écosystèmes serait épuisée dès le 24 avril, estime l’ONG Global Footprint Network...

    Avec un lien vers le rapport #Meadows des "limites à la croissance"...

    #France #Écologie #Croissance #Consommation #LimitsToGrowth

  5. La France atteint son « jour du dépassement » écologique. (2026)
    informassue.tuxfamily.org/page
    Si le monde entier vivait comme la France, la capacité globale de régénération annuelle des écosystèmes serait épuisée dès le 24 avril, estime l’ONG Global Footprint Network...

    Avec un lien vers le rapport #Meadows des "limites à la croissance"...

    #France #Écologie #Croissance #Consommation #LimitsToGrowth

  6. La France atteint son « jour du dépassement » écologique. (2026)
    informassue.tuxfamily.org/page
    Si le monde entier vivait comme la France, la capacité globale de régénération annuelle des écosystèmes serait épuisée dès le 24 avril, estime l’ONG Global Footprint Network...

    Avec un lien vers le rapport #Meadows des "limites à la croissance"...

    #France #Écologie #Croissance #Consommation #LimitsToGrowth

  7. @davidho Wow, but surely the recycling worth talking about is of metals? #limitstogrowth

  8. @DoomsdaysCW yes we all hope for c), but it is unrealistic, isn't it? Look at how much buzz and hype a single stranded #humpback whale in the #BalticSea causes now. People care about it. Media outlets are reporting about it all the time. A whale is concrete and real, it can be touched, you can comprehend it. #ClimateCrisis, #ClimateChange and #LimitsToGrowth are abstract and seem to be far away.

    If people would care the same about issues that really matter as they care about the humpback whale, then we would have a real chance to avoid collapse. But this is not how the world works. In the end people care more about helping a whale survive than about helping their own species survive. Because this would mean building a sustainable post-capitalist economy. Or at least thinking about it.

  9. There is a lot of hype about the stranded #humpback whale in the #BalticSea. Of course we all want him to survive. Yet if people would care the same about issues that really matter, then we would have a real chance to avoid collapse. People understand #ClimateChange, but it seems to be abstract & distant. They may understand the problem of #LimitsToGrowth but it seems to be far away as well. In the end people care more about helping a whale survive than about helping their own species survive.

  10. I absolutely hate, hate, HATE how software environments are often called "ecosystems".
    An ecosystem is a living organic structure on a living planet (more specifically, Earth, since we haven't found any other living planets yet), made from all kinds of organisms -- bacteria, archaea, fungi, all kinds of arthropods from tiny mites to big beetles and bumblebees, and far too few vertebrates nowadays because of the fucking Industrial Age. We've been ruining ecosystems at high speed ever since Columbus kickstarted colonialism, but then the steam engine came, constantly accelerating the growth our cancer of an economy, and after WW2 we started the afterburner. We've been destroying ecosystems at supersonic speed for eight decades, we can see them fall apart before our eyes. People have been seing the living world around them getting killed since the dirty old mills of the Black Country, and since the 1960s, a growing green movement all over the planet has been trying to stop the madness. And we aren't really very good at it, are we? This entire mess of a civilisation is running out of control, collapse has probably already begun, we're in ecological overshoot like Wile E. Coyote hanging in midair. Capitalism won't last much longer because it becomes dysfunctional when there isn't any real growth left, and we have not only reached the global growth limits, we have exceeded them, which means that the economy will eventually shrink by more than half, which isn't a recession or even a Second Great Depression, it is an utter collapse of the economy. If those of us who survive that can somehow built a sustainable type of economy from the leftovers, this industrial civilisation might not collapse completely just yet, entering a time of slow decline instead, and an entire new civilisation might grow in some other parts of the world, maybe in Africa, maybe in Asia, and spread across the world as the European type of civilisation slowly vanishes. Who knows? Right now, we need to learn how to survive in times of collapse. And the best way to do so is to learn how to do things properly which will still be relevant when there are no more computers or big factories or giant office buildings.

    I am part of an ecosystem, as I am one of many, many animals who live in this landscape. And like other animals, I need to eat some of the organisms who live here in order to survive. I'm a huge threat to every individual potato or chicken, yet my presence leads to the presence of more potatoes and chickens, which is one of all my interactions with the ecosystem. I can't do anything without my actions having consequences for the ecosystem of which I am but a tiny part. Some people today are as afraid of the ongoing global climate catastrophe as they should be, but only very few realise that the biodiversity crisis aka the Sixth Extinction is far worse and far more frightening.

    And some IT guys who know fucking zilch about ecology have the bloody audacity to call some software environment an "ecosystem". I find it very annoying. Fucking techbros should think more and talk less.

    #biodiversitycrisis #extinction #sixthextinction #globalwarming #climatecrisis #biospheredecline #capitalism #economicgrowth #limitstogrowth #overshoot #collapse #πολυκρίσης #polykrisis #polycrisis #ecosystem

  11. It is obvious that exponential growth can not go on unlimited in a limited system. There are #LimitsToGrowth in every finite system. So what will the future bring while the superrich hide in their bunkers (even they are unsure how, as Douglas Rushkoff describes in his book)? A..

    a) societal collapse and we go extinct
    b) societal collapse and we go back to pre-industrial middle ages
    c) societal collapse and we create a sustainable post-capitalist economy

    I don't know. What do you think? Can we avoid a collapse of a society which is based on exponential growth and exploitation of fossil fuels or is a collapse inevitable?
    politybooks.com/bookdetail?boo

  12. Human #wellbeing on a #FinitePlanet towards 2100: new study shows humanity at a crossroads

    A new paper by members of Earth4All’s scientific advisory team published today in Global Sustainability models two starkly different futures for humanity this century: one defined by escalating crises compounded by rising social tension, the other by a bold transformation towards wellbeing for all. The findings emphasise the importance of considering wellbeing and social cohesion when studying how planetary risks, inequality and social tensions interact.

    4 July 2025

    Excerpt: "Boost social cohesion and wellbeing for successful climate action

    "A key innovation of the study is the introduction of two novel indices: social tension and wellbeing. This enabled the researchers to model not just the complex interactions between economic and #environmental factors in the two scenarios, but also include social feedback loops capturing trust, public investment, and political capacity. The modelling results suggests that rising #inequality and environmental degradation fuel social tensions, which in turn reduce governments’ capacity to implement the long-term policies needed to address existential risks linked to climate change and other planetary boundaries.

    " 'By integrating a social tension index and a wellbeing index, we have been able to highlight the importance of social dynamics in climate scenarios,' explained co-author #NathalieSpittler of #BOKUUniversity. 'Achieving climate goals is not just a question of technological and economic developments. If wellbeing declines and social tensions rise, this creates a negative feedback loop where the very conditions needed for transformational change become harder to achieve.'

    "Conversely, the study suggests that actions to reduce inequality and increase #SocialCohesion and wellbeing are key if governments want to implement policy shifts on #climate and other global issues."

    Read more [includes link to the paper]:
    earth4all.life/news/human-well

    #SolarPunkSunday #Earth4All #ClimateChange #BuildingCommunity #BuildResilience #GiantLeap #GiantLeapScenario #LtG #LimitsToGrowth #StabilizedWorld

  13. Human #wellbeing on a #FinitePlanet towards 2100: new study shows humanity at a crossroads

    A new paper by members of Earth4All’s scientific advisory team published today in Global Sustainability models two starkly different futures for humanity this century: one defined by escalating crises compounded by rising social tension, the other by a bold transformation towards wellbeing for all. The findings emphasise the importance of considering wellbeing and social cohesion when studying how planetary risks, inequality and social tensions interact.

    4 July 2025

    Excerpt: "Boost social cohesion and wellbeing for successful climate action

    "A key innovation of the study is the introduction of two novel indices: social tension and wellbeing. This enabled the researchers to model not just the complex interactions between economic and #environmental factors in the two scenarios, but also include social feedback loops capturing trust, public investment, and political capacity. The modelling results suggests that rising #inequality and environmental degradation fuel social tensions, which in turn reduce governments’ capacity to implement the long-term policies needed to address existential risks linked to climate change and other planetary boundaries.

    " 'By integrating a social tension index and a wellbeing index, we have been able to highlight the importance of social dynamics in climate scenarios,' explained co-author #NathalieSpittler of #BOKUUniversity. 'Achieving climate goals is not just a question of technological and economic developments. If wellbeing declines and social tensions rise, this creates a negative feedback loop where the very conditions needed for transformational change become harder to achieve.'

    "Conversely, the study suggests that actions to reduce inequality and increase #SocialCohesion and wellbeing are key if governments want to implement policy shifts on #climate and other global issues."

    Read more [includes link to the paper]:
    earth4all.life/news/human-well

    #SolarPunkSunday #Earth4All #ClimateChange #BuildingCommunity #BuildResilience #GiantLeap #GiantLeapScenario #LtG #LimitsToGrowth #StabilizedWorld

  14. Human #wellbeing on a #FinitePlanet towards 2100: new study shows humanity at a crossroads

    A new paper by members of Earth4All’s scientific advisory team published today in Global Sustainability models two starkly different futures for humanity this century: one defined by escalating crises compounded by rising social tension, the other by a bold transformation towards wellbeing for all. The findings emphasise the importance of considering wellbeing and social cohesion when studying how planetary risks, inequality and social tensions interact.

    4 July 2025

    Excerpt: "Boost social cohesion and wellbeing for successful climate action

    "A key innovation of the study is the introduction of two novel indices: social tension and wellbeing. This enabled the researchers to model not just the complex interactions between economic and #environmental factors in the two scenarios, but also include social feedback loops capturing trust, public investment, and political capacity. The modelling results suggests that rising #inequality and environmental degradation fuel social tensions, which in turn reduce governments’ capacity to implement the long-term policies needed to address existential risks linked to climate change and other planetary boundaries.

    " 'By integrating a social tension index and a wellbeing index, we have been able to highlight the importance of social dynamics in climate scenarios,' explained co-author #NathalieSpittler of #BOKUUniversity. 'Achieving climate goals is not just a question of technological and economic developments. If wellbeing declines and social tensions rise, this creates a negative feedback loop where the very conditions needed for transformational change become harder to achieve.'

    "Conversely, the study suggests that actions to reduce inequality and increase #SocialCohesion and wellbeing are key if governments want to implement policy shifts on #climate and other global issues."

    Read more [includes link to the paper]:
    earth4all.life/news/human-well

    #SolarPunkSunday #Earth4All #ClimateChange #BuildingCommunity #BuildResilience #GiantLeap #GiantLeapScenario #LtG #LimitsToGrowth #StabilizedWorld

  15. Human #wellbeing on a #FinitePlanet towards 2100: new study shows humanity at a crossroads

    A new paper by members of Earth4All’s scientific advisory team published today in Global Sustainability models two starkly different futures for humanity this century: one defined by escalating crises compounded by rising social tension, the other by a bold transformation towards wellbeing for all. The findings emphasise the importance of considering wellbeing and social cohesion when studying how planetary risks, inequality and social tensions interact.

    4 July 2025

    Excerpt: "Boost social cohesion and wellbeing for successful climate action

    "A key innovation of the study is the introduction of two novel indices: social tension and wellbeing. This enabled the researchers to model not just the complex interactions between economic and #environmental factors in the two scenarios, but also include social feedback loops capturing trust, public investment, and political capacity. The modelling results suggests that rising #inequality and environmental degradation fuel social tensions, which in turn reduce governments’ capacity to implement the long-term policies needed to address existential risks linked to climate change and other planetary boundaries.

    " 'By integrating a social tension index and a wellbeing index, we have been able to highlight the importance of social dynamics in climate scenarios,' explained co-author #NathalieSpittler of #BOKUUniversity. 'Achieving climate goals is not just a question of technological and economic developments. If wellbeing declines and social tensions rise, this creates a negative feedback loop where the very conditions needed for transformational change become harder to achieve.'

    "Conversely, the study suggests that actions to reduce inequality and increase #SocialCohesion and wellbeing are key if governments want to implement policy shifts on #climate and other global issues."

    Read more [includes link to the paper]:
    earth4all.life/news/human-well

    #SolarPunkSunday #Earth4All #ClimateChange #BuildingCommunity #BuildResilience #GiantLeap #GiantLeapScenario #LtG #LimitsToGrowth #StabilizedWorld

  16. Human #wellbeing on a #FinitePlanet towards 2100: new study shows humanity at a crossroads

    A new paper by members of Earth4All’s scientific advisory team published today in Global Sustainability models two starkly different futures for humanity this century: one defined by escalating crises compounded by rising social tension, the other by a bold transformation towards wellbeing for all. The findings emphasise the importance of considering wellbeing and social cohesion when studying how planetary risks, inequality and social tensions interact.

    4 July 2025

    Excerpt: "Boost social cohesion and wellbeing for successful climate action

    "A key innovation of the study is the introduction of two novel indices: social tension and wellbeing. This enabled the researchers to model not just the complex interactions between economic and #environmental factors in the two scenarios, but also include social feedback loops capturing trust, public investment, and political capacity. The modelling results suggests that rising #inequality and environmental degradation fuel social tensions, which in turn reduce governments’ capacity to implement the long-term policies needed to address existential risks linked to climate change and other planetary boundaries.

    " 'By integrating a social tension index and a wellbeing index, we have been able to highlight the importance of social dynamics in climate scenarios,' explained co-author #NathalieSpittler of #BOKUUniversity. 'Achieving climate goals is not just a question of technological and economic developments. If wellbeing declines and social tensions rise, this creates a negative feedback loop where the very conditions needed for transformational change become harder to achieve.'

    "Conversely, the study suggests that actions to reduce inequality and increase #SocialCohesion and wellbeing are key if governments want to implement policy shifts on #climate and other global issues."

    Read more [includes link to the paper]:
    earth4all.life/news/human-well

    #SolarPunkSunday #Earth4All #ClimateChange #BuildingCommunity #BuildResilience #GiantLeap #GiantLeapScenario #LtG #LimitsToGrowth #StabilizedWorld

  17. 🌿 I like this blog post by @maxwilbert. It highlights the problem with speaking of environmental issues in terms of 'limiting ourselves'. Because that carries the implication that until these limits are reached, we can do whatever we want.

    Instead of external limits, he argues (in agreement with author Giorgos Kallis), we should look for internal limits: ways of limiting our own behaviour to be more in line with the world around us – not just because of the consequences, but also because of the freedom and justice such limit-setting entails.

    I like this.

    However, I disagree with the wording here. I think we can go one step further and not speak in terms of 'limits' at all. I am not limited by the fact that I cannot take a private jet everywhere I go; I am positively happy about it. I am not limited by my non-consumption of animal products, it makes me feel great. What Wilbert and Kallis call 'self-limitation', I call flourishing.

    As long as we keep thinking in terms of limitation/expansion, we stay stuck in the capitalist-imperialist mindset. This mindset sees expansion as the only way forward, with everything else being 'stagnation' or 'regression' and therefore Bad. Whereas what we should be looking for is ways to grow our quality of life without growing our destructive footprint.

    In my humble opinion, of course.

    🔗 maxwilbert.substack.com/p/the-

    #degrowth #MaxWilbert #LimitsToGrowth #environment #EnvironmentalPhilosophy #GiorgosKallis #sufficiency #abundance

  18. @dpiponi a foretaste of things to come? Our whole economy still depends on oil which is running out soon, as predicted in the #LimitsToGrowth report 50 years ago. Life without water and electricity is indeed challenging
    politybooks.com/bookdetail?boo

  19. The Quest for Prosperity | Tim Jackson’s Foreword for Richard McNeill Douglas’ new book The Meaning of Growth: Anti-Environmentalist Rhetoric and the Defence of Modernity. → cusp.ac.uk/themes/aetw/tj-ques

    "What can prosperity possibly mean when you’re living on a lonely rock hurtling blindly through space at half a million miles an hour? Some questions are as old as the hills—and yet remain fresher than the darling buds of May."

    cc #Postgrowth #LimitsToGrowth #ProsperityWithoutGrowth

  20. I finished reading Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet by Thomas Murphy. It's powerful. He argues decisively that growth (including economic growth) will stop soon compared to the length of time since the beginning of agriculture. All it takes is one critical resource to limit growth. Even in the wildly optimistic scenarios where energy is limitless, eventually temperature from our own energy use will limit growth. Space exploration will only delay the end of growth, and will cause its own problems. I found the arguments to be convincing.

    escholarship.org/uc/item/9js52

    #sustainability
    #limitsToGrowth
    #finitePlanet

    1/N

  21. Climate denial and the defence of modernity—What we are lacking is an inspiring vision of our lives, collective futures, and spiritual reality in a world in which we cannot keep growing forever. As much as we need policy wonks, scientists, and campaigners, CUSP researcher Dr Richard Douglas argues in this blog, now is the time for philosophers, religious thinkers and writers to apply themselves to social change.→ cusp.ac.uk/themes/m/blog-rd-gr

    cc #LimitsToGrowth #PostGrowth #TheCareEconomy #Modernity

  22. I have been on a kick reading/listening about how human civilization will stop growing. It is crazy the disconnect between these physical limits and "common sense". People talk about how in the long term stocks go up in value. So much of our society is predicated on perpetual growth. But nothing grows for ever even if it has grown for the past few centuries.

    Tom Murphy has a very solid argument about how economics is tied to the physical world, and physical limits will lead to the economy to stop growing. I recently came across his Comment in the journal Nature Physics
    tmurphy.physics.ucsd.edu/paper

    #limitsToGrowth

  23. Recalibrage des limites à la croissance: mise à jour du modèle #World3 (2023)
    informassue.tuxfamily.org/page
    Après 50 ans, le débat sur l'étude "Les limites de la #croissance" est toujours d'actualité. L'article de recherche recalibre le modèle World3-03 de 2005. Les paramètres d'entrée sont modifiés pour mieux correspondre aux #données empiriques sur le #développement mondial.

    #Recalibration23 #LtG #LimitsToGrowth #Population #Démographie #Meadows #MIT #BAU #BAU2 #Capitalisme #Effondrement #Collapse

  24. New book 📚 // In The Meaning Of Growth, CUSP research fellow Richard McNeill Douglas investigates the roots of political resistance to environmental science and policy in Western societies, and suggests a new approach to overcoming it. With a foreword by @ProfTimJackson
    cusp.ac.uk/themes/m/rd-book-me
    __
    cc #PostGrowth #BeyondGrowth #Degrowth #LimitsToGrowth

  25. So, I've been reading "Power - Limits and Prospects for Human Survival" by Richard Heinberg (a recommendation from someone here). Wow! I found some great quotes to share in the near future. TY to whoever recommended it!

    #LimitsToGrowth #RichardHeinberg #AmReading #Bookstodon #SolarPunkSunday #History #Futurism

  26. And lastly, leaving you all with this essay by #DuskinWayne. The key takeaway I got from this is that wanting to achieve success isn't limited to capitalistic / selfish pursuits -- it can be utilized to create #ABetterWorld for everyone and the planet. (Note -- I don't agree with everything Duskin Wayne says, but I found it interesting in terms of thinking about 'what is human nature'?)

    #StabilizedWorld: Social Welfare vs. Independent Pursuit of Success

    Published 2025

    "Imagine a future where technology has solved many of the world’s biggest problems, creating a society that is more stable and equitable. MIT’s Fourth Scenario, the 'Stabilized World,' envisions a society where basic needs—like healthcare, education, and income—are guaranteed for everyone. With the rise of artificial intelligence and automation, labor has been redefined, allowing people to focus on what truly matters to them. In this world, the question becomes: Is happiness found in the security of a welfare state, or in the personal achievements that come from pursuing one’s own version of success? According to the scenario, this societal stability follows a period of collapse that is predicted to occur between 2030 and 2060, as we face #EnvironmentalCrises and economic #disparity.

    "In this future, social welfare isn’t just a safety net but a foundational element of society. No longer do individuals need to fear falling into poverty or being excluded from opportunities. With a guaranteed basic income and universal access to essential services, people are free to explore their passions, whether that’s launching a startup, creating art, or dedicating time to personal development. This system allows for creativity and innovation to flourish, but it also raises a fundamental question: What drives happiness—personal success or the stability that comes from being part of a secure, #collective society?

    "Although basic needs are met for everyone, the desire to achieve more, whether in wealth, status, or recognition, doesn’t disappear. In fact, many would argue that the pursuit of success is what gives life meaning, even in a world where the basics are assured. While the 'Stabilized World' provides a cushion, individuals are still encouraged to push boundaries, create, and innovate. But here, success is not solely defined by financial #wealth or #fame. It is the result of personal effort, #creativity, and contribution to society’s #GreaterGood. The tension between achieving for oneself and achieving for the collective good creates a nuanced approach to happiness — one that blends personal fulfillment with a sense of responsibility to the whole.

    "This balancing act is particularly evident in the realms of education and entrepreneurship. In a world where the pressure to survive has been lifted, more people are free to pursue their dreams and develop new ideas. But does this individual drive to succeed come at the cost of social cohesion? In this future, innovation and entrepreneurship are celebrated, but they must be seen in the context of societal well-being. As people rise to success, they are encouraged to think about how their achievements can improve the lives of others. The concept of wealth shifts, moving away from mere accumulation to the idea of access — being able to live a life that goes beyond survival to one of exploration, joy, and meaningful contribution.

    "Ultimately, the 'Stabilized World' scenario presents a society where personal ambition and collective stability coexist. As people work to achieve their own goals, they do so in a framework that ensures the well-being of all. This makes us ask: Is true happiness found in the wealth we accumulate or in the security we offer one another? The pursuit of success is no longer just about individual triumph; it’s about how we can innovate, create, and live in ways that benefit everyone. In this future, we learn that the intersection of personal ambition and social welfare isn’t a battle to be won but a balance to be struck, with both paths leading to a richer, more fulfilling life for all."

    Link to article (includes references):
    duskinwayne.com/arts-and-cultu

    #SolarPunkSunday #SW #LtG #LimitsToGrowth #SolarPunk #GuaranteedIncomeForAll #UsingTechnologyForGood

  27. And lastly, leaving you all with this essay by #DuskinWayne. The key takeaway I got from this is that wanting to achieve success isn't limited to capitalistic / selfish pursuits -- it can be utilized to create #ABetterWorld for everyone and the planet. (Note -- I don't agree with everything Duskin Wayne says, but I found it interesting in terms of thinking about 'what is human nature'?)

    #StabilizedWorld: Social Welfare vs. Independent Pursuit of Success

    Published 2025

    "Imagine a future where technology has solved many of the world’s biggest problems, creating a society that is more stable and equitable. MIT’s Fourth Scenario, the 'Stabilized World,' envisions a society where basic needs—like healthcare, education, and income—are guaranteed for everyone. With the rise of artificial intelligence and automation, labor has been redefined, allowing people to focus on what truly matters to them. In this world, the question becomes: Is happiness found in the security of a welfare state, or in the personal achievements that come from pursuing one’s own version of success? According to the scenario, this societal stability follows a period of collapse that is predicted to occur between 2030 and 2060, as we face #EnvironmentalCrises and economic #disparity.

    "In this future, social welfare isn’t just a safety net but a foundational element of society. No longer do individuals need to fear falling into poverty or being excluded from opportunities. With a guaranteed basic income and universal access to essential services, people are free to explore their passions, whether that’s launching a startup, creating art, or dedicating time to personal development. This system allows for creativity and innovation to flourish, but it also raises a fundamental question: What drives happiness—personal success or the stability that comes from being part of a secure, #collective society?

    "Although basic needs are met for everyone, the desire to achieve more, whether in wealth, status, or recognition, doesn’t disappear. In fact, many would argue that the pursuit of success is what gives life meaning, even in a world where the basics are assured. While the 'Stabilized World' provides a cushion, individuals are still encouraged to push boundaries, create, and innovate. But here, success is not solely defined by financial #wealth or #fame. It is the result of personal effort, #creativity, and contribution to society’s #GreaterGood. The tension between achieving for oneself and achieving for the collective good creates a nuanced approach to happiness — one that blends personal fulfillment with a sense of responsibility to the whole.

    "This balancing act is particularly evident in the realms of education and entrepreneurship. In a world where the pressure to survive has been lifted, more people are free to pursue their dreams and develop new ideas. But does this individual drive to succeed come at the cost of social cohesion? In this future, innovation and entrepreneurship are celebrated, but they must be seen in the context of societal well-being. As people rise to success, they are encouraged to think about how their achievements can improve the lives of others. The concept of wealth shifts, moving away from mere accumulation to the idea of access — being able to live a life that goes beyond survival to one of exploration, joy, and meaningful contribution.

    "Ultimately, the 'Stabilized World' scenario presents a society where personal ambition and collective stability coexist. As people work to achieve their own goals, they do so in a framework that ensures the well-being of all. This makes us ask: Is true happiness found in the wealth we accumulate or in the security we offer one another? The pursuit of success is no longer just about individual triumph; it’s about how we can innovate, create, and live in ways that benefit everyone. In this future, we learn that the intersection of personal ambition and social welfare isn’t a battle to be won but a balance to be struck, with both paths leading to a richer, more fulfilling life for all."

    Link to article (includes references):
    duskinwayne.com/arts-and-cultu

    #SolarPunkSunday #SW #LtG #LimitsToGrowth #SolarPunk #GuaranteedIncomeForAll #UsingTechnologyForGood

  28. And lastly, leaving you all with this essay by #DuskinWayne. The key takeaway I got from this is that wanting to achieve success isn't limited to capitalistic / selfish pursuits -- it can be utilized to create #ABetterWorld for everyone and the planet. (Note -- I don't agree with everything Duskin Wayne says, but I found it interesting in terms of thinking about 'what is human nature'?)

    #StabilizedWorld: Social Welfare vs. Independent Pursuit of Success

    Published 2025

    "Imagine a future where technology has solved many of the world’s biggest problems, creating a society that is more stable and equitable. MIT’s Fourth Scenario, the 'Stabilized World,' envisions a society where basic needs—like healthcare, education, and income—are guaranteed for everyone. With the rise of artificial intelligence and automation, labor has been redefined, allowing people to focus on what truly matters to them. In this world, the question becomes: Is happiness found in the security of a welfare state, or in the personal achievements that come from pursuing one’s own version of success? According to the scenario, this societal stability follows a period of collapse that is predicted to occur between 2030 and 2060, as we face #EnvironmentalCrises and economic #disparity.

    "In this future, social welfare isn’t just a safety net but a foundational element of society. No longer do individuals need to fear falling into poverty or being excluded from opportunities. With a guaranteed basic income and universal access to essential services, people are free to explore their passions, whether that’s launching a startup, creating art, or dedicating time to personal development. This system allows for creativity and innovation to flourish, but it also raises a fundamental question: What drives happiness—personal success or the stability that comes from being part of a secure, #collective society?

    "Although basic needs are met for everyone, the desire to achieve more, whether in wealth, status, or recognition, doesn’t disappear. In fact, many would argue that the pursuit of success is what gives life meaning, even in a world where the basics are assured. While the 'Stabilized World' provides a cushion, individuals are still encouraged to push boundaries, create, and innovate. But here, success is not solely defined by financial #wealth or #fame. It is the result of personal effort, #creativity, and contribution to society’s #GreaterGood. The tension between achieving for oneself and achieving for the collective good creates a nuanced approach to happiness — one that blends personal fulfillment with a sense of responsibility to the whole.

    "This balancing act is particularly evident in the realms of education and entrepreneurship. In a world where the pressure to survive has been lifted, more people are free to pursue their dreams and develop new ideas. But does this individual drive to succeed come at the cost of social cohesion? In this future, innovation and entrepreneurship are celebrated, but they must be seen in the context of societal well-being. As people rise to success, they are encouraged to think about how their achievements can improve the lives of others. The concept of wealth shifts, moving away from mere accumulation to the idea of access — being able to live a life that goes beyond survival to one of exploration, joy, and meaningful contribution.

    "Ultimately, the 'Stabilized World' scenario presents a society where personal ambition and collective stability coexist. As people work to achieve their own goals, they do so in a framework that ensures the well-being of all. This makes us ask: Is true happiness found in the wealth we accumulate or in the security we offer one another? The pursuit of success is no longer just about individual triumph; it’s about how we can innovate, create, and live in ways that benefit everyone. In this future, we learn that the intersection of personal ambition and social welfare isn’t a battle to be won but a balance to be struck, with both paths leading to a richer, more fulfilling life for all."

    Link to article (includes references):
    duskinwayne.com/arts-and-cultu

    #SolarPunkSunday #SW #LtG #LimitsToGrowth #SolarPunk #GuaranteedIncomeForAll #UsingTechnologyForGood

  29. And lastly, leaving you all with this essay by #DuskinWayne. The key takeaway I got from this is that wanting to achieve success isn't limited to capitalistic / selfish pursuits -- it can be utilized to create #ABetterWorld for everyone and the planet. (Note -- I don't agree with everything Duskin Wayne says, but I found it interesting in terms of thinking about 'what is human nature'?)

    #StabilizedWorld: Social Welfare vs. Independent Pursuit of Success

    Published 2025

    "Imagine a future where technology has solved many of the world’s biggest problems, creating a society that is more stable and equitable. MIT’s Fourth Scenario, the 'Stabilized World,' envisions a society where basic needs—like healthcare, education, and income—are guaranteed for everyone. With the rise of artificial intelligence and automation, labor has been redefined, allowing people to focus on what truly matters to them. In this world, the question becomes: Is happiness found in the security of a welfare state, or in the personal achievements that come from pursuing one’s own version of success? According to the scenario, this societal stability follows a period of collapse that is predicted to occur between 2030 and 2060, as we face #EnvironmentalCrises and economic #disparity.

    "In this future, social welfare isn’t just a safety net but a foundational element of society. No longer do individuals need to fear falling into poverty or being excluded from opportunities. With a guaranteed basic income and universal access to essential services, people are free to explore their passions, whether that’s launching a startup, creating art, or dedicating time to personal development. This system allows for creativity and innovation to flourish, but it also raises a fundamental question: What drives happiness—personal success or the stability that comes from being part of a secure, #collective society?

    "Although basic needs are met for everyone, the desire to achieve more, whether in wealth, status, or recognition, doesn’t disappear. In fact, many would argue that the pursuit of success is what gives life meaning, even in a world where the basics are assured. While the 'Stabilized World' provides a cushion, individuals are still encouraged to push boundaries, create, and innovate. But here, success is not solely defined by financial #wealth or #fame. It is the result of personal effort, #creativity, and contribution to society’s #GreaterGood. The tension between achieving for oneself and achieving for the collective good creates a nuanced approach to happiness — one that blends personal fulfillment with a sense of responsibility to the whole.

    "This balancing act is particularly evident in the realms of education and entrepreneurship. In a world where the pressure to survive has been lifted, more people are free to pursue their dreams and develop new ideas. But does this individual drive to succeed come at the cost of social cohesion? In this future, innovation and entrepreneurship are celebrated, but they must be seen in the context of societal well-being. As people rise to success, they are encouraged to think about how their achievements can improve the lives of others. The concept of wealth shifts, moving away from mere accumulation to the idea of access — being able to live a life that goes beyond survival to one of exploration, joy, and meaningful contribution.

    "Ultimately, the 'Stabilized World' scenario presents a society where personal ambition and collective stability coexist. As people work to achieve their own goals, they do so in a framework that ensures the well-being of all. This makes us ask: Is true happiness found in the wealth we accumulate or in the security we offer one another? The pursuit of success is no longer just about individual triumph; it’s about how we can innovate, create, and live in ways that benefit everyone. In this future, we learn that the intersection of personal ambition and social welfare isn’t a battle to be won but a balance to be struck, with both paths leading to a richer, more fulfilling life for all."

    Link to article (includes references):
    duskinwayne.com/arts-and-cultu

    #SolarPunkSunday #SW #LtG #LimitsToGrowth #SolarPunk #GuaranteedIncomeForAll #UsingTechnologyForGood

  30. And lastly, leaving you all with this essay by #DuskinWayne. The key takeaway I got from this is that wanting to achieve success isn't limited to capitalistic / selfish pursuits -- it can be utilized to create #ABetterWorld for everyone and the planet. (Note -- I don't agree with everything Duskin Wayne says, but I found it interesting in terms of thinking about 'what is human nature'?)

    #StabilizedWorld: Social Welfare vs. Independent Pursuit of Success

    Published 2025

    "Imagine a future where technology has solved many of the world’s biggest problems, creating a society that is more stable and equitable. MIT’s Fourth Scenario, the 'Stabilized World,' envisions a society where basic needs—like healthcare, education, and income—are guaranteed for everyone. With the rise of artificial intelligence and automation, labor has been redefined, allowing people to focus on what truly matters to them. In this world, the question becomes: Is happiness found in the security of a welfare state, or in the personal achievements that come from pursuing one’s own version of success? According to the scenario, this societal stability follows a period of collapse that is predicted to occur between 2030 and 2060, as we face #EnvironmentalCrises and economic #disparity.

    "In this future, social welfare isn’t just a safety net but a foundational element of society. No longer do individuals need to fear falling into poverty or being excluded from opportunities. With a guaranteed basic income and universal access to essential services, people are free to explore their passions, whether that’s launching a startup, creating art, or dedicating time to personal development. This system allows for creativity and innovation to flourish, but it also raises a fundamental question: What drives happiness—personal success or the stability that comes from being part of a secure, #collective society?

    "Although basic needs are met for everyone, the desire to achieve more, whether in wealth, status, or recognition, doesn’t disappear. In fact, many would argue that the pursuit of success is what gives life meaning, even in a world where the basics are assured. While the 'Stabilized World' provides a cushion, individuals are still encouraged to push boundaries, create, and innovate. But here, success is not solely defined by financial #wealth or #fame. It is the result of personal effort, #creativity, and contribution to society’s #GreaterGood. The tension between achieving for oneself and achieving for the collective good creates a nuanced approach to happiness — one that blends personal fulfillment with a sense of responsibility to the whole.

    "This balancing act is particularly evident in the realms of education and entrepreneurship. In a world where the pressure to survive has been lifted, more people are free to pursue their dreams and develop new ideas. But does this individual drive to succeed come at the cost of social cohesion? In this future, innovation and entrepreneurship are celebrated, but they must be seen in the context of societal well-being. As people rise to success, they are encouraged to think about how their achievements can improve the lives of others. The concept of wealth shifts, moving away from mere accumulation to the idea of access — being able to live a life that goes beyond survival to one of exploration, joy, and meaningful contribution.

    "Ultimately, the 'Stabilized World' scenario presents a society where personal ambition and collective stability coexist. As people work to achieve their own goals, they do so in a framework that ensures the well-being of all. This makes us ask: Is true happiness found in the wealth we accumulate or in the security we offer one another? The pursuit of success is no longer just about individual triumph; it’s about how we can innovate, create, and live in ways that benefit everyone. In this future, we learn that the intersection of personal ambition and social welfare isn’t a battle to be won but a balance to be struck, with both paths leading to a richer, more fulfilling life for all."

    Link to article (includes references):
    duskinwayne.com/arts-and-cultu

    #SolarPunkSunday #SW #LtG #LimitsToGrowth #SolarPunk #GuaranteedIncomeForAll #UsingTechnologyForGood

  31. Back to Eric Cline's updated preface to "1177 BC The Year Civilization Collapsed":

    "When the end came, as it did after centuries of cultural and technological evolution, most of the civilized and international world of the Mediterranean regions came to a dramatic halt in a vast area stretching from what is now Italy to Afghanistan and from Turkey down to Egypt. Large empires and small kingdoms, which had taken centuries to evolve, collapsed rapidly, from the Myceneans and Minoans to the Hittites, Assyrians, Babylonians, Mitannians, Cyppriots, Canaanites, and even Egyptians.

    "And with their end came a period of transition, frequently described by scholars as the world's first Dark Age. It was not until centuries later that a new cultural renaissance emerged in greece and the other affected areas, settig the stage of the evolution of society as we know it today." (Cline, 1177BC, page xvi).

    However, "Some regions in Greece, such as Attica, Euboea, and central Crete, recovered economically from these events faster than others, but life for common Greeks would have remained relatively unchanged as it had for centuries. There was still farming, weaving, metalworking and pottery but at a lower level of output and for local use in local styles," (Wikipedia, The Greek Dark Ages).

    In other words, #Degrowth! Also, the foundations of democracy (though limited to Greek male landowners). "Greece during this period was likely divided into independent regions organized by kinship groups and the oikoi or households, the origins of the later poleis. Most Greeks did not live in isolated farmsteads but in small settlements." So, smaller settlements and groups. Kinda what is predicted in some of the #LtG scenarios, but with the added *bonus* of pollution. (There was also #ClimateChange during the #LateBronzeAge, which was marked by droughts and crop failures).

    Will we form smaller communities? Will we unite and use technology wisely before it's too late? Time will tell...

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_Da

    #SocietalChange
    #SW #LtG #LimitsToGrowth
    #HistoryRepeating #BronzeAgeCollapse

  32. So, it's not all bad news... I came across this from the "Recalibration" article referenced earlier... I plan on reading this soon!

    #EarthForAll: A #Survival Guide for #Humanity

    "Published in 2022, this book details the findings of our initiative and details how we can steer humanity away from #ecological and #social catastrophe.

    "The book is the result of collaboration between the 21st century Transformational Economics Commission and systems analysts and modelling teams. The lead authors are Sandrine Dixson-Declève, Owen Gaffney, Jayati Ghosh, Jørgen Randers, Johan Rockström and Per Espen Stoknes.

    "The economic system keeps crashing. It's time to install a new operating system.

    "Earth for All is both an antidote to despair and a road map to a better future. Using powerful state-of-the-art computer modeling to explore policies likely to deliver the most good for the majority of people, a leading group of scientists and economists from around the world present five extraordinary turnarounds to achieve prosperity for all within planetary limits in a single generation.

    Coverage includes:

    - Results of new global modeling that indicates falling wellbeing and rising social tensions
    - heighten risk of regional societal collapses

    "Two alternative scenarios – #TooLittleTooLate vs #TheGiantLeap – and what they mean for our collective future

    - Five system-shifting steps that can upend poverty and inequality, lift up marginalized people, and transform our food and energy systems by 2050

    - A clear pathway to reboot our global economic system so it works for all people and the planet.

    "Written in an open, accessible, and inspirational style using clear language and high impact visuals, Earth for All  is a profound vision for uncertain times and a map to a better future."

    Giant leap

    "This scenario assumes societies embark on a new path to a #sustainable world by 2050. What if we fundamentally reconfigure our economies, energy and food systems so that they work for both people and the planet? Can we avoid the worst of #ClimateChange impacts and increase our societies’ resilience to shocks? Will we succeed in ending extreme poverty, guaranteeing everyone a healthy diet and access to quality education and healthcare?"

    Book:
    earth4all.life/the-book/

    Website:
    earth4all.life/

    #SolarPunk #SocietalChange #SW #World3 #LtG #LimitsToGrowth #StabilizedWorld #resilience #SharingEconomy #Sustainability #Technology #GiantLeap #SolarPunkSunday

  33. A more pessimistic outlook, based on 2023 recalibrations... (From #Resiliency.org)

    #LimitsToGrowth was right about collapse

    By Andrew Curry, May 20, 2025

    Excerpt: "Downhill from here

    "The last chart assembles something from the data that wasn’t done in the original Limits to Growth work because the concept hadn’t been developed. But it is possible to assemble a #HumanDevelopmentIndex from the data, and reference it against the original model and the revised version. It doesn’t come out well.

    (Source: Nebel et al, 2023, adapted Klement)

    "On this last chart, Klement is most depressed, and I think with good reason:

    " 'If [this chart] is true, it says that today is peak human civilisation, from now on we are going backward on a global level in terms of human development and quality of life, While some countries will continue to improve, other countries and the planet as a whole will start to go backward, ultimately dropping back to similar levels of human development and quality of life as in 1900 by the end of this century.'

    "Tipping point

    "The overall conclusion by the article’s authors is:

    " '[T]he model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and #IndustrialAgriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer #sustainable. #Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.

    "They also note that the cause of this turning point is resources, not ‘pollution’:

    " 'This interconnected collapse… occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution.

    "They also have an interesting caveat. This is that the way the #World3 model works is a through a set of connections that exist within an environment of growth. In an environment of decline, they are likely to reconfigure themselves in different ways. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a decline—just that the current lines in the model that describe it may not follow quite the same patterns.

    "But one final note from me. Economists get over-excited when anyone mentions ‘#degrowth’, and fellow-travellers such as the Tony Blair Institute treat climate policy as if it is some kind of typical 1990s political discussion. The point is that we’re going to get degrowth whether we think it’s a good idea or not. The data here is, in effect, about the tipping point at the end of a 200-to-250-year exponential curve, at least in the richer parts of the world. The only question is whether we manage degrowth or just let it happen to us. This isn’t a neutral question. I know which one of these is worse."

    Read more:
    resilience.org/stories/2025-05

    #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
    #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
    #Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse

  34. A more pessimistic outlook, based on 2023 recalibrations... (From #Resiliency.org)

    #LimitsToGrowth was right about collapse

    By Andrew Curry, May 20, 2025

    Excerpt: "Downhill from here

    "The last chart assembles something from the data that wasn’t done in the original Limits to Growth work because the concept hadn’t been developed. But it is possible to assemble a #HumanDevelopmentIndex from the data, and reference it against the original model and the revised version. It doesn’t come out well.

    (Source: Nebel et al, 2023, adapted Klement)

    "On this last chart, Klement is most depressed, and I think with good reason:

    " 'If [this chart] is true, it says that today is peak human civilisation, from now on we are going backward on a global level in terms of human development and quality of life, While some countries will continue to improve, other countries and the planet as a whole will start to go backward, ultimately dropping back to similar levels of human development and quality of life as in 1900 by the end of this century.'

    "Tipping point

    "The overall conclusion by the article’s authors is:

    " '[T]he model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and #IndustrialAgriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer #sustainable. #Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.

    "They also note that the cause of this turning point is resources, not ‘pollution’:

    " 'This interconnected collapse… occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution.

    "They also have an interesting caveat. This is that the way the #World3 model works is a through a set of connections that exist within an environment of growth. In an environment of decline, they are likely to reconfigure themselves in different ways. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a decline—just that the current lines in the model that describe it may not follow quite the same patterns.

    "But one final note from me. Economists get over-excited when anyone mentions ‘#degrowth’, and fellow-travellers such as the Tony Blair Institute treat climate policy as if it is some kind of typical 1990s political discussion. The point is that we’re going to get degrowth whether we think it’s a good idea or not. The data here is, in effect, about the tipping point at the end of a 200-to-250-year exponential curve, at least in the richer parts of the world. The only question is whether we manage degrowth or just let it happen to us. This isn’t a neutral question. I know which one of these is worse."

    Read more:
    resilience.org/stories/2025-05

    #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
    #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
    #Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse

  35. A more pessimistic outlook, based on 2023 recalibrations... (From #Resiliency.org)

    #LimitsToGrowth was right about collapse

    By Andrew Curry, May 20, 2025

    Excerpt: "Downhill from here

    "The last chart assembles something from the data that wasn’t done in the original Limits to Growth work because the concept hadn’t been developed. But it is possible to assemble a #HumanDevelopmentIndex from the data, and reference it against the original model and the revised version. It doesn’t come out well.

    (Source: Nebel et al, 2023, adapted Klement)

    "On this last chart, Klement is most depressed, and I think with good reason:

    " 'If [this chart] is true, it says that today is peak human civilisation, from now on we are going backward on a global level in terms of human development and quality of life, While some countries will continue to improve, other countries and the planet as a whole will start to go backward, ultimately dropping back to similar levels of human development and quality of life as in 1900 by the end of this century.'

    "Tipping point

    "The overall conclusion by the article’s authors is:

    " '[T]he model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and #IndustrialAgriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer #sustainable. #Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.

    "They also note that the cause of this turning point is resources, not ‘pollution’:

    " 'This interconnected collapse… occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution.

    "They also have an interesting caveat. This is that the way the #World3 model works is a through a set of connections that exist within an environment of growth. In an environment of decline, they are likely to reconfigure themselves in different ways. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a decline—just that the current lines in the model that describe it may not follow quite the same patterns.

    "But one final note from me. Economists get over-excited when anyone mentions ‘#degrowth’, and fellow-travellers such as the Tony Blair Institute treat climate policy as if it is some kind of typical 1990s political discussion. The point is that we’re going to get degrowth whether we think it’s a good idea or not. The data here is, in effect, about the tipping point at the end of a 200-to-250-year exponential curve, at least in the richer parts of the world. The only question is whether we manage degrowth or just let it happen to us. This isn’t a neutral question. I know which one of these is worse."

    Read more:
    resilience.org/stories/2025-05

    #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
    #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
    #Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse

  36. A more pessimistic outlook, based on 2023 recalibrations... (From #Resiliency.org)

    #LimitsToGrowth was right about collapse

    By Andrew Curry, May 20, 2025

    Excerpt: "Downhill from here

    "The last chart assembles something from the data that wasn’t done in the original Limits to Growth work because the concept hadn’t been developed. But it is possible to assemble a #HumanDevelopmentIndex from the data, and reference it against the original model and the revised version. It doesn’t come out well.

    (Source: Nebel et al, 2023, adapted Klement)

    "On this last chart, Klement is most depressed, and I think with good reason:

    " 'If [this chart] is true, it says that today is peak human civilisation, from now on we are going backward on a global level in terms of human development and quality of life, While some countries will continue to improve, other countries and the planet as a whole will start to go backward, ultimately dropping back to similar levels of human development and quality of life as in 1900 by the end of this century.'

    "Tipping point

    "The overall conclusion by the article’s authors is:

    " '[T]he model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and #IndustrialAgriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer #sustainable. #Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.

    "They also note that the cause of this turning point is resources, not ‘pollution’:

    " 'This interconnected collapse… occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution.

    "They also have an interesting caveat. This is that the way the #World3 model works is a through a set of connections that exist within an environment of growth. In an environment of decline, they are likely to reconfigure themselves in different ways. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a decline—just that the current lines in the model that describe it may not follow quite the same patterns.

    "But one final note from me. Economists get over-excited when anyone mentions ‘#degrowth’, and fellow-travellers such as the Tony Blair Institute treat climate policy as if it is some kind of typical 1990s political discussion. The point is that we’re going to get degrowth whether we think it’s a good idea or not. The data here is, in effect, about the tipping point at the end of a 200-to-250-year exponential curve, at least in the richer parts of the world. The only question is whether we manage degrowth or just let it happen to us. This isn’t a neutral question. I know which one of these is worse."

    Read more:
    resilience.org/stories/2025-05

    #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
    #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
    #Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse

  37. A more pessimistic outlook, based on 2023 recalibrations... (From #Resiliency.org)

    #LimitsToGrowth was right about collapse

    By Andrew Curry, May 20, 2025

    Excerpt: "Downhill from here

    "The last chart assembles something from the data that wasn’t done in the original Limits to Growth work because the concept hadn’t been developed. But it is possible to assemble a #HumanDevelopmentIndex from the data, and reference it against the original model and the revised version. It doesn’t come out well.

    (Source: Nebel et al, 2023, adapted Klement)

    "On this last chart, Klement is most depressed, and I think with good reason:

    " 'If [this chart] is true, it says that today is peak human civilisation, from now on we are going backward on a global level in terms of human development and quality of life, While some countries will continue to improve, other countries and the planet as a whole will start to go backward, ultimately dropping back to similar levels of human development and quality of life as in 1900 by the end of this century.'

    "Tipping point

    "The overall conclusion by the article’s authors is:

    " '[T]he model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and #IndustrialAgriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer #sustainable. #Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.

    "They also note that the cause of this turning point is resources, not ‘pollution’:

    " 'This interconnected collapse… occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution.

    "They also have an interesting caveat. This is that the way the #World3 model works is a through a set of connections that exist within an environment of growth. In an environment of decline, they are likely to reconfigure themselves in different ways. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a decline—just that the current lines in the model that describe it may not follow quite the same patterns.

    "But one final note from me. Economists get over-excited when anyone mentions ‘#degrowth’, and fellow-travellers such as the Tony Blair Institute treat climate policy as if it is some kind of typical 1990s political discussion. The point is that we’re going to get degrowth whether we think it’s a good idea or not. The data here is, in effect, about the tipping point at the end of a 200-to-250-year exponential curve, at least in the richer parts of the world. The only question is whether we manage degrowth or just let it happen to us. This isn’t a neutral question. I know which one of these is worse."

    Read more:
    resilience.org/stories/2025-05

    #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
    #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
    #Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse

  38. Journalist and technology writer Kaif Shaikh disagrees with #GayaHerrington, in this 2025 response. Kaif refers to #JoachimKlement, an economist, who believes that we are already on the way to a collapse, with society returning to the way it was in the 1900s (more about that in another post).

    "So, where are we now, and what is the responsible takeaway?

    "The 1972 framework still describes the structure of our situation. Herrington’s 2021 comparison shows that the world’s recent history has tracked World3’s growth-first pathways closely enough to warrant concern about declines later this century, potentially beginning to bite this decade. Her 2022 reflection adds two critical refinements. The divergence among futures happens after 2020, and the most livable path requires a conscious redesign of priorities toward efficiency, pollution control, and social investment rather than throughput.

    "The Nebel et al. recalibration, as interpreted by Klement, indicates that even after re-estimating parameters with better data, the system still exhibits overshoot and collapse, with the trigger rooted in resource depletion. The implication is that 'more of the same, but faster' is not a strategy. It is precisely what turns today’s creativity into tomorrow’s fragility.

    "If there is one message to carry forward, it is Herrington’s: the window for a deliberate trajectory change is narrow but real. The 'Stabilized World' is not a utopian fantasy layered onto a model. It emerges from the same feedback structure that produces overshoot under different goals. Change the goal, and the loops that currently amplify stress can be redirected to reinforce #resilience.

    "That change looks less like a silver bullet and more like a portfolio of priorities that the model especially favors. Using fewer resources per unit of well-being, investing in pollution abatement so damages do not accumulate, and building health and education services that improve human welfare without relying on ever-rising material throughput.

    "It is also important to be precise about uncertainty. The studies do not claim to know exactly when or how any particular nation will experience stress. #World3 is a global model of dynamics, not a country-by-country forecast. Nor do the authors claim that technology is useless.

    "Quite the opposite. Technology can raise ceilings and delay peaks. But as co-author #DennisMeadows has often emphasized in discussions about #LimitsToGrowth over the years, higher peaks without structural change can mean sharper falls (#Overshoots).

    "Herrington’s point is that 'technology plus the same goal' keeps us on the wrong curve. Technology deployed in the service of different goals, efficiency, abatement, and human development, separated from material throughput, can move us onto the SW trajectory.

    "Finally, the recalibration’s note about system behavior under contraction deserves attention. If the world does tip into decline, feedbacks may rearrange themselves in ways the original model cannot fully capture. That is not a reason to dismiss the warning. It is a reason to move earlier, while our degrees of freedom are greater, and adaptation can be shaped rather than suffered. The studies summarized here do not argue that collapse is inevitable. They suggest that collapse is a real risk if we keep our current goals, and that avoiding it means choosing new ones."

    Read more:
    interestingengineering.com/cul

    Archived version:
    archive.ph/mUIa2

    #SolarPunkSunday #SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange

  39. Journalist and technology writer Kaif Shaikh disagrees with #GayaHerrington, in this 2025 response. Kaif refers to #JoachimKlement, an economist, who believes that we are already on the way to a collapse, with society returning to the way it was in the 1900s (more about that in another post).

    "So, where are we now, and what is the responsible takeaway?

    "The 1972 framework still describes the structure of our situation. Herrington’s 2021 comparison shows that the world’s recent history has tracked World3’s growth-first pathways closely enough to warrant concern about declines later this century, potentially beginning to bite this decade. Her 2022 reflection adds two critical refinements. The divergence among futures happens after 2020, and the most livable path requires a conscious redesign of priorities toward efficiency, pollution control, and social investment rather than throughput.

    "The Nebel et al. recalibration, as interpreted by Klement, indicates that even after re-estimating parameters with better data, the system still exhibits overshoot and collapse, with the trigger rooted in resource depletion. The implication is that 'more of the same, but faster' is not a strategy. It is precisely what turns today’s creativity into tomorrow’s fragility.

    "If there is one message to carry forward, it is Herrington’s: the window for a deliberate trajectory change is narrow but real. The 'Stabilized World' is not a utopian fantasy layered onto a model. It emerges from the same feedback structure that produces overshoot under different goals. Change the goal, and the loops that currently amplify stress can be redirected to reinforce #resilience.

    "That change looks less like a silver bullet and more like a portfolio of priorities that the model especially favors. Using fewer resources per unit of well-being, investing in pollution abatement so damages do not accumulate, and building health and education services that improve human welfare without relying on ever-rising material throughput.

    "It is also important to be precise about uncertainty. The studies do not claim to know exactly when or how any particular nation will experience stress. #World3 is a global model of dynamics, not a country-by-country forecast. Nor do the authors claim that technology is useless.

    "Quite the opposite. Technology can raise ceilings and delay peaks. But as co-author #DennisMeadows has often emphasized in discussions about #LimitsToGrowth over the years, higher peaks without structural change can mean sharper falls (#Overshoots).

    "Herrington’s point is that 'technology plus the same goal' keeps us on the wrong curve. Technology deployed in the service of different goals, efficiency, abatement, and human development, separated from material throughput, can move us onto the SW trajectory.

    "Finally, the recalibration’s note about system behavior under contraction deserves attention. If the world does tip into decline, feedbacks may rearrange themselves in ways the original model cannot fully capture. That is not a reason to dismiss the warning. It is a reason to move earlier, while our degrees of freedom are greater, and adaptation can be shaped rather than suffered. The studies summarized here do not argue that collapse is inevitable. They suggest that collapse is a real risk if we keep our current goals, and that avoiding it means choosing new ones."

    Read more:
    interestingengineering.com/cul

    Archived version:
    archive.ph/mUIa2

    #SolarPunkSunday #SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange

  40. Journalist and technology writer Kaif Shaikh disagrees with #GayaHerrington, in this 2025 response. Kaif refers to #JoachimKlement, an economist, who believes that we are already on the way to a collapse, with society returning to the way it was in the 1900s (more about that in another post).

    "So, where are we now, and what is the responsible takeaway?

    "The 1972 framework still describes the structure of our situation. Herrington’s 2021 comparison shows that the world’s recent history has tracked World3’s growth-first pathways closely enough to warrant concern about declines later this century, potentially beginning to bite this decade. Her 2022 reflection adds two critical refinements. The divergence among futures happens after 2020, and the most livable path requires a conscious redesign of priorities toward efficiency, pollution control, and social investment rather than throughput.

    "The Nebel et al. recalibration, as interpreted by Klement, indicates that even after re-estimating parameters with better data, the system still exhibits overshoot and collapse, with the trigger rooted in resource depletion. The implication is that 'more of the same, but faster' is not a strategy. It is precisely what turns today’s creativity into tomorrow’s fragility.

    "If there is one message to carry forward, it is Herrington’s: the window for a deliberate trajectory change is narrow but real. The 'Stabilized World' is not a utopian fantasy layered onto a model. It emerges from the same feedback structure that produces overshoot under different goals. Change the goal, and the loops that currently amplify stress can be redirected to reinforce #resilience.

    "That change looks less like a silver bullet and more like a portfolio of priorities that the model especially favors. Using fewer resources per unit of well-being, investing in pollution abatement so damages do not accumulate, and building health and education services that improve human welfare without relying on ever-rising material throughput.

    "It is also important to be precise about uncertainty. The studies do not claim to know exactly when or how any particular nation will experience stress. #World3 is a global model of dynamics, not a country-by-country forecast. Nor do the authors claim that technology is useless.

    "Quite the opposite. Technology can raise ceilings and delay peaks. But as co-author #DennisMeadows has often emphasized in discussions about #LimitsToGrowth over the years, higher peaks without structural change can mean sharper falls (#Overshoots).

    "Herrington’s point is that 'technology plus the same goal' keeps us on the wrong curve. Technology deployed in the service of different goals, efficiency, abatement, and human development, separated from material throughput, can move us onto the SW trajectory.

    "Finally, the recalibration’s note about system behavior under contraction deserves attention. If the world does tip into decline, feedbacks may rearrange themselves in ways the original model cannot fully capture. That is not a reason to dismiss the warning. It is a reason to move earlier, while our degrees of freedom are greater, and adaptation can be shaped rather than suffered. The studies summarized here do not argue that collapse is inevitable. They suggest that collapse is a real risk if we keep our current goals, and that avoiding it means choosing new ones."

    Read more:
    interestingengineering.com/cul

    Archived version:
    archive.ph/mUIa2

    #SolarPunkSunday #SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange

  41. Journalist and technology writer Kaif Shaikh disagrees with #GayaHerrington, in this 2025 response. Kaif refers to #JoachimKlement, an economist, who believes that we are already on the way to a collapse, with society returning to the way it was in the 1900s (more about that in another post).

    "So, where are we now, and what is the responsible takeaway?

    "The 1972 framework still describes the structure of our situation. Herrington’s 2021 comparison shows that the world’s recent history has tracked World3’s growth-first pathways closely enough to warrant concern about declines later this century, potentially beginning to bite this decade. Her 2022 reflection adds two critical refinements. The divergence among futures happens after 2020, and the most livable path requires a conscious redesign of priorities toward efficiency, pollution control, and social investment rather than throughput.

    "The Nebel et al. recalibration, as interpreted by Klement, indicates that even after re-estimating parameters with better data, the system still exhibits overshoot and collapse, with the trigger rooted in resource depletion. The implication is that 'more of the same, but faster' is not a strategy. It is precisely what turns today’s creativity into tomorrow’s fragility.

    "If there is one message to carry forward, it is Herrington’s: the window for a deliberate trajectory change is narrow but real. The 'Stabilized World' is not a utopian fantasy layered onto a model. It emerges from the same feedback structure that produces overshoot under different goals. Change the goal, and the loops that currently amplify stress can be redirected to reinforce #resilience.

    "That change looks less like a silver bullet and more like a portfolio of priorities that the model especially favors. Using fewer resources per unit of well-being, investing in pollution abatement so damages do not accumulate, and building health and education services that improve human welfare without relying on ever-rising material throughput.

    "It is also important to be precise about uncertainty. The studies do not claim to know exactly when or how any particular nation will experience stress. #World3 is a global model of dynamics, not a country-by-country forecast. Nor do the authors claim that technology is useless.

    "Quite the opposite. Technology can raise ceilings and delay peaks. But as co-author #DennisMeadows has often emphasized in discussions about #LimitsToGrowth over the years, higher peaks without structural change can mean sharper falls (#Overshoots).

    "Herrington’s point is that 'technology plus the same goal' keeps us on the wrong curve. Technology deployed in the service of different goals, efficiency, abatement, and human development, separated from material throughput, can move us onto the SW trajectory.

    "Finally, the recalibration’s note about system behavior under contraction deserves attention. If the world does tip into decline, feedbacks may rearrange themselves in ways the original model cannot fully capture. That is not a reason to dismiss the warning. It is a reason to move earlier, while our degrees of freedom are greater, and adaptation can be shaped rather than suffered. The studies summarized here do not argue that collapse is inevitable. They suggest that collapse is a real risk if we keep our current goals, and that avoiding it means choosing new ones."

    Read more:
    interestingengineering.com/cul

    Archived version:
    archive.ph/mUIa2

    #SolarPunkSunday #SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange

  42. Journalist and technology writer Kaif Shaikh disagrees with #GayaHerrington, in this 2025 response. Kaif refers to #JoachimKlement, an economist, who believes that we are already on the way to a collapse, with society returning to the way it was in the 1900s (more about that in another post).

    "So, where are we now, and what is the responsible takeaway?

    "The 1972 framework still describes the structure of our situation. Herrington’s 2021 comparison shows that the world’s recent history has tracked World3’s growth-first pathways closely enough to warrant concern about declines later this century, potentially beginning to bite this decade. Her 2022 reflection adds two critical refinements. The divergence among futures happens after 2020, and the most livable path requires a conscious redesign of priorities toward efficiency, pollution control, and social investment rather than throughput.

    "The Nebel et al. recalibration, as interpreted by Klement, indicates that even after re-estimating parameters with better data, the system still exhibits overshoot and collapse, with the trigger rooted in resource depletion. The implication is that 'more of the same, but faster' is not a strategy. It is precisely what turns today’s creativity into tomorrow’s fragility.

    "If there is one message to carry forward, it is Herrington’s: the window for a deliberate trajectory change is narrow but real. The 'Stabilized World' is not a utopian fantasy layered onto a model. It emerges from the same feedback structure that produces overshoot under different goals. Change the goal, and the loops that currently amplify stress can be redirected to reinforce #resilience.

    "That change looks less like a silver bullet and more like a portfolio of priorities that the model especially favors. Using fewer resources per unit of well-being, investing in pollution abatement so damages do not accumulate, and building health and education services that improve human welfare without relying on ever-rising material throughput.

    "It is also important to be precise about uncertainty. The studies do not claim to know exactly when or how any particular nation will experience stress. #World3 is a global model of dynamics, not a country-by-country forecast. Nor do the authors claim that technology is useless.

    "Quite the opposite. Technology can raise ceilings and delay peaks. But as co-author #DennisMeadows has often emphasized in discussions about #LimitsToGrowth over the years, higher peaks without structural change can mean sharper falls (#Overshoots).

    "Herrington’s point is that 'technology plus the same goal' keeps us on the wrong curve. Technology deployed in the service of different goals, efficiency, abatement, and human development, separated from material throughput, can move us onto the SW trajectory.

    "Finally, the recalibration’s note about system behavior under contraction deserves attention. If the world does tip into decline, feedbacks may rearrange themselves in ways the original model cannot fully capture. That is not a reason to dismiss the warning. It is a reason to move earlier, while our degrees of freedom are greater, and adaptation can be shaped rather than suffered. The studies summarized here do not argue that collapse is inevitable. They suggest that collapse is a real risk if we keep our current goals, and that avoiding it means choosing new ones."

    Read more:
    interestingengineering.com/cul

    Archived version:
    archive.ph/mUIa2

    #SolarPunkSunday #SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange

  43. Gaya Herrington's chart showing #HumanWelfare and the #LimitsToGrowth, beginning from 1900 to the future (2100).

    The graph has 4 lines - SW (yellow), CT (blue), BAU2 (red), and BAU (dark blue). The yellow line dips down slightly, then is pretty even. All the other lines point downward, with BAU being the furthest down (indicating a very bad quality of life for humans).

    "Here, I’ll just share my conclusions, illustrated by a graph of the variable people might be most concerned with: living standards (Figure 1). This graph is from my upcoming book Five Insights for Avoiding Global Collapse, soon available online under Creative Commons, which contains further research analysis and 2022 data update of my comparison.

    "I found an overall close alignment of empirical data with the scenarios, for now, because they only diverge significantly after 2020. This accuracy decades into the future gives reason to take the #World3 dynamics seriously. If we do that, we unfortunately must conclude that the future holds risks of declines in welfare, among other things, and some of these declines are indeed steep enough to constitute a collapse. The scenario indicated with 'SW' shows no collapse and the highest living standards. However, empirical data aligned least closely to SW.

    "I interpret all this as humanity having a now or never opportunity to change direction. Contrary to what my friend texted me, I did not predict the end of the world, just like #LtG didn’t at the time; I noticed #WarningSignals and voiced a call to action. Empirical data are not far from SW yet, and humankind can determine where future data points fall. How? Well, there is one key difference between SW and the other scenarios: in SW, humanity consciously lets go of growth as its goal. Under SW assumptions, society shifts priorities away from industrial output growth towards resource efficiency, #pollution abatement, and #health and #education services. We can do that in the real world too.

    "Will we? Before you answer that question in your head, let’s frame it properly. Because this is not about whether we want to avoid collapse; it’s whether we want better. SW represents a redesign of society away from material consumption, around human and #ecological well-being. Yes, that would take a lot of effort. But we’d also be working on healing society, towards a future of thriving. Does that sound to you like something worth putting in work for?"

    In other words, and end to #Capitalism and implementation of #Degrowth, with the goal being healthy, educated humans living on a planet that they are actively trying to clean-up!

    Source:
    clubofrome.org/blog-post/herri

    #SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis
    #EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide

  44. Gaya Herrington's chart showing #HumanWelfare and the #LimitsToGrowth, beginning from 1900 to the future (2100).

    The graph has 4 lines - SW (yellow), CT (blue), BAU2 (red), and BAU (dark blue). The yellow line dips down slightly, then is pretty even. All the other lines point downward, with BAU being the furthest down (indicating a very bad quality of life for humans).

    "Here, I’ll just share my conclusions, illustrated by a graph of the variable people might be most concerned with: living standards (Figure 1). This graph is from my upcoming book Five Insights for Avoiding Global Collapse, soon available online under Creative Commons, which contains further research analysis and 2022 data update of my comparison.

    "I found an overall close alignment of empirical data with the scenarios, for now, because they only diverge significantly after 2020. This accuracy decades into the future gives reason to take the #World3 dynamics seriously. If we do that, we unfortunately must conclude that the future holds risks of declines in welfare, among other things, and some of these declines are indeed steep enough to constitute a collapse. The scenario indicated with 'SW' shows no collapse and the highest living standards. However, empirical data aligned least closely to SW.

    "I interpret all this as humanity having a now or never opportunity to change direction. Contrary to what my friend texted me, I did not predict the end of the world, just like #LtG didn’t at the time; I noticed #WarningSignals and voiced a call to action. Empirical data are not far from SW yet, and humankind can determine where future data points fall. How? Well, there is one key difference between SW and the other scenarios: in SW, humanity consciously lets go of growth as its goal. Under SW assumptions, society shifts priorities away from industrial output growth towards resource efficiency, #pollution abatement, and #health and #education services. We can do that in the real world too.

    "Will we? Before you answer that question in your head, let’s frame it properly. Because this is not about whether we want to avoid collapse; it’s whether we want better. SW represents a redesign of society away from material consumption, around human and #ecological well-being. Yes, that would take a lot of effort. But we’d also be working on healing society, towards a future of thriving. Does that sound to you like something worth putting in work for?"

    In other words, and end to #Capitalism and implementation of #Degrowth, with the goal being healthy, educated humans living on a planet that they are actively trying to clean-up!

    Source:
    clubofrome.org/blog-post/herri

    #SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis
    #EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide

  45. Gaya Herrington's chart showing #HumanWelfare and the #LimitsToGrowth, beginning from 1900 to the future (2100).

    The graph has 4 lines - SW (yellow), CT (blue), BAU2 (red), and BAU (dark blue). The yellow line dips down slightly, then is pretty even. All the other lines point downward, with BAU being the furthest down (indicating a very bad quality of life for humans).

    "Here, I’ll just share my conclusions, illustrated by a graph of the variable people might be most concerned with: living standards (Figure 1). This graph is from my upcoming book Five Insights for Avoiding Global Collapse, soon available online under Creative Commons, which contains further research analysis and 2022 data update of my comparison.

    "I found an overall close alignment of empirical data with the scenarios, for now, because they only diverge significantly after 2020. This accuracy decades into the future gives reason to take the #World3 dynamics seriously. If we do that, we unfortunately must conclude that the future holds risks of declines in welfare, among other things, and some of these declines are indeed steep enough to constitute a collapse. The scenario indicated with 'SW' shows no collapse and the highest living standards. However, empirical data aligned least closely to SW.

    "I interpret all this as humanity having a now or never opportunity to change direction. Contrary to what my friend texted me, I did not predict the end of the world, just like #LtG didn’t at the time; I noticed #WarningSignals and voiced a call to action. Empirical data are not far from SW yet, and humankind can determine where future data points fall. How? Well, there is one key difference between SW and the other scenarios: in SW, humanity consciously lets go of growth as its goal. Under SW assumptions, society shifts priorities away from industrial output growth towards resource efficiency, #pollution abatement, and #health and #education services. We can do that in the real world too.

    "Will we? Before you answer that question in your head, let’s frame it properly. Because this is not about whether we want to avoid collapse; it’s whether we want better. SW represents a redesign of society away from material consumption, around human and #ecological well-being. Yes, that would take a lot of effort. But we’d also be working on healing society, towards a future of thriving. Does that sound to you like something worth putting in work for?"

    In other words, and end to #Capitalism and implementation of #Degrowth, with the goal being healthy, educated humans living on a planet that they are actively trying to clean-up!

    Source:
    clubofrome.org/blog-post/herri

    #SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis
    #EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide