#world3 — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #world3, aggregated by home.social.
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Excellent thread, @carapace ! #EcologicalLiteracy is absolutely crucial for a #SolarPunk future!
#SolarPunkSunday #Earth4All #World3 #StabilizedWorld #GiantLeap
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Well, here's a good use of #AI. Now, let's make it so!!! This is the #GiantLeap we all need to survive!
I Asked #ChatGPT What Would Happen If #Billionaires Paid Taxes at the Same Rate as the #WorkingClass
Story by Laura Beck
10/23/2025Excerpts:
What That Money Could Actually Buy
"To put these numbers in perspective, ChatGPT explained what this kind of revenue could fund. Even the conservative estimate of $500 billion per year could pay for transformative programs.
"That amount could cover free public #college tuition, universal pre-K programs, massive #infrastructure investments and a huge #healthcare expansion. It could fund comprehensive #ChildCare support and #FoodAssistance programs.
"The AI emphasized that we’re talking about enough money to fundamentally change how the government operates and what services it can provide."
The Global Ripple Effects
"ChatGPT pointed out that if major economies like the United States started taxing billionaires at working-class rates, it could encourage similar moves worldwide.
"This might lead to reduced global tax avoidance, more coordinated international tax policies and pressure on tax havens to reform their systems.
"The AI said this could create a positive cycle where it becomes harder for the ultra-wealthy to avoid paying their fair share anywhere in the world."
#World3 #SolarPunk #PayYourFairShare #Billionaires #TaxTheRich #UltraWealthy #NoTaxHavens #SocietalChange #ShareTheWealth #SolarPunkSunday
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Diagramme actualisé du World3 - Club de Rome (2023)
https://www.informassue.tuxfamily.org/pages/sans_lendemain.php#diagramme
Un #diagramme récent, en 2023, a été réalisé par une équipe de scientifiques de Cologne (Allemagne).#Recalibration23 #World3 #LtG #LimitsToGrowth #Population #Démographie #Meadows #MIT #ClubDeRome #BAU #BAU2 #Capitalisme #Croissance #Consommation #Surconsommation #Pollution #ToujoursPlus #Effondrement #Collapse #Science #Sciences
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#StorySeedLibrary helps us envision a better future! TY @MaQuest @alxd
#SolarPunkSunday #World3 #EarthForAll #SW #StabilizedWorld #DeGrowth #SharingEconomy #GiantLeap #Technology + #Sustainability
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Qui a vu passer cette mise à jour 2023, des scénarios BAU BAU2 par World3?
https://loma.ml/display/373ebf56-3468-ea2e-e592-849544773243
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Since my workplace is encouraging us to get to know AI tools, I've been utilizing them a wee bit. One thing I've found is that AI (at least Google AI) is willing and able to outline it's weaknesses. GOOD! Until we get a handle on this shit (especially corporate / capitalistic gain from it), I suppose it's good to get to know one's "enemy." And yes, if we could find a way to sustainably power AI and use it for the common good, it could help us. But given #CorporateColonialism and all, I wouldn't count on it.
#AI #TechBros #Tools #UsingTechnologyForGood #TheCommons #ShareKnowledge #OpenSource #LtG #World3 #StabilizedWorld #ABetterWorld #KnowledgeForTheFutureNotProfit
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Since my workplace is encouraging us to get to know AI tools, I've been utilizing them a wee bit. One thing I've found is that AI (at least Google AI) is willing and able to outline it's weaknesses. GOOD! Until we get a handle on this shit (especially corporate / capitalistic gain from it), I suppose it's good to get to know one's "enemy." And yes, if we could find a way to sustainably power AI and use it for the common good, it could help us. But given #CorporateColonialism and all, I wouldn't count on it.
#AI #TechBros #Tools #UsingTechnologyForGood #TheCommons #ShareKnowledge #OpenSource #LtG #World3 #StabilizedWorld #ABetterWorld #KnowledgeForTheFutureNotProfit
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Since my workplace is encouraging us to get to know AI tools, I've been utilizing them a wee bit. One thing I've found is that AI (at least Google AI) is willing and able to outline it's weaknesses. GOOD! Until we get a handle on this shit (especially corporate / capitalistic gain from it), I suppose it's good to get to know one's "enemy." And yes, if we could find a way to sustainably power AI and use it for the common good, it could help us. But given #CorporateColonialism and all, I wouldn't count on it.
#AI #TechBros #Tools #UsingTechnologyForGood #TheCommons #ShareKnowledge #OpenSource #LtG #World3 #StabilizedWorld #ABetterWorld #KnowledgeForTheFutureNotProfit
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Since my workplace is encouraging us to get to know AI tools, I've been utilizing them a wee bit. One thing I've found is that AI (at least Google AI) is willing and able to outline it's weaknesses. GOOD! Until we get a handle on this shit (especially corporate / capitalistic gain from it), I suppose it's good to get to know one's "enemy." And yes, if we could find a way to sustainably power AI and use it for the common good, it could help us. But given #CorporateColonialism and all, I wouldn't count on it.
#AI #TechBros #Tools #UsingTechnologyForGood #TheCommons #ShareKnowledge #OpenSource #LtG #World3 #StabilizedWorld #ABetterWorld #KnowledgeForTheFutureNotProfit
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Since my workplace is encouraging us to get to know AI tools, I've been utilizing them a wee bit. One thing I've found is that AI (at least Google AI) is willing and able to outline it's weaknesses. GOOD! Until we get a handle on this shit (especially corporate / capitalistic gain from it), I suppose it's good to get to know one's "enemy." And yes, if we could find a way to sustainably power AI and use it for the common good, it could help us. But given #CorporateColonialism and all, I wouldn't count on it.
#AI #TechBros #Tools #UsingTechnologyForGood #TheCommons #ShareKnowledge #OpenSource #LtG #World3 #StabilizedWorld #ABetterWorld #KnowledgeForTheFutureNotProfit
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Recalibrage des limites à la croissance: mise à jour du modèle #World3 (2023)
https://www.informassue.tuxfamily.org/pages/croissance.php?art=recalibrage23_limites_croissance_mise_a_jour_modele_world3
Après 50 ans, le débat sur l'étude "Les limites de la #croissance" est toujours d'actualité. L'article de recherche recalibre le modèle World3-03 de 2005. Les paramètres d'entrée sont modifiés pour mieux correspondre aux #données empiriques sur le #développement mondial.#Recalibration23 #LtG #LimitsToGrowth #Population #Démographie #Meadows #MIT #BAU #BAU2 #Capitalisme #Effondrement #Collapse
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Alrightly then... Time to start #SolarPunkSunday! Unless there's breaking news, I'll try and stay focused on SPS until at least late afternoon/evening on Sunday.
#Solidarity #GrowYourOwn #BuildingCommunity #RepairCafes #SeedSaving #InvasiveSpecies #Rewilding #HarvestTime #World3 #Earth4All #SharingEconomy #Resilience #StabilizedWorld #ClimateChangeAdaptation #SocietalChange #LtG #Sustainability
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World3 sur GitHub - Implémentation en Python de World3
https://loma.ml/display/373ebf56-1068-d313-a118-845100869980
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So, it's not all bad news... I came across this from the "Recalibration" article referenced earlier... I plan on reading this soon!
#EarthForAll: A #Survival Guide for #Humanity
"Published in 2022, this book details the findings of our initiative and details how we can steer humanity away from #ecological and #social catastrophe.
"The book is the result of collaboration between the 21st century Transformational Economics Commission and systems analysts and modelling teams. The lead authors are Sandrine Dixson-Declève, Owen Gaffney, Jayati Ghosh, Jørgen Randers, Johan Rockström and Per Espen Stoknes.
"The economic system keeps crashing. It's time to install a new operating system.
"Earth for All is both an antidote to despair and a road map to a better future. Using powerful state-of-the-art computer modeling to explore policies likely to deliver the most good for the majority of people, a leading group of scientists and economists from around the world present five extraordinary turnarounds to achieve prosperity for all within planetary limits in a single generation.
Coverage includes:
- Results of new global modeling that indicates falling wellbeing and rising social tensions
- heighten risk of regional societal collapses"Two alternative scenarios – #TooLittleTooLate vs #TheGiantLeap – and what they mean for our collective future
- Five system-shifting steps that can upend poverty and inequality, lift up marginalized people, and transform our food and energy systems by 2050
- A clear pathway to reboot our global economic system so it works for all people and the planet.
"Written in an open, accessible, and inspirational style using clear language and high impact visuals, Earth for All is a profound vision for uncertain times and a map to a better future."
Giant leap
"This scenario assumes societies embark on a new path to a #sustainable world by 2050. What if we fundamentally reconfigure our economies, energy and food systems so that they work for both people and the planet? Can we avoid the worst of #ClimateChange impacts and increase our societies’ resilience to shocks? Will we succeed in ending extreme poverty, guaranteeing everyone a healthy diet and access to quality education and healthcare?"
Book:
https://earth4all.life/the-book/Website:
https://earth4all.life/#SolarPunk #SocietalChange #SW #World3 #LtG #LimitsToGrowth #StabilizedWorld #resilience #SharingEconomy #Sustainability #Technology #GiantLeap #SolarPunkSunday
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From "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the #World3 model"
by Arjuna Nebel, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski, Tim Schell
First published: 13 November 2023
4.3 Future trends
"So far, the results have mainly been considered in comparison with the empirical data for the recalibration. However, the course of the variables is also interesting in terms of future trends. Here, the model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable. Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.
"This interconnected collapse, or, as it has been called by Heinberg and Miller (2023), #polycrisis, occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution. The increase in environmental pollution occurs later and with a lower peak (Figure 3).
"However, it is important to note that the connections in the model and the recalibration are only valid for the rising edge, as many of the variables and equations represented in the model are not physical but socio-economic. It is to be expected that the complex socio-economic relationships will be rearranged and reconnected in the event of a collapse. World3 holds the relationships between variables constant. Therefore it is not useful to draw further conclusions from the trajectory after the tipping points. Rather, it is important to recognize that there are large uncertainties about the trajectory from then on, building models for this could be a whole new field of research.
"The fact is that the recalibrated model again shows the possibility of a collapse of our current system. At the same time, the BAU scenario of the 1972 model is shown to be alarmingly consistent with the most recently collected empirical data.
"#Herrington (2021) also concluded in her data comparison that the world is far from a stabilized world scenario where the #overshoot and #collapse mode is brought to a halt. As a society, we have to admit that despite 50 years of knowledge about the dynamics of the collapse of our life support systems, we have failed to initiate a systematic change to prevent this collapse. It is becoming increasingly clear that, despite #technological advances, the change needed to put us on a different trajectory will also require a change in #BeliefSystems, #mindsets, and the way we organize our society (Irwin, 2015; Wamsler & Brink, 2018). [SW model]
"At the point of collapse, the resolution of the model also reaches the limit of further plausible statements. The regional differences in demographic and economic terms are too great to be reduced to simple, highly aggregated variables. To address this problem, a new system dynamics model has been developed on the occasion of #LtG's 50th anniversary which is called Earth for all (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). It introduces a regional resolution and a measure of social inequality and tension. There is also a greater focus on the causes and effects of the #ClimateCrisis. In #Earth4all, the authors no longer focus on scenarios with sharp declines in the main variables. Instead, the scenario Too little too late describes that the effects of the climate crisis will continue to increase and social tensions will rise, causing the well-being index to decline over time. In another scenario, #GiantLeap, it is shown that these negative developments could also be stopped. The authors then propose various policy changes to achieve this (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). "
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442
#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse #SolarPunk #SocietalChange #Degrowth #MindsetChange -
From "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the #World3 model"
by Arjuna Nebel, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski, Tim Schell
First published: 13 November 2023
4.3 Future trends
"So far, the results have mainly been considered in comparison with the empirical data for the recalibration. However, the course of the variables is also interesting in terms of future trends. Here, the model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable. Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.
"This interconnected collapse, or, as it has been called by Heinberg and Miller (2023), #polycrisis, occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution. The increase in environmental pollution occurs later and with a lower peak (Figure 3).
"However, it is important to note that the connections in the model and the recalibration are only valid for the rising edge, as many of the variables and equations represented in the model are not physical but socio-economic. It is to be expected that the complex socio-economic relationships will be rearranged and reconnected in the event of a collapse. World3 holds the relationships between variables constant. Therefore it is not useful to draw further conclusions from the trajectory after the tipping points. Rather, it is important to recognize that there are large uncertainties about the trajectory from then on, building models for this could be a whole new field of research.
"The fact is that the recalibrated model again shows the possibility of a collapse of our current system. At the same time, the BAU scenario of the 1972 model is shown to be alarmingly consistent with the most recently collected empirical data.
"#Herrington (2021) also concluded in her data comparison that the world is far from a stabilized world scenario where the #overshoot and #collapse mode is brought to a halt. As a society, we have to admit that despite 50 years of knowledge about the dynamics of the collapse of our life support systems, we have failed to initiate a systematic change to prevent this collapse. It is becoming increasingly clear that, despite #technological advances, the change needed to put us on a different trajectory will also require a change in #BeliefSystems, #mindsets, and the way we organize our society (Irwin, 2015; Wamsler & Brink, 2018). [SW model]
"At the point of collapse, the resolution of the model also reaches the limit of further plausible statements. The regional differences in demographic and economic terms are too great to be reduced to simple, highly aggregated variables. To address this problem, a new system dynamics model has been developed on the occasion of #LtG's 50th anniversary which is called Earth for all (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). It introduces a regional resolution and a measure of social inequality and tension. There is also a greater focus on the causes and effects of the #ClimateCrisis. In #Earth4all, the authors no longer focus on scenarios with sharp declines in the main variables. Instead, the scenario Too little too late describes that the effects of the climate crisis will continue to increase and social tensions will rise, causing the well-being index to decline over time. In another scenario, #GiantLeap, it is shown that these negative developments could also be stopped. The authors then propose various policy changes to achieve this (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). "
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442
#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse #SolarPunk #SocietalChange #Degrowth #MindsetChange -
From "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the #World3 model"
by Arjuna Nebel, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski, Tim Schell
First published: 13 November 2023
4.3 Future trends
"So far, the results have mainly been considered in comparison with the empirical data for the recalibration. However, the course of the variables is also interesting in terms of future trends. Here, the model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable. Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.
"This interconnected collapse, or, as it has been called by Heinberg and Miller (2023), #polycrisis, occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution. The increase in environmental pollution occurs later and with a lower peak (Figure 3).
"However, it is important to note that the connections in the model and the recalibration are only valid for the rising edge, as many of the variables and equations represented in the model are not physical but socio-economic. It is to be expected that the complex socio-economic relationships will be rearranged and reconnected in the event of a collapse. World3 holds the relationships between variables constant. Therefore it is not useful to draw further conclusions from the trajectory after the tipping points. Rather, it is important to recognize that there are large uncertainties about the trajectory from then on, building models for this could be a whole new field of research.
"The fact is that the recalibrated model again shows the possibility of a collapse of our current system. At the same time, the BAU scenario of the 1972 model is shown to be alarmingly consistent with the most recently collected empirical data.
"#Herrington (2021) also concluded in her data comparison that the world is far from a stabilized world scenario where the #overshoot and #collapse mode is brought to a halt. As a society, we have to admit that despite 50 years of knowledge about the dynamics of the collapse of our life support systems, we have failed to initiate a systematic change to prevent this collapse. It is becoming increasingly clear that, despite #technological advances, the change needed to put us on a different trajectory will also require a change in #BeliefSystems, #mindsets, and the way we organize our society (Irwin, 2015; Wamsler & Brink, 2018). [SW model]
"At the point of collapse, the resolution of the model also reaches the limit of further plausible statements. The regional differences in demographic and economic terms are too great to be reduced to simple, highly aggregated variables. To address this problem, a new system dynamics model has been developed on the occasion of #LtG's 50th anniversary which is called Earth for all (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). It introduces a regional resolution and a measure of social inequality and tension. There is also a greater focus on the causes and effects of the #ClimateCrisis. In #Earth4all, the authors no longer focus on scenarios with sharp declines in the main variables. Instead, the scenario Too little too late describes that the effects of the climate crisis will continue to increase and social tensions will rise, causing the well-being index to decline over time. In another scenario, #GiantLeap, it is shown that these negative developments could also be stopped. The authors then propose various policy changes to achieve this (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). "
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442
#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse #SolarPunk #SocietalChange #Degrowth #MindsetChange -
From "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the #World3 model"
by Arjuna Nebel, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski, Tim Schell
First published: 13 November 2023
4.3 Future trends
"So far, the results have mainly been considered in comparison with the empirical data for the recalibration. However, the course of the variables is also interesting in terms of future trends. Here, the model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable. Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.
"This interconnected collapse, or, as it has been called by Heinberg and Miller (2023), #polycrisis, occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution. The increase in environmental pollution occurs later and with a lower peak (Figure 3).
"However, it is important to note that the connections in the model and the recalibration are only valid for the rising edge, as many of the variables and equations represented in the model are not physical but socio-economic. It is to be expected that the complex socio-economic relationships will be rearranged and reconnected in the event of a collapse. World3 holds the relationships between variables constant. Therefore it is not useful to draw further conclusions from the trajectory after the tipping points. Rather, it is important to recognize that there are large uncertainties about the trajectory from then on, building models for this could be a whole new field of research.
"The fact is that the recalibrated model again shows the possibility of a collapse of our current system. At the same time, the BAU scenario of the 1972 model is shown to be alarmingly consistent with the most recently collected empirical data.
"#Herrington (2021) also concluded in her data comparison that the world is far from a stabilized world scenario where the #overshoot and #collapse mode is brought to a halt. As a society, we have to admit that despite 50 years of knowledge about the dynamics of the collapse of our life support systems, we have failed to initiate a systematic change to prevent this collapse. It is becoming increasingly clear that, despite #technological advances, the change needed to put us on a different trajectory will also require a change in #BeliefSystems, #mindsets, and the way we organize our society (Irwin, 2015; Wamsler & Brink, 2018). [SW model]
"At the point of collapse, the resolution of the model also reaches the limit of further plausible statements. The regional differences in demographic and economic terms are too great to be reduced to simple, highly aggregated variables. To address this problem, a new system dynamics model has been developed on the occasion of #LtG's 50th anniversary which is called Earth for all (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). It introduces a regional resolution and a measure of social inequality and tension. There is also a greater focus on the causes and effects of the #ClimateCrisis. In #Earth4all, the authors no longer focus on scenarios with sharp declines in the main variables. Instead, the scenario Too little too late describes that the effects of the climate crisis will continue to increase and social tensions will rise, causing the well-being index to decline over time. In another scenario, #GiantLeap, it is shown that these negative developments could also be stopped. The authors then propose various policy changes to achieve this (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). "
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442
#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse #SolarPunk #SocietalChange #Degrowth #MindsetChange -
From "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the #World3 model"
by Arjuna Nebel, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski, Tim Schell
First published: 13 November 2023
4.3 Future trends
"So far, the results have mainly been considered in comparison with the empirical data for the recalibration. However, the course of the variables is also interesting in terms of future trends. Here, the model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable. Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.
"This interconnected collapse, or, as it has been called by Heinberg and Miller (2023), #polycrisis, occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution. The increase in environmental pollution occurs later and with a lower peak (Figure 3).
"However, it is important to note that the connections in the model and the recalibration are only valid for the rising edge, as many of the variables and equations represented in the model are not physical but socio-economic. It is to be expected that the complex socio-economic relationships will be rearranged and reconnected in the event of a collapse. World3 holds the relationships between variables constant. Therefore it is not useful to draw further conclusions from the trajectory after the tipping points. Rather, it is important to recognize that there are large uncertainties about the trajectory from then on, building models for this could be a whole new field of research.
"The fact is that the recalibrated model again shows the possibility of a collapse of our current system. At the same time, the BAU scenario of the 1972 model is shown to be alarmingly consistent with the most recently collected empirical data.
"#Herrington (2021) also concluded in her data comparison that the world is far from a stabilized world scenario where the #overshoot and #collapse mode is brought to a halt. As a society, we have to admit that despite 50 years of knowledge about the dynamics of the collapse of our life support systems, we have failed to initiate a systematic change to prevent this collapse. It is becoming increasingly clear that, despite #technological advances, the change needed to put us on a different trajectory will also require a change in #BeliefSystems, #mindsets, and the way we organize our society (Irwin, 2015; Wamsler & Brink, 2018). [SW model]
"At the point of collapse, the resolution of the model also reaches the limit of further plausible statements. The regional differences in demographic and economic terms are too great to be reduced to simple, highly aggregated variables. To address this problem, a new system dynamics model has been developed on the occasion of #LtG's 50th anniversary which is called Earth for all (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). It introduces a regional resolution and a measure of social inequality and tension. There is also a greater focus on the causes and effects of the #ClimateCrisis. In #Earth4all, the authors no longer focus on scenarios with sharp declines in the main variables. Instead, the scenario Too little too late describes that the effects of the climate crisis will continue to increase and social tensions will rise, causing the well-being index to decline over time. In another scenario, #GiantLeap, it is shown that these negative developments could also be stopped. The authors then propose various policy changes to achieve this (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). "
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442
#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse #SolarPunk #SocietalChange #Degrowth #MindsetChange -
A more pessimistic outlook, based on 2023 recalibrations... (From #Resiliency.org)
#LimitsToGrowth was right about collapse
By Andrew Curry, May 20, 2025
Excerpt: "Downhill from here
"The last chart assembles something from the data that wasn’t done in the original Limits to Growth work because the concept hadn’t been developed. But it is possible to assemble a #HumanDevelopmentIndex from the data, and reference it against the original model and the revised version. It doesn’t come out well.
(Source: Nebel et al, 2023, adapted Klement)
"On this last chart, Klement is most depressed, and I think with good reason:
" 'If [this chart] is true, it says that today is peak human civilisation, from now on we are going backward on a global level in terms of human development and quality of life, While some countries will continue to improve, other countries and the planet as a whole will start to go backward, ultimately dropping back to similar levels of human development and quality of life as in 1900 by the end of this century.'
"Tipping point
"The overall conclusion by the article’s authors is:
" '[T]he model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and #IndustrialAgriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer #sustainable. #Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.
"They also note that the cause of this turning point is resources, not ‘pollution’:
" 'This interconnected collapse… occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution.
"They also have an interesting caveat. This is that the way the #World3 model works is a through a set of connections that exist within an environment of growth. In an environment of decline, they are likely to reconfigure themselves in different ways. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a decline—just that the current lines in the model that describe it may not follow quite the same patterns.
"But one final note from me. Economists get over-excited when anyone mentions ‘#degrowth’, and fellow-travellers such as the Tony Blair Institute treat climate policy as if it is some kind of typical 1990s political discussion. The point is that we’re going to get degrowth whether we think it’s a good idea or not. The data here is, in effect, about the tipping point at the end of a 200-to-250-year exponential curve, at least in the richer parts of the world. The only question is whether we manage degrowth or just let it happen to us. This isn’t a neutral question. I know which one of these is worse."
Read more:
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2025-05-20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-collapse/#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse -
A more pessimistic outlook, based on 2023 recalibrations... (From #Resiliency.org)
#LimitsToGrowth was right about collapse
By Andrew Curry, May 20, 2025
Excerpt: "Downhill from here
"The last chart assembles something from the data that wasn’t done in the original Limits to Growth work because the concept hadn’t been developed. But it is possible to assemble a #HumanDevelopmentIndex from the data, and reference it against the original model and the revised version. It doesn’t come out well.
(Source: Nebel et al, 2023, adapted Klement)
"On this last chart, Klement is most depressed, and I think with good reason:
" 'If [this chart] is true, it says that today is peak human civilisation, from now on we are going backward on a global level in terms of human development and quality of life, While some countries will continue to improve, other countries and the planet as a whole will start to go backward, ultimately dropping back to similar levels of human development and quality of life as in 1900 by the end of this century.'
"Tipping point
"The overall conclusion by the article’s authors is:
" '[T]he model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and #IndustrialAgriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer #sustainable. #Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.
"They also note that the cause of this turning point is resources, not ‘pollution’:
" 'This interconnected collapse… occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution.
"They also have an interesting caveat. This is that the way the #World3 model works is a through a set of connections that exist within an environment of growth. In an environment of decline, they are likely to reconfigure themselves in different ways. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a decline—just that the current lines in the model that describe it may not follow quite the same patterns.
"But one final note from me. Economists get over-excited when anyone mentions ‘#degrowth’, and fellow-travellers such as the Tony Blair Institute treat climate policy as if it is some kind of typical 1990s political discussion. The point is that we’re going to get degrowth whether we think it’s a good idea or not. The data here is, in effect, about the tipping point at the end of a 200-to-250-year exponential curve, at least in the richer parts of the world. The only question is whether we manage degrowth or just let it happen to us. This isn’t a neutral question. I know which one of these is worse."
Read more:
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2025-05-20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-collapse/#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse -
A more pessimistic outlook, based on 2023 recalibrations... (From #Resiliency.org)
#LimitsToGrowth was right about collapse
By Andrew Curry, May 20, 2025
Excerpt: "Downhill from here
"The last chart assembles something from the data that wasn’t done in the original Limits to Growth work because the concept hadn’t been developed. But it is possible to assemble a #HumanDevelopmentIndex from the data, and reference it against the original model and the revised version. It doesn’t come out well.
(Source: Nebel et al, 2023, adapted Klement)
"On this last chart, Klement is most depressed, and I think with good reason:
" 'If [this chart] is true, it says that today is peak human civilisation, from now on we are going backward on a global level in terms of human development and quality of life, While some countries will continue to improve, other countries and the planet as a whole will start to go backward, ultimately dropping back to similar levels of human development and quality of life as in 1900 by the end of this century.'
"Tipping point
"The overall conclusion by the article’s authors is:
" '[T]he model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and #IndustrialAgriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer #sustainable. #Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.
"They also note that the cause of this turning point is resources, not ‘pollution’:
" 'This interconnected collapse… occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution.
"They also have an interesting caveat. This is that the way the #World3 model works is a through a set of connections that exist within an environment of growth. In an environment of decline, they are likely to reconfigure themselves in different ways. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a decline—just that the current lines in the model that describe it may not follow quite the same patterns.
"But one final note from me. Economists get over-excited when anyone mentions ‘#degrowth’, and fellow-travellers such as the Tony Blair Institute treat climate policy as if it is some kind of typical 1990s political discussion. The point is that we’re going to get degrowth whether we think it’s a good idea or not. The data here is, in effect, about the tipping point at the end of a 200-to-250-year exponential curve, at least in the richer parts of the world. The only question is whether we manage degrowth or just let it happen to us. This isn’t a neutral question. I know which one of these is worse."
Read more:
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2025-05-20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-collapse/#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse -
A more pessimistic outlook, based on 2023 recalibrations... (From #Resiliency.org)
#LimitsToGrowth was right about collapse
By Andrew Curry, May 20, 2025
Excerpt: "Downhill from here
"The last chart assembles something from the data that wasn’t done in the original Limits to Growth work because the concept hadn’t been developed. But it is possible to assemble a #HumanDevelopmentIndex from the data, and reference it against the original model and the revised version. It doesn’t come out well.
(Source: Nebel et al, 2023, adapted Klement)
"On this last chart, Klement is most depressed, and I think with good reason:
" 'If [this chart] is true, it says that today is peak human civilisation, from now on we are going backward on a global level in terms of human development and quality of life, While some countries will continue to improve, other countries and the planet as a whole will start to go backward, ultimately dropping back to similar levels of human development and quality of life as in 1900 by the end of this century.'
"Tipping point
"The overall conclusion by the article’s authors is:
" '[T]he model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and #IndustrialAgriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer #sustainable. #Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.
"They also note that the cause of this turning point is resources, not ‘pollution’:
" 'This interconnected collapse… occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution.
"They also have an interesting caveat. This is that the way the #World3 model works is a through a set of connections that exist within an environment of growth. In an environment of decline, they are likely to reconfigure themselves in different ways. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a decline—just that the current lines in the model that describe it may not follow quite the same patterns.
"But one final note from me. Economists get over-excited when anyone mentions ‘#degrowth’, and fellow-travellers such as the Tony Blair Institute treat climate policy as if it is some kind of typical 1990s political discussion. The point is that we’re going to get degrowth whether we think it’s a good idea or not. The data here is, in effect, about the tipping point at the end of a 200-to-250-year exponential curve, at least in the richer parts of the world. The only question is whether we manage degrowth or just let it happen to us. This isn’t a neutral question. I know which one of these is worse."
Read more:
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2025-05-20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-collapse/#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse -
A more pessimistic outlook, based on 2023 recalibrations... (From #Resiliency.org)
#LimitsToGrowth was right about collapse
By Andrew Curry, May 20, 2025
Excerpt: "Downhill from here
"The last chart assembles something from the data that wasn’t done in the original Limits to Growth work because the concept hadn’t been developed. But it is possible to assemble a #HumanDevelopmentIndex from the data, and reference it against the original model and the revised version. It doesn’t come out well.
(Source: Nebel et al, 2023, adapted Klement)
"On this last chart, Klement is most depressed, and I think with good reason:
" 'If [this chart] is true, it says that today is peak human civilisation, from now on we are going backward on a global level in terms of human development and quality of life, While some countries will continue to improve, other countries and the planet as a whole will start to go backward, ultimately dropping back to similar levels of human development and quality of life as in 1900 by the end of this century.'
"Tipping point
"The overall conclusion by the article’s authors is:
" '[T]he model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and #IndustrialAgriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer #sustainable. #Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.
"They also note that the cause of this turning point is resources, not ‘pollution’:
" 'This interconnected collapse… occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution.
"They also have an interesting caveat. This is that the way the #World3 model works is a through a set of connections that exist within an environment of growth. In an environment of decline, they are likely to reconfigure themselves in different ways. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a decline—just that the current lines in the model that describe it may not follow quite the same patterns.
"But one final note from me. Economists get over-excited when anyone mentions ‘#degrowth’, and fellow-travellers such as the Tony Blair Institute treat climate policy as if it is some kind of typical 1990s political discussion. The point is that we’re going to get degrowth whether we think it’s a good idea or not. The data here is, in effect, about the tipping point at the end of a 200-to-250-year exponential curve, at least in the richer parts of the world. The only question is whether we manage degrowth or just let it happen to us. This isn’t a neutral question. I know which one of these is worse."
Read more:
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2025-05-20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-collapse/#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse -
Journalist and technology writer Kaif Shaikh disagrees with #GayaHerrington, in this 2025 response. Kaif refers to #JoachimKlement, an economist, who believes that we are already on the way to a collapse, with society returning to the way it was in the 1900s (more about that in another post).
"So, where are we now, and what is the responsible takeaway?
"The 1972 framework still describes the structure of our situation. Herrington’s 2021 comparison shows that the world’s recent history has tracked World3’s growth-first pathways closely enough to warrant concern about declines later this century, potentially beginning to bite this decade. Her 2022 reflection adds two critical refinements. The divergence among futures happens after 2020, and the most livable path requires a conscious redesign of priorities toward efficiency, pollution control, and social investment rather than throughput.
"The Nebel et al. recalibration, as interpreted by Klement, indicates that even after re-estimating parameters with better data, the system still exhibits overshoot and collapse, with the trigger rooted in resource depletion. The implication is that 'more of the same, but faster' is not a strategy. It is precisely what turns today’s creativity into tomorrow’s fragility.
"If there is one message to carry forward, it is Herrington’s: the window for a deliberate trajectory change is narrow but real. The 'Stabilized World' is not a utopian fantasy layered onto a model. It emerges from the same feedback structure that produces overshoot under different goals. Change the goal, and the loops that currently amplify stress can be redirected to reinforce #resilience.
"That change looks less like a silver bullet and more like a portfolio of priorities that the model especially favors. Using fewer resources per unit of well-being, investing in pollution abatement so damages do not accumulate, and building health and education services that improve human welfare without relying on ever-rising material throughput.
"It is also important to be precise about uncertainty. The studies do not claim to know exactly when or how any particular nation will experience stress. #World3 is a global model of dynamics, not a country-by-country forecast. Nor do the authors claim that technology is useless.
"Quite the opposite. Technology can raise ceilings and delay peaks. But as co-author #DennisMeadows has often emphasized in discussions about #LimitsToGrowth over the years, higher peaks without structural change can mean sharper falls (#Overshoots).
"Herrington’s point is that 'technology plus the same goal' keeps us on the wrong curve. Technology deployed in the service of different goals, efficiency, abatement, and human development, separated from material throughput, can move us onto the SW trajectory.
"Finally, the recalibration’s note about system behavior under contraction deserves attention. If the world does tip into decline, feedbacks may rearrange themselves in ways the original model cannot fully capture. That is not a reason to dismiss the warning. It is a reason to move earlier, while our degrees of freedom are greater, and adaptation can be shaped rather than suffered. The studies summarized here do not argue that collapse is inevitable. They suggest that collapse is a real risk if we keep our current goals, and that avoiding it means choosing new ones."
Read more:
https://interestingengineering.com/culture/mit-1972-global-collapse-warning-revisitedArchived version:
https://archive.ph/mUIa2#SolarPunkSunday #SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange
-
Journalist and technology writer Kaif Shaikh disagrees with #GayaHerrington, in this 2025 response. Kaif refers to #JoachimKlement, an economist, who believes that we are already on the way to a collapse, with society returning to the way it was in the 1900s (more about that in another post).
"So, where are we now, and what is the responsible takeaway?
"The 1972 framework still describes the structure of our situation. Herrington’s 2021 comparison shows that the world’s recent history has tracked World3’s growth-first pathways closely enough to warrant concern about declines later this century, potentially beginning to bite this decade. Her 2022 reflection adds two critical refinements. The divergence among futures happens after 2020, and the most livable path requires a conscious redesign of priorities toward efficiency, pollution control, and social investment rather than throughput.
"The Nebel et al. recalibration, as interpreted by Klement, indicates that even after re-estimating parameters with better data, the system still exhibits overshoot and collapse, with the trigger rooted in resource depletion. The implication is that 'more of the same, but faster' is not a strategy. It is precisely what turns today’s creativity into tomorrow’s fragility.
"If there is one message to carry forward, it is Herrington’s: the window for a deliberate trajectory change is narrow but real. The 'Stabilized World' is not a utopian fantasy layered onto a model. It emerges from the same feedback structure that produces overshoot under different goals. Change the goal, and the loops that currently amplify stress can be redirected to reinforce #resilience.
"That change looks less like a silver bullet and more like a portfolio of priorities that the model especially favors. Using fewer resources per unit of well-being, investing in pollution abatement so damages do not accumulate, and building health and education services that improve human welfare without relying on ever-rising material throughput.
"It is also important to be precise about uncertainty. The studies do not claim to know exactly when or how any particular nation will experience stress. #World3 is a global model of dynamics, not a country-by-country forecast. Nor do the authors claim that technology is useless.
"Quite the opposite. Technology can raise ceilings and delay peaks. But as co-author #DennisMeadows has often emphasized in discussions about #LimitsToGrowth over the years, higher peaks without structural change can mean sharper falls (#Overshoots).
"Herrington’s point is that 'technology plus the same goal' keeps us on the wrong curve. Technology deployed in the service of different goals, efficiency, abatement, and human development, separated from material throughput, can move us onto the SW trajectory.
"Finally, the recalibration’s note about system behavior under contraction deserves attention. If the world does tip into decline, feedbacks may rearrange themselves in ways the original model cannot fully capture. That is not a reason to dismiss the warning. It is a reason to move earlier, while our degrees of freedom are greater, and adaptation can be shaped rather than suffered. The studies summarized here do not argue that collapse is inevitable. They suggest that collapse is a real risk if we keep our current goals, and that avoiding it means choosing new ones."
Read more:
https://interestingengineering.com/culture/mit-1972-global-collapse-warning-revisitedArchived version:
https://archive.ph/mUIa2#SolarPunkSunday #SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange
-
Journalist and technology writer Kaif Shaikh disagrees with #GayaHerrington, in this 2025 response. Kaif refers to #JoachimKlement, an economist, who believes that we are already on the way to a collapse, with society returning to the way it was in the 1900s (more about that in another post).
"So, where are we now, and what is the responsible takeaway?
"The 1972 framework still describes the structure of our situation. Herrington’s 2021 comparison shows that the world’s recent history has tracked World3’s growth-first pathways closely enough to warrant concern about declines later this century, potentially beginning to bite this decade. Her 2022 reflection adds two critical refinements. The divergence among futures happens after 2020, and the most livable path requires a conscious redesign of priorities toward efficiency, pollution control, and social investment rather than throughput.
"The Nebel et al. recalibration, as interpreted by Klement, indicates that even after re-estimating parameters with better data, the system still exhibits overshoot and collapse, with the trigger rooted in resource depletion. The implication is that 'more of the same, but faster' is not a strategy. It is precisely what turns today’s creativity into tomorrow’s fragility.
"If there is one message to carry forward, it is Herrington’s: the window for a deliberate trajectory change is narrow but real. The 'Stabilized World' is not a utopian fantasy layered onto a model. It emerges from the same feedback structure that produces overshoot under different goals. Change the goal, and the loops that currently amplify stress can be redirected to reinforce #resilience.
"That change looks less like a silver bullet and more like a portfolio of priorities that the model especially favors. Using fewer resources per unit of well-being, investing in pollution abatement so damages do not accumulate, and building health and education services that improve human welfare without relying on ever-rising material throughput.
"It is also important to be precise about uncertainty. The studies do not claim to know exactly when or how any particular nation will experience stress. #World3 is a global model of dynamics, not a country-by-country forecast. Nor do the authors claim that technology is useless.
"Quite the opposite. Technology can raise ceilings and delay peaks. But as co-author #DennisMeadows has often emphasized in discussions about #LimitsToGrowth over the years, higher peaks without structural change can mean sharper falls (#Overshoots).
"Herrington’s point is that 'technology plus the same goal' keeps us on the wrong curve. Technology deployed in the service of different goals, efficiency, abatement, and human development, separated from material throughput, can move us onto the SW trajectory.
"Finally, the recalibration’s note about system behavior under contraction deserves attention. If the world does tip into decline, feedbacks may rearrange themselves in ways the original model cannot fully capture. That is not a reason to dismiss the warning. It is a reason to move earlier, while our degrees of freedom are greater, and adaptation can be shaped rather than suffered. The studies summarized here do not argue that collapse is inevitable. They suggest that collapse is a real risk if we keep our current goals, and that avoiding it means choosing new ones."
Read more:
https://interestingengineering.com/culture/mit-1972-global-collapse-warning-revisitedArchived version:
https://archive.ph/mUIa2#SolarPunkSunday #SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange
-
Journalist and technology writer Kaif Shaikh disagrees with #GayaHerrington, in this 2025 response. Kaif refers to #JoachimKlement, an economist, who believes that we are already on the way to a collapse, with society returning to the way it was in the 1900s (more about that in another post).
"So, where are we now, and what is the responsible takeaway?
"The 1972 framework still describes the structure of our situation. Herrington’s 2021 comparison shows that the world’s recent history has tracked World3’s growth-first pathways closely enough to warrant concern about declines later this century, potentially beginning to bite this decade. Her 2022 reflection adds two critical refinements. The divergence among futures happens after 2020, and the most livable path requires a conscious redesign of priorities toward efficiency, pollution control, and social investment rather than throughput.
"The Nebel et al. recalibration, as interpreted by Klement, indicates that even after re-estimating parameters with better data, the system still exhibits overshoot and collapse, with the trigger rooted in resource depletion. The implication is that 'more of the same, but faster' is not a strategy. It is precisely what turns today’s creativity into tomorrow’s fragility.
"If there is one message to carry forward, it is Herrington’s: the window for a deliberate trajectory change is narrow but real. The 'Stabilized World' is not a utopian fantasy layered onto a model. It emerges from the same feedback structure that produces overshoot under different goals. Change the goal, and the loops that currently amplify stress can be redirected to reinforce #resilience.
"That change looks less like a silver bullet and more like a portfolio of priorities that the model especially favors. Using fewer resources per unit of well-being, investing in pollution abatement so damages do not accumulate, and building health and education services that improve human welfare without relying on ever-rising material throughput.
"It is also important to be precise about uncertainty. The studies do not claim to know exactly when or how any particular nation will experience stress. #World3 is a global model of dynamics, not a country-by-country forecast. Nor do the authors claim that technology is useless.
"Quite the opposite. Technology can raise ceilings and delay peaks. But as co-author #DennisMeadows has often emphasized in discussions about #LimitsToGrowth over the years, higher peaks without structural change can mean sharper falls (#Overshoots).
"Herrington’s point is that 'technology plus the same goal' keeps us on the wrong curve. Technology deployed in the service of different goals, efficiency, abatement, and human development, separated from material throughput, can move us onto the SW trajectory.
"Finally, the recalibration’s note about system behavior under contraction deserves attention. If the world does tip into decline, feedbacks may rearrange themselves in ways the original model cannot fully capture. That is not a reason to dismiss the warning. It is a reason to move earlier, while our degrees of freedom are greater, and adaptation can be shaped rather than suffered. The studies summarized here do not argue that collapse is inevitable. They suggest that collapse is a real risk if we keep our current goals, and that avoiding it means choosing new ones."
Read more:
https://interestingengineering.com/culture/mit-1972-global-collapse-warning-revisitedArchived version:
https://archive.ph/mUIa2#SolarPunkSunday #SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange
-
Journalist and technology writer Kaif Shaikh disagrees with #GayaHerrington, in this 2025 response. Kaif refers to #JoachimKlement, an economist, who believes that we are already on the way to a collapse, with society returning to the way it was in the 1900s (more about that in another post).
"So, where are we now, and what is the responsible takeaway?
"The 1972 framework still describes the structure of our situation. Herrington’s 2021 comparison shows that the world’s recent history has tracked World3’s growth-first pathways closely enough to warrant concern about declines later this century, potentially beginning to bite this decade. Her 2022 reflection adds two critical refinements. The divergence among futures happens after 2020, and the most livable path requires a conscious redesign of priorities toward efficiency, pollution control, and social investment rather than throughput.
"The Nebel et al. recalibration, as interpreted by Klement, indicates that even after re-estimating parameters with better data, the system still exhibits overshoot and collapse, with the trigger rooted in resource depletion. The implication is that 'more of the same, but faster' is not a strategy. It is precisely what turns today’s creativity into tomorrow’s fragility.
"If there is one message to carry forward, it is Herrington’s: the window for a deliberate trajectory change is narrow but real. The 'Stabilized World' is not a utopian fantasy layered onto a model. It emerges from the same feedback structure that produces overshoot under different goals. Change the goal, and the loops that currently amplify stress can be redirected to reinforce #resilience.
"That change looks less like a silver bullet and more like a portfolio of priorities that the model especially favors. Using fewer resources per unit of well-being, investing in pollution abatement so damages do not accumulate, and building health and education services that improve human welfare without relying on ever-rising material throughput.
"It is also important to be precise about uncertainty. The studies do not claim to know exactly when or how any particular nation will experience stress. #World3 is a global model of dynamics, not a country-by-country forecast. Nor do the authors claim that technology is useless.
"Quite the opposite. Technology can raise ceilings and delay peaks. But as co-author #DennisMeadows has often emphasized in discussions about #LimitsToGrowth over the years, higher peaks without structural change can mean sharper falls (#Overshoots).
"Herrington’s point is that 'technology plus the same goal' keeps us on the wrong curve. Technology deployed in the service of different goals, efficiency, abatement, and human development, separated from material throughput, can move us onto the SW trajectory.
"Finally, the recalibration’s note about system behavior under contraction deserves attention. If the world does tip into decline, feedbacks may rearrange themselves in ways the original model cannot fully capture. That is not a reason to dismiss the warning. It is a reason to move earlier, while our degrees of freedom are greater, and adaptation can be shaped rather than suffered. The studies summarized here do not argue that collapse is inevitable. They suggest that collapse is a real risk if we keep our current goals, and that avoiding it means choosing new ones."
Read more:
https://interestingengineering.com/culture/mit-1972-global-collapse-warning-revisitedArchived version:
https://archive.ph/mUIa2#SolarPunkSunday #SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange
-
Gaya Herrington's chart showing #HumanWelfare and the #LimitsToGrowth, beginning from 1900 to the future (2100).
The graph has 4 lines - SW (yellow), CT (blue), BAU2 (red), and BAU (dark blue). The yellow line dips down slightly, then is pretty even. All the other lines point downward, with BAU being the furthest down (indicating a very bad quality of life for humans).
"Here, I’ll just share my conclusions, illustrated by a graph of the variable people might be most concerned with: living standards (Figure 1). This graph is from my upcoming book Five Insights for Avoiding Global Collapse, soon available online under Creative Commons, which contains further research analysis and 2022 data update of my comparison.
"I found an overall close alignment of empirical data with the scenarios, for now, because they only diverge significantly after 2020. This accuracy decades into the future gives reason to take the #World3 dynamics seriously. If we do that, we unfortunately must conclude that the future holds risks of declines in welfare, among other things, and some of these declines are indeed steep enough to constitute a collapse. The scenario indicated with 'SW' shows no collapse and the highest living standards. However, empirical data aligned least closely to SW.
"I interpret all this as humanity having a now or never opportunity to change direction. Contrary to what my friend texted me, I did not predict the end of the world, just like #LtG didn’t at the time; I noticed #WarningSignals and voiced a call to action. Empirical data are not far from SW yet, and humankind can determine where future data points fall. How? Well, there is one key difference between SW and the other scenarios: in SW, humanity consciously lets go of growth as its goal. Under SW assumptions, society shifts priorities away from industrial output growth towards resource efficiency, #pollution abatement, and #health and #education services. We can do that in the real world too.
"Will we? Before you answer that question in your head, let’s frame it properly. Because this is not about whether we want to avoid collapse; it’s whether we want better. SW represents a redesign of society away from material consumption, around human and #ecological well-being. Yes, that would take a lot of effort. But we’d also be working on healing society, towards a future of thriving. Does that sound to you like something worth putting in work for?"
In other words, and end to #Capitalism and implementation of #Degrowth, with the goal being healthy, educated humans living on a planet that they are actively trying to clean-up!
Source:
https://www.clubofrome.org/blog-post/herrington-ltg50/#SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis
#EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide -
Gaya Herrington's chart showing #HumanWelfare and the #LimitsToGrowth, beginning from 1900 to the future (2100).
The graph has 4 lines - SW (yellow), CT (blue), BAU2 (red), and BAU (dark blue). The yellow line dips down slightly, then is pretty even. All the other lines point downward, with BAU being the furthest down (indicating a very bad quality of life for humans).
"Here, I’ll just share my conclusions, illustrated by a graph of the variable people might be most concerned with: living standards (Figure 1). This graph is from my upcoming book Five Insights for Avoiding Global Collapse, soon available online under Creative Commons, which contains further research analysis and 2022 data update of my comparison.
"I found an overall close alignment of empirical data with the scenarios, for now, because they only diverge significantly after 2020. This accuracy decades into the future gives reason to take the #World3 dynamics seriously. If we do that, we unfortunately must conclude that the future holds risks of declines in welfare, among other things, and some of these declines are indeed steep enough to constitute a collapse. The scenario indicated with 'SW' shows no collapse and the highest living standards. However, empirical data aligned least closely to SW.
"I interpret all this as humanity having a now or never opportunity to change direction. Contrary to what my friend texted me, I did not predict the end of the world, just like #LtG didn’t at the time; I noticed #WarningSignals and voiced a call to action. Empirical data are not far from SW yet, and humankind can determine where future data points fall. How? Well, there is one key difference between SW and the other scenarios: in SW, humanity consciously lets go of growth as its goal. Under SW assumptions, society shifts priorities away from industrial output growth towards resource efficiency, #pollution abatement, and #health and #education services. We can do that in the real world too.
"Will we? Before you answer that question in your head, let’s frame it properly. Because this is not about whether we want to avoid collapse; it’s whether we want better. SW represents a redesign of society away from material consumption, around human and #ecological well-being. Yes, that would take a lot of effort. But we’d also be working on healing society, towards a future of thriving. Does that sound to you like something worth putting in work for?"
In other words, and end to #Capitalism and implementation of #Degrowth, with the goal being healthy, educated humans living on a planet that they are actively trying to clean-up!
Source:
https://www.clubofrome.org/blog-post/herrington-ltg50/#SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis
#EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide -
Gaya Herrington's chart showing #HumanWelfare and the #LimitsToGrowth, beginning from 1900 to the future (2100).
The graph has 4 lines - SW (yellow), CT (blue), BAU2 (red), and BAU (dark blue). The yellow line dips down slightly, then is pretty even. All the other lines point downward, with BAU being the furthest down (indicating a very bad quality of life for humans).
"Here, I’ll just share my conclusions, illustrated by a graph of the variable people might be most concerned with: living standards (Figure 1). This graph is from my upcoming book Five Insights for Avoiding Global Collapse, soon available online under Creative Commons, which contains further research analysis and 2022 data update of my comparison.
"I found an overall close alignment of empirical data with the scenarios, for now, because they only diverge significantly after 2020. This accuracy decades into the future gives reason to take the #World3 dynamics seriously. If we do that, we unfortunately must conclude that the future holds risks of declines in welfare, among other things, and some of these declines are indeed steep enough to constitute a collapse. The scenario indicated with 'SW' shows no collapse and the highest living standards. However, empirical data aligned least closely to SW.
"I interpret all this as humanity having a now or never opportunity to change direction. Contrary to what my friend texted me, I did not predict the end of the world, just like #LtG didn’t at the time; I noticed #WarningSignals and voiced a call to action. Empirical data are not far from SW yet, and humankind can determine where future data points fall. How? Well, there is one key difference between SW and the other scenarios: in SW, humanity consciously lets go of growth as its goal. Under SW assumptions, society shifts priorities away from industrial output growth towards resource efficiency, #pollution abatement, and #health and #education services. We can do that in the real world too.
"Will we? Before you answer that question in your head, let’s frame it properly. Because this is not about whether we want to avoid collapse; it’s whether we want better. SW represents a redesign of society away from material consumption, around human and #ecological well-being. Yes, that would take a lot of effort. But we’d also be working on healing society, towards a future of thriving. Does that sound to you like something worth putting in work for?"
In other words, and end to #Capitalism and implementation of #Degrowth, with the goal being healthy, educated humans living on a planet that they are actively trying to clean-up!
Source:
https://www.clubofrome.org/blog-post/herrington-ltg50/#SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis
#EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide -
Gaya Herrington's chart showing #HumanWelfare and the #LimitsToGrowth, beginning from 1900 to the future (2100).
The graph has 4 lines - SW (yellow), CT (blue), BAU2 (red), and BAU (dark blue). The yellow line dips down slightly, then is pretty even. All the other lines point downward, with BAU being the furthest down (indicating a very bad quality of life for humans).
"Here, I’ll just share my conclusions, illustrated by a graph of the variable people might be most concerned with: living standards (Figure 1). This graph is from my upcoming book Five Insights for Avoiding Global Collapse, soon available online under Creative Commons, which contains further research analysis and 2022 data update of my comparison.
"I found an overall close alignment of empirical data with the scenarios, for now, because they only diverge significantly after 2020. This accuracy decades into the future gives reason to take the #World3 dynamics seriously. If we do that, we unfortunately must conclude that the future holds risks of declines in welfare, among other things, and some of these declines are indeed steep enough to constitute a collapse. The scenario indicated with 'SW' shows no collapse and the highest living standards. However, empirical data aligned least closely to SW.
"I interpret all this as humanity having a now or never opportunity to change direction. Contrary to what my friend texted me, I did not predict the end of the world, just like #LtG didn’t at the time; I noticed #WarningSignals and voiced a call to action. Empirical data are not far from SW yet, and humankind can determine where future data points fall. How? Well, there is one key difference between SW and the other scenarios: in SW, humanity consciously lets go of growth as its goal. Under SW assumptions, society shifts priorities away from industrial output growth towards resource efficiency, #pollution abatement, and #health and #education services. We can do that in the real world too.
"Will we? Before you answer that question in your head, let’s frame it properly. Because this is not about whether we want to avoid collapse; it’s whether we want better. SW represents a redesign of society away from material consumption, around human and #ecological well-being. Yes, that would take a lot of effort. But we’d also be working on healing society, towards a future of thriving. Does that sound to you like something worth putting in work for?"
In other words, and end to #Capitalism and implementation of #Degrowth, with the goal being healthy, educated humans living on a planet that they are actively trying to clean-up!
Source:
https://www.clubofrome.org/blog-post/herrington-ltg50/#SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis
#EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide -
Gaya Herrington's chart showing #HumanWelfare and the #LimitsToGrowth, beginning from 1900 to the future (2100).
The graph has 4 lines - SW (yellow), CT (blue), BAU2 (red), and BAU (dark blue). The yellow line dips down slightly, then is pretty even. All the other lines point downward, with BAU being the furthest down (indicating a very bad quality of life for humans).
"Here, I’ll just share my conclusions, illustrated by a graph of the variable people might be most concerned with: living standards (Figure 1). This graph is from my upcoming book Five Insights for Avoiding Global Collapse, soon available online under Creative Commons, which contains further research analysis and 2022 data update of my comparison.
"I found an overall close alignment of empirical data with the scenarios, for now, because they only diverge significantly after 2020. This accuracy decades into the future gives reason to take the #World3 dynamics seriously. If we do that, we unfortunately must conclude that the future holds risks of declines in welfare, among other things, and some of these declines are indeed steep enough to constitute a collapse. The scenario indicated with 'SW' shows no collapse and the highest living standards. However, empirical data aligned least closely to SW.
"I interpret all this as humanity having a now or never opportunity to change direction. Contrary to what my friend texted me, I did not predict the end of the world, just like #LtG didn’t at the time; I noticed #WarningSignals and voiced a call to action. Empirical data are not far from SW yet, and humankind can determine where future data points fall. How? Well, there is one key difference between SW and the other scenarios: in SW, humanity consciously lets go of growth as its goal. Under SW assumptions, society shifts priorities away from industrial output growth towards resource efficiency, #pollution abatement, and #health and #education services. We can do that in the real world too.
"Will we? Before you answer that question in your head, let’s frame it properly. Because this is not about whether we want to avoid collapse; it’s whether we want better. SW represents a redesign of society away from material consumption, around human and #ecological well-being. Yes, that would take a lot of effort. But we’d also be working on healing society, towards a future of thriving. Does that sound to you like something worth putting in work for?"
In other words, and end to #Capitalism and implementation of #Degrowth, with the goal being healthy, educated humans living on a planet that they are actively trying to clean-up!
Source:
https://www.clubofrome.org/blog-post/herrington-ltg50/#SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis
#EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide -
[SP] Donkey Kong Country Returns - [World 3 - Ruins] (2010) (Platform) (Wii) [GAMEPLAY] [EN] [HD]
#retrogaming #DonkeyKongCountryReturns #Wii #World3 #2010 #jgo #johnnygameover #videogame #gameplay #games #gaming #short #shorts #play #shortplay #sp
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Last call... For a #PrivateRevolution! The #WorldParty is the only "party" we need!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaYcJQej5Uw
#JukeboxFridayNight #80sMusic
#FridayNightMusicVideos #FridayNightMusic #RevolutionDanceParty #World3 #AnotherWorldIsPossible #SolarPunkSunday #SolarPunk -
"La #croissance mondiale va s’arrêter"
Interview de Dennis #Meadows donné au Monde. (2012)
https://www.informassue.tuxfamily.org/Croissance.php#interview_meadows
Les Japonais ont un #proverbe intéressant : "Si votre seul outil est un marteau, tout ressemble à un clou." Pour les #economistes le seul outil est la croissance, tout ressemble donc à un besoin de croissance.
#Informassue #Politique #Économie #Capitalisme #Capital #World3 -
Dernière alerte, 40 ans après "Les limites à la croissance". (2013)
https://www.informassue.tuxfamily.org/pages/croissance.php?art=limite_a_croissance
Le livre "The Limits to Growth" a été édité en français sous le nom "Halte à la #croissance ?", connu aussi sous le nom "Rapport #Meadows". -
#Podcast #FutureHistories S03E08 - Simon Schaupp zu Stoffwechselpolitik
#SimonSchaupp, #JanGroos, #FutureHistories, #Interview, #GesellschaftlicherStoffwechsel, #StoffwechselPolitik, #Klimawandel, #Stoffwechsel, #Natur-KulturVerhältnis, #DemokratischePlanung, #Degrowth, #Erdsystemwissenschaft, #Marx, #CO2Fußabdruck, #Kybernetik, #World3, #Ölkrise, #Arbeit, #Bauarbeiter, #Zukunft, #Gesellschaft, #Saito, #Marx
https://futurehistories.podbean.com/e/s03e08-simon-schaupp-zu-stoffwechselpolitik/
Transkript ist zu finden unter https://github.com/autonompost/podcasts-transcriptions/tree/main/podcasts/futurehistories/transcripts
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#Podcast #FutureHistories S03E08 - Simon Schaupp zu Stoffwechselpolitik
#SimonSchaupp, #JanGroos, #FutureHistories, #Interview, #GesellschaftlicherStoffwechsel, #StoffwechselPolitik, #Klimawandel, #Stoffwechsel, #Natur-KulturVerhältnis, #DemokratischePlanung, #Degrowth, #Erdsystemwissenschaft, #Marx, #CO2Fußabdruck, #Kybernetik, #World3, #Ölkrise, #Arbeit, #Bauarbeiter, #Zukunft, #Gesellschaft, #Saito, #Marx
https://futurehistories.podbean.com/e/s03e08-simon-schaupp-zu-stoffwechselpolitik/
Transkript ist zu finden unter https://github.com/autonompost/podcasts-transcriptions/tree/main/podcasts/futurehistories/transcripts
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I'm on day 6/7 of my comprehensive exam, so my brain is starting to wilt.
I was looking inside the very influential 1972 book The Limits to Growth. One of the people in the MIT research team that wrote it is named Farhad Hakimzadeh. I had the urge to look him up.
Turns out that he made it big in business afterwards, started something called Iran Heritage Foundation in the UK and then….
Got caught stealing archival material from books at the British Library
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MIT scientists predict society will collapse by 2040, based on a computer model developed in the 1970s. The World3 model simulates the interactions between population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion. The model shows that the current growth of humanity is unsustainable and that we will face a sharp decline in living standards, social unrest, and environmental disasters.
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“There's a third world, the world of objective contents of thoughts”
- o.o.b.e. , the Orb#oobe #UFOrb
#OutOfBodyExperience
#World3 #KarlPopper
#Noosphere #TailhardDeChardin
