#koutsodendris — Public Fediverse posts

Forests can't be used in NDC (nationally determined contribution).Forests are in adaptation mode, that is, death by drought, bugs, fires, until new ecosystem members have moved in long after °C is stabilized.
Trees adapt to longer growth seasons, higher temperatures, over-fertilisation by CO2. This means less water and nutrients and makes them unhealthy.

Trees only park our CO2, then they burn.

#Koutsodendris et al 2020 counted pollen at Lake Ohrid, Albania.
Look at the gap between rising °C 🟡 vs rising pollen count for temperate/mesophilus trees 🟤 🟢.

Adapting to a new climate takes time, even with seed-carriers and migration corridors: 1000yrs until new ecosystem members have moved in and adaptation to a new stable climate is accomplished.

But we don't have migration corridors. We have settlements and agricultural wastelands with pesticides everywhere.

Also, sinks start outgassing once ppm drops. So if your #NDC include negative emissions by DACS or CCS to undo a temperature #overshoot, to really remove 1t CO2 from the system, you must remove 1.5t once we're in the negative emissions phase.

Outgassing is a physical process to balance changes in atmosphere composition. But of course, when ppm drops considerably, it also changes °C and regional climate and hydrological cycles – again. So your ecosystem is going into adaptation mode all over again. Forests burn.. again.

Overshoot scenarios aren't a good idea, even if we had working technology and concepts. CO2 removal adds another stressful phase and prolongs adaptation to changing factors – for us and our human systems, and for ecosystems on land and in the ocean.

#ClimateCrisis #COP29 #NDC #CCS #DACS #DAC #afforestation #deforestation #reforestation #landsink