#overconfidence — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #overconfidence, aggregated by home.social.
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Human–AI Evaluation and Gender Transparency: Application Decisions in Competitive Hiring
https://docs.iza.org/dp18517.pdf
#AI involvement deters applicants, particularly women, across both pure algorithmic and hybrid human-in-the-loop regimes. This effect is driven by non-competitive candidates; non-competitive women apply least despite receiving the strongest objective evaluations under AI assessment. Competitive men exhibit #overconfidence -driven selection, while competitive women remain resilient and well-calibrated under AI assessment. Notably, randomizing candidate #gender disclosure does not significantly impact application behavior in any evaluation category.
#hiring #llms #algorithmaversion #LaborMarkets #jobtech #ExperimentalEcon -
Let us learn our lessons. Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events. Antiquated War Offices, weak, incompetent, or arrogant Commanders, untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant Fortune, ugly surprises, awful miscalculations — all take their seats at the Council Board on the morrow of a declaration of war. Always remember, however sure you are that you could easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think he also had a chance.
Winston Churchill (1874-1965) British statesman and author
My Early Life: A Roving Commission, ch. 18 “With Buller to the Cape” (1930)More about this quote: wist.info/churchill-winston/11…
#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #churchill #winstonchurchill #control #declarationofwar #error #events #expectations #fortune #hubris #misfortune #overconfidence #perspective #presumption #surprises #uncontrolled #unexpected #victory #war
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Let us learn our lessons. Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events. Antiquated War Offices, weak, incompetent, or arrogant Commanders, untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant Fortune, ugly surprises, awful miscalculations — all take their seats at the Council Board on the morrow of a declaration of war. Always remember, however sure you are that you could easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think he also had a chance.
Winston Churchill (1874-1965) British statesman and author
My Early Life: A Roving Commission, ch. 18 “With Buller to the Cape” (1930)More about this quote: wist.info/churchill-winston/11…
#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #churchill #winstonchurchill #control #declarationofwar #error #events #expectations #fortune #hubris #misfortune #overconfidence #perspective #presumption #surprises #uncontrolled #unexpected #victory #war
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Let us learn our lessons. Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events. Antiquated War Offices, weak, incompetent, or arrogant Commanders, untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant Fortune, ugly surprises, awful miscalculations — all take their seats at the Council Board on the morrow of a declaration of war. Always remember, however sure you are that you could easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think he also had a chance.
Winston Churchill (1874-1965) British statesman and author
My Early Life: A Roving Commission, ch. 18 “With Buller to the Cape” (1930)More about this quote: wist.info/churchill-winston/11…
#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #churchill #winstonchurchill #control #declarationofwar #error #events #expectations #fortune #hubris #misfortune #overconfidence #perspective #presumption #surprises #uncontrolled #unexpected #victory #war
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Let us learn our lessons. Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events. Antiquated War Offices, weak, incompetent, or arrogant Commanders, untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant Fortune, ugly surprises, awful miscalculations — all take their seats at the Council Board on the morrow of a declaration of war. Always remember, however sure you are that you could easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think he also had a chance.
Winston Churchill (1874-1965) British statesman and author
My Early Life: A Roving Commission, ch. 18 “With Buller to the Cape” (1930)More about this quote: wist.info/churchill-winston/11…
#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #churchill #winstonchurchill #control #declarationofwar #error #events #expectations #fortune #hubris #misfortune #overconfidence #perspective #presumption #surprises #uncontrolled #unexpected #victory #war
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Let us learn our lessons. Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events. Antiquated War Offices, weak, incompetent, or arrogant Commanders, untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant Fortune, ugly surprises, awful miscalculations — all take their seats at the Council Board on the morrow of a declaration of war. Always remember, however sure you are that you could easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think he also had a chance.
Winston Churchill (1874-1965) British statesman and author
My Early Life: A Roving Commission, ch. 18 “With Buller to the Cape” (1930)More about this quote: wist.info/churchill-winston/11…
#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #churchill #winstonchurchill #control #declarationofwar #error #events #expectations #fortune #hubris #misfortune #overconfidence #perspective #presumption #surprises #uncontrolled #unexpected #victory #war
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Can #Diamonds Save The #Planet? : Medium
#Trust, but verify: Leading in the age of #AI #Overconfidence : Misc
One hundred years of #QuantumMechanics ($) : Science
Latest #KnowledgeLinks
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How Overconfidence Cost One Bank $1.3 Billion - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9M_QK4stCJU
#Veritasium #Banking #Overconfidence #Errors #Finances -
🎉 Ah, yes, the classic tale where #AI models are the ultimate enablers of delusional self-confidence! 🤖 Clearly, #ChatGPT is the proud sponsor of every amateur philosopher's journey into the abyss of misguided wisdom 💡—because who needs facts when you have overconfident ignorance? 😂
https://bytesauna.com/post/dunning-kruger #Delusions #AmateurPhilosophy #MisguidedWisdom #Overconfidence #HackerNews #ngated -
Are we teaching students AI competence or dependence? https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/impactofsocialsciences/2025/10/17/are-we-teaching-students-ai-competence-or-dependence/
"Universities face a clear decision: do we want graduates who can merely use #AI, or citizens who can think with it?The first path—continuing current approaches—produces students who appear competent but cannot function intellectually without AI assistance. They become sophisticated content consumers rather than independent thinkers.
The second path requires courage to acknowledge current failures and commitment to genuine educational reform. It means prioritising intellectual struggle over efficient content production, critical evaluation over polished outputs, and sustainable learning over short-term performance gains."
#metacognitiveLaziness #overconfidence #education -
Kanga said to Roo, “Drink up your milk first, dear, and talk afterwards.” So Roo, who was drinking his milk, tried to say that he could do both at once … and had to be patted on the back and dried for quite a long time afterwards.
A. A. Milne (1882-1956) English poet and playwright [Alan Alexander Milne]
Winnie-the-Pooh, ch. 10 “Christopher Robin Gives a Pooh Party” (1926)More info about this quote: wist.info/milne-a-a/2842/
#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #aamilne #winniethepooh #kanga #roo #milk #drinking #eating, #mouth #overconfidence #mess
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Kanga said to Roo, “Drink up your milk first, dear, and talk afterwards.” So Roo, who was drinking his milk, tried to say that he could do both at once … and had to be patted on the back and dried for quite a long time afterwards.
A. A. Milne (1882-1956) English poet and playwright [Alan Alexander Milne]
Winnie-the-Pooh, ch. 10 “Christopher Robin Gives a Pooh Party” (1926)More info about this quote: wist.info/milne-a-a/2842/
#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #aamilne #winniethepooh #kanga #roo #milk #drinking #eating, #mouth #overconfidence #mess
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Kanga said to Roo, “Drink up your milk first, dear, and talk afterwards.” So Roo, who was drinking his milk, tried to say that he could do both at once … and had to be patted on the back and dried for quite a long time afterwards.
A. A. Milne (1882-1956) English poet and playwright [Alan Alexander Milne]
Winnie-the-Pooh, ch. 10 “Christopher Robin Gives a Pooh Party” (1926)More info about this quote: wist.info/milne-a-a/2842/
#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #aamilne #winniethepooh #kanga #roo #milk #drinking #eating, #mouth #overconfidence #mess
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Kanga said to Roo, “Drink up your milk first, dear, and talk afterwards.” So Roo, who was drinking his milk, tried to say that he could do both at once … and had to be patted on the back and dried for quite a long time afterwards.
A. A. Milne (1882-1956) English poet and playwright [Alan Alexander Milne]
Winnie-the-Pooh, ch. 10 “Christopher Robin Gives a Pooh Party” (1926)More info about this quote: wist.info/milne-a-a/2842/
#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #aamilne #winniethepooh #kanga #roo #milk #drinking #eating, #mouth #overconfidence #mess
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Kanga said to Roo, “Drink up your milk first, dear, and talk afterwards.” So Roo, who was drinking his milk, tried to say that he could do both at once … and had to be patted on the back and dried for quite a long time afterwards.
A. A. Milne (1882-1956) English poet and playwright [Alan Alexander Milne]
Winnie-the-Pooh, ch. 10 “Christopher Robin Gives a Pooh Party” (1926)More info about this quote: wist.info/milne-a-a/2842/
#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #aamilne #winniethepooh #kanga #roo #milk #drinking #eating, #mouth #overconfidence #mess
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#Conspiracy theorists don’t realize they’re on the #fringe
Belief in conspiracy theories is often attributed to some form of motivated reasoning: People want to believe a conspiracy because it reinforces their worldview, for example, or doing so meets some deep psychological need, like wanting to feel unique. However, it might also be driven by #overconfidence in their own cognitive abilities
#conspiracytheories #perceptionhttps://arstechnica.com/science/2025/07/conspiracy-theorists-think-their-views-are-mainstream/
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Here’s Why You Should Hate Your Writing
Or at least not love it… Continue reading on The Writing Cooperative »
https://writingcooperative.com/heres-why-you-should-hate-your-writing-07a3c54957b#ohsoclear #overconfidence #creativeprocess #writingadvice #writinglife
@indieauthors -
Believers in false conspiracy theories tend to be overconfident in their own intellect and perception, and to erroneously believe that most people share their conspirational beliefs.
Original paper (not open access): https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/01461672251338358
#Science #Psychology #Cognition #ConspiracyTheories #Overconfidence
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Israel seems to be wanting a war on all sides, there's a word for that; 'Surrounded'.
#DefeatistTactics #WarOnAllFronts #OverConfidence #Arrogance #Israel #IDF #Genocide #War
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“Lucky we know the forest so well, or we might get lost,” said Rabbit half an hour later, and he gave the careless laugh which you give when you know the Forest so well that you can’t get lost.
A. A. Milne (1882-1956) English poet and playwright [Alan Alexander Milne]
House at Pooh Corner, ch. 7 “Tigger Is Unbounced” (1928)Sourcing, notes: wist.info/milne-a-a/76865/
#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #aamilne #pooh #confidence #devilmaycare #doubt #facade #lost #overconfidence #pretense #uncertainty #worry #unconfident #insecure
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When young, we trust ourselves too much, and we trust others too little when old. Rashness is the error of youth, timid caution of age.
Charles Caleb "C. C." Colton (1780-1832) English cleric, writer, aphorist
Lacon: Or, Many Things in Few Words, Vol. 1, § 363 (1820)Sourcing, notes: wist.info/colton-charles-caleb…
#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #age #caution #gettingold #growingold #maturity #mistrust #overconfidence #rashness #selfconfidence #timidity #trust #youth
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How do #LLMs' #overconfidence on these medical tasks compare to humans' overconfidence on the same tasks (both lay people and relevant experts)?
Here's an #openAccess paper about the LLM side of this question: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-55628-6
Feel free to share papers that directly compare hashtag#LLM and human performance!
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Overconfidence and gender gaps in career outcomes: insights from a promotion signaling model https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2024_021&r=&r=lma
"… male #overconfidence, combined with competitive workplace incentives affects gender equality in the labor market: overconfident workers exert more effort, are more likely to be promoted, and ultimately earn higher wages across job levels despite having lower expected ability conditional on promotion. The higher effort not only increases their chances of promotion, but also contributes to human capital accumulation through learning-by-doing, leading to higher productivity
… overconfidence can be a double-edged sword: while it can lead to higher promotions and wages (serving as a “self-serving bias”), it also imposes higher effort costs and discourages peers
… policies aimed at limiting working hours could help mitigate the effects of overconfidence, potentially reducing the gender gap in career progression and #wages."
#LaborMarkets #BoundedRationality #gpg -
Our paper is published in @collabraoa! We tested the combined effect of #ConfirmationBias #AnchoringBias #OverConfidence on #diagnostic #DecisionMaking.
https://online.ucpress.edu/collabra/article/10/1/126223/203998/Anchoring-Confirmation-and-Confidence-Bias-Among
#CognitivePsychology -
The good people at scroll.in have an excerpt from my book up online. How does gender interact with confidence and overconfidence?
It's a running theme throughout the book- including in wars, finance and the pandemic. #overconfidence #beyonddoubt
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Big day today! I've written a book on overconfidence and it's out in India! Equal parts nervous and excited 😊
Out in bookstores and online. Have a read and tell me what you think!
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"To us, money is for something, it’s not a goal in itself. That means we probably won’t become billionaires."
These sentences really kicks off a great essay about among other things, the obsessive "infinite regress" in the mindset of billionaires.
"Billionaires and the Evolution of Overconfidence" - Forking Paths, Brian Klaas
https://www.forkingpaths.co/p/billionaires-and-the-evolution-of -
As Republicans flail from ‘one stupid jackass thing to another’, Harris strives to define vision
Vice-president enjoys post-convention glow but her policies are undefined as Trump searches for line of attack
Having preached to the converted, Harris is about to face a tougher crowd.
Even after six weeks in which everything went right, she enjoys only a fragile lead in opinion polls entering the final sprint.
Trump has urged his supporters to “Fight! Fight! Fight!” -- Harris told hers: “When we fight, we win!”
Now both are facing the fight of their political lives.Democrats are not only buoyed up by their new ticket of Harris and running mate Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota with dad, football coach and midwestern appeal:
❇️ after years of soaring prices, the Federal Reserve has nearly conquered inflation without triggering a recession, a feat few economists predicted.❇️ The number of people crossings into the US has fallen dramatically since Joe Biden’s asylum crackdown and stricter enforcement in Mexico, although migration can be cyclical and, as the weather cools, it is possible the numbers will begin to climb.
Despite the positive trend lines, across the four-night arc of the convention, Democrats’ most prominent voices cautioned against #overconfidence.
Michelle Obama, the former first lady, told delegates:
“No matter how good we feel tonight, or tomorrow, or the next day, this is going to be an uphill battle.”Ex-president Bill Clinton, whose wife Hillary’s bid to become the first female president was thwarted by Trump in 2016, added:
“We’ve seen more than one election slip away from us when we thought it couldn’t happen, when people got distracted by phony issues or overconfident.”Implicit in the warning words was the question hanging over the convention:
can the Harris honeymoon last?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/25/harris-trump-presidential-race?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other -
Unskilled and unaware: Misjudgments rise with overconfidence in low performers
https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/psychology/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1252520/full
#ycombinator #Overconfidence #Second_order_judgments #calibration_accuracy #unskilled_unaware_effect #self_insight #Exam_performance -
First, to preface the rest of the post, I don’t give the faintest shit about the NBA. I don’t follow basketball at all. Not even a little bit. I was a bit of a Boston Celtics fan when I was a kid. Part of that was because my Uncle worked for the Celtics. If you ask him nicely he’ll show you his NBA Championship rings from 1984 and 1986. I am 100% serious about that. I’ve held them in my hands.
Okay, now that the prelude is over…
The Boston Celtics, prior to last night, had a three games to none lead in the NBA Championship series. I am so uninterested that I don’t even know who they are playing. Dallas? I think? Maybe? (A quick visit to espn.com tells me that it is indeed the Dallas Mavericks)
Game four was on Friday, last night, so the events I am writing about happened on Thursday. I was on Threads.com (which is owned by bookfayce and therefore makes me want to vomit when I think about it) and saw a post from someone I don’t follow… because that’s how the idiotic newsfeed works… talking about how the Celtics had the series wrapped up and Dallas barely even put up a fight. The gist of the post was something about discrediting claims that the Western Conference was the dominate Conference in the NBA. Again, I don’t care.
My lack of interest in the series does not supersede my being from Boston, and while I do not care about the league or the series, I am always down for a pro-sports championship in my city. I responded to the post on threads by cautioning against overconfidence. I wrote something about remembering the Boston Bruins blowing a three games to none lead in 2010 and thinking that maybe the poster should wait until the Celtics actually won the series before boasting about which team was more dominate. You know, be cautious in your optimism. Don’t be cocky like Bruins fans were in 2010… or Red Sox fans were in 1986. Dig?
Why is this of interest? Because last night was game four. The Celtics had a chance to end the series and win the league championship (for the 18th time, thank you very much) with a sweep. How did the game end up? The Celtics got friggin’ trounced and lost by 38 points.
Thirty-eight points.
So… maybe you should wait until the Celtics actually win the series before commenting on the strengths or weaknesses of their opponent. You know… don’t jinx it.
I know the person who posted the comment on threads was not a Bostonian, because those of us who live here effin’ know better (he said while having yet another waking nightmare about a ground ball up the first base line going through Bill Buckner’s legs).
https://robertjames1971.blog/2024/06/15/over-confidence/
#basketball #bostonCeltics #donTJinxIt #jinx #NBA #nbaChampionshipSeries #nbaFinals #overConfidence #socialNetworks #Sports #threads #twitterAlternative
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David Dunning: Overcoming #Overconfidence https://www.openmindmag.org/articles/david-dunning-on-expertise
"On any particular topic, people who are not experts lack the very expertise they need in order to know just how much expertise they lack."HT Timothy Taylor https://conversableeconomist.com/2024/04/17/interview-with-david-dunning-of-dunning-kruger-fame/
#BoundedRationality -
Earn More Tomorrow: #Overconfidence, Income Expectations and Consumer #Indebtedness http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2065&r=exp
"… participants with higher income expectations initially borrow more. Overconfident participants scale back their consumption after income feedback. However, they remain in higher #debt at the end of the experiment, which has real financial consequences."
#ExperimentalEcon #BoundedRationality -
Competition, confidence & gender http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2327&r=exp
"…there is no #gender difference in competitiveness within the over- & underconfident, while a gender gap exists among the realistic
…even if both genders had the same confidence, a persistent gender gap in preference for #competition would remain in the realistic group
…challenging theories about the #overconfidence of men being the driver of…the gender gap in competition"
#ExperimentalEcon -
The Conversation: Almost half the men surveyed think they could land a passenger plane. Experts disagree #overconfidence https://theconversation.com/almost-half-the-men-surveyed-think-they-could-land-a-passenger-plane-experts-disagree-218037
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"Oh no, ugh I look so ugly."
And
"DAMN I look kinda fine... I should start a Onlyfans"
Are my only two moods lately XD
#mood #feeling #feelings #confident #confidence #overconfidence
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#NZZ:
"Sind #CEO gute #Selbstvermarkter oder #Hochstapler?Top-#Führungskräfte sind meist mit einem ausgeprägten Selbstbewusstsein gesegnet, was schnell einmal in #Grössenwahn kippen kann. Paradebeispiel ist Elon #Musk..."
https://www.nzz.ch/wirtschaft/sind-ceos-gute-selbstvermarkter-oder-hochstapler-ld.1760886
20.11.2023
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The Supreme Court Is Infected With the ‘Most Damaging’ Human Bias - It’s not the justices’ politics that are making them unpopular. It’s their overconfidence.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/08/30/supreme-court-partisanship-unpopular-00113401
#SupremeCourtBias #Overconfidence #JusticesPolitics #UnpopularJudiciary #HumanBias #DamagingInfluence #Politics #News
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#cognition #understanding #epistemology @sociology @psychology
Leonid #Rozenblit and Frank #Keil: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3062901/
Abstract:
"People feel they understand complex phenomena with far greater precision, coherence, and depth than they really do; they are subject to an illusion—an illusion of explanatory depth. The illusion is far stronger for explanatory knowledge than many other kinds of #knowledge, such as that for facts, procedures or narratives. The illusion for explanatory knowledge is most robust where the environment supports real-time #explanations with visible mechanisms. We demonstrate the illusion of depth with explanatory knowledge in Studies 1–6. Then we show differences in overconfidence about knowledge across different knowledge domains in Studies 7–10. Finally, we explore the mechanisms behind the initial #confidence and behind #overconfidence in Studies 11 and 12. Implications for the roles of intuitive theories in models of #concepts and cognition are discussed." -
I originally expected #primacy, #ConfirmationBias and #overconfidence to clearly emerge in our procedure and in our sample. I guess #replication is hard. On the other hand, one may argue that the original effects are typically shown using more artificial tasks and novice #decisionmakers. It could be that experts in more realistic tasks within their domain think more carefully and thus mostly avoid the biases (i.e. #NaturalisticDecisionMaking). (3/4)