#riskanalysis — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #riskanalysis, aggregated by home.social.
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Alright, future engineers!
**Expected Value (E[X]):** The long-run average outcome of a random variable.
Ex: For discrete X, `E[X] = Sum(x * P(x))`. Avg winnings in a game!
Pro-Tip: Key for decision-making in uncertainty & risk assessment.
#ProbStats #RiskAnalysis #STEM #StudyNotes -
Climate Warming and Ice Weakening Trigger Alpine Glacier Collapses - The Marmolada Case [Dolomites, Northern Italy]
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121279 <-- shared paper
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3027-2025 <-- shared technical article
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Marmolada_serac_collapse <-- shared Wikipedia page
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[anecdotal – in the early 1990s, I chose to spend a winter as a ski bum/guide, living in Arabba, Dolomites, Sud Tyrol; I still remember the excellent days when I got to ski on the Marmolada]
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“PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: On 3 July 2022, a portion of the Marmolada glacier, near Punta Rocca, collapsed and caused the death of 11 mountaineers. This dramatic event had a considerable impact on the media, and authorities were concerned about the risk that other collapses might occur in this and other glaciers of the Dolomites, a well-renowned mountain region of the southeastern Alps and one of the UNESCO World Heritage sites. [They] analyzed the possible causes of the collapse by developing a three-dimensional thermo-mechanical model. The analysis concluded that the collapse was caused by increased internal ice temperature and the development of a dense network of fractures, reducing the ice shear strength, with melting water that possibly contributed by increasing the basal pressure. [They] also showed that collapsing conditions can be identified with a simplified model version approximating the sliding basal surface as a plane with a slope equal to the surface slope. The developed approach can be used in hazard identification and risk analysis of mountain glaciers…”
#EngineeringGeology #RockMechanics #GlacierCollapse #RiskAssessment #italy #Dolomites #SudTyrol #glacier #melting #massmovement #risk #hazard #analysis #Marmolada #glaciercollapse #cryosphere #warning #mitigation #hazardassessment #alpine #climatechange #globalwarming #massloss #instability #model #modeling #thermomechanical #spatialanalysis #temperature #parameters #ice #shearstrength #water #hydrology #hydrography #basal #waterpressure #meltwater #fracturing #riskanalysis #mountainglaciers -
Climate Warming and Ice Weakening Trigger Alpine Glacier Collapses - The Marmolada Case [Dolomites, Northern Italy]
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121279 <-- shared paper
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3027-2025 <-- shared technical article
--
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Marmolada_serac_collapse <-- shared Wikipedia page
--
[anecdotal – in the early 1990s, I chose to spend a winter as a ski bum/guide, living in Arabba, Dolomites, Sud Tyrol; I still remember the excellent days when I got to ski on the Marmolada]
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“PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: On 3 July 2022, a portion of the Marmolada glacier, near Punta Rocca, collapsed and caused the death of 11 mountaineers. This dramatic event had a considerable impact on the media, and authorities were concerned about the risk that other collapses might occur in this and other glaciers of the Dolomites, a well-renowned mountain region of the southeastern Alps and one of the UNESCO World Heritage sites. [They] analyzed the possible causes of the collapse by developing a three-dimensional thermo-mechanical model. The analysis concluded that the collapse was caused by increased internal ice temperature and the development of a dense network of fractures, reducing the ice shear strength, with melting water that possibly contributed by increasing the basal pressure. [They] also showed that collapsing conditions can be identified with a simplified model version approximating the sliding basal surface as a plane with a slope equal to the surface slope. The developed approach can be used in hazard identification and risk analysis of mountain glaciers…”
#EngineeringGeology #RockMechanics #GlacierCollapse #RiskAssessment #italy #Dolomites #SudTyrol #glacier #melting #massmovement #risk #hazard #analysis #Marmolada #glaciercollapse #cryosphere #warning #mitigation #hazardassessment #alpine #climatechange #globalwarming #massloss #instability #model #modeling #thermomechanical #spatialanalysis #temperature #parameters #ice #shearstrength #water #hydrology #hydrography #basal #waterpressure #meltwater #fracturing #riskanalysis #mountainglaciers -
Climate Warming and Ice Weakening Trigger Alpine Glacier Collapses - The Marmolada Case [Dolomites, Northern Italy]
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121279 <-- shared paper
--
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3027-2025 <-- shared technical article
--
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Marmolada_serac_collapse <-- shared Wikipedia page
--
[anecdotal – in the early 1990s, I chose to spend a winter as a ski bum/guide, living in Arabba, Dolomites, Sud Tyrol; I still remember the excellent days when I got to ski on the Marmolada]
--
“PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: On 3 July 2022, a portion of the Marmolada glacier, near Punta Rocca, collapsed and caused the death of 11 mountaineers. This dramatic event had a considerable impact on the media, and authorities were concerned about the risk that other collapses might occur in this and other glaciers of the Dolomites, a well-renowned mountain region of the southeastern Alps and one of the UNESCO World Heritage sites. [They] analyzed the possible causes of the collapse by developing a three-dimensional thermo-mechanical model. The analysis concluded that the collapse was caused by increased internal ice temperature and the development of a dense network of fractures, reducing the ice shear strength, with melting water that possibly contributed by increasing the basal pressure. [They] also showed that collapsing conditions can be identified with a simplified model version approximating the sliding basal surface as a plane with a slope equal to the surface slope. The developed approach can be used in hazard identification and risk analysis of mountain glaciers…”
#EngineeringGeology #RockMechanics #GlacierCollapse #RiskAssessment #italy #Dolomites #SudTyrol #glacier #melting #massmovement #risk #hazard #analysis #Marmolada #glaciercollapse #cryosphere #warning #mitigation #hazardassessment #alpine #climatechange #globalwarming #massloss #instability #model #modeling #thermomechanical #spatialanalysis #temperature #parameters #ice #shearstrength #water #hydrology #hydrography #basal #waterpressure #meltwater #fracturing #riskanalysis #mountainglaciers -
Climate Warming and Ice Weakening Trigger Alpine Glacier Collapses - The Marmolada Case [Dolomites, Northern Italy]
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121279 <-- shared paper
--
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3027-2025 <-- shared technical article
--
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Marmolada_serac_collapse <-- shared Wikipedia page
--
[anecdotal – in the early 1990s, I chose to spend a winter as a ski bum/guide, living in Arabba, Dolomites, Sud Tyrol; I still remember the excellent days when I got to ski on the Marmolada]
--
“PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: On 3 July 2022, a portion of the Marmolada glacier, near Punta Rocca, collapsed and caused the death of 11 mountaineers. This dramatic event had a considerable impact on the media, and authorities were concerned about the risk that other collapses might occur in this and other glaciers of the Dolomites, a well-renowned mountain region of the southeastern Alps and one of the UNESCO World Heritage sites. [They] analyzed the possible causes of the collapse by developing a three-dimensional thermo-mechanical model. The analysis concluded that the collapse was caused by increased internal ice temperature and the development of a dense network of fractures, reducing the ice shear strength, with melting water that possibly contributed by increasing the basal pressure. [They] also showed that collapsing conditions can be identified with a simplified model version approximating the sliding basal surface as a plane with a slope equal to the surface slope. The developed approach can be used in hazard identification and risk analysis of mountain glaciers…”
#EngineeringGeology #RockMechanics #GlacierCollapse #RiskAssessment #italy #Dolomites #SudTyrol #glacier #melting #massmovement #risk #hazard #analysis #Marmolada #glaciercollapse #cryosphere #warning #mitigation #hazardassessment #alpine #climatechange #globalwarming #massloss #instability #model #modeling #thermomechanical #spatialanalysis #temperature #parameters #ice #shearstrength #water #hydrology #hydrography #basal #waterpressure #meltwater #fracturing #riskanalysis #mountainglaciers -
Climate Warming and Ice Weakening Trigger Alpine Glacier Collapses - The Marmolada Case [Dolomites, Northern Italy]
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121279 <-- shared paper
--
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3027-2025 <-- shared technical article
--
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Marmolada_serac_collapse <-- shared Wikipedia page
--
[anecdotal – in the early 1990s, I chose to spend a winter as a ski bum/guide, living in Arabba, Dolomites, Sud Tyrol; I still remember the excellent days when I got to ski on the Marmolada]
--
“PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: On 3 July 2022, a portion of the Marmolada glacier, near Punta Rocca, collapsed and caused the death of 11 mountaineers. This dramatic event had a considerable impact on the media, and authorities were concerned about the risk that other collapses might occur in this and other glaciers of the Dolomites, a well-renowned mountain region of the southeastern Alps and one of the UNESCO World Heritage sites. [They] analyzed the possible causes of the collapse by developing a three-dimensional thermo-mechanical model. The analysis concluded that the collapse was caused by increased internal ice temperature and the development of a dense network of fractures, reducing the ice shear strength, with melting water that possibly contributed by increasing the basal pressure. [They] also showed that collapsing conditions can be identified with a simplified model version approximating the sliding basal surface as a plane with a slope equal to the surface slope. The developed approach can be used in hazard identification and risk analysis of mountain glaciers…”
#EngineeringGeology #RockMechanics #GlacierCollapse #RiskAssessment #italy #Dolomites #SudTyrol #glacier #melting #massmovement #risk #hazard #analysis #Marmolada #glaciercollapse #cryosphere #warning #mitigation #hazardassessment #alpine #climatechange #globalwarming #massloss #instability #model #modeling #thermomechanical #spatialanalysis #temperature #parameters #ice #shearstrength #water #hydrology #hydrography #basal #waterpressure #meltwater #fracturing #riskanalysis #mountainglaciers -
You do what you must do, and pay for it. So in the end all things are simple.
Ellis Peters (1913-1995) English writer, translator [pseud. of Edith Mary Pargeter]
Brother Cadfael’s Penance, ch. 16 (1994)More about this quote: wist.info/peters-ellis/75756/
#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #ellispeters #cadfael #brothercadfael #consequences #cost #costbenefit #decision #decisionmaking #must #necessity #riskanalysis #simplicity
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You do what you must do, and pay for it. So in the end all things are simple.
Ellis Peters (1913-1995) English writer, translator [pseud. of Edith Mary Pargeter]
Brother Cadfael’s Penance, ch. 16 (1994)More about this quote: wist.info/peters-ellis/75756/
#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #ellispeters #cadfael #brothercadfael #consequences #cost #costbenefit #decision #decisionmaking #must #necessity #riskanalysis #simplicity
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You do what you must do, and pay for it. So in the end all things are simple.
Ellis Peters (1913-1995) English writer, translator [pseud. of Edith Mary Pargeter]
Brother Cadfael’s Penance, ch. 16 (1994)More about this quote: wist.info/peters-ellis/75756/
#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #ellispeters #cadfael #brothercadfael #consequences #cost #costbenefit #decision #decisionmaking #must #necessity #riskanalysis #simplicity
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You do what you must do, and pay for it. So in the end all things are simple.
Ellis Peters (1913-1995) English writer, translator [pseud. of Edith Mary Pargeter]
Brother Cadfael’s Penance, ch. 16 (1994)More about this quote: wist.info/peters-ellis/75756/
#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #ellispeters #cadfael #brothercadfael #consequences #cost #costbenefit #decision #decisionmaking #must #necessity #riskanalysis #simplicity
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“(...) One day, while I was at work, I started a conversation with one of the customers who eventually started telling me about a degree in mathematics she was doing. I was so intrigued by the things she said that a few days later we ended up talking about ring theory over ramen.” - Aleksandra Brodowy
➡️ https://hermathsstory.eu/aleksandra-brodowy
#Academia #Industry #Mathematics #RingTheory #AbstractAlgebra #Uncertainty #RiskAnalysis #Student #AccountManager #WomenInMaths #WomenInSTEM #HerMathsStory
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“(...) One day, while I was at work, I started a conversation with one of the customers who eventually started telling me about a degree in mathematics she was doing. I was so intrigued by the things she said that a few days later we ended up talking about ring theory over ramen.” - Aleksandra Brodowy
➡️ https://hermathsstory.eu/aleksandra-brodowy
#Academia #Industry #Mathematics #RingTheory #AbstractAlgebra #Uncertainty #RiskAnalysis #Student #AccountManager #WomenInMaths #WomenInSTEM #HerMathsStory
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“(...) One day, while I was at work, I started a conversation with one of the customers who eventually started telling me about a degree in mathematics she was doing. I was so intrigued by the things she said that a few days later we ended up talking about ring theory over ramen.” - Aleksandra Brodowy
➡️ https://hermathsstory.eu/aleksandra-brodowy
#Academia #Industry #Mathematics #RingTheory #AbstractAlgebra #Uncertainty #RiskAnalysis #Student #AccountManager #WomenInMaths #WomenInSTEM #HerMathsStory
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“(...) One day, while I was at work, I started a conversation with one of the customers who eventually started telling me about a degree in mathematics she was doing. I was so intrigued by the things she said that a few days later we ended up talking about ring theory over ramen.” - Aleksandra Brodowy
➡️ https://hermathsstory.eu/aleksandra-brodowy
#Academia #Industry #Mathematics #RingTheory #AbstractAlgebra #Uncertainty #RiskAnalysis #Student #AccountManager #WomenInMaths #WomenInSTEM #HerMathsStory
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“(...) One day, while I was at work, I started a conversation with one of the customers who eventually started telling me about a degree in mathematics she was doing. I was so intrigued by the things she said that a few days later we ended up talking about ring theory over ramen.” - Aleksandra Brodowy
➡️ https://hermathsstory.eu/aleksandra-brodowy
#Academia #Industry #Mathematics #RingTheory #AbstractAlgebra #Uncertainty #RiskAnalysis #Student #AccountManager #WomenInMaths #WomenInSTEM #HerMathsStory
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HIPAA Fines Hit $1.7 Million for Risk Analysis Failures
The consequences of neglecting HIPAA risk analysis are steep: four entities recently paid a total of $1.7 million in fines for failing to conduct accurate, timely, and thorough assessments, exposing sensitive health information of nearly 427,000 individuals to hacking and ransomware threats.
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Ein Wochenende mit strategischer Sprengkraft: Ungarn, Pakistan und der USA–Iran-Konflikt
https://dauckchristian.home.blog/2026/04/10/ein-wochenende-mit-strategischer-sprengkraft-ungarn-pakistan-und-der-usa-iran-konflikt/ #Ungarn #UngarnWahl #Europa #EU #Deutschland #Sicherheitspolitik #Geopolitik #Außenpolitik #Pakistan #Iran #USAIran #NaherOsten #NATO #Krisendiplomatie #Hungary #HungaryElection #Europe #EU #Germany #SecurityPolicy #Geopolitics #ForeignPolicy #Pakistan #Iran #USAIran #MiddleEast #NATO #CrisisDiplomacy #StrategicAnalysis #EuropeanSecurity #InternationalPolitics #RiskAnalysis -
Ein Wochenende mit strategischer Sprengkraft: Ungarn, Pakistan und der USA–Iran-Konflikt
https://dauckchristian.home.blog/2026/04/10/ein-wochenende-mit-strategischer-sprengkraft-ungarn-pakistan-und-der-usa-iran-konflikt/ #Ungarn #UngarnWahl #Europa #EU #Deutschland #Sicherheitspolitik #Geopolitik #Außenpolitik #Pakistan #Iran #USAIran #NaherOsten #NATO #Krisendiplomatie #Hungary #HungaryElection #Europe #EU #Germany #SecurityPolicy #Geopolitics #ForeignPolicy #Pakistan #Iran #USAIran #MiddleEast #NATO #CrisisDiplomacy #StrategicAnalysis #EuropeanSecurity #InternationalPolitics #RiskAnalysis -
Ein Wochenende mit strategischer Sprengkraft: Ungarn, Pakistan und der USA–Iran-Konflikt
https://dauckchristian.home.blog/2026/04/10/ein-wochenende-mit-strategischer-sprengkraft-ungarn-pakistan-und-der-usa-iran-konflikt/ #Ungarn #UngarnWahl #Europa #EU #Deutschland #Sicherheitspolitik #Geopolitik #Außenpolitik #Pakistan #Iran #USAIran #NaherOsten #NATO #Krisendiplomatie #Hungary #HungaryElection #Europe #EU #Germany #SecurityPolicy #Geopolitics #ForeignPolicy #Pakistan #Iran #USAIran #MiddleEast #NATO #CrisisDiplomacy #StrategicAnalysis #EuropeanSecurity #InternationalPolitics #RiskAnalysis -
Ein Wochenende mit strategischer Sprengkraft: Ungarn, Pakistan und der USA–Iran-Konflikt
https://dauckchristian.home.blog/2026/04/10/ein-wochenende-mit-strategischer-sprengkraft-ungarn-pakistan-und-der-usa-iran-konflikt/ #Ungarn #UngarnWahl #Europa #EU #Deutschland #Sicherheitspolitik #Geopolitik #Außenpolitik #Pakistan #Iran #USAIran #NaherOsten #NATO #Krisendiplomatie #Hungary #HungaryElection #Europe #EU #Germany #SecurityPolicy #Geopolitics #ForeignPolicy #Pakistan #Iran #USAIran #MiddleEast #NATO #CrisisDiplomacy #StrategicAnalysis #EuropeanSecurity #InternationalPolitics #RiskAnalysis -
Ein Wochenende mit strategischer Sprengkraft: Ungarn, Pakistan und der USA–Iran-Konflikt
https://dauckchristian.home.blog/2026/04/10/ein-wochenende-mit-strategischer-sprengkraft-ungarn-pakistan-und-der-usa-iran-konflikt/ #Ungarn #UngarnWahl #Europa #EU #Deutschland #Sicherheitspolitik #Geopolitik #Außenpolitik #Pakistan #Iran #USAIran #NaherOsten #NATO #Krisendiplomatie #Hungary #HungaryElection #Europe #EU #Germany #SecurityPolicy #Geopolitics #ForeignPolicy #Pakistan #Iran #USAIran #MiddleEast #NATO #CrisisDiplomacy #StrategicAnalysis #EuropeanSecurity #InternationalPolitics #RiskAnalysis -
The new handshake for analysis is a binary choice: Shape vs. Explicit.
🔷 The Shape (Free): Surface-level telemetry for those with the expertise to interpret the diagnostic from the architecture alone.
🔶 The Explicit (1 Token): Deep-stack data injection. No ambiguity. For those requiring the "Great Spear" of concurrency and definitive validation.
#SystemsArchitecture #RiskAnalysis #TechUpdate #Data
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The new handshake for analysis is a binary choice: Shape vs. Explicit.
🔷 The Shape (Free): Surface-level telemetry for those with the expertise to interpret the diagnostic from the architecture alone.
🔶 The Explicit (1 Token): Deep-stack data injection. No ambiguity. For those requiring the "Great Spear" of concurrency and definitive validation.
#SystemsArchitecture #RiskAnalysis #TechUpdate #Data
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5 things that could break the tech growth thesis:
1. AI bubble burst if ROI disappoints
2. Power grid cannot keep pace (most likely)
3. US-China chip war escalation
4. Regulatory backlash against AI/data
5. Sustained high interest ratesI assessed probability for each. Number 2 is already happening in Northern Virginia, Dublin, and Singapore.
Full counter-argument analysis:
https://resistancezero.com/geopolitics-2.html#AIBubble #TechInvestment #Geopolitics #SemiconductorWar #EnergyConstraints #RiskAnalysis
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5 things that could break the tech growth thesis:
1. AI bubble burst if ROI disappoints
2. Power grid cannot keep pace (most likely)
3. US-China chip war escalation
4. Regulatory backlash against AI/data
5. Sustained high interest ratesI assessed probability for each. Number 2 is already happening in Northern Virginia, Dublin, and Singapore.
Full counter-argument analysis:
https://resistancezero.com/geopolitics-2.html#AIBubble #TechInvestment #Geopolitics #SemiconductorWar #EnergyConstraints #RiskAnalysis
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5 things that could break the tech growth thesis:
1. AI bubble burst if ROI disappoints
2. Power grid cannot keep pace (most likely)
3. US-China chip war escalation
4. Regulatory backlash against AI/data
5. Sustained high interest ratesI assessed probability for each. Number 2 is already happening in Northern Virginia, Dublin, and Singapore.
Full counter-argument analysis:
https://resistancezero.com/geopolitics-2.html#AIBubble #TechInvestment #Geopolitics #SemiconductorWar #EnergyConstraints #RiskAnalysis
-
5 things that could break the tech growth thesis:
1. AI bubble burst if ROI disappoints
2. Power grid cannot keep pace (most likely)
3. US-China chip war escalation
4. Regulatory backlash against AI/data
5. Sustained high interest ratesI assessed probability for each. Number 2 is already happening in Northern Virginia, Dublin, and Singapore.
Full counter-argument analysis:
https://resistancezero.com/geopolitics-2.html#AIBubble #TechInvestment #Geopolitics #SemiconductorWar #EnergyConstraints #RiskAnalysis
-
5 things that could break the tech growth thesis:
1. AI bubble burst if ROI disappoints
2. Power grid cannot keep pace (most likely)
3. US-China chip war escalation
4. Regulatory backlash against AI/data
5. Sustained high interest ratesI assessed probability for each. Number 2 is already happening in Northern Virginia, Dublin, and Singapore.
Full counter-argument analysis:
https://resistancezero.com/geopolitics-2.html#AIBubble #TechInvestment #Geopolitics #SemiconductorWar #EnergyConstraints #RiskAnalysis
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#FYI #PaulBeckwith video lecture and literature review #satellite #collision #cascade #space #CarringtonEvent #RiskAnalysis #CRASHclock
Apocalypse bingo 16. February 2026... Who has the satellites?
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#FYI #PaulBeckwith video lecture and literature review #satellite #collision #cascade #space #CarringtonEvent #RiskAnalysis #CRASHclock
Apocalypse bingo 16. February 2026... Who has the satellites?
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#FYI #PaulBeckwith video lecture and literature review #satellite #collision #cascade #space #CarringtonEvent #RiskAnalysis #CRASHclock
Apocalypse bingo 16. February 2026... Who has the satellites?
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#FYI #PaulBeckwith video lecture and literature review #satellite #collision #cascade #space #CarringtonEvent #RiskAnalysis #CRASHclock
Apocalypse bingo 16. February 2026... Who has the satellites?
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#FYI #PaulBeckwith video lecture and literature review #satellite #collision #cascade #space #CarringtonEvent #RiskAnalysis #CRASHclock
Apocalypse bingo 16. February 2026... Who has the satellites?
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Thousands of studies describe Rayleigh–Taylor instability, and most hydrogeological models acknowledge its importance in contaminant transport.
However, in studies of the Svystunova gully mine-water storage pond, I have not seen density explicitly accounted for — despite highly mineralized waters where this factor can fundamentally change plume behaviour.
By calculating solution density within the contamination halo, I demonstrated a real risk of gravity-driven sinking of the contamination plume to the base of the aquifer. This finding adds a critical dimension to impact assessment and is now documented as a standalone section in my ongoing report.If you work with mine water, aquifers contamination, or long-term contamination modelling, this is a parameter worth revisiting.
#Hydrogeochemistry #Groundwater #MineWater #PHREEQC #RStats #QGIS #EnvironmentalRisk #Contamination #RiskAnalysis #SvystunovaGully
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Thousands of studies describe Rayleigh–Taylor instability, and most hydrogeological models acknowledge its importance in contaminant transport.
However, in studies of the Svystunova gully mine-water storage pond, I have not seen density explicitly accounted for — despite highly mineralized waters where this factor can fundamentally change plume behaviour.
By calculating solution density within the contamination halo, I demonstrated a real risk of gravity-driven sinking of the contamination plume to the base of the aquifer. This finding adds a critical dimension to impact assessment and is now documented as a standalone section in my ongoing report.If you work with mine water, aquifers contamination, or long-term contamination modelling, this is a parameter worth revisiting.
#Hydrogeochemistry #Groundwater #MineWater #PHREEQC #RStats #QGIS #EnvironmentalRisk #Contamination #RiskAnalysis #SvystunovaGully
-
Thousands of studies describe Rayleigh–Taylor instability, and most hydrogeological models acknowledge its importance in contaminant transport.
However, in studies of the Svystunova gully mine-water storage pond, I have not seen density explicitly accounted for — despite highly mineralized waters where this factor can fundamentally change plume behaviour.
By calculating solution density within the contamination halo, I demonstrated a real risk of gravity-driven sinking of the contamination plume to the base of the aquifer. This finding adds a critical dimension to impact assessment and is now documented as a standalone section in my ongoing report.If you work with mine water, aquifers contamination, or long-term contamination modelling, this is a parameter worth revisiting.
#Hydrogeochemistry #Groundwater #MineWater #PHREEQC #RStats #QGIS #EnvironmentalRisk #Contamination #RiskAnalysis #SvystunovaGully
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8/8 📉 The Verdict
The "LA Drone Plot" was the magician's left hand.
The "Fires" are the red flag.
The trick is happening at the Port of Rotterdam.
The math is probabilistic, not prophetic. But with a
P
=
0.98
P=0.98
, I am looking at the harbor, not the church ruins.
Stay safe. Watch the headlines below the fold.
#Geopolitics #MachineLearning #RiskAnalysis #Amsterdam #StaySafe -
6/🧵Concluding this #2026predictions thread with additional background. Here is a link to my 2023 long-format essay on global risks and threats identification generated for Green Econometrics. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis https://docs.google.com/document/d/1v8rIvD8kS8uQRtHEq3b1qz4JNUodRgNh/edit?usp=drivesdk&ouid=117879364199236598894&rtpof=true&sd=true
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6/🧵Concluding this #2026predictions thread with additional background. Here is a link to my 2023 long-format essay on global risks and threats identification generated for Green Econometrics. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis https://docs.google.com/document/d/1v8rIvD8kS8uQRtHEq3b1qz4JNUodRgNh/edit?usp=drivesdk&ouid=117879364199236598894&rtpof=true&sd=true
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6/🧵Concluding this #2026predictions thread with additional background. Here is a link to my 2023 long-format essay on global risks and threats identification generated for Green Econometrics. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis https://docs.google.com/document/d/1v8rIvD8kS8uQRtHEq3b1qz4JNUodRgNh/edit?usp=drivesdk&ouid=117879364199236598894&rtpof=true&sd=true
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6/🧵Concluding this #2026predictions thread with additional background. Here is a link to my 2023 long-format essay on global risks and threats identification generated for Green Econometrics. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis https://docs.google.com/document/d/1v8rIvD8kS8uQRtHEq3b1qz4JNUodRgNh/edit?usp=drivesdk&ouid=117879364199236598894&rtpof=true&sd=true
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6/🧵Concluding this #2026predictions thread with additional background. Here is a link to my 2023 long-format essay on global risks and threats identification generated for Green Econometrics. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis https://docs.google.com/document/d/1v8rIvD8kS8uQRtHEq3b1qz4JNUodRgNh/edit?usp=drivesdk&ouid=117879364199236598894&rtpof=true&sd=true
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5/🧵My #2026predictions are based on my ongoing research begun in 2022 for Green Econometrics. Here is my long-format essay on the subject of global risk and threat analysis generated in 2022. I got some things wrong of course, the stock market is at an all time high currently (probably artificially due to the AI exuberance), seeming to discount and under value the emergent and obvious headwinds. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #ThreatIntel
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1E1zs1ysahaovmgphhV_6nShZuNcIKnsgPqGM1u5oHEg/edit?usp=drivesdk
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5/🧵My #2026predictions are based on my ongoing research begun in 2022 for Green Econometrics. Here is my long-format essay on the subject of global risk and threat analysis generated in 2022. I got some things wrong of course, the stock market is at an all time high currently (probably artificially due to the AI exuberance), seeming to discount and under value the emergent and obvious headwinds. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #ThreatIntel
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1E1zs1ysahaovmgphhV_6nShZuNcIKnsgPqGM1u5oHEg/edit?usp=drivesdk
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5/🧵My #2026predictions are based on my ongoing research begun in 2022 for Green Econometrics. Here is my long-format essay on the subject of global risk and threat analysis generated in 2022. I got some things wrong of course, the stock market is at an all time high currently (probably artificially due to the AI exuberance), seeming to discount and under value the emergent and obvious headwinds. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #ThreatIntel
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1E1zs1ysahaovmgphhV_6nShZuNcIKnsgPqGM1u5oHEg/edit?usp=drivesdk
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5/🧵My #2026predictions are based on my ongoing research begun in 2022 for Green Econometrics. Here is my long-format essay on the subject of global risk and threat analysis generated in 2022. I got some things wrong of course, the stock market is at an all time high currently (probably artificially due to the AI exuberance), seeming to discount and under value the emergent and obvious headwinds. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #ThreatIntel
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1E1zs1ysahaovmgphhV_6nShZuNcIKnsgPqGM1u5oHEg/edit?usp=drivesdk
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5/🧵My #2026predictions are based on my ongoing research begun in 2022 for Green Econometrics. Here is my long-format essay on the subject of global risk and threat analysis generated in 2022. I got some things wrong of course, the stock market is at an all time high currently (probably artificially due to the AI exuberance), seeming to discount and under value the emergent and obvious headwinds. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #ThreatIntel
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1E1zs1ysahaovmgphhV_6nShZuNcIKnsgPqGM1u5oHEg/edit?usp=drivesdk
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4/🧵3rd risk I’d add to my growing list of #2026predictions is around failed states, and the geopolitical, cultural and conflict disruptions they could easily cause. To wit, Iran and Pakistan are both hovering perilously close to the brink of state failure. Pakistan is nuclear-armed, and Iran is nuclear-ready (even after US and Israeli strikes). Both face seemingly unsolvable financial, energy, food and water crises currently unfolding; not to mention the threats both countries face from internal unrest driven by oppressed minorities seeking autonomy or statehood. in South America, several countries are perpetually on the brink of failure. Venezuela and Cuba come to mind. Likewise in #MENA and sub-Saharan Africa, states like Sudan and Yemen are currently collapsing. A few west African military dictatorships are also suspect. Failed states mean mass migrations, the spread of disease, the collapse of infrastructure and agriculture - resulting in regional disruptions and global risk. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis
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4/🧵3rd risk I’d add to my growing list of #2026predictions is around failed states, and the geopolitical, cultural and conflict disruptions they could easily cause. To wit, Iran and Pakistan are both hovering perilously close to the brink of state failure. Pakistan is nuclear-armed, and Iran is nuclear-ready (even after US and Israeli strikes). Both face seemingly unsolvable financial, energy, food and water crises currently unfolding; not to mention the threats both countries face from internal unrest driven by oppressed minorities seeking autonomy or statehood. in South America, several countries are perpetually on the brink of failure. Venezuela and Cuba come to mind. Likewise in #MENA and sub-Saharan Africa, states like Sudan and Yemen are currently collapsing. A few west African military dictatorships are also suspect. Failed states mean mass migrations, the spread of disease, the collapse of infrastructure and agriculture - resulting in regional disruptions and global risk. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis
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4/🧵3rd risk I’d add to my growing list of #2026predictions is around failed states, and the geopolitical, cultural and conflict disruptions they could easily cause. To wit, Iran and Pakistan are both hovering perilously close to the brink of state failure. Pakistan is nuclear-armed, and Iran is nuclear-ready (even after US and Israeli strikes). Both face seemingly unsolvable financial, energy, food and water crises currently unfolding; not to mention the threats both countries face from internal unrest driven by oppressed minorities seeking autonomy or statehood. in South America, several countries are perpetually on the brink of failure. Venezuela and Cuba come to mind. Likewise in #MENA and sub-Saharan Africa, states like Sudan and Yemen are currently collapsing. A few west African military dictatorships are also suspect. Failed states mean mass migrations, the spread of disease, the collapse of infrastructure and agriculture - resulting in regional disruptions and global risk. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis
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4/🧵3rd risk I’d add to my growing list of #2026predictions is around failed states, and the geopolitical, cultural and conflict disruptions they could easily cause. To wit, Iran and Pakistan are both hovering perilously close to the brink of state failure. Pakistan is nuclear-armed, and Iran is nuclear-ready (even after US and Israeli strikes). Both face seemingly unsolvable financial, energy, food and water crises currently unfolding; not to mention the threats both countries face from internal unrest driven by oppressed minorities seeking autonomy or statehood. in South America, several countries are perpetually on the brink of failure. Venezuela and Cuba come to mind. Likewise in #MENA and sub-Saharan Africa, states like Sudan and Yemen are currently collapsing. A few west African military dictatorships are also suspect. Failed states mean mass migrations, the spread of disease, the collapse of infrastructure and agriculture - resulting in regional disruptions and global risk. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis
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4/🧵3rd risk I’d add to my growing list of #2026predictions is around failed states, and the geopolitical, cultural and conflict disruptions they could easily cause. To wit, Iran and Pakistan are both hovering perilously close to the brink of state failure. Pakistan is nuclear-armed, and Iran is nuclear-ready (even after US and Israeli strikes). Both face seemingly unsolvable financial, energy, food and water crises currently unfolding; not to mention the threats both countries face from internal unrest driven by oppressed minorities seeking autonomy or statehood. in South America, several countries are perpetually on the brink of failure. Venezuela and Cuba come to mind. Likewise in #MENA and sub-Saharan Africa, states like Sudan and Yemen are currently collapsing. A few west African military dictatorships are also suspect. Failed states mean mass migrations, the spread of disease, the collapse of infrastructure and agriculture - resulting in regional disruptions and global risk. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis
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3/🧵2nd risk I see relates to a rapid acceleration of #GlobalWarming and the #ClimateCrisis - In this potential risk scenario, melting glaciers and polar ice sheets accelerate #SeaLevelRise while simultaneously creating flood then drought cycles in geographic regions that depend on glacier melt to annually replenish critical rivers and waterways. Ground water depletion (as is happening in Iran and the #MiddleEast in general right now) exacerbates the situation and prompts #WaterWars and mass migrations that strain regional borders and geopolitics. Parts of Africa, the Middle East, Asia and the American South become virtually uninhabitable due to heat-related issues. Agriculture fails and the global food supply is threatened. In another #Climate related risk scenario, the AMOC overturns - thrusting much of Europe into a mini ice-age, disrupting agriculture, industry and public health. #2026predictions #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #GeoPolitics
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3/🧵2nd risk I see relates to a rapid acceleration of #GlobalWarming and the #ClimateCrisis - In this potential risk scenario, melting glaciers and polar ice sheets accelerate #SeaLevelRise while simultaneously creating flood then drought cycles in geographic regions that depend on glacier melt to annually replenish critical rivers and waterways. Ground water depletion (as is happening in Iran and the #MiddleEast in general right now) exacerbates the situation and prompts #WaterWars and mass migrations that strain regional borders and geopolitics. Parts of Africa, the Middle East, Asia and the American South become virtually uninhabitable due to heat-related issues. Agriculture fails and the global food supply is threatened. In another #Climate related risk scenario, the AMOC overturns - thrusting much of Europe into a mini ice-age, disrupting agriculture, industry and public health. #2026predictions #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #GeoPolitics
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3/🧵2nd risk I see relates to a rapid acceleration of #GlobalWarming and the #ClimateCrisis - In this potential risk scenario, melting glaciers and polar ice sheets accelerate #SeaLevelRise while simultaneously creating flood then drought cycles in geographic regions that depend on glacier melt to annually replenish critical rivers and waterways. Ground water depletion (as is happening in Iran and the #MiddleEast in general right now) exacerbates the situation and prompts #WaterWars and mass migrations that strain regional borders and geopolitics. Parts of Africa, the Middle East, Asia and the American South become virtually uninhabitable due to heat-related issues. Agriculture fails and the global food supply is threatened. In another #Climate related risk scenario, the AMOC overturns - thrusting much of Europe into a mini ice-age, disrupting agriculture, industry and public health. #2026predictions #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #GeoPolitics
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3/🧵2nd risk I see relates to a rapid acceleration of #GlobalWarming and the #ClimateCrisis - In this potential risk scenario, melting glaciers and polar ice sheets accelerate #SeaLevelRise while simultaneously creating flood then drought cycles in geographic regions that depend on glacier melt to annually replenish critical rivers and waterways. Ground water depletion (as is happening in Iran and the #MiddleEast in general right now) exacerbates the situation and prompts #WaterWars and mass migrations that strain regional borders and geopolitics. Parts of Africa, the Middle East, Asia and the American South become virtually uninhabitable due to heat-related issues. Agriculture fails and the global food supply is threatened. In another #Climate related risk scenario, the AMOC overturns - thrusting much of Europe into a mini ice-age, disrupting agriculture, industry and public health. #2026predictions #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #GeoPolitics
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3/🧵2nd risk I see relates to a rapid acceleration of #GlobalWarming and the #ClimateCrisis - In this potential risk scenario, melting glaciers and polar ice sheets accelerate #SeaLevelRise while simultaneously creating flood then drought cycles in geographic regions that depend on glacier melt to annually replenish critical rivers and waterways. Ground water depletion (as is happening in Iran and the #MiddleEast in general right now) exacerbates the situation and prompts #WaterWars and mass migrations that strain regional borders and geopolitics. Parts of Africa, the Middle East, Asia and the American South become virtually uninhabitable due to heat-related issues. Agriculture fails and the global food supply is threatened. In another #Climate related risk scenario, the AMOC overturns - thrusting much of Europe into a mini ice-age, disrupting agriculture, industry and public health. #2026predictions #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #GeoPolitics
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2/🧵Now I’ll be presumptuous enough to add some looming *potential* risks and threats facing us in 2026 and beyond. These are my concerns…
1. China’s deflation, driven my the ongoing property collapse and construction company defaults; high youth unemployment; unsustainable personal and local government debt; declining consumer consumption, and a demographic collapse will roil the country leading to unrest. The Chinese Communist Party and chairman Xi respond by invading Taiwan to distract the population and appeal to nationalism to restore unity. This brings the USA and Japan into the what will be called the war of the South China Sea. When the Russians enter the fray on the Chinese side, the conflict becomes WWIII and the Chinese break out their multi-warhead hypersonic nukes to bring an end to the conflict. This results in a global nuclear conflagration that sweeps the planet. #2026predictions #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #War #China -
2/🧵Now I’ll be presumptuous enough to add some looming *potential* risks and threats facing us in 2026 and beyond. These are my concerns…
1. China’s deflation, driven my the ongoing property collapse and construction company defaults; high youth unemployment; unsustainable personal and local government debt; declining consumer consumption, and a demographic collapse will roil the country leading to unrest. The Chinese Communist Party and chairman Xi respond by invading Taiwan to distract the population and appeal to nationalism to restore unity. This brings the USA and Japan into the what will be called the war of the South China Sea. When the Russians enter the fray on the Chinese side, the conflict becomes WWIII and the Chinese break out their multi-warhead hypersonic nukes to bring an end to the conflict. This results in a global nuclear conflagration that sweeps the planet. #2026predictions #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #War #China
