#riskanalysis — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #riskanalysis, aggregated by home.social.
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Alright, future engineers!
**Expected Value (E[X]):** The long-run average outcome of a random variable.
Ex: For discrete X, `E[X] = Sum(x * P(x))`. Avg winnings in a game!
Pro-Tip: Key for decision-making in uncertainty & risk assessment.
#ProbStats #RiskAnalysis #STEM #StudyNotes -
Climate Warming and Ice Weakening Trigger Alpine Glacier Collapses - The Marmolada Case [Dolomites, Northern Italy]
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121279 <-- shared paper
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3027-2025 <-- shared technical article
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Marmolada_serac_collapse <-- shared Wikipedia page
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[anecdotal – in the early 1990s, I chose to spend a winter as a ski bum/guide, living in Arabba, Dolomites, Sud Tyrol; I still remember the excellent days when I got to ski on the Marmolada]
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“PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: On 3 July 2022, a portion of the Marmolada glacier, near Punta Rocca, collapsed and caused the death of 11 mountaineers. This dramatic event had a considerable impact on the media, and authorities were concerned about the risk that other collapses might occur in this and other glaciers of the Dolomites, a well-renowned mountain region of the southeastern Alps and one of the UNESCO World Heritage sites. [They] analyzed the possible causes of the collapse by developing a three-dimensional thermo-mechanical model. The analysis concluded that the collapse was caused by increased internal ice temperature and the development of a dense network of fractures, reducing the ice shear strength, with melting water that possibly contributed by increasing the basal pressure. [They] also showed that collapsing conditions can be identified with a simplified model version approximating the sliding basal surface as a plane with a slope equal to the surface slope. The developed approach can be used in hazard identification and risk analysis of mountain glaciers…”
#EngineeringGeology #RockMechanics #GlacierCollapse #RiskAssessment #italy #Dolomites #SudTyrol #glacier #melting #massmovement #risk #hazard #analysis #Marmolada #glaciercollapse #cryosphere #warning #mitigation #hazardassessment #alpine #climatechange #globalwarming #massloss #instability #model #modeling #thermomechanical #spatialanalysis #temperature #parameters #ice #shearstrength #water #hydrology #hydrography #basal #waterpressure #meltwater #fracturing #riskanalysis #mountainglaciers -
Climate Warming and Ice Weakening Trigger Alpine Glacier Collapses - The Marmolada Case [Dolomites, Northern Italy]
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121279 <-- shared paper
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3027-2025 <-- shared technical article
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Marmolada_serac_collapse <-- shared Wikipedia page
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[anecdotal – in the early 1990s, I chose to spend a winter as a ski bum/guide, living in Arabba, Dolomites, Sud Tyrol; I still remember the excellent days when I got to ski on the Marmolada]
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“PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: On 3 July 2022, a portion of the Marmolada glacier, near Punta Rocca, collapsed and caused the death of 11 mountaineers. This dramatic event had a considerable impact on the media, and authorities were concerned about the risk that other collapses might occur in this and other glaciers of the Dolomites, a well-renowned mountain region of the southeastern Alps and one of the UNESCO World Heritage sites. [They] analyzed the possible causes of the collapse by developing a three-dimensional thermo-mechanical model. The analysis concluded that the collapse was caused by increased internal ice temperature and the development of a dense network of fractures, reducing the ice shear strength, with melting water that possibly contributed by increasing the basal pressure. [They] also showed that collapsing conditions can be identified with a simplified model version approximating the sliding basal surface as a plane with a slope equal to the surface slope. The developed approach can be used in hazard identification and risk analysis of mountain glaciers…”
#EngineeringGeology #RockMechanics #GlacierCollapse #RiskAssessment #italy #Dolomites #SudTyrol #glacier #melting #massmovement #risk #hazard #analysis #Marmolada #glaciercollapse #cryosphere #warning #mitigation #hazardassessment #alpine #climatechange #globalwarming #massloss #instability #model #modeling #thermomechanical #spatialanalysis #temperature #parameters #ice #shearstrength #water #hydrology #hydrography #basal #waterpressure #meltwater #fracturing #riskanalysis #mountainglaciers -
You do what you must do, and pay for it. So in the end all things are simple.
Ellis Peters (1913-1995) English writer, translator [pseud. of Edith Mary Pargeter]
Brother Cadfael’s Penance, ch. 16 (1994)More about this quote: wist.info/peters-ellis/75756/
#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #ellispeters #cadfael #brothercadfael #consequences #cost #costbenefit #decision #decisionmaking #must #necessity #riskanalysis #simplicity
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“(...) One day, while I was at work, I started a conversation with one of the customers who eventually started telling me about a degree in mathematics she was doing. I was so intrigued by the things she said that a few days later we ended up talking about ring theory over ramen.” - Aleksandra Brodowy
➡️ https://hermathsstory.eu/aleksandra-brodowy
#Academia #Industry #Mathematics #RingTheory #AbstractAlgebra #Uncertainty #RiskAnalysis #Student #AccountManager #WomenInMaths #WomenInSTEM #HerMathsStory
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“(...) One day, while I was at work, I started a conversation with one of the customers who eventually started telling me about a degree in mathematics she was doing. I was so intrigued by the things she said that a few days later we ended up talking about ring theory over ramen.” - Aleksandra Brodowy
➡️ https://hermathsstory.eu/aleksandra-brodowy
#Academia #Industry #Mathematics #RingTheory #AbstractAlgebra #Uncertainty #RiskAnalysis #Student #AccountManager #WomenInMaths #WomenInSTEM #HerMathsStory
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HIPAA Fines Hit $1.7 Million for Risk Analysis Failures
The consequences of neglecting HIPAA risk analysis are steep: four entities recently paid a total of $1.7 million in fines for failing to conduct accurate, timely, and thorough assessments, exposing sensitive health information of nearly 427,000 individuals to hacking and ransomware threats.
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Ein Wochenende mit strategischer Sprengkraft: Ungarn, Pakistan und der USA–Iran-Konflikt
https://dauckchristian.home.blog/2026/04/10/ein-wochenende-mit-strategischer-sprengkraft-ungarn-pakistan-und-der-usa-iran-konflikt/ #Ungarn #UngarnWahl #Europa #EU #Deutschland #Sicherheitspolitik #Geopolitik #Außenpolitik #Pakistan #Iran #USAIran #NaherOsten #NATO #Krisendiplomatie #Hungary #HungaryElection #Europe #EU #Germany #SecurityPolicy #Geopolitics #ForeignPolicy #Pakistan #Iran #USAIran #MiddleEast #NATO #CrisisDiplomacy #StrategicAnalysis #EuropeanSecurity #InternationalPolitics #RiskAnalysis -
Ein Wochenende mit strategischer Sprengkraft: Ungarn, Pakistan und der USA–Iran-Konflikt
https://dauckchristian.home.blog/2026/04/10/ein-wochenende-mit-strategischer-sprengkraft-ungarn-pakistan-und-der-usa-iran-konflikt/ #Ungarn #UngarnWahl #Europa #EU #Deutschland #Sicherheitspolitik #Geopolitik #Außenpolitik #Pakistan #Iran #USAIran #NaherOsten #NATO #Krisendiplomatie #Hungary #HungaryElection #Europe #EU #Germany #SecurityPolicy #Geopolitics #ForeignPolicy #Pakistan #Iran #USAIran #MiddleEast #NATO #CrisisDiplomacy #StrategicAnalysis #EuropeanSecurity #InternationalPolitics #RiskAnalysis -
The new handshake for analysis is a binary choice: Shape vs. Explicit.
🔷 The Shape (Free): Surface-level telemetry for those with the expertise to interpret the diagnostic from the architecture alone.
🔶 The Explicit (1 Token): Deep-stack data injection. No ambiguity. For those requiring the "Great Spear" of concurrency and definitive validation.
#SystemsArchitecture #RiskAnalysis #TechUpdate #Data
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The new handshake for analysis is a binary choice: Shape vs. Explicit.
🔷 The Shape (Free): Surface-level telemetry for those with the expertise to interpret the diagnostic from the architecture alone.
🔶 The Explicit (1 Token): Deep-stack data injection. No ambiguity. For those requiring the "Great Spear" of concurrency and definitive validation.
#SystemsArchitecture #RiskAnalysis #TechUpdate #Data
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5 things that could break the tech growth thesis:
1. AI bubble burst if ROI disappoints
2. Power grid cannot keep pace (most likely)
3. US-China chip war escalation
4. Regulatory backlash against AI/data
5. Sustained high interest ratesI assessed probability for each. Number 2 is already happening in Northern Virginia, Dublin, and Singapore.
Full counter-argument analysis:
https://resistancezero.com/geopolitics-2.html#AIBubble #TechInvestment #Geopolitics #SemiconductorWar #EnergyConstraints #RiskAnalysis
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5 things that could break the tech growth thesis:
1. AI bubble burst if ROI disappoints
2. Power grid cannot keep pace (most likely)
3. US-China chip war escalation
4. Regulatory backlash against AI/data
5. Sustained high interest ratesI assessed probability for each. Number 2 is already happening in Northern Virginia, Dublin, and Singapore.
Full counter-argument analysis:
https://resistancezero.com/geopolitics-2.html#AIBubble #TechInvestment #Geopolitics #SemiconductorWar #EnergyConstraints #RiskAnalysis
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#FYI #PaulBeckwith video lecture and literature review #satellite #collision #cascade #space #CarringtonEvent #RiskAnalysis #CRASHclock
Apocalypse bingo 16. February 2026... Who has the satellites?
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#FYI #PaulBeckwith video lecture and literature review #satellite #collision #cascade #space #CarringtonEvent #RiskAnalysis #CRASHclock
Apocalypse bingo 16. February 2026... Who has the satellites?
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Thousands of studies describe Rayleigh–Taylor instability, and most hydrogeological models acknowledge its importance in contaminant transport.
However, in studies of the Svystunova gully mine-water storage pond, I have not seen density explicitly accounted for — despite highly mineralized waters where this factor can fundamentally change plume behaviour.
By calculating solution density within the contamination halo, I demonstrated a real risk of gravity-driven sinking of the contamination plume to the base of the aquifer. This finding adds a critical dimension to impact assessment and is now documented as a standalone section in my ongoing report.If you work with mine water, aquifers contamination, or long-term contamination modelling, this is a parameter worth revisiting.
#Hydrogeochemistry #Groundwater #MineWater #PHREEQC #RStats #QGIS #EnvironmentalRisk #Contamination #RiskAnalysis #SvystunovaGully
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6/🧵Concluding this #2026predictions thread with additional background. Here is a link to my 2023 long-format essay on global risks and threats identification generated for Green Econometrics. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis https://docs.google.com/document/d/1v8rIvD8kS8uQRtHEq3b1qz4JNUodRgNh/edit?usp=drivesdk&ouid=117879364199236598894&rtpof=true&sd=true
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6/🧵Concluding this #2026predictions thread with additional background. Here is a link to my 2023 long-format essay on global risks and threats identification generated for Green Econometrics. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis https://docs.google.com/document/d/1v8rIvD8kS8uQRtHEq3b1qz4JNUodRgNh/edit?usp=drivesdk&ouid=117879364199236598894&rtpof=true&sd=true
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5/🧵My #2026predictions are based on my ongoing research begun in 2022 for Green Econometrics. Here is my long-format essay on the subject of global risk and threat analysis generated in 2022. I got some things wrong of course, the stock market is at an all time high currently (probably artificially due to the AI exuberance), seeming to discount and under value the emergent and obvious headwinds. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #ThreatIntel
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1E1zs1ysahaovmgphhV_6nShZuNcIKnsgPqGM1u5oHEg/edit?usp=drivesdk
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5/🧵My #2026predictions are based on my ongoing research begun in 2022 for Green Econometrics. Here is my long-format essay on the subject of global risk and threat analysis generated in 2022. I got some things wrong of course, the stock market is at an all time high currently (probably artificially due to the AI exuberance), seeming to discount and under value the emergent and obvious headwinds. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #ThreatIntel
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1E1zs1ysahaovmgphhV_6nShZuNcIKnsgPqGM1u5oHEg/edit?usp=drivesdk
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4/🧵3rd risk I’d add to my growing list of #2026predictions is around failed states, and the geopolitical, cultural and conflict disruptions they could easily cause. To wit, Iran and Pakistan are both hovering perilously close to the brink of state failure. Pakistan is nuclear-armed, and Iran is nuclear-ready (even after US and Israeli strikes). Both face seemingly unsolvable financial, energy, food and water crises currently unfolding; not to mention the threats both countries face from internal unrest driven by oppressed minorities seeking autonomy or statehood. in South America, several countries are perpetually on the brink of failure. Venezuela and Cuba come to mind. Likewise in #MENA and sub-Saharan Africa, states like Sudan and Yemen are currently collapsing. A few west African military dictatorships are also suspect. Failed states mean mass migrations, the spread of disease, the collapse of infrastructure and agriculture - resulting in regional disruptions and global risk. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis
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4/🧵3rd risk I’d add to my growing list of #2026predictions is around failed states, and the geopolitical, cultural and conflict disruptions they could easily cause. To wit, Iran and Pakistan are both hovering perilously close to the brink of state failure. Pakistan is nuclear-armed, and Iran is nuclear-ready (even after US and Israeli strikes). Both face seemingly unsolvable financial, energy, food and water crises currently unfolding; not to mention the threats both countries face from internal unrest driven by oppressed minorities seeking autonomy or statehood. in South America, several countries are perpetually on the brink of failure. Venezuela and Cuba come to mind. Likewise in #MENA and sub-Saharan Africa, states like Sudan and Yemen are currently collapsing. A few west African military dictatorships are also suspect. Failed states mean mass migrations, the spread of disease, the collapse of infrastructure and agriculture - resulting in regional disruptions and global risk. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis
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3/🧵2nd risk I see relates to a rapid acceleration of #GlobalWarming and the #ClimateCrisis - In this potential risk scenario, melting glaciers and polar ice sheets accelerate #SeaLevelRise while simultaneously creating flood then drought cycles in geographic regions that depend on glacier melt to annually replenish critical rivers and waterways. Ground water depletion (as is happening in Iran and the #MiddleEast in general right now) exacerbates the situation and prompts #WaterWars and mass migrations that strain regional borders and geopolitics. Parts of Africa, the Middle East, Asia and the American South become virtually uninhabitable due to heat-related issues. Agriculture fails and the global food supply is threatened. In another #Climate related risk scenario, the AMOC overturns - thrusting much of Europe into a mini ice-age, disrupting agriculture, industry and public health. #2026predictions #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #GeoPolitics
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3/🧵2nd risk I see relates to a rapid acceleration of #GlobalWarming and the #ClimateCrisis - In this potential risk scenario, melting glaciers and polar ice sheets accelerate #SeaLevelRise while simultaneously creating flood then drought cycles in geographic regions that depend on glacier melt to annually replenish critical rivers and waterways. Ground water depletion (as is happening in Iran and the #MiddleEast in general right now) exacerbates the situation and prompts #WaterWars and mass migrations that strain regional borders and geopolitics. Parts of Africa, the Middle East, Asia and the American South become virtually uninhabitable due to heat-related issues. Agriculture fails and the global food supply is threatened. In another #Climate related risk scenario, the AMOC overturns - thrusting much of Europe into a mini ice-age, disrupting agriculture, industry and public health. #2026predictions #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #GeoPolitics
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2/🧵Now I’ll be presumptuous enough to add some looming *potential* risks and threats facing us in 2026 and beyond. These are my concerns…
1. China’s deflation, driven my the ongoing property collapse and construction company defaults; high youth unemployment; unsustainable personal and local government debt; declining consumer consumption, and a demographic collapse will roil the country leading to unrest. The Chinese Communist Party and chairman Xi respond by invading Taiwan to distract the population and appeal to nationalism to restore unity. This brings the USA and Japan into the what will be called the war of the South China Sea. When the Russians enter the fray on the Chinese side, the conflict becomes WWIII and the Chinese break out their multi-warhead hypersonic nukes to bring an end to the conflict. This results in a global nuclear conflagration that sweeps the planet. #2026predictions #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #War #China -
2/🧵Now I’ll be presumptuous enough to add some looming *potential* risks and threats facing us in 2026 and beyond. These are my concerns…
1. China’s deflation, driven my the ongoing property collapse and construction company defaults; high youth unemployment; unsustainable personal and local government debt; declining consumer consumption, and a demographic collapse will roil the country leading to unrest. The Chinese Communist Party and chairman Xi respond by invading Taiwan to distract the population and appeal to nationalism to restore unity. This brings the USA and Japan into the what will be called the war of the South China Sea. When the Russians enter the fray on the Chinese side, the conflict becomes WWIII and the Chinese break out their multi-warhead hypersonic nukes to bring an end to the conflict. This results in a global nuclear conflagration that sweeps the planet. #2026predictions #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #War #China -
THE FRIDAY READ
15 Scenarios That Could Stun the World in 2026
Futurists, political analysts and other forecasters on the possible “Black Swan” events of the new year.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/01/02/black-swan-events-2026-00708074 #2026predictions #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #USPol #AI -
THE FRIDAY READ
15 Scenarios That Could Stun the World in 2026
Futurists, political analysts and other forecasters on the possible “Black Swan” events of the new year.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/01/02/black-swan-events-2026-00708074 #2026predictions #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #USPol #AI -
A quotation from Terry Pratchett
And Sergeant Colon once again knew a secret about bravery. It was arguably a kind of enhanced cowardice — the knowledge that while death may await you if you advance it will be a picnic compared to the certain living hell that awaits should you retreat.
Terry Pratchett (1948-2015) English author
Discworld No. 21, Jingo (1988)More about this quote: wist.info/pratchett-terry/8091…
#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #terrypratchett #discworld #alternatives #bravery #costbenefit #courage #cowardice #danger #death #informeddecision #punishment #retreat #riskanalysis #riskassessment
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Nationwide Study Reveals Escalating Flood Risk [New Zealand]
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https://niwa.co.nz/news/nationwide-study-reveals-escalating-flood-risk <-- shared technical article
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https://niwa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/8c1db2b8e37841f29a57a38675388897 <-- web map / modelled representation, Flood hazard across Aotearoa New Zealand
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https://data.niwa.co.nz/products/100-year-flood-maps <-- shared flood hazard datasets for New Zealand flood plains (by region), Earth Sciences New Zealand
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https://youtu.be/FR0sl5eP0VY?si=FPASnvUT6VSFwpGA <-- overview, 2005 New Zealand flash floods
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"New research from #EarthSciencesNewZealand reveals just how widespread flood risk is across the country with more than 750,000 New Zealanders currently living in areas exposed to one-in-100-year rainfall flooding. That number could rise to 900,000 with three degrees of warming..."
#GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #ClimateAdaptation #climatechange #weather #rainfall #precipitation #Resilience #Insurance #Sustainability #science #research #flood #flooding #model #modeling #NewZealand #risk #hazard #riskanalysis #cost #economics #damage #infrastructure #residential #insurance -
Nationwide Study Reveals Escalating Flood Risk [New Zealand]
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https://niwa.co.nz/news/nationwide-study-reveals-escalating-flood-risk <-- shared technical article
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https://niwa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/8c1db2b8e37841f29a57a38675388897 <-- web map / modelled representation, Flood hazard across Aotearoa New Zealand
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https://data.niwa.co.nz/products/100-year-flood-maps <-- shared flood hazard datasets for New Zealand flood plains (by region), Earth Sciences New Zealand
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https://youtu.be/FR0sl5eP0VY?si=FPASnvUT6VSFwpGA <-- overview, 2005 New Zealand flash floods
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"New research from #EarthSciencesNewZealand reveals just how widespread flood risk is across the country with more than 750,000 New Zealanders currently living in areas exposed to one-in-100-year rainfall flooding. That number could rise to 900,000 with three degrees of warming..."
#GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #ClimateAdaptation #climatechange #weather #rainfall #precipitation #Resilience #Insurance #Sustainability #science #research #flood #flooding #model #modeling #NewZealand #risk #hazard #riskanalysis #cost #economics #damage #infrastructure #residential #insurance -
Credit markets look increasingly dangerous
#HackerNews #CreditMarkets #DangerFinance #Economics #RiskAnalysis
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Credit markets look increasingly dangerous
#HackerNews #CreditMarkets #DangerFinance #Economics #RiskAnalysis
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Flood Hydrology Roadmap [UK]
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https://www.gov.uk/flood-and-coastal-erosion-risk-management-research-reports/flood-hydrology-roadmap <-- shared technical details
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https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/62335ac2e90e070a54e18185/FRS18196_Flood_hydrology_roadmap_-_report.pdf <-- shared roadmap as a PDF
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https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.053 <-- shared paper
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#water #hydrology #flood flooding risk hazard roadmap UK Britain cost #economics #publicsafety #publichealth #extremeweather #government #program #policy #mitigation #fluvial #floodhydrology #actionplan #England #Wales #Scotland #NorthernIreland #engineering #fluvial #pluvial #sewers #groundwater #reservoir #research #logistics #methods #operations #data #spatial #GIS #mapping #management #partnership #collaboration #regulations #interagency #riskmanagement #riskanalysis #practice #design #systems #landuse #change #climatechange -
Flood Hydrology Roadmap [UK]
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https://www.gov.uk/flood-and-coastal-erosion-risk-management-research-reports/flood-hydrology-roadmap <-- shared technical details
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https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/62335ac2e90e070a54e18185/FRS18196_Flood_hydrology_roadmap_-_report.pdf <-- shared roadmap as a PDF
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https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.053 <-- shared paper
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#water #hydrology #flood flooding risk hazard roadmap UK Britain cost #economics #publicsafety #publichealth #extremeweather #government #program #policy #mitigation #fluvial #floodhydrology #actionplan #England #Wales #Scotland #NorthernIreland #engineering #fluvial #pluvial #sewers #groundwater #reservoir #research #logistics #methods #operations #data #spatial #GIS #mapping #management #partnership #collaboration #regulations #interagency #riskmanagement #riskanalysis #practice #design #systems #landuse #change #climatechange -
National Population Exposure And Evacuation Potential In The United States To Earthquake-Generated Tsunami Threats 🌊
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https://www.linkedin.com/posts/nathanwood_usgs-fema-noaa-activity-7323887631069536256-HzEi <-- shared LinkedIn post
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105511 <-- shared paper
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#model #modeling #tsunami #exposure #evacuation #hazard #exposure #risk #national #USA #coast #coastal #earthquake #marine #wave #escape #pedestrian #estimates #statistics #mitigation #cost #publicsafety #economics #damage #warning #prediction #departuredelay #nationwide #pathdistance #GIS #mapping #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #resident #riskanalysis #geomorphology #geomorphmetry -
National Population Exposure And Evacuation Potential In The United States To Earthquake-Generated Tsunami Threats 🌊
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https://www.linkedin.com/posts/nathanwood_usgs-fema-noaa-activity-7323887631069536256-HzEi <-- shared LinkedIn post
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105511 <-- shared paper
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#model #modeling #tsunami #exposure #evacuation #hazard #exposure #risk #national #USA #coast #coastal #earthquake #marine #wave #escape #pedestrian #estimates #statistics #mitigation #cost #publicsafety #economics #damage #warning #prediction #departuredelay #nationwide #pathdistance #GIS #mapping #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #resident #riskanalysis #geomorphology #geomorphmetry -
one powerful open source online tool which can be used for investigations into what was said and posted, which had been modified, deleted or changed.
in times where half-truths can be sublime and facts can somehow be muddled into doubt, this tool is an invaluable resource that aids in the diminishing island of truth seekers.
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And yes, of course, a vigorously Lamarckian interpretation of this could suggest that the offspring of wolves raised in high-rise apartments might be especially well-suited for life in high-rise apartment buildings. Who am I to question meticulously doing one's own research?
#Lamarckism #Lamarck #wolf #wolves #highrise #AustinTX #risk #RiskAnalysis -
This evening someone shared photos with me from their friend who keeps an adult wolf in their apartment in a high-rise apartment building in Austin TX. Because this at least slightly increases the probability that Elon Musk will be killed by a wolf, I say "Sure, what could possibly go wrong?"
#wolf #AustinTX #risk #RiskAnalysis -
A quotation from Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Know how to rank beliefs not according to their plausibility but by the harm they may cause.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (b. 1960) Lebanese-American essayist, statistician, risk analyst, aphorist
The Black Swan, Part 2, ch. 13 “Appelles the Painter, or What Do You Do If You Cannot Predict” (2007)Sourcing, notes: wist.info/taleb-nassim-nichola…
#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #blackswan #belief #conclusion #danger #harm #opinion #plausibility #potential #prediction #risk #riskanalysis
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A Predictive Model For Household Displacement Duration After Disasters
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https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17710 <-- shared paper
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https://nicolepaul.eu.pythonanywhere.com/ <-- interactive web interface
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #HouseholdPulseSurvey #risk #hazard #damage #loss #spatialanalysis #model #modeling #disaster #naturaldisaster #storm #hurricane #flood #fire #cost #economics #community #publicsafety #effects #predictivemodel #AI #machinelearning #riskanalysis #classifactiontree #socioeconomics #casestudy #mitigation #preparedness #displacement #population -
A Predictive Model For Household Displacement Duration After Disasters
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https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17710 <-- shared paper
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https://nicolepaul.eu.pythonanywhere.com/ <-- interactive web interface
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #HouseholdPulseSurvey #risk #hazard #damage #loss #spatialanalysis #model #modeling #disaster #naturaldisaster #storm #hurricane #flood #fire #cost #economics #community #publicsafety #effects #predictivemodel #AI #machinelearning #riskanalysis #classifactiontree #socioeconomics #casestudy #mitigation #preparedness #displacement #population -
#FYI #insurance #allianz #climate #business #riskanalysis
Allianz Risk Barometer 2025
1. Cyber incidents
2. Business interruption
3. Natural catastrophes
4. Changes in legislation and regulation
5. Climate change -
#FYI #insurance #allianz #climate #business #riskanalysis
Allianz Risk Barometer 2025
1. Cyber incidents
2. Business interruption
3. Natural catastrophes
4. Changes in legislation and regulation
5. Climate change -
🧐 Zac Hatfield-Dodds | Anthropic’s Responsible Scaling Policy https://podcasts.apple.com/jp/podcast/zac-hatfield-dodds-anthropics-responsible-scaling-policy/id1573395849?i=1000702153858 #Claude #riskanalysis #Podcasts 👂
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You do what you must do, and pay for it. So in the end all things are simple.
Ellis Peters (1913-1995) English writer, translator [pseud. of Edith Mary Pargeter, who also wrote under the names John Redfern, Jolyon Carr, Peter Benedict]
Brother Cadfael’s Penance, ch. 16 (1994)Sourcing, notes: wist.info/peters-ellis/75756/
#quote #quotes #quotation #consequences #costbenefit #decisionmaking #must #necessity #riskanalysis #simplicity #cost #decision
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"It is commonly stated that risk science is politically neutral. This perspective article discusses this assertion by scrutinizing the relationship between risk science and politics... Using some current risk problems as illustrating examples, including COVID-19 and climate change risk, the article argues that defending the political neutrality aim is paramount, especially with today's increasingly divisive political landscape."
#RiskAnalysis
#RiskCommunication -
Announcing - 2025 Summer Institute in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (#QMRA). Applications now open - flyer attached.
#riskanalysis #riskassessment -
Any Mastodoners at the #SocietyforRiskAnalysis meeting?
#SRA2024 #RiskAnalysis #riskassement -
Not really a #SecurityGame but nevertheless an interesting concept:
https://binary.protect.io/#BinaryRiskAnalysis takes the complexity out of #RiskAnalysis
Or rather, it acknowledges that we don't know a lot and doesn't add (fake) precision where we don't know what we are talking about.
With 10 yes-or-no question you get and high/medium/low risk score per asset
8/n
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“We will hold them accountable”: General Motors sued for selling customer driving data to third parties https://www.malwarebytes.com/blog/news/2024/08/we-will-hold-them-accountable-general-motors-sued-for-selling-customer-driving-data-to-third-parties #GeneralMotors #drivingscore #riskanalysis #drivingdata #insurance #Privacy #News
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Research Reveals That Prehistoric Seafloor Pockmarks Off The California Coast Are Maintained By Powerful Sediment Flows
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https://phys.org/news/2024-05-reveals-prehistoric-seafloor-pockmarks-california.html <-- shared technical article
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JF007374 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #remotesensing #bathymetry #seafloor #oceanfloor #geomorphometry #geomorphology #massmovement #geology #sediment #sedimentation #California #coast #coastal #infrastructure #windfarms #MBARI #USGS #Stanford #debrisflow #geophysics #SurPockmarkField #pockmarks #BigSur #gravityflows #risk #hazard #riskanalysis #AUV #AutonomousUnderwaterVehicle
