#aibubble — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #aibubble, aggregated by home.social.
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Current scuttlebutt has the #SpaceX #IPO in June, #OpenAI in September, and #Anthropic in October.
Given these, when do you expect the #AIBubble to crash?
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"Unfortunately, it’s difficult to make a crisp comparison, but the proxies that we have suggest that demand is growing much faster. For instance, both the quantity of tokens processed by Google in the last year, and by all providers according to Exponential View, have been growing by around 10×/year.
From another angle, we can look at token demand from today’s most intensive AI users: software engineers. Recent reports claim that some of Apple’s software engineers are permitted to use up to $300 in tokens per day, which works out to about 5 million output tokens per day with Claude Opus 4.7 API pricing, or 25 million output tokens per day with Kimi K2.6.16 Another point of comparison comes from Meta, whose 85,000 employees used 60 trillion tokens in one month across the organization. That figure included both input and output tokens; assuming a 25,000:1,000 input-to-output token ratio, that would be around 1 million output tokens per day and employee.
There were about 30 million software engineers worldwide as of 2025 (estimates range from 20 million to 50 million), and Stack Overflow’s 2025 survey on AI usage suggested that only around 47% of developers used AI on a daily basis, as of mid-2025. If all SWEs using AI daily were using it as intensely as Meta or Apple, they would demand somewhere between 10 and 350 trillion tokens per day in aggregate, i.e., between 200 million and 4 billion tokens per second. At the longest context sizes of 128,000:1,000, today’s Blackwell chips would struggle to serve all this potential demand for coding agents using models as large as Kimi K2.6. It also seems likely that both the number of developers using AI, and the intensity of their use will continue to grow rapidly."
https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/is-a-compute-crunch-coming
#AI #GenerativeAI #AIBubble #Compute #AIHype #DataCenters #Inference
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"Unfortunately, it’s difficult to make a crisp comparison, but the proxies that we have suggest that demand is growing much faster. For instance, both the quantity of tokens processed by Google in the last year, and by all providers according to Exponential View, have been growing by around 10×/year.
From another angle, we can look at token demand from today’s most intensive AI users: software engineers. Recent reports claim that some of Apple’s software engineers are permitted to use up to $300 in tokens per day, which works out to about 5 million output tokens per day with Claude Opus 4.7 API pricing, or 25 million output tokens per day with Kimi K2.6.16 Another point of comparison comes from Meta, whose 85,000 employees used 60 trillion tokens in one month across the organization. That figure included both input and output tokens; assuming a 25,000:1,000 input-to-output token ratio, that would be around 1 million output tokens per day and employee.
There were about 30 million software engineers worldwide as of 2025 (estimates range from 20 million to 50 million), and Stack Overflow’s 2025 survey on AI usage suggested that only around 47% of developers used AI on a daily basis, as of mid-2025. If all SWEs using AI daily were using it as intensely as Meta or Apple, they would demand somewhere between 10 and 350 trillion tokens per day in aggregate, i.e., between 200 million and 4 billion tokens per second. At the longest context sizes of 128,000:1,000, today’s Blackwell chips would struggle to serve all this potential demand for coding agents using models as large as Kimi K2.6. It also seems likely that both the number of developers using AI, and the intensity of their use will continue to grow rapidly."
https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/is-a-compute-crunch-coming
#AI #GenerativeAI #AIBubble #Compute #AIHype #DataCenters #Inference
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"Unfortunately, it’s difficult to make a crisp comparison, but the proxies that we have suggest that demand is growing much faster. For instance, both the quantity of tokens processed by Google in the last year, and by all providers according to Exponential View, have been growing by around 10×/year.
From another angle, we can look at token demand from today’s most intensive AI users: software engineers. Recent reports claim that some of Apple’s software engineers are permitted to use up to $300 in tokens per day, which works out to about 5 million output tokens per day with Claude Opus 4.7 API pricing, or 25 million output tokens per day with Kimi K2.6.16 Another point of comparison comes from Meta, whose 85,000 employees used 60 trillion tokens in one month across the organization. That figure included both input and output tokens; assuming a 25,000:1,000 input-to-output token ratio, that would be around 1 million output tokens per day and employee.
There were about 30 million software engineers worldwide as of 2025 (estimates range from 20 million to 50 million), and Stack Overflow’s 2025 survey on AI usage suggested that only around 47% of developers used AI on a daily basis, as of mid-2025. If all SWEs using AI daily were using it as intensely as Meta or Apple, they would demand somewhere between 10 and 350 trillion tokens per day in aggregate, i.e., between 200 million and 4 billion tokens per second. At the longest context sizes of 128,000:1,000, today’s Blackwell chips would struggle to serve all this potential demand for coding agents using models as large as Kimi K2.6. It also seems likely that both the number of developers using AI, and the intensity of their use will continue to grow rapidly."
https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/is-a-compute-crunch-coming
#AI #GenerativeAI #AIBubble #Compute #AIHype #DataCenters #Inference
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"Unfortunately, it’s difficult to make a crisp comparison, but the proxies that we have suggest that demand is growing much faster. For instance, both the quantity of tokens processed by Google in the last year, and by all providers according to Exponential View, have been growing by around 10×/year.
From another angle, we can look at token demand from today’s most intensive AI users: software engineers. Recent reports claim that some of Apple’s software engineers are permitted to use up to $300 in tokens per day, which works out to about 5 million output tokens per day with Claude Opus 4.7 API pricing, or 25 million output tokens per day with Kimi K2.6.16 Another point of comparison comes from Meta, whose 85,000 employees used 60 trillion tokens in one month across the organization. That figure included both input and output tokens; assuming a 25,000:1,000 input-to-output token ratio, that would be around 1 million output tokens per day and employee.
There were about 30 million software engineers worldwide as of 2025 (estimates range from 20 million to 50 million), and Stack Overflow’s 2025 survey on AI usage suggested that only around 47% of developers used AI on a daily basis, as of mid-2025. If all SWEs using AI daily were using it as intensely as Meta or Apple, they would demand somewhere between 10 and 350 trillion tokens per day in aggregate, i.e., between 200 million and 4 billion tokens per second. At the longest context sizes of 128,000:1,000, today’s Blackwell chips would struggle to serve all this potential demand for coding agents using models as large as Kimi K2.6. It also seems likely that both the number of developers using AI, and the intensity of their use will continue to grow rapidly."
https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/is-a-compute-crunch-coming
#AI #GenerativeAI #AIBubble #Compute #AIHype #DataCenters #Inference
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"Unfortunately, it’s difficult to make a crisp comparison, but the proxies that we have suggest that demand is growing much faster. For instance, both the quantity of tokens processed by Google in the last year, and by all providers according to Exponential View, have been growing by around 10×/year.
From another angle, we can look at token demand from today’s most intensive AI users: software engineers. Recent reports claim that some of Apple’s software engineers are permitted to use up to $300 in tokens per day, which works out to about 5 million output tokens per day with Claude Opus 4.7 API pricing, or 25 million output tokens per day with Kimi K2.6.16 Another point of comparison comes from Meta, whose 85,000 employees used 60 trillion tokens in one month across the organization. That figure included both input and output tokens; assuming a 25,000:1,000 input-to-output token ratio, that would be around 1 million output tokens per day and employee.
There were about 30 million software engineers worldwide as of 2025 (estimates range from 20 million to 50 million), and Stack Overflow’s 2025 survey on AI usage suggested that only around 47% of developers used AI on a daily basis, as of mid-2025. If all SWEs using AI daily were using it as intensely as Meta or Apple, they would demand somewhere between 10 and 350 trillion tokens per day in aggregate, i.e., between 200 million and 4 billion tokens per second. At the longest context sizes of 128,000:1,000, today’s Blackwell chips would struggle to serve all this potential demand for coding agents using models as large as Kimi K2.6. It also seems likely that both the number of developers using AI, and the intensity of their use will continue to grow rapidly."
https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/is-a-compute-crunch-coming
#AI #GenerativeAI #AIBubble #Compute #AIHype #DataCenters #Inference
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"The Case for California’s Billionaire Wealth Tax", today’s NYT Op-Ed from Gabriel Zucman and Emmanuel Saez: https://web.archive.org/web/20260526122143/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/05/26/opinion/wealth-tax-california-billionaire.html
The iceberg images are especially striking. 78% of Zuckerberg's, Page's, Brin's, Huang's wealth accumulation is “underwater” .
#wealthTax #CGT #taxTheRich #California #wealth #money #accumulation #inequality #inequalities #households #Zuckerberg #MarckZuckerberg #LarryPage #SergeyBrin #JensenHuang #Meta #Google #Nvidia #AIBubble #Zucman #Saez
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"The Case for California’s Billionaire Wealth Tax", today’s NYT Op-Ed from Gabriel Zucman and Emmanuel Saez: https://web.archive.org/web/20260526122143/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/05/26/opinion/wealth-tax-california-billionaire.html
The iceberg images are especially striking. 78% of Zuckerberg's, Page's, Brin's, Huang's wealth accumulation is “underwater” .
#wealthTax #CGT #taxTheRich #California #wealth #money #accumulation #inequality #inequalities #households #Zuckerberg #MarckZuckerberg #LarryPage #SergeyBrin #JensenHuang #Meta #Google #Nvidia #AIBubble #Zucman #Saez
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"The Case for California’s Billionaire Wealth Tax", today’s NYT Op-Ed from Gabriel Zucman and Emmanuel Saez: https://web.archive.org/web/20260526122143/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/05/26/opinion/wealth-tax-california-billionaire.html
The iceberg images are especially striking. 78% of Zuckerberg's, Page's, Brin's, Huang's wealth accumulation is “underwater” .
#wealthTax #CGT #taxTheRich #California #wealth #money #accumulation #inequality #inequalities #households #Zuckerberg #MarckZuckerberg #LarryPage #SergeyBrin #JensenHuang #Meta #Google #Nvidia #AIBubble #Zucman #Saez
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"The Case for California’s Billionaire Wealth Tax", today’s NYT Op-Ed from Gabriel Zucman and Emmanuel Saez: https://web.archive.org/web/20260526122143/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/05/26/opinion/wealth-tax-california-billionaire.html
The iceberg images are especially striking. 78% of Zuckerberg's, Page's, Brin's, Huang's wealth accumulation is “underwater” .
#wealthTax #CGT #taxTheRich #California #wealth #money #accumulation #inequality #inequalities #households #Zuckerberg #MarckZuckerberg #LarryPage #SergeyBrin #JensenHuang #Meta #Google #Nvidia #AIBubble #Zucman #Saez
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"The Case for California’s Billionaire Wealth Tax", today’s NYT Op-Ed from Gabriel Zucman and Emmanuel Saez: https://web.archive.org/web/20260526122143/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/05/26/opinion/wealth-tax-california-billionaire.html
The iceberg images are especially striking. 78% of Zuckerberg's, Page's, Brin's, Huang's wealth accumulation is “underwater” .
#wealthTax #CGT #taxTheRich #California #wealth #money #accumulation #inequality #inequalities #households #Zuckerberg #MarckZuckerberg #LarryPage #SergeyBrin #JensenHuang #Meta #Google #Nvidia #AIBubble #Zucman #Saez
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[edited for name typo]
Here is Prof Richard Murphy’s latest post in taxresearch dot org dot UK.
His ‘musings’ are not frivoloius and they are worth taking note of. Here, he agrees with Paul Krugman on the #AIBubble and its #DataCenterBoom with an intertesting note on #Software.“His [Paul Krugman] concern, and I think it was a reasonable one, was that there is no evidence at all that what is now happening as a result of the current AI boom will create anything of lasting value. We do not know whether the hardware being built in the form of data centres will prove sustainable. Already, 20% of all electricity in Ireland is being used to power data centres. This makes no sense, and replication on this scale appears impossible.
Likewise, when we look at the software and related IT, the potential rate of advance in technology in this sector is so great, if it lives up to its promise, that everything being created now will be of little use in only two or three years' time.”
Read more here
https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2026/05/24/should-we-live-in-fear-of-ai/##GenAI #AISlop #DataCenterEnergyConsumption #DataCenterWaterConsumption #Economics #FinancialBubble
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"New revelations about OpenAI’s finances paint a dim picture for the company, as The Information reported it generated just $5.7bn in the first quarter of 2026, with an adjusted operating margin of -122%.
This means that for every dollar of revenue the company generated, it lost $1.22.
As The Information’s Sri Muppidi noted, these operating margins were adjusted — and, presumably, didn’t conform to GAAP (or generally accepted accounting principles) standards — and excluded certain “large line items”, like stock-based compensation.
By that maths, that means that OpenAI lost $6.95 billion in the quarter, and because this is non-GAAP, it’s quite possible that losses are much higher, revenues are lower, and its margins are worse. The piece does not specify if operating margin includes or excludes training costs, nor does it break down what other exclusions there may be other than stock-based compensation.
The report also claims that OpenAI is “on track” to hit its goal of generating $30bn in revenue for 2026, although if it maintains these disastrous margins, it would end up losing $36.6bn."
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« Is #AI Profitable Yet ? Tracking the debts and profits of frontier AI companies »
Spoiler alert : only for NVidia 🤑
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« Is #AI Profitable Yet ? Tracking the debts and profits of frontier AI companies »
Spoiler alert : only for NVidia 🤑
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« Is #AI Profitable Yet ? Tracking the debts and profits of frontier AI companies »
Spoiler alert : only for NVidia 🤑
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« Is #AI Profitable Yet ? Tracking the debts and profits of frontier AI companies »
Spoiler alert : only for NVidia 🤑
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« Is #AI Profitable Yet ? Tracking the debts and profits of frontier AI companies »
Spoiler alert : only for NVidia 🤑
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Reading about the so-called loneliness epidemic, and about people who talk to LLM:s instead of each other. I'm very lucky: all of this is completely foreign to me.
I've been alone a lot in my work, sort of like a professional writer. But in my free time I'm a walking friendship hub. If my wife ran away I could probably never find as good a wife again. But I don't worry that it would take a long time for candidates to show up. I'm lucky!
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Reading about the so-called loneliness epidemic, and about people who talk to LLM:s instead of each other. I'm very lucky: all of this is completely foreign to me.
I've been alone a lot in my work, sort of like a professional writer. But in my free time I'm a walking friendship hub. If my wife ran away I could probably never find as good a wife again. But I don't worry that it would take a long time for candidates to show up. I'm lucky!
-
Reading about the so-called loneliness epidemic, and about people who talk to LLM:s instead of each other. I'm very lucky: all of this is completely foreign to me.
I've been alone a lot in my work, sort of like a professional writer. But in my free time I'm a walking friendship hub. If my wife ran away I could probably never find as good a wife again. But I don't worry that it would take a long time for candidates to show up. I'm lucky!
-
Reading about the so-called loneliness epidemic, and about people who talk to LLM:s instead of each other. I'm very lucky: all of this is completely foreign to me.
I've been alone a lot in my work, sort of like a professional writer. But in my free time I'm a walking friendship hub. If my wife ran away I could probably never find as good a wife again. But I don't worry that it would take a long time for candidates to show up. I'm lucky!
-
Reading about the so-called loneliness epidemic, and about people who talk to LLM:s instead of each other. I'm very lucky: all of this is completely foreign to me.
I've been alone a lot in my work, sort of like a professional writer. But in my free time I'm a walking friendship hub. If my wife ran away I could probably never find as good a wife again. But I don't worry that it would take a long time for candidates to show up. I'm lucky!
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Not even a quick end to Iran war can save #AI #stock #bubble now
"Te #AIbubble is only te latest fin'cial bubble since #Greenspan took over #USFed in 1987. He made it his job to prop up stressed financial markets w liquidity. It biased US #monetary #policy twds inflating asset mkts. When #Greenspanbubble popped in 2008, Bernanke intro'ed US$4tr of #QE. In 2020, when #Covid19 pandemic threatened te #Bernankebubble, Powell intro'ed US$4tr more QE, paving way for AI bubble"🤫
https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3353772/not-even-quick-end-iran-war-can-save-ai-stock-bubble-now?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article -
Not even a quick end to Iran war can save #AI #stock #bubble now
"Te #AIbubble is only te latest fin'cial bubble since #Greenspan took over #USFed in 1987. He made it his job to prop up stressed financial markets w liquidity. It biased US #monetary #policy twds inflating asset mkts. When #Greenspanbubble popped in 2008, Bernanke intro'ed US$4tr of #QE. In 2020, when #Covid19 pandemic threatened te #Bernankebubble, Powell intro'ed US$4tr more QE, paving way for AI bubble"🤫
https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3353772/not-even-quick-end-iran-war-can-save-ai-stock-bubble-now?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article -
Not even a quick end to Iran war can save #AI #stock #bubble now
"Te #AIbubble is only te latest fin'cial bubble since #Greenspan took over #USFed in 1987. He made it his job to prop up stressed financial markets w liquidity. It biased US #monetary #policy twds inflating asset mkts. When #Greenspanbubble popped in 2008, Bernanke intro'ed US$4tr of #QE. In 2020, when #Covid19 pandemic threatened te #Bernankebubble, Powell intro'ed US$4tr more QE, paving way for AI bubble"🤫
https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3353772/not-even-quick-end-iran-war-can-save-ai-stock-bubble-now?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article -
Not even a quick end to Iran war can save #AI #stock #bubble now
"Te #AIbubble is only te latest fin'cial bubble since #Greenspan took over #USFed in 1987. He made it his job to prop up stressed financial markets w liquidity. It biased US #monetary #policy twds inflating asset mkts. When #Greenspanbubble popped in 2008, Bernanke intro'ed US$4tr of #QE. In 2020, when #Covid19 pandemic threatened te #Bernankebubble, Powell intro'ed US$4tr more QE, paving way for AI bubble"🤫
https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3353772/not-even-quick-end-iran-war-can-save-ai-stock-bubble-now?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article -
Not even a quick end to Iran war can save #AI #stock #bubble now
"Te #AIbubble is only te latest fin'cial bubble since #Greenspan took over #USFed in 1987. He made it his job to prop up stressed financial markets w liquidity. It biased US #monetary #policy twds inflating asset mkts. When #Greenspanbubble popped in 2008, Bernanke intro'ed US$4tr of #QE. In 2020, when #Covid19 pandemic threatened te #Bernankebubble, Powell intro'ed US$4tr more QE, paving way for AI bubble"🤫
https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3353772/not-even-quick-end-iran-war-can-save-ai-stock-bubble-now?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article -
https://www.europesays.com/iran/125364/ Opinion | Not even a quick end to Iran war can save AI stock bubble now #AIBubble #AlanGreenspan #America #BenBernanke #DonaldTrump #Europe #Iran #Japan #JeromePowell #stagflation #USFederalReserve #USStockMarket #USIsraeliWar #WesternEconomies
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"If we assume that its spend is comparable on AWS and Google Cloud — and it’s most-assuredly more! — that means Anthropic is spending around $3.75 billion in compute costs, or $11.25 billion a quarter, or $45 billion a year.
There’s also a very compelling argument that Anthropic’s costs will increase and will eat up that profitability, to once again quote the Wall Street Journal:
The company might not remain profitable for the full year as it plans spending increases due to its vast computing needs.
I also have to wonder: if you’re so profitable, why not IPO? Why not take this to the public markets?Unless, of course, you’re only non-GAAP EBITDA profitable based on a two-month-long discount specifically covering the period in which you’re profitable. And, of course, when you’re not a publicly-traded company, and so you don’t actually have to publish any numbers (and no, leaking them doesn’t count), and you’re not subject to SEC oversight.
I will give Dario Amodei credit: nobody does financial engineering and a press-led information war better than Anthropic. The willingness of the press to eat up incongruent numbers and the eagerness of many to jump up and find obtuse ways to explain away the obvious problems is only made possible when a company has perfected the art of manipulation and ingratiation of those who want to feel like they’re “first.”
If you take this as incontrovertible proof that Anthropic is profitable, you are deliberately ignoring the blatantly obvious ways these numbers are being massaged. We’ve got its CFO saying numbers that don’t match up with these leaks or Anthropic’s own marketing materials, and the aggressive and deluded way in which many people ignore them is equal parts frustrating and depressing."
https://www.wheresyoured.at/anthropics-profitability-swindle/
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https://www.europesays.com/iran/125040/ The Iran War Is Inflating the AI Bubble, Wells Fargo Says #AI #AIBubble #analyst #CapitalExpenditure #equity #firm #GrowthOpportunity #Hormuz #Iran #IranWar #note #OilPrice #Stock #strait #week #WellsFargo
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The Iran War Is Inflating the AI Bubble, Wells Fargo Says
The war in Iran has only fueled the AI bubble, Wells Fargo analysts said. Loading audio narration… The…
#NewsBeep #News #BreakingNews #AI #aibubble #analyst #breakingnews #capitalexpenditure #equity #firm #growthopportunity #hormuz #Iran #iranwar #note #oilprice #Stock #strait #week #wellsfargo
https://www.newsbeep.com/550935/ -
If I had to guess what the main drivers of the AI bubble are, my first guesses are these:
1. The End of Economic Growth
We are getting closer and closer to the point where it will become impossible to even simulate growth; real net growth of the economy as a whole might be over already. All those huge investments in hypertrophic machine learning models that need huge servers to run, and in the computing centres with the hardware for training and running those models, are big money desperately trying to find a new growing market.
2. Science Fiction Mythology Running Wild
For many people nowadays, science fiction has replaced religion and traditional mythology, as we can see in the rise of UFO cults, one of the biggest ones being Scientology. Rich people, engineers, even scientists, are not immune to having irrational beliefs about our future. People who don't believe in any traditional gods somehow quite often still believe that humans can (and should) build artificial deities.
3. Unhinged Techbro Oligarchs
Oh boy, I'm not going to write anything about those men right now, other than that being completely insulated against the consequences of your own failures (because you can always pay your way out of everything) and being surrounded by people who constantly tell you that even your silliest rubbish ideas are brilliant (because you pay them) will break even the strongest mind.
4. Fairytales of Slavery (OK, I had to steal the title of my favourite Miranda Sex Garden album)
There is this idea of AI as obedient slaves that can never revolt, and since they aren't human, they don't get to have human rights, which of course means that nobody is going to ever set them free. All the people who wish they could own slaves like in the Good Old Days™ (whether the Southern US before the First Civil War [I think there will be a 2nd one] or in Ancient Rome or whatever your favourite historical setting is) can now dream of buying a robot.
5. Intelligence Supposedly Solves Everything
There is this strange belief about the power of intelligence, the idea that everything is just a problem that has a solution, and that we can always find any solution if we just apply enough intelligence. This also applies to problems where we already know the solution, have known them for decades, yet don't implement them because we don't like the consequences. Many people seem to think that even the laws of nature can be outsmarted with enough intelligence, which is quite silly IMHO. AI won't solve the polycrisis because climate chaos, species extinction, ecosystem degradation, resource depletion, pollution, etc., aren't first and foremost technological problems but systemic ones, the main driver behind the polycrisis is the fact that our global economy has become too big for this planet, and going to space is just bollocks because there is no biosphere anywhere we can reach, there is no place anywhere besides Earth that doesn't just kill us if we make a mistake. No amount of intelligence, whether artificial or natural, can do anything about the fact that we need to stop what we've been doing for centuries, or the Earth will stop us by letting us die. We can't continue what we've been doing, it's simply impossible. But we're trapped in a myth that stems from the Age of Enlightenment, the myth of reshaping the world through thinking, which just doesn't work. We're not the bosses of the universe or even just the Earth, we're part of the biosphere, part of the fauna, nothing but a bunch of very clever apes who believe in silly stories.
Unlike many of you, I am not against AI. I think AI is a very interesting research field, or rather, bundle of loosely related research fields. No, I am against Capitalism and against the myths of limitless growth and post-scarcity. Resources have always been scarce, resources will always be scarce, but we can still have a halfway decent life for everyone on the planet if we just share everything and abolish private property. At least for now; over the course of the coming decades, things will get dramatically worse no matter what we do because we're so deep in ecological overshoot that the Industrial Age will enter its phase of decline and collapse, just like any other civilisation before it. We can either apply the solutions that have been known and explored for decades, or we can keep running towards the cliff at increasing speed while trying to sprout magical wings that will in all likelihood never exist.
#ai #aibubble #πολυκρίσης #polykrisis #polycrisis #capitalism #aireligion #aicult #limitstogrowth #intelligence
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If I had to guess what the main drivers of the AI bubble are, my first guesses are these:
1. The End of Economic Growth
We are getting closer and closer to the point where it will become impossible to even simulate growth; real net growth of the economy as a whole might be over already. All those huge investments in hypertrophic machine learning models that need huge servers to run, and in the computing centres with the hardware for training and running those models, are big money desperately trying to find a new growing market.
2. Science Fiction Mythology Running Wild
For many people nowadays, science fiction has replaced religion and traditional mythology, as we can see in the rise of UFO cults, one of the biggest ones being Scientology. Rich people, engineers, even scientists, are not immune to having irrational beliefs about our future. People who don't believe in any traditional gods somehow quite often still believe that humans can (and should) build artificial deities.
3. Unhinged Techbro Oligarchs
Oh boy, I'm not going to write anything about those men right now, other than that being completely insulated against the consequences of your own failures (because you can always pay your way out of everything) and being surrounded by people who constantly tell you that even your silliest rubbish ideas are brilliant (because you pay them) will break even the strongest mind.
4. Fairytales of Slavery (OK, I had to steal the title of my favourite Miranda Sex Garden album)
There is this idea of AI as obedient slaves that can never revolt, and since they aren't human, they don't get to have human rights, which of course means that nobody is going to ever set them free. All the people who wish they could own slaves like in the Good Old Days™ (whether the Southern US before the First Civil War [I think there will be a 2nd one] or in Ancient Rome or whatever your favourite historical setting is) can now dream of buying a robot.
5. Intelligence Supposedly Solves Everything
There is this strange belief about the power of intelligence, the idea that everything is just a problem that has a solution, and that we can always find any solution if we just apply enough intelligence. This also applies to problems where we already know the solution, have known them for decades, yet don't implement them because we don't like the consequences. Many people seem to think that even the laws of nature can be outsmarted with enough intelligence, which is quite silly IMHO. AI won't solve the polycrisis because climate chaos, species extinction, ecosystem degradation, resource depletion, pollution, etc., aren't first and foremost technological problems but systemic ones, the main driver behind the polycrisis is the fact that our global economy has become too big for this planet, and going to space is just bollocks because there is no biosphere anywhere we can reach, there is no place anywhere besides Earth that doesn't just kill us if we make a mistake. No amount of intelligence, whether artificial or natural, can do anything about the fact that we need to stop what we've been doing for centuries, or the Earth will stop us by letting us die. We can't continue what we've been doing, it's simply impossible. But we're trapped in a myth that stems from the Age of Enlightenment, the myth of reshaping the world through thinking, which just doesn't work. We're not the bosses of the universe or even just the Earth, we're part of the biosphere, part of the fauna, nothing but a bunch of very clever apes who believe in silly stories.
Unlike many of you, I am not against AI. I think AI is a very interesting research field, or rather, bundle of loosely related research fields. No, I am against Capitalism and against the myths of limitless growth and post-scarcity. Resources have always been scarce, resources will always be scarce, but we can still have a halfway decent life for everyone on the planet if we just share everything and abolish private property. At least for now; over the course of the coming decades, things will get dramatically worse no matter what we do because we're so deep in ecological overshoot that the Industrial Age will enter its phase of decline and collapse, just like any other civilisation before it. We can either apply the solutions that have been known and explored for decades, or we can keep running towards the cliff at increasing speed while trying to sprout magical wings that will in all likelihood never exist.
#ai #aibubble #πολυκρίσης #polykrisis #polycrisis #capitalism #aireligion #aicult #limitstogrowth #intelligence
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If I had to guess what the main drivers of the AI bubble are, my first guesses are these:
1. The End of Economic Growth
We are getting closer and closer to the point where it will become impossible to even simulate growth; real net growth of the economy as a whole might be over already. All those huge investments in hypertrophic machine learning models that need huge servers to run, and in the computing centres with the hardware for training and running those models, are big money desperately trying to find a new growing market.
2. Science Fiction Mythology Running Wild
For many people nowadays, science fiction has replaced religion and traditional mythology, as we can see in the rise of UFO cults, one of the biggest ones being Scientology. Rich people, engineers, even scientists, are not immune to having irrational beliefs about our future. People who don't believe in any traditional gods somehow quite often still believe that humans can (and should) build artificial deities.
3. Unhinged Techbro Oligarchs
Oh boy, I'm not going to write anything about those men right now, other than that being completely insulated against the consequences of your own failures (because you can always pay your way out of everything) and being surrounded by people who constantly tell you that even your silliest rubbish ideas are brilliant (because you pay them) will break even the strongest mind.
4. Fairytales of Slavery (OK, I had to steal the title of my favourite Miranda Sex Garden album)
There is this idea of AI as obedient slaves that can never revolt, and since they aren't human, they don't get to have human rights, which of course means that nobody is going to ever set them free. All the people who wish they could own slaves like in the Good Old Days™ (whether the Southern US before the First Civil War [I think there will be a 2nd one] or in Ancient Rome or whatever your favourite historical setting is) can now dream of buying a robot.
5. Intelligence Supposedly Solves Everything
There is this strange belief about the power of intelligence, the idea that everything is just a problem that has a solution, and that we can always find any solution if we just apply enough intelligence. This also applies to problems where we already know the solution, have known them for decades, yet don't implement them because we don't like the consequences. Many people seem to think that even the laws of nature can be outsmarted with enough intelligence, which is quite silly IMHO. AI won't solve the polycrisis because climate chaos, species extinction, ecosystem degradation, resource depletion, pollution, etc., aren't first and foremost technological problems but systemic ones, the main driver behind the polycrisis is the fact that our global economy has become too big for this planet, and going to space is just bollocks because there is no biosphere anywhere we can reach, there is no place anywhere besides Earth that doesn't just kill us if we make a mistake. No amount of intelligence, whether artificial or natural, can do anything about the fact that we need to stop what we've been doing for centuries, or the Earth will stop us by letting us die. We can't continue what we've been doing, it's simply impossible. But we're trapped in a myth that stems from the Age of Enlightenment, the myth of reshaping the world through thinking, which just doesn't work. We're not the bosses of the universe or even just the Earth, we're part of the biosphere, part of the fauna, nothing but a bunch of very clever apes who believe in silly stories.
Unlike many of you, I am not against AI. I think AI is a very interesting research field, or rather, bundle of loosely related research fields. No, I am against Capitalism and against the myths of limitless growth and post-scarcity. Resources have always been scarce, resources will always be scarce, but we can still have a halfway decent life for everyone on the planet if we just share everything and abolish private property. At least for now; over the course of the coming decades, things will get dramatically worse no matter what we do because we're so deep in ecological overshoot that the Industrial Age will enter its phase of decline and collapse, just like any other civilisation before it. We can either apply the solutions that have been known and explored for decades, or we can keep running towards the cliff at increasing speed while trying to sprout magical wings that will in all likelihood never exist.
#ai #aibubble #πολυκρίσης #polykrisis #polycrisis #capitalism #aireligion #aicult #limitstogrowth #intelligence
-
If I had to guess what the main drivers of the AI bubble are, my first guesses are these:
1. The End of Economic Growth
We are getting closer and closer to the point where it will become impossible to even simulate growth; real net growth of the economy as a whole might be over already. All those huge investments in hypertrophic machine learning models that need huge servers to run, and in the computing centres with the hardware for training and running those models, are big money desperately trying to find a new growing market.
2. Science Fiction Mythology Running Wild
For many people nowadays, science fiction has replaced religion and traditional mythology, as we can see in the rise of UFO cults, one of the biggest ones being Scientology. Rich people, engineers, even scientists, are not immune to having irrational beliefs about our future. People who don't believe in any traditional gods somehow quite often still believe that humans can (and should) build artificial deities.
3. Unhinged Techbro Oligarchs
Oh boy, I'm not going to write anything about those men right now, other than that being completely insulated against the consequences of your own failures (because you can always pay your way out of everything) and being surrounded by people who constantly tell you that even your silliest rubbish ideas are brilliant (because you pay them) will break even the strongest mind.
4. Fairytales of Slavery (OK, I had to steal the title of my favourite Miranda Sex Garden album)
There is this idea of AI as obedient slaves that can never revolt, and since they aren't human, they don't get to have human rights, which of course means that nobody is going to ever set them free. All the people who wish they could own slaves like in the Good Old Days™ (whether the Southern US before the First Civil War [I think there will be a 2nd one] or in Ancient Rome or whatever your favourite historical setting is) can now dream of buying a robot.
5. Intelligence Supposedly Solves Everything
There is this strange belief about the power of intelligence, the idea that everything is just a problem that has a solution, and that we can always find any solution if we just apply enough intelligence. This also applies to problems where we already know the solution, have known them for decades, yet don't implement them because we don't like the consequences. Many people seem to think that even the laws of nature can be outsmarted with enough intelligence, which is quite silly IMHO. AI won't solve the polycrisis because climate chaos, species extinction, ecosystem degradation, resource depletion, pollution, etc., aren't first and foremost technological problems but systemic ones, the main driver behind the polycrisis is the fact that our global economy has become too big for this planet, and going to space is just bollocks because there is no biosphere anywhere we can reach, there is no place anywhere besides Earth that doesn't just kill us if we make a mistake. No amount of intelligence, whether artificial or natural, can do anything about the fact that we need to stop what we've been doing for centuries, or the Earth will stop us by letting us die. We can't continue what we've been doing, it's simply impossible. But we're trapped in a myth that stems from the Age of Enlightenment, the myth of reshaping the world through thinking, which just doesn't work. We're not the bosses of the universe or even just the Earth, we're part of the biosphere, part of the fauna, nothing but a bunch of very clever apes who believe in silly stories.
Unlike many of you, I am not against AI. I think AI is a very interesting research field, or rather, bundle of loosely related research fields. No, I am against Capitalism and against the myths of limitless growth and post-scarcity. Resources have always been scarce, resources will always be scarce, but we can still have a halfway decent life for everyone on the planet if we just share everything and abolish private property. At least for now; over the course of the coming decades, things will get dramatically worse no matter what we do because we're so deep in ecological overshoot that the Industrial Age will enter its phase of decline and collapse, just like any other civilisation before it. We can either apply the solutions that have been known and explored for decades, or we can keep running towards the cliff at increasing speed while trying to sprout magical wings that will in all likelihood never exist.
#ai #aibubble #πολυκρίσης #polykrisis #polycrisis #capitalism #aireligion #aicult #limitstogrowth #intelligence
-
If I had to guess what the main drivers of the AI bubble are, my first guesses are these:
1. The End of Economic Growth
We are getting closer and closer to the point where it will become impossible to even simulate growth; real net growth of the economy as a whole might be over already. All those huge investments in hypertrophic machine learning models that need huge servers to run, and in the computing centres with the hardware for training and running those models, are big money desperately trying to find a new growing market.
2. Science Fiction Mythology Running Wild
For many people nowadays, science fiction has replaced religion and traditional mythology, as we can see in the rise of UFO cults, one of the biggest ones being Scientology. Rich people, engineers, even scientists, are not immune to having irrational beliefs about our future. People who don't believe in any traditional gods somehow quite often still believe that humans can (and should) build artificial deities.
3. Unhinged Techbro Oligarchs
Oh boy, I'm not going to write anything about those men right now, other than that being completely insulated against the consequences of your own failures (because you can always pay your way out of everything) and being surrounded by people who constantly tell you that even your silliest rubbish ideas are brilliant (because you pay them) will break even the strongest mind.
4. Fairytales of Slavery (OK, I had to steal the title of my favourite Miranda Sex Garden album)
There is this idea of AI as obedient slaves that can never revolt, and since they aren't human, they don't get to have human rights, which of course means that nobody is going to ever set them free. All the people who wish they could own slaves like in the Good Old Days™ (whether the Southern US before the First Civil War [I think there will be a 2nd one] or in Ancient Rome or whatever your favourite historical setting is) can now dream of buying a robot.
5. Intelligence Supposedly Solves Everything
There is this strange belief about the power of intelligence, the idea that everything is just a problem that has a solution, and that we can always find any solution if we just apply enough intelligence. This also applies to problems where we already know the solution, have known them for decades, yet don't implement them because we don't like the consequences. Many people seem to think that even the laws of nature can be outsmarted with enough intelligence, which is quite silly IMHO. AI won't solve the polycrisis because climate chaos, species extinction, ecosystem degradation, resource depletion, pollution, etc., aren't first and foremost technological problems but systemic ones, the main driver behind the polycrisis is the fact that our global economy has become too big for this planet, and going to space is just bollocks because there is no biosphere anywhere we can reach, there is no place anywhere besides Earth that doesn't just kill us if we make a mistake. No amount of intelligence, whether artificial or natural, can do anything about the fact that we need to stop what we've been doing for centuries, or the Earth will stop us by letting us die. We can't continue what we've been doing, it's simply impossible. But we're trapped in a myth that stems from the Age of Enlightenment, the myth of reshaping the world through thinking, which just doesn't work. We're not the bosses of the universe or even just the Earth, we're part of the biosphere, part of the fauna, nothing but a bunch of very clever apes who believe in silly stories.
Unlike many of you, I am not against AI. I think AI is a very interesting research field, or rather, bundle of loosely related research fields. No, I am against Capitalism and against the myths of limitless growth and post-scarcity. Resources have always been scarce, resources will always be scarce, but we can still have a halfway decent life for everyone on the planet if we just share everything and abolish private property. At least for now; over the course of the coming decades, things will get dramatically worse no matter what we do because we're so deep in ecological overshoot that the Industrial Age will enter its phase of decline and collapse, just like any other civilisation before it. We can either apply the solutions that have been known and explored for decades, or we can keep running towards the cliff at increasing speed while trying to sprout magical wings that will in all likelihood never exist.
#ai #aibubble #πολυκρίσης #polykrisis #polycrisis #capitalism #aireligion #aicult #limitstogrowth #intelligence
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"[R]emember that US GDP growth currently is driven exclusively by rising tech spending. If these start to drop, the US economy will enter recession very quickly — even if tech investments decline only by a little bit, say 4 to 6 per cent, as happened after much smaller tech booms in the 1960s and during the 2009 recession.
Such a mild correction in investment spending is likely to still send stock markets in the US, UK and across Europe into a new bear market. A repeat of the tech crash in the early 2000s is a real risk with stock market drops of 50 per cent or more in the first year.
The question then becomes, when could we see such announcements by the hyperscalers? I think it is unlikely to happen in 2026. The efforts by OpenAI, Anthropic and others to keep the hype going at least until after their respective IPOs are likely to support the boom for now. But then what? The impossible maths of hyperscalers stays the same, but the marketing hype may fade. And eventually, reality will kick in.
Probably not in 2026, but possibly in 2027 or 2028. After all, Greenspan talked about irrational exuberance in December 1996, but the bubble only burst three years later in 2000.
Viewed through this lens, the IPO of these AI companies is probably nothing more than a major transfer of investment risk from the current owners to retail investors, pension funds and others who are willing to buy the hype."
https://www.ft.com/content/32bf8935-8d21-4689-ae34-8b4d3d5f6d93
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The #StateOfAI2026 results reveal that 70 % of participants agree or strongly agree that we're in the midst of an #AIBubble
https://2026.stateofai.dev/en-US/opinions/#ai_bubble_currently
#amCoding #amProgramming #StateOfAI #AI #artificialIntelligence #noAI #AIHype #softwareEngineering #softwareDevelopment #StateOfWebDev
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The #StateOfAI2026 results reveal that 70 % of participants agree or strongly agree that we're in the midst of an #AIBubble
https://2026.stateofai.dev/en-US/opinions/#ai_bubble_currently
#amCoding #amProgramming #StateOfAI #AI #artificialIntelligence #noAI #AIHype #softwareEngineering #softwareDevelopment #StateOfWebDev
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The #StateOfAI2026 results reveal that 70 % of participants agree or strongly agree that we're in the midst of an #AIBubble
https://2026.stateofai.dev/en-US/opinions/#ai_bubble_currently
#amCoding #amProgramming #StateOfAI #AI #artificialIntelligence #noAI #AIHype #softwareEngineering #softwareDevelopment #StateOfWebDev
-
The #StateOfAI2026 results reveal that 70 % of participants agree or strongly agree that we're in the midst of an #AIBubble
https://2026.stateofai.dev/en-US/opinions/#ai_bubble_currently
#amCoding #amProgramming #StateOfAI #AI #artificialIntelligence #noAI #AIHype #softwareEngineering #softwareDevelopment #StateOfWebDev
-
The #StateOfAI2026 results reveal that 70 % of participants agree or strongly agree that we're in the midst of an #AIBubble
https://2026.stateofai.dev/en-US/opinions/#ai_bubble_currently
#amCoding #amProgramming #StateOfAI #AI #artificialIntelligence #noAI #AIHype #softwareEngineering #softwareDevelopment #StateOfWebDev
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When is this fucking thing going to crash already?
https://www.businessinsider.com/big-short-michael-burry-ai-stocks-dot-com-bubble-crash-2026-5
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#Muskloses has a nice ring - yes!🎉🥂🥳👏 - though Altman's not really innocent either.🧐
Musk loses blockbuster OpenAI suit as jury says too late
"Hours of questions and testimony had centered heavily on #Altman's #integrity and behind-the-scenes maneuvering as a CEO that rankled colleagues, many of whom have since left #OpenAI.. emerged from the trial with allegations of manipulation and a #toxic work #culture largely #unresolved by the #verdict."
#AIbubble 💢
#CancelMusk
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/3257374/musk-loses-blockbuster-openai-suit-as-jury-says-too-late -
#Muskloses has a nice ring - yes!🎉🥂🥳👏 - though Altman's not really innocent either.🧐
Musk loses blockbuster OpenAI suit as jury says too late
"Hours of questions and testimony had centered heavily on #Altman's #integrity and behind-the-scenes maneuvering as a CEO that rankled colleagues, many of whom have since left #OpenAI.. emerged from the trial with allegations of manipulation and a #toxic work #culture largely #unresolved by the #verdict."
#AIbubble 💢
#CancelMusk
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/3257374/musk-loses-blockbuster-openai-suit-as-jury-says-too-late -
#Muskloses has a nice ring - yes!🎉🥂🥳👏 - though Altman's not really innocent either.🧐
Musk loses blockbuster OpenAI suit as jury says too late
"Hours of questions and testimony had centered heavily on #Altman's #integrity and behind-the-scenes maneuvering as a CEO that rankled colleagues, many of whom have since left #OpenAI.. emerged from the trial with allegations of manipulation and a #toxic work #culture largely #unresolved by the #verdict."
#AIbubble 💢
#CancelMusk
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/3257374/musk-loses-blockbuster-openai-suit-as-jury-says-too-late -
#Muskloses has a nice ring - yes!🎉🥂🥳👏 - though Altman's not really innocent either.🧐
Musk loses blockbuster OpenAI suit as jury says too late
"Hours of questions and testimony had centered heavily on #Altman's #integrity and behind-the-scenes maneuvering as a CEO that rankled colleagues, many of whom have since left #OpenAI.. emerged from the trial with allegations of manipulation and a #toxic work #culture largely #unresolved by the #verdict."
#AIbubble 💢
#CancelMusk
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/3257374/musk-loses-blockbuster-openai-suit-as-jury-says-too-late -
#Muskloses has a nice ring - yes!🎉🥂🥳👏 - though Altman's not really innocent either.🧐
Musk loses blockbuster OpenAI suit as jury says too late
"Hours of questions and testimony had centered heavily on #Altman's #integrity and behind-the-scenes maneuvering as a CEO that rankled colleagues, many of whom have since left #OpenAI.. emerged from the trial with allegations of manipulation and a #toxic work #culture largely #unresolved by the #verdict."
#AIbubble 💢
#CancelMusk
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/3257374/musk-loses-blockbuster-openai-suit-as-jury-says-too-late
