#decisionscience — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #decisionscience, aggregated by home.social.
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FYI: Youtility raises $4.2M to kill demographic guesswork with behavioral AI: Youtility Decision Science closed a $4.2M seed round on April 23, 2026, with Fyllo and Silver Falcon Capital to build real-time behavioral AI decisioning APIs. https://ppc.land/youtility-raises-4-2m-to-kill-demographic-guesswork-with-behavioral-ai/ #Youtility #BehavioralAI #DecisionScience #SeedFunding #InvestmentNews
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ICYMI: Youtility raises $4.2M to kill demographic guesswork with behavioral AI: Youtility Decision Science closed a $4.2M seed round on April 23, 2026, with Fyllo and Silver Falcon Capital to build real-time behavioral AI decisioning APIs. https://ppc.land/youtility-raises-4-2m-to-kill-demographic-guesswork-with-behavioral-ai/ #Youtility #BehavioralAI #DecisionScience #SeedFunding #TechInvestments
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Youtility raises $4.2M to kill demographic guesswork with behavioral AI: Youtility Decision Science closed a $4.2M seed round on April 23, 2026, with Fyllo and Silver Falcon Capital to build real-time behavioral AI decisioning APIs. https://ppc.land/youtility-raises-4-2m-to-kill-demographic-guesswork-with-behavioral-ai/ #Youtility #BehavioralAI #DecisionScience #SeedFunding #Investment
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RE: https://flipboard.com/@npr/politics-v8m4p3ukz/-/a-lyLNjQfRQJKEoDaSRVJTpw%3Aa%3A3195441-%2F0
Do U.S. voters realize the scale and cost of the 47th #POTUS's *drastic* #immigration "slow-walking"?
This backlog is bigger than ALL FOUR YEARS of the 45th POTUS's term.
It's stopped TONS of #science by removing work authorization from LOADS of #scientists who were ALREADY LEGALLY WORKING HERE FOR YEARS (e.g., when graduating Ph.D. #students or #postdocs have to transition to an H-1B #visa when OPT expires).
We had to halt multiple #decisionScience projects when a Research Project Manager completed their doctorate. Why? Because #USCIS simply isn't processing certain #OPT applications — and #H1B processing is much slower than normal times. In the past year, the #UnitedStates multiplied this loss of #innovation and #productivity by HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS! And with no detectable benefit to #security, etc.
Naturally, the highest-skilled foreign nationals are taking their skills to other countries, contributing to further #brainDrain from the #USA.
Incredible waste and inefficiency.
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RE: https://flipboard.com/@npr/politics-v8m4p3ukz/-/a-lyLNjQfRQJKEoDaSRVJTpw%3Aa%3A3195441-%2F0
Do U.S. voters realize the scale and cost of the 47th #POTUS's *drastic* #immigration "slow-walking"?
This backlog is bigger than ALL FOUR YEARS of the 45th POTUS's term.
It's stopped TONS of #science by removing work authorization from LOADS of #scientists who were ALREADY LEGALLY WORKING HERE FOR YEARS (e.g., when graduating Ph.D. #students or #postdocs have to transition to an H-1B #visa when OPT expires).
We had to halt multiple #decisionScience projects when a Research Project Manager completed their doctorate. Why? Because #USCIS simply isn't processing certain #OPT applications — and #H1B processing is much slower than normal times. In the past year, the #UnitedStates multiplied this loss of #innovation and #productivity by HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS! And with no detectable benefit to #security, etc.
Naturally, the highest-skilled foreign nationals are taking their skills to other countries, contributing to further #brainDrain from the #USA.
Incredible waste and inefficiency.
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How else can automated text messages educate medical patients?
Adding automated text messages to a paper-based decision aid program improved lung #cancer screening knowledge and screening rates.
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How else can automated text messages educate medical patients?
Adding automated text messages to a paper-based decision aid program improved lung #cancer screening knowledge and screening rates.
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RE: https://mastodon.online/@tomstafford/116041517300854913
As I explain in my post about the #BiasFallacy (https://byrdnick.com/archives/11072/the-bias-fallacy), Tom shows how #bias can be a good thing.
My example of good bias was ignoring irrelevant variables in #science to avoid spurious or misleading correlations.
Tom’s examples are probable better: fire alarms and #signalDetectionTheory. Worth a read!
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RE: https://mastodon.online/@tomstafford/116041517300854913
As I explain in my post about the #BiasFallacy (https://byrdnick.com/archives/11072/the-bias-fallacy), Tom shows how #bias can be a good thing.
My example of good bias was ignoring irrelevant variables in #science to avoid spurious or misleading correlations.
Tom’s examples are probable better: fire alarms and #signalDetectionTheory. Worth a read!
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The latest #PhilosophyOfScience of #DecisionMaking seminar is starting!
This week: Malvina Ongaro, who will present her paper, “Decision-making for the management of natural risks”
More about the series: https://sites.google.com/view/philscidec/home
#PhilSciDec #Philosophy #Psychology #DecisionScience #CogSci
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The latest #PhilosophyOfScience of #DecisionMaking seminar is starting!
This week: Malvina Ongaro, who will present her paper, “Decision-making for the management of natural risks”
More about the series: https://sites.google.com/view/philscidec/home
#PhilSciDec #Philosophy #Psychology #DecisionScience #CogSci
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#AI reasoning models may seem to reason reflectively when they say things like, "Let me rethink that".
But do these "reflective" phrases predict better reasoning performance?
Not in #Deepseek R1 Zero: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2503.20783
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#AI reasoning models may seem to reason reflectively when they say things like, "Let me rethink that".
But do these "reflective" phrases predict better reasoning performance?
Not in #Deepseek R1 Zero: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2503.20783
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Jon Baron shared Peter Wakker's annotated bibliography of #decisionTheory
> 9000 entries!
DocX http://personal.eur.nl/wakker/refs/webrfrncs.docx
PDF http://personal.eur.nl/wakker/refs/webrfrncs.pdf
BibTeX (no annotations, I merged redundancies) https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/vbkki82h62ydq0fol1g8d/Decision-Theory.bib?rlkey=84m8zx3tyaa4uy6p0zptkybnx&st=qx9myebb&dl=0
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Jon Baron shared Peter Wakker's annotated bibliography of #decisionTheory
> 9000 entries!
DocX http://personal.eur.nl/wakker/refs/webrfrncs.docx
PDF http://personal.eur.nl/wakker/refs/webrfrncs.pdf
BibTeX (no annotations, I merged redundancies) https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/vbkki82h62ydq0fol1g8d/Decision-Theory.bib?rlkey=84m8zx3tyaa4uy6p0zptkybnx&st=qx9myebb&dl=0
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🤔 Not what I expected!
More people preferred high diagnostic uncertainty than low, even though the higher uncertainty caused more worry.
Within- and between-subject, quant and qual results: https://doi.org/10.1136/jme-2024-109932
#medicine #decisionScience #probability #bioethics #openAccess
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🤔 Not what I expected!
More people preferred high diagnostic uncertainty than low, even though the higher uncertainty caused more worry.
Within- and between-subject, quant and qual results: https://doi.org/10.1136/jme-2024-109932
#medicine #decisionScience #probability #bioethics #openAccess
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#Microsoft's viral paper about *correlations* between #AI use and #criticalThinking also has "impact" in the title (despite admitting "Our analysis does not establish #causation"). 🤦♂️
#Confidence in #GenAI predicted LESS critical thinking.
SELF-confidence predicted MORE critical thinking.
PREDICTED ≠ CAUSED
#computerScience #LLMs #work #decisionScience #psychology #surveyResearch #management #logic
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#Microsoft's viral paper about *correlations* between #AI use and #criticalThinking also has "impact" in the title (despite admitting "Our analysis does not establish #causation"). 🤦♂️
#Confidence in #GenAI predicted LESS critical thinking.
SELF-confidence predicted MORE critical thinking.
PREDICTED ≠ CAUSED
#computerScience #LLMs #work #decisionScience #psychology #surveyResearch #management #logic
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Df. "clinical #equipoise describes a situation of evidentiary uncertainty among experts"
Opel et al. argue such equipoise is neither necessary nor sufficient for #SharedDecisionMaking.
Rather SDM is most useful where tradeoffs between options are KNOWN.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11606-025-09410-z
#medicine #decisionScience #bioethics #epistemology #philosophyOfScience #socialPsychology #edu #SciComm
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Df. "clinical #equipoise describes a situation of evidentiary uncertainty among experts"
Opel et al. argue such equipoise is neither necessary nor sufficient for #SharedDecisionMaking.
Rather SDM is most useful where tradeoffs between options are KNOWN.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11606-025-09410-z
#medicine #decisionScience #bioethics #epistemology #philosophyOfScience #socialPsychology #edu #SciComm
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What medical problem statement features help or hinder #chatGPT's #diagnosis accuracy?
- more comorbidities and historical items hurt differentials
- more examination items and use of 3-part statement format helped -
What medical problem statement features help or hinder #chatGPT's #diagnosis accuracy?
- more comorbidities and historical items hurt differentials
- more examination items and use of 3-part statement format helped -
Good news in our preprint about #polarization:
Demand for BIPARTISAN #news analysis was strong!
People in the #US preferred fact-checking teams that engaged in #AdversarialCollaboration at least as much as copartisan and/or professional teams.
Follow the manuscript or authors on #GoogleScholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cluster=1017561778629165218
If you prefer a link directly to our preprint: https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/gp9w7
#journalism #socialMedia #decisionScience #collectiveIntelligence #socialPsychology #politicalPsychology #epistemology #xPhi
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Good news in our preprint about #polarization:
Demand for BIPARTISAN #news analysis was strong!
People in the #US preferred fact-checking teams that engaged in #AdversarialCollaboration at least as much as copartisan and/or professional teams.
Follow the manuscript or authors on #GoogleScholar: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?oi=bibs&hl=en&cluster=1017561778629165218
If you prefer a link directly to our preprint: https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/gp9w7
#journalism #socialMedia #decisionScience #collectiveIntelligence #socialPsychology #politicalPsychology #epistemology #xPhi
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An adversarial collaboration reports that mathematical reflection tests assess #math ability about as much as anything else. 😬
And what is the evidence that the paper's “independent” measure of reflection actually measured reflection? 🧐
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2409191121
#psychometrics #psychology #cogPsych #JDM #decisionScience #economics #factorAnalysis #stats #rStats
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An adversarial collaboration reports that mathematical reflection tests assess #math ability about as much as anything else. 😬
And what is the evidence that the paper's “independent” measure of reflection actually measured reflection? 🧐
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2409191121
#psychometrics #psychology #cogPsych #JDM #decisionScience #economics #factorAnalysis #stats #rStats
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Excited for 2025 presentations in #NYC at the #APA (January 8 to 11): apaonline.org/mpage/2025eastern?utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=fedica-Text-posts
The talk: https://researchgate.net/publication/370132037?utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=fedica-Text-posts
The poster: https://researchgate.net/publication/371248872?utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=fedica-Text-posts#decisionScience #philosophy #xPhi #epistemology #bioethics #cognitiveScience #surveyMethods #DualProcessTheory
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Excited for 2025 presentations in #NYC at the #APA (January 8 to 11): apaonline.org/mpage/2025eastern?utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=fedica-Text-posts
The talk: https://researchgate.net/publication/370132037?utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=fedica-Text-posts
The poster: https://researchgate.net/publication/371248872?utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=fedica-Text-posts#decisionScience #philosophy #xPhi #epistemology #bioethics #cognitiveScience #surveyMethods #DualProcessTheory
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I’m sharing talks and posters from this weekend’s Society for #JDM #conference over on #BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/byrdnick.com/post/3lbmo4zclhc2d
The first talk’s about the #jobMarket. By the way, I’m hiring a 3-year #postdoc who can do #quant #decisionScience — #WFH or on campus: https://geisinger.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/GeisingerExternal/job/Danville-PA/Postdoctoral-Fellow---Decision-Sciences--Remote-Capable-_R-69755
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I’m sharing talks and posters from this weekend’s Society for #JDM #conference over on #BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/byrdnick.com/post/3lbmo4zclhc2d
The first talk’s about the #jobMarket. By the way, I’m hiring a 3-year #postdoc who can do #quant #decisionScience — #WFH or on campus: https://geisinger.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/GeisingerExternal/job/Danville-PA/Postdoctoral-Fellow---Decision-Sciences--Remote-Capable-_R-69755
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@knutson_brain @Andrewpapale @tdverstynen
3/3 But it may also be time to incorporate #sociology studies of world-understanding and news gathering into decision theory practical consequences.
To my knowledge there isn't a strong connection between people studying these consequences of #propaganda and #news eco-systems with modern theories of #DecisionMaking and #DecisionScience.
But if anyone is interested, please reach out to me. It is something I'm very interested in pursuing. #ChangingHowWeChoose
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@knutson_brain @Andrewpapale @tdverstynen
3/3 But it may also be time to incorporate #sociology studies of world-understanding and news gathering into decision theory practical consequences.
To my knowledge there isn't a strong connection between people studying these consequences of #propaganda and #news eco-systems with modern theories of #DecisionMaking and #DecisionScience.
But if anyone is interested, please reach out to me. It is something I'm very interested in pursuing. #ChangingHowWeChoose
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Excited to share YEARS of research about how to get people to think reflectively and how reflection impacts philosophical judgments at the 2025 #APA in #NewYorkCity (January 8 to 11): https://www.apaonline.org/mpage/2025eastern
Can't make it?
- More about my talk: https://researchgate.net/publication/370132037
- More about my poster: https://researchgate.net/publication/371248872Thanks to the #APA, James Beebe, and the Experimental Philosophy Society for the opportunity!
#decisionScience #philosophy #xPhi #epistemology #bioethics #cognitiveScience #mTurk #Prolific #UniversityParticipants #surveyMethods #DualProcessTheory
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Excited to share YEARS of research about how to get people to think reflectively and how reflection impacts philosophical judgments at the 2025 #APA in #NewYorkCity (January 8 to 11): https://www.apaonline.org/mpage/2025eastern
Can't make it?
- More about my talk: https://researchgate.net/publication/370132037
- More about my poster: https://researchgate.net/publication/371248872Thanks to the #APA, James Beebe, and the Experimental Philosophy Society for the opportunity!
#decisionScience #philosophy #xPhi #epistemology #bioethics #cognitiveScience #mTurk #Prolific #UniversityParticipants #surveyMethods #DualProcessTheory
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Suppose you ask kids about their school work *while they work on it*: will it help or hurt their learning?
Asking fifth graders about their reading or math improved pre- v. post-test learning, compared to not asking (Ns > 350):
#OpenAccess paper: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e40055
#edu #reflectiveThinking #consciousnessResearch #decisionScience #developmentalPsychology #metacognition
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Suppose you ask kids about their school work *while they work on it*: will it help or hurt their learning?
Asking fifth graders about their reading or math improved pre- v. post-test learning, compared to not asking (Ns > 350):
#OpenAccess paper: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e40055
#edu #reflectiveThinking #consciousnessResearch #decisionScience #developmentalPsychology #metacognition
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ICYMI: a large language model was better at diagnosis than doctors? 🧐
...and letting the doctors use the large language model didn't improve doctor's diagnoses?! 😬
#OpenAccess article in #JAMA: https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.40969
#medicine #AI #LLM #edu #HCI #UX #logic #criticalThinking #decisionScience #computerScience #psychology #epistemology
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ICYMI: a large language model was better at diagnosis than doctors? 🧐
...and letting the doctors use the large language model didn't improve doctor's diagnoses?! 😬
#OpenAccess article in #JAMA: https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.40969
#medicine #AI #LLM #edu #HCI #UX #logic #criticalThinking #decisionScience #computerScience #psychology #epistemology
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A #health literacy intervention reduced the perceived accuracy of inaccurate #cancer headlines ...as well as *accurate* headlines.
Cheers to the authors and the journal for publishing this less-than-encouraging result: https://doi.org/10.1093/abm/kaae054
Looks like prior (rather than new) beliefs about cancer were the primary predictors of discernment about cancer headlines.
#medicine #education #oncology #journalism #psychology #decisionScience #bioethics
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A #health literacy intervention reduced the perceived accuracy of inaccurate #cancer headlines ...as well as *accurate* headlines.
Cheers to the authors and the journal for publishing this less-than-encouraging result: https://doi.org/10.1093/abm/kaae054
Looks like prior (rather than new) beliefs about cancer were the primary predictors of discernment about cancer headlines.
#medicine #education #oncology #journalism #psychology #decisionScience #bioethics
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Which subreddits score higher on deliberation metrics?
A new metric of deliberation (designed to overcome prior issues) found that the following subreddits had the highest deliberation scores (across 72 subreddits)
- Subreddits that are based on geographical regions
- Political subreddits
- Sports subredditshttps://arxiv.org/abs/2410.21996
#socialMedia #Reddit #publicDiscourse #decisionScience #corpusAnalysis #NLP #statistics
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Which subreddits score higher on deliberation metrics?
A new metric of deliberation (designed to overcome prior issues) found that the following subreddits had the highest deliberation scores (across 72 subreddits)
- Subreddits that are based on geographical regions
- Political subreddits
- Sports subredditshttps://arxiv.org/abs/2410.21996
#socialMedia #Reddit #publicDiscourse #decisionScience #corpusAnalysis #NLP #statistics
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Reflective thinking often improves judgment and decisions, but across three experiments reflective thinking didn't seem to predict FEELING better about one's decision: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1930297500009414
This may help explain why we so often underrate reflective thinking.
#logic #criticalThinking #decisionScience #epistemology #xPhi #psychology
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Emotion can inhibit reflective thinking, but are all emotions equally inhibitory?
Reflective thinking was inhibited more by a video designed to elicit disgust than a video designed to elicit fear/thrill (among about 50 people who completed 60 reflection tests): https://doi.org/10.2147/PRBM.S471624
#decisionScience #psychology #criticalThinking #emotion #logic #rationality #epistemology
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Filed under #AI overhype:
#LLMs perform near perfectly on common reflection tests, but slightly altering the #math caused LLMs to fail, suggesting the best models (including #OpenAI's o1) are not great at reflective, mathematical reasoning.
V1 of #preprint: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5273334/v1
#tech #edu #math #assessment #psychology #teaching #psychometrics #decisionScience
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More successful predictions of my #BoundedReflectivism & #EpistemicIdentity article from 2022?
From about 2017 or 2018, I reviewed evidence suggesting that reflective thinking often helps, but may even hinder our judgment depending on factors like whether we are reasoning based on shared identities and epistemic standards (https://doi.org/10.1111/meta.12534).
Years later Robb Willer et al. solicited ideas for debiasing political judgments. After years of testing 25 different interventions, their results are published in #Science: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adh4764
They found that biased evaluations of politicized facts were impacted by both
- REFLECTION (on potential misperceptions of undemocratic actions) and
- shared IDENTITY cues (which could help *or* hinder!)#decisionScience #politics #psychology #philosophy #epistemology #metaphilosophy #JDM #debiasing #chatBot
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Turns out large language models also exhibit "groupthink", but uncertainty doesn't seem to help them mitigate it.
What can you do about it?
1. Increase diversity (via Devil's Advocacy)
2. Reduce redundancies (via Distillation)Free paper via @tomstafford et al.: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2410.12428
#AI #LLM #Tech #decisionScience #psychology #epistemology #xPhi #logic #CriticalThinking
