#carringtonevent — Public Fediverse posts

Solar Storm?

The risk of solar storms for humans living on the Moon is much greater than for those safely living on Earth under Earth’s protective magnetic field.

https://youtu.be/WxwraWIOSYs

Oh, Angry is concerned with the satellites that can be replaced…but will cause more grief and concern, because we aren’t living in caves anymore. Most of you live in a world where smartphones and advanced technologies wouldn’t work without satellites.
‘Read my past comment about how a massive solar flare could affect the electric power supply, but what are the chances of Earth being struck by a massive solar flare?’

https://thenewmars.wordpress.com/?s=massive+solar+flare

Prompt Gemini:
get_youtube_content: Video Link
Full Transcript.

Prompt Bonsai 27B, after pasting the transcript:
1. Review the video in under 500 words and recap key points.
2. Research reports on the chance of, and dangers of, solar storms killing humans on Earth or astronauts on the Moon.
3. Explain how and why ignoring the risks of solar storms risks human lives and livelihoods.
4. Provide your opinion as an Advanced AI Scientist for a Futurist.

Bonsai 27B Said:
🌍 SOLAR STORM RISK ANALYSIS: A FUTURIST ASSESSMENT

1. VIDEO RECAP

Core Thesis: NASA Goddard research reveals Earth’s magnetosphere has no saturation safety valve—geomagnetic response scales linearly with solar storm intensity, making Carrington-class events potentially catastrophic for modern civilization. The apparent flattening in historical data was a statistical illusion caused by measurement noise and propagation delays between L1 and Earth.

Key Findings:

• The Myth of Saturation: Historical storms appeared to flatten because satellites at 1.5 million km (L1) measured delayed, noisy plasma evolution. Correcting for this bias reveals a strictly linear response—no natural upper bound exists.
• LEO Threat: Mega-constellations face simultaneous threats: atmospheric drag burning up fuel budgets, electronic failure from induced currents, and cascading Kessler Syndrome debris collisions that could lock humanity out of space for decades.
• Ground Infrastructure: Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) can saturate transformers, causing multi-month blackouts. Lloyd’s estimates: $600B–$2.6T in damages, 20M–40M without power for weeks to years.
• Action Plan: Install ~$4B worth of capacitive neutral-blocking devices on critical US transformers; enforce international regulations limiting LEO satellite density and mandating automated collision avoidance, radiation hardening, and rapid de-orbit during solar alerts.

2. RESEARCH REPORTS: PROBABILITY & DANGERS

Probability Estimates for Extreme Events

Critical Uncertainty: Solar cycle maximum duration is projected to last only 15–36 more years (Abreu et al. 2008). If a grand minimum follows, CME frequency drops but galactic cosmic ray exposure increases—posing elevated risks for astronauts and aviation crews.

Dangers by Domain

• Power Grids: GICs cause transformer saturation and physical damage; replacements take months/years to produce. Quebec 1989 outage: 6M people affected, $27M damages.
• Satellites & Communications: CME impacts damage electronics; undersea cables may be fried by induced currents; GPS navigation could fail globally during extreme events.
• Aviation: Polar flight paths face communication disruption and radiation exposure; extreme storms could force transpolar reroutes or groundings.
• Astronauts: Beyond Earth’s magnetosphere, astronauts face acute radiation sickness from solar proton events (SPEs) and long-term cancer risks from galactic cosmic rays during solar minima.

3. WHY IGNORING RISKS ENDANGERS LIVES & LIVELIHOODS

The Multiplier Effect: Modern civilization is hyper-dependent on interconnected infrastructure—power grids, digital networks, supply chains, financial systems. A Carrington-level event doesn’t just cause isolated blackouts; it creates systemic cascades:

• Power loss → water pumps fail → food/water shortages
• GPS disruption → aviation groundings, logistics collapse, timing system failures across banking and energy markets
• Satellite comms failure → emergency coordination paralysis during secondary disasters

Temporal Scale of Destruction: Unlike hurricanes (days), geomagnetic damage can persist for weeks to months. During winter, this translates to potential mass fatalities from cold exposure. Recovery costs—transformer replacements alone in the US would take 20+ years to complete based on current production capacity.

The Asymmetric Risk Profile: Solar storms are global, but impacts are regional (amplified near poles). However, financial systems and digital infrastructure are truly global. A blackout in a major corridor like Washington-D.C./New York affects international trade, financial markets, and supply chains worldwide. Unlike localized disasters, there is no geographic escape route from systemic collapse.

4. ADVANCED AI SCIENTIST OPINION: FUTURIST PERSPECTIVE

Assessment: The risk is non-zero but low-probability/high-impact—the classic “black swan” scenario that demands asymmetric preparation due to irreversible consequences.

Strategic Recommendations:

1. Infrastructure Hardening is Non-Negotiable: Capacitive neutral blocking devices are a one-time investment with high ROI. If we assume 12% probability over a decade, and damages exceed $600B, the expected value of inaction vastly exceeds mitigation costs (~$4B). This is basic risk economics.
2. Space Stewardship Over Prevention: Rather than banning LEO mega-constellations, implement science-based density limits with mandatory collision avoidance systems, radiation-hardened components, and rapid de-orbit capabilities during solar alerts. The goal isn’t to remove space infrastructure but to make it resilient.
3. Predictive Capabilities: Space weather forecasting is ~50 years behind terrestrial forecasting. Investing in L1 Lagrange point monitoring (SWFO-L1) and Parker Solar Probe data utilization will be critical for early warning. A 24–72 hour warning window could allow grid operators to load batteries, reroute traffic, and protect sensitive infrastructure.
4. The Paradox of Solar Activity: An active solar cycle protects astronauts from galactic cosmic rays (the “sunny side”), but increases CME risk. Future Mars missions should be scheduled during solar maximum—counterintuitive but scientifically sound. For Earth dwellers, the net benefit is minimal compared to risks.
5. Policy Must Be Proactive, Not Reactive: Current grid hardening efforts target moderate storms (1989 event class), not Carrington-scale events. Regulatory frameworks need to mandate GIC-resistant transformer designs and real-time monitoring networks at scale.

Final Judgment: The risk is small but existential. We should treat it like nuclear safety: not with panic, but with rigorous engineering standards, continuous preparedness, and international coordination. The alternative—waiting for the next Carrington event to force reactive measures—is profoundly irrational from both an economic and humanitarian standpoint.

How Space Weather Could Bust The AI Boom
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https://spacenews.com/how-space-weather-could-bust-the-ai-boom/ <-- shared technical article
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https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-data-centers-electric-grid-meltdown <-- shared technical article, “AI Data Centers Pushing Electric Grid Into Meltdown”
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https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-032524-012356 <-- shared 2026 paper, “Magnetic Storms and Geoelectric Hazards”
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#AI #datcenters #infrastructure #impacts #solarstorms #spaceweather #risk #hazards #overloading #electricity #energy #powersupply #energygrid #vulnerable #transmission #energy #demand #consumers #geoelectrical #geomagnetism #blackout #damage #cost #economics #equipment #transformers #carringtonevent #NERC #grid #reliability #electricaldemand #utilities #magneticstorm #electromagneticinduction #extremeevent #historicalevent #hazardanalysis #spaceweather #history #Carrington #geoelectric #humanimpacts #risk #hazard #monitoring #network #geology #geomagnetism #impedance #rock #soil #utilities #electricaltransmission #powerlines #magnetotelluric #sensor #blackout #brownout #energy #geoelectrichazard #geoelectric #GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #model #modeling #geomagnetism #geomagneticstorm #telecommunication #electronics #hardened #geography #mitigation #preparedness #geomorphology #geomorphometry #surfacegeology #cost #economics #disaster #impacts #technology #InternetOfThings #internet #USA #review #CONUS #numericalmodeling #realtimemonitoring #AIBoom #Bust
@North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC)

Record #SolarSuperstorm shrank Earth’s plasma shield 78%, #GPS at risk

Story by Alexander Clark, 12/1/2025

Excerpt: "Why this storm is a warning shot for the #SatelliteEconomy

"Even without a total collapse of the magnetosphere, the recent superstorm delivered a clear warning to the satellite industry. Constellations in low Earth orbit [#LEO], such as #SpaceX’s #Starlink or #OneWeb, already have to contend with atmospheric drag and radiation, but they usually operate well inside the magnetosphere’s protection. When the plasma shield shrinks, those satellites face a double challenge: increased drag from a heated upper atmosphere and a more hostile radiation environment that can degrade electronics and solar panels. The event that compressed Earth’s shield by nearly 80 percent effectively stress-tested the assumptions behind the rapid expansion of commercial space infrastructure, a point underscored in analyses of how a solar storm can threaten satellites when the magnetosphere is squeezed.

"For operators of navigation, communications, and Earth observation satellites in higher orbits, the implications are even more direct. Many of these spacecraft were designed based on historical records of geomagnetic storms that did not include such extreme compression of the magnetosphere, which means their shielding, redundancy, and fault management systems may not fully account for the conditions seen in this event. As I look at the trajectory of the satellite economy, with thousands of new platforms planned for launch in the coming years, the lesson is clear: space weather resilience can no longer be treated as a niche concern. It has to be built into hardware design, constellation architecture, and operational playbooks from the start, or the next superstorm could turn a profitable orbital network into a liability overnight.

"Preparing for the next superstorm in a crowded sky

"The recent compression of Earth’s plasma shield did not trigger the kind of global blackout or navigation collapse that worst-case scenarios envision, but it came close enough to expose the seams in current preparedness. Space weather forecasting has improved, yet the lead times and confidence levels are still limited, especially for the most extreme events. To protect GPS, power grids, and other critical systems, operators need not just alerts that a storm is coming but actionable guidance on how severe the magnetospheric compression is likely to be, which orbits will be most exposed, and how long the elevated risk will last, insights that depend on the kind of multi-satellite observations and modeling showcased in the reconstruction of this storm.

"As I weigh the evidence, the path forward looks less like a single technological fix and more like a layered strategy. That means hardening satellites and ground infrastructure against radiation and induced currents, building redundancy into navigation and timing systems so that GPS is not a single point of failure, and integrating space weather scenarios into everything from grid planning to aviation routing. It also means improving public communication so that when the next superstorm hits, people understand both the seriousness of a 78 percent shrinkage of Earth’s plasma shield and the practical steps being taken to manage the risk. The recent event was a vivid reminder that our digital civilization is built inside a magnetic cocoon that can flex and falter, and that planning for those moments is no longer optional."

Read more:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/record-superstorm-shrank-earth-s-plasma-shield-78-gps-at-risk/ar-AA1RvRy2?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=692e27870291497eb907556f3dfde189&ei=10

#SolarSuperstorm #SolarFlares #Magnetosphere #MagnetosphericCompression #Satellites #SpaceIndustry #DarkSkies #SpaceJunk #InternetOutages #KesslerSyndrome #CarringtonEvent #SystemVulnerabilities #ConnectedGrids #TechDisruption #DisruptiveTechnology
#Landlines #TechVulnerability

This article does not mention common sense stuff -- like making printed copies of important documents, storing data on external hard drives, or having a Ham radios and/or walkie talkies or mesh networks!

Experts Warn The #Internet Will Go Down In A Big Way — And You'd Better Be Ready

Story by Geoff Williams, 9/23/2025

"It’s bad enough when the internet goes down for a few hours because your power went out after a storm, but what if the internet went down indefinitely, sort of everywhere? What if your state or an entire region of the country lacked the internet or electricity because of a cyberattack or something innocuous, like problems with an aging grid or the federal government forgot to pay a bill?"

Read more (pretty lame -- reads like a #Starlink advert):
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/experts-warn-the-internet-will-go-down-in-a-big-way-and-you-d-better-be-ready/ar-AA1N8R1x?ocid=winp2fptaskbarhoverent&cvid=68d30a5c5f7c45d5a5daae8e70321664&ei=24

#InternetOutages #KesslerSyndrome #CarringtonEvent #cyberattacks #1000SIMCards #CyberAttacks #SystemVulnerabilities #ConnectedGrids #TechDisruption #DisruptiveTechnology
#Landlines #TechVulnerability #OneThousandSIMCards #Malware #Stuxnet

[May be behind a paywall] The Strongest #SolarStorm in 20 Years Did Little Damage, but Worse #SpaceWeather Is Coming

Years of careful planning helped safeguard against last weekend’s severe space weather, but we still don’t know how we’d cope with a monster event

By Jonathan O'Callaghan & Lee Billings
May 16, 2024

"For years, we have been warned about impending doom from the sun. If pointed in our direction, powerful eruptions of radiation and plasma from our star can strike our planet to supercharge Earth’s atmosphere and magnetic field, effectively hitting a global 'reset' button on much of our #ModernTechnology. A sufficiently intense bombardment could raise a #Geomagneticstorm that would push satellites out of orbit, short out submarine cables that suture together the #Internet and plunge the world into darkness with massive #blackouts from collapsed #PowerGrids. Yet this past weekend, when one of the strongest solar outbursts in 20 years blasted our planet, we managed to emerge unscathed thanks to years of careful public and private planning.

"The storm has ebbed, although the solar region that sparked it has since spat out additional monstrous flares—fortunately no longer targeted at Earth because of the sun’s spin [which will change in a short time, as that spot will once again be Earth-facing]. But while we’ve passed our biggest test yet, experts say now is not the time to let down our guard: the question of more cataclysmic solar activity isn’t a matter of 'if' but 'when.'

"'This is a success story,' says Shawn Dahl, a space weather forecaster at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s [#NOAA] Space Weather Prediction Center (#SWPC) in Boulder, Colo., but the weekend’s storm was 'nowhere close' to the strength of more powerful known historical events. Is it time to put our feet up? 'Heck no,' he says.

"On May 8, after ground- and space-based telescopes detected multiple explosive outbursts from the sun headed for Earth, the SWPC issued a warning of an imminent severe space weather event. At least seven of these outbursts, known as coronal mass ejections, or #CMEs, walloped our planet with billions of tons of solar plasma—an interplanetary punch that left Earth’s magnetic field ringing and made the upper atmosphere swell, almost as if bruised. The resulting geomagnetic storm was the most severe since 2003. It posed potentially grave dangers to global infrastructure while also bathing much of the world in achingly beautiful #auroral displays.

"At present, it’s difficult to say just how close we came to catastrophe because many companies— from grid controllers to satellite operators—do not like to reveal information on how a geomagnetic storm affected them, says Daniel Welling, a climate and space scientist at the University of Michigan. "'They don’t want to look like they’re vulnerable,' he says. 'Satellite operators have to insure their spacecraft, and that can be very expensive.' Yet various scattered reports are already offering some insight into the storm’s disruptive effects. Flight trackers showed airlines rerouting planes to avoid Earth’s poles, where crews and passengers would have been exposed to worrisome spikes in #CosmicRadiation from the storm. Transpower, New Zealand’s state-owned enterprise running that nation’s electric power, said in a statement that it had preemptively 'switched off some circuits across the country on Saturday [May 11],' and as a result, there was 'no impact on New Zealand’s electricity supply.' In Minnesota, the firm Minnesota Power opened capacitor banks to deal with possible effects from the storm. Similar precautions were likely taken at other power grids around the world, too, although the lack of information makes it 'tremendously' difficult to know how effective those measures were, Welling says.

"Geomagnetic storms can also play havoc with signals from #GPS satellites, and multiple farmers reported issues with GPS-guided farming equipment over the weekend. In South Dakota, one farmer’s tractor started #DrivingInCircles during the storm, and multiple farmers reported outages on social media. 'Our GPS on both the planter and the strip tiller were absolutely bonkers today,' one commenter wrote on Reddit. 'I saw this post and looked ... no GPS,' said another. LandMark Implement, a John Deere dealership based in Nebraska and Kansas, texted its customers an advisory to 'turn off' GPS devices on their farming equipment. 'The base stations were sending out corrections that have been affected by the geomagnetic storm and were causing drastic shifts in the field,' the company noted in an online post. LandMark declined to comment further when contacted.

"The storm posed hazards in space as well. Seven astronauts on the International Space Station were mostly safe from the storm’s effects, #NASA said, but did have to take some precautions. 'The crew was told to avoid lower-shielded areas of the space station out of an abundance of caution,' says Sandra Jones, a spokesperson for NASA’s Johnson Space Center. 'Certain areas provide less protection from radiation, such as the air lock, while other areas, such as crew quarters, provide enhanced protection. The crew was never in any danger, and the energy levels have since decreased.' Other satellite operators experienced greater difficulties. One company in the U.K., Sen, which streams 4K video from a satellite in low-Earth orbit, chose to power down its spacecraft for four days to prevent any damage from the storm, such as fried circuit boards or electronic failures. 'It was in an idle mode,' says Marcin Bujar, spacecraft operations lead at Sen. 'We just kept the bare minimum on—the flight computer and radio receiver.' This prevented the satellite from carrying out some tasks, including planned observations of flooding in South America and wildfires in Canada. 'It definitely had an impact,' Bujar says."

Read more:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-strongest-solar-storm-in-20-years-did-little-damage-but-worse-space/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us

#SolarCycle25 #CarringtonEvent #SolarFlares #Auroras

YIKES! You think #ATTOutage is bad? Wait'll #CarringtonEvent hits! Followed by #KesslerEffect, 'cuz satellites damaged by #SolarFlares will collide!

via #SolarHam

Flare Events (M2+) Past 48 Hours | Event Report | Top Solar Flares

X1.9
3590

X1.7
3590

M4.8
3590

X6.3
3590

Current Solar Flare Threat
C-Flare: 99%
M-Flare: 55%
X-Flare: 20%
Proton: 10%

Source:
https://www.solarham.net/

#SolarFlares #SolarCycle25 #XFlares