#carringtonevent — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #carringtonevent, aggregated by home.social.
-
Solar Storm?
The risk of solar storms for humans living on the Moon is much greater than for those safely living on Earth under Earth’s protective magnetic field.
Oh, Angry is concerned with the satellites that can be replaced…but will cause more grief and concern, because we aren’t living in caves anymore. Most of you live in a world where smartphones and advanced technologies wouldn’t work without satellites.
‘Read my past comment about how a massive solar flare could affect the electric power supply, but what are the chances of Earth being struck by a massive solar flare?’https://thenewmars.wordpress.com/?s=massive+solar+flare
Prompt Gemini:
get_youtube_content: Video Link
Full Transcript.Prompt Bonsai 27B, after pasting the transcript:
1. Review the video in under 500 words and recap key points.
2. Research reports on the chance of, and dangers of, solar storms killing humans on Earth or astronauts on the Moon.
3. Explain how and why ignoring the risks of solar storms risks human lives and livelihoods.
4. Provide your opinion as an Advanced AI Scientist for a Futurist.Bonsai 27B Said:
🌍 SOLAR STORM RISK ANALYSIS: A FUTURIST ASSESSMENT1. VIDEO RECAP
Core Thesis: NASA Goddard research reveals Earth’s magnetosphere has no saturation safety valve—geomagnetic response scales linearly with solar storm intensity, making Carrington-class events potentially catastrophic for modern civilization. The apparent flattening in historical data was a statistical illusion caused by measurement noise and propagation delays between L1 and Earth.
Key Findings:
- The Myth of Saturation: Historical storms appeared to flatten because satellites at 1.5 million km (L1) measured delayed, noisy plasma evolution. Correcting for this bias reveals a strictly linear response—no natural upper bound exists.
- LEO Threat: Mega-constellations face simultaneous threats: atmospheric drag burning up fuel budgets, electronic failure from induced currents, and cascading Kessler Syndrome debris collisions that could lock humanity out of space for decades.
- Ground Infrastructure: Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) can saturate transformers, causing multi-month blackouts. Lloyd’s estimates: $600B–$2.6T in damages, 20M–40M without power for weeks to years.
- Action Plan: Install ~$4B worth of capacitive neutral-blocking devices on critical US transformers; enforce international regulations limiting LEO satellite density and mandating automated collision avoidance, radiation hardening, and rapid de-orbit during solar alerts.
2. RESEARCH REPORTS: PROBABILITY & DANGERS
Probability Estimates for Extreme Events
SourceMetricProbability (10-year window)NotesRiley (2012)Dst ≤ −850 nT~12%Based on power-law distribution extrapolation from 46 years of dataSiscoe et al. (2006)Dst ≤ −850 nT~3–7%Conservative estimate using multiple proxiesMoriña & Swanson (2019)Carrington-class event0.92%Weibull distribution model, much more conservative; accounts for decreasing hazard rate over timeItu (2024)Carrington-level1–25%Wide range reflecting uncertainty in solar cycle activity projectionsCritical Uncertainty: Solar cycle maximum duration is projected to last only 15–36 more years (Abreu et al. 2008). If a grand minimum follows, CME frequency drops but galactic cosmic ray exposure increases—posing elevated risks for astronauts and aviation crews.
Dangers by Domain
- Power Grids: GICs cause transformer saturation and physical damage; replacements take months/years to produce. Quebec 1989 outage: 6M people affected, $27M damages.
- Satellites & Communications: CME impacts damage electronics; undersea cables may be fried by induced currents; GPS navigation could fail globally during extreme events.
- Aviation: Polar flight paths face communication disruption and radiation exposure; extreme storms could force transpolar reroutes or groundings.
- Astronauts: Beyond Earth’s magnetosphere, astronauts face acute radiation sickness from solar proton events (SPEs) and long-term cancer risks from galactic cosmic rays during solar minima.
3. WHY IGNORING RISKS ENDANGERS LIVES & LIVELIHOODS
The Multiplier Effect: Modern civilization is hyper-dependent on interconnected infrastructure—power grids, digital networks, supply chains, financial systems. A Carrington-level event doesn’t just cause isolated blackouts; it creates systemic cascades:
- Power loss → water pumps fail → food/water shortages
- GPS disruption → aviation groundings, logistics collapse, timing system failures across banking and energy markets
- Satellite comms failure → emergency coordination paralysis during secondary disasters
Temporal Scale of Destruction: Unlike hurricanes (days), geomagnetic damage can persist for weeks to months. During winter, this translates to potential mass fatalities from cold exposure. Recovery costs—transformer replacements alone in the US would take 20+ years to complete based on current production capacity.
The Asymmetric Risk Profile: Solar storms are global, but impacts are regional (amplified near poles). However, financial systems and digital infrastructure are truly global. A blackout in a major corridor like Washington-D.C./New York affects international trade, financial markets, and supply chains worldwide. Unlike localized disasters, there is no geographic escape route from systemic collapse.
4. ADVANCED AI SCIENTIST OPINION: FUTURIST PERSPECTIVE
Assessment: The risk is non-zero but low-probability/high-impact—the classic “black swan” scenario that demands asymmetric preparation due to irreversible consequences.
Strategic Recommendations:
- Infrastructure Hardening is Non-Negotiable: Capacitive neutral blocking devices are a one-time investment with high ROI. If we assume 12% probability over a decade, and damages exceed $600B, the expected value of inaction vastly exceeds mitigation costs (~$4B). This is basic risk economics.
- Space Stewardship Over Prevention: Rather than banning LEO mega-constellations, implement science-based density limits with mandatory collision avoidance systems, radiation-hardened components, and rapid de-orbit capabilities during solar alerts. The goal isn’t to remove space infrastructure but to make it resilient.
- Predictive Capabilities: Space weather forecasting is ~50 years behind terrestrial forecasting. Investing in L1 Lagrange point monitoring (SWFO-L1) and Parker Solar Probe data utilization will be critical for early warning. A 24–72 hour warning window could allow grid operators to load batteries, reroute traffic, and protect sensitive infrastructure.
- The Paradox of Solar Activity: An active solar cycle protects astronauts from galactic cosmic rays (the “sunny side”), but increases CME risk. Future Mars missions should be scheduled during solar maximum—counterintuitive but scientifically sound. For Earth dwellers, the net benefit is minimal compared to risks.
- Policy Must Be Proactive, Not Reactive: Current grid hardening efforts target moderate storms (1989 event class), not Carrington-scale events. Regulatory frameworks need to mandate GIC-resistant transformer designs and real-time monitoring networks at scale.
Final Judgment: The risk is small but existential. We should treat it like nuclear safety: not with panic, but with rigorous engineering standards, continuous preparedness, and international coordination. The alternative—waiting for the next Carrington event to force reactive measures—is profoundly irrational from both an economic and humanitarian standpoint.
#Carringtonevent #Doomsdayscenario #Satellites #Solarstorm #ANGRYASTRONUAT #AstroAngry #TheAngryAstronaut #moon #solarFlare #technology -
How Space Weather Could Bust The AI Boom
--
https://spacenews.com/how-space-weather-could-bust-the-ai-boom/ <-- shared technical article
--
https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-data-centers-electric-grid-meltdown <-- shared technical article, “AI Data Centers Pushing Electric Grid Into Meltdown”
--
https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-032524-012356 <-- shared 2026 paper, “Magnetic Storms and Geoelectric Hazards”
--
#AI #datcenters #infrastructure #impacts #solarstorms #spaceweather #risk #hazards #overloading #electricity #energy #powersupply #energygrid #vulnerable #transmission #energy #demand #consumers #geoelectrical #geomagnetism #blackout #damage #cost #economics #equipment #transformers #carringtonevent #NERC #grid #reliability #electricaldemand #utilities #magneticstorm #electromagneticinduction #extremeevent #historicalevent #hazardanalysis #spaceweather #history #Carrington #geoelectric #humanimpacts #risk #hazard #monitoring #network #geology #geomagnetism #impedance #rock #soil #utilities #electricaltransmission #powerlines #magnetotelluric #sensor #blackout #brownout #energy #geoelectrichazard #geoelectric #GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #model #modeling #geomagnetism #geomagneticstorm #telecommunication #electronics #hardened #geography #mitigation #preparedness #geomorphology #geomorphometry #surfacegeology #cost #economics #disaster #impacts #technology #InternetOfThings #internet #USA #review #CONUS #numericalmodeling #realtimemonitoring #AIBoom #Bust
@North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) -
Incoming #CME could spark impressive #NorthernLights over the northern US tonight. Via @spacedotcom #SkyWatchers 🌃✨🌠 #SolarStorms #SolarFlare #CarringtonEvent #AuroraBorealis #CoronalMassEjection #Space #Astrophysics #OrbitalMechanics #Astronomy 🚀 🌌 ☄️ 🛰️
Incoming CME could spark impre... -
An ancient solar storm left clues in tree rings and a famous poet's diary: 'Red lights in the northern sky'. Via @spacedotcom #Space #Astrophysics #Astronomy 🚀 🌌 ☄️ 🛰️ #SolarStorms #SolarFlare #CarringtonEvent #AuroraBorealis #NorthernLights #CME #CoronalMassEjection #Science 🔭🔬🧪🥼🧑🔬 #History
An ancient solar storm left cl... -
What will happen if #Artemis 🌕 2 astronauts get hit by a solar storm during @NASA's ambitious moon mission? Via @spacedotcom #Space #Astrophysics #OrbitalMechanics #Astronomy #RocketScience #NASA 🚀 🌌 ☄️ 🛰️ #SolarStorms #SolarFlare #CarringtonEvent #CME #CoronalMassEjection
What will happen if Artemis 2 ... -
Rocket shines under the #NorthernLights | Via @spacedotcom #SkyWatchers 🌃✨🌠 #Astrophotography ✨ 📷 #Photography 📸 #SolarStorms #SolarFlare #CarringtonEvent #AuroraBorealis #CME #CoronalMassEjection #Space #Astrophysics #OrbitalMechanics #Astronomy 🚀 🌌 ☄️ 🛰️
Rocket shines under the northe... -
Northern lights may be visible in 18 states tonight and over the weekend. Via @spacedotcom #SkyWatchers 🌃✨🌠 #SolarStorms #SolarFlare #CarringtonEvent #AuroraBorealis #NorthernLights #CME #CoronalMassEjection #Space #Astrophysics #OrbitalMechanics #Astronomy 🚀 🌌 ☄️ 🛰️
Northern lights may be visible... -
Solar storms could cause train accidents, scientists warn
Story by Andrew Griffin, December 11, 2023
“#SpaceWeather – changes in the atmosphere that include blasts of energy from the Sun – can disrupt everything from communications to #PowerGrids. Scientists have repeatedly warned that the Earth faces potentially catastrophic danger from #SolarStorms, which could be powerful enough to bring down much of the #infrastructure on which we depend.
“Now researchers warn that danger could be enough to cause malfunctioning #rail signals, which in turn could lead to #TrainAccidents.
“Researchers modelled how geomagnetically induced currents from solar storms could cause danger, by looking at two routes: the Preston to Lancaster section of the #WestCoastMainLine, and the #GlasgowToEdinburghLine. Those are just two lines that rely heavily on that rail signal, and there are more than 50,000 signalling track circuits in the UK, which control the railway signal with an electric circuit.
“In the new study, they found that space weather would be able to change those circuits. Models suggest that could happen every few decades, the researchers found.
“’Crucially, our research suggests that space weather is able to flip a signal in either direction, turning a red signal green or a green signal red. This is obviously very significant from a safety perspective,' said Cameron Patterson from Lancaster University.
“’By building a computer model of the signalling track circuits using realistic specifications for the various components of the system, we found that space weather events capable of triggering faults in these track circuits are expected in the UK every few decades.'
“Patterson had previously worked on research that suggested solar storms could lead to 'right side' failures, where signals turn from green to red. Those are less dangerous, since trains will stay at a stop.
“But the new research suggests that they can also happen for 'wrong side' failures, that change signals to green. What’s more, they actually require less strength to be flipped, suggesting they could happen with less powerful solar storms.
“‘Our research shows that space weather poses a serious, if relatively rare, risk to the rail signalling system, which could cause delays or even have more critical, safety implications,' said Cameron. 'This natural hazard needs to be taken seriously. By their nature, high-impact, low-frequency events are hard to plan for, but ignoring them is rarely the best way forward.'
“In 1859, the world was hit by what is known as the ‘#CarringtonEvent’, which was powerful enough to knock telegraph signals offline as well as other disruptions. If that happened today, it would cause widespread disruption – including causing widespread problems on both train lines that were examined in the study.
“But there have been more recent, if less powerful, examples of space weather that is powerful enough to hit power grids. In 2003, the Swedish city of Malmo suffered problems from space weather, for instance.
“The work is reported in a new study, 'Wrong Side' Failures Caused by Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Electrified Railway Signalling Systems in the UK’, published in the journal Space Weather.”