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#carringtonevent — Public Fediverse posts

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  1. @screwturn TLDR? Don't burn books.

    First: have you heard of the Carrington event? TLDR: in 200 years of measuring the largest solar radiation event so far would be energetic enough to wipe information and destroy devices. Do we get another this year, or will it be another 200? We cannot know! But books will be fine. [Edit: also CDs. So Nirvana wouldn't be lost, I guess?]

    Also even in the short term, early results regarding writing pen or pencil in hand, and reading book in hand, show nonzero benefit.

    Regarding reliability, neither will reliably survive a bathtub incident, but the most battered paperback communicates as well as new (or better, if there are underlines, highlights, or notes!) and never needs an update, recharge, reload, new screen.

    As @kimlockhartga said there are unexpected benefits from physically-bound objects. Libraries have infinitely-useful librarians, and (most) being topically ordered makes spine browsing within a subject highly valuable. Bookstores are cultural hubs of a sort, and second-hand bookstores are a local snapshot of what the community reads filtered by what the bookstore procurers appreciate or see market value in.

    You can gauge how much people like the idea of sending books "the way of clay tablets" by the nearly universal reaction to videos of book spines sliced off to be scanned for AI and then pulped.

    #CarringtonEvent #books

  2. Solar Storm?

    The risk of solar storms for humans living on the Moon is much greater than for those safely living on Earth under Earth’s protective magnetic field.

    https://youtu.be/WxwraWIOSYs

    Oh, Angry is concerned with the satellites that can be replaced…but will cause more grief and concern, because we aren’t living in caves anymore. Most of you live in a world where smartphones and advanced technologies wouldn’t work without satellites.
    ‘Read my past comment about how a massive solar flare could affect the electric power supply, but what are the chances of Earth being struck by a massive solar flare?’

    https://thenewmars.wordpress.com/?s=massive+solar+flare

    Prompt Gemini:
    get_youtube_content: Video Link
    Full Transcript.

    Prompt Bonsai 27B, after pasting the transcript:
    1. Review the video in under 500 words and recap key points.
    2. Research reports on the chance of, and dangers of, solar storms killing humans on Earth or astronauts on the Moon.
    3. Explain how and why ignoring the risks of solar storms risks human lives and livelihoods.
    4. Provide your opinion as an Advanced AI Scientist for a Futurist.

    Bonsai 27B Said:
    🌍 SOLAR STORM RISK ANALYSIS: A FUTURIST ASSESSMENT

    1. VIDEO RECAP

    Core Thesis: NASA Goddard research reveals Earth’s magnetosphere has no saturation safety valve—geomagnetic response scales linearly with solar storm intensity, making Carrington-class events potentially catastrophic for modern civilization. The apparent flattening in historical data was a statistical illusion caused by measurement noise and propagation delays between L1 and Earth.

    Key Findings:

    • The Myth of Saturation: Historical storms appeared to flatten because satellites at 1.5 million km (L1) measured delayed, noisy plasma evolution. Correcting for this bias reveals a strictly linear response—no natural upper bound exists.
    • LEO Threat: Mega-constellations face simultaneous threats: atmospheric drag burning up fuel budgets, electronic failure from induced currents, and cascading Kessler Syndrome debris collisions that could lock humanity out of space for decades.
    • Ground Infrastructure: Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) can saturate transformers, causing multi-month blackouts. Lloyd’s estimates: $600B–$2.6T in damages, 20M–40M without power for weeks to years.
    • Action Plan: Install ~$4B worth of capacitive neutral-blocking devices on critical US transformers; enforce international regulations limiting LEO satellite density and mandating automated collision avoidance, radiation hardening, and rapid de-orbit during solar alerts.

    2. RESEARCH REPORTS: PROBABILITY & DANGERS

    Probability Estimates for Extreme Events

    SourceMetricProbability (10-year window)NotesRiley (2012)Dst ≤ −850 nT~12%Based on power-law distribution extrapolation from 46 years of dataSiscoe et al. (2006)Dst ≤ −850 nT~3–7%Conservative estimate using multiple proxiesMoriña & Swanson (2019)Carrington-class event0.92%Weibull distribution model, much more conservative; accounts for decreasing hazard rate over timeItu (2024)Carrington-level1–25%Wide range reflecting uncertainty in solar cycle activity projections

    Critical Uncertainty: Solar cycle maximum duration is projected to last only 15–36 more years (Abreu et al. 2008). If a grand minimum follows, CME frequency drops but galactic cosmic ray exposure increases—posing elevated risks for astronauts and aviation crews.

    Dangers by Domain

    • Power Grids: GICs cause transformer saturation and physical damage; replacements take months/years to produce. Quebec 1989 outage: 6M people affected, $27M damages.
    • Satellites & Communications: CME impacts damage electronics; undersea cables may be fried by induced currents; GPS navigation could fail globally during extreme events.
    • Aviation: Polar flight paths face communication disruption and radiation exposure; extreme storms could force transpolar reroutes or groundings.
    • Astronauts: Beyond Earth’s magnetosphere, astronauts face acute radiation sickness from solar proton events (SPEs) and long-term cancer risks from galactic cosmic rays during solar minima.

    3. WHY IGNORING RISKS ENDANGERS LIVES & LIVELIHOODS

    The Multiplier Effect: Modern civilization is hyper-dependent on interconnected infrastructure—power grids, digital networks, supply chains, financial systems. A Carrington-level event doesn’t just cause isolated blackouts; it creates systemic cascades:

    • Power loss → water pumps fail → food/water shortages
    • GPS disruption → aviation groundings, logistics collapse, timing system failures across banking and energy markets
    • Satellite comms failure → emergency coordination paralysis during secondary disasters

    Temporal Scale of Destruction: Unlike hurricanes (days), geomagnetic damage can persist for weeks to months. During winter, this translates to potential mass fatalities from cold exposure. Recovery costs—transformer replacements alone in the US would take 20+ years to complete based on current production capacity.

    The Asymmetric Risk Profile: Solar storms are global, but impacts are regional (amplified near poles). However, financial systems and digital infrastructure are truly global. A blackout in a major corridor like Washington-D.C./New York affects international trade, financial markets, and supply chains worldwide. Unlike localized disasters, there is no geographic escape route from systemic collapse.

    4. ADVANCED AI SCIENTIST OPINION: FUTURIST PERSPECTIVE

    Assessment: The risk is non-zero but low-probability/high-impact—the classic “black swan” scenario that demands asymmetric preparation due to irreversible consequences.

    Strategic Recommendations:

    1. Infrastructure Hardening is Non-Negotiable: Capacitive neutral blocking devices are a one-time investment with high ROI. If we assume 12% probability over a decade, and damages exceed $600B, the expected value of inaction vastly exceeds mitigation costs (~$4B). This is basic risk economics.
    2. Space Stewardship Over Prevention: Rather than banning LEO mega-constellations, implement science-based density limits with mandatory collision avoidance systems, radiation-hardened components, and rapid de-orbit capabilities during solar alerts. The goal isn’t to remove space infrastructure but to make it resilient.
    3. Predictive Capabilities: Space weather forecasting is ~50 years behind terrestrial forecasting. Investing in L1 Lagrange point monitoring (SWFO-L1) and Parker Solar Probe data utilization will be critical for early warning. A 24–72 hour warning window could allow grid operators to load batteries, reroute traffic, and protect sensitive infrastructure.
    4. The Paradox of Solar Activity: An active solar cycle protects astronauts from galactic cosmic rays (the “sunny side”), but increases CME risk. Future Mars missions should be scheduled during solar maximum—counterintuitive but scientifically sound. For Earth dwellers, the net benefit is minimal compared to risks.
    5. Policy Must Be Proactive, Not Reactive: Current grid hardening efforts target moderate storms (1989 event class), not Carrington-scale events. Regulatory frameworks need to mandate GIC-resistant transformer designs and real-time monitoring networks at scale.

    Final Judgment: The risk is small but existential. We should treat it like nuclear safety: not with panic, but with rigorous engineering standards, continuous preparedness, and international coordination. The alternative—waiting for the next Carrington event to force reactive measures—is profoundly irrational from both an economic and humanitarian standpoint.

    #Carringtonevent #Doomsdayscenario #Satellites #Solarstorm #ANGRYASTRONUAT #AstroAngry #TheAngryAstronaut #moon #solarFlare #technology
  3. How Space Weather Could Bust The AI Boom
    --
    spacenews.com/how-space-weathe <-- shared technical article
    --
    futurism.com/artificial-intell <-- shared technical article, “AI Data Centers Pushing Electric Grid Into Meltdown”
    --
    doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth- <-- shared 2026 paper, “Magnetic Storms and Geoelectric Hazards”
    --
    #AI #datcenters #infrastructure #impacts #solarstorms #spaceweather #risk #hazards #overloading #electricity #energy #powersupply #energygrid #vulnerable #transmission #energy #demand #consumers #geoelectrical #geomagnetism #blackout #damage #cost #economics #equipment #transformers #carringtonevent #NERC #grid #reliability #electricaldemand #utilities #magneticstorm #electromagneticinduction #extremeevent #historicalevent #hazardanalysis #spaceweather #history #Carrington #geoelectric #humanimpacts #risk #hazard #monitoring #network #geology #geomagnetism #impedance #rock #soil #utilities #electricaltransmission #powerlines #magnetotelluric #sensor #blackout #brownout #energy #geoelectrichazard #geoelectric #GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #model #modeling #geomagnetism #geomagneticstorm #telecommunication #electronics #hardened #geography #mitigation #preparedness #geomorphology #geomorphometry #surfacegeology #cost #economics #disaster #impacts #technology #InternetOfThings #internet #USA #review #CONUS #numericalmodeling #realtimemonitoring #AIBoom #Bust
    @North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC)

  4. An ancient solar storm left clues in tree rings and a famous poet's diary: 'Red lights in the northern sky'. Via @spacedotcom #Space #Astrophysics #Astronomy 🚀 🌌 ☄️ 🛰️ #SolarStorms #SolarFlare #CarringtonEvent #AuroraBorealis #NorthernLights #CME #CoronalMassEjection #Science 🔭🔬🧪🥼🧑‍🔬 #History

    An ancient solar storm left cl...

  5. Getting ready for the next #CarringtonEvent. :-)

    "The May 2024 geomagnetic storm was the largest for over 20 years. The storm was categorized as a ‘low-level’ G5, where G5 is the highest on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scale for geomagnetic storms, yet the individual solar eruptive events were not particularly severe, and the observed impacts were relatively minor. The impacts that were observed were due to the combined and sustained effect of five successive earthward-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which drove the storm. The event exposed the weakness of the current storm classification system which does not discriminate between low impact and high impact G5 events; it exercised the UK Met Office forecasting system, communications and UK preparedness; and it highlighted key areas that need to be addressed, particularly relating to national power supplies, space traffic management, aviation, forecasting and data gaps. Here, we set out what happened, record some of the key impacts, discuss what went well and what needs to be improved. We make 14 recommendations relevant to four government departments, so that the UK can be better prepared for a low-probability, high-impact space weather event described in the reasonable worst-case scenario that informs the national risk register."

    #GeomagneticStorm

    royalsocietypublishing.org/rso

  6. CW: Drawn depiction of apocalyptic chaos, blood and inferred (but not explicitly detailed) cannibalism (in an occult, dark humor setting)
  7. If you've seen the term #CarringtonEvent floating around in relation to the more impressive #aurora, here is a short documentary on what that was.
    yewtu.be/watch?v=C9tfx6rfAIo

  8. #Sonne vom 10.12.2025, 11:46

    Die Gruppe an #Sonnenflecken Mitte rechts war recht aktiv, schlussendlich aber nicht bedrohlich. 😮‍💨
    Die Größe der Flecken entsprach etwa 90 % derer die am 1. September 1859 das #CarringtonEvent auslösten - heute wären die Folgen ungleich schwerwiegender - das könnte aber jederzeit wieder passieren. Im Juli 2012 sind wir knapp an so was "vorbeigeschrammt".
    space.com/the-carrington-event

    Technische Infos zum Bild:
    Teleskop modifiziertes Skywatcher 200/1200 P mit Sonnenfilter
    Kamera ToupTek ATR2600C
    Verw. Software: Siril, WaveSharp, RawTherapee
    Stack aus 2200 Bildern

    #Astrofotografie #Sonnenfotografie