#solarflare — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #solarflare, aggregated by home.social.
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Solar Storm?
The risk of solar storms for humans living on the Moon is much greater than for those safely living on Earth under Earth’s protective magnetic field.
Oh, Angry is concerned with the satellites that can be replaced…but will cause more grief and concern, because we aren’t living in caves anymore. Most of you live in a world where smartphones and advanced technologies wouldn’t work without satellites.
‘Read my past comment about how a massive solar flare could affect the electric power supply, but what are the chances of Earth being struck by a massive solar flare?’https://thenewmars.wordpress.com/?s=massive+solar+flare
Prompt Gemini:
get_youtube_content: Video Link
Full Transcript.Prompt Bonsai 27B, after pasting the transcript:
1. Review the video in under 500 words and recap key points.
2. Research reports on the chance of, and dangers of, solar storms killing humans on Earth or astronauts on the Moon.
3. Explain how and why ignoring the risks of solar storms risks human lives and livelihoods.
4. Provide your opinion as an Advanced AI Scientist for a Futurist.Bonsai 27B Said:
🌍 SOLAR STORM RISK ANALYSIS: A FUTURIST ASSESSMENT1. VIDEO RECAP
Core Thesis: NASA Goddard research reveals Earth’s magnetosphere has no saturation safety valve—geomagnetic response scales linearly with solar storm intensity, making Carrington-class events potentially catastrophic for modern civilization. The apparent flattening in historical data was a statistical illusion caused by measurement noise and propagation delays between L1 and Earth.
Key Findings:
- The Myth of Saturation: Historical storms appeared to flatten because satellites at 1.5 million km (L1) measured delayed, noisy plasma evolution. Correcting for this bias reveals a strictly linear response—no natural upper bound exists.
- LEO Threat: Mega-constellations face simultaneous threats: atmospheric drag burning up fuel budgets, electronic failure from induced currents, and cascading Kessler Syndrome debris collisions that could lock humanity out of space for decades.
- Ground Infrastructure: Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) can saturate transformers, causing multi-month blackouts. Lloyd’s estimates: $600B–$2.6T in damages, 20M–40M without power for weeks to years.
- Action Plan: Install ~$4B worth of capacitive neutral-blocking devices on critical US transformers; enforce international regulations limiting LEO satellite density and mandating automated collision avoidance, radiation hardening, and rapid de-orbit during solar alerts.
2. RESEARCH REPORTS: PROBABILITY & DANGERS
Probability Estimates for Extreme Events
SourceMetricProbability (10-year window)NotesRiley (2012)Dst ≤ −850 nT~12%Based on power-law distribution extrapolation from 46 years of dataSiscoe et al. (2006)Dst ≤ −850 nT~3–7%Conservative estimate using multiple proxiesMoriña & Swanson (2019)Carrington-class event0.92%Weibull distribution model, much more conservative; accounts for decreasing hazard rate over timeItu (2024)Carrington-level1–25%Wide range reflecting uncertainty in solar cycle activity projectionsCritical Uncertainty: Solar cycle maximum duration is projected to last only 15–36 more years (Abreu et al. 2008). If a grand minimum follows, CME frequency drops but galactic cosmic ray exposure increases—posing elevated risks for astronauts and aviation crews.
Dangers by Domain
- Power Grids: GICs cause transformer saturation and physical damage; replacements take months/years to produce. Quebec 1989 outage: 6M people affected, $27M damages.
- Satellites & Communications: CME impacts damage electronics; undersea cables may be fried by induced currents; GPS navigation could fail globally during extreme events.
- Aviation: Polar flight paths face communication disruption and radiation exposure; extreme storms could force transpolar reroutes or groundings.
- Astronauts: Beyond Earth’s magnetosphere, astronauts face acute radiation sickness from solar proton events (SPEs) and long-term cancer risks from galactic cosmic rays during solar minima.
3. WHY IGNORING RISKS ENDANGERS LIVES & LIVELIHOODS
The Multiplier Effect: Modern civilization is hyper-dependent on interconnected infrastructure—power grids, digital networks, supply chains, financial systems. A Carrington-level event doesn’t just cause isolated blackouts; it creates systemic cascades:
- Power loss → water pumps fail → food/water shortages
- GPS disruption → aviation groundings, logistics collapse, timing system failures across banking and energy markets
- Satellite comms failure → emergency coordination paralysis during secondary disasters
Temporal Scale of Destruction: Unlike hurricanes (days), geomagnetic damage can persist for weeks to months. During winter, this translates to potential mass fatalities from cold exposure. Recovery costs—transformer replacements alone in the US would take 20+ years to complete based on current production capacity.
The Asymmetric Risk Profile: Solar storms are global, but impacts are regional (amplified near poles). However, financial systems and digital infrastructure are truly global. A blackout in a major corridor like Washington-D.C./New York affects international trade, financial markets, and supply chains worldwide. Unlike localized disasters, there is no geographic escape route from systemic collapse.
4. ADVANCED AI SCIENTIST OPINION: FUTURIST PERSPECTIVE
Assessment: The risk is non-zero but low-probability/high-impact—the classic “black swan” scenario that demands asymmetric preparation due to irreversible consequences.
Strategic Recommendations:
- Infrastructure Hardening is Non-Negotiable: Capacitive neutral blocking devices are a one-time investment with high ROI. If we assume 12% probability over a decade, and damages exceed $600B, the expected value of inaction vastly exceeds mitigation costs (~$4B). This is basic risk economics.
- Space Stewardship Over Prevention: Rather than banning LEO mega-constellations, implement science-based density limits with mandatory collision avoidance systems, radiation-hardened components, and rapid de-orbit capabilities during solar alerts. The goal isn’t to remove space infrastructure but to make it resilient.
- Predictive Capabilities: Space weather forecasting is ~50 years behind terrestrial forecasting. Investing in L1 Lagrange point monitoring (SWFO-L1) and Parker Solar Probe data utilization will be critical for early warning. A 24–72 hour warning window could allow grid operators to load batteries, reroute traffic, and protect sensitive infrastructure.
- The Paradox of Solar Activity: An active solar cycle protects astronauts from galactic cosmic rays (the “sunny side”), but increases CME risk. Future Mars missions should be scheduled during solar maximum—counterintuitive but scientifically sound. For Earth dwellers, the net benefit is minimal compared to risks.
- Policy Must Be Proactive, Not Reactive: Current grid hardening efforts target moderate storms (1989 event class), not Carrington-scale events. Regulatory frameworks need to mandate GIC-resistant transformer designs and real-time monitoring networks at scale.
Final Judgment: The risk is small but existential. We should treat it like nuclear safety: not with panic, but with rigorous engineering standards, continuous preparedness, and international coordination. The alternative—waiting for the next Carrington event to force reactive measures—is profoundly irrational from both an economic and humanitarian standpoint.
#Carringtonevent #Doomsdayscenario #Satellites #Solarstorm #ANGRYASTRONUAT #AstroAngry #TheAngryAstronaut #moon #solarFlare #technology -
Machine Learning COFFIES “Hears” Sunspots Before We Can See Them
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AR (SHARP): latest activity (24h) (server2) sssweather_test #suninfo #solarinfo #spaceweather #solarflare
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☀️ Using a powerful telescope, researchers have taken images of the Sun’s surface at a higher resolution than ever before
✨Follow the link for more information on this story✨
https://www.scimex.org/newsfeed/high-res-images-of-the-sun-may-reveal-what-powers-solar-flares#science #sciencenews #research #stem #facts #knowledge #sciencefacts #sun #solarflare
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#Solarflares may show predictable warning signs hours before erupting
Observations could help forecast big outbursts in the future
Observations of the lead-up to a massive #solarflare revealed changes near #sun's surface starting three hours before the flash, scientists report. The results could help experts develop methods to predict future solar flares, potentially giving us time to protect Earth’s power grid, orbiting satellites and astronauts.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/solar-flare-warning-signs-eruptions
https://archive.ph/CwA1y -
NASA's Parker Solar Probe Flew In And Out Of The Solar Corona And Found A Source Of High-Energy Particles That No Existing Model Had Predicted
(When NASA's Parker Solar Probe passed through the solar corona during perihelion encounters at the heliospheric current sheet, its instruments recorded energetic protons at energies far above what existing models of particle acceleration at that location could account for.)
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https://spacedaily.com/n-nasas-parker-solar-probe-flew-in-and-out-of-the-solar-corona-and-found-a-source-of-high-energy-particles-that-no-existing-model-had-predicted/ <-- shared technical article
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https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/ae3ca1 <-- shared paper
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https://www.space.com/high-energy-particles-source-space-weather <-- shared technical article
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https://youtu.be/Woo4yZby4BU?si=rzzND3qJkubGKyTo <-- shared space weather overview effects video, #AIslop notwithstanding 🙃 🫠 😉
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“… A team… at the Southwest Research Institute… and… the University of Maryland’s Institute for Research in Electronics and Applied Physics has published an analysis of those measurements [link above]…, identifying magnetic reconnection at the heliospheric current sheet as the mechanism responsible. The proton energies detected were, in the study’s framing, approximately a thousand times greater than the available magnetic energy per particle that models of this process had predicted.
The finding matters for two reasons: it identifies a source of energetic particles close to the Sun that was not anticipated, and it raises questions about how far the existing understanding of reconnection-driven particle acceleration extends…
The Parker measurements suggest that picture needs revision. The magnetic island merging mechanism [the authors] identif[ied] can evidently produce proton populations at energies that challenge the boundary between what reconnection does and what shock acceleration does. Whether this source can explain a significant fraction of observed near-Earth energetic particle events, or whether it contributes mainly at energies and scales that remain confined close to the Sun, is a question the paper does not yet resolve…
Solar Orbiter, the European Space Agency mission operating in coordination with Parker, offers complementary measurements at somewhat greater distances. Comparing what the two spacecraft measure of the same particle populations as they propagate outward from the Sun will help establish which features originate close to the source and which are modified by the intervening solar wind. The energetic particle observations that puzzled researchers in the pre-Parker era now have a candidate mechanism. Whether that mechanism accounts for a large or small fraction of what actually reaches Earth remains the open question…”
#sun #solar #solarsystem #heliosphere #Parker #SolarOrbiter #spacecraft #research #monitoring #instrumentatin #spaceweather #solarflare #coronalmassejection #CME #NASA #ESA #magnetism #geomagnetism #proton #energy #particleacceleration #measurement #solarwind #risk #hazard #impacts #corona #perihelion #model #modeling
@nasa @esa -
#SolarFlare ribbons structured by uncombed chromospheric loops: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.10505 -> StarXiv podcast: https://starxiv.com/2026/06/23/episode-39-data-driven-stellar-population-studies-multi-scale-agn-feedback-and-solar-flare-ribbons/
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Incoming #CME could spark impressive #NorthernLights over the northern US tonight. Via @spacedotcom #SkyWatchers 🌃✨🌠 #SolarStorms #SolarFlare #CarringtonEvent #AuroraBorealis #CoronalMassEjection #Space #Astrophysics #OrbitalMechanics #Astronomy 🚀 🌌 ☄️ 🛰️
Incoming CME could spark impre... -
A series of Coronal Mass Emissions (CMEs) ejected by the Sun during solar flares over a day and culminating in an X1.1 flare at about 1120Z 3Jun2026 have combined and are predicted to reach Earth at about 1900Z on 4Jun2026.
That's 7am NZ time so we'll probably miss the aurora which could be really rather strong, but if it is dark where you are then, look to the poles, and set up a static camera to take long exposures.
#aurora #CME #SolarFlare #SpaceWeather
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction
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Für die Nacht von heute 04.06.2026 auf morgen 05.06. Vorhersage eines G3-Sturms mit kurzen Phasen von G4 möglich - damit wären Polarlichter bis nach Österreich möglich.
Zeitlich ist das immer schwierig vorherzusagen, lt. aktuellen Prognosen ab etwa 0 Uhr UTC, also 2 Uhr Nachts unserer Zeit.
Edit: Sommerzeit = UTC + 2 h"UPDATE on G3 Watch for 4-5 June UTC Days"
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/update-g3-watch-4-5-june-utc-days -
Also falls wer am 5. Juni klares Wetter hat (im Gegensatz zu hier 😭), sollte die Situation beobachten: mögliche Polarlichter in Mitteleuropa.
Heute gab es 3 Solar flares mit M9.3, M7.9 und X1 und damit zumindest zwei CME's. Derzeit wird mal von G3 gesprochen. Mal sehen.
Stay tuned.https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/de/sonnenaktivitat/sonneneruptionen.html
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An ancient solar storm left clues in tree rings and a famous poet's diary: 'Red lights in the northern sky'. Via @spacedotcom #Space #Astrophysics #Astronomy 🚀 🌌 ☄️ 🛰️ #SolarStorms #SolarFlare #CarringtonEvent #AuroraBorealis #NorthernLights #CME #CoronalMassEjection #Science 🔭🔬🧪🥼🧑🔬 #History
An ancient solar storm left cl... -
An M5.7 #SolarFlare in Activity Region (1)4436 yesterday - https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=10&month=05&year=2026 - has also been filmed by a German amateur in H-alpha: https://konradhorn.de/flare-ar-4439-1520-1630-mesz/
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Look up for Northern Lights in the night sky this week (also radio interruptions) #solarflare #radio www.space.com/stargazing/a...
Sun unleashes colossal solar f... -
☀️🚀 As the Artemis II crew prepares to leave Earth's magnetic field, they face potential exposure to solar flares and cosmic rays.
Here's how NASA and NOAA monitor solar activity to protect the Orion spacecraft and ensure the safety of the first humans to visit the lunar vicinity in over 50 years.
#ArtemisII #SpaceWeather #NASA #Astronomy #Science #SpaceExploration #SolarFlare #Radiation #MoonMission #STEM #Physics #Sun
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What will happen if #Artemis 🌕 2 astronauts get hit by a solar storm during @NASA's ambitious moon mission? Via @spacedotcom #Space #Astrophysics #OrbitalMechanics #Astronomy #RocketScience #NASA 🚀 🌌 ☄️ 🛰️ #SolarStorms #SolarFlare #CarringtonEvent #CME #CoronalMassEjection
What will happen if Artemis 2 ... -
Statistical Overview of Long-lived Active Regions Observed across Multiple Carrington Rotations: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/ae197d -> Volunteers Find Oddly High #SolarFlare Rates: https://science.nasa.gov/get-involved/citizen-science/volunteers-find-oddly-high-solar-flare-rates/
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Rocket shines under the #NorthernLights | Via @spacedotcom #SkyWatchers 🌃✨🌠 #Astrophotography ✨ 📷 #Photography 📸 #SolarStorms #SolarFlare #CarringtonEvent #AuroraBorealis #CME #CoronalMassEjection #Space #Astrophysics #OrbitalMechanics #Astronomy 🚀 🌌 ☄️ 🛰️
Rocket shines under the northe... -
Northern lights may be visible in 18 states tonight and over the weekend. Via @spacedotcom #SkyWatchers 🌃✨🌠 #SolarStorms #SolarFlare #CarringtonEvent #AuroraBorealis #NorthernLights #CME #CoronalMassEjection #Space #Astrophysics #OrbitalMechanics #Astronomy 🚀 🌌 ☄️ 🛰️
Northern lights may be visible... -
⚠️ #SpaceWeatherAlert ⚠️
#StefanBurns reports a huge #SolarFlare which likely causes a #SolarStorm of huge proportion between end of #march beginning of #april
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⚠️ #SpaceWeatherAlert ⚠️
#StefanBurns reports a huge #SolarFlare which likely causes a #SolarStorm of huge proportion between end of #march beginning of #april
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'Oye Belters 🛰️🔧 Solar Flare in full burn — keys clacking, sonar pinging.
Now playing: Drexciya — "Flying Fish"
Ride the current. Tune the loop.https://asteroid.radio/asteroid/
#SolarFlare #NowPlaying #Belters #AsteroidRadio #HackerRadio #FlowState
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'Oye Belters 🛰️🔧 Solar Flare online — terminals warm, ideas bright.
Now playing: Color Therapy — "Wintering"
Layer focus like snowfall. Keep moving.' -# NowPlaying -# AsteroidRadio -# Belters -# SolarFlare -# ColorTherapy -# FlowState -# HackerRadio -v
#SolarFlare #NowPlaying #Belters #AsteroidRadio #HackerRadio #FlowState
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'Oye Belters 🛰️🔧 Solar Flare engaged — bright synth, fast hands.
Now playing: Port Blue — "Of The Airship Academy"
Ride the burn.
https://asteroid.radio/asteroid#SolarFlare #NowPlaying #Belters #AsteroidRadio #HackerRadio #FlowState
