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#2026predictions — Public Fediverse posts

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  1. I follow Simon's blog (@simon ), as I find it very informative, thorough, and enlightening.

    His most recent post on LLM predictions for 2026 did catch my eye and I had a few thoughts I wanted to capture.

    Keep in mind, they are not repudiations.

    I happen to have more of a fascination with words and metaphors (damn humanities background), which sends me on certain journeys.

    Anyway, here you go...

    pythonbynight.com/blog/challen

    #LLM #2026predictions

  2. Predictions for 2026

    I give a 50% chance that the US will find a pretext to take over Greenland by Easter.

    If it happens than I expect China to effectively takeover Taiwan before 2028.

    Meanwhile Israel will keep bombing everyone and starving Gaza until those remaining have to leave so as not to die.

    NATO will collapse and some sort of European coalition will form based on the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP).

    [1/2]

    #trump #us #europe #2026predictions

  3. 2026 will be the year when people look at the memory usage of their current tech stack and make hard choices.

  4. Great expectations. Seemed appropriate for the start of 2026.
    #2026predictions #economy

  5. 6/🧵Concluding this #2026predictions thread with additional background. Here is a link to my 2023 long-format essay on global risks and threats identification generated for Green Econometrics. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis docs.google.com/document/d/1v8

  6. 5/🧵My #2026predictions are based on my ongoing research begun in 2022 for Green Econometrics. Here is my long-format essay on the subject of global risk and threat analysis generated in 2022. I got some things wrong of course, the stock market is at an all time high currently (probably artificially due to the AI exuberance), seeming to discount and under value the emergent and obvious headwinds. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #ThreatIntel

    docs.google.com/document/d/1E1

  7. 4/🧵3rd risk I’d add to my growing list of #2026predictions is around failed states, and the geopolitical, cultural and conflict disruptions they could easily cause. To wit, Iran and Pakistan are both hovering perilously close to the brink of state failure. Pakistan is nuclear-armed, and Iran is nuclear-ready (even after US and Israeli strikes). Both face seemingly unsolvable financial, energy, food and water crises currently unfolding; not to mention the threats both countries face from internal unrest driven by oppressed minorities seeking autonomy or statehood. in South America, several countries are perpetually on the brink of failure. Venezuela and Cuba come to mind. Likewise in #MENA and sub-Saharan Africa, states like Sudan and Yemen are currently collapsing. A few west African military dictatorships are also suspect. Failed states mean mass migrations, the spread of disease, the collapse of infrastructure and agriculture - resulting in regional disruptions and global risk. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis

  8. 3/🧵2nd risk I see relates to a rapid acceleration of #GlobalWarming and the #ClimateCrisis - In this potential risk scenario, melting glaciers and polar ice sheets accelerate #SeaLevelRise while simultaneously creating flood then drought cycles in geographic regions that depend on glacier melt to annually replenish critical rivers and waterways. Ground water depletion (as is happening in Iran and the #MiddleEast in general right now) exacerbates the situation and prompts #WaterWars and mass migrations that strain regional borders and geopolitics. Parts of Africa, the Middle East, Asia and the American South become virtually uninhabitable due to heat-related issues. Agriculture fails and the global food supply is threatened. In another #Climate related risk scenario, the AMOC overturns - thrusting much of Europe into a mini ice-age, disrupting agriculture, industry and public health. #2026predictions #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #GeoPolitics

  9. 2/🧵Now I’ll be presumptuous enough to add some looming *potential* risks and threats facing us in 2026 and beyond. These are my concerns…
    1. China’s deflation, driven my the ongoing property collapse and construction company defaults; high youth unemployment; unsustainable personal and local government debt; declining consumer consumption, and a demographic collapse will roil the country leading to unrest. The Chinese Communist Party and chairman Xi respond by invading Taiwan to distract the population and appeal to nationalism to restore unity. This brings the USA and Japan into the what will be called the war of the South China Sea. When the Russians enter the fray on the Chinese side, the conflict becomes WWIII and the Chinese break out their multi-warhead hypersonic nukes to bring an end to the conflict. This results in a global nuclear conflagration that sweeps the planet. #2026predictions #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #War #China

  10. THE FRIDAY READ
    15 Scenarios That Could Stun the World in 2026
    Futurists, political analysts and other forecasters on the possible “Black Swan” events of the new year.
    politico.com/news/magazine/202 #2026predictions #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #USPol #AI

  11. Social media usage drops sharply from Gen Z to Gen Alpha and is virtually zero among Gen Beta. Therefore, I conclude that social media is finnished; along with most other drugs, jobs, and just about everything else.

    #2026predictions #HappyNewYear #futurology #socialmedia

  12. laut keltischem Kalender werden im Jahr 2026 der orangene König,
    dessen Gebieter und deren Lakaien fallen.

    de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keltisch

    #2026

    #2026predictions

  13. #2026predictions The Mastodon ecosystem will get a customizable algorithmic feed.

  14. #2026predictions The Winnipeg Jets will pick third overall in the 2026 NHL entry draft. #HNOM

  15. #2026predictions Canada will settle for a silver medal (or worse) in Men's Ice Hockey at the 2026 Olympic Games.🔥 #HNOM

  16. #2026predictions Sometime between Sep-Nov 2026 the AI bubble will burst triggering a massive stock market correction. Major follow on effects will be a massive devaluation of the US dollar and most crypto currencies.

  17. #2026predictions OK let's get into it. In 2026 China recognizing that the US economy is hugely leveraged against 7 AI tech companies begins making open weight AI models free and open source.

  18. 2025 planted the seeds.

    2026 is when they bloom.

    The question isn't whether AI changes everything.

    It's whether we're ready for how fast.

    #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #Tech #OpenAI #Google #Nvidia #AlphaFold #DeepMind #2026Predictions

    14/14

  19. As we head towards New Year's Eve, let me just say that I'm hoping that 2026 will be a bit better than 2025.... but I'm also expecting to see that hope dashed within the first couple of months.

    #NewYear #2026predictions

  20. It is the season for predictions for the new year. I did some for the csoh.org cloudsec community, and they were well received. Since they're too 🌶️🌶️🌶️ for LinkedIn ;) this seems the better place for them.

    They run from likely to ok 😂, probably not - but all of them have some source to them and a non-zero chance of happening. To be clear, I hope most of them don't come true...

    #cloudsecurity #cybersecurity #infosec #2026predictions #2026cyberpredictions