#bayesian — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #bayesian, aggregated by home.social.
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Imagine you’re evaluating a new cancer treatment. It reduces tumor size in most patients, but some experience severe side effects. Would we consider the new treatment better?
Read more about it in a new post on superiority in the multivariate context.
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🦀 smoothbp has been submitted to CRAN!
Hierarchical piecewise regression with smoothed change-points in #RStats — multi-breakpoint models, spike-and-slab regularisation for automatic breakpoint selection, and a fast MCMC sampler written in Rust under the hood.
Dev version: github.com/ABindoff/smoothbp
#rstats #statistics #bayesian -
🦀 smoothbp has been submitted to CRAN!
Hierarchical piecewise regression with smoothed change-points in #RStats — multi-breakpoint models, spike-and-slab regularisation for automatic breakpoint selection, and a fast MCMC sampler written in Rust under the hood.
Dev version: github.com/ABindoff/smoothbp
#rstats #statistics #bayesian -
The Open Inference Lab just opened!🚀
A place for exploring statistical models, with a focus on making complex methods more transparent and easier to understand.
First post: How to handle multiple binary outcomes in a Bayesian way http://bit.ly/4ujWL8a
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New in Demographic Research: Our Bayesian multi-dimensional mortality reconstruction integrates Eurostat, DHS, UN WPP & WIC data to flexibly estimate age-, sex-, and education-specific mortality across countries. #Bayesian #Demography #popjus #iiasa #WIC
https://www.demographic-research.org/articles/volume/54/28 -
New in Demographic Research: Our Bayesian multi-dimensional mortality reconstruction integrates Eurostat, DHS, UN WPP & WIC data to flexibly estimate age-, sex-, and education-specific mortality across countries. #Bayesian #Demography #popjus #iiasa #WIC
https://www.demographic-research.org/articles/volume/54/28 -
New in Demographic Research: Our Bayesian multi-dimensional mortality reconstruction integrates Eurostat, DHS, UN WPP & WIC data to flexibly estimate age-, sex-, and education-specific mortality across countries. #Bayesian #Demography #popjus #iiasa #WIC
https://www.demographic-research.org/articles/volume/54/28 -
New in Demographic Research: Our Bayesian multi-dimensional mortality reconstruction integrates Eurostat, DHS, UN WPP & WIC data to flexibly estimate age-, sex-, and education-specific mortality across countries. #Bayesian #Demography #popjus #iiasa #WIC
https://www.demographic-research.org/articles/volume/54/28 -
New in Demographic Research: Our Bayesian multi-dimensional mortality reconstruction integrates Eurostat, DHS, UN WPP & WIC data to flexibly estimate age-, sex-, and education-specific mortality across countries. #Bayesian #Demography #popjus #iiasa #WIC
https://www.demographic-research.org/articles/volume/54/28 -
...whose birthday, incidentally, is today.
Happy birthday, David MacKay! 🎂 🎓 🚀
MacKay was also one of the first to make clear the connection between many machine-learning algorithms, especially neural networks, and Bayesian probability theory: <https://www.inference.org.uk/mackay/PhD.html>.
His book on Information Theory, Inference, and Learning Algorithms is brilliant and full of humour: <https://www.inference.org.uk/itila/book.html>, just like his lectures: <https://videolectures.net/events/course_information_theory_pattern_recognition>.
And just as brilliant is his book "Sustainable Energy – without the hot air" which analyses in a rational way our energy and climate problem: <https://www.withouthotair.com>. See also his TED talk <https://www.ted.com/talks/david_mackay_a_reality_check_on_renewables>.
He died too soon 😢
http://itila.blogspot.com/
https://www.eng.cam.ac.uk/news/professor-sir-david-mackay-1967-2016 -
...whose birthday, incidentally, is today.
Happy birthday, David MacKay! 🎂 🎓 🚀
MacKay was also one of the first to make clear the connection between many machine-learning algorithms, especially neural networks, and Bayesian probability theory: <https://www.inference.org.uk/mackay/PhD.html>.
His book on Information Theory, Inference, and Learning Algorithms is brilliant and full of humour: <https://www.inference.org.uk/itila/book.html>, just like his lectures: <https://videolectures.net/events/course_information_theory_pattern_recognition>.
And just as brilliant is his book "Sustainable Energy – without the hot air" which analyses in a rational way our energy and climate problem: <https://www.withouthotair.com>. See also his TED talk <https://www.ted.com/talks/david_mackay_a_reality_check_on_renewables>.
He died too soon 😢
http://itila.blogspot.com/
https://www.eng.cam.ac.uk/news/professor-sir-david-mackay-1967-2016 -
...whose birthday, incidentally, is today.
Happy birthday, David MacKay! 🎂 🎓 🚀
MacKay was also one of the first to make clear the connection between many machine-learning algorithms, especially neural networks, and Bayesian probability theory: <https://www.inference.org.uk/mackay/PhD.html>.
His book on Information Theory, Inference, and Learning Algorithms is brilliant and full of humour: <https://www.inference.org.uk/itila/book.html>, just like his lectures: <https://videolectures.net/events/course_information_theory_pattern_recognition>.
And just as brilliant is his book "Sustainable Energy – without the hot air" which analyses in a rational way our energy and climate problem: <https://www.withouthotair.com>. See also his TED talk <https://www.ted.com/talks/david_mackay_a_reality_check_on_renewables>.
He died too soon 😢
http://itila.blogspot.com/
https://www.eng.cam.ac.uk/news/professor-sir-david-mackay-1967-2016 -
...whose birthday, incidentally, is today.
Happy birthday, David MacKay! 🎂 🎓 🚀
MacKay was also one of the first to make clear the connection between many machine-learning algorithms, especially neural networks, and Bayesian probability theory: <https://www.inference.org.uk/mackay/PhD.html>.
His book on Information Theory, Inference, and Learning Algorithms is brilliant and full of humour: <https://www.inference.org.uk/itila/book.html>, just like his lectures: <https://videolectures.net/events/course_information_theory_pattern_recognition>.
And just as brilliant is his book "Sustainable Energy – without the hot air" which analyses in a rational way our energy and climate problem: <https://www.withouthotair.com>. See also his TED talk <https://www.ted.com/talks/david_mackay_a_reality_check_on_renewables>.
He died too soon 😢
http://itila.blogspot.com/
https://www.eng.cam.ac.uk/news/professor-sir-david-mackay-1967-2016 -
...whose birthday, incidentally, is today.
Happy birthday, David MacKay! 🎂 🎓 🚀
MacKay was also one of the first to make clear the connection between many machine-learning algorithms, especially neural networks, and Bayesian probability theory: <https://www.inference.org.uk/mackay/PhD.html>.
His book on Information Theory, Inference, and Learning Algorithms is brilliant and full of humour: <https://www.inference.org.uk/itila/book.html>, just like his lectures: <https://videolectures.net/events/course_information_theory_pattern_recognition>.
And just as brilliant is his book "Sustainable Energy – without the hot air" which analyses in a rational way our energy and climate problem: <https://www.withouthotair.com>. See also his TED talk <https://www.ted.com/talks/david_mackay_a_reality_check_on_renewables>.
He died too soon 😢
http://itila.blogspot.com/
https://www.eng.cam.ac.uk/news/professor-sir-david-mackay-1967-2016 -
Hehehehe, we got another reviewer confused by our use of a 89% credible interval.
Cue the beauty of prime numbers! And it is my co-author's birth year, I am so happy that I can put this in the answer 😅! -
Hehehehe, we got another reviewer confused by our use of a 89% credible interval.
Cue the beauty of prime numbers! And it is my co-author's birth year, I am so happy that I can put this in the answer 😅! -
Hehehehe, we got another reviewer confused by our use of a 89% credible interval.
Cue the beauty of prime numbers! And it is my co-author's birth year, I am so happy that I can put this in the answer 😅! -
Hehehehe, we got another reviewer confused by our use of a 89% credible interval.
Cue the beauty of prime numbers! And it is my co-author's birth year, I am so happy that I can put this in the answer 😅! -
Hehehehe, we got another reviewer confused by our use of a 89% credible interval.
Cue the beauty of prime numbers! And it is my co-author's birth year, I am so happy that I can put this in the answer 😅! -
There is a high probability of there being between 5 and 9 songs in this analysis of Melbourne's weather.
How many seasons does Melbourne really have?
https://seasons.lotlsoft.com/
The rweal question is :
Why does the mean of all them "appear" to happen every day ? ? ?Nice though and way better than the Northern Hemisphere 4 thing ..
Though it needs a bigger longer data set ?
Hey BOM throw some "UX" Interface petty cash at this for every region in OCEANIA !
(( and go read up on Vasa ))
#Bayesian #analysis #weather #Melbourne #climate #indigenous
#BOM #Australia #Vasa -
There is a high probability of there being between 5 and 9 songs in this analysis of Melbourne's weather.
How many seasons does Melbourne really have?
https://seasons.lotlsoft.com/
The rweal question is :
Why does the mean of all them "appear" to happen every day ? ? ?Nice though and way better than the Northern Hemisphere 4 thing ..
Though it needs a bigger longer data set ?
Hey BOM throw some "UX" Interface petty cash at this for every region in OCEANIA !
(( and go read up on Vasa ))
#Bayesian #analysis #weather #Melbourne #climate #indigenous
#BOM #Australia #Vasa -
There is a high probability of there being between 5 and 9 songs in this analysis of Melbourne's weather.
How many seasons does Melbourne really have?
https://seasons.lotlsoft.com/
The rweal question is :
Why does the mean of all them "appear" to happen every day ? ? ?Nice though and way better than the Northern Hemisphere 4 thing ..
Though it needs a bigger longer data set ?
Hey BOM throw some "UX" Interface petty cash at this for every region in OCEANIA !
(( and go read up on Vasa ))
#Bayesian #analysis #weather #Melbourne #climate #indigenous
#BOM #Australia #Vasa -
There is a high probability of there being between 5 and 9 songs in this analysis of Melbourne's weather.
How many seasons does Melbourne really have?
https://seasons.lotlsoft.com/
The rweal question is :
Why does the mean of all them "appear" to happen every day ? ? ?Nice though and way better than the Northern Hemisphere 4 thing ..
Though it needs a bigger longer data set ?
Hey BOM throw some "UX" Interface petty cash at this for every region in OCEANIA !
(( and go read up on Vasa ))
#Bayesian #analysis #weather #Melbourne #climate #indigenous
#BOM #Australia #Vasa -
There is a high probability of there being between 5 and 9 songs in this analysis of Melbourne's weather.
How many seasons does Melbourne really have?
https://seasons.lotlsoft.com/
The rweal question is :
Why does the mean of all them "appear" to happen every day ? ? ?Nice though and way better than the Northern Hemisphere 4 thing ..
Though it needs a bigger longer data set ?
Hey BOM throw some "UX" Interface petty cash at this for every region in OCEANIA !
(( and go read up on Vasa ))
#Bayesian #analysis #weather #Melbourne #climate #indigenous
#BOM #Australia #Vasa -
#MissKittyPolitics #AI #Research #VIDEO 76 seconds until #nuclear midnight. A short explanation. <8 min. #PRA. #Bayesian. #Game #Theory.
Nuclear_Risk.mp4 -
#MissKittyPolitics #AI #Research 76 seconds until midnight. The short explanation. 17+ min. #PRA. #Bayesian. #Game #Theory.
Calculating_the_probability_of... -
#MissKittyPolitics #AI #Research 76 seconds until midnight. The long explanation. #PRA. #Bayesian. #Game #Theory.
Seventy_Six_Seconds_to_Midnigh... -
Defining the Computational Surface:
🔹 [Level 0] - KEREN: 0 Tokens. Surface-level discovery and basic vendor identification. The "Free Look" at the gate.
🔸 [Level 1] - CHARLOTTE: 1 Token. Bayesian Prior Analysis. This detects "Numerical Sickness" and generates your baseline HFY (How Fucked Are You) score.
Choose your depth.
#RiskEngine #DataScience #Bayesian #HFYScore #Charlotte
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Defining the Computational Surface:
🔹 [Level 0] - KEREN: 0 Tokens. Surface-level discovery and basic vendor identification. The "Free Look" at the gate.
🔸 [Level 1] - CHARLOTTE: 1 Token. Bayesian Prior Analysis. This detects "Numerical Sickness" and generates your baseline HFY (How Fucked Are You) score.
Choose your depth.
#RiskEngine #DataScience #Bayesian #HFYScore #Charlotte
-
Defining the Computational Surface:
🔹 [Level 0] - KEREN: 0 Tokens. Surface-level discovery and basic vendor identification. The "Free Look" at the gate.
🔸 [Level 1] - CHARLOTTE: 1 Token. Bayesian Prior Analysis. This detects "Numerical Sickness" and generates your baseline HFY (How Fucked Are You) score.
Choose your depth.
#RiskEngine #DataScience #Bayesian #HFYScore #Charlotte
-
Defining the Computational Surface:
🔹 [Level 0] - KEREN: 0 Tokens. Surface-level discovery and basic vendor identification. The "Free Look" at the gate.
🔸 [Level 1] - CHARLOTTE: 1 Token. Bayesian Prior Analysis. This detects "Numerical Sickness" and generates your baseline HFY (How Fucked Are You) score.
Choose your depth.
#RiskEngine #DataScience #Bayesian #HFYScore #Charlotte
-
Defining the Computational Surface:
🔹 [Level 0] - KEREN: 0 Tokens. Surface-level discovery and basic vendor identification. The "Free Look" at the gate.
🔸 [Level 1] - CHARLOTTE: 1 Token. Bayesian Prior Analysis. This detects "Numerical Sickness" and generates your baseline HFY (How Fucked Are You) score.
Choose your depth.
#RiskEngine #DataScience #Bayesian #HFYScore #Charlotte
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Embracing Bayesian methods in clinical trials
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2847011
#HackerNews #Embracing #Bayesian #methods #in #clinical #trials #BayesianMethods #ClinicalTrials #DataScience #HealthResearch #JAMA
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Embracing Bayesian methods in clinical trials
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2847011
#HackerNews #Embracing #Bayesian #methods #in #clinical #trials #BayesianMethods #ClinicalTrials #DataScience #HealthResearch #JAMA
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Embracing Bayesian methods in clinical trials
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2847011
#HackerNews #Embracing #Bayesian #methods #in #clinical #trials #BayesianMethods #ClinicalTrials #DataScience #HealthResearch #JAMA
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Embracing Bayesian methods in clinical trials
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2847011
#HackerNews #Embracing #Bayesian #methods #in #clinical #trials #BayesianMethods #ClinicalTrials #DataScience #HealthResearch #JAMA
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Embracing Bayesian methods in clinical trials
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2847011
#HackerNews #Embracing #Bayesian #methods #in #clinical #trials #BayesianMethods #ClinicalTrials #DataScience #HealthResearch #JAMA
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"Five skills. Each one is counter-cyclical (becomes more valuable as hype recedes), resistant to LLM automation (requires human judgment that pattern-matching can’t replicate), and directly tied to the business outcomes executives actually pay for."
by Kaushik Rajan: https://towardsdatascience.com/the-ai-bubble-has-a-data-science-escape-hatch/#DataScience #BayesianStatistics #BayesianStats #Bayesian #causalInference #experimentalDesign #SPC #statisticalProcessControl
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"Five skills. Each one is counter-cyclical (becomes more valuable as hype recedes), resistant to LLM automation (requires human judgment that pattern-matching can’t replicate), and directly tied to the business outcomes executives actually pay for."
by Kaushik Rajan: https://towardsdatascience.com/the-ai-bubble-has-a-data-science-escape-hatch/#DataScience #BayesianStatistics #BayesianStats #Bayesian #causalInference #experimentalDesign #SPC #statisticalProcessControl
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"Five skills. Each one is counter-cyclical (becomes more valuable as hype recedes), resistant to LLM automation (requires human judgment that pattern-matching can’t replicate), and directly tied to the business outcomes executives actually pay for."
by Kaushik Rajan: https://towardsdatascience.com/the-ai-bubble-has-a-data-science-escape-hatch/#DataScience #BayesianStatistics #BayesianStats #Bayesian #causalInference #experimentalDesign #SPC #statisticalProcessControl
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"Five skills. Each one is counter-cyclical (becomes more valuable as hype recedes), resistant to LLM automation (requires human judgment that pattern-matching can’t replicate), and directly tied to the business outcomes executives actually pay for."
by Kaushik Rajan: https://towardsdatascience.com/the-ai-bubble-has-a-data-science-escape-hatch/#DataScience #BayesianStatistics #BayesianStats #Bayesian #causalInference #experimentalDesign #SPC #statisticalProcessControl
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"Five skills. Each one is counter-cyclical (becomes more valuable as hype recedes), resistant to LLM automation (requires human judgment that pattern-matching can’t replicate), and directly tied to the business outcomes executives actually pay for."
by Kaushik Rajan: https://towardsdatascience.com/the-ai-bubble-has-a-data-science-escape-hatch/#DataScience #BayesianStatistics #BayesianStats #Bayesian #causalInference #experimentalDesign #SPC #statisticalProcessControl
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Preprint alert: Simulation-based validation of Bayes Factor computation with @paul_buerkner and Sebastian Stroppel. We bring lessons learned in improving SBC to validation of Bayes factors. The main idea is still the same: simulate data from the models, fit those and see if the inferences are calibrated. 1/
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.11814
#Bayesian #stats #rstats #SBC -
Preprint alert: Simulation-based validation of Bayes Factor computation with @paul_buerkner and Sebastian Stroppel. We bring lessons learned in improving SBC to validation of Bayes factors. The main idea is still the same: simulate data from the models, fit those and see if the inferences are calibrated. 1/
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.11814
#Bayesian #stats #rstats #SBC -
Preprint alert: Simulation-based validation of Bayes Factor computation with @paul_buerkner and Sebastian Stroppel. We bring lessons learned in improving SBC to validation of Bayes factors. The main idea is still the same: simulate data from the models, fit those and see if the inferences are calibrated. 1/
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.11814
#Bayesian #stats #rstats #SBC -
Preprint alert: Simulation-based validation of Bayes Factor computation with @paul_buerkner and Sebastian Stroppel. We bring lessons learned in improving SBC to validation of Bayes factors. The main idea is still the same: simulate data from the models, fit those and see if the inferences are calibrated. 1/
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.11814
#Bayesian #stats #rstats #SBC -
Preprint alert: Simulation-based validation of Bayes Factor computation with @paul_buerkner and Sebastian Stroppel. We bring lessons learned in improving SBC to validation of Bayes factors. The main idea is still the same: simulate data from the models, fit those and see if the inferences are calibrated. 1/
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.11814
#Bayesian #stats #rstats #SBC