#bayesian — Public Fediverse posts

Alright, future engineers!
**Bayes' Theorem:** Updates an event's probability (hypothesis) based on new evidence.
Ex: P(H|E) = [P(E|H) * P(H)] / P(E).
Pro-Tip: Essential for diagnostic tests & updating beliefs with new data! Use it to refine predictions.
#ProbStats #Bayesian #STEM #StudyNotes

Vor zwei Jahren sank die Superyacht Bayesian unter ungeklärten Umständen. Während die Behörden ermitteln, geht die Bauwerft pleite. Was steckt dahinter? #Bayesian #PeriniNavi #Schiffsunglück #Schiffsuntergang #Seeunfall #Superyacht #TheItalianSeaGroup
👋 Im ersten Kommentar ist der komplette float-Artikel von Roland Wildberg verlinkt 👇

https://floatmagazin.de/leute/kentert-jetzt-auch-die-bayesian-werft-glaeubigerschutz/

Vor zwei Jahren sank die Superyacht Bayesian unter ungeklärten Umständen. Während die Behörden ermitteln, geht die Bauwerft pleite. Was steckt dahinter? #Bayesian #PeriniNavi #Schiffsunglück #Schiffsuntergang #Seeunfall #Superyacht #TheItalianSeaGroup
👋 Im ersten Kommentar ist der komplette float-Artikel von Roland Wildberg verlinkt 👇

https://floatmagazin.de/leute/kentert-jetzt-auch-die-bayesian-werft-glaeubigerschutz/

AI Faculty Positions at Capital Normal University, Beijing
Capital Normal University

Capital Normal University seeks AI faculty and researchers in Beijing.

See the full job description on jobRxiv: https://jobrxiv.org/job/capital-normal-university-27778-ai-faculty-positions-at-capital-normal-university-beijing/

#aimachinelearning #artificialintelligence #bayesian...
https://jobrxiv.org/job/capital-normal-university-27778-ai-faculty-positions-at-capital-normal-university-beijing/?fsp_sid=14262

AI Faculty Positions at Capital Normal University, Beijing
Capital Normal University

Capital Normal University seeks AI faculty and researchers in Beijing.

See the full job description on jobRxiv: https://jobrxiv.org/job/capital-normal-university-27778-ai-faculty-positions-at-capital-normal-university-beijing/

#aimachinelearning #artificialintelligence #bayesian...
https://jobrxiv.org/job/capital-normal-university-27778-ai-faculty-positions-at-capital-normal-university-beijing/?fsp_sid=14262

@NunavutBirder #Bayesian

Sven Ove Hansson has revised his SEP-entry on the Logic of Belief Revision, https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/logic-belief-revision/

#sep #belief #knowledge #tieto #epistemology #logic #philosophy #filosofia #reasoning #agm #learning #bayesian

Sven Ove Hansson has revised his SEP-entry on the Logic of Belief Revision, https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/logic-belief-revision/

#sep #belief #knowledge #tieto #epistemology #logic #philosophy #filosofia #reasoning #agm #learning #bayesian

Time-evolution models lift degeneracies in exoplanet atmosphere retrievals

If this matters to you, share it.

https://1ban.news/exoplanet-evolutionary-bayesian-retrievals/

#1ban #exoplanet #evolutionary #bayesian #retrievals #space

Invariance considerations FTW
#Bayesian #prior

Invariance considerations FTW
#Bayesian #prior

The well-calibrated Bayesian [pdf]

https://fitelson.org/seminar/dawid.pdf

Comments: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48921121

#HackerNews #Bayesian #Statistics #Well-Calibrated #Data #Science #PDF

The well-calibrated Bayesian [pdf]

https://fitelson.org/seminar/dawid.pdf

Comments: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48921121

#HackerNews #Bayesian #Statistics #Well-Calibrated #Data #Science #PDF

over the last few weeks ive been having a conversation with "Joshua" and a few others on causality, mechanistic modeling, Bayesian inference, and observational/pseudo experimental data on Gelmans blog. Because of the limitations of nesting on WordPress it goes for a while and restarts on different threads etc. easiest way is to start at this link then find my name on the page after reading this thread and read other threads #Bayesian #statistics #mechanistic

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/26/dont-alphabetize/#comment-2415960

over the last few weeks ive been having a conversation with "Joshua" and a few others on causality, mechanistic modeling, Bayesian inference, and observational/pseudo experimental data on Gelmans blog. Because of the limitations of nesting on WordPress it goes for a while and restarts on different threads etc. easiest way is to start at this link then find my name on the page after reading this thread and read other threads #Bayesian #statistics #mechanistic

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/26/dont-alphabetize/#comment-2415960

Finally got my author copy of Bayesian workflow! Check out https://avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Workflow/ if you want a copy, a discount code, get source code for our examples and stuff.

#Bayesian #stats

Finally got my author copy of Bayesian workflow! Check out https://avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Workflow/ if you want a copy, a discount code, get source code for our examples and stuff.

#Bayesian #stats

I recently discovered @betanalpha 's writing on the foundations of probability theory, and they're very very good:

https://betanalpha.github.io/writing/

I understand all this algebra and analysis is too heavy for most undergrads. But it does give the topic the serious treatment it deserves (topology, Hausdorff spaces, measure theory, conditional distributions over partitions) while still providing enough background to understand it.

I highly recommend it!

#bayesian #statistics

I've published my first post in almost 10 years! It's about a seemingly strange quirk in #Bayesian logistic regression. In the post, I have some #brms examples (via #Rstats ) that show that the treatment effect for Arm B can be effected by the performance of Arm C in a 3 arm trial. This is unintuitive to me and I can't quite figure out what's going on.

https://www.westendstats.com/posts/bayesian-logistic-regression/

I've published my first post in almost 10 years! It's about a seemingly strange quirk in #Bayesian logistic regression. In the post, I have some #brms examples (via #Rstats ) that show that the treatment effect for Arm B can be effected by the performance of Arm C in a 3 arm trial. This is unintuitive to me and I can't quite figure out what's going on.

https://www.westendstats.com/posts/bayesian-logistic-regression/

Meta-analyses may reveal effects not noticeable in individual studies, such as treatment-by-subgroup interactions (e.g. effects in males vs. females). To support Bayesian analysis, prior knowledge on interaction heterogeneity is crucial. @panaro compiled such data, showing heterogeneity is often lower than expected (which makes the derived prior valuable to support formal analyses).
See here for details:

👉 https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.23968

(Joint work with @friede1)

#Bayesian #MetaAnalysis #MedStatGoe

Meta-analyses may reveal effects not noticeable in individual studies, such as treatment-by-subgroup interactions (e.g. effects in males vs. females). To support Bayesian analysis, prior knowledge on interaction heterogeneity is crucial. @panaro compiled such data, showing heterogeneity is often lower than expected (which makes the derived prior valuable to support formal analyses).
See here for details:

👉 https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.23968

(Joint work with @friede1)

#Bayesian #MetaAnalysis #MedStatGoe

📢 The working group "Bayes Methods" of the International Biometric Society's German Region (IBS-DR) is hosting a workshop on

BAYESIAN STATISTICS IN MEDICAL RESEARCH

including a tutorial on "Bayesian and Causal Networks in Medicine: Concepts, Implementation and Interpretation in R" by Marco Scutari (Lugano).
See here for details:

👉 https://www.biometrische-gesellschaft.de/pdf/AnkuendigungBayesWorkshop2026.pdf

#Bayesian #statistics

🎉 smoothbp preprint is live!
Excited to share the arXiv preprint for smoothbp, an R package for smoothed hierarchical breakpoint detection in Bayesian longitudinal models.
The package is FOSS (GPL-3), available on GitHub and heading to CRAN now with all checks passing ✅
Preprint: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.19044
Feedback very welcome.
#rstats #bayesian #foss #openscience #research

🤔 Can you perform a meta-analysis of a single study?
💡 Yes, you can -- this makes perfect sense if you want to derive a "meta-analytic-predictive (MAP) prior" based on a previous study. And it is in fact done implicitly in certain shrinkage applications involving only 2 studies. @friede1 and I had a closer look at this case:
👉 https://doi.org/10.1017/rsm.2026.10081

#Bayesian #MetaAnalysis #MedStatGoe

AI Faculty Positions at Capital Normal University, Beijing
Capital Normal University

Capital Normal University seeks AI faculty and researchers in Beijing.

See the full job description on jobRxiv: https://jobrxiv.org/job/capital-normal-university-27778-ai-faculty-positions-at-capital-normal-university-beijing/

#aimachinelearning #artificialintelligence #bayesian...
https://jobrxiv.org/job/capital-normal-university-27778-ai-faculty-positions-at-capital-normal-university-beijing/?fsp_sid=12627

AI Faculty Positions at Capital Normal University, Beijing
Capital Normal University

Capital Normal University seeks AI faculty and researchers in Beijing.

See the full job description on jobRxiv: https://jobrxiv.org/job/capital-normal-university-27778-ai-faculty-positions-at-capital-normal-university-beijing/

#aimachinelearning #artificialintelligence #bayesian...
https://jobrxiv.org/job/capital-normal-university-27778-ai-faculty-positions-at-capital-normal-university-beijing/?fsp_sid=12627

🎉 Congratulations to Erik R. Otárola-Castillo on being elected Secretary-Elect of the Society for American Archaeology!

Check out his AAP article, which explores how #Bayesian approaches can help archaeologists move beyond dating and toward testing broader archaeological #hypotheses.

📖 Read here:
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/advances-in-archaeological-practice/article/beyond-chronology-using-bayesian-inference-to-evaluate-hypotheses-in-archaeology/008B3DB410D6F9E0CF71067FEB1A6DC7

🎉 Congratulations to Erik R. Otárola-Castillo on being elected Secretary-Elect of the Society for American Archaeology!

Check out his AAP article, which explores how #Bayesian approaches can help archaeologists move beyond dating and toward testing broader archaeological #hypotheses.

📖 Read here:
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/advances-in-archaeological-practice/article/beyond-chronology-using-bayesian-inference-to-evaluate-hypotheses-in-archaeology/008B3DB410D6F9E0CF71067FEB1A6DC7

To be fair, non Bayesian meta-analyses could be employed for the same purpose, but most meta-analytic methods are closeted Bayesian ones, so I do not view them as a non Bayesian alternative. In other words be non-Bayesian in the Results and #Bayesian in the Discussion

Imagine you’re evaluating a new cancer treatment. It reduces tumor size in most patients, but some experience severe side effects. Would we consider the new treatment better?

Read more about it in a new post on superiority in the multivariate context.

https://bit.ly/4e97n4n

#statistics #bayesian #rstats

🦀 smoothbp has been submitted to CRAN!
Hierarchical piecewise regression with smoothed change-points in #RStats — multi-breakpoint models, spike-and-slab regularisation for automatic breakpoint selection, and a fast MCMC sampler written in Rust under the hood.
Dev version: github.com/ABindoff/smoothbp
#rstats #statistics #bayesian