#actuarial — Public Fediverse posts

Why does #Japan , an #Earthquake prone country, have 2-phase wiring?

Surely it's cheaper to re-wire the country for 3-phase wiring than to risk the added cost of the #electric #fire #hazard ?

#question #actuary #actuarial #riskmanagement

@glyph
I hear you.

My favourite (perhaps less jarring?) example is when a court declares they have found someone guilty, and that their threshold of guilt is "on balance of odds".

I look at the lawyers and the witnesses and realise that none of them has studied actuarial or probability mathematics. I wouldn't even trust them to understand a bet on the horses. For a scientist to watch them is like observing a cargo cult. Worse, I am sure, is for a scientist to find themselves on the receiving end of such a court.

I would offer the meagre consolation that you can see the feedback loops that drive them to behave so, where they think themselves to have free will.

#cybernetics #actuarial #odds #maths #math #statistics #science #scientificInquiry #systemsArchitecture #justice #law #policing #cargoCult

@Simon318ppm @urlyman

- I agree that:
- the fundamental question might be of almost existential importance to organised groups, and humans who wish to form and maintain them.
- finding common ground is essential, as is nurturing empathy in all parties.

- I sumbit that:
- enquiring minds might enjoy examining the findings (or what we might divine of them, for such firms, if they have any sense, have long since obfuscated their work) of Cambridge Analytica and their ilk: https://research.bangor.ac.uk/portal/files/35063914/2020_Psychological_Operations.pdf although please note that state-of-the-art circa 10 years ago may now be old hat.
- theologans are a fine source of information regarding tried-and-tested methods of creating inclusive "in-groups".
- lesser groups that depend upon cohesive thinking like cults, militaries, resistance or political groups, corporate entities, and so forth, are all worthy of consideration too. The real nuggets of gold are finding the "happy-clappy" groups that manage to absorb & bestow happiness upon their adversaries. Not sure where one finds such groups though (outside http://mathstodon.xyz obviously).

- I'd love to know if anyone has come across any "threads" that are interesting to pull at, or salient web-search terms that are a good start, in reading about such things.
- I'd be curious to know how folks (eg in NATO, CCP, etc) taking high-level geopolitical perspectives might view this problem.

#Peace #Love #War #Psychology #Groupthink #Totalitarianism #Advertising #ManufacturingConsensus #CambridgeAnalytica #DataAnalysis #Actuarial #Math #Maths #Data #BigData #Inclusion #EqualRights #HumanRights #Geography #Sharing #Conflict #Atrocities #Crime #Law #Government #Civics #Legal #CND #Theology

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