#actuaries — Public Fediverse posts on home.social

A great new paper out from the #IFoA talking about planetary solvency - if the planet was an insurance company it would be going insolvent and the implications for our lives. Basic message: better to be approximately right than precisely wrong

https://actuaries.org.uk/news-and-media-releases/news-articles/2025/jan/16-jan-25-planetary-solvency-finding-our-balance-with-nature/

#ClimateCrisis #actuaries

#climatecrisis #actuaries #ifoa

calculang @calculang · 2024-12-29 · 21:57 UTC

ASMR for actuaries

title: "delayed stress turns good"

soon you can make your own!

#actuaries #models

Chris Wellens @[email protected] · 2024-12-21 · 22:06 UTC

@calsnoboarder @MikeDunnAuthor

"... their decisions (not really theirs, since they have actuaries and other experts who tell them what to implement in terms of policy)"

This is actually NOT correct. If the actuaries are doing their jobs properly, then the probability and risk of paying for a particular treatment is built into the premium. So that means the majority of claims should be approved for payment. modulo fraudulent claims.

#insurance #premiums #actuaries

China Business Forum @[email protected] · 2024-10-23 · 11:42 UTC

The 2024 #Asian #Actuarial #Conference (#AAC), organized by the Actuarial Society of #HongKong (#ASHK), commenced today at the Ocean Park Marriott Hotel in Hong Kong. Themed “Exploring the #Future of #Insurance and Beyond: #Innovation, #International #Hubs, and Hong Kong,” this prestigious three-day #event has attracted over 1,000 participants, including internationally renowned #experts, #actuaries, and thought #leaders from #Asia and beyond. https://cnbusinessforum.com/2024-asian-actuarial-conference-kicks-off-in-hong-kong-focusing-on-insurance-innovation-and-growth/

#asian #actuarial #conference #aac #hongkong #ashk

Coach Sankhavaram ® @[email protected] · 2024-04-18 · 15:16 UTC

@FantasticalEconomics

A lot of words that aren’t #AdverseSelection: https://www.superversive.co/blog/no-renewal-due-to-adverse-selection

#Actuaries are the world’s oldest analyzers of empirical data: https://www.superversive.co/blog/actuaries-are-the-worlds-oldest-data-scientists

#adverseselection #actuaries

Louise Pryor @[email protected] · 2024-03-14 · 18:17 UTC

Climate risks are complex, interconnected, and could threaten the basis of our society and economy. Latest report from #IFoA - joint work from actuaries and climate scientists.

Climate Scorpion – the sting is in the tail https://actuaries.org.uk/news-and-media-releases/news-articles/2024/mar/14-mar-24-climate-scorpion-the-sting-is-in-the-tail/ .

We can't rely on the best case, or even on the best estimate of what will happen. We need to have a best guess about the worst-case and make policy on that basis.

It's a fantastic report, and a must-read.

#climateEmergency #uncertainty #actuaries

#ifoa #climateemergency #uncertainty #actuaries

Chuck Darwin @[email protected] · 2024-03-14 · 17:41 UTC

#Actuaries have issued a call for more #precise #climate #risk #assessments, highlighting the concept of the “🔹risk of ruin🔹,” which refers to a critical juncture beyond which global society might be unable to adapt to the ramifications of climate change.

A collaboration between the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries ( #IFoA ) and the University of Exeter has resulted in a report titled
💥“Climate Scorpion: the sting is in the tail,” 💥which makes a case for employing risk management strategies traditionally used in financial services to evaluate and convey the risks associated with climate change.

The report advocates for the consideration of “worst-case” scenarios regarding climate change. It also issued a warning that the pace of global warming could be #accelerating, with the likelihood it could surpass the 1.5°C target becoming increasingly plausible.
This could lead to several tipping points, including the #collapse of the #Greenland #ice #sheets, which could have long-lasting consequences.
Unexpected sensitivity to climate change is also a concern, as what is often described as a “#tail-#risk” might have a higher probability of resulting in significant temperature increases.
Methodologies are also now suggesting that a doubling of #greenhouse #gas concentrations could lead to #temperature rises of 7°C or more.
https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/uk/news/environmental/policymakers-urged-to-consider-risk-of-ruin-for-climate-481136.aspx

#actuaries #precise #climate #risk #assessments #ifoa

Coach Sankhavaram ® @[email protected] · 2024-03-04 · 02:10 UTC

@skry
Reserving #actuaries at commercial #insurance carriers have been waiting for this data-point to drop for months.

#actuaries #insurance

Kent Pitman @[email protected] · 2024-02-01 · 13:02 UTC

@Snoro

Stepping back from insurance to look at the broader picture:

Capitalism and corporatism are founded on the notion that one can make big risks and then walk away with untouchable cash when those big risks fail because the corporate firewall keeps the bad decisions from affecting the personal lives of those making them.

It would be hard to fix capitalism as a whole, but a partial fix would be to say that for errors that have mass impact, it just isn't good enough to exclude the decision-makers from blame. They have to be bankrupted along with those they take down with them. Weakening that one-way valve that allows riches to be shoveled into personal accounts never to be touched by government (i.e., the affected public) would be a big help because otherwise the public is just an externality to be pumped dry and left to whither: privatized gains, socialized losses, as they say.
It's really shameful that anyone could be an actuary and not have seen this coming much farther out. Licenses/credentials should be revoked.

It's also really shameful that anyone could be an actuary and not have seen this coming much farther out. I and others, without any such formal credential, could see this coming a mile away. Actuaries are some of the smartest people I know, and so they cannot have been oblivious but rather complicit, or at best willfully blind, which sadly amounts to the same. Licenses/credentials should be revoked.

But my point is also that this is broader than the insurance industry, just more obvious here. Fishing out the oceans, doing shipping with the risk of environmental disaster, etc. are all really the same motives: big profit and if you goof, well, the corporate veil protects you. It ought not.

People who do environmental crimes should be held to account under crimes against humanity.

But really, I'm not sure that we shouldn't be analyzing the insurance industry's role in this environmental disaster because actuarial analyses are part of the bolstering effect of a societal myth that there is not disaster looming. By continuing business as usual right up to the brink here, these people are saying to everyone, this is a problem. Drawing back from places finally speaks loudly, but they could have spoken loudly earlier and are not blameless.

Oil companies, but not just oil companies: fishing companies, insurers, and on and on, are being allowed to profit right down to societal collapse and will be the ones left with money that temporarily shields them more than most people when in fact they have brought the problem almost in precise proportion to the riches they have amassed in the process.

#capitalism #collapse #actuaries #insurance #economics #profit #climate #food

#capitalism #collapse #actuaries #insurance #economics #profit

Ralph Hogaboom @[email protected] · 2023-09-01 · 03:44 UTC

why is there no #statstadon for #statistics and #probability #math and #mathematics nerds? Or #risk #analysts, #actuaries , etc

#actuaries #analysts #risk #mathematics #math #probability

Louise Pryor @[email protected] · 2023-07-26 · 11:49 UTC

Today the IFoA has published a statement on the social, economic and financial risks posed by biodiversity loss. https://actuaries.org.uk/about-us/biodiversity-statement/

This is a really great piece of work. Do read the statement! The supporting resources are excellent, invaluable for anyone working in the financial world - investors, insurers and lenders. There's an introduction to Biodiversity and nature related risks https://actuaries.org.uk/about-us/practice-areas/sustainability/biodiversity-and-nature-related-risks-for-actuaries-an-introduction/ as well as lots more at the hub https://actuaries.org.uk/learn/lifelong-learning/sustainability-and-lifelong-learning/biodiversity/ #actuaries #biodiversity

#actuaries #biodiversity

Louise Pryor @[email protected] · 2023-07-12 · 15:23 UTC

Many widely used scenarios, (including NGFS ones) significantly underestimate climate risk. Carbon budgets are probably smaller than we thought, so climate risks will develop more quickly than anticipated. This is very important because of the group-think problem - if all the financial institutions and corporate reporting through TCFD, are using the same (misleading) scenarios, the financial system and indeed the whole economy is extremely vulnerable.

#ClimateCrisis #scenarios #actuaries

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#climatecrisis #scenarios #actuaries

Louise Pryor @[email protected] · 2023-07-12 · 15:19 UTC

The Emperor's New Climate Scenarios, or what's wrong with the climate change financial scenarios that are currently used - an excellent report just out from Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and the University of Exeter. Spoiler alert: there's a lot wrong with them. And a lot of reasons why they are so wrong. But there's also a reason for optimism - we can choose what scenarios we use! https://actuaries.org.uk/news-and-media-releases/news-articles/2023/july/04-july-23-emperor-s-new-climate-scenarios-a-warning-for-financial-services/

#ClimateCrisis #scenarios #actuaries

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#climatecrisis #scenarios #actuaries

Benjamin Carr, Ph.D. 👨🏻‍💻🧬 @[email protected] · 2023-07-05 · 23:37 UTC

#Financial #models on #climate risk ‘implausible’, say #actuaries
Lack of understanding of full #economic damage caused by ‘hothouse’ conditions, report finds: Financial institutions often did not understand the models they were using to predict the economic cost of #climatechange and were underestimating the risks of #temperature rises, research led by a professional body of actuaries shows.
https://archive.ph/JXpzt #climatecrisis
From the #FinancialTimes

#financial #models #climate #actuaries #economic #climatechange

Coach Sankhavaram ® @[email protected] · 2023-05-03 · 06:27 UTC

Coverage and premiums against flood insurance in Florida are woke and ESG now.

The actuaries said so.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/desantis-signs-sweeping-anti-esg-legislation-in-florida/ar-AA1aF0TW

#woke #ESG #insurance #actuaries #math #STEM #floodinsurance

#woke #esg #insurance #actuaries #math #stem

Coach Sankhavaram ® @[email protected] · 2023-02-22 · 00:49 UTC

Actuaries are the world’s oldest data scientists. They literally make their living applying the scientific method to the law of large numbers: fucking around and finding out.

The result is that insurance premiums price the risk with statistical certainty.

You don’t like these rules.

Oh, well.

Fuck around and find out, then 🤷🏻‍♂️

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2023/02/coastal-cities-housing-sea-level-flooding-climate-change/673106/

#housing #insurance #actuaries #floodplains #climatechange #middleclass #datascience #FAFO #scientificmethod

#housing #insurance #actuaries #floodplains #climatechange #middleclass