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848 results for “pyOpenSci”
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#sicurezzaStradale, una delle strategie per distrarre da soluzioni strutturali che funzionano è incentivare dispositivi tecnologici per la sicurezza sempre nuovi.
Il problema è che spesso i vantaggi vengono riassorbiti da una maggiore propensione al rischio di chi guida, come succede con l'ABS.
"L'ingegnerizzazione per la sicurezza dei veicoli 'a prova d'idiota' ha l'effetto di generare idioti alla guida"
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HBC BRIGADES JOURNAL, 1826:
"It was too late when we reached the west end to proceed any farther, and we were under the necessity of passing the night amongst these rascally Indians. Their propensity to theft is such that nothing is safe which they have an opportunity of taking. Although a Strict watch was kept, they contrived to steal a Capot and Hat from the Men. We procured from these people, and those at the Chutes, an abundant stock of Salmon... #HistoricJourney #WAHistory #AmWriting -
No Man's Sky enfin platiné ! 💪
Reste à atteindre le centre de la Galaxie : Avec ma propension à tout explorer avec minutie, c'est loin d'être gagné...
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Réécrire l'histoire du rugby fauteuil en 2 leçons : aujourd'hui, je vous parle d'un exemple subtil de l'hégémonie culturelle valide, et de sa propension à réécrire nos histoires, pour validifier les parasports (ici) et (plus généralement) effacer la culture handie.
https://cripamphibie.wordpress.com/2024/09/03/reecrire-lhistoire-du-rugby-fauteuil-en-2-lecons/
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Politicians and corporations laying people off or under paying workers, seem to have forgotten about the most basic economic concept of the marginal propensity to consume. Literally, if we pay people a living wage, they can spend more on our products and services. #TaxTheWealthy #LivingWage #NoKleptocrats #NoOligarchs
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@HiroProtagonist #carefulWhatYouAskFor we have an infinite capacity for depravity.
I remember JP Farrel talking about the (possibly) intentionally shortened life-span of h spaiens-sapiens a a built in timeout for our propensity to evil.
We're a country with third world political dynamics ... and nukes.
Happy Weimar, Amerika! https://duckduckgo.com/?q=weimar+decadence&iar=images&ia=images&iax=images
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On a separate note, with the widespread use of steroids in the treatment for CoViD 19, I wonder if there was a big jump in conversion of bradyzoites to tachyzoites?
Positive Toxoplasma IgG Serology Is Associated with Increased Overall Mortality – A Propensity Score–Matched Analysis
https://www.ajtmh.org/view/journals/tpmd/110/2/article-p238.xml#infectiousdiseases #infectiousdisease #PublicHealth #Zoonosis #toxoplasmosis
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Rudolph the brown nose annoyed the elves so much they boycotted him. Santa replaced him with a new Rudolph who had a propensity for the odd tipple - hence the red nose.
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Simple Wi-Fi Cat Door Solves the Extra Critter Problem, and Nothing More - Anyone with an outdoor cat in their life knows their propensity for bringing home ... - https://hackaday.com/2022/11/02/simple-wi-fi-cat-door-solves-the-extra-critter-problem-and-nothing-more/ #rackandpinion #homehacks #catdoor #critter #esp2866 #stepper #feline #lock #cat
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do the nuisance functionals in the EIF "completely" characterize an estimand from an identification pov?
i.e. to characterize the ATE i only need to think about the propensity score and the conditional expectation of the outcome. is this general / is there some nice way to express it?
#semiparametrics #eif #causalinference #statistics #statstwitter
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"Another key parameter in CAR T cell infusion products is the ratio of CD4:CD8 T cell subsets. Yet, it is unclear whether CD4+ and CD8+ CAR T cells have the same propensity to induce CRS. This is particularly relevant since CD4:CD8 ratios can vary extensively in distinct infusion products."
#Immunology #immunotherapy #CARTCells
https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-3791(23)00314-2
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I have fought a battle against undermount drawer slides, specsheet in metric, my brain and tools in imperial, my propensity towards clumsiness & have emerged victorious...atleast I think I have. Tomorrow to use this drawer as template and make 2 drawers + 6 pullout shelves and then install all four cabinets so they sorta look like kitchen island.
Question for the experienced woodworkers/cabinet makers....does one ever grow out of clumsiness?
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I have fought a battle against undermount drawer slides, specsheet in metric, my brain and tools in imperial, my propensity towards clumsiness & have emerged victorious...atleast I think I have. Tomorrow to use this drawer as template and make 2 drawers + 6 pullout shelves and then install all four cabinets so they sorta look like kitchen island.
Question for the experienced woodworkers/cabinet makers....does one ever grow out of clumsiness?
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I have fought a battle against undermount drawer slides, specsheet in metric, my brain and tools in imperial, my propensity towards clumsiness & have emerged victorious...atleast I think I have. Tomorrow to use this drawer as template and make 2 drawers + 6 pullout shelves and then install all four cabinets so they sorta look like kitchen island.
Question for the experienced woodworkers/cabinet makers....does one ever grow out of clumsiness?
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I have fought a battle against undermount drawer slides, specsheet in metric, my brain and tools in imperial, my propensity towards clumsiness & have emerged victorious...atleast I think I have. Tomorrow to use this drawer as template and make 2 drawers + 6 pullout shelves and then install all four cabinets so they sorta look like kitchen island.
Question for the experienced woodworkers/cabinet makers....does one ever grow out of clumsiness?
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I have fought a battle against undermount drawer slides, specsheet in metric, my brain and tools in imperial, my propensity towards clumsiness & have emerged victorious...atleast I think I have. Tomorrow to use this drawer as template and make 2 drawers + 6 pullout shelves and then install all four cabinets so they sorta look like kitchen island.
Question for the experienced woodworkers/cabinet makers....does one ever grow out of clumsiness?
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A friend noticed this new drum accessory set for R series droids. The description on the back says it includes an exclusive personality chip. Hope that doesn't mean it gives the droid the propensity to spontaneously combust. #DroidDepot #BlackSpireOutpost #GalaxysEdge #StarWarsGalaxysEdge #Batuu #Disneyland
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A friend noticed this new drum accessory set for R series droids. The description on the back says it includes an exclusive personality chip. Hope that doesn't mean it gives the droid the propensity to spontaneously combust. #DroidDepot #BlackSpireOutpost #GalaxysEdge #StarWarsGalaxysEdge #Batuu #Disneyland
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A friend noticed this new drum accessory set for R series droids. The description on the back says it includes an exclusive personality chip. Hope that doesn't mean it gives the droid the propensity to spontaneously combust. #DroidDepot #BlackSpireOutpost #GalaxysEdge #StarWarsGalaxysEdge #Batuu #Disneyland
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A friend noticed this new drum accessory set for R series droids. The description on the back says it includes an exclusive personality chip. Hope that doesn't mean it gives the droid the propensity to spontaneously combust. #DroidDepot #BlackSpireOutpost #GalaxysEdge #StarWarsGalaxysEdge #Batuu #Disneyland
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I uploaded the Sun Dwarf class to the Moon Shadows project page for my #bx #dnd #ose #osr campaign setting. Of the 5 varieties of dwarf in the Moon Shadows setting, the sun dwarves are considered the most common and the most typical dwarf. They are stout and sturdy warriors with a keen eye for craftsmanship and a propensity for using protection runes.
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"This is a poor boy who has lost his way--and lost his memory. He doesn't know who he is or where he comes from," explained Van Cheele desperately, glancing apprehensively at the waif's face to see whether he was going to add inconvenient candour to his other savage propensities.
– Saki (H. H. Munro), from “Gabriel-Ernest” (1909)
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Seems like high DHA might be the issue with Afib. I'll do some searching on LCpharmD's posts - hope she moves to mastodon.
" The time course of PIEZO1 inactivation is prolonged by docosahexaenoic acid but reduced by eicosapentaenoic acid. Thus, the net effect will be determined in part by the docosahexaenoic acid:eicosapentaenoic acid ratio. A docosahexaenoic acid–predominant effect would result in PIEZO1 gain-of-function and increased influx of calcium and other cations (Figure [B]). Collectively, these changes would (1) prolong the action potential duration and increase the propensity for delayed after-depolarizations to trigger AF and (2) promote calcium-dependent signaling."
https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.121.058596
FWIW I have found that I can take more fish oil w/o excessive bleed time if I take 100 mcg of K1 daily. The K1 also helps with palpitations whereas K2 seemed to worsen them.
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CW: Falwell not being very christian
Falwell’s Downfall: The Pool Boy’s Story - The Bulwark https://www.thebulwark.com/the-pool-attendants-version/
#ChristianHypocrisy
#ChristianGOP"In 2018, a real estate–related lawsuit in Miami attracted the attention of a Buzzfeed News reporter, who was intrigued to find then–Liberty University president Jerry Falwell Jr. sharing his previously-reported ownership of a local hostel with a pool attendant named Giancarlo Granda. That story marked the beginning of a yearslong scandal that culminated in Falwell—a major Donald Trump ally whose endorsement helped move the needle among evangelicals for the former president’s 2016 campaign—outed as a cuckold, a secret alcoholic, and a cynic about his professed Christian faith. Falwell resigned from Liberty University under pressure in August 2020, embarrassing the school’s board, who had offered Falwell a free reign and their unqualified support for more than a decade.
...making the Falwells’ denials even harder to believe. Granda himself is a likable and winning narrator of the scandal, frank and unforced in his interviews. Having been a supporting player in earlier versions of the story that centered on the prominent evangelical couple, Granda’s comments add nuance to the story and emphasize the significant power differential between himself and the Falwells. It is impossible, for example, to forget his youth: Granda was only 20 years old when he met them. What 20-year-old in Granda’s situation would have known what they were getting themselves into? It is hard to avoid the conclusion that the couple knew just what they were doing when they invited him into their complicated lives.
In March 2012, Granda was working poolside at the Fontainebleau Hotel in Miami when, as he tells it, Becki Falwell, a guest who had been ogling him, asked him to come by her room later—and in case the purpose wasn’t clear enough, she mentioned that her husband would want to watch. Making arrangements from a blocked number later that day, Becki invited Granda to meet at a nearby Days Inn to make sure their liaison wouldn’t happen at the same hotel where their kids were staying. Granda alleges that Jerry was waiting with pants unzipped when Becki welcomed him into the room. The encounter would mark the beginning of an alleged six-year-long affair that saw Granda joining the family on vacations and becoming well known to the Falwells’ children, who unassumingly joked about Becki’s propensity for disappearing during their trips.
The relationship was a personal boon for Granda, who benefitted materially and socially from his connection to the Falwell family. He stayed at their Lynchburg farm, traveled frequently with them, and met numerous members of their larger circle. In September 2012, only six months after he first met Becki, Granda was on campus at Liberty when he met Donald Trump.
The aforementioned business deal, which gave Granda a 25 percent equity stake in the Miami hostel, would come about in 2013, the result of Falwell’s offers to help Granda financially and jumpstart his career. Details of Granda’s affair with Falwells were first hinted at when a local real estate broker refiled a previously dismissed claim in August 2017 against Granda’s stake in the hostel that named both Granda and Falwell.
At the time of the original filing two years earlier, the broker’s lawyer privately alleged to Granda that he had compromising photos of Granda and Becki, which led to Granda asking for help from Jerry, who reached out to Michael Cohen, then Donald Trump’s lawyer/“fixer.” Cohen intervened and took possession of the photos as a favor—he had known the Falwells since 2011—then called in the favor by pushing Falwell to endorse Trump in the 2016 election. Falwell would then become a staunch Trump ally and defender amid the latter’s moral crises, including the publication of the Access Hollywood tape, and he helped consolidate evangelical support for Trump’s campaign. Corben makes sure the viewer understands the import of this by heavy-handedly interspersing Falwell’s increasingly volatile remarks with footage of Trump’s scandalous actions and behaviors while in office, as though to say: See, evangelical hypocrisy is why we are at risk of losing our democracy!
While Falwell’s wholehearted embrace, under threat of scandal, of Donald Trump may have influenced the 2016 election, this focus on grand, simple narratives prevents Corben from entering more deeply into the strange and fraught realities of the Falwell story. These were especially apparent to those of us who were on campus to see how that story played out in real time."
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Discrimination against #trans #Olympians has roots in #NaziGermany
The forgotten #Olympic history of trans athletes.
by Alex Abad-Santos
Aug 1, 2024"[In Michael Waters’s book, "The Other Olympians: Fascism, Queerness, and the Making of Modern Sports"] Waters’s traces the emergence of #ZdeněkKoubek, a track and field star representing the country formerly known as Czechoslovakia who, at 21, won two medals — a gold in the 800m and a bronze in the long jump — at the 1934 Women’s World Games. (The Women’s World Games was the precursor to women competing at the Olympics). In 1935, Koubek announced that he would be living life as a man and swiftly became an international celebrity.
"Waters also pinpoints where and when that changed, specifically at the 1936 Olympics in #NaziGermany. Armed with a propensity for #eugenics, #GenderAnxiety, and a startling lack of scientific evidence, a small set of Nazi officials influenced the International Olympic Committee into #GenderSurveillance and #TransPanic — stuff that eerily mirrors the #transphobic attacks that athletes, cis and trans alike, face today."
Read more:
https://www.vox.com/culture/364032/trans-athletes-olympics-2024?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us -
La variole a été éradiquée dans les années septante. Les campagnes de vaccination ont alors cessé. Donc, les moins de cinquante ans ne sont pas immunisé·es contre le #mpox.
Des moyens rapides de traitement permettent de passer de 10% à 1% de létalité (propension à faire mourir, probabilité de mourir à l'échelle de la population).L'extraction minière pour la transition électrique est particulièrement propice à la création et à l'exportation de nouvelles maladies. Une #syndémie peut être définie comme un environnement social et écologique optimal pour générer et propulser des épidémies.
Dr Camille Besombes : "Il y a une épidémie d'épidémies. On est rentré dans une nouvelle ère : il y a une multiplication des émergences infectieuses. […] Il y a eu une émergence d'Ebola dans ce même contexte économique et social, qu'est le Kivu."
#transition #extraction #guerreCivile #milices #VSS #prostitution #famine #cuivre #lithium #mines #bois #épidémies #épidémie #pandémie #criseSanitaire #variole #varioleDuSinge #conseilPodcast #FranceCulture #Kivu #Congo #RDC #CentreAfrique #RCA #RépubliqueCentrafricaine #Nigeria #Ebola #VIH #SIDA #COVID19 #virus #maladies #servicesPublics #santé #écologie #médecine #internes #vaccins #MST #mondialisation #mobilité #exportations #libreÉchange #anal #génital #buccal #vue #rongeurs #moustiques
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Do near death experiences have a scientific explanation?
There are many smart people in the scientific community who consider near death experiences (or recalled experiences of death RED), to be caused by purely physiological reactions.
A recent, much shared, paper1 hypothesised exactly this, proposing that NDE’s result from a combination of physiological and psychological threat responses:
NDEs can result from impaired cerebral blood flow causing systemic hypotension, hypoxia and hypercapnia resulting in acidosis, and from increased neuronal excitability causing dysregulation of key neurotransmitter systems.
[…]
NDEs might be partially shaped by top–down processes and facilitated by non-pathological cognitive traits such as dissociation propensity.The evolutionary roots of NDEs are thought to be linked to survival and coping mechanisms, with serotonin probably mediating calming effects through 5-HT1A receptors and contributing to hallucinogenic aspects through 5-HT2A receptor hyperactivation.
—Martial, C et al (2025).
Now, a new paper just published, aims to provide an antithesis to these arguments.
A Neuroscientific Model of Near-Death Experiences Reconsidered (pdf).
We cite important NDE elements that remain unexplained
by that model, as well as empirical data that are incompatible with it. We respectfully
suggest that, taken together, these points generate sufficient doubts to merit reconsideration of the completeness of that overarching model and suggest that a more comprehensive treatment of the literature would strengthen our understanding of NDEs and
their etiology.–Bruce Greyson and Marieta Pehlivanova
Warning… this is an academic, scientific paper with much medical terminology. Nevertheless, it makes very interesting reading even for a layperson.
As the authors of this paper conclude; it is important to remain open to other than materialist/physiological explanations for NDE’s.
Explanations that are currently unknown or misunderstood.- Martial, C., Fritz, P., Gosseries, O., Bonhomme, V.,
Kondziella, D., Nelson, K., & Lejeune, N. (2025). A
neuroscientific model of near-death experiences.
Nature Reviews Neurology, 21(6), 297–311. https://
doi.org/10.1038/s41582-025-01072-z ↩︎
- Martial, C., Fritz, P., Gosseries, O., Bonhomme, V.,
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Nel 1956 il numero di emigrati italiani verso paesi esteri superò le 200.000 unità
Con il passare del tempo però, si ripresentarono negli ambienti di governo preoccupazioni e perplessità riguardo il futuro del paese. Si cominciarono a ripresentare motivi di forte instabilità; nel giugno del 1953 fallì la legge elettorale maggioritaria, intesa a premiare i partiti della coalizione governativa, e contemporaneamente la figura di De Gasperi venne a mancare, colui che aveva fermamente guidato il paese sulla via della democrazia. Ci si domandò fino a quando avrebbero continuato ad agire alcuni fattori che resero possibile la ricostruzione economica e la restaurazione delle finanze pubbliche; se non si fosse ormai esaurita la spinta nei confronti dell’economia italiana dal recupero nell’epoca post conflitto degli impianti non totalmente utilizzati, dalla ripresa dell’agricoltura e dall’aiuto straordinario apportato dai prestiti americani. A contribuire fortemente a destare perplessità e preoccupazioni era il disavanzo della bilancia commerciale, che registrava saldi positivi solo nei confronti della Germania occidentale e la Svizzera.
Frutto di queste perplessità fu lo “Schema Vanoni”, una politica di piano condivisa alla fine del 1954. Lo Schema varato mirava al raggiungimento di alcuni fondamentali obiettivi nel corso di un decennio e sulla base di una crescita media annua del prodotto interno lordo del 5 per cento. <33 Gli obiettivi fondamentali si possono riassumere nella creazione di quattro milioni di nuovi posti di lavoro nei settori extragricoli, la riduzione del divario fra Nord e Sud del paese e il raggiungimento dell’equilibrio nella bilancia dei pagamenti. Per raggiungere tali obiettivi si rendeva necessario un ingente volume di capitali per favorire l’aumento degli investimenti industriali tramite la formazione di importanti risparmi. Il tutto era particolarmente improbabile, per questo si fece leva sull’espansione dell’edilizia e dei lavori pubblici come principale elemento propulsivo al fine di aumentare l’occupazione, nonché su un massiccio intervento dello Stato al fine di diversificare l’allocazione territoriale delle risorse e di imprimere un impulso agli investimenti. Nel contempo, si sottovalutarono l’incidenza che avrebbero avuto gli aumenti della produttività del lavoro, gli effetti del progresso tecnologico e organizzativo e le economie di scala che si sarebbero generate dallo sviluppo della domanda. <34 Lo Schema Vanoni promuoveva perciò un processo di graduale evoluzione.
In quegli anni l’economia italiana giovò del cambiamento politico-economico, a ragione di chi riteneva che il Paese sarebbe cresciuto vertiginosamente con l’intensificazione degli sforzi a favore di un maggiore accesso a una più vasta area di scambi. La transizione dall’economia autarchica ereditata dal periodo fascista, ad un tipo di economia liberista improntata agli scambi commerciali con gli altri paesi, si stava gradualmente compiendo.
I benefici della liberalizzazione degli scambi
Analizzando la decisione italiana di procedere verso un tipo di economia aperta da un punto di vista puramente teorico, i benefici ricercati, come dimostrato nel corso degli anni, erano sostanzialmente quattro: libero scambio ed efficienza, economie di scala nella produzione, incentivi all’innovazione e all’apprendimento, e intensificazione della concorrenza. Come visto, i dati di crescita dell’economia italiana furono più che positivi, questo perché analizzando il primo beneficio, lo spostamento da un equilibrio con dazi, ad uno con liberi scambi, elimina la perdita di efficienza e accresce il benessere nazionale. Vedendo nello specifico il secondo punto, l’Italia beneficiando di economie di scala, oltre ad aver aumentato la quantità di scambi internazionali, poté giovare di una maggiore disponibilità di varietà a prezzi inferiori. Aumentando gli scambi esteri, l’industria italiana, ebbe la possibilità di misurarsi con le migliori economie occidentali, e ciò ovviamente portò indubbi incentivi all’innovazione e all’apprendimento. Inoltre, gli imprenditori locali sono stimolati a ricercare nuovi mercati per le proprie esportazioni e a difendersi dalla concorrenza delle esportazioni. Questi vantaggi del libero scambio sono spesso chiamati “dinamici”, dato che un’intensificazione della concorrenza e del ritmo di innovazione può richiedere più tempo per manifestare i propri effetti, rispetto all’eliminazione delle distorsioni nella produzione e nel consumo. <35
Vedendo nello specifico il caso italiano, l’età degasperiana, nel 1953, finì insieme al modificarsi dello schema di politica economica temperata che l’aveva contraddistinta. Subentrò a De Gasperi come presidente del Consiglio, in seguito alla sconfitta elettorale della Democrazia cristiana nelle elezioni politiche del 7 giugno 1953, Giuseppe Pella. Pella, molto vicino a Luigi Einaudi, era un forte sostenitore del principio di libertà economica e, perciò, contrario all’interventismo statale, senza però disprezzare qualche lavoro pubblico dovuto ai sovrappiù prodotti dalle aziende. Da un certo punto di vista si potrebbe definire Pella un “monetarista”, in quanto assertore della teoria secondo cui con il controllo dell’offerta di moneta si sarebbe potuto controllare l’aumento del livello generale dei prezzi; i medesimi orientamenti erano condivisi anche da Donato Menichella, divenuto governatore della Banca d’Italia, in seguito all’elezione di Einaudi come presidente della Repubblica nel 1948.
Questo il quadro politico italiano. Italia che tra il 1955 e il 1963 conobbe una fase espansiva senza precedenti, anche se si ritiene che lo sviluppo industriale cominciò già dal 1953. Gli investimenti nell’industria manifatturiera fermi in media al 4,5 per cento del reddito nazionale lordo, salirono nel 1956 al 5,2 per cento, per poi culminare al 6,3 per cento tra il 1962 e il 1963. Il valore aggiunto passò invece nel decennio successivo al 1953, dal 20,6 per cento al 27,6 per cento. <36 Il prodotto dell’industria complessivamente si avvicinò a un indice pari al 47 per cento nella formazione del prodotto lordo privato, mentre il reddito nazionale crebbe con un saggio di aumento annuo del 5,8 per cento.
La bilancia dei pagamenti precedentemente in notevole disavanzo, registrò notevoli miglioramenti; da un disavanzo di 343 milioni di dollari nel 1952 si passò a un avanzo di 745 milioni nel 1959.
Attraverso questi miglioramenti ed altri fattori chiave nel processo di sviluppo industriale, l’Italia si inserì nel movimento ascendente dell’economia europea. Sul finire dell’anno 1962 il saggio di sviluppo italiano era inferiore solo a quello tedesco ed ampiamente superiore ai tassi di crescita di ogni altro paese dell’Europa occidentale. Già negli anni precedenti l’Italia aveva dato segnali di superbi miglioramenti, tant’è che nel decennio fra il 1950 e il 1961 il prodotto lordo nazionale registrò un aumento medio del 6,7 per cento. L’Italia grazie a questa miracolosa fase espansiva riuscì a ridurre sensibilmente il divario rispetto alle maggiori economie occidentali; ridusse il distacco di partenza che perdurava da fine Ottocento con l’Inghilterra, la Germania e la Francia, e superò economie migliori come quelle belga, olandese e svedese. Nel 1962, siderurgia, meccanica, chimica ed elettricità, i quattro settori principali del paese, rappresentavano in Italia il 16,1 per cento dell’offerta finale complessiva rispetto al 23,3 per cento in Germania e al 19,3 per cento in Francia.
Furono molti i fattori ad incidere in questa straordinaria espansione, avvenuta in una situazione di profitti crescenti, senza sensibili movimenti inflazionistici, e con un costante aumento del saldo dei conti con l’estero. Probabilmente il fattore dominante, al quale attribuire l’avvio del processo di rapido sviluppo degli anni Cinquanta, nonostante opinioni contrastanti, fu l’espansione veloce delle esportazioni, agevolata dalla progressiva liberalizzazione degli scambi. L’effetto trainante delle esportazioni, secondo alcuni invece, si vide in misura massiccia solo dopo il 1955. Tali esperti, come Silva, Targetti e Rey, osservarono che tale effetto appunto, agì solo su un numero limitato di settori produttivi (l’industria automobilistica, i prodotti petroliferi, alcuni prodotti tessili, le calzature, la gomma). Secondo questa teoria, a trascinare l’Italia sarebbe stata la spesa pubblica, soprattutto in agricoltura, nell’edilizia e nei trasporti. Negli anni più recenti, invece, esperti come Kregel e Grilli hanno osservato come l’andamento favorevole della bilancia dei pagamenti italiana, che rese possibile un veloce aumento degli investimenti senza creare un disavanzo nei conti con l’estero, fosse connesso all’andamento più che positivo delle ragioni di scambio internazionali, che dava all’economia italiana la possibilità di acquisire materie prime e semilavorati a costi reali decrescenti. Secondo Castronovo invece, il fattore trainante fu la presenza simultanea di condizioni favorevoli quali salari bassi, ampie possibilità di autofinanziamento, bassa conflittualità operaia e un forte arretramento tecnologico, che consentì rapidi aumenti di produttività. Rimanendo su questa teoria, è facile notare come l’industria italiana fece leva su una rilevante ed elastica offerta di braccia per contenere, o calmierare di volta in volta, la domanda salariale e per tenere comunque sotto controllo le vertenze sindacali. <37 Non mancarono, ovviamente, in quegli anni alcuni miglioramenti nell’assetto delle retribuzioni; ma in termini reali gli indici dei salari rimasero pressoché stazionari fra il 1950 e il 1954 e fra il 1956 e il 1961, e a livelli in ogni caso inferiori agli aumenti di produttività. <38 Secondo i calcoli della Banca d’Italia, a un incremento dei salari pari fra il 1953 e il 1961 al 46,9 per cento corrispose una crescita media della produttività dell’84 per cento. Stando alle stime dell’economista americano Stern, l’incremento delle esportazioni italiane fra il 1955 e il 1963 fu dovuto, per quasi il 60 per cento, alla maggiore competitività resa possibile soprattutto dallo scarto fra aumento della produttività e aumento dei costi di lavoro. <39
Nonostante idee e teorie differenti il tema delle esportazioni rimane centrale. La struttura della produzione italiana si ritrovò forzata a seguire l’orientamento che le imprimeva la domanda proveniente dai paesi europei in fase di avanzata industrializzazione. La domanda proveniente dai paesi con un’elevata industrializzazione era un tipo di domanda caratterizzata da beni di consumo di massa e da beni di lusso. Questo tipo di domanda, propria di società caratterizzate da livelli di reddito elevati, forzò l’Italia a fare largo spazio alla produzione di beni di consumo di massa e beni di lusso.
Contemporaneamente mentre l’industria italiana entrò a far parte di quel sistema di economie caratterizzate dalla produzione di massa di beni di consumo durevoli, le altre economie europee e i loro sistemi industriali passarono a produzioni ancora più avanzate. La modernizzazione servì sostanzialmente a mantenere inalterato il distacco dalle altre economie avanzate; nel frattempo nel quadro dell’industria mondiale, le produzioni italiane continuarono a ruotare attorno ai settori con una tecnologia relativamente semplice.
L’apertura degli scambi con l’estero connessa alla necessità di sviluppare una corrente di esportazioni orientata verso i mercati dei paesi industrializzati, diede luogo alla formazione di una struttura produttiva suddivisa in due settori ben distinti; si trattava di due settori caratterizzati ognuno da tecnologie proprie, il primo settore era rappresentato dalle industrie esportatrice, mentre il secondo da attività produttive orientate prevalentemente verso il mercato interno.
Il reddito nazionale subì una vertiginosa crescita, come detto; l’espansione degli investimenti ne fu la componente più dinamica, crescendo a tassi elevati in tutti i settori. <40 Fra il 1951 e il 1962 il tasso di aumento degli investimenti globali a prezzi correnti sfiorò il 10 per cento annuo. La distribuzione dei redditi cambiò a favore dei redditi d’impresa rispetto a quelli da lavoro, con la conseguenza che l’incremento degli investimenti non diede luogo a un uguale aumento della domanda globale. Perciò la propensione media ai consumi da parte della società si ridusse, essendo i percettori di redditi da lavoro i più inclini al consumo, a differenza dei percettori di redditi d’impresa. La diretta conseguenza di tale situazione fu la contrazione dei consumi collettivi, avendo meno frazioni di reddito coloro che erano portati a consumare di più rispetto a coloro che erano portati a consumare meno. In sostanza la pressione della domanda globale diventò minore di quella che l’aumento degli investimenti avrebbe potuto sostenere. Il risultato fu che si evitò il pericolo d’inflazione per eccesso di domanda e che il sistema mantenne un’ottima stabilità monetaria. La lira, oltre a non svalutarsi rispetto alle merci più di quanto non si svalutassero le altre monete, si deprezzò meno, tanto che nel 1958 le fu attribuito l’”Oscar” delle valute, risultando la moneta più stabile fra i paesi occidentali. Invero, i prezzi al consumo crescevano mediamente del 3-4 per cento, fenomeno comune anche ad altri paesi, ma i prezzi all’ingrosso tendevano a rimanere su valori stazionari, salvo oscillazioni ampiamente compensate. Tale stazionarietà dei prezzi contribuì positivamente, favorendo le esportazioni italiane. Contemporaneamente la competitività fece crescere la produzione nei comparti dinamici, mentre in quelli non dinamici, in quanto non orientati all’esportazione ma al mercato interno, la produttività subì un andamento inversamente proporzionale rispetto ai salari.
La necessità di aumentare la produzione e l’efficienza nei comparti esportatori portò al formarsi di numerosi nuovi posti di lavoro e al polarizzarsi della crescita industriale soprattutto in tre regioni: Lombardia, Piemonte e Liguria. Questa concentrazione diede vita a un notevole flusso migratorio dalle regioni del Mezzogiorno e del centro-nord meno sviluppate (il Friuli ad esempio), verso quel polo conosciuto come “triangolo industriale”. La forza lavoro non assorbita a livello nazionale, si spostò verso l’estero; il fenomeno della migrazione esterna non riguardò più le Americhe come ad inizio secolo, bensì gli altri paesi europei. Nel 1956 il numero di emigrati verso paesi esteri superò le 200.000 unità.
Complessivamente quasi due milioni di persone abbandonarono il sud-Italia, pari al 12 per cento, per spostarsi verso il nord del paese o verso altri stati. Non tutti gli emigrati meridionali trovarono impiego presso le industrie, infatti una parte considerevole di essi fu assorbita dal settore terziario come i servizi, la distribuzione commerciale o il pubblico impiego.
Il progresso che l’economia italiana compì tra fine anni Cinquanta e inizio anni Sessanta, fu di tale portata che la crescita del prodotto interno lordo, la produttività totale dei fattori e il prodotto per addetto risultarono i più alti e stabili nella storia del Paese. Nel 1963 gli investimenti fissi lordi raggiunsero in media il 25 per cento del reddito nazionale lordo, mentre il tasso di crescita del Pil superò il 7 per cento. L’Italia fu così paragonata per impatto alla Germania in Europa al Giappone nel mondo. Di pari passo il commercio internazionale subì una brusca impennata, registrando le esportazioni, tra il 1958 e il 1962, un tasso annuo di crescita prossimo al 16 per cento.
Non meno importante fu il cambiamento nella struttura economica nazionale; l’agricoltura cessò di essere il settore dominante e nonostante nel 1950 impiegasse ancora il 40 per cento della forza lavoro e fornisse il 25 per cento dell’intero valore aggiunto, nel 1963 fu superato dal settore industriale e da quello dei servizi.
Tutto ciò influì sulla dilatazione dei consumi e sul progressivo affermarsi di un nuovo stile di vita; un ibrido a metà tra la nuova cultura americana e la cultura italiana. Le città assunsero una nuova fisionomia, in particolare le grandi “capitali” del Nord industriale, con la nascita di interi quartieri popolari, ma anche con la costruzione dei primi grattacieli. La stagione espansiva volgeva così al termine portando con sé cambiamenti strutturali profondi.
[NOTE]
33 Si vedano V. Valli, L’economia e la politica economica italiana (1945-1975), Etas libri, Milano, 1977, pp. 109-110; B. Bottiglieri, La politica economica dell’Italia centrista (1948-1958), Ediz. Comunità, Milano, 1984, pp. 254-255.
34 Si veda al riguardo N. Andreatta, Fattori strategici dello sviluppo tecnico dell’industria italiana, in N. Andreatta et al., Il progresso tecnologico e la società italiana. Effetti economici del progresso tecnologico sull’economia italiana, Giuffrè, Milano, 1962. Invece sui vantaggi assicurati dall’ammodernamento degli impianti, si veda anche S. Leonardi, Schema di interpretazione dello sviluppo italiano in questo dopoguerra, in Critica marxista, luglio-ottobre 1968.
35 Per approfondire le ragioni a favore del libero scambio, e quelle a favore di un tipo di economia chiusa, consultare P. Krugman, M. Obstfeld, a cura di R. Helg, Pearson, 2007.
36 Si veda al riguardo A. Campolongo, Dinamica dell’investimento in Italia 1951-1967, in Moneta e credito, secondo trimestre 1968.
37 Si vedano al riguardo A. Triola, Contributo allo studio dei conflitti di lavoro in Italia, in Economia e lavoro, 1971; A. Cova, Movimento economico, occupazione, retribuzioni in Italia dal 1943 al 1955, in A. Cova et al., Il sindacato nuovo. Politica e organizzazione del movimento sindacale in Italia negli anni 1943-1945, Franco Angeli, Milano, 1981
38 Confrontare con A. Vannutelli, Occupazione e salari dal 1861 al 1961, in A. Fanfani, L’economia italiana dal 1861 al 1961, Milano, Giuffrè, 1961.
39 Si veda R. M. Stern, Composizione merceologica, distribuzione geografica e competitività nel commercio estero italiano nel periodo 1955-1963, in Moneta e credito, 1965.
40 Al riguardo non va trascurato il ruolo del credito a medio e lungo termine praticato da alcune banche specializzate, come la Banca di credito finanziario (Mediobanca), fondata nel 1946 dalle tre banche d’interesse nazionale ( Commerciale, Credito italiano, Banco di Roma), per l’esercizio appunto del credito a medio termine, poi esteso al lungo termine, da effettuarsi per il tramite dei loro sportelli; la Banca centrale di credito popolare (Centrobanca), istituita, essa pure nel 1946, dalle banche popolari per il finanziamento a medio e a lungo termine di imprese commerciali e industriali; l’Istituto centrale per il credito a medio termine a favore delle medie e piccole industrie (Mediocredito centrale), sorto nel 1952 con capitali forniti in prevalenza dallo Stato e con il compito di finanziare i Mediocrediti regionali.
Emanuele Zema, Come l’economia italiana si apre al mondo dopo la ricostruzione, Tesi di Laurea, Università Luiss “Guido Carli”, Anno Accademico 2017-2018#1951 #1953 #1954 #1956 #1962 #dopoguerra #economia #EmanueleZema #emigrati #emigrazione #EzioVanoni #GiuseppePella #governi #industria #Italia #liberalizzazione #ministro #scambi #secondo
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DATE: May 13, 2026 at 06:00PM
SOURCE: PSYPOST.ORG** Research quality varies widely from fantastic to small exploratory studies. Please check research methods when conclusions are very important to you. **
-------------------------------------------------TITLE: Class background influences whether genetic predisposition for intelligence drives you left or right
URL: https://www.psypost.org/how-childhood-class-alters-the-genetic-pathways-of-political-ideology/
A person’s economic political views are shaped by their genetic predisposition for cognitive performance interacting with their childhood social class. People with a higher genetic likelihood for cognitive performance tend to adopt left-wing policies if they grew up poor, and right-wing policies if they grew up wealthy. The research was published in Political Psychology.
Understanding differences in economic policy preferences is a primary goal of political science. Traditional models in political economics assume that individuals will support policies that benefit them financially. In a strictly theoretical system where flat taxes are redistributed equally, anyone earning below the average income should want complete redistribution, while anyone earning above the average should oppose it. While real political systems are messier, the fundamental dynamic generally holds.
Low-income earners tend to benefit from proportional taxation and redistribution, while high-income earners bear the costs. In recent years, researchers have found that genetics also influence political behavior. Studies using various methods have documented genetic overlaps with political preferences. This overlap means that ideological preferences partially share the same genetic architecture as other measurable traits.
Since our distant ancestors did not have modern tax systems or mass political parties, evolutionary forces could not have shaped economic ideology directly. Genetic effects on these preferences must operate through intermediate traits, which scientists call endophenotypes. Some researchers proposed that cognitive performance might act as one of these intermediate traits.
The results of previous studies on cognitive performance and economic ideology, however, have been wildly inconsistent. Some studies showed a positive link between cognitive ability and economic conservatism. Other studies found a negative link, and some found no connection at all.
Rafael Ahlskog, a researcher at the Department of Government at Uppsala University in Sweden, thought these contradictory results could be reconciled. He proposed a gene-environment interaction. This occurs when a specific genetic factor behaves differently depending on the environment surrounding the individual.
Ahlskog theorized that cognitive performance does not push a person toward a specific political ideology on its own. Instead, cognitive capacity helps people analyze complicated policy packages and accurately deduce their own class interests. Modern economies feature vast arrays of diverse taxes, regulations, and benefit programs. Evaluating how these policies interact requires analytical effort.
By applying these conceptual frameworks, the study connects the theories of classical economics with modern genetics. People who find it easy to perform the mental calculations required to navigate tax proposals will optimize their policy preferences. Those who find it more difficult might answer policy questions more randomly, or they might rely on social cues not strictly tied to their personal class background.
In addition to this, political science maintains a long-standing theory regarding the impressionable years in human development. This theory states that environmental influences on attitudes are most potent during late adolescence and early adulthood. After this period, political preferences tend to stick. Based on this, Ahlskog suggested that the perception of one’s class interest is shaped primarily by the relative economic standing of their parents during these formative years.
To test these ideas, Ahlskog analyzed data from a large sample of fraternal twins from the Swedish Twin Registry born between 1943 and 1958. Fraternal twins are siblings born at the same time who share, on average, half of their genetic sequence. Using within-family differences among fraternal twins provides an excellent natural experiment for behavioral researchers.
Researchers value within-family sibling designs because comparing two people from the broader population introduces confounding variables. Between two random strangers, a genetic correlation might be skewed by regional ancestry differences or by the environmental impacts of their parents’ genes. Fraternal twins share the exact same family environment, and their genetic differences result purely from the random shuffling of DNA during conception.
Because of this randomization, systematic downstream differences in sibling behavior have a causal interpretation. Researchers can confidently conclude that the genetic difference caused the behavioral difference, rather than an unmeasured environmental factor.
To conduct the analysis, Ahlskog utilized variation in a genetic measure called a polygenic index. A polygenic index is an individual-level predictor of a specific trait that is based entirely on a person’s DNA. Geneticists build these indices by identifying thousands of tiny DNA variations known as single nucleotide polymorphisms that correlate with a target trait. The index used in this study summarized each twin’s genetic propensity for cognitive performance based on previous large-scale genomic discoveries.
He combined this genetic data with the twins’ responses to an extensive survey conducted by the Swedish Twin Registry between 2009 and 2010. The survey included a detailed battery of over thirty political preference questions. Participants rated policy proposals on a five-point scale ranging from strongly disagree to strongly agree. Ahlskog isolated twelve items specifically dealing with economic ideology, such as opinions on taxation, welfare distribution, the public sector, and government regulation.
To measure family socioeconomic standing, Ahlskog utilized Swedish registry data covering the twins’ parents. He calculated a relative affluence score by comparing the parents’ income and education levels to other adults in their specific local parishes. This provided a localized measure of class background. Sociologists have found that people typically compare their economic status to their immediate neighbors rather than the national average.
When looking at the average effect across the entire sample, the genetic measure for cognitive performance had no impact on economic conservatism. The effect size appeared as practically zero. Without looking deeper, this might seem like a simple lack of an effect.
When Ahlskog factored in the family’s socioeconomic background, the average null effect broke apart to reveal two distinct, opposing trends. Among children raised in relatively poorer families, a higher genetic index for cognitive performance caused more left-wing economic views. These individuals favored higher taxation and wealth redistribution.
Among children from affluent backgrounds, the effect reversed entirely. A higher genetic index among these privileged individuals caused more right-wing views. They favored market reliance and reduced welfare spending. The genetic factor altered how individuals optimized their political views based entirely on their childhood class.
In the scientific taxonomy of gene-environment interactions, researchers often distinguish between dimmer effects and lens effects. A dimmer effect happens when a change in the environment alters the magnitude of a genetic influence, making it stronger or weaker. A lens effect happens when the environment actually changes the direction of the genetic influence. Ahlskog’s findings represent a rare, robust example of a lens effect for a socially relevant behavior.
The researcher also controlled for the twins’ adult income and education levels. The environmental interaction held up even when accounting for later-life resources. This suggests the genetic influence operates specifically on the early-life formation of class identity, not simply on a voter’s current bank account balance.
As a placebo test to verify his theory, Ahlskog applied the same analytical models to social ideology. Social ideology involves cultural and moral issues, such as immigration, criminal justice policy, and animal rights. Unlike economic ideology, there is no direct personal financial benefit to optimizing social preferences based on household class.
In this test, he found that a higher genetic index was naturally associated with lower social conservatism across the board. The effects operated in parallel for both the rich and the poor. There was no interaction based on socioeconomic background.
The study features a few limitations and caveats. The genetic predictor is a noisy measurement that only captures a fraction of the actual heritable traits for cognitive performance. Comparing genetic differences within local twin pairs amplifies this measurement noise even further. As a result, the reported effects are likely much smaller than the actual biological impact.
The geographical and historical realities of the respondent group also matter. The individuals in this sample grew up in Sweden during the middle of the twentieth century, a period defined by the rapid expansion of the modern welfare state. Class-based politics and labor movements were highly salient in their daily lives.
The findings might look completely different in populations where economic ideology is not the primary dividing line in public debate. In political environments where left-wing economic positions are championed by socially conservative populists, the class dynamics could manifest in alternate ways. Finding out which specific political relationships are affected by changing social cultures will require further study.
Ultimately, the findings demonstrate that genetic influences on political behavior are highly contingent on social environments. An effect that appears to be mathematically zero on average can obscure shifting dynamics beneath the surface. This heavy dependency on outside environmental factors functions as a strong argument against genetic determinism.
The study, “Class, genes, and rationality: A gene-environment interaction approach to ideology,” was authored by Rafael Ahlskog.
URL: https://www.psypost.org/how-childhood-class-alters-the-genetic-pathways-of-political-ideology/
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The thread about Marionville; the house that thread built and home to the unfortunate “Fortunate Duellist”
There’s an old Georgian villa in the east of Edinburgh called Marionville. It lends its name to the district, a few streets and a fire station. It’s your typical regular, 3-storey, 5-bay, 6-over-6 window, sandstone job and although it is quite a rarity in a largely 20th century part of town, at first glance it is otherwise unremarkable for Edinburgh.
Marionville. Cc-BY-SA Kim TraynorUnremarkable that is until you find out a little bit about the place’s history! It was built some time between the 1760s and 1780s by the Misses Ramsay of Old Lyon Close, milliners renowned in the burgh for their ribboned hats. When built it was called Viewfrith (as in a house where one could view the Frith, or Firth of Forth. On account of its occupants trade, it was scornfully nicknamed the Lappet Ha‘, lappet referring to the woven lacework that was common in Georgian women’s hats. Ha’ for ball; the house that lappet built. The misses Ramsay saw out their days in their fine house and its gardens, and in October 1780 it was noted as being for sale:
Sale notice for Viewfrith, Caledonian Mercury, October 16 1780About 1786 it passed to one James Macrae of Holmains Esq. who liked to be known as Captain Macrae on account of his service in the 6th Dragoon Guards (Irish Carabiniers), a Hanoverian cavalry regiment. By accounts he was both a sophisticated, cultured charmer and an arrogant, pompous “Goth“. It was Macrae who renamed the house, calling it for his wife, Maria Cecile le Maistre.
Uniforms of horsemen of the Irish Carabiniers (6th Dragoon Guards)Captain Macrae had a quick temper and an overinflated sense of his own status. He was nicknamed the “fortunate duellist” on account of his propensity to call for satisfaction and on not being dead as a result. He practised by firing at a barber’s block kept specially for the purpose, or so John Kay caricatured him.
“The Fortunate Duellist”: caricature of Captain Macrae with an inset image of him practising duelling with the barber’s block, from “Original Portraits and Caricature Etchings” by John Kay, 1799The Macraes soon built up a reputation as a home of the “gayest private theatricals, perhaps in Britain“. Being wealthy and aspirational with tastes “gay and fashionable” they had a 150-seat private theatre built, complete with stage, curtain and scenery in the house where the couple themselves took the starring roles. The great and the good of Edinburgh were invited and the shows were a hot ticket in town, being well reviewed in the papers. The Scots Magazine and Caledonian Mercury were full of gushing praise for them.
Edinburgh Advertiser, May 9 1789Maria Macrae was the daughter of the Swedish ambassador’s wife and had spent time in Paris with her cousins. It was there she got a taste for the private theatricals of the time and it was she who was chiefly responsible for reproducing them at Marionville. The Macrae’s inner circle was a centre of Georgian high fashion in Edinburgh, the women wore head-dresses so tall that they had to “sit on the carriage floor” and the men wore “bright coats with tails to their heels” and “wigs with great side curls“. The innermost of their circle were the Ramsays (no relation to the Misses), Sir George Ramsay of Bamff, 6th Baronet and his wife, Eleanor Fraser. They were “warmly attached and intimate” with the Macraes.
An engraving of Marionville in happier times from Old & New Edinburgh by James Grant.So all was good. Everyone was happy and Marionville was the place to be seen around town. Macrae was highly regarded in the right circles, but his pomposity and temper would be his unravelling. An example of this was when a messenger of the law tried to arrest his cousin, the Reverend John Cunningham, Earl Glencairn, at a private party in Drumsheugh House. Macrae was outraged that a common man would insult a gentleman, and threw the messenger over the stairwell. When it later came to light that Cunningham was a debtor who had refused all chance to settle his obligations and that the messenger had been gravely injured, Macrae made an apology and paid compensation of 300 guineas to settle the matter.
And then we come to the fateful night of April 7th 1790. Captain Macrae had been out at the Theatre Royal, which stood on Shakespeare Square, opposite the General Register Office and where the General Post Office would later be built. Being a gentleman, he was helping a lady to get a chair to convey her home (this meant a sedan chair; at this time were still the principal form of public transport of choice for the moneyed classes around town). He had secured the lady her chair when a liveried footman appeared on the scene and seized one of the poles of the chair to reserve it for his mistress. The outraged Macrae rapped the impertinent servant’s knuckles with his cane.
The Theatre Royal on Shakespeare Square, the corner of Princes Street, North Bridge, Leith Street and what is now Waterloo Place. John Le Conte, 1857. Credit; Edinburgh City LibrariesThe footman, not to be cowed, denounced Macrae as a scoundrel and punched him in the chest. Macrae responded by striking him across the head with his cane. An almighty fracas ensued, sucking in passers-by on both sides. Somehow the conflict was defused and the lady was spirited to safety in another chair. And there it might have ended until Macrae was made aware that the footman in question was an employee of his dear friend, Sir George Ramsay.
A Georgian cartoon of a drunken gentleman fighting with a coachman and footman. Isaac Cruikshank, 1809. © The Trustees of the British MuseumAnd so, the following day Macrae sought out Ramsay at his place of business. His friend informed him that the servant in question was recently engaged by his wife and he felt that he had no hand in the matter. Macrae insisted that he would therefore apologise to the lady at once. Hurrying to the Ramsay’s house on St. Andrew Square, he found her sitting for an up and coming your artist, one Henry Raeburn. Theatrically going down on one knee, Macrae begged forgiveness for having chastised her servant. And there it would have ended. But…
A few days later at Marionville, an anonymous letter arrived stating that Macrae had meddled with the “Knights of the Shoulder Knot” (the name given to footmen for their elaborate uniforms) and they would have their revenge for the insult to their brother. The footman in question, James Merry, took the matter further by making it known he would take legal proceedings against his assailant for the injuries he had suffered. Piqued, Macrae wrote to Ramsay and demanded that the man be put in his place and discharged. For whatever reason, Ramsay declined to satisfy his friend and their relationship quickly soured as the two engaged in a protracted series of increasingly intemperate letters. This culminated in Macrae having his messenger inform Ramsay that he was not a gentleman, but a scoundrel!
Georgian caricature of a foppish, arrogant footman. George Moutard Woodward, 1799. © The Trustees of the British MuseumThat was that! Macrae had overstepped the mark for sure, Ramsay was a proper gentleman, with a title, not someone you could go around insulting. The intermediary, one Captain Amory, arranged a meeting of both parties in Bayle’s Tavern at which “rough epithets were exchanged“. The outcome was inevitable and satisfaction was demanded by Macrae. But he let it be known that he considered Ramsay the challenger, for refusing to deal with his servant.
The time and place was set for the shore outside of Musselburgh at noon the next day. What better place to settle your differences than in the cool sea breeze of the Honest Toun? And so it was that the next day the two gentlemen, each with another in tow as second, met at Wards Inn off of the Musselburgh Links. A surgeon, Benjamin Bell, was sensibly arranged for.
Benjamin Bell (left), following a different duelist on his way to Musselburgh to settle a score. Bell must have been the go-to man for calling to a duel. The woman heading the other way is a salter, carrying her load in a basket, supported by a leather strap around her head. From John Kay’s caricatures, Vol. 2. Credit; Edinburgh City LibrariesA parlay took place to see if things could be settled amicably, without either side losing face. Macrae demanded that if Ramsay dismiss his servant he would apologise profusely for all that had followed and consider it closed. Ramsay demanded an apology first, before any further progress could be made. Both sides were intransigent. The seconds which each side had brought as counsel declined further compromise and the course of action was now set. Each man took a pistol from a pair and made his way to the allotted spot on the Links. Each then walked 14 paces away from the other and the duel commenced. Ramsay shot first and nicked the collar of his late friend, grazing the neck. Macrae did not miss and Ramsay was mortally wounded. Macrae would later claim that he had planned to shoot high and miss on purpose, but was so outraged that Ramsay had not deliberately missed and had drawn blood that he decided to settle the matter once and for all by not missing. For a sure shot like Macrae, the outcome was inevitable.
“The Duel”, a cartoon in the style of Kay by amateur Edinburgh artist J. Jenkins in 1805. CC-BY 4.0 National Library of ScotlandThe deed done, Macrae was suddenly remorseful and had to be convinced to leave his dying friends’ side by Ramsay’s second, Sir William Maxwell. Edinburgh society was outraged and it was Macrae, the lower status gentleman that they squarely blamed for this calamity. Being a proper class scandal, the detail was all printed at the time (then, as now, controversy was good for sales) and Macrae was immortalised as “The Fortunate Duellist” by Edinburgh caricaturist John Kay. By trade Kay was a barber, so the story of the practice target may have appealed to him as much as the chance to satirise events.
Facing a potential murder charge, Macrae abandoned Marionville and his family and fled to Paris accompanied by his second, Captain Amory. They took up lodgings in the Hôtel de la Dauphine. A summons soon arrived from Edinburgh to return and face the law. Ignoring it, both were declared outlaws and consigned themselves to live out their days in exile. To add insult to Macrae’s injury, 2 years later the Sheriffs awarded damages and compensation to the footman for his original injuries, which were paid from Macrae’s estate in his absence. Macrae stayed in Paris until the coming of the French revolution compelled his to flee further, this time to Altona in Italy. He had hoped that the passage of time would allow him to return home to Marionville, but society and the law were resolved against it.
And so it was that the gayest house in town fell into “an air of depression and melancholy such as could barely fail to strike the most unobservant passenger“. It was advertised as being to let in 1793 and the following year it was for sale. Macrae was soon forgotten by the chattering classes of Edinburgh. That is until 1814, when publisher Robert Chambers relates that “a gentleman of my acquaintance was surprised to meet him one day in a Parisian coffee house“. “The wreck or ghost of the handsome, sprightly man he had once been.” “The comfort of his home, his country and his friends, the use of his talents to all these, had been lost, and himself obliged to lead the life of a condemned Cain, all through the one fault of a fiery temper“.
Captain Macrae, late of Marionville, died alone in Paris on the 16th January 1820, 30 years an exile from his home, wife and 2 children. “Captain Macrae was a strange character. To those of his own class a tyrant and bully. To those below him he was kind and obliging”. At this time his old house was in the possession of a Mr and Mrs Dudgeon although it was for sale again shortly after, the new owner being Walter Stirling Glas, esq. The house was repeatedly for sale and let throughout the 19th century. A flick through some old Post Office directories enlightens us that from approximately 1858 to 1869, it was being used by Dr. Guthrie’s “Original Ragged Industrial School” .
In 1932, Marionville was purchased by the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Edinburgh and St. Andrews for use as the manse for St. Ninian’s & Triduana’s Church, which was built in the grounds at this time. Its last occupant before the church took it over would appear to be one Miss W. Crawford Brown and the house was sold back into private use within the past few years. The church, which was never actually completed to the intended design, is surprisingly the work of that most British of British architects, Sir Giles Gilbert Scott (of red telephone box and Battersea power station fame).
St. Ninian’s & Triduana’s R.C. church in the grounds of Marionville.Note to readers: unfortunately in April 2026, a third-party plug-in more than exceeded its authority and broke many of the image links on this site. No images were lost but I will have to restore them page-by-page, which may take some time. In the meantime please bear with me while I go about rectifying this issue.
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