#causal-inference — Public Fediverse posts

Clear Cut Logging Can Dramatically Increase Flood Risk
--
https://theconversation.com/new-study-finds-clear-cut-logging-can-dramatically-increase-flood-risk-284825 <-- shared technical media article
--
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2026.123895 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @Daniel Pierce | Ramshackle Pictures
“Here is a clear and simple breakdown of some of the latest bombshell findings out of the UBC Hydrology Lab… using a probabilistic framework, known as attribution science in the climate world. [The researchers] studied two watersheds in BC's Okanagan Valley near Summerland. In this area, they found that climate change was actually making the frequency of floods go down, but forest harvesting counteracted the effects of climate change and increased the flood risk by 10-fold (!!!) turning a 20-year flood into a flood that occurs every two years. [The H/T] truly want to know how the BC government and timber industry are responding to this new science internally. They're absolutely silent on it in public as they continue business as usual…”
#Nonstationary #Probabilisticphysics #Foresthydrology #Floodfrequencyanalysis #Snowmelt #Causalinference #flood #flooding #forest #forestry #water #hydrology #OkanaganValley #watershed #BC #Canada #BritishCanada #clearcut #logging #harvesting #practices #climatechange #extremeweather #humanimpacts #caseexamples #floodrisk #risk #hazard #probabilistic #framework #attributionscience #policy #planning
#UniversityofBritishColumbia | #GovernmentofBritishColumbia

Clear Cut Logging Can Dramatically Increase Flood Risk
--
https://theconversation.com/new-study-finds-clear-cut-logging-can-dramatically-increase-flood-risk-284825 <-- shared technical media article
--
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2026.123895 <-- shared paper
--
H/T @Daniel Pierce | Ramshackle Pictures
“Here is a clear and simple breakdown of some of the latest bombshell findings out of the UBC Hydrology Lab… using a probabilistic framework, known as attribution science in the climate world. [The researchers] studied two watersheds in BC's Okanagan Valley near Summerland. In this area, they found that climate change was actually making the frequency of floods go down, but forest harvesting counteracted the effects of climate change and increased the flood risk by 10-fold (!!!) turning a 20-year flood into a flood that occurs every two years. [The H/T] truly want to know how the BC government and timber industry are responding to this new science internally. They're absolutely silent on it in public as they continue business as usual…”
#Nonstationary #Probabilisticphysics #Foresthydrology #Floodfrequencyanalysis #Snowmelt #Causalinference #flood #flooding #forest #forestry #water #hydrology #OkanaganValley #watershed #BC #Canada #BritishCanada #clearcut #logging #harvesting #practices #climatechange #extremeweather #humanimpacts #caseexamples #floodrisk #risk #hazard #probabilistic #framework #attributionscience #policy #planning
#UniversityofBritishColumbia | #GovernmentofBritishColumbia

Three legs are needed for deductive causal inference:
"Without assumptions regarding construct validity, one cannot accurately label the cause or outcome. Without assumptions regarding external validity, one cannot label the conditions enabling the cause to have an effect. If any of the assumptions regarding internal, construct, and external validity are missing, the claim is not deductively supported. The critical role of theoretical and substantive knowledge in deductive causal inference is illuminated by making such assumptions explicit. This article critically reviews approaches to identification in causal inference while developing a framework called causal specification. Causal specification augments existing identification strategies to enable and justify deductive, generalized claims about causes and effects. In the process, we review a variety of developments in the philosophy of science and causality and interdisciplinary social science methodology."

Esterling, K., Brady, D. & Schwitzgebel, E. (2025). "The necessity of construct and external validity for deductive causal inference" https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2024-0002

#logics #validity #deduction #generalization #identification #causality #correlations #ProofTheory #PhilSci #truth #causalInference #socialScience

Three legs are needed for deductive causal inference:
"Without assumptions regarding construct validity, one cannot accurately label the cause or outcome. Without assumptions regarding external validity, one cannot label the conditions enabling the cause to have an effect. If any of the assumptions regarding internal, construct, and external validity are missing, the claim is not deductively supported. The critical role of theoretical and substantive knowledge in deductive causal inference is illuminated by making such assumptions explicit. This article critically reviews approaches to identification in causal inference while developing a framework called causal specification. Causal specification augments existing identification strategies to enable and justify deductive, generalized claims about causes and effects. In the process, we review a variety of developments in the philosophy of science and causality and interdisciplinary social science methodology."

Esterling, K., Brady, D. & Schwitzgebel, E. (2025). "The necessity of construct and external validity for deductive causal inference" https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2024-0002

#logics #validity #deduction #generalization #identification #causality #correlations #ProofTheory #PhilSci #truth #causalInference #socialScience

#Causalinference for complex exposures: asking questions that matter, getting answers that help. | PPTX

https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/causal-inference-for-complex-exposures-asking-questions-that-matter-getting-answers-that-help/250778905

#Causalinference for complex exposures: asking questions that matter, getting answers that help. | PPTX

https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/causal-inference-for-complex-exposures-asking-questions-that-matter-getting-answers-that-help/250778905

I’ve been trying to read more carefully about instrumental variables and make up my mind about when IV arguments are scientifically convincing.

Here's a tension I keep running into:

Should the scientific question alone determine the causal parameter of interest?

Or is it legitimate for the target parameter to reflect an interplay between scientific interest and the identifying assumptions we actually find tenable?

IVs can be difficult to interpret when instruments are weak, who “compliers” are is opaque, exclusion restrictions are debatable, or linear models are used in settings where the true data-generating process may be nonlinear.

On the other hand, when an entire body of (aspirationally causal) literature rests on methods that try to close backdoor paths, IVs offer a genuinely different identification strategy. That seems valuable for evidence triangulation, even if IV analyses have their criticisms.

What do you think? Are you a big IV proponent? Are you an IV critic?

When do you find IV evidence persuasive?

Some literature I've been reading & re-reading:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16755261/

https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/47/4/1289/3095892

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4285626/

https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.09332

https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.05639

#CausalInference #InstrumentalVariables #Econometrics #Statistics #DataScience #HealthPolicy

I’ve been trying to read more carefully about instrumental variables and make up my mind about when IV arguments are scientifically convincing.

Here's a tension I keep running into:

Should the scientific question alone determine the causal parameter of interest?

Or is it legitimate for the target parameter to reflect an interplay between scientific interest and the identifying assumptions we actually find tenable?

IVs can be difficult to interpret when instruments are weak, who “compliers” are is opaque, exclusion restrictions are debatable, or linear models are used in settings where the true data-generating process may be nonlinear.

On the other hand, when an entire body of (aspirationally causal) literature rests on methods that try to close backdoor paths, IVs offer a genuinely different identification strategy. That seems valuable for evidence triangulation, even if IV analyses have their criticisms.

What do you think? Are you a big IV proponent? Are you an IV critic?

When do you find IV evidence persuasive?

Some literature I've been reading & re-reading:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16755261/

https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/47/4/1289/3095892

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4285626/

https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.09332

https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.05639

#CausalInference #InstrumentalVariables #Econometrics #Statistics #DataScience #HealthPolicy

Correlation patterns can shift the moment the world changes. Data science that doesn't grapple with causal inference is just sophisticated curve-fitting, mistaking pattern recognition for true understanding. Without causality, models are brittle and explanations are hollow. #datascience #causalinference #statistics

Postdoc in Single-Cell and Spatial Multi-Omic Gene Regulatory Networks
UMass Chan Medical School

Decode #GeneRegulatoryNetwork from #SingleCell multiomics with #CausalInference and #MachineLearning as a #postdoc! No biomed bg needed.

See the full job description on jobRxiv: https://jobrxiv.org/job/umass-chan-medical-school-27778-postdoc-in-single-cel...
https://jobrxiv.org/job/umass-chan-medical-school-27778-postdoc-in-single-cell-and-spatial-multi-omic-gene-regulatory-networks/?fsp_sid=11689

Postdoc in Single-Cell and Spatial Multi-Omic Gene Regulatory Networks
UMass Chan Medical School

Decode #GeneRegulatoryNetwork from #SingleCell multiomics with #CausalInference and #MachineLearning as a #postdoc! No biomed bg needed.

See the full job description on jobRxiv: https://jobrxiv.org/job/umass-chan-medical-school-27778-postdoc-in-single-cel...
https://jobrxiv.org/job/umass-chan-medical-school-27778-postdoc-in-single-cell-and-spatial-multi-omic-gene-regulatory-networks/?fsp_sid=11689

On FTL and causality: add new time. Light vortices look a lot like a light cone on a time-space diagram to me.

Do photons have spin...? Long Covid sucks.

While we all live in a money-obsessed hellscape, nothing needs "utility" to be worth testing or knowing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

#Summary #Precis #Abstract #Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

On FTL and causality: add new time. Light vortices look a lot like a light cone on a time-space diagram to me.

Do photons have spin...? Long Covid sucks.

While we all live in a money-obsessed hellscape, nothing needs "utility" to be worth testing or knowing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

#Summary #Precis #Abstract #Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

9:40 ok, I get we all live in a money-obsessed hellscape, but nothing needs to be "useful" in order to be worth learning about, appreciating, or observing at all.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

#Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

9:40 ok, I get we all live in a money-obsessed hellscape, but nothing needs to be "useful" in order to be worth learning about, appreciating, or observing at all.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

#Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

But yeah, I am confused about the polaritons. 
(Polaritrons? I'm not hearing stuff / processing audio precisely, lately. ) Light has a shape? Or, like, a shape in time? Cuz that -3, -2, -1, 0, +1, +2, +3 image looks a lot like a light cone on a time-space diagram. To me, at least. The things with the light at diagonal lines in space.

Wait. Spin? Do photons have spin? I'm gonna get a used copy of my uni textbook off someone and try to remember anything. Yaaay Long Covid! (Twice, Doubled, or Squared! Per your preference.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

#Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

But yeah, I am confused about the polaritons. 
(Polaritrons? I'm not hearing stuff / processing audio precisely, lately. ) Light has a shape? Or, like, a shape in time? Cuz that -3, -2, -1, 0, +1, +2, +3 image looks a lot like a light cone on a time-space diagram. To me, at least. The things with the light at diagonal lines in space.

Wait. Spin? Do photons have spin? I'm gonna get a used copy of my uni textbook off someone and try to remember anything. Yaaay Long Covid! (Twice, Doubled, or Squared! Per your preference.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

#Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

On how faster-than-light info would affect (our understanding of) causality: "And then nothing makes sense anymore." Since when has science stopped testing things that seemed "unintuitive" on the first pass? 
Wouldn't that just sort itself out, and then we'd make new inferences to test? Cuz it sounds like an additional dimension of time would be useful here. Which... is probably a meme. "Just add a new dimension!" Ok yeah, but what if we did tho. (Eddie Woo intensifies.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

#Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

On how faster-than-light info would affect (our understanding of) causality: "And then nothing makes sense anymore." Since when has science stopped testing things that seemed "unintuitive" on the first pass? 
Wouldn't that just sort itself out, and then we'd make new inferences to test? Cuz it sounds like an additional dimension of time would be useful here. Which... is probably a meme. "Just add a new dimension!" Ok yeah, but what if we did tho. (Eddie Woo intensifies.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1RVRB9X3H0

#Physics #Microscopy #Light #EM #Fields #ParticlePhysics #Energy #science #ScienceMastodon #ScientificMethods #learning #testing #experiments #experimentation #LightVortices #LightVortex #CausalInference #Causality #IDFK

New study uses causal inference to demonstrate that we would avoid 20 % methane emissions if one commodity was replaced.
I have just published a preprint article at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19019693

#decoupling #agriculture #beef #cattle #carbon #causality #causalInference #causation #confounding #counterFactuals #emissions #GHG #methane #offPolicy #policy #publicPolicy #vegan #climateChange #GreenhouseForcing #greenhouseEffect

New study uses causal inference to demonstrate that we would avoid 20 % methane emissions if one commodity was replaced.
I have just published a preprint article at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19019693

#decoupling #agriculture #beef #cattle #carbon #causality #causalInference #causation #confounding #counterFactuals #emissions #GHG #methane #offPolicy #policy #publicPolicy #vegan #climateChange #GreenhouseForcing #greenhouseEffect

New study uses causal analysis to demonstrate big reductions in carbon emissions if fewer bovines.
In ten years, methane emissions from all activities if bovine stop would be 80 % of methane emissions from all activities if no intervention.
Results and causation are presented at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19019693

#carbon #causality #causalInference #causation #confounding #counterFactuals #emissions #GHG #methane #offPolicy #policy #publicPolicy

New study uses causal analysis to demonstrate big reductions in carbon emissions if fewer bovines.
In ten years, methane emissions from all activities if bovine stop would be 80 % of methane emissions from all activities if no intervention.
Results and causation are presented at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19019693

#carbon #causality #causalInference #causation #confounding #counterFactuals #emissions #GHG #methane #offPolicy #policy #publicPolicy

Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and Regression for Causal Inference
by Susan Alber (2022) https://health.ucdavis.edu/media-resources/ctsc/documents/pdfs/directed-acyclic-graphs20220209.pdf

#intervention #policy #causality #causalInference #stats #statistics #counterFactuals #probabilities #causation #confounding #DAG #DAGs #graphs

Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and Regression for Causal Inference
by Susan Alber (2022) https://health.ucdavis.edu/media-resources/ctsc/documents/pdfs/directed-acyclic-graphs20220209.pdf

#intervention #policy #causality #causalInference #stats #statistics #counterFactuals #probabilities #causation #confounding #DAG #DAGs #graphs

Postdoc in Single-Cell and Spatial Multi-Omic Gene Regulatory Networks
UMass Chan Medical School

Decode #GeneRegulatoryNetwork from #SingleCell multiomics with #CausalInference and #MachineLearning as a #postdoc! No biomed bg needed.

See the full job description on jobRxiv: https://jobrxiv.org/job/umass-chan-medical-school-27778-postdoc-in-single-cel...
https://jobrxiv.org/job/umass-chan-medical-school-27778-postdoc-in-single-cell-and-spatial-multi-omic-gene-regulatory-networks/?fsp_sid=11057

Postdoc in Single-Cell and Spatial Multi-Omic Gene Regulatory Networks
UMass Chan Medical School

Decode #GeneRegulatoryNetwork from #SingleCell multiomics with #CausalInference and #MachineLearning as a #postdoc! No biomed bg needed.

See the full job description on jobRxiv: https://jobrxiv.org/job/umass-chan-medical-school-27778-postdoc-in-single-cel...
https://jobrxiv.org/job/umass-chan-medical-school-27778-postdoc-in-single-cell-and-spatial-multi-omic-gene-regulatory-networks/?fsp_sid=11057

Postdoc in Single-Cell and Spatial Multi-Omic Gene Regulatory Networks
UMass Chan Medical School

Decode #GeneRegulatoryNetwork from #SingleCell multiomics with #CausalInference and #MachineLearning as a #postdoc! No biomed bg needed.

See the full job description on jobRxiv: https://jobrxiv.org/job/umass-chan-medical-school-27778-postdoc-in-single-cel...
https://jobrxiv.org/job/umass-chan-medical-school-27778-postdoc-in-single-cell-and-spatial-multi-omic-gene-regulatory-networks/?fsp_sid=11049

Postdoc in Single-Cell and Spatial Multi-Omic Gene Regulatory Networks
UMass Chan Medical School

Decode #GeneRegulatoryNetwork from #SingleCell multiomics with #CausalInference and #MachineLearning as a #postdoc! No biomed bg needed.

See the full job description on jobRxiv: https://jobrxiv.org/job/umass-chan-medical-school-27778-postdoc-in-single-cel...
https://jobrxiv.org/job/umass-chan-medical-school-27778-postdoc-in-single-cell-and-spatial-multi-omic-gene-regulatory-networks/?fsp_sid=11049