#atlanticmeridionaloverturningcirculation — Public Fediverse posts

#ClimateChange #ClimateBreakdown #GlobalHeating #AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation #AMOC #TheDayAfterTomorrow

“It is by the deep, hidden currents that the oceans are made one”*…

A significant part of the earth’s climate infrastructure is under threat. New research suggests the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (or AMOC) could weaken by half this century with wide ranging consequences for weather, food, and sea levels across the world. Alison Smart and Charlotte Venner unpack the past and ponder the future of this critical ocean current…

London, England, and Quebec City, Canada sit at roughly the same latitude (51°N and 47°N, respectively) but have vastly different climates. Historically, Quebec City had 99 freezing days in an average year—weather you might expect from its relative proximity to the Arctic—but London only experienced three freezing days in an average year, despite being slightly further north. This difference is largely due to an ocean current called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which distributes warmth from the Tropics via the Atlantic Ocean.

Now, impacts from climate change are weakening the AMOC, and it could collapse entirely in the near future. AMOC collapse would rapidly make regions of the Northern Hemisphere with historically mild weather colder and harsher, while triggering irreversible changes in the global climate. 

The AMOC is both the product of a stable climate and a factor in maintaining weather patterns around the planet. To plan for future scenarios, we need to first understand how the AMOC works and what might happen if it collapses…

[Smart and Venner explain the AMOC and outline the ways in which it shapes the climate of regions around the world…]

… Even minor weakening of the AMOC can significantly impact local climates, as has happened several times in the past 12,000 years. A “Little Ice Age” occurred in Europe in the Middle Ages, likely connected to a disruption in the AMOC. Just a slight slowdown in the AMOC could make Europe colder overall, disrupt global precipitation patterns from South America to India, and worsen drought in Africa.

The more freshwater pours into the ocean, and the more ocean temperatures rise, the weaker the AMOC becomes—until, at some threshold, it could stop moving altogether. 

It is possible that the AMOC will collapse entirely if warming continues. There is no agreed-upon global average temperature at which collapse becomes certain, but there are signals we can track and historical examples we can examine to predict the likelihood of collapse…

… The consequences of total AMOC collapse would be far-reaching, severe, and irreversible on timescales relevant to humans. AMOC collapse would cool parts of the Northern Hemisphere and warm parts of the Southern Hemisphere by multiple degrees Celsius and drastically alter weather around the world.

In Europe, winter temperatures would drop, cold snaps could increase, and winter storms would intensify. A 2025 research letter found that, even if global warming reached 2°C, AMOC collapse would make Europe colder than it is today, creating extreme winters in Northwestern Europe in which record cold might reach -20°C (-4°F) in London and -50°C (-58°F) in Scandinavia. Even milder cold days would increase, with approximately 150 to 180 frost days per year in Utrecht, Netherlands, compared to a historic average of about 53. Precipitation would likely shift and decrease, potentially drying out some parts of Europe and making others wetter. 

Around the world, other climates would change, likely in less extreme ways.

• North America. The East Coast of North America would likely experience rapid sea level rise as the gravitational pull of the AMOC weakens, as well as cooler conditions, with some parts of Eastern Canada and the North Atlantic coast cooling by several degrees Celsius, erratic storms, weather variability, and more intense hurricanes.
• Tropics & South America. Without the AMOC, the ITCZ would shift south, potentially leading to drying in the Northern Tropics and parts of the Amazon and wetter conditions in the Southern Tropics. 
• Africa. Because of the shift in the ITCZ, West Africa and the Sahel would be much drier, experiencing severe and frequent drought and reduced rainy seasons. The Sahel could possibly transition from a semi-arid climate to hot dry desert. 
• Asia. Because of the shift in the ITCZ, weakened and more erratic monsoons in Asia would lead to increased drought and a higher risk of extreme precipitation events.

These changes may occur rapidly, create climate risks, and cause systemic disruption in affected regions. The collapse of the AMOC would also be a tipping point in the global climate, meaning that the changes would likely be difficult, if not impossible, to reverse on human timescales.

Once the AMOC passes a critical threshold of weakening, called a tipping point, it would continue to weaken until it collapses. AMOC collapse could also create systemic impacts that activate other tipping points as well as feedback loops that could generate further warming. 

For example, if AMOC collapse contributed to changes like a permanent dieback of the Amazon Rainforest or increased ice loss, those changes would generate their own warming effect on Earth’s climate. A 2026 paper suggests that AMOC collapse would result in substantial carbon release from oceans and add around 0.2°C in additional atmospheric warming.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions may slow warming enough to reduce weakening and delay collapse. If collapse begins, it is unlikely we could stop it. There is no feasible technological way to reengineer ocean currents…

A bracing, but important read: “A complete guide to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).”

See also: “What would happen if the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapses? How likely is it?” 

* Rachel Carson

###

As we put on our sailin’ shoes, we might send interconnected birthday greetings to Andrew Sharrett; he was born on this date in 1946. An archaeologist, his application of world-systems theory to questions of change on large, often global, scale made him one of the most influential archaeologists of the late 20th/early 21st centuries. Sharrett is best known for his theory of the secondary products revolution; but his work touched on a broad range of fundamental human developmental issues: global migration and colonization, the spread of agriculture, the development of metallurgy and urbanism, and the development of new forms of consumption, to name a few. All of those dynamics were, as Sharrett observed, shaped in significant ways by the climatic conditions in which they unfolded.

source

“It is by the deep, hidden currents that the oceans are made one”*…

A significant part of the earth’s climate infrastructure is under threat. New research suggests the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (or AMOC) could weaken by half this century with wide ranging consequences for weather, food, and sea levels across the world. Alison Smart and Charlotte Venner unpack the past and ponder the future of this critical ocean current…

London, England, and Quebec City, Canada sit at roughly the same latitude (51°N and 47°N, respectively) but have vastly different climates. Historically, Quebec City had 99 freezing days in an average year—weather you might expect from its relative proximity to the Arctic—but London only experienced three freezing days in an average year, despite being slightly further north. This difference is largely due to an ocean current called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which distributes warmth from the Tropics via the Atlantic Ocean.

Now, impacts from climate change are weakening the AMOC, and it could collapse entirely in the near future. AMOC collapse would rapidly make regions of the Northern Hemisphere with historically mild weather colder and harsher, while triggering irreversible changes in the global climate. 

The AMOC is both the product of a stable climate and a factor in maintaining weather patterns around the planet. To plan for future scenarios, we need to first understand how the AMOC works and what might happen if it collapses…

[Smart and Venner explain the AMOC and outline the ways in which it shapes the climate of regions around the world…]

… Even minor weakening of the AMOC can significantly impact local climates, as has happened several times in the past 12,000 years. A “Little Ice Age” occurred in Europe in the Middle Ages, likely connected to a disruption in the AMOC. Just a slight slowdown in the AMOC could make Europe colder overall, disrupt global precipitation patterns from South America to India, and worsen drought in Africa.

The more freshwater pours into the ocean, and the more ocean temperatures rise, the weaker the AMOC becomes—until, at some threshold, it could stop moving altogether. 

It is possible that the AMOC will collapse entirely if warming continues. There is no agreed-upon global average temperature at which collapse becomes certain, but there are signals we can track and historical examples we can examine to predict the likelihood of collapse…

… The consequences of total AMOC collapse would be far-reaching, severe, and irreversible on timescales relevant to humans. AMOC collapse would cool parts of the Northern Hemisphere and warm parts of the Southern Hemisphere by multiple degrees Celsius and drastically alter weather around the world.

In Europe, winter temperatures would drop, cold snaps could increase, and winter storms would intensify. A 2025 research letter found that, even if global warming reached 2°C, AMOC collapse would make Europe colder than it is today, creating extreme winters in Northwestern Europe in which record cold might reach -20°C (-4°F) in London and -50°C (-58°F) in Scandinavia. Even milder cold days would increase, with approximately 150 to 180 frost days per year in Utrecht, Netherlands, compared to a historic average of about 53. Precipitation would likely shift and decrease, potentially drying out some parts of Europe and making others wetter. 

Around the world, other climates would change, likely in less extreme ways.

• North America. The East Coast of North America would likely experience rapid sea level rise as the gravitational pull of the AMOC weakens, as well as cooler conditions, with some parts of Eastern Canada and the North Atlantic coast cooling by several degrees Celsius, erratic storms, weather variability, and more intense hurricanes.
• Tropics & South America. Without the AMOC, the ITCZ would shift south, potentially leading to drying in the Northern Tropics and parts of the Amazon and wetter conditions in the Southern Tropics. 
• Africa. Because of the shift in the ITCZ, West Africa and the Sahel would be much drier, experiencing severe and frequent drought and reduced rainy seasons. The Sahel could possibly transition from a semi-arid climate to hot dry desert. 
• Asia. Because of the shift in the ITCZ, weakened and more erratic monsoons in Asia would lead to increased drought and a higher risk of extreme precipitation events.

These changes may occur rapidly, create climate risks, and cause systemic disruption in affected regions. The collapse of the AMOC would also be a tipping point in the global climate, meaning that the changes would likely be difficult, if not impossible, to reverse on human timescales.

Once the AMOC passes a critical threshold of weakening, called a tipping point, it would continue to weaken until it collapses. AMOC collapse could also create systemic impacts that activate other tipping points as well as feedback loops that could generate further warming. 

For example, if AMOC collapse contributed to changes like a permanent dieback of the Amazon Rainforest or increased ice loss, those changes would generate their own warming effect on Earth’s climate. A 2026 paper suggests that AMOC collapse would result in substantial carbon release from oceans and add around 0.2°C in additional atmospheric warming.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions may slow warming enough to reduce weakening and delay collapse. If collapse begins, it is unlikely we could stop it. There is no feasible technological way to reengineer ocean currents…

A bracing, but important read: “A complete guide to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).”

See also: “What would happen if the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapses? How likely is it?” 

* Rachel Carson

###

As we put on our sailin’ shoes, we might send interconnected birthday greetings to Andrew Sharrett; he was born on this date in 1946. An archaeologist, his application of world-systems theory to questions of change on large, often global, scale made him one of the most influential archaeologists of the late 20th/early 21st centuries. Sharrett is best known for his theory of the secondary products revolution; but his work touched on a broad range of fundamental human developmental issues: global migration and colonization, the spread of agriculture, the development of metallurgy and urbanism, and the development of new forms of consumption, to name a few. All of those dynamics were, as Sharrett observed, shaped in significant ways by the climatic conditions in which they unfolded.

source

“It is by the deep, hidden currents that the oceans are made one”*…

A significant part of the earth’s climate infrastructure is under threat. New research suggests the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (or AMOC) could weaken by half this century with wide ranging consequences for weather, food, and sea levels across the world. Alison Smart and Charlotte Venner unpack the past and ponder the future of this critical ocean current…

London, England, and Quebec City, Canada sit at roughly the same latitude (51°N and 47°N, respectively) but have vastly different climates. Historically, Quebec City had 99 freezing days in an average year—weather you might expect from its relative proximity to the Arctic—but London only experienced three freezing days in an average year, despite being slightly further north. This difference is largely due to an ocean current called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which distributes warmth from the Tropics via the Atlantic Ocean.

Now, impacts from climate change are weakening the AMOC, and it could collapse entirely in the near future. AMOC collapse would rapidly make regions of the Northern Hemisphere with historically mild weather colder and harsher, while triggering irreversible changes in the global climate. 

The AMOC is both the product of a stable climate and a factor in maintaining weather patterns around the planet. To plan for future scenarios, we need to first understand how the AMOC works and what might happen if it collapses…

[Smart and Venner explain the AMOC and outline the ways in which it shapes the climate of regions around the world…]

… Even minor weakening of the AMOC can significantly impact local climates, as has happened several times in the past 12,000 years. A “Little Ice Age” occurred in Europe in the Middle Ages, likely connected to a disruption in the AMOC. Just a slight slowdown in the AMOC could make Europe colder overall, disrupt global precipitation patterns from South America to India, and worsen drought in Africa.

The more freshwater pours into the ocean, and the more ocean temperatures rise, the weaker the AMOC becomes—until, at some threshold, it could stop moving altogether. 

It is possible that the AMOC will collapse entirely if warming continues. There is no agreed-upon global average temperature at which collapse becomes certain, but there are signals we can track and historical examples we can examine to predict the likelihood of collapse…

… The consequences of total AMOC collapse would be far-reaching, severe, and irreversible on timescales relevant to humans. AMOC collapse would cool parts of the Northern Hemisphere and warm parts of the Southern Hemisphere by multiple degrees Celsius and drastically alter weather around the world.

In Europe, winter temperatures would drop, cold snaps could increase, and winter storms would intensify. A 2025 research letter found that, even if global warming reached 2°C, AMOC collapse would make Europe colder than it is today, creating extreme winters in Northwestern Europe in which record cold might reach -20°C (-4°F) in London and -50°C (-58°F) in Scandinavia. Even milder cold days would increase, with approximately 150 to 180 frost days per year in Utrecht, Netherlands, compared to a historic average of about 53. Precipitation would likely shift and decrease, potentially drying out some parts of Europe and making others wetter. 

Around the world, other climates would change, likely in less extreme ways.

• North America. The East Coast of North America would likely experience rapid sea level rise as the gravitational pull of the AMOC weakens, as well as cooler conditions, with some parts of Eastern Canada and the North Atlantic coast cooling by several degrees Celsius, erratic storms, weather variability, and more intense hurricanes.
• Tropics & South America. Without the AMOC, the ITCZ would shift south, potentially leading to drying in the Northern Tropics and parts of the Amazon and wetter conditions in the Southern Tropics. 
• Africa. Because of the shift in the ITCZ, West Africa and the Sahel would be much drier, experiencing severe and frequent drought and reduced rainy seasons. The Sahel could possibly transition from a semi-arid climate to hot dry desert. 
• Asia. Because of the shift in the ITCZ, weakened and more erratic monsoons in Asia would lead to increased drought and a higher risk of extreme precipitation events.

These changes may occur rapidly, create climate risks, and cause systemic disruption in affected regions. The collapse of the AMOC would also be a tipping point in the global climate, meaning that the changes would likely be difficult, if not impossible, to reverse on human timescales.

Once the AMOC passes a critical threshold of weakening, called a tipping point, it would continue to weaken until it collapses. AMOC collapse could also create systemic impacts that activate other tipping points as well as feedback loops that could generate further warming. 

For example, if AMOC collapse contributed to changes like a permanent dieback of the Amazon Rainforest or increased ice loss, those changes would generate their own warming effect on Earth’s climate. A 2026 paper suggests that AMOC collapse would result in substantial carbon release from oceans and add around 0.2°C in additional atmospheric warming.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions may slow warming enough to reduce weakening and delay collapse. If collapse begins, it is unlikely we could stop it. There is no feasible technological way to reengineer ocean currents…

A bracing, but important read: “A complete guide to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).”

See also: “What would happen if the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapses? How likely is it?” 

* Rachel Carson

###

As we put on our sailin’ shoes, we might send interconnected birthday greetings to Andrew Sharrett; he was born on this date in 1946. An archaeologist, his application of world-systems theory to questions of change on large, often global, scale made him one of the most influential archaeologists of the late 20th/early 21st centuries. Sharrett is best known for his theory of the secondary products revolution; but his work touched on a broad range of fundamental human developmental issues: global migration and colonization, the spread of agriculture, the development of metallurgy and urbanism, and the development of new forms of consumption, to name a few. All of those dynamics were, as Sharrett observed, shaped in significant ways by the climatic conditions in which they unfolded.

source

“It is by the deep, hidden currents that the oceans are made one”*…

A significant part of the earth’s climate infrastructure is under threat. New research suggests the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (or AMOC) could weaken by half this century with wide ranging consequences for weather, food, and sea levels across the world. Alison Smart and Charlotte Venner unpack the past and ponder the future of this critical ocean current…

London, England, and Quebec City, Canada sit at roughly the same latitude (51°N and 47°N, respectively) but have vastly different climates. Historically, Quebec City had 99 freezing days in an average year—weather you might expect from its relative proximity to the Arctic—but London only experienced three freezing days in an average year, despite being slightly further north. This difference is largely due to an ocean current called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which distributes warmth from the Tropics via the Atlantic Ocean.

Now, impacts from climate change are weakening the AMOC, and it could collapse entirely in the near future. AMOC collapse would rapidly make regions of the Northern Hemisphere with historically mild weather colder and harsher, while triggering irreversible changes in the global climate. 

The AMOC is both the product of a stable climate and a factor in maintaining weather patterns around the planet. To plan for future scenarios, we need to first understand how the AMOC works and what might happen if it collapses…

[Smart and Venner explain the AMOC and outline the ways in which it shapes the climate of regions around the world…]

… Even minor weakening of the AMOC can significantly impact local climates, as has happened several times in the past 12,000 years. A “Little Ice Age” occurred in Europe in the Middle Ages, likely connected to a disruption in the AMOC. Just a slight slowdown in the AMOC could make Europe colder overall, disrupt global precipitation patterns from South America to India, and worsen drought in Africa.

The more freshwater pours into the ocean, and the more ocean temperatures rise, the weaker the AMOC becomes—until, at some threshold, it could stop moving altogether. 

It is possible that the AMOC will collapse entirely if warming continues. There is no agreed-upon global average temperature at which collapse becomes certain, but there are signals we can track and historical examples we can examine to predict the likelihood of collapse…

… The consequences of total AMOC collapse would be far-reaching, severe, and irreversible on timescales relevant to humans. AMOC collapse would cool parts of the Northern Hemisphere and warm parts of the Southern Hemisphere by multiple degrees Celsius and drastically alter weather around the world.

In Europe, winter temperatures would drop, cold snaps could increase, and winter storms would intensify. A 2025 research letter found that, even if global warming reached 2°C, AMOC collapse would make Europe colder than it is today, creating extreme winters in Northwestern Europe in which record cold might reach -20°C (-4°F) in London and -50°C (-58°F) in Scandinavia. Even milder cold days would increase, with approximately 150 to 180 frost days per year in Utrecht, Netherlands, compared to a historic average of about 53. Precipitation would likely shift and decrease, potentially drying out some parts of Europe and making others wetter. 

Around the world, other climates would change, likely in less extreme ways.

• North America. The East Coast of North America would likely experience rapid sea level rise as the gravitational pull of the AMOC weakens, as well as cooler conditions, with some parts of Eastern Canada and the North Atlantic coast cooling by several degrees Celsius, erratic storms, weather variability, and more intense hurricanes.
• Tropics & South America. Without the AMOC, the ITCZ would shift south, potentially leading to drying in the Northern Tropics and parts of the Amazon and wetter conditions in the Southern Tropics. 
• Africa. Because of the shift in the ITCZ, West Africa and the Sahel would be much drier, experiencing severe and frequent drought and reduced rainy seasons. The Sahel could possibly transition from a semi-arid climate to hot dry desert. 
• Asia. Because of the shift in the ITCZ, weakened and more erratic monsoons in Asia would lead to increased drought and a higher risk of extreme precipitation events.

These changes may occur rapidly, create climate risks, and cause systemic disruption in affected regions. The collapse of the AMOC would also be a tipping point in the global climate, meaning that the changes would likely be difficult, if not impossible, to reverse on human timescales.

Once the AMOC passes a critical threshold of weakening, called a tipping point, it would continue to weaken until it collapses. AMOC collapse could also create systemic impacts that activate other tipping points as well as feedback loops that could generate further warming. 

For example, if AMOC collapse contributed to changes like a permanent dieback of the Amazon Rainforest or increased ice loss, those changes would generate their own warming effect on Earth’s climate. A 2026 paper suggests that AMOC collapse would result in substantial carbon release from oceans and add around 0.2°C in additional atmospheric warming.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions may slow warming enough to reduce weakening and delay collapse. If collapse begins, it is unlikely we could stop it. There is no feasible technological way to reengineer ocean currents…

A bracing, but important read: “A complete guide to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).”

See also: “What would happen if the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapses? How likely is it?” 

* Rachel Carson

###

As we put on our sailin’ shoes, we might send interconnected birthday greetings to Andrew Sharrett; he was born on this date in 1946. An archaeologist, his application of world-systems theory to questions of change on large, often global, scale made him one of the most influential archaeologists of the late 20th/early 21st centuries. Sharrett is best known for his theory of the secondary products revolution; but his work touched on a broad range of fundamental human developmental issues: global migration and colonization, the spread of agriculture, the development of metallurgy and urbanism, and the development of new forms of consumption, to name a few. All of those dynamics were, as Sharrett observed, shaped in significant ways by the climatic conditions in which they unfolded.

source

“It is by the deep, hidden currents that the oceans are made one”*…

A significant part of the earth’s climate infrastructure is under threat. New research suggests the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (or AMOC) could weaken by half this century with wide ranging consequences for weather, food, and sea levels across the world. Alison Smart and Charlotte Venner unpack the past and ponder the future of this critical ocean current…

London, England, and Quebec City, Canada sit at roughly the same latitude (51°N and 47°N, respectively) but have vastly different climates. Historically, Quebec City had 99 freezing days in an average year—weather you might expect from its relative proximity to the Arctic—but London only experienced three freezing days in an average year, despite being slightly further north. This difference is largely due to an ocean current called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which distributes warmth from the Tropics via the Atlantic Ocean.

Now, impacts from climate change are weakening the AMOC, and it could collapse entirely in the near future. AMOC collapse would rapidly make regions of the Northern Hemisphere with historically mild weather colder and harsher, while triggering irreversible changes in the global climate. 

The AMOC is both the product of a stable climate and a factor in maintaining weather patterns around the planet. To plan for future scenarios, we need to first understand how the AMOC works and what might happen if it collapses…

[Smart and Venner explain the AMOC and outline the ways in which it shapes the climate of regions around the world…]

… Even minor weakening of the AMOC can significantly impact local climates, as has happened several times in the past 12,000 years. A “Little Ice Age” occurred in Europe in the Middle Ages, likely connected to a disruption in the AMOC. Just a slight slowdown in the AMOC could make Europe colder overall, disrupt global precipitation patterns from South America to India, and worsen drought in Africa.

The more freshwater pours into the ocean, and the more ocean temperatures rise, the weaker the AMOC becomes—until, at some threshold, it could stop moving altogether. 

It is possible that the AMOC will collapse entirely if warming continues. There is no agreed-upon global average temperature at which collapse becomes certain, but there are signals we can track and historical examples we can examine to predict the likelihood of collapse…

… The consequences of total AMOC collapse would be far-reaching, severe, and irreversible on timescales relevant to humans. AMOC collapse would cool parts of the Northern Hemisphere and warm parts of the Southern Hemisphere by multiple degrees Celsius and drastically alter weather around the world.

In Europe, winter temperatures would drop, cold snaps could increase, and winter storms would intensify. A 2025 research letter found that, even if global warming reached 2°C, AMOC collapse would make Europe colder than it is today, creating extreme winters in Northwestern Europe in which record cold might reach -20°C (-4°F) in London and -50°C (-58°F) in Scandinavia. Even milder cold days would increase, with approximately 150 to 180 frost days per year in Utrecht, Netherlands, compared to a historic average of about 53. Precipitation would likely shift and decrease, potentially drying out some parts of Europe and making others wetter. 

Around the world, other climates would change, likely in less extreme ways.

• North America. The East Coast of North America would likely experience rapid sea level rise as the gravitational pull of the AMOC weakens, as well as cooler conditions, with some parts of Eastern Canada and the North Atlantic coast cooling by several degrees Celsius, erratic storms, weather variability, and more intense hurricanes.
• Tropics & South America. Without the AMOC, the ITCZ would shift south, potentially leading to drying in the Northern Tropics and parts of the Amazon and wetter conditions in the Southern Tropics. 
• Africa. Because of the shift in the ITCZ, West Africa and the Sahel would be much drier, experiencing severe and frequent drought and reduced rainy seasons. The Sahel could possibly transition from a semi-arid climate to hot dry desert. 
• Asia. Because of the shift in the ITCZ, weakened and more erratic monsoons in Asia would lead to increased drought and a higher risk of extreme precipitation events.

These changes may occur rapidly, create climate risks, and cause systemic disruption in affected regions. The collapse of the AMOC would also be a tipping point in the global climate, meaning that the changes would likely be difficult, if not impossible, to reverse on human timescales.

Once the AMOC passes a critical threshold of weakening, called a tipping point, it would continue to weaken until it collapses. AMOC collapse could also create systemic impacts that activate other tipping points as well as feedback loops that could generate further warming. 

For example, if AMOC collapse contributed to changes like a permanent dieback of the Amazon Rainforest or increased ice loss, those changes would generate their own warming effect on Earth’s climate. A 2026 paper suggests that AMOC collapse would result in substantial carbon release from oceans and add around 0.2°C in additional atmospheric warming.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions may slow warming enough to reduce weakening and delay collapse. If collapse begins, it is unlikely we could stop it. There is no feasible technological way to reengineer ocean currents…

A bracing, but important read: “A complete guide to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).”

See also: “What would happen if the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapses? How likely is it?” 

* Rachel Carson

###

As we put on our sailin’ shoes, we might send interconnected birthday greetings to Andrew Sharrett; he was born on this date in 1946. An archaeologist, his application of world-systems theory to questions of change on large, often global, scale made him one of the most influential archaeologists of the late 20th/early 21st centuries. Sharrett is best known for his theory of the secondary products revolution; but his work touched on a broad range of fundamental human developmental issues: global migration and colonization, the spread of agriculture, the development of metallurgy and urbanism, and the development of new forms of consumption, to name a few. All of those dynamics were, as Sharrett observed, shaped in significant ways by the climatic conditions in which they unfolded.

source

@littlealex In her insightful science communication, Sophie Berdugo (2026) summarizes a study by V. Portmann et al. (2026) that highlights influences significant for future global #climatedevelopment. According to this new forecast, the #AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation (#AMOC), which regulates our global #climatezones, will slow down by up to 59% by 2100.
Stefan F. Wirth

Reference
article about AMOC (2014)
https://www.rmets.org/metmatters/atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation

V. Portmann et al. (2026)
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adx4298

RE: https://mastodon.nl/@Blogfeedser/116426759073016504

🌎 AMOC likely to weaken 51% (±8%) by 2100 – far more than model ensemble mean (32±37%) according to new science paper. Observational constraints + ridge regression correct South Atlantic salinity bias, bringing tipping point closer.

🔗 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adx4298

#AMOC #ClimateTippingPoints #Oceanography #ClimateScience #AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation #ClimateProjections

#AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation #AMOC #TheDayAfterTomorrow

Iceland saw record temperatures last year. So why are scientists predicting a ‘deep freeze’?

Scientists have expressed growing concern over a major Atlantic current that could collapse and send northern Europe into the next Ice Age.

https://mediafaro.org/article/20260218-iceland-saw-record-temperatures-last-year-so-why-are-scientists-predicting-a-deep-freeze?mf_channel=mastodon&action=forward

#IceAge #AtlanticOcean #Iceland #Greenland #Icebergs #GlobalWarming #AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation #AMOC #Science

Scientists warn! Gulf Stream collapse could trigger severe global disruption |

Scientists warn! Gulf Stream collapse could trigger severe global disruption Scientists are again examining the strength of the…
#NewsBeep #News #Environment #Atlantic #AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation #AU #Australia #Climatechange #foodproductionimpact #globalwarmingeffects #gulfstream #GulfStreamcollapse #Science #Sealevelrise #weatherpatternchanges
https://www.newsbeep.com/au/485595/

Scientists warn! Gulf Stream collapse could trigger severe global disruption |

Scientists warn! Gulf Stream collapse could trigger severe global disruption Scientists are again examining the strength of the…
#NewsBeep #News #Environment #Atlantic #AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation #CA #Canada #climatechange #foodproductionimpact #globalwarmingeffects #gulfstream #GulfStreamcollapse #Science #Sealevelrise #weatherpatternchanges
https://www.newsbeep.com/ca/480428/

Channel 4 News - "Collapse of this Atlantic current could change Europe's climate forever." - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpOpsMOBsL4
#uk #AMOC #AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation

#Iceland deems possible #Atlantic current collapse a security risk
#AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation, or #AMOC, current brings warm water from the tropics northward toward the Arctic, and the flow of warm water helps keep #Europe's winters mild. But as warming temperatures speed the thaw of Arctic ice and cause meltwater from Greenland's ice sheet to pour into the ocean, scientists warn the cold freshwater could disrupt the current's flow.
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/iceland-sees-security-risk-existential-threat-atlantic-ocean-currents-possible-2025-11-12/ #climatechange

First climate ‘tipping point’ crossed, scientists warn ahead of Cop30 in Brazil https://www.byteseu.com/1445867/ #AmazonRainforest #AMOC #AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation #Brazil #Climate #ClimateChange #cop30 #CoralReefs #CSIROClimateScienceCentre #Ember #eu #GlobalTippingPointsReport #GlobalWarming #PepCanadell #TimLenton #un #UniversityOfExeter

The #AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation

What's that?

It's what allows people to farm in Northern #Europe

It brings warmth via ocean currents

You look at a map and #London is the same latitude as parts of Hudson Bay in Canada and Kamchatka in Russia

The #AMOC means London isn't frozen over (also why it's cloudy and rainy)

Well maybe London will get some sun in a frigid future

Because failure to address #ClimateCrisis #ClimateChange could shut down the AMOC

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/28/collapse-critical-atlantic-current-amoc-no-longer-low-likelihood-study

"This video is for the IRISH! And the NORWEGIANS!" -- @hankgreen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pThcIgJyNME

#YouTube #HankGreen #ClimateScience #ClimateChange #AMOC #AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation #Environment #Ireland #Norway #Allheimen

17-Jul-2025
Tracking #AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation using benthic #foraminifera
New study: More #oxygen in the oxygen-minimum zone associated with weaker #Atlantic overturning circulation

https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1091560

#science #ocean #current #climateCatastrophe

It's not looking good for ocean circulation in the North Atlantic.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/23/we-dont-know-where-the-tipping-point-is-climate-expert-on-potential-collapse-of-atlantic-circulation

#AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation #AMOC #GulfStreamCollapse #ClimateChange #Oceanography #TippingPoints

7/

Presentation (~34 min) by @rahmstorf on #ClimateChange and the changing #AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation (#AMOC) [3]

(archived version:
https://web.archive.org/web/20240609131436oe_/https://rr2---sn-o097znze.googlevideo.com/videoplayback?expire=1717960420&ei=hKplZpOlLpjpsfIPzb6C-A4&ip=185.211.32.223&id=o-AEgBQJiDB9vxpw_xzVsT3vtAyfOz8ehnm9zSMAHkJkW4&itag=22&source=youtube&requiressl=yes&xpc=EgVo2aDSNQ%3D%3D&bui=AbKP-1Pvuwmy7q_nLtFbJQyvJrT5UZy17XA4Zns6XGMiQZnqUn3T4K_ZWjLfb_D_Zb5MHcjxWQwyYGQE&spc=UWF9f5oipEP70CZRBB_JwR0s5-Xn3knCim0pPaBWG3GhOqFkGMxq7g3veyLb&vprv=1&svpuc=1&mime=video%2Fmp4&ns=yi-fnGdTO4mfZI-IbExbRQ8Q&rqh=1&cnr=14&ratebypass=yes&dur=2094.509&lmt=1717763238771231&c=WEB&sefc=1&txp=6318224&n=8Cbapj7jUpTJ7Q&sparams=expire%2Cei%2Cip%2Cid%2Citag%2Csource%2Crequiressl%2Cxpc%2Cbui%2Cspc%2Cvprv%2Csvpuc%2Cmime%2Cns%2Crqh%2Ccnr%2Cratebypass%2Cdur%2Clmt&sig=AJfQdSswRgIhAO8M4g8Q38xYZhy1C3mhzeC6E7VQdjqumQITygvltqJFAiEAzip08kSsceJgKal7o-rptBznwWD2RkbCNxwbAl8KBNg%3D&video_id=ZHNNW8c_FaA&redirect_counter=1&rm=sn-a5meee7l&fexp=24350485&req_id=d19d5cfcdb46a3ee&cms_redirect=yes&cmsv=e&ipbypass=yes&mh=Ha&mip=207.241.236.85&mm=31&mn=sn-o097znze&ms=au&mt=1717938525&mv=m&mvi=2&pl=20&lsparams=ipbypass,mh,mip,mm,mn,ms,mv,mvi,pl&lsig=AHlkHjAwQwIgGRbw1aJPD-yQceJkU9l-y7NNwY4mgQ5avd98ZIYcOwQCH1P_gGhiKPYfPg5Bo4xwt1GMsy7SI-5RRZY3Zgk9BUk%3D )

concludes corroborating some key points (min. 33):

"The #AMOC is weakening

The AMOC has a #TippingPoint"

while noting on this tipping point how "it is still uncertain how close it is" and how recent studies suggest that the "risk is larger than we thought"

This recommends that a "precautionary principle should apply"

19-APR-2024
Warming of Antarctic deep-sea waters contribute to sea level rise in North Atlantic, study finds

Analysis of mooring observations and hydrographic data suggest the #AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation deep water limb in the #NorthAtlantic has weakened. Two decades of continual observations provide a greater understanding of the #Earth’s #climate regulating system.

https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1041643 #science #ClimateCatastrophe #AMOC

This one's been on my radar screen for 30+ years. Nice to see it getting a little attention. Consequences unknown but most likely to be BIG trouble. (Gifted)
https://wapo.st/48ozyWR

#TippingPoints #OceanCirculation #Greenland #MeltingIce #Thermohaline #AtlanticOcean #WaterDensity #Climate #ClimateCollapse #AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation #AMOC

Is the Gulf Stream slowing? UM scientists aim to find out :

"Beal rejected the notion of collapse because the current is wind-powered. But she said it can be affected by man-made climate change."

#AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation #current #GulfStream #LisaBeal #Ocean #RosenstielSchool #sealevelrise #UniversityofMiami
#Miami #news

https://kbindependent.org/2023/08/24/is-the-gulf-stream-slowing-um-scientists-aim-to-find-out/

Scientists Detect Sign That A Crucial Ocean Current [AMOC] Is Near Collapse
--
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/07/25/atlantic-ocean-amoc-climate-change/ <-- shared media article
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #AMOC #AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation #atlantic #current #nutrients #hydrospatial #global #climatechange #impacts #humanimpact #marine #ocean #hydrology #water #climate #climatesystem #collapse #aquaticconveyorbelt #risk #hazard #temperature #nutrients #climatecrisis #climatechangeimpacts #amoc #model #modeling #spatialanalysis #prediction #spatiotemporal #bathtub #stagnant

5/

#References

[1] Ditlevsen, P., Ditlevsen, S., 2023. Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Nature Communications 14 (1), 4254+. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w

[2] Boers, N., 2021. Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Nature Climate Change 11 (8) 680–688. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4

Available free access versions: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=7892841451249027685

#DOI #AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation

1/

#TippingPoint #research: potential "forthcoming collapse of the #AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation (#AMOC)" [1]

"major concern as it is one of the most important tipping elements in #Earth’s #climate system

[...] model studies and #paleoclimatic reconstructions indicate that the strongest abrupt climate fluctuations [...] are connected to the bimodal nature of the AMOC" [1]

Comments:

https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/07/what-is-happening-in-the-atlantic-ocean-to-the-amoc/ (@rahmstorf)

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/25/gulf-stream-could-collapse-as-early-as-2025-study-suggests

On wording: https://fediscience.org/@rahmstorf/110780032077113038

#GulfStream could collapse as early as 2025, study suggests | #Climate crisis | #TheGuardian

"The Gulf Stream system could collapse as soon as 2025, a new study suggests. The shutting down of the vital ocean currents, called the #AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation (Amoc) by scientists, would bring catastrophic climate impacts."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/25/gulf-stream-could-collapse-as-early-as-2025-study-suggests