#nber — Public Fediverse posts

Does Employment Slow Cognitive Decline? Evidence from Labor Market Shocks

https://www.nber.org/papers/w35117

#HackerNews #Employment #CognitiveDecline #LaborMarket #Shocks #Research #NBER

From an #NBER research paper:
Workers today are about half as likely to receive a better-paying outside job offer as they were in the 1980s — and fully ONE-THIRD of this decline is attributable to “employer concentration and the growing use of noncompetes.”

https://www.nber.org/papers/w34981

Pluralistic: What's a "gig work minimum wage" (17 Feb 2026)

https://web.brid.gy/r/https://pluralistic.net/2026/02/17/no-piecework/

🤖📈 Breaking news: #NBER discovers the magical world of O-Ring Automation, where economic jargon meets its match. Dive into a sea of bulletins, reports, and data archives—because who needs clarity or excitement when you have endless PDFs? 🙄💼
https://www.nber.org/papers/w34639 #O-RingAutomation #EconomicJargon #DataArchives #PDFOverload #AutomationInsights #HackerNews #ngated

O-Ring Automation

https://www.nber.org/papers/w34639

#HackerNews #O-Ring #Automation #NBER #Automation #Technology #Innovation

🔍 Ah yes, an article on US inequality from the National Bureau of Economic Research, where they explore inequality by drowning you in endless papers, bulletins, and data archives. 📚 Because nothing screams understanding complex social issues like a good ol' subscription to bureaucratic jargon! 😂
https://www.nber.org/papers/w34558 #USinequality #NBER #economicresearch #dataanalysis #socialissues #bureaucraticjargon #HackerNews #ngated

Hey folks! I am trying to locate an #NBER paper on the productivity of Silicon Valley workers (e.g., how much each SV worker contributes to their employer's bottom line). I know it exists, I just can't locate it. Any help very appreciated.

From tariffs to visa curbs, Trump’s US has been closing its doors to goods and people, all in the name of 'making America great again'. But a new NBER paper by @econgaurav shows that US growth has long been powered by Asian immigrants. Today's Number Theory explores this.

Read on HT app: https://www.hindustantimes.com/editors-pick/the-a-that-made-america-great-again-number-theory-101762916249914.html

#US #USeconomy #MigrantWorkers #Economy #H1B #STEM #MAGA #Trump #AsianMigrants #IndianMigrants #STEM #DataViz #NBER

Artificial Writing and Automated Detection [pdf]

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w34223/w34223.pdf

#HackerNews #ArtificialWriting #AutomatedDetection #AIResearch #NBER #PDF

Job Mismatch and Early Career Success

https://www.nber.org/papers/w34215

#HackerNews #JobMismatch #EarlyCareerSuccess #CareerDevelopment #LaborMarket #NBER

Ah yes, the think-tank geniuses at #NBER have finally cracked the enigma of low #fertility in wealthy nations: 🤔Could it be... money? Babies? Or maybe Netflix is just too good these days? 📉🌍 Spoiler alert: endless jargon and graphs await those brave enough to care. 📊😂
https://www.nber.org/papers/w33989 #WealthyNations #LowFertility #EconomicTrends #SocialCommentary #HackerNews #ngated

Ah yes, the think-tank geniuses at #NBER have finally cracked the enigma of low #fertility in wealthy nations: 🤔Could it be... money? Babies? Or maybe Netflix is just too good these days? 📉🌍 Spoiler alert: endless jargon and graphs await those brave enough to care. 📊😂
https://www.nber.org/papers/w33989 #WealthyNations #LowFertility #EconomicTrends #SocialCommentary #HackerNews #ngated

Ah yes, the think-tank geniuses at #NBER have finally cracked the enigma of low #fertility in wealthy nations: 🤔Could it be... money? Babies? Or maybe Netflix is just too good these days? 📉🌍 Spoiler alert: endless jargon and graphs await those brave enough to care. 📊😂
https://www.nber.org/papers/w33989 #WealthyNations #LowFertility #EconomicTrends #SocialCommentary #HackerNews #ngated

Ah yes, the think-tank geniuses at #NBER have finally cracked the enigma of low #fertility in wealthy nations: 🤔Could it be... money? Babies? Or maybe Netflix is just too good these days? 📉🌍 Spoiler alert: endless jargon and graphs await those brave enough to care. 📊😂
https://www.nber.org/papers/w33989 #WealthyNations #LowFertility #EconomicTrends #SocialCommentary #HackerNews #ngated

Why Is Fertility So Low in High Income Countries? (NBER)

https://www.nber.org/papers/w33989

#HackerNews #FertilityTrends #LowFertility #HighIncomeCountries #NBER #ResearchInsights #PopulationDynamics

🎉 Breaking news: house prices don't care about pesky "constraints"! 🏠💸 Apparently, they rise and fall because of ✨magic✨. Next up, the #NBER will reveal that gravity doesn't explain why things fall. 🙃
https://www.nber.org/papers/w33576 #houseprices #magicconstraints #news #humor #HackerNews #ngated

"The Impact of a Boston Desegregation Busing Program on Student Outcomes"

"The Metropolitan Council for Educational Opportunity (METCO) program in Boston is a voluntary program for urban students and suburban school districts, that busses non-White students from Boston to wealthier, Whiter suburbs.

"Elizabeth Setren examines how participation in the METCO program affected students over the period 1991 through 2020.

"METCO students attend schools where a much higher percentage of the students plan to go to a four-year college than in the Boston public school system..

"Boston students who are bused to suburban school districts through the METCO school desegregation program have stronger academic and labor market outcomes than similar students who apply to be bussed but are not selected..

"At age 35, on average, students who were selected to participate in the METCO program make $16,250 more than those who applied to the program but were not selected from the waitlist."
https://www.nber.org/digest/202501/impact-boston-desegregation-busing-program-student-outcomes
—
#desegregation #education #PublicSchool #PublicEducation #race #BrownvBoard #economics #NBER #Boston #Massachusetts #METCO

"Term Spreads Using Very Long-Run Data" by Rogoff, Rossi, and Schmeltzing

#NBER #interestrate #bonds #econometrics #finance #investing #history

3) create a captive pool of cheap labor for their other corporate donors
—
#GOP #WorkRequirements #inequality #poverty #welfare #NBER

First was the fantastic industrial organizational program meeting at NBER. There were tons of great talks, with standouts from Audrey Tiew (joint operating agreement effects on the US newspaper industry), Mert Demirer (M&A and power plant efficiency), Martino Banchio (AI and spontaneous collusion), and Jihye Jeon (investment and usage of the subsea internet cable network). Highly recommend
Day 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=354UGvb-Pl4
Day 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-IycsWOZ_o (2/8) #economics #NBER

Does Less Consumer #Tracking Lead to Less Fraud?

Here’s another reason to block digital #surveillance: it might reduce financial fraud. That’s the upshot of a small but promising study published as a National Bureau of Economic Research ( #NBER ) working paper, “Consumer Surveillance and #FinancialFraud.
#privacy

https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2023/12/does-less-consumer-tracking-lead-less-fraud

Next was a fantastic talk by Elena Ashtari Tafti on the relationship between surgeon skill, surgical robot adoption, and performance at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Interestingly it appears that surgical robots tend to improve performance for the least skilled surgeons but have negligible effects for the most skilled ones, but lower-skilled surgeons tend to have the lowest adoption. Highly recommend https://www.youtube.com/live/zaafJTC9dfA?si=Yx5Y5ZI5r0qIWxVS&t=20797 (3/13) #economics #robotics #NBER

Next was a fantastic symposium on top executive compensation at #NBER. I particularly liked the talks by Steve Irlbeck (competition and compensation with pharma breakthroughs), Minjia Li (climate-linked pay and supply chain management), and Pierre Chaigneau (a theory of fair CEO pay). There's a ton of great work here, highly recommend the whole event https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1QzpW_4AEQ&t=1s (5/6) #PeopleAnalytics #management #economics

Last was an excellent second day of the NBER economics of education meeting, with fantastic talks by Basit Zafar (costs of balancing college and work activities for gig workers), @MatthewAKraft (preferences, inequities, and incentives in the substitute teacher labor market), and Andrea Kiss and Robert Garlick (jobseekers' beliefs about comparative advantage and misdirected search). Highly recommend https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75YWsCRQO5M (6/6) #NBER #economics

Next was an interesting talk by Anna Vitali on consumer search and firm location effects at NBER https://www.youtube.com/live/mRbwTYrF80c?si=vQeiGbcqD9NuyUv5&t=597 (4/6) #NBER #economics

First was a nice NBER symposium on development economics. I particularly liked the work by Josh Lerner on how the rise of Chinese venture capital impacted venture investment in other developing markets in areas where Chinese startups were also successful https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsUC3bvrNiQ&t=2s (2/6) #NBER #economics #China #startups

Last was a great talk by Peter Schott on trade liberalization and labor market gains at NBER. This work looks at the China shock in the US, showing wage declines for manufacturing workers that go into low-skill services work but can lead to wage gains for workers who are in industries whose suppliers were more exposed to trade liberalization https://www.youtube.com/live/lX9eVlpgbvQ?si=-1l2qPYESJkgR-wR&t=231 (7/7) #economics #NBER #US

First was the NBER big data and securities markets meeting. I particularly liked the talk by Alan Kwan that measured managerial learning by analyzing internet traffic associated with different investment firms (!) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRyIq1W1c2c&t=4s (2/7) #economics #NBER #finance

Next was a fabulous last day of the #NBER Organizational Economics symposium. I highly recommend the whole day, and the stand outs for me were talks by Cristóbal Otero (managers and public hospital performance) and Emily Nix (benefits, costs, and spillovers from dating and breaking up with the boss) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2p1USNXS3M (7/8) #economics #management #PeopleAnalytics #work

Next was an excellent pair of talks at the first day of the #NBER Organizational Economics meeting with David Deming (the importance of allocative skill for worker pay) and Nina Roussille (pay secrecy as a collective bargaining tactic with real fieldwork evidence from the recent Hollywood strikes!). Highly recommend both https://www.youtube.com/live/e8XkrmF1u60?si=5IoHy4LnUytoUPt3&t=16700 (11/11) #economics #work #unions

"New study shows 18% productivity decline by those working from home"

Color me skeptical. My reasons:

1. This "study" is a "working paper" and not peer-reviewed.

2. They claim to have accounted for accuracy in the paper, but doing this is notoriously hard. They could easily have made mistakes when they looked at accuracy.

(By "accuracy" I mean the accuracy of the data entry. You've gained nothing if you're going faster in the office, but also make more mistakes.)

3. Correlation is not causation.

4. Correlation is not causation.

5. Correlation is not causation.

If I had a dime for every crackpot who confuses correlation and causation, I'd be a rich man.

Illustration: some study shows that there is a correlation between taking a 30-minute walk per day, and better health. Someone latches onto this and says that everyone should walk 30 minutes per day to improve their health. They did not account for the fact that people who are healthy in the first place are those capable to take a walk every day. Nor do they account for the fact that those people who can afford the walk probably have money. When you have to work two jobs, the walk goes out the window. So it is not the daily walks that make people healthy, it is being healthy and having money that makes people able to take the walks.

I'm not at all convinced that there NOT is something else at play in this "study" and that correlation and causation have been confused.

I don't have proof of this, only an inkling. I've gone very quickly over the study.

#WorkFromHome #CorrelationIsNotCausation #WorkingPaper #PeerReview #NBER

https://www.techspot.com/news/99738-new-study-shows-18-decrease-productivity-working-home.html

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31515/w31515.pdf

#NewPaper #NBER

When do "Nudges" Increase Welfare?

by Hunt Allcott, Daniel Cohen, William Morrison & Dmitry Taubinsky

They characterize the #welfare effects of #nudges using public finance sufficient statistic approaches.

My understanding of their results: nudges increase beneficial behaviors but also may decrease welfare, because they increase the variance of distortions.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w30740

Carleton et al. (2020): Valuing the Global #Mortality Consequences of #ClimateChange Accounting for #Adaptation Costs and Benefits, #NBER Working Paper 27599

The new study estimates
that the mean increase in #mortalityrisk due to climate change "is valued at roughly 3.2% of global GDP in 2100"

Mortality rates increase in extreme cold and hot #temperatures, especially for the elderly, flattened by both higher incomes and #ClimateChangeAdaptation.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/08/03/1005965/climate-change-fueled-heatwaves-could-kill-millions
http://impactlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/CIL_NBER_MortalityPaper_3Aug2020.pdf