#predictionmarkets — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #predictionmarkets, aggregated by home.social.
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https://www.europesays.com/iran/115971/ Aftermath: Trump Is Wrecking the U.S. Military #Aftermath #AmericaAndTheWorld #DefenseDepartment #DonaldTrump #Iran #Military #NationalSecurity #PeteHegseth #PredictionMarkets #WorldWarIi
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The US Is Using AI to Hunt Down Insider Trading on Polymarket
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Winners Inc. showcases Mevu.com at Consensus Miami 2026, bridging traditional sports betting with decentralized prediction markets. AI-powered platform connects institutional partners in Web3 analytics. #AI #PredictionMarkets
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https://www.europesays.com/people/70552/ Warren Buffett flags three dangerous trends for investors in 2026: ‘That’s not investing’ #GamblingMood #InsiderTrading #OneDayOptionsTrading #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #WarrenBuffett
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🎲 Most Polymarket Users Lose Money, While Top 1% Claim 76.5% of Gains, Study Finds - Slashdot
｢ just 1,200 people took more than half the profits — $591 million, or more than $100,000 each. ["The top 1% of users capture 76.5% of all trading gains," the researchers write.] When you dabble in prediction markets, you're competing against these sophisticated players who consistently win ｣
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🎲 Most Polymarket Users Lose Money, While Top 1% Claim 76.5% of Gains, Study Finds - Slashdot
｢ just 1,200 people took more than half the profits — $591 million, or more than $100,000 each. ["The top 1% of users capture 76.5% of all trading gains," the researchers write.] When you dabble in prediction markets, you're competing against these sophisticated players who consistently win ｣
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🎲 Most Polymarket Users Lose Money, While Top 1% Claim 76.5% of Gains, Study Finds - Slashdot
｢ just 1,200 people took more than half the profits — $591 million, or more than $100,000 each. ["The top 1% of users capture 76.5% of all trading gains," the researchers write.] When you dabble in prediction markets, you're competing against these sophisticated players who consistently win ｣
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🎲 Most Polymarket Users Lose Money, While Top 1% Claim 76.5% of Gains, Study Finds - Slashdot
｢ just 1,200 people took more than half the profits — $591 million, or more than $100,000 each. ["The top 1% of users capture 76.5% of all trading gains," the researchers write.] When you dabble in prediction markets, you're competing against these sophisticated players who consistently win ｣
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🎲 Most Polymarket Users Lose Money, While Top 1% Claim 76.5% of Gains, Study Finds - Slashdot
｢ just 1,200 people took more than half the profits — $591 million, or more than $100,000 each. ["The top 1% of users capture 76.5% of all trading gains," the researchers write.] When you dabble in prediction markets, you're competing against these sophisticated players who consistently win ｣
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Perfect Timing, Big Payouts: Insider Trading Red Flags Emerge on #Polymarket
Dozens of long-shot bets on Polymarket, from the war with Iran to the cryptocurrency market, have defied the odds, according to a New York Times examination.
13 users wagered $140,000 that Israel would strike Iran by the end of that week, even as the odds suggested that an attack was unlikely. Seven of the accounts had been opened just days earlier.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/technology/polymarket-insider-trading.html
https://archive.ph/YRTNo
#predictionmarkets -
Perfect Timing, Big Payouts: Insider Trading Red Flags Emerge on #Polymarket
Dozens of long-shot bets on Polymarket, from the war with Iran to the cryptocurrency market, have defied the odds, according to a New York Times examination.
13 users wagered $140,000 that Israel would strike Iran by the end of that week, even as the odds suggested that an attack was unlikely. Seven of the accounts had been opened just days earlier.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/technology/polymarket-insider-trading.html
https://archive.ph/YRTNo
#predictionmarkets -
Perfect Timing, Big Payouts: Insider Trading Red Flags Emerge on #Polymarket
Dozens of long-shot bets on Polymarket, from the war with Iran to the cryptocurrency market, have defied the odds, according to a New York Times examination.
13 users wagered $140,000 that Israel would strike Iran by the end of that week, even as the odds suggested that an attack was unlikely. Seven of the accounts had been opened just days earlier.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/technology/polymarket-insider-trading.html
https://archive.ph/YRTNo
#predictionmarkets -
Perfect Timing, Big Payouts: Insider Trading Red Flags Emerge on #Polymarket
Dozens of long-shot bets on Polymarket, from the war with Iran to the cryptocurrency market, have defied the odds, according to a New York Times examination.
13 users wagered $140,000 that Israel would strike Iran by the end of that week, even as the odds suggested that an attack was unlikely. Seven of the accounts had been opened just days earlier.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/technology/polymarket-insider-trading.html
https://archive.ph/YRTNo
#predictionmarkets -
Perfect Timing, Big Payouts: Insider Trading Red Flags Emerge on #Polymarket
Dozens of long-shot bets on Polymarket, from the war with Iran to the cryptocurrency market, have defied the odds, according to a New York Times examination.
13 users wagered $140,000 that Israel would strike Iran by the end of that week, even as the odds suggested that an attack was unlikely. Seven of the accounts had been opened just days earlier.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/technology/polymarket-insider-trading.html
https://archive.ph/YRTNo
#predictionmarkets -
Colorado Democrat Jason Crow calls on House leadership to ban trading on prediction markets
U.S. Rep. Jason Crow on Monday joined a bipartisan call asking House Speaker Mike Johnson to adopt new…
#UnitedStates #US #USA #2026elections #america #geopolitics #jasoncrow #mikejohnson #Politics #predictionmarkets #TopStory #U.S.HouseofRepresentatives #unitedstatesofamerica #UnitedStatesPolitics #USPolitics #usapolitics
https://www.europesays.com/2986685/ -
New York ‘Risky Bet’ campaign steers gamblers away from unlicensed sites
The New York State Gaming Commission (NYSGC) has launched a new platform directing residents to guidance on how…
#NewsBeep #News #Mentalhealth #CA #Canada #Health #illegalgambling #MentalHealth #NewYork #NewYorkStateGamingCommission #predictionmarkets
https://www.newsbeep.com/ca/666082/ -
US prediction market participants on Kalshi and Polymarket are betting inflation could reach 5% this year following elevated April CPI data, with odds significantly exceeding Wall Street forecasts as Middle East tensions threaten prolonged supply chain disruptions and sustained price pressures.
#YonhapInfomax #InflationForecast #PredictionMarkets #ConsumerPriceIndex #FederalReserve #MiddleEastConflict #Economics #FinancialMarkets #Banking #Securities #Bonds #StockMarket
https://en.infomaxai.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=120220 -
US prediction market participants on Kalshi and Polymarket are betting inflation could reach 5% this year following elevated April CPI data, with odds significantly exceeding Wall Street forecasts as Middle East tensions threaten prolonged supply chain disruptions and sustained price pressures.
#YonhapInfomax #InflationForecast #PredictionMarkets #ConsumerPriceIndex #FederalReserve #MiddleEastConflict #Economics #FinancialMarkets #Banking #Securities #Bonds #StockMarket
https://en.infomaxai.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=120220 -
US prediction market participants on Kalshi and Polymarket are betting inflation could reach 5% this year following elevated April CPI data, with odds significantly exceeding Wall Street forecasts as Middle East tensions threaten prolonged supply chain disruptions and sustained price pressures.
#YonhapInfomax #InflationForecast #PredictionMarkets #ConsumerPriceIndex #FederalReserve #MiddleEastConflict #Economics #FinancialMarkets #Banking #Securities #Bonds #StockMarket
https://en.infomaxai.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=120220 -
US prediction market participants on Kalshi and Polymarket are betting inflation could reach 5% this year following elevated April CPI data, with odds significantly exceeding Wall Street forecasts as Middle East tensions threaten prolonged supply chain disruptions and sustained price pressures.
#YonhapInfomax #InflationForecast #PredictionMarkets #ConsumerPriceIndex #FederalReserve #MiddleEastConflict #Economics #FinancialMarkets #Banking #Securities #Bonds #StockMarket
https://en.infomaxai.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=120220 -
Trump Media Scales Back Plans for Its Own Prediction Market
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Trump Media Scales Back Plans for Its Own Prediction Market
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Trump Media Scales Back Plans for Its Own Prediction Market
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Trump Media Scales Back Plans for Its Own Prediction Market
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New York ‘Risky Bet’ campaign steers gamblers away from unlicensed sites
The New York State Gaming Commission (NYSGC) has launched a new platform directing residents to guidance on how…
#NewsBeep #News #US #USA #UnitedStates #UnitedStatesOfAmerica #Mentalhealth #Health #illegalgambling #MentalHealth #NewYork #NewYorkStateGamingCommission #predictionmarkets
https://www.newsbeep.com/us/638456/ -
New York ‘Risky Bet’ campaign steers gamblers away from unlicensed sites
The New York State Gaming Commission (NYSGC) has launched a new platform directing residents to guidance on how…
#NewsBeep #News #US #USA #UnitedStates #UnitedStatesOfAmerica #Mentalhealth #Health #illegalgambling #MentalHealth #NewYork #NewYorkStateGamingCommission #predictionmarkets
https://www.newsbeep.com/us/638456/ -
https://www.europesays.com/people/67327/ Members of Congress using online prediction markets? Don’t bet on it #BernieMoreno #BrianBaird #ChuckSchumer #Congress #MarkMoran #MembersOfCongress #PredictionMarkets #PresidentTrump #SenateMinorityLeader #UnitedStatesSenate
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https://www.europesays.com/ie/480095/ New York ‘Risky Bet’ campaign steers gamblers away from unlicensed sites #Éire #Health #IE #IllegalGambling #Ireland #MentalHealth #MentalHealth #NewYork #NewYorkStateGamingCommission #PredictionMarkets
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Kalshi Announces Multi-Year Deal with Madison Square Garden https://www.allforgardening.com/1763376/kalshi-announces-multi-year-deal-with-madison-square-garden/ #garden #Kalshi #MadisonSquareGarden #MSG #PredictionMarkets
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Kalshi Announces Multi-Year Deal with Madison Square Garden https://www.allforgardening.com/1763376/kalshi-announces-multi-year-deal-with-madison-square-garden/ #garden #Kalshi #MadisonSquareGarden #MSG #PredictionMarkets
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https://www.europesays.com/ee/174174/ Krüptovaluuta ennustusturud liiguvad peavoolu finantsmaailma, kuna institutsioonide huvi kasvab #Äri #Business #Chainalysis #EE #Eesti #EestiKeel #Estonia #Estonian #PredictionMarkets
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“Gambling is a tax on ignorance”*…
And as Einstein observed, “two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe.”
Gambling– and related specualtive investments– have always been, for the vast majority of punters, a sucker’s bet. But, as Paul Kedrosky explains, the growing prevalence of AI and the emergence of prediction markets have amplified that painful reality…
The return skew in prediction markets’ returns is startling. It is partly a function of their nature, but also of vibe-coding script kiddies attacking every market anomaly as quickly as it arises. Check a recent WSJ article for examples.
The same dynamic is now spreading across retail-dominated markets. A driver is how AI lowers the cost of systematic exploitation and exploration to near zero. What used to require infrastructure, data pipelines, and bearded quants is now accessible via off-the-shelf models, APIs, and loosely stitched “agent” workflows doing … stuff that even their users don’t fully understand.
The result isn’t democratization of returns. It is wider participation, of a sort, alongside the rapid re-concentration of profits. A small subset of users—those willing to iterate fastest, monitor continuously, and deploy capital programmatically—capture gains, with everyone else just liquidity.
They scrape sentiment, parse new information, and reprice positions in seconds, compressing the half-life of mispricings. That doesn’t eliminate inefficiency, but changes who harvests it. The edge shifts from insight to speed, coverage, and execution discipline—areas where even modest automation compounds quickly, and edges disappear overnight.
Prediction markets are simply the cleanest expression of this trend because they combine thin liquidity, discrete outcomes, and high retail participation. But the same pattern is visible in options flow, single-stock volatility events, and even online poker, which AI increasingly dominates.
As AI tools continue to scale, expect this to get worse: a small cohort running semi-automated strategies extracting semi-consistent edge, and a much larger base supplying them returns. Under the pressure of AI prevalance, markets don’t flatten, the return gradient steepens to a cliff…
Fewer and fewer winners take more and more of the pot. The mechanics of concentration: “AI is Eating Markets” from @paulkedrosky.com.
* Warren Buffett
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As we contemplate concentration, we might note that today is Mother’s Day. As noted yesterday, the observance became official on that date in 1914. But the quest to honor moms began a good bit earlier. On this date in 1908, Anna Jarvis held a memorial for her mother at St. Andrew’s Methodist Church in Grafton, West Virginia, the location of the International Mother’s Day Shrine. But her quest to create Mother’s Day had begun three years earlier when her mother Ann, a lifelong activist, died.
Ann had tried to start a “Mother’s Remembrance Day” in the mid-19th century. On her passing, Anna enlisted the support of retailer extraordinaire John Wanamaker, who knew a merchandising opportunity when he saw one, and who hosted the first Mother’s Day ceremonies in his Philadelphia emporium’s auditorium. In 1912, Anna trademarked the phrases “second Sunday in May” and “Mother’s Day”, and created the Mother’s Day International Association. By 1914, she and Wanamaker had built sufficient support in Congress to score the Congressional Resolution noted yesterday. (President Wilson, who was by current accounts uninterested in the move– distracted as he was by the beginnings of his ultimately unsuccessful effort to keep the U.S. out of the troubles in Europe that became World War I– nonetheless knew better than to take a stand against moms.)
Anna Jarvis (source) #AI #AnnJarvis #AnnaJarvis #artificialIntelligence #concentration #culture #gambling #history #investing #JohnWanamaker #MotherSDay #predictionMarkets #Technology #WoodrowWilson -
“Gambling is a tax on ignorance”*…
And as Einstein observed, “two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe.”
Gambling– and related specualtive investments– have always been, for the vast majority of punters, a sucker’s bet. But, as Paul Kedrosky explains, the growing prevalence of AI and the emergence of prediction markets have amplified that painful reality…
The return skew in prediction markets’ returns is startling. It is partly a function of their nature, but also of vibe-coding script kiddies attacking every market anomaly as quickly as it arises. Check a recent WSJ article for examples.
The same dynamic is now spreading across retail-dominated markets. A driver is how AI lowers the cost of systematic exploitation and exploration to near zero. What used to require infrastructure, data pipelines, and bearded quants is now accessible via off-the-shelf models, APIs, and loosely stitched “agent” workflows doing … stuff that even their users don’t fully understand.
The result isn’t democratization of returns. It is wider participation, of a sort, alongside the rapid re-concentration of profits. A small subset of users—those willing to iterate fastest, monitor continuously, and deploy capital programmatically—capture gains, with everyone else just liquidity.
They scrape sentiment, parse new information, and reprice positions in seconds, compressing the half-life of mispricings. That doesn’t eliminate inefficiency, but changes who harvests it. The edge shifts from insight to speed, coverage, and execution discipline—areas where even modest automation compounds quickly, and edges disappear overnight.
Prediction markets are simply the cleanest expression of this trend because they combine thin liquidity, discrete outcomes, and high retail participation. But the same pattern is visible in options flow, single-stock volatility events, and even online poker, which AI increasingly dominates.
As AI tools continue to scale, expect this to get worse: a small cohort running semi-automated strategies extracting semi-consistent edge, and a much larger base supplying them returns. Under the pressure of AI prevalance, markets don’t flatten, the return gradient steepens to a cliff…
Fewer and fewer winners take more and more of the pot. The mechanics of concentration: “AI is Eating Markets” from @paulkedrosky.com.
* Warren Buffett
###
As we contemplate concentration, we might note that today is Mother’s Day. As noted yesterday, the observance became official on that date in 1914. But the quest to honor moms began a good bit earlier. On this date in 1908, Anna Jarvis held a memorial for her mother at St. Andrew’s Methodist Church in Grafton, West Virginia, the location of the International Mother’s Day Shrine. But her quest to create Mother’s Day had begun three years earlier when her mother Ann, a lifelong activist, died.
Ann had tried to start a “Mother’s Remembrance Day” in the mid-19th century. On her passing, Anna enlisted the support of retailer extraordinaire John Wanamaker, who knew a merchandising opportunity when he saw one, and who hosted the first Mother’s Day ceremonies in his Philadelphia emporium’s auditorium. In 1912, Anna trademarked the phrases “second Sunday in May” and “Mother’s Day”, and created the Mother’s Day International Association. By 1914, she and Wanamaker had built sufficient support in Congress to score the Congressional Resolution noted yesterday. (President Wilson, who was by current accounts uninterested in the move– distracted as he was by the beginnings of his ultimately unsuccessful effort to keep the U.S. out of the troubles in Europe that became World War I– nonetheless knew better than to take a stand against moms.)
Anna Jarvis (source) #AI #AnnJarvis #AnnaJarvis #artificialIntelligence #concentration #culture #gambling #history #investing #JohnWanamaker #MotherSDay #predictionMarkets #speculation #Technology #WoodrowWilson -
“Gambling is a tax on ignorance”*…
And as Einstein observed, “two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe.”
Gambling– and related specualtive investments– have always been, for the vast majority of punters, a sucker’s bet. But, as Paul Kedrosky explains, the growing prevalence of AI and the emergence of prediction markets have amplified that painful reality…
The return skew in prediction markets’ returns is startling. It is partly a function of their nature, but also of vibe-coding script kiddies attacking every market anomaly as quickly as it arises. Check a recent WSJ article for examples.
The same dynamic is now spreading across retail-dominated markets. A driver is how AI lowers the cost of systematic exploitation and exploration to near zero. What used to require infrastructure, data pipelines, and bearded quants is now accessible via off-the-shelf models, APIs, and loosely stitched “agent” workflows doing … stuff that even their users don’t fully understand.
The result isn’t democratization of returns. It is wider participation, of a sort, alongside the rapid re-concentration of profits. A small subset of users—those willing to iterate fastest, monitor continuously, and deploy capital programmatically—capture gains, with everyone else just liquidity.
They scrape sentiment, parse new information, and reprice positions in seconds, compressing the half-life of mispricings. That doesn’t eliminate inefficiency, but changes who harvests it. The edge shifts from insight to speed, coverage, and execution discipline—areas where even modest automation compounds quickly, and edges disappear overnight.
Prediction markets are simply the cleanest expression of this trend because they combine thin liquidity, discrete outcomes, and high retail participation. But the same pattern is visible in options flow, single-stock volatility events, and even online poker, which AI increasingly dominates.
As AI tools continue to scale, expect this to get worse: a small cohort running semi-automated strategies extracting semi-consistent edge, and a much larger base supplying them returns. Under the pressure of AI prevalance, markets don’t flatten, the return gradient steepens to a cliff…
Fewer and fewer winners take more and more of the pot. The mechanics of concentration: “AI is Eating Markets” from @paulkedrosky.com.
* Warren Buffett
###
As we contemplate concentration, we might note that today is Mother’s Day. As noted yesterday, the observance became official on that date in 1914. But the quest to honor moms began a good bit earlier. On this date in 1908, Anna Jarvis held a memorial for her mother at St. Andrew’s Methodist Church in Grafton, West Virginia, the location of the International Mother’s Day Shrine. But her quest to create Mother’s Day had begun three years earlier when her mother Ann, a lifelong activist, died.
Ann had tried to start a “Mother’s Remembrance Day” in the mid-19th century. On her passing, Anna enlisted the support of retailer extraordinaire John Wanamaker, who knew a merchandising opportunity when he saw one, and who hosted the first Mother’s Day ceremonies in his Philadelphia emporium’s auditorium. In 1912, Anna trademarked the phrases “second Sunday in May” and “Mother’s Day”, and created the Mother’s Day International Association. By 1914, she and Wanamaker had built sufficient support in Congress to score the Congressional Resolution noted yesterday. (President Wilson, who was by current accounts uninterested in the move– distracted as he was by the beginnings of his ultimately unsuccessful effort to keep the U.S. out of the troubles in Europe that became World War I– nonetheless knew better than to take a stand against moms.)
Anna Jarvis (source) #AI #AnnJarvis #AnnaJarvis #artificialIntelligence #concentration #culture #gambling #history #investing #JohnWanamaker #MotherSDay #predictionMarkets #Technology #WoodrowWilson -
“Gambling is a tax on ignorance”*…
And as Einstein observed, “two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe.”
Gambling– and related specualtive investments– have always been, for the vast majority of punters, a sucker’s bet. But, as Paul Kedrosky explains, the growing prevalence of AI and the emergence of prediction markets have amplified that painful reality…
The return skew in prediction markets’ returns is startling. It is partly a function of their nature, but also of vibe-coding script kiddies attacking every market anomaly as quickly as it arises. Check a recent WSJ article for examples.
The same dynamic is now spreading across retail-dominated markets. A driver is how AI lowers the cost of systematic exploitation and exploration to near zero. What used to require infrastructure, data pipelines, and bearded quants is now accessible via off-the-shelf models, APIs, and loosely stitched “agent” workflows doing … stuff that even their users don’t fully understand.
The result isn’t democratization of returns. It is wider participation, of a sort, alongside the rapid re-concentration of profits. A small subset of users—those willing to iterate fastest, monitor continuously, and deploy capital programmatically—capture gains, with everyone else just liquidity.
They scrape sentiment, parse new information, and reprice positions in seconds, compressing the half-life of mispricings. That doesn’t eliminate inefficiency, but changes who harvests it. The edge shifts from insight to speed, coverage, and execution discipline—areas where even modest automation compounds quickly, and edges disappear overnight.
Prediction markets are simply the cleanest expression of this trend because they combine thin liquidity, discrete outcomes, and high retail participation. But the same pattern is visible in options flow, single-stock volatility events, and even online poker, which AI increasingly dominates.
As AI tools continue to scale, expect this to get worse: a small cohort running semi-automated strategies extracting semi-consistent edge, and a much larger base supplying them returns. Under the pressure of AI prevalance, markets don’t flatten, the return gradient steepens to a cliff…
Fewer and fewer winners take more and more of the pot. The mechanics of concentration: “AI is Eating Markets” from @paulkedrosky.com.
* Warren Buffett
###
As we contemplate concentration, we might note that today is Mother’s Day. As noted yesterday, the observance became official on that date in 1914. But the quest to honor moms began a good bit earlier. On this date in 1908, Anna Jarvis held a memorial for her mother at St. Andrew’s Methodist Church in Grafton, West Virginia, the location of the International Mother’s Day Shrine. But her quest to create Mother’s Day had begun three years earlier when her mother Ann, a lifelong activist, died.
Ann had tried to start a “Mother’s Remembrance Day” in the mid-19th century. On her passing, Anna enlisted the support of retailer extraordinaire John Wanamaker, who knew a merchandising opportunity when he saw one, and who hosted the first Mother’s Day ceremonies in his Philadelphia emporium’s auditorium. In 1912, Anna trademarked the phrases “second Sunday in May” and “Mother’s Day”, and created the Mother’s Day International Association. By 1914, she and Wanamaker had built sufficient support in Congress to score the Congressional Resolution noted yesterday. (President Wilson, who was by current accounts uninterested in the move– distracted as he was by the beginnings of his ultimately unsuccessful effort to keep the U.S. out of the troubles in Europe that became World War I– nonetheless knew better than to take a stand against moms.)
Anna Jarvis (source) #AI #AnnJarvis #AnnaJarvis #artificialIntelligence #concentration #culture #gambling #history #investing #JohnWanamaker #MotherSDay #predictionMarkets #Technology #WoodrowWilson -
“Gambling is a tax on ignorance”*…
And as Einstein observed, “two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe.”
Gambling– and related specualtive investments– have always been, for the vast majority of punters, a sucker’s bet. But, as Paul Kedrosky explains, the growing prevalence of AI and the emergence of prediction markets have amplified that painful reality…
The return skew in prediction markets’ returns is startling. It is partly a function of their nature, but also of vibe-coding script kiddies attacking every market anomaly as quickly as it arises. Check a recent WSJ article for examples.
The same dynamic is now spreading across retail-dominated markets. A driver is how AI lowers the cost of systematic exploitation and exploration to near zero. What used to require infrastructure, data pipelines, and bearded quants is now accessible via off-the-shelf models, APIs, and loosely stitched “agent” workflows doing … stuff that even their users don’t fully understand.
The result isn’t democratization of returns. It is wider participation, of a sort, alongside the rapid re-concentration of profits. A small subset of users—those willing to iterate fastest, monitor continuously, and deploy capital programmatically—capture gains, with everyone else just liquidity.
They scrape sentiment, parse new information, and reprice positions in seconds, compressing the half-life of mispricings. That doesn’t eliminate inefficiency, but changes who harvests it. The edge shifts from insight to speed, coverage, and execution discipline—areas where even modest automation compounds quickly, and edges disappear overnight.
Prediction markets are simply the cleanest expression of this trend because they combine thin liquidity, discrete outcomes, and high retail participation. But the same pattern is visible in options flow, single-stock volatility events, and even online poker, which AI increasingly dominates.
As AI tools continue to scale, expect this to get worse: a small cohort running semi-automated strategies extracting semi-consistent edge, and a much larger base supplying them returns. Under the pressure of AI prevalance, markets don’t flatten, the return gradient steepens to a cliff…
Fewer and fewer winners take more and more of the pot. The mechanics of concentration: “AI is Eating Markets” from @paulkedrosky.com.
* Warren Buffett
###
As we contemplate concentration, we might note that today is Mother’s Day. As noted yesterday, the observance became official on that date in 1914. But the quest to honor moms began a good bit earlier. On this date in 1908, Anna Jarvis held a memorial for her mother at St. Andrew’s Methodist Church in Grafton, West Virginia, the location of the International Mother’s Day Shrine. But her quest to create Mother’s Day had begun three years earlier when her mother Ann, a lifelong activist, died.
Ann had tried to start a “Mother’s Remembrance Day” in the mid-19th century. On her passing, Anna enlisted the support of retailer extraordinaire John Wanamaker, who knew a merchandising opportunity when he saw one, and who hosted the first Mother’s Day ceremonies in his Philadelphia emporium’s auditorium. In 1912, Anna trademarked the phrases “second Sunday in May” and “Mother’s Day”, and created the Mother’s Day International Association. By 1914, she and Wanamaker had built sufficient support in Congress to score the Congressional Resolution noted yesterday. (President Wilson, who was by current accounts uninterested in the move– distracted as he was by the beginnings of his ultimately unsuccessful effort to keep the U.S. out of the troubles in Europe that became World War I– nonetheless knew better than to take a stand against moms.)
Anna Jarvis (source) #AI #AnnJarvis #AnnaJarvis #artificialIntelligence #concentration #culture #gambling #history #investing #JohnWanamaker #MotherSDay #predictionMarkets #speculation #Technology #WoodrowWilson -
https://www.europesays.com/ee/173954/ Kalshi väärtus tõusis 22 miljardi dollarini pärast 1 miljardi dollari suurust F-seeria rahastamisvooru #Äri #Business #EE #Eesti #EestiKeel #Estonia #Estonian #Kalshi #PredictionMarkets
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Het Amerikaanse Polymarket is illegaal actief in Nederland met hun gigantische gok-website. John Oliver met #LastWeekTonight legt uit wat de problemen met #PredictionMarkets zijn:
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Het Amerikaanse Polymarket is illegaal actief in Nederland met hun gigantische gok-website. John Oliver met #LastWeekTonight legt uit wat de problemen met #PredictionMarkets zijn:
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Het Amerikaanse Polymarket is illegaal actief in Nederland met hun gigantische gok-website. John Oliver met #LastWeekTonight legt uit wat de problemen met #PredictionMarkets zijn:
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Het Amerikaanse Polymarket is illegaal actief in Nederland met hun gigantische gok-website. John Oliver met #LastWeekTonight legt uit wat de problemen met #PredictionMarkets zijn:
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Het Amerikaanse Polymarket is illegaal actief in Nederland met hun gigantische gok-website. John Oliver met #LastWeekTonight legt uit wat de problemen met #PredictionMarkets zijn:
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"On the 21st floor of a gleaming skyscraper in the heart of the upscale Punta Pacifica neighborhood here is the official corporate office of Polymarket, the wildly popular prediction market site that has flourished in President Trump's second term.
Polymarket, which is worth an estimated $15 billion, moved to its Panama base following scrutiny from American regulators. If Polymarket users have a legal dispute, the company's terms of service states it will be resolved in a closed-door arbitration process in Panama.
But when NPR recently visited the law office listed as its home base in Panamanian government documents, there was no sign of Polymarket, nor the entity it does business as in Panama, Adventure One QSS Inc.
Instead, a nondescript corporate lobby opened into a large space with about a dozen unoccupied computer stations positioned in the middle of the room. An office worker said the attorney who runs the firm, Mario García de Paredes, was not available. The worker had never heard of Polymarket or Adventure One.
Public records show that Polymarket is far from alone in using this Panama City law office as a headquarters in an office park known as the Oceania Business Plaza. So do at least 15 other cryptocurrency companies, including Helix, Drift Protocol, Goldfinch and Parti, a crypto-based prediction market live-streaming site that partners with Polymarket, according to publicly available corporate records.
Court filings show the law office also did work for FTX, the now-collapsed exchange whose founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, was handed a 25-year prison sentence in the fraud scandal that took down the crypto empire. In a bankruptcy document detailing unpaid FTX debts, the law office is listed as being owed $13,889."
https://www.npr.org/2026/05/05/nx-s1-5807918/polymarket-panama-prediction-market
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"On the 21st floor of a gleaming skyscraper in the heart of the upscale Punta Pacifica neighborhood here is the official corporate office of Polymarket, the wildly popular prediction market site that has flourished in President Trump's second term.
Polymarket, which is worth an estimated $15 billion, moved to its Panama base following scrutiny from American regulators. If Polymarket users have a legal dispute, the company's terms of service states it will be resolved in a closed-door arbitration process in Panama.
But when NPR recently visited the law office listed as its home base in Panamanian government documents, there was no sign of Polymarket, nor the entity it does business as in Panama, Adventure One QSS Inc.
Instead, a nondescript corporate lobby opened into a large space with about a dozen unoccupied computer stations positioned in the middle of the room. An office worker said the attorney who runs the firm, Mario García de Paredes, was not available. The worker had never heard of Polymarket or Adventure One.
Public records show that Polymarket is far from alone in using this Panama City law office as a headquarters in an office park known as the Oceania Business Plaza. So do at least 15 other cryptocurrency companies, including Helix, Drift Protocol, Goldfinch and Parti, a crypto-based prediction market live-streaming site that partners with Polymarket, according to publicly available corporate records.
Court filings show the law office also did work for FTX, the now-collapsed exchange whose founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, was handed a 25-year prison sentence in the fraud scandal that took down the crypto empire. In a bankruptcy document detailing unpaid FTX debts, the law office is listed as being owed $13,889."
https://www.npr.org/2026/05/05/nx-s1-5807918/polymarket-panama-prediction-market
-
"On the 21st floor of a gleaming skyscraper in the heart of the upscale Punta Pacifica neighborhood here is the official corporate office of Polymarket, the wildly popular prediction market site that has flourished in President Trump's second term.
Polymarket, which is worth an estimated $15 billion, moved to its Panama base following scrutiny from American regulators. If Polymarket users have a legal dispute, the company's terms of service states it will be resolved in a closed-door arbitration process in Panama.
But when NPR recently visited the law office listed as its home base in Panamanian government documents, there was no sign of Polymarket, nor the entity it does business as in Panama, Adventure One QSS Inc.
Instead, a nondescript corporate lobby opened into a large space with about a dozen unoccupied computer stations positioned in the middle of the room. An office worker said the attorney who runs the firm, Mario García de Paredes, was not available. The worker had never heard of Polymarket or Adventure One.
Public records show that Polymarket is far from alone in using this Panama City law office as a headquarters in an office park known as the Oceania Business Plaza. So do at least 15 other cryptocurrency companies, including Helix, Drift Protocol, Goldfinch and Parti, a crypto-based prediction market live-streaming site that partners with Polymarket, according to publicly available corporate records.
Court filings show the law office also did work for FTX, the now-collapsed exchange whose founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, was handed a 25-year prison sentence in the fraud scandal that took down the crypto empire. In a bankruptcy document detailing unpaid FTX debts, the law office is listed as being owed $13,889."
https://www.npr.org/2026/05/05/nx-s1-5807918/polymarket-panama-prediction-market
-
"On the 21st floor of a gleaming skyscraper in the heart of the upscale Punta Pacifica neighborhood here is the official corporate office of Polymarket, the wildly popular prediction market site that has flourished in President Trump's second term.
Polymarket, which is worth an estimated $15 billion, moved to its Panama base following scrutiny from American regulators. If Polymarket users have a legal dispute, the company's terms of service states it will be resolved in a closed-door arbitration process in Panama.
But when NPR recently visited the law office listed as its home base in Panamanian government documents, there was no sign of Polymarket, nor the entity it does business as in Panama, Adventure One QSS Inc.
Instead, a nondescript corporate lobby opened into a large space with about a dozen unoccupied computer stations positioned in the middle of the room. An office worker said the attorney who runs the firm, Mario García de Paredes, was not available. The worker had never heard of Polymarket or Adventure One.
Public records show that Polymarket is far from alone in using this Panama City law office as a headquarters in an office park known as the Oceania Business Plaza. So do at least 15 other cryptocurrency companies, including Helix, Drift Protocol, Goldfinch and Parti, a crypto-based prediction market live-streaming site that partners with Polymarket, according to publicly available corporate records.
Court filings show the law office also did work for FTX, the now-collapsed exchange whose founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, was handed a 25-year prison sentence in the fraud scandal that took down the crypto empire. In a bankruptcy document detailing unpaid FTX debts, the law office is listed as being owed $13,889."
https://www.npr.org/2026/05/05/nx-s1-5807918/polymarket-panama-prediction-market
-
"On the 21st floor of a gleaming skyscraper in the heart of the upscale Punta Pacifica neighborhood here is the official corporate office of Polymarket, the wildly popular prediction market site that has flourished in President Trump's second term.
Polymarket, which is worth an estimated $15 billion, moved to its Panama base following scrutiny from American regulators. If Polymarket users have a legal dispute, the company's terms of service states it will be resolved in a closed-door arbitration process in Panama.
But when NPR recently visited the law office listed as its home base in Panamanian government documents, there was no sign of Polymarket, nor the entity it does business as in Panama, Adventure One QSS Inc.
Instead, a nondescript corporate lobby opened into a large space with about a dozen unoccupied computer stations positioned in the middle of the room. An office worker said the attorney who runs the firm, Mario García de Paredes, was not available. The worker had never heard of Polymarket or Adventure One.
Public records show that Polymarket is far from alone in using this Panama City law office as a headquarters in an office park known as the Oceania Business Plaza. So do at least 15 other cryptocurrency companies, including Helix, Drift Protocol, Goldfinch and Parti, a crypto-based prediction market live-streaming site that partners with Polymarket, according to publicly available corporate records.
Court filings show the law office also did work for FTX, the now-collapsed exchange whose founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, was handed a 25-year prison sentence in the fraud scandal that took down the crypto empire. In a bankruptcy document detailing unpaid FTX debts, the law office is listed as being owed $13,889."
https://www.npr.org/2026/05/05/nx-s1-5807918/polymarket-panama-prediction-market
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Looking at the data behind prediction markets
https://asteriskmag.com/issues/14/are-prediction-markets-good-for-anything
#HackerNews #predictionmarkets #dataanalysis #technology #insights #futuretrends
-
Looking at the data behind prediction markets
https://asteriskmag.com/issues/14/are-prediction-markets-good-for-anything
#HackerNews #predictionmarkets #dataanalysis #technology #insights #futuretrends
-
Looking at the data behind prediction markets
https://asteriskmag.com/issues/14/are-prediction-markets-good-for-anything
#HackerNews #predictionmarkets #dataanalysis #technology #insights #futuretrends