#economicrecession — Public Fediverse posts

Philippines 2026 Growth Outlook Sharply Downgraded by S&P and ADB

It looks like there is no end yet for the ongoing economic disappointment for the Philippines as S&P Global Ratings and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) sharply downgraded their respective 2026 growth forecasts for the country, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

S&P GLOBAL RATINGS and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) sharply downgraded their Philippine growth forecasts for this year as a weaker-than-expected first half and persistent economic headwinds threaten to stall the country’s recovery.

Based on its latest Economic Outlook for Asia-Pacific published on Wednesday, S&P cut its Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for this year to 2.9% from 4.1%.

“We have lowered our growth forecast for 2026, reflecting the weaker-than-expected first-half growth and a more gradual recovery trajectory,” S&P Global Ratings Asia-Pacific Senior Economist Vishrut Rana said in an e-mailed response to questions. “It will take some time for the economy to recover its footing.”

At the same time, ADB trimmed its 2026 Philippine GDP growth projection to 3.3% from the 3.8% forecast it made in July.

“In the Philippines, weak public investment contributed to the 2026 downgrade from 3.8% to 3.3%, although a rebound is expected to support growth of 5.1% in 2027,” the Manila-based multilateral lender said in its Asian Development Outlook report released on Wednesday.

The ADB said that household consumption remained subdued amid high inflation and weak consumer confidence.

According to the ADB report, the Philippines is expected to be one of the slowest-growing economies in developing Southeast Asia this year, ahead only of Brunei Darussalam (1.2%), Thailand (2%) and Myanmar (2.2%). Vietnam is expected to post the fastest growth this year with 7.8%, followed by Indonesia (5.2%), Malaysia (4.9%), the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (4%), Timor-Leste (4%) and Cambodia (3.9%).

The lower growth projections from S&P and ADB come after the Philippine economy grew by 2.3% — a new post-pandemic low — in the second quarter, bringing first-half growth to 2.6%.

If S&P and ADB’s estimates hold, GDP growth will be slower than 4.4% in 2025, when a massive flood control corruption mess dampened the country’s spending and investments.

This year could also mark the fourth straight year that the government will miss its full-year growth goal. For this year, the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) is targeting 3.5%-4.5% GDP growth.

“The economy is facing a sharp pullback in public capital expenditure, a steep energy price shock, and elevated food prices, partly due to El Niño conditions,” S&P’s Mr. Rana said.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Did you notice how the national economy got weaker as the government of the Philippines focused more on foreign affairs and the hosting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit? Are you convinced there is simply no room for economic improvement for the Philippines this year? Do you think the Philippines is on its way to falling into a recession in 2027?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @CarloCarrascoPH as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram at https://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Moody’s Analytics Cuts Philippines 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 3%

By citing key factors like weak consumption, Middle East oil shock and the collapse in private investment, Moody’s Analytics officially slashed its 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines to 3%, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

MOODY’S ANALYTICS slashed its 2026 growth forecast for the Philippines, amid weak consumption and a collapse in private investment.

In its latest Asia-Pacific Outlook report dated Aug. 24, the analytics firm said it now sees Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 3% this year, slower than its 4% projection in June.

“We lowered our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3% from 4% in the June vintage after incorporating the second-quarter GDP result, which was far weaker than expected,” Moody’s Analytics Assistant Director and Economist Sarah Tan said in an e-mailed reply to questions.

The Philippine economy slumped to its worst post-pandemic growth of 2.3% in the April-to-June period, as investments and public construction continued to reel from last year’s flood control corruption scandal. Rising prices from the Middle East war-driven oil shock also strained household spending.

“The economy expanded by just 2.3% year on year, with private consumption showing notable weakness and private investment collapsing,” Ms. Tan noted. “This points to softer underlying domestic demand than we had previously anticipated.”

As of the first half of 2026, the country’s GDP growth averaged 2.6%, well below the government’s 3.5%-4.5% full-year target.

If Moody’s Analytics’ forecast holds true, the government will miss its growth target for a fourth year in a row. The economy would also further soften from last year’s post-pandemic low growth of 4.4%.

Economists earlier said that reaching even the bottom end of the government’s target entails a steep climb, as it means the economy must grow by at least 4.4% in the second half.

Moody’s Analytics sees growth recovering over the next two years to 4.6% in 2027 and 5.1% in 2028. The government wants full-year expansion to be between 5% and 6% from 2027 to 2030.

Meanwhile, GlobalSource Partners Country Analyst Diwa C. Guinigundo noted that the Philippines could face a more complicated path toward fiscal consolidation if growth remains below potential.

“Slower growth would make fiscal consolidation and debt reduction more difficult,” he said in a Viber message. “The issue is not simply that government revenues would grow more slowly; a weaker economy also means a smaller denominator for the debt-to-GDP ratio.”

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think 2026 will end up as a very disappointing year of economic growth for the Philippines? Do you think the economy of the Philippines could still fall into a recession in 2027 or in the first half of 2028? Are you convinced that the Philippines has nothing to gain economically from hosting the ASEAN Summit?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @CarloCarrascoPH as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

Russia might not win the prolonged ‘war of attrition’ against Ukraine, Moscow’s chief economist warns: Here’s why

Andrei Klepach, chief economist of Russian state-owned bank Vnesheconombank (VEB), recently said that Russia might not be able…
#EuropeSays #Russia #Moscow #AndreiKlepach #economicrecession #russianeconomy #Ukraineconflict #westernsanctions
https://www.europesays.com/russia/51736/

Philippines Economic Weakness Continues As 2nd Quarter GDP Growth Lands At 2.3%

The economy of the Philippines slowed down even further in the 2nd quarter of 2026 landing at 2.3%, according to a news report by GMA News. Embarrassingly, this made the Philippines an economic weakling among the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

By comparison, the economy of the Philippines achieved only 2.8% growth in the 1st quarter of this year. The nation’s economic growth for 2025 was at 4.4%

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the GMA News report. Some parts in boldface…

The Philippine economy continued to slow down in the second quarter of 2026, still due to a subdued investor and consumer sentiment amid the lingering effects of the flood control corruption scandal and the inflationary pressure brought by Middle East crisis-induced global fuel price shocks, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Friday.

At a press conference, PSA chief and National Statistician Claire Dennis Mapa said the economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP)—the value of goods and services produced in a period— grew 2.3% in the April to June 2026 period, slower than the 2.8% growth seen in the first quarter of 2026.

This is the economy’s weakest footing since the fourth quarter of 2009 —excluding the contraction seen during the COVID-19 pandemic years— when the GDP growth rate was at 1.8%.

The 2.8% second quarter GDP growth put the Philippines behind its neighbors in Southeast Asia that already released their April to June economic growth rates such as Indonesia at 5.29%, Vietnam at 8.39%, and Singapore at 5.7%.

The first half of 2026 GDP growth rate stood at 2.6%, still behind the government’s downwardly revised target of 3.5% to 4.5% for the entire year.

Despite the economic slowdown, Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said, “What we are experiencing right now, I believe, is transitory, temporary.”

“Domestic demand remained subdued, mainly because total investment continued to contract as public construction declined. Household consumption growth also moderated amid higher inflation, job losses, and lower remittance receipts arising from the Middle East conflict,” Balisacan said.

Household final consumption expenditure grew 2.8%, slower than 5.2% in the same period last year, weighed by contractions in transport (-7.5%), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (-1.9%), recreation and culture (-0.8%), and restaurants and hotels (-0.2%).

Government expenditure, likewise, slowed down by 8.3% from 8.7% year-on-year; while gross capital formation (GCF) —which measures investments— contracted by 9.2% from a growth rate of 0.9% a year ago.

The decline in GCF was due to the decline in construction at 14.8% with government spending on construction contracting 32.4%.

“Although public construction is a small part of the economy, the amount of contraction, at 32%, brought a significant impact on the economy,” Balisacan said.

“The sharp decline in public construction was the main contributor in the decline in investments… driven by continuous caution due to the flood control scandal,” the country’s chief economist said.

Among the major economic sectors, agriculture posted a growth rate of 2.7%, slower than 7% year-on-year; industry declined by 2.4%, from an increase of 2.1% weighed by the construction’s depreciation; services grew slower at 4.5% from 6.9%.

Agriculture, industry, and services sector contributed 7.5%, 27.9%, and 63.3%, respectively to the total GDP during the quarter.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think the economy of the Philippines will eventually fall into a recession in 2027? Do you believe that the hosting of the ASEAN summit by the Philippines will result in economic miracles and more foreign investment?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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Thank you for reading. If you find this article engaging, please click the like button below, share this article to others and also please consider making a donation to support my publishing. If you are looking for a copywriter to create content for your special project or business, check out my services and my portfolio. Feel free to contact me with a private message. Also please feel free to visit my Facebook page Author Carlo Carrasco and follow me on Twitter at @CarloCarrascoPH as well as on Tumblr at https://carlocarrasco.tumblr.com/ and on Instagram athttps://www.instagram.com/authorcarlocarrasco

https://www.europesays.com/iran/83980/ The billion-barrel Hormuz oil shock is about to crash demand #BrentCrudePrice #EconomicRecession #GlobalOilDemand #Hormuz #HormuzOilShock #OilDemandCrash #OilSupplyLoss #StraitOfHormuz

https://www.europesays.com/2876013/ Bundesbank warns, Germany may fall into economic recession #Bundesbank #CentralBank #CentralBanks #CentralBanksOfTheEuropeanSystem #DeutscheBank #DeutscheBundesbank #ECB #EconomicRecession #Economy #ESCB #Europe #European #EuropeanCentralBank #EuropeanCentralBanks #germany #THEBANKOFENGLAND #TheBankOfFrance #TheBankOfItaly

4th Recession In My Life, All Under Republicans

#economy #recession #economicrecession #trumpnomics #maganomics

https://www.europesays.com/2561236/ New Federal Reserve Governor Steven Miran Challenges Consensus on US Economy | Ukraine news #EconomicRecession #Economy #FederalReserve #FederalReserveStevenMiranUsEconomyMonetaryPolicyInterestRatesEconomicRecessionTrumpAdministration #FederalReserveSystem #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #News #StevenMiran #TrumpAdministration #USEconomy

Is Trump clueless or soulless? Both. #EconomicCrisis #MarketCrash #Depression #EconomicRecession #WallStreetCrisis #RecordUnemployment #NegativeGDP

Trump's Economic Trainwreck

Eurozone emerges from recession but France, Germany stay weak https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/eurozone-emerges-from-recession-but-france-germany-stay-weak/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=mastodon #economicrecession #Economy #energycrisis #EuropeanCentralBank

📖 In the journal Diasporas, @victorpereira published an essay on the new wave of Portuguese emigration triggered by the economic recession of the 21st century.

🔓 Available on #OpenAccess: https://doi.org/10.4000/diasporas.11029

@histodons

#Histodons #NewPaper #Migrations #PortugueseEmigrants #EconomicRecession #EuropeanMigrants #EmigrantesPortugueses #CriseEconómica #Austeridade #Austerity #Migrações

Wall Street Divided: Treasury Yields Surge Sparks Intense Debates and Divergent Bets - In recent weeks, Treasury yields have skyrocketed, igniting a Wall Street dispute ... - https://news.bitcoin.com/wall-street-divided-treasury-yields-surge-sparks-intense-debates-and-divergent-bets/ #short-terminterestrates #long-terminterestrates #u.s.treasuryyieldcurve #invertedyieldcurve #creditriskprofile #economicrecession #potentialdownturn #reliableindicator #unusualoccurrence #financialanomaly

Germany expects major investments worth €80bn despite economic slowdown https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/germany-expects-major-investments-worth-e80bn-despite-economic-slowdown/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=mastodon #economicdata #economicdependency #economicrecession #EUChipsAct

ECB to hike rates again, keep options open for September https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/ecb-to-hike-rates-again-keep-options-open-for-september/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=mastodon #economicrecession #EuropeanCentralBank #EuropeanCentralBankECB

Economic crisis in real estate! Will profit through war compensate loss in other sectors? #EconomicRecession

Deja Vu moments of Dec 2007 Great #EconomicRecession start!!
THAT time triggered by Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, THIS time by #Bankruptcy of #SiliconValleyBank!!

THE CASCADING EFFECT STARTS!!

#BankofEngland is seeking Court Order to place #SiliconValleyBank- UK Ltd into #Insolvency Proceedings
#SVB's #British arm had sought 1.8 Billion Pounds of #Liquidity from #BoE via its discount window facility, which offers emergency funding to banks In return got Insolvency Proceedings initiated

And global #EconomicRecession is due capitalism, irrespective of which form it exists in various countries!
"Microsoft intends to cut up to 11,000 jobs, or 5% of its workforce due to the global economic slope: Sky News"

CISOs and security leaders are looking for advice on how to prepare for an upcoming economic recession, and experienced security leaders have come together to discuss the security trends from past recessions, as well as advice for how to adjust their security strategy if faced with resource constraints. https://www.brighttalk.com/webcast/10415/568066 #CISO #SecurityLeaders #SecurityTrends #EconomicRecession

Goldman Predicts US Recession Odds at 35% in 2 Years, John Mauldin Wouldn’t Be Surprised if Stocks Fell 40%

https://news.bitcoin.com/goldman-predicts-us-recession-odds-at-35-in-2-years-john-mauldin-wouldnt-be-surprised-if-stocks-fell-40/

#BridgewaterAssociatesfounder #GoldmanSachs’chiefeconomist #historicalpatterns #invertedyieldcurve #EconomicRecession #economicpatterns #recessionsignals #StockMarketCrash #notetoinvestors #40%stockscrash #FederalReserve #recessionsigns #gloomyeconomy

IMF Warns Ongoing War in Europe Will Have a ‘Severe Impact on the Global Economy’

https://news.bitcoin.com/imf-warns-ongoing-war-in-europe-will-have-a-severe-impact-on-the-global-economy/

#InternationalMonetaryFund #KristalinaGeorgieva #EconomicRecession #IMFexecutiveboard #sanctionsonRussia #USFederalReserve #warrelatedissues #DowJonesfutures #GreatDepression #WorldBankGroup #GlobalEconomy #Nasdaqfutures #S&P500futures #CentralBanks #energystocks #interestrate #commodities #Economics

This #EconomicRecession will be the outcome of incapability of current Union government to cooperate. Economy will not bow to power politics.