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AMRO Slashes 2026 Philippines GDP Growth Forecast

The Philippines, which is currently the host of the ASEAN Summit and is also one of the economic weaklings of Southeast Asia, is predicted by ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) to have slower gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year, according to a news report by BusinessWorld.

To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the news report of BusinessWorld. Some parts in boldface…

THE Philippine economy may continue to grow below its potential through 2027 as persistent energy shocks and weak investment weigh on activity, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) said.

In its latest ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook, AMRO slashed its Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth projections for this year to 3.3% from its July estimate of 4.1% and for 2027 to 4.6% from 5.5%.

Both forecasts are below the National Government’s growth targets of 3.5%-4.5% for 2026 and 5%-6% for 2027.

AMRO also trimmed its inflation forecast for this year to 5.6% from 5.7% previously but raised it for next year to 4.6% from 4.1% previously.

If realized, inflation will accelerate from the 1.7% clip last year and breach the central bank’s 3% target for two consecutive years.

At a press briefing on Monday, AMRO Chief Economist Dong He noted that the Middle East war-driven energy shock took a heavy toll on the Philippine economy, significantly slowing growth while fueling inflation.

“The Philippines is one of the economies that was hit harder by the energy shock,” he said. “As you recall, when the Middle East conflict took place, the government took very swift action and they introduced a national emergency. So that, I think, helped the country galvanize towards responses towards this big energy shock.”

“But of course, growth did slow down significantly and the inflation went up very quickly,” Mr. He added.

The AMRO chief economist also noted that the Philippine economy continues to be weighed down by an investment slump following the flood control corruption scandal which broke out last year.

“Now, the Philippines also have some domestic issues that they need to deal with,” Mr. He said. “Remember, there was this flood control-related issue and that significantly slowed down public investment.”

“So, the growth outlook is very dependent on how fast public investment and construction related activities can pick up,” he added.

Let me end this post by asking you readers: What is your reaction to this recent development? Do you think there really is not much the government can do to boost economic growth this year? What is your opinion about the way the current economic managers of the Philippines are handling economic matters? Would you be surprised to see the Philippine economy fall into a recession in the first half of 2028?

You may answer in the comments below. If you prefer to answer privately, you may do so by sending me a direct message online.

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