#solarflares — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #solarflares, aggregated by home.social.
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#Solarflares may show predictable warning signs hours before erupting
Observations could help forecast big outbursts in the future
Observations of the lead-up to a massive #solarflare revealed changes near #sun's surface starting three hours before the flash, scientists report. The results could help experts develop methods to predict future solar flares, potentially giving us time to protect Earth’s power grid, orbiting satellites and astronauts.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/solar-flare-warning-signs-eruptions
https://archive.ph/CwA1y -
#SolarFlares (Magnitude 2+) in the past 72hours (via #SolarHam)
Flare Events (M2+) Past 72 Hours
M5.2 AR 4366 2/2/26 @ 02:50 UTC
X2.8 AR 4366 2/2/26 @ 00:36 UTC
X8.1 AR 4366 2/1/26 @ 23:57 UTC
M5.1 AR 4366 2/1/26 @ 16:07 UTC
M5.8 AR 4366 2/1/26 @ 12:50 UTC
X1.0 AR 4366 2/1/26 @ 12:33 UTC
M6.7 AR 4366 2/1/26 @ 12:12 UTC
M2.8 AR 4366 2/1/26 @ 10:13 UTC
M6.6 AR 4366 2/1/26 @ 10:02 UTCSource:
https://solarham.com/ -
My estimation (based on the position of #AR4366) is that it will be Earth-facing in 4-5 days...
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@solarflarealert Another one?!!! Yikes!
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From #SolarHam - Progression of new #Sunspot #AR4366 (not yet Earth-facing, but will be soon):
"Sunspot Watch
January 31, 2026 @ 04:15 UTC
Newly assigned sunspot region 4366 continues to gradually develop as it turns into view in the northeast quadrant. It is currently producing minor C-Class flares and it is likely now a threat for a moderate M-Flare. Something to keep an eye on this weekend. Image by SDO/HMI.Growing Flare Threat
January 31, 2026 @ 14:50 UTC
AR 4366 continued to expand over the past 12 hours in both size and magnetic complexity. The region has a Beta-Delta magnetic configuration and is producing frequent mid level minor C-Flares. A moderate M-Flare will remain possible on Saturday.M6.6 Solar Flare
February 1, 2026 @ 10:40 UTC
Solar activity increases even further with an M6.6 solar flare peaking at 10:02 UTC (Feb 1). The source, AR 4366, is magnetically complex and is now a threat for an isolated X-Flare. Image below by SDO/AIA.High Solar Activity
February 1, 2026 @ 16:50 UTC (UPDATED)
What a difference a few days make on the Sun. Active sunspot region 4366 turned into a firecracker on Sunday with at least fifteen M-Class solar flares and one X-Flare (so far). Despite the brightness of these events, the mechanics have so far failed to launch any noteworthy coronal mass ejections into space and towards our planet. That could change over the next few days as the region continues to develop and currently sports a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. More solar flares including another X-Flare will remain possible.[And today...]
Impulsive X8.1 Solar Flare
February 2, 2026 @ 00:10 UTC
An impulsive X8.1 solar flare was just detected peaking at 23:57 UTC (Feb 1). This is the second strongest flare in terms of peak X-Ray flux of the current solar cycle. Although a bright flare, new imagery suggests that if a CME is associated, it will likely be fairly mild. Stay tuned to SolarHam where you will get the most up to date and accurate information regarding this space weather event."#SolarFlares #SolarCycle25 #KesslerEffect #KesslerSyndrome #XClassFlares
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It's like #ElonMusk wants there to be a #KesslerEffect! Hard to launch a space program if we can't leave Earth!
#SpaceX seeks go-ahead from the #FCC to put up to a million #DataCenter satellites in orbit
by Alan Boyle on Jan 31, 2026
Excerpt: "SpaceX founder Elon Musk wasn’t kidding about his plans to go big with orbital data centers: The company is asking the Federal Communications Commission to approve a plan to put up to a million satellites in orbit to process data for artificial intelligence applications.
" 'Launching a constellation of a million satellites that operate as orbital data centers is a first step towards becoming a #Kardashev II-level civilization — one that can harness the sun’s full power — while supporting #AI-driven applications for billions of people today and ensuring humanity’s #multiplanetary future amongst the stars,' SpaceX said in an application filed with the FCC on Friday."
Read more:
https://www.geekwire.com/2026/spacex-fcc-million-data-center-satellites/#AISatellites #SkyNet #DarkSkies #Starlink #LowEarthOrbit #LEO #KesslerSyndrome #SolarFlares #Grounded
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@solarflarealert Isn't that the 2nd X-class flare today? Ruh roh is right!
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Record #SolarSuperstorm shrank Earth’s plasma shield 78%, #GPS at risk
Story by Alexander Clark, 12/1/2025
Excerpt: "Why this storm is a warning shot for the #SatelliteEconomy
"Even without a total collapse of the magnetosphere, the recent superstorm delivered a clear warning to the satellite industry. Constellations in low Earth orbit [#LEO], such as #SpaceX’s #Starlink or #OneWeb, already have to contend with atmospheric drag and radiation, but they usually operate well inside the magnetosphere’s protection. When the plasma shield shrinks, those satellites face a double challenge: increased drag from a heated upper atmosphere and a more hostile radiation environment that can degrade electronics and solar panels. The event that compressed Earth’s shield by nearly 80 percent effectively stress-tested the assumptions behind the rapid expansion of commercial space infrastructure, a point underscored in analyses of how a solar storm can threaten satellites when the magnetosphere is squeezed.
"For operators of navigation, communications, and Earth observation satellites in higher orbits, the implications are even more direct. Many of these spacecraft were designed based on historical records of geomagnetic storms that did not include such extreme compression of the magnetosphere, which means their shielding, redundancy, and fault management systems may not fully account for the conditions seen in this event. As I look at the trajectory of the satellite economy, with thousands of new platforms planned for launch in the coming years, the lesson is clear: space weather resilience can no longer be treated as a niche concern. It has to be built into hardware design, constellation architecture, and operational playbooks from the start, or the next superstorm could turn a profitable orbital network into a liability overnight.
"Preparing for the next superstorm in a crowded sky
"The recent compression of Earth’s plasma shield did not trigger the kind of global blackout or navigation collapse that worst-case scenarios envision, but it came close enough to expose the seams in current preparedness. Space weather forecasting has improved, yet the lead times and confidence levels are still limited, especially for the most extreme events. To protect GPS, power grids, and other critical systems, operators need not just alerts that a storm is coming but actionable guidance on how severe the magnetospheric compression is likely to be, which orbits will be most exposed, and how long the elevated risk will last, insights that depend on the kind of multi-satellite observations and modeling showcased in the reconstruction of this storm.
"As I weigh the evidence, the path forward looks less like a single technological fix and more like a layered strategy. That means hardening satellites and ground infrastructure against radiation and induced currents, building redundancy into navigation and timing systems so that GPS is not a single point of failure, and integrating space weather scenarios into everything from grid planning to aviation routing. It also means improving public communication so that when the next superstorm hits, people understand both the seriousness of a 78 percent shrinkage of Earth’s plasma shield and the practical steps being taken to manage the risk. The recent event was a vivid reminder that our digital civilization is built inside a magnetic cocoon that can flex and falter, and that planning for those moments is no longer optional."
#SolarSuperstorm #SolarFlares #Magnetosphere #MagnetosphericCompression #Satellites #SpaceIndustry #DarkSkies #SpaceJunk #InternetOutages #KesslerSyndrome #CarringtonEvent #SystemVulnerabilities #ConnectedGrids #TechDisruption #DisruptiveTechnology
#Landlines #TechVulnerability -
Even the sun is getting in on the #ExtremeWeather action! Yikes!
'The sun is slowly waking up': NASA warns that there may be more extreme #SpaceWeather for decades to come
NewsA new NASA study suggests that solar activity will remain high or rise further in the coming decades, contradicting previous assumptions that the sun was quieting down — and scientists "don't completely understand" why.
By Harry Baker, published September 17, 2025
"NASA scientists are warning that the sun may be "waking up" from a brief period of relative inactivity, contradicting past assumptions about our home star. If true, this could mean that decades of potentially dangerous space weather are in store.
[...]
"In a new study, published Sept. 8 in The Astrophysical Journal Letters, researchers analyzed multiple metrics of solar activity, including solar wind, magnetic field strength and sunspot numbers, and found that they have been on an upward trend since around 2008, and could rise further over future cycles, suggesting that the deep solar minimum theory is well and truly dead.
[...]
"During the current maximum, Earth has also been hit by several major geomagnetic storms, or disturbances to the planet's magnetic field. The most noteworthy was an 'extreme' event in May 2024, which triggered some of the most vibrant aurora displays in centuries and caused over $500 million in damages."
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X1.2 flare from Active Region 14086 - May 13, 2025
#EUVImaging #ExtremeUltravioletImaging #Heliophysics #PointSpreadFunction(PSF) #SolarActiveRegions #SolarCycle25 #SolarDynamicsObservatory #SolarFlares
⏩ 2 new pictures and 2 new videos from NASA (SVS) https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:ListFiles?limit=11&user=OptimusPrimeBot&ilshowall=1&offset=20250603125554
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X1.2 flare from Active Region 14086 - May 13, 2025
#EUVImaging #ExtremeUltravioletImaging #Heliophysics #PointSpreadFunction(PSF) #SolarActiveRegions #SolarCycle25 #SolarDynamicsObservatory #SolarFlares
⏩ 1 new picture and 1 new video from NASA (SVS) https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:ListFiles?limit=6&user=OptimusPrimeBot&ilshowall=1&offset=20250531125748
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#SpaceWeather news via #SolarHam
Near X-Flare
June 23, 2024 @ 14:50 UTC
"Is our old pal #AR3664 (3697 and now 3723) still active?"Of course it is. A near #XFlare (M9.3) was detected at 13:01 UTC (Jun 23). The flare itself was fairly rapid, so a coronal mass ejection (CME) is likely not associated. We will get a better at the returning flare champion over the next few days.
"Now back for the third time, AR 3664 (3697) is returning into view from off the farside of the Sun. This region was first assigned 3664 on May 1st and would go on to produce non stop X-Flares and the resulting eruptions were responsible for the extreme #geomagnetic storm on May 10-11. It would reappear again on May 28th and was reassigned AR 3697 and would produce additional major solar flares. What will it have in store for us this time around? Stay tuned to find out."
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No #GeomagneticStorm predicted yet. But with former #AR3664 (now #AR3697) belching out big flares, we might be in for another #Aurora treat soon...
#SpaceWeaherUpdate via #SolarHam
#XFlares Are Piling Up
June 1, 2024 @ 10:20 UTC"Good morning. How about another X-Flare!
"The latest event measuring X1.4 was just detected around AR 3697 (3664) at 08:48 UTC (Jun 1). Much like the X-Flare yesterday evening, a CME does not appear to be associated with this event. Some dimming was observed to the north of 3697 before this event, but coronagraph imagery does not seem to reveal any plasma leaving the Sun. The flare producing machine is now in a good location for potential Earth directed eruptions.
"And with this now being the 49th X-Flare of the current solar cycle, we have tied the X-Flare total from the previous solar cycle 24. When will #50 take place? Stay tuned to find out."
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#SpaceWeather update via #SolarHam
"So is old region #AR3664 still active? Of course it is!
"An X2.9 solar flare was observed around the returning region at 07:08 UTC (May 27, 2024). The event is also responsible for an energetic coronal mass ejection (#CME) now emerging in updated coronagraph imagery. Because the sunspot region is still located behind the east limb, the flare itself was likely stronger than the X2.9 measurement. The CME itself should be directed away from our planet. We may see some busy days ahead of us. Stay tuned!"
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Estimated X12 #SolarFlare from [presumed] #AR3664, which is on the far side of the Sun right now.
#CarringtonEvent was believed to be X45.
#AR3664 will be Earth-facing again soon.
"A fast moving, full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) is seen leaving the Sun this morning beginning around 05:30 UTC (May 20). Based on updated imagery, this event occurred on the farside of the Sun and is not Earth directed. Perhaps our old friend AR 3664 is up to its old tricks again. We should begin to see the big sunspot region turn back into view early next week."
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[May be behind a paywall] The Strongest #SolarStorm in 20 Years Did Little Damage, but Worse #SpaceWeather Is Coming
Years of careful planning helped safeguard against last weekend’s severe space weather, but we still don’t know how we’d cope with a monster event
By Jonathan O'Callaghan & Lee Billings
May 16, 2024"For years, we have been warned about impending doom from the sun. If pointed in our direction, powerful eruptions of radiation and plasma from our star can strike our planet to supercharge Earth’s atmosphere and magnetic field, effectively hitting a global 'reset' button on much of our #ModernTechnology. A sufficiently intense bombardment could raise a #Geomagneticstorm that would push satellites out of orbit, short out submarine cables that suture together the #Internet and plunge the world into darkness with massive #blackouts from collapsed #PowerGrids. Yet this past weekend, when one of the strongest solar outbursts in 20 years blasted our planet, we managed to emerge unscathed thanks to years of careful public and private planning.
"The storm has ebbed, although the solar region that sparked it has since spat out additional monstrous flares—fortunately no longer targeted at Earth because of the sun’s spin [which will change in a short time, as that spot will once again be Earth-facing]. But while we’ve passed our biggest test yet, experts say now is not the time to let down our guard: the question of more cataclysmic solar activity isn’t a matter of 'if' but 'when.'
"'This is a success story,' says Shawn Dahl, a space weather forecaster at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s [#NOAA] Space Weather Prediction Center (#SWPC) in Boulder, Colo., but the weekend’s storm was 'nowhere close' to the strength of more powerful known historical events. Is it time to put our feet up? 'Heck no,' he says.
"On May 8, after ground- and space-based telescopes detected multiple explosive outbursts from the sun headed for Earth, the SWPC issued a warning of an imminent severe space weather event. At least seven of these outbursts, known as coronal mass ejections, or #CMEs, walloped our planet with billions of tons of solar plasma—an interplanetary punch that left Earth’s magnetic field ringing and made the upper atmosphere swell, almost as if bruised. The resulting geomagnetic storm was the most severe since 2003. It posed potentially grave dangers to global infrastructure while also bathing much of the world in achingly beautiful #auroral displays.
"At present, it’s difficult to say just how close we came to catastrophe because many companies— from grid controllers to satellite operators—do not like to reveal information on how a geomagnetic storm affected them, says Daniel Welling, a climate and space scientist at the University of Michigan. "'They don’t want to look like they’re vulnerable,' he says. 'Satellite operators have to insure their spacecraft, and that can be very expensive.' Yet various scattered reports are already offering some insight into the storm’s disruptive effects. Flight trackers showed airlines rerouting planes to avoid Earth’s poles, where crews and passengers would have been exposed to worrisome spikes in #CosmicRadiation from the storm. Transpower, New Zealand’s state-owned enterprise running that nation’s electric power, said in a statement that it had preemptively 'switched off some circuits across the country on Saturday [May 11],' and as a result, there was 'no impact on New Zealand’s electricity supply.' In Minnesota, the firm Minnesota Power opened capacitor banks to deal with possible effects from the storm. Similar precautions were likely taken at other power grids around the world, too, although the lack of information makes it 'tremendously' difficult to know how effective those measures were, Welling says.
"Geomagnetic storms can also play havoc with signals from #GPS satellites, and multiple farmers reported issues with GPS-guided farming equipment over the weekend. In South Dakota, one farmer’s tractor started #DrivingInCircles during the storm, and multiple farmers reported outages on social media. 'Our GPS on both the planter and the strip tiller were absolutely bonkers today,' one commenter wrote on Reddit. 'I saw this post and looked ... no GPS,' said another. LandMark Implement, a John Deere dealership based in Nebraska and Kansas, texted its customers an advisory to 'turn off' GPS devices on their farming equipment. 'The base stations were sending out corrections that have been affected by the geomagnetic storm and were causing drastic shifts in the field,' the company noted in an online post. LandMark declined to comment further when contacted.
"The storm posed hazards in space as well. Seven astronauts on the International Space Station were mostly safe from the storm’s effects, #NASA said, but did have to take some precautions. 'The crew was told to avoid lower-shielded areas of the space station out of an abundance of caution,' says Sandra Jones, a spokesperson for NASA’s Johnson Space Center. 'Certain areas provide less protection from radiation, such as the air lock, while other areas, such as crew quarters, provide enhanced protection. The crew was never in any danger, and the energy levels have since decreased.' Other satellite operators experienced greater difficulties. One company in the U.K., Sen, which streams 4K video from a satellite in low-Earth orbit, chose to power down its spacecraft for four days to prevent any damage from the storm, such as fried circuit boards or electronic failures. 'It was in an idle mode,' says Marcin Bujar, spacecraft operations lead at Sen. 'We just kept the bare minimum on—the flight computer and radio receiver.' This prevented the satellite from carrying out some tasks, including planned observations of flooding in South America and wildfires in Canada. 'It definitely had an impact,' Bujar says."
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The latest #Spaceweather update from Spaceweather.com
"Because the sunspot is behind the edge of the solar disk, the flare was partially #eclipsed. It was probably even stronger than it appeared. 'X8.7' is almost certainly an underestimate of the flare's true strength.
"Extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a deep shortwave #RadioBlackout over the Americas. Ham radio operators, aviators and mariners may have noticed a sudden loss of signal at all frequencies below 30 MHz.
"Subatomic debris from this event might soon reach Earth, guided toward our planet by the #ParkerSpiral. Also, a #CME might be in the offing. Stay tuned for updates!
"EARTH IS CONNECTED TO SUNSPOT AR3664: Giant sunspot AR3664 is no longer facing Earth. That makes it extra dangerous. The #Carrington-class sunspot is passing over the sun's western limb--a region of the sun that is magnetically connected to our planet. Indeed, we are feeling the effects of that connection right now.
"What's causing this? Protons accelerated by solar flares in the magnetic canopy of #AR3664 are following the #ParkerSpiral back to Earth. Think of it as a magnetic superhighway. The arriving particles are funneled by our planet's magnetic field toward the poles where they ionize the atmosphere and interfere with the normal transmission of shortwave radio."
https://spaceweather.com/repeat_images/parkerspiral2.png
https://spaceweather.com/images2024/14may24/teal/20240514_165546_1024_0131.jpg
#SolarFlare #SpaceWx #AmateurRadio #SolarCycle25 #SolarFlares #Geomagneticstorm #HamRadio #Blackout
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#SolarHam #Spaceweather Update:
Largest #SolarFlare Of #SolarCycle25 Observed
May 14, 2024 @ 17:05 UTC (UPDATED)
"The largest solar flare of the current solar cycle 25, and largest since 2017 was just observed around deparing #AR3664 off the west limb. The #X8.7 event peaked at 16:51 UTC (May 14) causing a strong R3 level radio blackout directly over North America. More to follow.
"And Then...
"An eruption in the vicinity of newly assigned #AR3682 measuring M4.4 was observed at 17:38 UTC (May 14). This event looks to be eruptive, meaning a #CME will be produced.
"Solar Cycle 25 just kicked it up a notch!"
#AmateurRadio #CMEs #SolarFlares #ParkerSpiral? #XClassFlares #SpaceWx
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I just saw that there was an #XClass #SolarFlare (X8.79?). Not sure where it originated from. If it's #AR3664, we could be in for a #ParkerSpiral event. More soon...
#SolarCycle25 #SolarFlares -
#SolarHam summary of the #auroras
MAY The 3664th
May 13, 2024 @ 00:45 UTC
"I just want to say thank you for your support the past few days. I did not get much sleep as SolarHam is a one person operation, however the Extreme #GeomagneticStorm generated a record number of visitors to the website. I appreciate everybody who continues to follow SolarHam on both the main website and on social media. Hard to believe I have been doing this now for over 18 years!
"I would like to share with you an article I wrote detailing the extreme geomagnetic storm titled 'May the 3664th'. I compiled data and imagery, all in chronological order to show how the events unfolded. I also added a small fraction of the aurora imagery that was submitted so far. Thanks again!"
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So, even though #AR3664 is no longer #EarthFacing, we may not be out of the woods yet...
via #SpaceWeather . com
"CMEs emitted by the departing sunspot [#AR3664] are no longer flying toward Earth. At most only glancing blows are likely from eruptions on May 12th through 14th.
"The danger could return on May 15th, however. On that date the sunspot will pass through a region of the sun magnetically connected to Earth via the #ParkerSpiral. Subatomic debris (protons and electrons) from explosions on May 15th and 16th could spiral back to Earth and rain down our planet. This is called a 'radiation storm;' it can upset #satellite #electronics and cause polar #RadioBlackouts. "
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I guess the #NationalScienceFoundation must be one of those prepper cultists groups... Oh, and there's another potential active area (known as a #SolarPlage) about to become Earth-facing. I noticed that on the latest #SolarHam image. The plage will more than likely become #AR3673. Will it be as large and active as #AR3664?
Scientists Developed New Model to Predict #Sunspot and #Plage Coverage for #SolarCycle25
"#SolarFlares and coronal mass ejections (#CMEs) are eruptive events that impact #satellites, communication networks, electric power grids, and technological infrastructures."
https://nso.edu/blog/new-model-to-predict-sunspot-and-plage-coverage-for-solar-cycle-25/
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@QuadRadical So, basically, if you are able to call your phone in whatever you're using as a #FaradayCage, it's NOT going to be effective against #EMPs.
"Trefethen also points out that microwave ovens, despite their thick wires, are not perfect Faraday cages. That is because if you put your mobile phone – which communicates via microwaves – into an oven and call it, it will almost certainly ring."
#SolarFlare #SolarFlares #SolarCycle25 #CMEs #CannibalCME #CarringtonEvent
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@QuadRadical Here we go...
"There are some examples of Faraday cages that we use these days. Faraday cages can be quite complex or very simple, ranging from a shoebox to an entire building. Wrapping your phone in plastic and then wrapping it in aluminum foil, for example, creates a makeshift #FaradayCage."
https://askthehomegeek.com/is-a-microwave-a-faraday-cage/
#SolarFlare #SolarFlares #SolarCycle25 #CMEs #CannibalCME #CarringtonEvent
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@QuadRadical Hmmmm... That may not work... I'd say maybe wrapping stuff up in aluminum foil might provide more protection. Wrapping them in foil and put them in the microwave *might* work.
"A microwave is an electric oven that heats and cooks food by exposing it to microwave-frequency electromagnetic radiation. People use this to heat their foods quickly, and some are curious if microwaves can classify as an example of Faraday cages.
"This article will show you what a faraday cage is and if a microwave is considered a faraday cage.
Is a Microwave a #FaradayCage?
"Simply put, Faraday Cages disperse electrostatic charge around their perimeter. As a result, they act as a barrier to anything within them.
"In this regard, they are a hollow conductor in which the electromagnetic charge remains only on the cage’s external surface. But, as with many things, the reality is a little more complicated.
"Microwave ovens are another common application for Faraday Cages. However, unlike other applications, they are designed to reverse and keep the microwave radiation within the oven. You can see a portion of the cage on the microwave oven’s transparent window.
"Microwaves nowadays are not built and designed as a Faraday cage, but rather a 1/4 wave choke that effectively attenuates 2.4 GHz but not other frequencies.
However,
"A Faraday cage is from any material that conducts electricity. This cage could be wire mesh, metallic sheets, or wire coils. They can be any shape, such as a box, sphere, or cylinder, and any size, ranging from extremely small to extremely large.
"According to Florida State University, the cage’s exterior can be as simple as aluminum foil. The outer covering, or conductor, can be as thin as foil, but thickening it will provide additional protection from more powerful electric fields."
https://askthehomegeek.com/is-a-microwave-a-faraday-cage/
#SolarFlare #SolarFlares #SolarCycle25 #CarringtonEvent #CannibalCME
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I'm not sure what's going to happen, but I plan on making sure all my electronics are turned off and disconnected, and might put some of them in a makeshift #FaradayCage until after the #CMEs hit Earth. I'd like to think utilities and such will have learned from warnings from 2013, but then again, it's the human race we're talking about. Unless there's a buck to be made, we seem to be woefully unprepared for stuff that can happen -- unfortunately...
"If a massive CME were spotted, such 3-day forecasts give us some lead time: there are some measures #ElectricUtilities could take to protect their equipment, such as quickly disconnecting #transformers. Polar flights, which travel at the highest altitudes, could be rerouted to avoid contact with damaging solar particles, and some #satellites could be switched into a #SafeMode to minimize damage. Here on Earth, at the very least, we’d have some time to prepare for potential power #blackouts and other problems."
#SolarFlare #SolarFlares #SolarCycle25 #CannibalCME #CannibalCMEs #CarringtonEvent #CMEs
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#SpaceWeather update from Spaceweather.com
ARE WE ABOUT TO EXPERIENCE A NEW CARRINGTON EVENT?
"No. #AR3664 is indeed a '#Carrington-class' sunspot, but the #CMEs it hurled toward Earth over the past few days are not as potent as the monster CME of Sept. 1, 1859. NOAA says we might experience a severe geomagnetic storm when the CMEs arrive this weekend. If geomagnetic storms were hurricanes, 'severe' would be category 4. The Carrington Event was category 5 or greater. So this is no #CarringtonEvent. Even so, category 4 is pretty intense--if it happens.
"FIVE CMEs ARE HEADING FOR EARTH: Great sunspot AR3664 has hurled an astonishing five CMEs toward Earth.
"According to a NOAA forecast model, the first three CMEs could merge for form a 'Cannibal CME.' Cannibal CMEs form when fast-moving CMEs overtake and gobble up slower CMEs in front of them. Internal shock waves created by such CME collisions do an good job sparking geomagnetic storms when they strike Earth's magnetic field.
"The #CannibalCME is expected to arrive on May 11th. It alone could spark a strong (G3) #GeomagneticStorm. With two more CMEs following close behind, storm levels could become extreme (G4), sparking auroras at mid- to low-latitudes across Europe and the USA."
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Something wicked this way comes?
Even though #AR3664 is almost out of view, it looks like something big is about to take its place! Yikes! (I think the new area will be designated AR3673, but I'm not 100% certain of that).
https://www.solarham.com/aia131.htm
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#SpaceWeather update via #Solarham
X3.9 Solar Flare / Radiation Storm
May 10, 2024 @ 08:50 UTC (UPDATED)
"The largest #SolarFlare yet produced by #AR3664 was just observed at 06:54 UTC. This X3.9 blast is associated with a Type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 1248 km/s, along with a 10cm radio burst (TenFlare) measuring 900 SFU and lasting 16 minutes. A coronal mass ejection (CME) is now becoming visible and it appears the main bulk is heading to the west, but there will likely still be an Earth directed component. More to follow.
"Radiation Storm: The minor (S1) radiation storm threshold was reached at 13:35 UTC (May 10). This is possibly related to X3.9 flare this morning, or can also be due to a combination of all previous eruptions nearing Earth."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?si=I-yE941q5QHyl_rg&v=GRzeDwFzX1A&feature=youtu.be
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#SolarFlares, #Spaceweather via Spaceweather.com And there's a reason I held onto my eclipse glasses. Read on...
"THIS SUNSPOT IS HUGE: Sunspot #AR3664 has grown so large, it is now visually rivaling the great #Carrington sunspot of Sept. 1859. To illustrate their similarity, Carrington's famous sketch (to scale) has been added to a picture of today's sun:
"How big is AR3664? Sprawling almost 200,000 km from end to end, it is 15 times wider than Earth. You can see AR3664 through ordinary eclipse glasses with no magnification at all. Moreover, it is easy to project an image of this sunspot onto the sidewalk or a white screen just as Carrington did in the 19th century.
"Carrington's sunspot is famous because in August and Sept. 1859 it emitted a series of intense #SolarFlares and #CMEs. The resulting #geomagnetic storms set fire to telegraph offices and sparked auroras from Cuba to Hawaii. The '#CarringtonEvent' has since become a touchstone of space weather in pop culture, with headlines stoking fears of an "internet apocalypse" if it repeats. Recent studies suggest that Carrington-class storms occur once every 40 to 60 years, so we're overdue.
"Does this mean we're about to get hit by another Carrington Event? Probably not. Big sunspots don't always produce big CMEs. Indeed, the CME AR3664 hurled toward us earlier today is puny compared to the CMEs of 1859. It won't cause much trouble when it arrives this weekend. Nevertheless, it would be wise to keep an eye on this growing active region while Earth is in its strike zone."
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#SpaceWeather Update via #SolarHam
"Earth Directed Halo #CME / #RadiationStorm
March 23, 2024 @ 10:30 UTC
"LASCO coronagraph imagery is updated and shows a full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that is Earth directed. The main bulk of plasma seems to be heading north, however a noteworthy impact past our planet is likely within 72 hours and may trigger a geomagnetic storm once it arrives. Energetic particles did begin to reach our planet almost 3 hours after the flare event and a minor (S1) to moderate (S2) radiation storm is currently in progress."
#SolarFlares #SolarFlare #GeomagneticStorm #RadioBlackout #SolarCycle25
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The Perils of Mars: How a Crewed Mission to the Red Planet Could End in Disaster
#Accident #Astronauts #Communications #CosmicRadiation #DeepSpace #Earth #ElonMusk #Energy #Gravity #Launch #Life #Mars #Medicine #Microgravity #NASA #Navigation #Radiation #Rockets #Satellites #Science #ScienceFiction #SolarFlares #SpaceAgencies #SpaceExploration #Spacecraft #SpaceX #EarthAndOrbit #EditorSPicks #Mars #Moon #Noteworthy #PolicyLawAndRegulation #SocioEconomic #SpaceEconomy
https://newspaceeconomy.ca/2024/03/18/the-perils-of-mars-how-a-crewed-mission-to-the-red-planet-could-end-in-disaster/
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How Astronauts and Mission Control Handle Loss of Communications
#Astronauts #CosmicRadiation #Earth #HumanSpaceflight #Life #Mars #MissionControl #Moon #Radiation #Satellites #SolarFlares #SpaceExploration #SpaceWeather #Spacecraft #Technology #GroundSegment #SpaceEconomy #SpaceSegment #UserSegment
https://newspaceeconomy.ca/2024/02/15/how-astronauts-and-mission-control-handle-loss-of-communications/
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via Spaceweather.com
Sunday, July 30, 2023
"GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2): Geomagnetic storms are possible on Aug. 1st when a #CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. Minor G1-class storms are likely with a chance of escalating to category G2. The CME was hurled almost directly toward Earth by the eruption of a magnetic filament in the sun's northern hemisphere on July 28th. Aurora alerts: SMS Text
"#PROTONS ARE *STILL* HITTING EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE: For the second day in a row, energetic protons from the sun are raining down on Earth's atmosphere. This is called a "radiation storm" (S1-class), and it was caused by a magnificent eruption on July 28th.
"The blast site was hidden from view just behind the sun's northwestern limb. Earth-orbiting satellites registered an M4-class solar flare, but the underlying explosion was stronger. It was probably an X-flare partially eclipsed by the edge of the sun.
"How can a sunspot not facing Earth send so many protons in our direction? The answer is 'the #ParkerSpiral.' Take a look. As the sun spins, its magnetic field spirals like water flowing from a twirling lawn sprinkler. Lines of magnetic force emerging from behind the sun's northwestern limb (where the explosion happened) spiral back and make a direct connection to Earth. It's a superhighway for energetic protons.
"This #RadiationStorm looks like it will continue at S1 levels for at least one more day. Its main effect is a polar cap absorption event (PCA) inside the Arctic Circle. Right now, #shortwave radios around the north pole aren't working very well."