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#solarcycle25 — Public Fediverse posts

Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #solarcycle25, aggregated by home.social.

  1. #SolarFlares (Magnitude 2+) in the past 72hours (via #SolarHam)

    Flare Events (M2+) Past 72 Hours

    M5.2 AR 4366 2/2/26 @ 02:50 UTC
    X2.8 AR 4366 2/2/26 @ 00:36 UTC
    X8.1 AR 4366 2/1/26 @ 23:57 UTC
    M5.1 AR 4366 2/1/26 @ 16:07 UTC
    M5.8 AR 4366 2/1/26 @ 12:50 UTC
    X1.0 AR 4366 2/1/26 @ 12:33 UTC
    M6.7 AR 4366 2/1/26 @ 12:12 UTC
    M2.8 AR 4366 2/1/26 @ 10:13 UTC
    M6.6 AR 4366 2/1/26 @ 10:02 UTC

    Source:
    solarham.com/

    #SolarFlares #SolarCycle25 #AR4366

  2. My estimation (based on the position of #AR4366) is that it will be Earth-facing in 4-5 days...

    #SolarFlares #SolarCycle25 #XClassFlares

  3. From #SolarHam - Progression of new #Sunspot #AR4366 (not yet Earth-facing, but will be soon):

    "Sunspot Watch
    January 31, 2026 @ 04:15 UTC
    Newly assigned sunspot region 4366 continues to gradually develop as it turns into view in the northeast quadrant. It is currently producing minor C-Class flares and it is likely now a threat for a moderate M-Flare. Something to keep an eye on this weekend. Image by SDO/HMI.

    Growing Flare Threat
    January 31, 2026 @ 14:50 UTC
    AR 4366 continued to expand over the past 12 hours in both size and magnetic complexity. The region has a Beta-Delta magnetic configuration and is producing frequent mid level minor C-Flares. A moderate M-Flare will remain possible on Saturday.

    M6.6 Solar Flare
    February 1, 2026 @ 10:40 UTC
    Solar activity increases even further with an M6.6 solar flare peaking at 10:02 UTC (Feb 1). The source, AR 4366, is magnetically complex and is now a threat for an isolated X-Flare. Image below by SDO/AIA.

    High Solar Activity
    February 1, 2026 @ 16:50 UTC (UPDATED)
    What a difference a few days make on the Sun. Active sunspot region 4366 turned into a firecracker on Sunday with at least fifteen M-Class solar flares and one X-Flare (so far). Despite the brightness of these events, the mechanics have so far failed to launch any noteworthy coronal mass ejections into space and towards our planet. That could change over the next few days as the region continues to develop and currently sports a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. More solar flares including another X-Flare will remain possible.

    [And today...]

    Impulsive X8.1 Solar Flare
    February 2, 2026 @ 00:10 UTC
    An impulsive X8.1 solar flare was just detected peaking at 23:57 UTC (Feb 1). This is the second strongest flare in terms of peak X-Ray flux of the current solar cycle. Although a bright flare, new imagery suggests that if a CME is associated, it will likely be fairly mild. Stay tuned to SolarHam where you will get the most up to date and accurate information regarding this space weather event."

    solarham.com/

    #SolarFlares #SolarCycle25 #KesslerEffect #KesslerSyndrome #XClassFlares

  4. So, even though #AR3664 is no longer #EarthFacing, we may not be out of the woods yet...

    via #SpaceWeather . com

    "CMEs emitted by the departing sunspot [#AR3664] are no longer flying toward Earth. At most only glancing blows are likely from eruptions on May 12th through 14th.

    "The danger could return on May 15th, however. On that date the sunspot will pass through a region of the sun magnetically connected to Earth via the #ParkerSpiral. Subatomic debris (protons and electrons) from explosions on May 15th and 16th could spiral back to Earth and rain down our planet. This is called a 'radiation storm;' it can upset #satellite #electronics and cause polar #RadioBlackouts. "

    spaceweather.com/repeat_images

    #SolarCycle25 #RadiationStorm #SolarFlares #SolarFlare

  5. I'm not sure what's going to happen, but I plan on making sure all my electronics are turned off and disconnected, and might put some of them in a makeshift #FaradayCage until after the #CMEs hit Earth. I'd like to think utilities and such will have learned from warnings from 2013, but then again, it's the human race we're talking about. Unless there's a buck to be made, we seem to be woefully unprepared for stuff that can happen -- unfortunately...

    "If a massive CME were spotted, such 3-day forecasts give us some lead time: there are some measures #ElectricUtilities could take to protect their equipment, such as quickly disconnecting #transformers. Polar flights, which travel at the highest altitudes, could be rerouted to avoid contact with damaging solar particles, and some #satellites could be switched into a #SafeMode to minimize damage. Here on Earth, at the very least, we’d have some time to prepare for potential power #blackouts and other problems."

    smithsonianmag.com/science-nat

    #SolarFlare #SolarFlares #SolarCycle25 #CannibalCME #CannibalCMEs #CarringtonEvent #CMEs

  6. #SpaceWeather Update via #SolarHam

    "Earth Directed Halo #CME / #RadiationStorm

    March 23, 2024 @ 10:30 UTC

    "LASCO coronagraph imagery is updated and shows a full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that is Earth directed. The main bulk of plasma seems to be heading north, however a noteworthy impact past our planet is likely within 72 hours and may trigger a geomagnetic storm once it arrives. Energetic particles did begin to reach our planet almost 3 hours after the flare event and a minor (S1) to moderate (S2) radiation storm is currently in progress."

    solarham.net

    #SolarFlares #SolarFlare #GeomagneticStorm #RadioBlackout #SolarCycle25

  7. via Spaceweather.com

    Sunday, July 30, 2023

    "GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2): Geomagnetic storms are possible on Aug. 1st when a #CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. Minor G1-class storms are likely with a chance of escalating to category G2. The CME was hurled almost directly toward Earth by the eruption of a magnetic filament in the sun's northern hemisphere on July 28th. Aurora alerts: SMS Text

    "#PROTONS ARE *STILL* HITTING EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE: For the second day in a row, energetic protons from the sun are raining down on Earth's atmosphere. This is called a "radiation storm" (S1-class), and it was caused by a magnificent eruption on July 28th.

    "The blast site was hidden from view just behind the sun's northwestern limb. Earth-orbiting satellites registered an M4-class solar flare, but the underlying explosion was stronger. It was probably an X-flare partially eclipsed by the edge of the sun.

    "How can a sunspot not facing Earth send so many protons in our direction? The answer is 'the #ParkerSpiral.' Take a look. As the sun spins, its magnetic field spirals like water flowing from a twirling lawn sprinkler. Lines of magnetic force emerging from behind the sun's northwestern limb (where the explosion happened) spiral back and make a direct connection to Earth. It's a superhighway for energetic protons.

    "This #RadiationStorm looks like it will continue at S1 levels for at least one more day. Its main effect is a polar cap absorption event (PCA) inside the Arctic Circle. Right now, #shortwave radios around the north pole aren't working very well."

    spaceweather.com/repeat_images

    #Spaceweather #SolarFlares #solarcycle25