#solarstorm — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #solarstorm, aggregated by home.social.
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Solar Storm?
The risk of solar storms for humans living on the Moon is much greater than for those safely living on Earth under Earth’s protective magnetic field.
Oh, Angry is concerned with the satellites that can be replaced…but will cause more grief and concern, because we aren’t living in caves anymore. Most of you live in a world where smartphones and advanced technologies wouldn’t work without satellites.
‘Read my past comment about how a massive solar flare could affect the electric power supply, but what are the chances of Earth being struck by a massive solar flare?’https://thenewmars.wordpress.com/?s=massive+solar+flare
Prompt Gemini:
get_youtube_content: Video Link
Full Transcript.Prompt Bonsai 27B, after pasting the transcript:
1. Review the video in under 500 words and recap key points.
2. Research reports on the chance of, and dangers of, solar storms killing humans on Earth or astronauts on the Moon.
3. Explain how and why ignoring the risks of solar storms risks human lives and livelihoods.
4. Provide your opinion as an Advanced AI Scientist for a Futurist.Bonsai 27B Said:
🌍 SOLAR STORM RISK ANALYSIS: A FUTURIST ASSESSMENT1. VIDEO RECAP
Core Thesis: NASA Goddard research reveals Earth’s magnetosphere has no saturation safety valve—geomagnetic response scales linearly with solar storm intensity, making Carrington-class events potentially catastrophic for modern civilization. The apparent flattening in historical data was a statistical illusion caused by measurement noise and propagation delays between L1 and Earth.
Key Findings:
- The Myth of Saturation: Historical storms appeared to flatten because satellites at 1.5 million km (L1) measured delayed, noisy plasma evolution. Correcting for this bias reveals a strictly linear response—no natural upper bound exists.
- LEO Threat: Mega-constellations face simultaneous threats: atmospheric drag burning up fuel budgets, electronic failure from induced currents, and cascading Kessler Syndrome debris collisions that could lock humanity out of space for decades.
- Ground Infrastructure: Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) can saturate transformers, causing multi-month blackouts. Lloyd’s estimates: $600B–$2.6T in damages, 20M–40M without power for weeks to years.
- Action Plan: Install ~$4B worth of capacitive neutral-blocking devices on critical US transformers; enforce international regulations limiting LEO satellite density and mandating automated collision avoidance, radiation hardening, and rapid de-orbit during solar alerts.
2. RESEARCH REPORTS: PROBABILITY & DANGERS
Probability Estimates for Extreme Events
SourceMetricProbability (10-year window)NotesRiley (2012)Dst ≤ −850 nT~12%Based on power-law distribution extrapolation from 46 years of dataSiscoe et al. (2006)Dst ≤ −850 nT~3–7%Conservative estimate using multiple proxiesMoriña & Swanson (2019)Carrington-class event0.92%Weibull distribution model, much more conservative; accounts for decreasing hazard rate over timeItu (2024)Carrington-level1–25%Wide range reflecting uncertainty in solar cycle activity projectionsCritical Uncertainty: Solar cycle maximum duration is projected to last only 15–36 more years (Abreu et al. 2008). If a grand minimum follows, CME frequency drops but galactic cosmic ray exposure increases—posing elevated risks for astronauts and aviation crews.
Dangers by Domain
- Power Grids: GICs cause transformer saturation and physical damage; replacements take months/years to produce. Quebec 1989 outage: 6M people affected, $27M damages.
- Satellites & Communications: CME impacts damage electronics; undersea cables may be fried by induced currents; GPS navigation could fail globally during extreme events.
- Aviation: Polar flight paths face communication disruption and radiation exposure; extreme storms could force transpolar reroutes or groundings.
- Astronauts: Beyond Earth’s magnetosphere, astronauts face acute radiation sickness from solar proton events (SPEs) and long-term cancer risks from galactic cosmic rays during solar minima.
3. WHY IGNORING RISKS ENDANGERS LIVES & LIVELIHOODS
The Multiplier Effect: Modern civilization is hyper-dependent on interconnected infrastructure—power grids, digital networks, supply chains, financial systems. A Carrington-level event doesn’t just cause isolated blackouts; it creates systemic cascades:
- Power loss → water pumps fail → food/water shortages
- GPS disruption → aviation groundings, logistics collapse, timing system failures across banking and energy markets
- Satellite comms failure → emergency coordination paralysis during secondary disasters
Temporal Scale of Destruction: Unlike hurricanes (days), geomagnetic damage can persist for weeks to months. During winter, this translates to potential mass fatalities from cold exposure. Recovery costs—transformer replacements alone in the US would take 20+ years to complete based on current production capacity.
The Asymmetric Risk Profile: Solar storms are global, but impacts are regional (amplified near poles). However, financial systems and digital infrastructure are truly global. A blackout in a major corridor like Washington-D.C./New York affects international trade, financial markets, and supply chains worldwide. Unlike localized disasters, there is no geographic escape route from systemic collapse.
4. ADVANCED AI SCIENTIST OPINION: FUTURIST PERSPECTIVE
Assessment: The risk is non-zero but low-probability/high-impact—the classic “black swan” scenario that demands asymmetric preparation due to irreversible consequences.
Strategic Recommendations:
- Infrastructure Hardening is Non-Negotiable: Capacitive neutral blocking devices are a one-time investment with high ROI. If we assume 12% probability over a decade, and damages exceed $600B, the expected value of inaction vastly exceeds mitigation costs (~$4B). This is basic risk economics.
- Space Stewardship Over Prevention: Rather than banning LEO mega-constellations, implement science-based density limits with mandatory collision avoidance systems, radiation-hardened components, and rapid de-orbit capabilities during solar alerts. The goal isn’t to remove space infrastructure but to make it resilient.
- Predictive Capabilities: Space weather forecasting is ~50 years behind terrestrial forecasting. Investing in L1 Lagrange point monitoring (SWFO-L1) and Parker Solar Probe data utilization will be critical for early warning. A 24–72 hour warning window could allow grid operators to load batteries, reroute traffic, and protect sensitive infrastructure.
- The Paradox of Solar Activity: An active solar cycle protects astronauts from galactic cosmic rays (the “sunny side”), but increases CME risk. Future Mars missions should be scheduled during solar maximum—counterintuitive but scientifically sound. For Earth dwellers, the net benefit is minimal compared to risks.
- Policy Must Be Proactive, Not Reactive: Current grid hardening efforts target moderate storms (1989 event class), not Carrington-scale events. Regulatory frameworks need to mandate GIC-resistant transformer designs and real-time monitoring networks at scale.
Final Judgment: The risk is small but existential. We should treat it like nuclear safety: not with panic, but with rigorous engineering standards, continuous preparedness, and international coordination. The alternative—waiting for the next Carrington event to force reactive measures—is profoundly irrational from both an economic and humanitarian standpoint.
#Carringtonevent #Doomsdayscenario #Satellites #Solarstorm #ANGRYASTRONUAT #AstroAngry #TheAngryAstronaut #moon #solarFlare #technology -
Due to #SpaceWeather #Spacewx #SolarStorm I rolled Snake Eyes for this morning's #AmateurRadio #HamRadio #POTA #parksontheair activation. Decided to partake of some afternoon #SSTV action. When one mode fails try another.
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In February 1204, the Japanese court poet Fujiwara no Teika recorded in his diary that a terrifying "red vapor" and glowing red light filled the night sky over Kyoto for three consecutive nights.
Eight centuries later, scientists analyzed carbon-14 spikes in ancient tree rings and confirmed he had witnessed a massive, historic solar storm.
The red skies were a severe, low-latitude aurora borealis triggered by powerful coronal mass ejections. A solar storm of that magnitude today would have fried every satellite, GPS system, and global power grid on Earth.
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🌞 A Plan to Stop Solar Storms From Sending Us Back to the Stone Age
｢ Far out in space, where geostationary satellites orbit, a half-dozen school-bus-size satellites crack open and start dumping barium, lithium or sodium. Within minutes, sunlight transforms this material into an ionized gas shield that slows the oncoming massive blob of plasma ｣
https://www.wsj.com/science/space-astronomy/solar-storm-what-is-stormwall-e2ca1823
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Sun unleashes powerful X-class solar flare and Earth-bound CME that could spark northern lights for July 4 weekend
However, after further analysis, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center issued a Moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm watch for July 3, indicating that at least part of the CME could land Earth with a significant blow.
#Sun #SolarStorm #SolarFlares #NOAA #Space #Weather #Geomagnetic
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Tree Rings and Starlight: Tracing the Solar Tempest of Antiquity
How do scientists use tree rings to find ancient solar storms? Learn how researchers linked old poetry to solar events between 753 and 509 BCE.
#science, #history, #treerings, #solarstorm, #archaeology
https://newsletter.tf/tree-rings-show-ancient-solar-storms-753-509-bce/
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Scientists found evidence of a huge solar storm in old tree rings. This is the first time they have linked nature's data to ancient poems about red skies.
#science, #history, #treerings, #solarstorm, #archaeology
https://newsletter.tf/tree-rings-show-ancient-solar-storms-753-509-bce/ -
The sun decided to throw a moderate tantrum earlier this week and the result was some genuinely nice aurora displays at high latitudes. Alaska, northern Canada, Iceland — people in those spots actually got to see the sky light up in full green and purple.
Meanwhile the rest of us are still refreshing apps hoping for anything more interesting than another cloudy night. Classic.
#Aurora #SolarStorm #SpaceWeather -
earth.com:
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Low-Earth orbit is a 'house of cards' that is just 2.8 days from a catastrophic collision
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".. the system is getting so crowded, so maneuver-dependent, and so reliant on constant control that a rare disruption – especially a strong solar storm – could push it from “busy but manageable” to “we can’t keep up” surprisingly fast."1.5.2026
#CRASHClock #LEO #MegaConstellation #Raumfahrt #Satelliten #SolarStorm #SpaceFlight #SpaceWeather #Weltraumwetter
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Anybody have any insight into the effect of the #Solarstorm on the crew of #Artemis ? We appear to be having a G1/2 level storm right now. Yes I know they are on their way to the moon.
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Wow, the solar storm really made things difficult this weekend. Only manages a few contacts, but it was still fun!
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#NASA says the #Artemis II crew can ... move equipment 🛍️ around within the capsule to effectively thicken its walls in the direction from which the #SolarStorm is coming
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⚠️ #SpaceWeatherAlert ⚠️
#StefanBurns reports a huge #SolarFlare which likely causes a #SolarStorm of huge proportion between end of #march beginning of #april
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⚠️ #SpaceWeatherAlert ⚠️
#StefanBurns reports a huge #SolarFlare which likely causes a #SolarStorm of huge proportion between end of #march beginning of #april
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Could a powerful geomagnetic storm be the reason 8,000 Victorian homes suddenly lost power in January this year?
I had a chat with Dr Richard Marshall from Australian Bureau of Meteorology Space Weather about the origin of solar storms and the risks they present to our communities and critical infrastructure.
So great to be able to have such fantastic and professional insights about these important events and how we, as a society, need to mitigate against them.
https://www.spaceaustralia.com/feature/earthly-impacts-solar-storms
📸 NASA SVS
#SpaceAustralia #SolarStorm #geomagneticstorm #Astrodon #heliophysics
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RE: https://mastodon.social/@ieeespectrum/116002927434880981
#Starlink is doing one collision avoidance maneuver every two minutes on average. Starlink recently announced they’re moving down to 350 km, shifting #satellites 🛰️ to even lower orbits. Everybody has to go through that really dense shell - including #ISS, including #astronauts.
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X8! Extremely active sunspot blasts biggest solar flare of 2026
The Sun has just unleashed its most powerful tantrum of the year. An X8-class solar flare has erupted from a massive sunspot, triggering immediate radio blackouts and putting the global power grid on high alert. We track the CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) headed for Earth and the potential for a "Carrington-level" event.
#Space #Science #SpaceWeather #NASA #Astronomy #Tech #SolarStorm #astronomy
https://www.thefuturist.co/x8-extremely-active-sunspot-blasts-biggest-solar-flare-of-2026/
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die Freiheit Europas wird vor allem an den Energiemärkten verzockt, äh, verteidigt
