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#TropicalOutlook #SevereWeather #GulfofMexico

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92):
A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be only marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the middle portion of the week. This system is expected to drift east-northeastward over the next couple of days, before it turns northward. It is too early to determine the specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

@ai6yr @uccawx @AE4WX @DismalManorGang @firefly

#ChadCrilley #CAwx #Heatwave

From Meteorologist Chad Crilley on FB: (10/5/26) Monday FULL Forecast - Scorching Temperatures Continue, Relief is Finally in Sight

San Diego County is in the grips of a major heat wave that has brought record-breaking temperatures over the last several days. The relentless heat brought on by an area of high pressure bringing dry offshore winds to the area continues today, with high temperatures in the mid-90s at the beaches and triple digits inland.

An Extreme Heat Warning continues for San Diego County through Thursday, with little relief expected between now and then. Meantime, an Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for #ImperialCounty Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon. As high pressure expands before weakening, temperatures there may reach 105-107 degrees.

Meantime, dense fog is expected during the last day of our heat wave Thursday at the beaches during the morning. If you have lived in Southern California for a while, you know Santa Ana heat waves often end with very dense fog. This is because as the marine layer returns, it often starts off very shallow and close to the surface.

A Coastal Flood Advisory begins Wednesday as large swells return to our beaches. Minor coastal flooding and coastal erosion are possible.

By the weekend, a large area of low pressure will dig in from the north. This will finally put an abrupt end to the heat. There is a slim chance of showers Sunday and Monday, but the better chance of rain looks to stay across Arizona. Interestingly, this system looks cold enough to produce a few flurries across the San Bernardino County mountains; however, no snow accumulation is expected. #Socalwx #Imperialcountywx #Oceanside #Carlsbad #Sandiego #Brawley #Elcentro

@ai6yr @uccawx @cookiesinheaven

@stormchaser_bot #BillMartin #Heatwave @uccawx @ai6yr @cookiesinheaven

#TropicalOutlook #SevereWeather #GulfOfMexico

From North Carolina’s Weather Authority on FB: Tropical Update: All eyes will be on the Gulf this week. We are monitoring a developing low-pressure system in the Southwestern Gulf over the Bay of Campeche that has a growing potential to become a Tropical Depression or Storm over the next 5-7 days. This morning, the National Hurricane Center raised the odds of development to 70%. Environmental condtions are complex over the Gulf over the next few days and will not be a slam dunk, as considerable uncertainty remains.

A cold front over the Gulf Coast will enhance wind shear, which would favor a weaker system. However, this setup also favors shortwave troughs over that area at times, which would allow for lower wind shear, and the system could quickly get its act together over very warm Gulf waters. Models are all over the place, shocker; some get it's act together quickly and develop it into a Tropical Storm or even Hurricane by late week into the weekend before bringing it into parts of the Gulf Coast Saturday. Others are much weaker and manader it around in the Gulf with high wind shear (which tropical systems don't like).

The Bottom Line: There is significant uncertainty about the final outcome of this system, but folks interested along the Gulf Coast should monitor its progress over the coming days. Here in NC, some models try to bring leftover moisture/ cirlcation north Sunday into Monday. So we will keep an eye on it to see if we get a surge of moisture. There is no reason to stress about it, but the forecast for the weekend after Saturday will remain complex here and along the Gulf until we get a better handle on this system. Stay tuned!

-Ethan
@ai6yr @uccawx @AE4WX @DismalManorGang

#TropicalOutlook #SevereWeather #GulfOfMexico

Note: Here we go folks…

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Southwestern Gulf of America:
A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual
development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before
it turns northward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Kelly

@ai6yr @uccawx @DismalManorGang @AE4WX

#TropicalOutlook #SevereWeather #GulfOfMexico

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Southwestern Gulf of America:
A surface trough of low pressure has developed along the coast of
Mexico in the southwestern Gulf of America. Although environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive, gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression
could form by the second half of this week while it initially drifts eastward before turning northward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Papin

@ai6yr @uccawx @AE4WX @DismalManorGang

#TropicalOutlook #GulfofMexico #SevereWeather

From Chief Meteorologist Jamie Arnold on FB: EYE ON THE GULF - Odds of tropical development in the Gulf later this week continue to gradually increase. Models continue to hone in on this general area. Next name on the list is one we’re all too familiar with - ISAIAS.
FYI @ai6yr @uccawx @DismalManorGang

#VAwx #NCwx #WVwx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
719 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

AVN updated.

High POPs east of Blue Ridge for this morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cloudy cool Sunday with morning rain and drizzle along and east of Blue Ridge.

2) Dry conditions will return by Monday and last throughout the week. Patchy frost may occur early Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures warm for the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A cloudy cool Sunday with morning rain and drizzle along and east of Blue Ridge.

Cold front which moved through the region Saturday is still providing for abundant cloud cover and cool temperatures. A wave of low pressure is rippling northeast along the front resulting in rain and drizzle this morning for areas primarily along and east of the Blue Ridge. Models have this precip ending by noon with clouds lingering into tonight and then clearing Monday.

With the cool moist airmass in place do not expect much of a temperature rise today. May squeak out a 5 to 10 degree rise if rain exits the area as forecast...highs no warmer than the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions will return by Monday and last throughout the week. Patchy frost may occur early Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures warm for the second half of the week.

High pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes Monday then pass overhead Tuesday. Wind flow should become northwesterly Monday scouring the cool wedge east of the Blue Ridge. As the weather turns drier, dewpoints should drop into the 40s. Low temperatures for Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning may support some patchy frost in the mountain valleys. Locations such as the Greenbrier River Valley and Burkes Garden may see lows in the mid to upper 30s. The models maintain high pressure over the region for the remainder of the week. As the airmass modifies temperatures should moderate for the second half of the week.

Next opportunity for rain is Sunday and Monday Oct 11-12. NHC is currently monitoring a broad area of low pressure in the Southwest Gulf of America with increasing confidence this feature may develop into a cyclone in the next 7 days. The operational run of the GFS brings this feature north but confidence very low as to whether we will partake in any tropical moisture this far north latitude.

@DismalManorGang

#NCwx #SCwx #GAwx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
641 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Precip probabilities for this morning have decreased.

Aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Cloudy and much cooler today for most locations, with areas of mostly light rain/drizzle possible, mainly this afternoon and evening. 2. Near-normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected for much of the work week, with little chance for precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Cloudy and much cooler today for most locations, with areas of mostly light rain/drizzle possible, mainly this afternoon and evening.

The leading edge of a backdoor cold front has settled south of the CWA this morning, with in-situ cold air damming/notably cooler/more stable air having overtaken all but the upper Savannah Valley. Showers have largely vacated the scene as a result, taking any excessive rainfall threat along with them.

Cool/stable air will encompass virtually the entire CWA through tonight...locations across the Smokies and vicinity being a somewhat notable exception for this afternoon. Max temps are forecast to be almost 10 degrees below climo in most areas outside the mountains...more like 0-5 degrees below normal across the higher terrain. Conditions will remain very moist, with precipitable water values AOA 1.75" expected to linger through the day. A low amplitude trough and associated entrance region of an upper jet will approach the region this afternoon, resulting in some increase in upward vertical motion. However, low level flow/forcing is expected to remain weak as pressures fall within in situ cold air damming region, such that little to no isentropic lift is expected. If anything, the flow above the surface-based stable layer is more downslope/WNW through a good chunk of the day. While chances of rain/drizzle should ramp up to the solid chance/likely range this afternoon, especially across the southern half of the area, the combination of weak forcing and stable air should preclude redevelopment of an excessive rainfall threat. Thunderstorms are generally not expected, except for the potential for an isolated storm or two across the Smokies.

The rain and drizzle will gradually diminish tonight as the upper trough axis shifts east of the area and significant mid/upper level drying occurs. Lingering low level moisture within residual in situ cool pool beneath this drying aloft will yield some potential for (at least) locally dense fog late tonight/early Monday.

Key message 2: Near-normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected for much of the work week, with little chance for precipitation….

@czarbucks @AE4WX @amyedge

#NCwx

From North Carolina’s Weather Authority on FB: A changing day is ahead across the state. Happy Friday, North Carolina! We will see partly to mostly sunny skies across the state. Looking at the latest data, we will see a few scattered showers this morning, and then some more scattered this afternoon and evening.. Some areas will need new golf lessons.

@czarbucks @AE4WX @amyedge

#VAwx #NCwx #MDwx

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
634 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

MARINE

As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A stronger cold front crosses the waters Monday night into Tuesday with Small Craft Advisories possible.

1030mb high pressure is centered from ME to Atlantic Canada early this morning. Meanwhile, a stationary front lingers in vicinity of the SC and southern NC coast. The pressure gradient on the southern flank of the high has resulted in a 15-20kt E wind off the MD, DE, and NJ coasts, which as resulted in seas ranging from 3-4ft S to ~4ft N in the coastal waters and likely ~5ft in the offshore waters N of Parramore Island. Waves in the Ches. Bay are ~2ft. Weak low pressure develops along the stationary front today and pushes off the Outer Banks tonight. The wind will be light today, generally shifting from E/SE the first part of the day, to W/NW by later this aftn. A push of drier air arrives late tonight into Monday with a NNW wind increasing to 10-15kt over the Ches. Bay and ocean, and 8- 12kt elsewhere. Seas gradually subside tonight, and will primarily be 2-3ft by tonight and Monday. Waves in the Ches. Bay are expected to be 1-2ft today into tonight, and 2-3ft by Monday.

A stronger cold front is progged to cross the coast later Monday followed by a CAA surge Monday night into Tuesday. 04/00z models have continued to show a weaker trend with this post-frontal surge. Local wind probs for sustained 18kt are now 50% or less over the Ches. Bay Monday evening, and these values diminish late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Regardless, there will still likely be a period with a 15-20kt N/NNE wind for the Ches. Bay, lower James, and Currituck Sound given the cooler/drier air over warm water. Additionally, a N/NNE wind should increase to ~20kt over the southern coastal waters Monday night, with 4-5ft seas by later Monday night into early Tuesday. Wind/seas fall short of SCA criteria based on the 00z guidance. High pressure builds across the coast later Tuesday/Tuesday night and lingers through Thursday. A weaker cold front crosses the coast Thursday night, with high pressure returning Friday. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail later Tuesday through the end of the week.

A Moderate Rip Risk continues for the northern beaches today and all beaches on Monday. A Moderate (or potentially high) Rip Risk is forecast for the southern beaches on Tuesday.

FYI @DismalManorGang @jfk

#VAwx #NCwx #MDwx

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
634 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- PoPs and QPF trended downward today, but still a rainy day for most. - Updated Aviation discussion for 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cool and wet weather continues today. Gradually drying out tonight.

2) Seasonable temperatures and dry for the upcoming work week.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool and wet weather continues today. Gradually drying out tonight.

A frontal boundary is situated well S of the area this morning. A CAD airmass is in place with high pressure over New England. Locally, it`s a moist and (relatively) cool early morning. The coverage of rain has been lower than expected, perhaps owing to earlier convective activity well to our S. There is a batch of light- moderate rain currently moving through the Eastern Shore with drizzle or very light rain elsewhere.

Given observational and modeling trends, the coverage of rain later today also will probably be less than originally anticipated. A wave of low pressure will ride along the frontal boundary later this morning/early afternoon and do expect more widespread rain to develop across SE VA and especially NE NC during this time. CAMs also highlight another batch potentially moving through the Piedmont as well. With the lower coverage and intensity of the rain, QPF has also trended lower and additional totals today will be generally be in the 0.10-0.25" range, except 0.25-0.5" for far SE VA and NE NC. The coolest temps, mid to upper 60s, will be well inland today (in the core of the CAD airmass), with lower 70s near the coast. Rain tapers off by late this afternoon and evening as drier air begins to move in behind another cold front, though low-end PoPs remain in place across the SE through early tonight. Clouds will be slow to clear and mostly cloudy skies persist tonight, with low temperatures ranging from the mid-upper 50s W of I-95 and lower-mid 60s E of I-95.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonable temperatures and dry for the upcoming work week.

Cold advection will initially lag behind the secondary front on Monday. So, temps will actually be warmer than this weekend for most locations as the sun makes a reappearance. Highs should be in the 70s for all of our CWA, warmest W of the Chesapeake Bay. The more pronounced cooler and drier air arrives Monday evening into Monday night as ~1025 mb high pressure builds down toward the Mid-Atlantic from the Great Lakes region. Markedly cooler Monday night as lows dip into the 50s for SE VA/NE NC, with mid to upper 40s elsewhere. The cooler/dry theme continues into the midweek period as the high pressure system builds overhead. Tuesday should feel most like fall with highs struggling to reach 70 F. Similarly, Tuesday`s overnight lows will also be the coolest of the week. The current forecast has 40s for most of the area, though a light onshore wind near the coast likely keeps these areas in the 50s. Should also note that some upper 30s are not out of the realm of possibility, especially for rural and typically cooler locations in the Piedmont….

@DismalManorGang

#ChadCrilley #CAwx #SanDiegoCounty #HeatWave

From Meteorologist Chad Crilley on FB: 1:00 PM: Oh my! Temperatures are going nuts at the coast. In true Santa Ana form, temperatures are the hottest at the beach with widespread triple digits. I expect most beach locations to reach 105-107 degrees before the day is done. The record for this date downtown 104 set in 1987.

🔥🥵 #Socalwx #Sandiegowx

@ai6yr @uccawx @cookiesinheaven

#cyclosporiasis #TaylorFarms #Recall #lettuce

From ABC News.com: FDA finds potential source of cyclosporiasis outbreak linked to lettuce

https://abcnews.com/Health/fda-finds-potential-source-cyclosporiasis-outbreak-linked-lettuce/story?id=136958299

#EV #MotionSickness

From BBC.com: EV drivers love their cars, but some passengers feel sick - this could be why

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3y0zx822wlzo

#USPol #SCOTUS #ClimateChange #Wildfires #COPol

From WTOP.com: The Supreme Court will hear a major climate change case involving a devastating Colorado wildfire

https://wtop.com/national/2026/10/the-supreme-court-will-hear-a-major-climate-change-case-involving-a-devastating-colorado-wildfire/

#USPol #ArcDeTrump #Trumpisms #Military #Veterans

From WTOP.com: Veterans gather to protest triumphal arch near Arlington National Cemetery

https://wtop.com/local/2026/10/veterans-gather-to-protest-triumphal-arch-near-arlington-national-cemetary/