#wvwx — Public Fediverse posts
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
208 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Aviation section updated.
Confidence increasing for record-breaking heat Sunday through Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGES
Key Message 1: Relatively quiet weather for the rest of the week with some small chances of rain.
Key Message 2: Warming trend next week with abnormally hot temperatures.
DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Relatively quiet weather for the rest of the week with some small chances of rain.
Residual scattered showers may linger this morning for the western mountainous counties but the cold front is moving through and the bulk of the precipitation is out of the area. A surface high pressure system will follow with its center traveling southeastwardly into the Atlantic by the weekend. The new air mass will support relatively quiet and drier weather for the next few days.
Meanwhile, a large mid-level low in our vicinity will propagate to the northeast and lead to more zonal flow over the Mid-Atlantic. Some perturbations will swing by to provide additional chances for upslope based precipitation for this weekend. Given the drier air, serious lack of synoptic lift, and weak shear, these showers are expected to be limited in coverage and intensity. The zonal flow also means temperatures and dew points will start to recover with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s by Saturday.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
208 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Aviation section updated.
Confidence increasing for record-breaking heat Sunday through Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGES
Key Message 1: Relatively quiet weather for the rest of the week with some small chances of rain.
Key Message 2: Warming trend next week with abnormally hot temperatures.
DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Relatively quiet weather for the rest of the week with some small chances of rain.
Residual scattered showers may linger this morning for the western mountainous counties but the cold front is moving through and the bulk of the precipitation is out of the area. A surface high pressure system will follow with its center traveling southeastwardly into the Atlantic by the weekend. The new air mass will support relatively quiet and drier weather for the next few days.
Meanwhile, a large mid-level low in our vicinity will propagate to the northeast and lead to more zonal flow over the Mid-Atlantic. Some perturbations will swing by to provide additional chances for upslope based precipitation for this weekend. Given the drier air, serious lack of synoptic lift, and weak shear, these showers are expected to be limited in coverage and intensity. The zonal flow also means temperatures and dew points will start to recover with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s by Saturday.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
208 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Aviation section updated.
Confidence increasing for record-breaking heat Sunday through Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGES
Key Message 1: Relatively quiet weather for the rest of the week with some small chances of rain.
Key Message 2: Warming trend next week with abnormally hot temperatures.
DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Relatively quiet weather for the rest of the week with some small chances of rain.
Residual scattered showers may linger this morning for the western mountainous counties but the cold front is moving through and the bulk of the precipitation is out of the area. A surface high pressure system will follow with its center traveling southeastwardly into the Atlantic by the weekend. The new air mass will support relatively quiet and drier weather for the next few days.
Meanwhile, a large mid-level low in our vicinity will propagate to the northeast and lead to more zonal flow over the Mid-Atlantic. Some perturbations will swing by to provide additional chances for upslope based precipitation for this weekend. Given the drier air, serious lack of synoptic lift, and weak shear, these showers are expected to be limited in coverage and intensity. The zonal flow also means temperatures and dew points will start to recover with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s by Saturday.
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning to 7 pm - Frederick, northwestern Clarke, Winchester [VA], central Jefferson, southeastern Morgan, Berkeley, southeastern Hampshire [WV] - https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LWX&wwa=severe%20thunderstorm%20warning #VAwx #WVwx
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning to 7 pm - Frederick, northwestern Clarke, Winchester [VA], central Jefferson, southeastern Morgan, Berkeley, southeastern Hampshire [WV] - https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LWX&wwa=severe%20thunderstorm%20warning #VAwx #WVwx
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning to 7 pm - Frederick, northwestern Clarke, Winchester [VA], central Jefferson, southeastern Morgan, Berkeley, southeastern Hampshire [WV] - https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LWX&wwa=severe%20thunderstorm%20warning #VAwx #WVwx
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning to 7 pm - Frederick, northwestern Clarke, Winchester [VA], central Jefferson, southeastern Morgan, Berkeley, southeastern Hampshire [WV] - https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LWX&wwa=severe%20thunderstorm%20warning #VAwx #WVwx
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning to 5:45 pm - southwestern Allegany, central Garrett [MD], west central Mineral [WV] - https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LWX&wwa=severe%20thunderstorm%20warning #MDwx #WVwx
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning to 5:45 pm - southwestern Allegany, central Garrett [MD], west central Mineral [WV] - https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LWX&wwa=severe%20thunderstorm%20warning #MDwx #WVwx
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning to 5:45 pm - southwestern Allegany, central Garrett [MD], west central Mineral [WV] - https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LWX&wwa=severe%20thunderstorm%20warning #MDwx #WVwx
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning to 5:45 pm - southwestern Allegany, central Garrett [MD], west central Mineral [WV] - https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LWX&wwa=severe%20thunderstorm%20warning #MDwx #WVwx
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
220 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening along/west of the Blue Ridge in Virginia into West Virginia.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Rain showers and thunderstorms likely for Wednesday.
2. Mid-level disturbance offers another chance of rain for this weekend.
3. Warm and humid trend followed by a chance of rain by the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Rain showers and thunderstorms likely for Wednesday.
Rain and scattered thunderstorms are still likely for today (Wednesday) as a cold front pushes through. Recent CAM guidance suggests there may be more than one line of precipitation which will provide most of the region a good chance of rain. Rain amounts, however, will not be much as areas that are lucky to get more than once dose (most likely in WV and higher elevations) may receive only up to 0.25" of rain. The rain may arrive as early as 10AM for the WV counties. Dew points only in the 50s will prevent any serious instability with CAPE struggling to get above 750 J/kg. The mountains, other than the cold front, will be doing a lot of the heavy lifting with storm initiation. Still, lapse rates of around 6.5 C/km and bulk shear of 40-50 kts will promote the development of some storms capable of damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center recently introduced a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge for today due to this threat. The precipitation will likely be out of the area by midnight tonight.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
220 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening along/west of the Blue Ridge in Virginia into West Virginia.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Rain showers and thunderstorms likely for Wednesday.
2. Mid-level disturbance offers another chance of rain for this weekend.
3. Warm and humid trend followed by a chance of rain by the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Rain showers and thunderstorms likely for Wednesday.
Rain and scattered thunderstorms are still likely for today (Wednesday) as a cold front pushes through. Recent CAM guidance suggests there may be more than one line of precipitation which will provide most of the region a good chance of rain. Rain amounts, however, will not be much as areas that are lucky to get more than once dose (most likely in WV and higher elevations) may receive only up to 0.25" of rain. The rain may arrive as early as 10AM for the WV counties. Dew points only in the 50s will prevent any serious instability with CAPE struggling to get above 750 J/kg. The mountains, other than the cold front, will be doing a lot of the heavy lifting with storm initiation. Still, lapse rates of around 6.5 C/km and bulk shear of 40-50 kts will promote the development of some storms capable of damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center recently introduced a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge for today due to this threat. The precipitation will likely be out of the area by midnight tonight.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
220 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening along/west of the Blue Ridge in Virginia into West Virginia.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Rain showers and thunderstorms likely for Wednesday.
2. Mid-level disturbance offers another chance of rain for this weekend.
3. Warm and humid trend followed by a chance of rain by the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Rain showers and thunderstorms likely for Wednesday.
Rain and scattered thunderstorms are still likely for today (Wednesday) as a cold front pushes through. Recent CAM guidance suggests there may be more than one line of precipitation which will provide most of the region a good chance of rain. Rain amounts, however, will not be much as areas that are lucky to get more than once dose (most likely in WV and higher elevations) may receive only up to 0.25" of rain. The rain may arrive as early as 10AM for the WV counties. Dew points only in the 50s will prevent any serious instability with CAPE struggling to get above 750 J/kg. The mountains, other than the cold front, will be doing a lot of the heavy lifting with storm initiation. Still, lapse rates of around 6.5 C/km and bulk shear of 40-50 kts will promote the development of some storms capable of damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center recently introduced a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge for today due to this threat. The precipitation will likely be out of the area by midnight tonight.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
641 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Frost Advisory remains in effect for Greenbrier County in West Virginia, and for Bath County in Virginia for tonight into Tuesday morning.
Patchy dense fog in the Piedmont and river valleys through Tuesday morning.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Showers and storms Wednesday, some could be strong to severe. Afternoon showers/storms possible across the mountains over the weekend.
2. Below normal temperatures through Friday. Above normal temperatures, with near record temperatures, early next week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and storms Wednesday, some could be strong to severe. Afternoon showers/storms possible across the mountains over the weekend.
After a dry day on Tuesday, showers and some storms return to the forecast for Wednesday. A trough will dig southward over the Ohio Valley, and a surface low moves eastward into the Great Lakes, bringing a cold front through the Mid Atlantic. Modest moisture advection ahead of the front will bring dewpoints in the low 50s, up from the 30s and 40s, and temperatures will rise into the mid 60s to mid 70s. CAM guidance shows a fairly narrow zone where MUCAPE increases to around 500 J/kg along the front, limited by the lack of substantial moisture in the region, and anywhere from 30 to 50 knots of bulk shear again with the front. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms, with the greatest threat being damaging winds. Most of the convective activity will be during the afternoon hours, diminishing with the loss of daytime heating after sunset, but a few storms may linger into the night in the Piedmont and Southside.
High pressure moves into the area behind the front, bringing dry weather to end the work week. As the center of the high moves offshore by the weekend and some ridging starts to expand into the area, will see increasing warm air and moisture advection via the south to southwesterly flow. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase during the afternoons over the weekend, but will be mainly terrain driven across the mountains, with no strong forcing mechanism to prompt more organization to the storms.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ013-014-
016-017-032>034-043>045-058.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ020.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ004>006.
WV...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ507-508. -
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
641 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Frost Advisory remains in effect for Greenbrier County in West Virginia, and for Bath County in Virginia for tonight into Tuesday morning.
Patchy dense fog in the Piedmont and river valleys through Tuesday morning.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Showers and storms Wednesday, some could be strong to severe. Afternoon showers/storms possible across the mountains over the weekend.
2. Below normal temperatures through Friday. Above normal temperatures, with near record temperatures, early next week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and storms Wednesday, some could be strong to severe. Afternoon showers/storms possible across the mountains over the weekend.
After a dry day on Tuesday, showers and some storms return to the forecast for Wednesday. A trough will dig southward over the Ohio Valley, and a surface low moves eastward into the Great Lakes, bringing a cold front through the Mid Atlantic. Modest moisture advection ahead of the front will bring dewpoints in the low 50s, up from the 30s and 40s, and temperatures will rise into the mid 60s to mid 70s. CAM guidance shows a fairly narrow zone where MUCAPE increases to around 500 J/kg along the front, limited by the lack of substantial moisture in the region, and anywhere from 30 to 50 knots of bulk shear again with the front. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms, with the greatest threat being damaging winds. Most of the convective activity will be during the afternoon hours, diminishing with the loss of daytime heating after sunset, but a few storms may linger into the night in the Piedmont and Southside.
High pressure moves into the area behind the front, bringing dry weather to end the work week. As the center of the high moves offshore by the weekend and some ridging starts to expand into the area, will see increasing warm air and moisture advection via the south to southwesterly flow. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase during the afternoons over the weekend, but will be mainly terrain driven across the mountains, with no strong forcing mechanism to prompt more organization to the storms.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ013-014-
016-017-032>034-043>045-058.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ020.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ004>006.
WV...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ507-508. -
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
641 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Frost Advisory remains in effect for Greenbrier County in West Virginia, and for Bath County in Virginia for tonight into Tuesday morning.
Patchy dense fog in the Piedmont and river valleys through Tuesday morning.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Showers and storms Wednesday, some could be strong to severe. Afternoon showers/storms possible across the mountains over the weekend.
2. Below normal temperatures through Friday. Above normal temperatures, with near record temperatures, early next week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and storms Wednesday, some could be strong to severe. Afternoon showers/storms possible across the mountains over the weekend.
After a dry day on Tuesday, showers and some storms return to the forecast for Wednesday. A trough will dig southward over the Ohio Valley, and a surface low moves eastward into the Great Lakes, bringing a cold front through the Mid Atlantic. Modest moisture advection ahead of the front will bring dewpoints in the low 50s, up from the 30s and 40s, and temperatures will rise into the mid 60s to mid 70s. CAM guidance shows a fairly narrow zone where MUCAPE increases to around 500 J/kg along the front, limited by the lack of substantial moisture in the region, and anywhere from 30 to 50 knots of bulk shear again with the front. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms, with the greatest threat being damaging winds. Most of the convective activity will be during the afternoon hours, diminishing with the loss of daytime heating after sunset, but a few storms may linger into the night in the Piedmont and Southside.
High pressure moves into the area behind the front, bringing dry weather to end the work week. As the center of the high moves offshore by the weekend and some ridging starts to expand into the area, will see increasing warm air and moisture advection via the south to southwesterly flow. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase during the afternoons over the weekend, but will be mainly terrain driven across the mountains, with no strong forcing mechanism to prompt more organization to the storms.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ013-014-
016-017-032>034-043>045-058.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ020.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ004>006.
WV...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ507-508. -
Frost Advisory, Tue. 1 to 8 am - central/eastern Allegany [MD], Augusta, Rockingham, Shenandoah [VA], Hampshire, Morgan, Hardy, eastern Grant, eastern Mineral [WV] - https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LWX&wwa=frost%20advisory #MDwx #VAwx #WVwx
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Frost Advisory, Tue. 1 to 8 am - central/eastern Allegany [MD], Augusta, Rockingham, Shenandoah [VA], Hampshire, Morgan, Hardy, eastern Grant, eastern Mineral [WV] - https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LWX&wwa=frost%20advisory #MDwx #VAwx #WVwx
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Frost Advisory, Tue. 1 to 8 am - central/eastern Allegany [MD], Augusta, Rockingham, Shenandoah [VA], Hampshire, Morgan, Hardy, eastern Grant, eastern Mineral [WV] - https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LWX&wwa=frost%20advisory #MDwx #VAwx #WVwx
