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#VAwx #NCwx #WVwx @DismalManorGang
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
212 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Overnight aviation update.
Raised overnight temperatures due to increased mixing from breezy conditions.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected through midweek.
2) Late week system brings coldest air of the season along with upslope snow potential in the mountains.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected through midweek.
A surface high pressure over the Southern US along with a zonal upper-level flow will allow temperatures to climb over the next few days. The high slowly shifts eastward into the Atlantic by midweek, causing high temperatures to rise into the 60s/70s, which is around 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Clear skies and dry weather are also expected each day, with no rain chances through midweek. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s each morning. Enjoy the mild temperatures as a big change is in store for late week into this weekend as the first taste of winter arrives.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Late week system brings coldest air of the season along with upslope snow potential in the mountains.
A low pressure system develops across the Northern Great Plains midweek and moves into the Ohio Valley on Thursday. A deep upper-level trough will accompany the low as it moves into the Eastern CONUS. The system will bring a chance of rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic, though models have been inconsistent with location of the low and how much moisture will be available. Best rain chances will be west of the Blue Ridge, with lower confidence in rain coverage for the Piedmont.
The low redevelops near the East Coast on Friday, but again models differ in where this occurs and slightly differ on timing with some models keeping the low over the Northeastern US, while others take it out to sea quickly. The location will be important as to how much wraparound moisture is available for a northwest upslope snow event in the mountains as the upper- level trough moves over the area. Current thinking is that some upslope snow will be possible in the western mountains, but confidence is low in how much will fall and how far south snow could occur.
The bigger story for most of the area will be the colder air. Due to the upper-level trough, highs will be in the 40s/50s Friday and through the weekend. Overnight lows will not be too abnormal, but most of the mountains could see their first hard freeze of the year, with lows in the mid 20s. The Piedmont could see their first freeze of the year as well, with low 30s Sunday morning. Drier and more seasonable weather returns for early next week.
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Typical fall weather continues this week under sunny skies; watching the potential on Friday and Saturday for the first snow of the season for some areas like West Virginia, Maryland, maybe D.C., and southeast Pennsylvania (minor accumulations at this point since temperatures will be marginal). https://dmvweather.beehiiv.com/p/typical-fall-pattern-rolls-on #VAwx #MDwx #DCwx #WVwx
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#VAwx #NCwx #WVwx @DismalManorGang
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
551 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Morning aviation update.
Slightly raised overnight lows due to earlier cloud cover.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Dry and mild weather through midweek, next system to arrive on Thursday.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and mild weather through midweek, next system to arrive on Thursday.
Quiet weather will continue through the overnight, with some high clouds moving through the area. These clouds have slightly decreased outgoing radiation, keeping temperatures a few degrees warmer than previously forecast. Southeastern West Virginia continues to hang on to low clouds that are slowly dissipating and should be gone by sunrise. After a chilly start to the day later this morning, with lows in the 30s, skies will clear and a a beautiful fall day is in store, with highs in the low to mid 60s.
High pressure will continue to dominate the synoptic weather pattern for the next several days, keeping dry and mild weather in place for the Mid-Atlantic. As the high shifts east into the Atlantic for the early part of the week, high temperatures will rise to around 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year, in the 60s to low 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday.
The next chance of precipitation will arrive on Thursday, as a longwave upper-level trough and a surface low pressure system will develop across the Mississippi Valley midweek and track northeast into the Ohio River Valley on Thursday. Models have remained fairly consistent with the strength of the trough, encompassing most of the Eastern CONUS Friday into next weekend. The system will bring a chance of rainfall to the area, though models do differ in the amount of moisture that will be accompanying the system.
Once the front moves through, potentially the coldest air of the season so far moves into our area, as northwest flow takes over and the upper trough briefly stalls. Should this scenario occur, the western mountains could very well see the first snowflakes of the year. However, still being nearly a week out, details will likely change. A hard freeze will also be possible for a good chunk of the area, though the growing season has already ended.
