#ncwx — Public Fediverse posts

#NCwx #NWSRaleigh
Motorists are urged to use extra caution this morning, as areas of dense fog are expected until mid morning.

#NCwx #NWSRaleigh
Motorists are urged to use extra caution this morning, as areas of dense fog are expected until mid morning.

#NCwx #NWSRaleigh
Motorists are urged to use extra caution this morning, as areas of dense fog are expected until mid morning.

#NCwx #NWSRaleigh
Motorists are urged to use extra caution this morning, as areas of dense fog are expected until mid morning.

#NCwx #NWSRaleigh
Motorists are urged to use extra caution this morning, as areas of dense fog are expected until mid morning.

#NCwx #NWSRaleigh
Areas of dense fog are expected through mid morning over much of central NC. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible in the southwest this afternoon, and over north and northeast sections tonight.

#NCwx #NWSRaleigh
Areas of dense fog are expected through mid morning over much of central NC. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible in the southwest this afternoon, and over north and northeast sections tonight.

#NCwx #NWSRaleigh
Areas of dense fog are expected through mid morning over much of central NC. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible in the southwest this afternoon, and over north and northeast sections tonight.

#NCwx #NWSRaleigh
Areas of dense fog are expected through mid morning over much of central NC. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible in the southwest this afternoon, and over north and northeast sections tonight.

#NCwx #NWSRaleigh
Areas of dense fog are expected through mid morning over much of central NC. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible in the southwest this afternoon, and over north and northeast sections tonight.

#NWS #flood #nwsflashflood #FlashFloodWarning Flash Flood Warning for Bladen, NC; Columbus, NC #NCwx
At 1213 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated that shower and thunderstorm
activity has weakened across the warned area resulting in lower
rainfall rates. However, in addition to the 2 to 3 inches that has
already fallen, an additional 0.5 to 1 inch remain possible across
the warned area. In addition, water will continue to pool into
low-lying flood prone locations well after the heavy rain ends. As a
result the Flash Flood Warning will remain in effect until 215 PM
EDT.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Whiteville, Chadbourn, Lake Waccamaw, Sandyfield, Hallsboro,
Emerson, Elkton, Redbug, Council, Southeastern Community College,
Carvers, Kelly, Evergreen, Bolton, East Arcadia, and Cerro Gordo.

#NWS #flood #nwsflashflood #FlashFloodWarning Flash Flood Warning for Bladen, NC; Columbus, NC #NCwx
At 1213 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated that shower and thunderstorm
activity has weakened across the warned area resulting in lower
rainfall rates. However, in addition to the 2 to 3 inches that has
already fallen, an additional 0.5 to 1 inch remain possible across
the warned area. In addition, water will continue to pool into
low-lying flood prone locations well after the heavy rain ends. As a
result the Flash Flood Warning will remain in effect until 215 PM
EDT.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Whiteville, Chadbourn, Lake Waccamaw, Sandyfield, Hallsboro,
Emerson, Elkton, Redbug, Council, Southeastern Community College,
Carvers, Kelly, Evergreen, Bolton, East Arcadia, and Cerro Gordo.

#NWS #flood #nwsflashflood #FlashFloodWarning Flash Flood Warning for Bladen, NC; Columbus, NC #NCwx
At 1213 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated that shower and thunderstorm
activity has weakened across the warned area resulting in lower
rainfall rates. However, in addition to the 2 to 3 inches that has
already fallen, an additional 0.5 to 1 inch remain possible across
the warned area. In addition, water will continue to pool into
low-lying flood prone locations well after the heavy rain ends. As a
result the Flash Flood Warning will remain in effect until 215 PM
EDT.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Whiteville, Chadbourn, Lake Waccamaw, Sandyfield, Hallsboro,
Emerson, Elkton, Redbug, Council, Southeastern Community College,
Carvers, Kelly, Evergreen, Bolton, East Arcadia, and Cerro Gordo.

#NWS #flood #nwsflashflood #FlashFloodWarning Flash Flood Warning for Bladen, NC; Columbus, NC #NCwx
At 1213 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated that shower and thunderstorm
activity has weakened across the warned area resulting in lower
rainfall rates. However, in addition to the 2 to 3 inches that has
already fallen, an additional 0.5 to 1 inch remain possible across
the warned area. In addition, water will continue to pool into
low-lying flood prone locations well after the heavy rain ends. As a
result the Flash Flood Warning will remain in effect until 215 PM
EDT.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Whiteville, Chadbourn, Lake Waccamaw, Sandyfield, Hallsboro,
Emerson, Elkton, Redbug, Council, Southeastern Community College,
Carvers, Kelly, Evergreen, Bolton, East Arcadia, and Cerro Gordo.

#NWS #flood #nwsflashflood #FlashFloodWarning Flash Flood Warning for Bladen, NC; Columbus, NC #NCwx
FFWILM

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southern Bladen County in southeastern North Carolina...
Northern Columbus County in southeastern North Carolina...

* Until 215 PM EDT.

* At 1112 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated numerous showers and
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of
1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is
ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Whiteville, Chadbourn, Lake Waccamaw, Sandyfield, Hallsboro,
Emerson, Elkton, Redbug, Council, Southeastern Community College,
Carvers, Kelly, Evergreen, Bolton, East Arcadia, and Cerro Gordo.

#NWS #flood #nwsflashflood #FlashFloodWarning Flash Flood Warning for Bladen, NC; Columbus, NC #NCwx
FFWILM

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southern Bladen County in southeastern North Carolina...
Northern Columbus County in southeastern North Carolina...

* Until 215 PM EDT.

* At 1112 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated numerous showers and
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of
1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is
ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Whiteville, Chadbourn, Lake Waccamaw, Sandyfield, Hallsboro,
Emerson, Elkton, Redbug, Council, Southeastern Community College,
Carvers, Kelly, Evergreen, Bolton, East Arcadia, and Cerro Gordo.

#NWS #flood #nwsflashflood #FlashFloodWarning Flash Flood Warning for Bladen, NC; Columbus, NC #NCwx
FFWILM

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southern Bladen County in southeastern North Carolina...
Northern Columbus County in southeastern North Carolina...

* Until 215 PM EDT.

* At 1112 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated numerous showers and
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of
1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is
ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Whiteville, Chadbourn, Lake Waccamaw, Sandyfield, Hallsboro,
Emerson, Elkton, Redbug, Council, Southeastern Community College,
Carvers, Kelly, Evergreen, Bolton, East Arcadia, and Cerro Gordo.

#NWS #flood #nwsflashflood #FlashFloodWarning Flash Flood Warning for Bladen, NC; Columbus, NC #NCwx
FFWILM

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southern Bladen County in southeastern North Carolina...
Northern Columbus County in southeastern North Carolina...

* Until 215 PM EDT.

* At 1112 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated numerous showers and
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of
1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is
ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Whiteville, Chadbourn, Lake Waccamaw, Sandyfield, Hallsboro,
Emerson, Elkton, Redbug, Council, Southeastern Community College,
Carvers, Kelly, Evergreen, Bolton, East Arcadia, and Cerro Gordo.

National Weather Service, Wakefield, VA.

650 AM EDT, Saturday, July 25, 2026.

Shower/storm chances for Monday afternoon/evening have increased.

Key messages:

1) Widespread showers continue early this morning, then taper off later today. Rain lingers into this evening in the southeast.

2) Mainly dry with isolated late day showers/storms Sunday/Monday. Higher rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday.

#VAwx #NCwx

National Weather Service, Wakefield, VA.

650 AM EDT, Saturday, July 25, 2026.

Shower/storm chances for Monday afternoon/evening have increased.

Key messages:

1) Widespread showers continue early this morning, then taper off later today. Rain lingers into this evening in the southeast.

2) Mainly dry with isolated late day showers/storms Sunday/Monday. Higher rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday.

#VAwx #NCwx

National Weather Service, Wakefield, VA.

650 AM EDT, Saturday, July 25, 2026.

Shower/storm chances for Monday afternoon/evening have increased.

Key messages:

1) Widespread showers continue early this morning, then taper off later today. Rain lingers into this evening in the southeast.

2) Mainly dry with isolated late day showers/storms Sunday/Monday. Higher rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday.

#VAwx #NCwx

National Weather Service, Wakefield, VA.

650 AM EDT, Saturday, July 25, 2026.

Shower/storm chances for Monday afternoon/evening have increased.

Key messages:

1) Widespread showers continue early this morning, then taper off later today. Rain lingers into this evening in the southeast.

2) Mainly dry with isolated late day showers/storms Sunday/Monday. Higher rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday.

#VAwx #NCwx

National Weather Service, Wakefield, VA.

650 AM EDT, Saturday, July 25, 2026.

Shower/storm chances for Monday afternoon/evening have increased.

Key messages:

1) Widespread showers continue early this morning, then taper off later today. Rain lingers into this evening in the southeast.

2) Mainly dry with isolated late day showers/storms Sunday/Monday. Higher rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday.

#VAwx #NCwx

#NCwx #SCwx #GAwx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
255 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Shifted focus of the discussion toward the Sunday to Wednesday period when periodic chances for severe weather and heavy rainfall may develop.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Potential for at least localized excessive rainfall continues today near a stalled front. On Sunday the pattern changes such that the heavy rain potential decreases, but the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms increases and could be a daily concern through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Potential for at least localized excessive rainfall continues today near a stalled front. On Sunday the pattern changes such that the heavy rain potential decreases, but the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms increases and could be a daily concern through Wednesday.

We are still feeling the effects of a wedgelike pattern, in which a moist frontal boundary is basically stalled south of the CWA. Low stratus remains on the cool side of the front, with patchy drizzle and occasional light showers evident from surface obs, even though radar returns are weak. Water-vapor imagery shows a sharp shortwave axis just south of the Ohio River as of early Sat morning; weak vort ripples are evident ahead of it across the southern Apps and vicinity. While flow over the frontal boundary appears quite weak, there is enough upglide and slight elevated instability of a few hundred J/kg, to explain the few showers which have formed at times over or west of the CWA. CAMs have not been terribly consistent so confidence is limited in them, but generally have shown an uptick in QPF response in the predawn hours, so we retain decent PoPs early this morning--mainly just showers with only an outside chance of a thunderstorm.

The main shortwave axis will swing southeastward today, and is on track to pass the NW half of our CWA prior to peak heating. That should turn midlevel flow more NW`ly and promote some drying/scattering of the cloud deck, though it appears likely to take longer than originally anticipated. The delayed clearing and warming, plus the less than ideal timing of the better forcing associated with the wave, suggests the expected return of diurnally driven showers/storms into question, in particular because SBCAPE is lower than is typical for this time of year. We retain no better than about 30% PoPs this afternoon, for the idea of cells firing over the Escarpment and propagating east into the Piedmont. PWATs begin a gradual downward trend with the drying aloft, but remain higher than normal and any cells that form will have potential for torrential rainfall rates. The threat of flash flooding is arguably even lower than Friday with the steering flow less perpendicular to the front. The drying trend will continue tonight into early Sunday, as the front pushes farther south…

#NCwx #SCwx #GAwx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
255 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Shifted focus of the discussion toward the Sunday to Wednesday period when periodic chances for severe weather and heavy rainfall may develop.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Potential for at least localized excessive rainfall continues today near a stalled front. On Sunday the pattern changes such that the heavy rain potential decreases, but the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms increases and could be a daily concern through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Potential for at least localized excessive rainfall continues today near a stalled front. On Sunday the pattern changes such that the heavy rain potential decreases, but the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms increases and could be a daily concern through Wednesday.

We are still feeling the effects of a wedgelike pattern, in which a moist frontal boundary is basically stalled south of the CWA. Low stratus remains on the cool side of the front, with patchy drizzle and occasional light showers evident from surface obs, even though radar returns are weak. Water-vapor imagery shows a sharp shortwave axis just south of the Ohio River as of early Sat morning; weak vort ripples are evident ahead of it across the southern Apps and vicinity. While flow over the frontal boundary appears quite weak, there is enough upglide and slight elevated instability of a few hundred J/kg, to explain the few showers which have formed at times over or west of the CWA. CAMs have not been terribly consistent so confidence is limited in them, but generally have shown an uptick in QPF response in the predawn hours, so we retain decent PoPs early this morning--mainly just showers with only an outside chance of a thunderstorm.

The main shortwave axis will swing southeastward today, and is on track to pass the NW half of our CWA prior to peak heating. That should turn midlevel flow more NW`ly and promote some drying/scattering of the cloud deck, though it appears likely to take longer than originally anticipated. The delayed clearing and warming, plus the less than ideal timing of the better forcing associated with the wave, suggests the expected return of diurnally driven showers/storms into question, in particular because SBCAPE is lower than is typical for this time of year. We retain no better than about 30% PoPs this afternoon, for the idea of cells firing over the Escarpment and propagating east into the Piedmont. PWATs begin a gradual downward trend with the drying aloft, but remain higher than normal and any cells that form will have potential for torrential rainfall rates. The threat of flash flooding is arguably even lower than Friday with the steering flow less perpendicular to the front. The drying trend will continue tonight into early Sunday, as the front pushes farther south…

#NCwx #SCwx #GAwx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
255 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Shifted focus of the discussion toward the Sunday to Wednesday period when periodic chances for severe weather and heavy rainfall may develop.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Potential for at least localized excessive rainfall continues today near a stalled front. On Sunday the pattern changes such that the heavy rain potential decreases, but the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms increases and could be a daily concern through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Potential for at least localized excessive rainfall continues today near a stalled front. On Sunday the pattern changes such that the heavy rain potential decreases, but the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms increases and could be a daily concern through Wednesday.

We are still feeling the effects of a wedgelike pattern, in which a moist frontal boundary is basically stalled south of the CWA. Low stratus remains on the cool side of the front, with patchy drizzle and occasional light showers evident from surface obs, even though radar returns are weak. Water-vapor imagery shows a sharp shortwave axis just south of the Ohio River as of early Sat morning; weak vort ripples are evident ahead of it across the southern Apps and vicinity. While flow over the frontal boundary appears quite weak, there is enough upglide and slight elevated instability of a few hundred J/kg, to explain the few showers which have formed at times over or west of the CWA. CAMs have not been terribly consistent so confidence is limited in them, but generally have shown an uptick in QPF response in the predawn hours, so we retain decent PoPs early this morning--mainly just showers with only an outside chance of a thunderstorm.

The main shortwave axis will swing southeastward today, and is on track to pass the NW half of our CWA prior to peak heating. That should turn midlevel flow more NW`ly and promote some drying/scattering of the cloud deck, though it appears likely to take longer than originally anticipated. The delayed clearing and warming, plus the less than ideal timing of the better forcing associated with the wave, suggests the expected return of diurnally driven showers/storms into question, in particular because SBCAPE is lower than is typical for this time of year. We retain no better than about 30% PoPs this afternoon, for the idea of cells firing over the Escarpment and propagating east into the Piedmont. PWATs begin a gradual downward trend with the drying aloft, but remain higher than normal and any cells that form will have potential for torrential rainfall rates. The threat of flash flooding is arguably even lower than Friday with the steering flow less perpendicular to the front. The drying trend will continue tonight into early Sunday, as the front pushes farther south…

#NCwx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
625 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Forecast has trended slightly cooler today, and a bit wetter through the early afternoon. * Rain chances for Sunday have trended lower over much of the area.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 315 AM Saturday...

1) One more cloudy and fairly cool day today, with rain chances highest from early this morning through early afternoon.

2) By the end of the weekend, expect a return to more typical late July weather, with highs around 90 and mostly diurnally driven convection. Severe weather may be possible Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

As of 315 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... One more cloudy and fairly cool day today, with rain chances highest from early this morning through early afternoon.

Cold air damming conditions will persist over much of the area today. The surface frontal zone is analyzed to our S, across N AL/N GA, SC, and far SE NC, with a weak trough just W of the mountains from E TN up through E OH, and narrow and weak surface high pressure centered just off the Canadian Maritimes extending SW into central NC. The resulting light low level flow from the N and NE will ensure advection of lower dewpoints into our area today, keeping low level stability elevated. PW will remain high through midday, up to 125- 150% of normal, as a mid level shortwave trough moves in from the WNW. This combo of moisture and forcing for ascent should result in a blossoming of showers over much of the area, starting early this morning and lasting into early afternoon. (Thunderstorm chances are not zero but look to be low, given expected poor instability, and would likely be restricted to far S and SE areas.) The higher rain coverage should then shift into the Coastal Plain during the mid to late afternoon as the shortwave trough heads to our E and the backing low-mid level flow to northwesterly helps to dry out the column from NW to SE.

The signals for widespread heavy rain are not as profound for today as we`ve seen the last few days, given the more limited convective contribution to lift. But the high PW and deep LCL-0C layer do suggest a continued risk for locally soaking downpours, mainly from the Triangle to the S and E, and a few flood advisories may be needed, particularly in those areas that have seen higher rain totals the last few days.

Regarding temperatures, with a period of high rain chances and considerable cloud cover in the weakening CAD regime, highs will once again be below normal. Expect highs to range from the mid 70s NE to low 80s SW, 8 to 15 degrees below normal.

#NCwx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
625 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Forecast has trended slightly cooler today, and a bit wetter through the early afternoon. * Rain chances for Sunday have trended lower over much of the area.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 315 AM Saturday...

1) One more cloudy and fairly cool day today, with rain chances highest from early this morning through early afternoon.

2) By the end of the weekend, expect a return to more typical late July weather, with highs around 90 and mostly diurnally driven convection. Severe weather may be possible Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

As of 315 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... One more cloudy and fairly cool day today, with rain chances highest from early this morning through early afternoon.

Cold air damming conditions will persist over much of the area today. The surface frontal zone is analyzed to our S, across N AL/N GA, SC, and far SE NC, with a weak trough just W of the mountains from E TN up through E OH, and narrow and weak surface high pressure centered just off the Canadian Maritimes extending SW into central NC. The resulting light low level flow from the N and NE will ensure advection of lower dewpoints into our area today, keeping low level stability elevated. PW will remain high through midday, up to 125- 150% of normal, as a mid level shortwave trough moves in from the WNW. This combo of moisture and forcing for ascent should result in a blossoming of showers over much of the area, starting early this morning and lasting into early afternoon. (Thunderstorm chances are not zero but look to be low, given expected poor instability, and would likely be restricted to far S and SE areas.) The higher rain coverage should then shift into the Coastal Plain during the mid to late afternoon as the shortwave trough heads to our E and the backing low-mid level flow to northwesterly helps to dry out the column from NW to SE.

The signals for widespread heavy rain are not as profound for today as we`ve seen the last few days, given the more limited convective contribution to lift. But the high PW and deep LCL-0C layer do suggest a continued risk for locally soaking downpours, mainly from the Triangle to the S and E, and a few flood advisories may be needed, particularly in those areas that have seen higher rain totals the last few days.

Regarding temperatures, with a period of high rain chances and considerable cloud cover in the weakening CAD regime, highs will once again be below normal. Expect highs to range from the mid 70s NE to low 80s SW, 8 to 15 degrees below normal.

#NCwx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
625 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Forecast has trended slightly cooler today, and a bit wetter through the early afternoon. * Rain chances for Sunday have trended lower over much of the area.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 315 AM Saturday...

1) One more cloudy and fairly cool day today, with rain chances highest from early this morning through early afternoon.

2) By the end of the weekend, expect a return to more typical late July weather, with highs around 90 and mostly diurnally driven convection. Severe weather may be possible Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

As of 315 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... One more cloudy and fairly cool day today, with rain chances highest from early this morning through early afternoon.

Cold air damming conditions will persist over much of the area today. The surface frontal zone is analyzed to our S, across N AL/N GA, SC, and far SE NC, with a weak trough just W of the mountains from E TN up through E OH, and narrow and weak surface high pressure centered just off the Canadian Maritimes extending SW into central NC. The resulting light low level flow from the N and NE will ensure advection of lower dewpoints into our area today, keeping low level stability elevated. PW will remain high through midday, up to 125- 150% of normal, as a mid level shortwave trough moves in from the WNW. This combo of moisture and forcing for ascent should result in a blossoming of showers over much of the area, starting early this morning and lasting into early afternoon. (Thunderstorm chances are not zero but look to be low, given expected poor instability, and would likely be restricted to far S and SE areas.) The higher rain coverage should then shift into the Coastal Plain during the mid to late afternoon as the shortwave trough heads to our E and the backing low-mid level flow to northwesterly helps to dry out the column from NW to SE.

The signals for widespread heavy rain are not as profound for today as we`ve seen the last few days, given the more limited convective contribution to lift. But the high PW and deep LCL-0C layer do suggest a continued risk for locally soaking downpours, mainly from the Triangle to the S and E, and a few flood advisories may be needed, particularly in those areas that have seen higher rain totals the last few days.

Regarding temperatures, with a period of high rain chances and considerable cloud cover in the weakening CAD regime, highs will once again be below normal. Expect highs to range from the mid 70s NE to low 80s SW, 8 to 15 degrees below normal.

#VAwx #NCwx #WVwx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
357 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Aviation forecast has been updated.

No major changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cool high pressure will gradually diminish through the remainder of the weekend.

2) Thunderstorm activity will increase during the early half of the workweek another cold front approaches.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool high pressure will gradually diminish through the remainder of the weekend.

High pressure remains situated across the lower Mid-Atlantic this morning, with northeasterly winds drawing cool maritime air from the New England area. Radar imagery indicates pockets of light rain drifting east across the region as a weak disturbance exits toward the Atlantic coast. Further to the west, a large dome of high pressure continues to build over the Four Corners region of the southwestern United States.

For today, showers will decrease through the morning, with breaks of sunshine developing during the afternoon as the flow of cool maritime air begins to weaken. Regardless, the cool air will still hold for one more day, with highs ranging from the low 70s to the low 80s. This will help to strictly limit the development of any showers or storms for today, and no hazardous weather is forecasted.

The dome of high pressure across the Four Corners region will continue to build Sunday, causing windflow aloft to switch from the northwest. Will be watching for upper level disturbances riding around the dome to pass across the lower Mid-Atlantic, potentially triggering rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity. Latest weather forecast data hints at one such disturbance as early as Sunday evening across the mountains, though confidence is currently low as to when or where any associated thunderstorm activity will develop, if at all.

#VAwx #NCwx #WVwx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
357 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Aviation forecast has been updated.

No major changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cool high pressure will gradually diminish through the remainder of the weekend.

2) Thunderstorm activity will increase during the early half of the workweek another cold front approaches.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool high pressure will gradually diminish through the remainder of the weekend.

High pressure remains situated across the lower Mid-Atlantic this morning, with northeasterly winds drawing cool maritime air from the New England area. Radar imagery indicates pockets of light rain drifting east across the region as a weak disturbance exits toward the Atlantic coast. Further to the west, a large dome of high pressure continues to build over the Four Corners region of the southwestern United States.

For today, showers will decrease through the morning, with breaks of sunshine developing during the afternoon as the flow of cool maritime air begins to weaken. Regardless, the cool air will still hold for one more day, with highs ranging from the low 70s to the low 80s. This will help to strictly limit the development of any showers or storms for today, and no hazardous weather is forecasted.

The dome of high pressure across the Four Corners region will continue to build Sunday, causing windflow aloft to switch from the northwest. Will be watching for upper level disturbances riding around the dome to pass across the lower Mid-Atlantic, potentially triggering rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity. Latest weather forecast data hints at one such disturbance as early as Sunday evening across the mountains, though confidence is currently low as to when or where any associated thunderstorm activity will develop, if at all.

#VAwx #NCwx #WVwx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
357 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Aviation forecast has been updated.

No major changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cool high pressure will gradually diminish through the remainder of the weekend.

2) Thunderstorm activity will increase during the early half of the workweek another cold front approaches.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool high pressure will gradually diminish through the remainder of the weekend.

High pressure remains situated across the lower Mid-Atlantic this morning, with northeasterly winds drawing cool maritime air from the New England area. Radar imagery indicates pockets of light rain drifting east across the region as a weak disturbance exits toward the Atlantic coast. Further to the west, a large dome of high pressure continues to build over the Four Corners region of the southwestern United States.

For today, showers will decrease through the morning, with breaks of sunshine developing during the afternoon as the flow of cool maritime air begins to weaken. Regardless, the cool air will still hold for one more day, with highs ranging from the low 70s to the low 80s. This will help to strictly limit the development of any showers or storms for today, and no hazardous weather is forecasted.

The dome of high pressure across the Four Corners region will continue to build Sunday, causing windflow aloft to switch from the northwest. Will be watching for upper level disturbances riding around the dome to pass across the lower Mid-Atlantic, potentially triggering rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity. Latest weather forecast data hints at one such disturbance as early as Sunday evening across the mountains, though confidence is currently low as to when or where any associated thunderstorm activity will develop, if at all.

#VAwx #NCwx #MDwx

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
310 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Shower/storm chances for Monday afternoon/evening have trended up.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread showers continue early this morning then taper off later today; rain lingers into this evening in the southeast.

2) Mainly dry with just isolated late day showers/storms Sunday/Monday, with higher rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday; strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread showers continue early this morning then taper off later today; rain lingers into this evening in the southeast.

Overrunning moisture to the north of developing weak low pressure has brought showers to much of the area early this morning. Latest radar shows widespread rain, mostly light, along and east of the I- 95 with scattered showers elsewhere. There are some pockets of moderate rainfall which are mostly in SE VA and NE NC. Showers will continue across most of the area through the early morning hours. The UL trough over the east coast will slide offshore later this morning as sfc high pressure tries to move in from the NW. This will usher in drier air and limit most of the rain to the SE closer to the area of low pressure. Showers could potentially linger in the far southeast into the evening hours depending on when the low and the front it sits on finally get kicked offshore. Dry conditions are then expected overnight. Cooler temperatures continue today with highs around 80 along and north of I-64 and in the mid to upper 70s south.

MARINE

As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...

- Sub-advisory conditions are expected to prevail in onshore flow through the weekend.

- Another front approaches on Tuesday, which could bring a period of low-end SCAs with SW winds.

A frontal boundary remains stalled south of the area early this morning with ENE winds of 10-15 kt and 3-4 ft seas. ENE winds continue to average 10-15 kt over the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters today while decreasing to 5-10 kt north. A weak area of low pressure is forecast to form along the front and track offshore late today- tonight. Still watching the potential for a brief surge of 15-20 kt winds across the southern coastal waters from mid morning-midday. However, even if it does occur, not expecting it to last long enough for seas to reach 5 ft. Local wind probs only show a 20-40% chance of 18 kt winds over the ocean south of Cape Henry from roughly 7-11 AM. Winds diminish to 5-10 kt this evening before shifting to the NE then N and increasing back to 10-15 kt by sunrise Sunday morning as the low deepens well offshore. SCA conditions appear unlikely late tonight but will continue to monitor...

#VAwx #NCwx #MDwx

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
310 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Shower/storm chances for Monday afternoon/evening have trended up.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread showers continue early this morning then taper off later today; rain lingers into this evening in the southeast.

2) Mainly dry with just isolated late day showers/storms Sunday/Monday, with higher rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday; strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread showers continue early this morning then taper off later today; rain lingers into this evening in the southeast.

Overrunning moisture to the north of developing weak low pressure has brought showers to much of the area early this morning. Latest radar shows widespread rain, mostly light, along and east of the I- 95 with scattered showers elsewhere. There are some pockets of moderate rainfall which are mostly in SE VA and NE NC. Showers will continue across most of the area through the early morning hours. The UL trough over the east coast will slide offshore later this morning as sfc high pressure tries to move in from the NW. This will usher in drier air and limit most of the rain to the SE closer to the area of low pressure. Showers could potentially linger in the far southeast into the evening hours depending on when the low and the front it sits on finally get kicked offshore. Dry conditions are then expected overnight. Cooler temperatures continue today with highs around 80 along and north of I-64 and in the mid to upper 70s south.

MARINE

As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...

- Sub-advisory conditions are expected to prevail in onshore flow through the weekend.

- Another front approaches on Tuesday, which could bring a period of low-end SCAs with SW winds.

A frontal boundary remains stalled south of the area early this morning with ENE winds of 10-15 kt and 3-4 ft seas. ENE winds continue to average 10-15 kt over the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters today while decreasing to 5-10 kt north. A weak area of low pressure is forecast to form along the front and track offshore late today- tonight. Still watching the potential for a brief surge of 15-20 kt winds across the southern coastal waters from mid morning-midday. However, even if it does occur, not expecting it to last long enough for seas to reach 5 ft. Local wind probs only show a 20-40% chance of 18 kt winds over the ocean south of Cape Henry from roughly 7-11 AM. Winds diminish to 5-10 kt this evening before shifting to the NE then N and increasing back to 10-15 kt by sunrise Sunday morning as the low deepens well offshore. SCA conditions appear unlikely late tonight but will continue to monitor...

#VAwx #NCwx #MDwx

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
310 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Shower/storm chances for Monday afternoon/evening have trended up.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread showers continue early this morning then taper off later today; rain lingers into this evening in the southeast.

2) Mainly dry with just isolated late day showers/storms Sunday/Monday, with higher rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday; strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread showers continue early this morning then taper off later today; rain lingers into this evening in the southeast.

Overrunning moisture to the north of developing weak low pressure has brought showers to much of the area early this morning. Latest radar shows widespread rain, mostly light, along and east of the I- 95 with scattered showers elsewhere. There are some pockets of moderate rainfall which are mostly in SE VA and NE NC. Showers will continue across most of the area through the early morning hours. The UL trough over the east coast will slide offshore later this morning as sfc high pressure tries to move in from the NW. This will usher in drier air and limit most of the rain to the SE closer to the area of low pressure. Showers could potentially linger in the far southeast into the evening hours depending on when the low and the front it sits on finally get kicked offshore. Dry conditions are then expected overnight. Cooler temperatures continue today with highs around 80 along and north of I-64 and in the mid to upper 70s south.

MARINE

As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...

- Sub-advisory conditions are expected to prevail in onshore flow through the weekend.

- Another front approaches on Tuesday, which could bring a period of low-end SCAs with SW winds.

A frontal boundary remains stalled south of the area early this morning with ENE winds of 10-15 kt and 3-4 ft seas. ENE winds continue to average 10-15 kt over the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters today while decreasing to 5-10 kt north. A weak area of low pressure is forecast to form along the front and track offshore late today- tonight. Still watching the potential for a brief surge of 15-20 kt winds across the southern coastal waters from mid morning-midday. However, even if it does occur, not expecting it to last long enough for seas to reach 5 ft. Local wind probs only show a 20-40% chance of 18 kt winds over the ocean south of Cape Henry from roughly 7-11 AM. Winds diminish to 5-10 kt this evening before shifting to the NE then N and increasing back to 10-15 kt by sunrise Sunday morning as the low deepens well offshore. SCA conditions appear unlikely late tonight but will continue to monitor...

#NCwx #NWSRaleigh
Cloudy skies and continued below normal temperatures are expected today, with periods of rain. Brief downpours may lead to minor flooding in urban areas. A few storms are possible in the southeast.

#NCwx #NWSRaleigh
Cloudy skies and continued below normal temperatures are expected today, with periods of rain. Brief downpours may lead to minor flooding in urban areas. A few storms are possible in the southeast.

#NCwx #NWSRaleigh
Cloudy skies and continued below normal temperatures are expected today, with periods of rain. Brief downpours may lead to minor flooding in urban areas. A few storms are possible in the southeast.

#NCwx #NWSRaleigh
Cloudy skies and continued below normal temperatures are expected today, with periods of rain. Brief downpours may lead to minor flooding in urban areas. A few storms are possible in the southeast.

#NCwx #NWSRaleigh
Cloudy skies and continued below normal temperatures are expected today, with periods of rain. Brief downpours may lead to minor flooding in urban areas. A few storms are possible in the southeast.

#NCwx

From NC’s. Weather Authority on FB: A new day is ahead across the state; our weather will be busy today for some. Happy Saturday, North Carolina! The stalled front will remain in control of our weather, which will result in showers and even some thunderstorms this morning across the state. The coverage will become less numerous/scattered and much more isolated from west to east across the state through the afternoon and evening. Highs will still be cooler today in the 70s and 80s for most areas.

-Ethan

#NCwx

From NC’s. Weather Authority on FB: A new day is ahead across the state; our weather will be busy today for some. Happy Saturday, North Carolina! The stalled front will remain in control of our weather, which will result in showers and even some thunderstorms this morning across the state. The coverage will become less numerous/scattered and much more isolated from west to east across the state through the afternoon and evening. Highs will still be cooler today in the 70s and 80s for most areas.

-Ethan

#NCwx

From NC’s. Weather Authority on FB: A new day is ahead across the state; our weather will be busy today for some. Happy Saturday, North Carolina! The stalled front will remain in control of our weather, which will result in showers and even some thunderstorms this morning across the state. The coverage will become less numerous/scattered and much more isolated from west to east across the state through the afternoon and evening. Highs will still be cooler today in the 70s and 80s for most areas.

-Ethan

RT by @NWSAtlanta: RT by @NWSAtlanta: #WPC_MD 0841 affecting Northern/Central AL...Northern/Central GA...Western/ Southern SC...Far Southern NC..., #ncwx #scwx #gawx #tnwx #alwx, https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0841&yr=2026 https://x.com/NWSWPC/status/2080731011982209237

The cold front is feet wet but rain continues in the Carolinas Low Country. Flash flooding is possible. #VAwx #NCwx #FlashFlooding

The cold front is feet wet but rain continues in the Carolinas Low Country. Flash flooding is possible. #VAwx #NCwx #FlashFlooding

The cold front is feet wet but rain continues in the Carolinas Low Country. Flash flooding is possible. #VAwx #NCwx #FlashFlooding

The cold front is feet wet but rain continues in the Carolinas Low Country. Flash flooding is possible. #VAwx #NCwx #FlashFlooding

The cold front is feet wet but rain continues in the Carolinas Low Country. Flash flooding is possible. #VAwx #NCwx #FlashFlooding

#NCwx #SCwx #GAwx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
306 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Similar thinking for isolated excessive rainfall potential today, diminishing Saturday.

Revised details about possible convective complexes making a run at the area Monday or Tuesday nights.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Potential for at least localized excessive rainfall continues through Saturday. 2. A return to typical mid-summer weather begins Sunday and continues through at least Thursday, with hot temperatures and isolated diurnal convection expected.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Potential for at least localized excessive rainfall continues through Saturday.

A stationary front will remain south of the forecast area through Saturday, with at least weak southerly upglide continuing atop it. This front is situated near the base of a broad trough extending across the northeastern quadrant of the CONUS. PWATs in the frontal zone will remain at or above 2 inches through today along with at least a few hundred joules of MUCAPE for parcels elevated above the frontal inversion. SW`ly LLJ may fire a few showers/storms over the front this morning especially over the Lakelands and upper Savannah Valley. During the daytime hours, however, our area will not have the degree of instability today that was seen on Thursday owing to extensive stratus, and for at least part of the day we will be in a relative lull in upper forcing between embedded shortwaves. Hence convective coverage is expected to be a bit less than Thursday, with the heavy rain concern greatest in those areas nearest the front--in our southern CWA. CAM response is rather muted/noisy-looking during the day. However, steering flow aloft will remain westerly, quasi-parallel to the front, and this suggests any convection that does fire will be capable of exceptionally high rainfall rates. WPC maintains a Slight Risk over the southern half of the CWA. By late afternoon some more weak vort maxes will approach from the west and in turn some CAMs suggest convective development mainly during the evening. The excessive rain threat will be somewhat mitigated by the best coverage today appearing in our south which generally saw the least rain on Thursday. That is a reason why no Flood Watch is in effect for today.

The aforementioned weak vort lobes promote a deepening of the upper trough such that the 500mb pattern is more amplified for Saturday. Some drying does occur aloft which will shift the band of frontal moisture still further south. Weak downslope flow in low levels may help scour out clouds particularly in the NW CWA and in turn convection should reflect a somewhat more diurnal trend.