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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
212 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Overnight aviation update.

Raised overnight temperatures due to increased mixing from breezy conditions.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected through midweek.

2) Late week system brings coldest air of the season along with upslope snow potential in the mountains.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected through midweek.

A surface high pressure over the Southern US along with a zonal upper-level flow will allow temperatures to climb over the next few days. The high slowly shifts eastward into the Atlantic by midweek, causing high temperatures to rise into the 60s/70s, which is around 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Clear skies and dry weather are also expected each day, with no rain chances through midweek. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s each morning. Enjoy the mild temperatures as a big change is in store for late week into this weekend as the first taste of winter arrives.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Late week system brings coldest air of the season along with upslope snow potential in the mountains.

A low pressure system develops across the Northern Great Plains midweek and moves into the Ohio Valley on Thursday. A deep upper-level trough will accompany the low as it moves into the Eastern CONUS. The system will bring a chance of rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic, though models have been inconsistent with location of the low and how much moisture will be available. Best rain chances will be west of the Blue Ridge, with lower confidence in rain coverage for the Piedmont.

The low redevelops near the East Coast on Friday, but again models differ in where this occurs and slightly differ on timing with some models keeping the low over the Northeastern US, while others take it out to sea quickly. The location will be important as to how much wraparound moisture is available for a northwest upslope snow event in the mountains as the upper- level trough moves over the area. Current thinking is that some upslope snow will be possible in the western mountains, but confidence is low in how much will fall and how far south snow could occur.

The bigger story for most of the area will be the colder air. Due to the upper-level trough, highs will be in the 40s/50s Friday and through the weekend. Overnight lows will not be too abnormal, but most of the mountains could see their first hard freeze of the year, with lows in the mid 20s. The Piedmont could see their first freeze of the year as well, with low 30s Sunday morning. Drier and more seasonable weather returns for early next week.

#VAwx #NCwx #MDwx @DismalManorGang @jfk

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
326 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

MARINE

As of 320 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated winds continue today with W winds shifting to the NW. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal waters through late this afternoon and evening, and through this morning for the southern coastal waters and lower James River.

- Calmer marine conditions return tonight and continue through Thursday.

- Strong NW winds and elevated seas are possible by Friday into the weekend in the wake of a strong cold front, but confidence in details remains low.

High pressure is centered over the Deep South early this morning. Meanwhile, a cold front is pushing SE across central PA and northern VA. The wind is primarily W 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt ahead of the cold front, and potentially up to 20-25kt offshore. Seas are approximately 3-5ft in the coastal waters, and 5-6ft beyond 20nm. Waves in the Ches. Bay are 2-3ft. The cold front sweeps across the coast this morning with the wind becoming NW 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt for the Ches. Bay and northern coastal waters, and potentially up to 20-25kt with gusts to 30kt offshore of the MD coast. Seas remain 4-5ft in the northern coastal waters through this evening, subside to 3-4ft for the southern coastal waters, and generally 4- 6ft beyond 20nm, and locally 5-7ft beyond 20nm off the MD coast. Waves in the Ches. Bay will primarily be 2-3ft, but should build to 3-4ft in the middle Bay where the NW surge will be maximized today. SCAs remain in effect through this evening for the Ches. Bay and northern coastal waters. Meanwhile, SCAs for the southern coastal waters and lower James River are only in effect this morning.

High pressure builds into the region tonight through Wednesday, before moving offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. Sub-SCA conditions are expected during this timeframe. There is a secondary dry cold front that crosses the coast Tuesday night. A WSW wind increases to 10-15kt across the Ches. Bay and ocean ahead of this boundary Tuesday aftn and early evening, before becoming N behind the front later Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. High pressure becomes centered over the northern Delmarva Wednesday with the wind becoming light and variable across the northern tier of the marine area, and ENE 5-10kt across the southern tier of the area. The wind then becomes SE Wednesday night and S Thursday as the high moves offshore with speeds 10kt or less. Seas subside to 2-3ft nearshore and 3-4ft offshore by Tuesday, and then 2-3ft for most of the local Atlantic zones by midweek. Waves in the Ches. Bay will be 1 to occasionally 2ft Tuesday through midweek.

Low pressure and a strong cold front push across the coast and offshore Thursday night into Friday, with an extended period of CAA into the weekend. The 09/00z GFS primarily has an extended period of SCA conditions with a W to WNW wind, and the 09/00z GEFS ensemble members are largely following suit with only negligible probs for wind gusts at or above 34kt. However, the 09/00Z ECMWF and CMC have secondary low pressure deepening immediately off the coast Friday night and pushing offshore Saturday. The EPS members are following a similar pattern to the deterministic with ensemble probs for gusts at or above 34kt at 60-80% Friday night into Saturday. Confidence in details remains low. However, an extended period of SCA conditions is likely with a period of gale conditions possible. Seas potentially build to 5-7ft in the coastal waters and 7-9ft beyond 20nm.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ630-
650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ631-
632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ639.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ656-
658.

#VAwx #NCwx #MDwx @DismalManorGang

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
326 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated full discussion. No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Dry, seasonable, and pleasant through the middle of the week.

2) A strong cold front brings chances for rain Thursday-Friday, though rain amounts should remain on the lighter side. Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front.

DISCUSSION

As of 320 AM EST Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry, seasonable, and pleasant through the middle of the week.

A dry cold front is currently passing through the area this morning. The antecedent and post-frontal mid and upper levels are very dry, so there aren`t even any clouds along or behind the front. Despite the clear skies, a light SW wind is keeping the low-levels just mixed enough to prevent appreciable radiational cooling. Temperatures are generally in the upper 40s to around 50 F and morning lows should just be a few degrees cooler. Rural/sheltered locations could briefly dip into the upper 30s. For today, sunny skies and seasonable temperatures in the 60s are forecast. Breezy WNW winds are also expected in the well-mixed, post-frontal airmass, particularly in the late morning and early afternoon. Wind gusts up to 25 mph or so are possible and could approach 30 mph on the lower MD Eastern Shore. Low temperatures tonight likely drop in the 30s for most of the area, except in the 40s at the immediate coastline. There is some potential for a light freeze in rural interior VA (particularly near the NC/VA border). Frost is also possible in these areas and could eventually need a targeted Frost Advisory for areas still in the growing season.

Otherwise, a dry and pleasant stretch of weather is expected through the middle of this week as high pressure meanders south and southwest of the area. Modest height rises on Tuesday allow for high temperatures a degree or two warmer compared to today, generally in the upper 60s to around 70 F. Similarly mild on Wednesday with even some lower 70s creeping into the forecast across interior portions of eastern VA and NE NC. Expect a gradual increase in clouds late in the day Wednesday as upper- level moisture begins to overspread the area ahead of developing sfc low pressure in the Midwest. Overnight lows in the 30s inland and 40s near the coast Tuesday night and in the 40s area wide Wednesday night.

#VAwx #NCwx #WVwx @DismalManorGang

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
551 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Morning aviation update.

Slightly raised overnight lows due to earlier cloud cover.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and mild weather through midweek, next system to arrive on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and mild weather through midweek, next system to arrive on Thursday.

Quiet weather will continue through the overnight, with some high clouds moving through the area. These clouds have slightly decreased outgoing radiation, keeping temperatures a few degrees warmer than previously forecast. Southeastern West Virginia continues to hang on to low clouds that are slowly dissipating and should be gone by sunrise. After a chilly start to the day later this morning, with lows in the 30s, skies will clear and a a beautiful fall day is in store, with highs in the low to mid 60s.

High pressure will continue to dominate the synoptic weather pattern for the next several days, keeping dry and mild weather in place for the Mid-Atlantic. As the high shifts east into the Atlantic for the early part of the week, high temperatures will rise to around 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year, in the 60s to low 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

The next chance of precipitation will arrive on Thursday, as a longwave upper-level trough and a surface low pressure system will develop across the Mississippi Valley midweek and track northeast into the Ohio River Valley on Thursday. Models have remained fairly consistent with the strength of the trough, encompassing most of the Eastern CONUS Friday into next weekend. The system will bring a chance of rainfall to the area, though models do differ in the amount of moisture that will be accompanying the system.

Once the front moves through, potentially the coldest air of the season so far moves into our area, as northwest flow takes over and the upper trough briefly stalls. Should this scenario occur, the western mountains could very well see the first snowflakes of the year. However, still being nearly a week out, details will likely change. A hard freeze will also be possible for a good chunk of the area, though the growing season has already ended.

#VAwx #NCwx #MDwx @DismalManorGang @jfk

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
328 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

MARINE

As of 330 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated winds continue through Monday with NW winds today shifting to the SW tonight and then WNW Monday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through most of the morning, with additional advisories likely tonight and Monday.

- Calmer marine conditions return to the waters beyond Monday and continue through most of the upcoming week. Degraded winds and seas/waves are possible by Friday into weekend as low pressure approaches the area, but confidence in details is low.

Small Craft Advisories continue for the Chesapeake Bay and nearshore coastal waters through 10 AM this morning. As of the early morning hours, winds are averaging 15-25 kt, highest in the eastern half of the bay and just offshore in the ocean waters. Frequent gusts to 25 kt are expected to continue over the next few hours and cannot rule out of few gusts to 30 knots north of Windmill Point. Winds are forecast to diminish and shift to the W and then SW this afternoon. By late this evening and tonight, a dry cold front quickly approaches from the W. SW winds increase to 15-20 kt for a ~6 hr period after midnight for the Chesapeake Bay, coastal waters, and lower James River. 18 kt sustained wind probs are very high (>80%), with the higher 25 kt gust probs confined to the coastal waters. Regardless, another round of SCAs seem likely tonight. The wind direction becomes W/WNW behind the frontal passage around sunrise Monday morning, with speeds then increasing again to 15-20 kt as cold advection overspreads the waters. It is likely that a longer- period SCA will be needed to cover both the SW flow period tonight and then the NW/WNW flow period Monday. Seas likely hover between 3- 5 ft through early Monday night, though they may briefly diminish some this afternoon. 6-7 ft seas are possible beyond 20 nm Monday. Waves in the bay will generally be 2-3 ft through Monday.

Winds should finally decrease and remain below SCA criteria from Monday night through most of the upcoming week. The current forecast shows SW ~10 kt winds Tuesday, light and variable winds Wednesday, and ~10 kt E winds Thursday as low pressure develops near the eastern Great Lakes. Seas also average 2-3 ft Tuesday through Thursday. There is increased uncertainty regarding both the wind and sea/wave forecast Friday into the weekend as the aforementioned low pressure system potentially approaches the region.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.

#VAwx #NCwx #MDwx @DismalManorGang

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
328 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and seasonably cool the remainder of the weekend through the middle of the week.

2) The weather pattern becomes more amplified later next week with low-end rain chances returning later Thursday/Thursday night followed by a brief surge of colder air with below average temperatures into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 330 AM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonably cool the remainder of the weekend through the middle of the week.

GOES water vapor channels depict zonal flow across the Mid- Atlantic between a trough departing to the NE over New England and another trough diving to the the upper Midwest. At the surface, a broad area of 1024mb high pressure is centered over AR and extends eastward into the southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Mostly clear early this morning with some thin cirrus spreading across southern VA and NE NC. Temperatures are generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s inland, with mid 40s to lower 50s toward and along the coast.

Surface high pressure settles S today with a lee-side trough developing in advance of an upper trough swinging across the Great Lakes. This will allow the low-level flow to become SW by this afternoon under a sunny sky with high temperatures rising into the mid 60s inland, with highs closer to the coast generally around 60F or in the lower 60s. By tonight, the trough pushes toward New England with a dry cold front approaching from the N. Not as cool tonight with lows generally in the lower/mid 40s, with some upper 30s in the Piedmont.

The dry cold front pushes across the area Monday. Becoming breezy behind the front with a NW wind of 10-15 mph with gusts to ~20 mph for most of the area, and 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph over the Eastern Shore. High pressure rebuilds across the region Monday night into Tuesday, before sliding offshore Wednesday. High temperatures Monday range from around 60F at the coast to the mid 60s inland, and then mid 60s to around 70F Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows Monday night/early Tuesday morning range from the mid to upper 30s inland to the lower/mid 40s at the coast. Patchy frost is possible inland, but it is worth noting that the legacy MOS guidance is a few degrees higher with overnight lows than the NBM. Not as cool but still seasonal Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s (mid/upper 40s at the coast). Dry weather continues through Wednesday.