#ncwx — Public Fediverse posts

#NWS #flood #nwsflashflood #FlashFloodWarning Flash Flood Warning for Bladen, NC; Columbus, NC #NCwx
At 1213 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated that shower and thunderstorm
activity has weakened across the warned area resulting in lower
rainfall rates. However, in addition to the 2 to 3 inches that has
already fallen, an additional 0.5 to 1 inch remain possible across
the warned area. In addition, water will continue to pool into
low-lying flood prone locations well after the heavy rain ends. As a
result the Flash Flood Warning will remain in effect until 215 PM
EDT.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Whiteville, Chadbourn, Lake Waccamaw, Sandyfield, Hallsboro,
Emerson, Elkton, Redbug, Council, Southeastern Community College,
Carvers, Kelly, Evergreen, Bolton, East Arcadia, and Cerro Gordo.

#NWS #flood #nwsflashflood #FlashFloodWarning Flash Flood Warning for Bladen, NC; Columbus, NC #NCwx
FFWILM

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southern Bladen County in southeastern North Carolina...
Northern Columbus County in southeastern North Carolina...

* Until 215 PM EDT.

* At 1112 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated numerous showers and
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of
1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is
ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Whiteville, Chadbourn, Lake Waccamaw, Sandyfield, Hallsboro,
Emerson, Elkton, Redbug, Council, Southeastern Community College,
Carvers, Kelly, Evergreen, Bolton, East Arcadia, and Cerro Gordo.

RT by @NWSAtlanta: RT by @NWSAtlanta: #WPC_MD 0841 affecting Northern/Central AL...Northern/Central GA...Western/ Southern SC...Far Southern NC..., #ncwx #scwx #gawx #tnwx #alwx, https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0841&yr=2026 https://x.com/NWSWPC/status/2080731011982209237

The cold front is feet wet but rain continues in the Carolinas Low Country. Flash flooding is possible. #VAwx #NCwx #FlashFlooding

The cold front is feet wet but rain continues in the Carolinas Low Country. Flash flooding is possible. #VAwx #NCwx #FlashFlooding

It's now 66F at our back steps. 🤣 #wx #NCwx #DurhamNC

It's now 66F at our back steps. 🤣 #wx #NCwx #DurhamNC

It's now 66F at our back steps. 🤣 #wx #NCwx #DurhamNC

It's now 66F at our back steps. 🤣 #wx #NCwx #DurhamNC

It's now 66F at our back steps. 🤣 #wx #NCwx #DurhamNC

Sorry about the Xitter link, but I don't see this in the @nwsraleigh_bot feed, so:

https://x.com/NWSRaleigh/status/2080211785898922014

#wx #rain #NCwx #drought

Sorry about the Xitter link, but I don't see this in the @nwsraleigh_bot feed, so:

https://x.com/NWSRaleigh/status/2080211785898922014

#wx #rain #NCwx #drought

#NWS #flood #nwsflashflood #FlashFloodWarning Flash Flood Warning for Graham, NC; Swain, NC #NCwx
FFWGSP

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northern Graham County in western North Carolina...
West Central Swain County in western North Carolina...

* Until 1115 AM EDT.

* At 821 AM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
3 and 5 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly. Be especially cautious for developing
flooding from Fontana Village to Tapoco.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Robbinsville, Town Of Santeetlah, Fontana Village, Lake Santeetlah,
Smoky Mountains-Twentymile Creek, Fontana Lake, Smoky
Mountains-Fontana Area, Tapoco, Deals Gap, Cheoah and Stecoah.

#NWS #flood #nwsflashflood #FlashFloodWarning Flash Flood Warning for Franklin, NC; Granville, NC; Wake, NC #NCwx
FFWRAH

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Franklin County in central North Carolina...
Southeastern Granville County in central North Carolina...
Wake County in central North Carolina...

* Until 1015 AM EDT.

* At 718 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 2 inches of rain have
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 2 inches are possible in
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by showers and thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Raleigh, Cary, Louisburg, Wake Forest, Garner, Zebulon,
Franklinton, Bunn, RDU International, Apex, Morrisville,
Knightdale, Wendell, Rolesville, Youngsville, Purnell, Falls Lake
Boat Ramp, Falls Lake State Rec Area, Falls Lake and Pilot.

#NWS #flood #nwsflashflood #FlashFloodWarning Flash Flood Warning for Alamance, NC; Chatham, NC; Durham, NC; Granville, NC; Orange, NC #NCwx
FFWRAH

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Alamance County in central North Carolina...
Northern Chatham County in central North Carolina...
Durham County in central North Carolina...
Southern Granville County in central North Carolina...
Orange County in central North Carolina...

* Until 1100 AM EDT.

* At 653 AM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicate
showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain will continue to
move across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain has
already fallen over much of the area with an additional 1 to 3
inches of rain likely to produce flash flooding.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by showers and thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Durham, Chapel Hill, Burlington, Hillsborough, Creedmoor,
Pittsboro, Siler City, Carrboro, Mebane, Haw River, Swepsonville,
Alamance, and Stem.

This includes the following frequently flooded locations...
Hwy 15-501 Business & Durham-Chapel Hill Blvd, Hillandale Rd at
Ellerbe Creek, Cole Mill Rd at I-85, W Club Blvd between Hillandale
Rd and Guess Rd, S. Roxboro St at the Durham Freeway, Estes Dr,
Camelot Dr and Cleland Dr along Bolin Creek, South Estes Extension,
Booker Creek Rd near Book Creek and Foxwood Dr, Eastgate Shopping
Center and Franklin St near Dobbins Dr.

#NWS #flood #nwsflashflood #FlashFloodWarning Flash Flood Warning for Bertie, NC; Gates, NC; Hertford, NC; Northampton, NC #NCwx
FFWAKQ

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Bertie County in northeastern North Carolina...
Southwestern Gates County in northeastern North Carolina...
Northwestern Hertford County in northeastern North Carolina...
Southeastern Northampton County in northeastern North Carolina...

* Until 915 AM EDT.

* At 606 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of
rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1.5 inches are
possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected
to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Ahoskie, Rich Square, Aulander, Woodland, Winton, Cofield,
Powellsville, Roxobel, Harrellsville, Union, Kelford, Lasker,
Saint John, Poor Town, Earleys, Millennium, Menola, Proctors
Corner, Connaritsa and Brantleys Grove.

The slow moving cold front keeps on keepin’ on. Thunderstorms and heavy rain on its southern side train just to the south of the heavily populated area.

The flood watch remains active but excessive rainfall guidance is moved just to our south.

#VAwx #NCwx #FlashFlooding

The slow moving cold front keeps on keepin’ on. Thunderstorms and heavy rain on its southern side train just to the south of the heavily populated area.

The flood watch remains active but excessive rainfall guidance is moved just to our south.

#VAwx #NCwx #FlashFlooding

#NWS #flood #nwsflashflood #FlashFloodWarning Flash Flood Warning for Davidson, NC; Forsyth, NC; Guilford, NC; Randolph, NC #NCwx
FFWRAH

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northeastern Davidson County in central North Carolina...
Forsyth County in central North Carolina...
Guilford County in central North Carolina...
Northern Randolph County in central North Carolina...

* Until 445 AM EDT.

* At 1253 AM EDT, Doppler radar continues to indicate training
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
2 and 4.5 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point, Thomasville, Kernersville,
Clemmons, McLeansville, Huntsville, Lewisville, Archdale,
Summerfield, Trinity, Gibsonville, Walkertown, Pleasant Garden,
Jamestown, Liberty, Oak Hollow Marina, Colfax and Sedge Garden.

#NWS #flood #nwsflashflood #FlashFloodWarning Flash Flood Warning for Davidson, NC; Forsyth, NC; Guilford, NC; Randolph, NC #NCwx
At 1141 PM EDT, Doppler radar continued to indicate training
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2
and 4 inches of rain have fallen in the last 4 hours. Additionally,
creek and streams continue to rise across Guilford County. Flash
flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point, Thomasville, Kernersville,
Clemmons, McLeansville, Huntsville, Lewisville, Archdale,
Summerfield, Trinity, Gibsonville, Walkertown, Pleasant Garden,
Jamestown, Liberty, Oak Hollow Marina, Colfax and Sedge Garden.

#NWS #flood #nwsflashflood #FlashFloodWarning Flash Flood Warning for Davidson, NC; Forsyth, NC; Guilford, NC; Randolph, NC #NCwx
At 1141 PM EDT, Doppler radar continued to indicate training
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2
and 4 inches of rain have fallen in the last 4 hours. Additionally,
creek and streams continue to rise across Guilford County. Flash
flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point, Thomasville, Kernersville,
Clemmons, McLeansville, Huntsville, Lewisville, Archdale,
Summerfield, Trinity, Gibsonville, Walkertown, Pleasant Garden,
Jamestown, Liberty, Oak Hollow Marina, Colfax and Sedge Garden.

#NWS #flood #nwsflashflood #FlashFloodWarning Flash Flood Warning for Davidson, NC; Forsyth, NC; Guilford, NC; Randolph, NC #NCwx
At 1046 PM EDT, Doppler radar continued to indicate thunderstorms
producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3.5
inches of rain have fallen in the last 3 hours. Additional rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area due to
training storms. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point, Thomasville, Kernersville,
Clemmons, McLeansville, Huntsville, Lewisville, Archdale,
Summerfield, Trinity, Gibsonville, Walkertown, Pleasant Garden,
Jamestown, Liberty, Oak Hollow Marina, Colfax and Sedge Garden.

#NWS #flood #nwsflashflood #FlashFloodWarning Flash Flood Warning for Davidson, NC; Forsyth, NC; Guilford, NC; Randolph, NC #NCwx
At 948 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar continues to show training storms across the
warned area, favorable for flash flooding.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point, Thomasville, Kernersville,
Clemmons, McLeansville, Huntsville, Lewisville, Archdale,
Summerfield, Trinity, Gibsonville, Walkertown, Pleasant Garden,
Jamestown, Liberty, Oak Hollow Marina, Colfax and Sedge Garden.

#NWS #flood #nwsflashflood #FlashFloodWarning Flash Flood Warning for Davidson, NC; Forsyth, NC; Guilford, NC; Randolph, NC #NCwx
FFWRAH

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northeastern Davidson County in central North Carolina...
Forsyth County in central North Carolina...
Guilford County in central North Carolina...
Northern Randolph County in central North Carolina...

* Until 245 AM EDT Thursday.

* At 843 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain
have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are
possible in the warned area as we go through the night.
Additionally, Buffalo Creek in Greensboro is already starting to
rise. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point, Thomasville, Kernersville,
Clemmons, McLeansville, Huntsville, Lewisville, Archdale,
Summerfield, Trinity, Gibsonville, Walkertown, Pleasant Garden,
Jamestown, Liberty, Oak Hollow Marina, Colfax and Sedge Garden.

1400 q NWS Wakefield VA updated forecast. Rain overnight and Thursday. Forecast in image description #VAwx #NCwx #FlashFlooding

1400 q NWS Wakefield VA updated forecast. Rain overnight and Thursday. Forecast in image description #VAwx #NCwx #FlashFlooding

1400 q NWS Wakefield VA updated forecast. Rain overnight and Thursday. Forecast in image description #VAwx #NCwx #FlashFlooding

1400 q NWS Wakefield VA updated forecast. Rain overnight and Thursday. Forecast in image description #VAwx #NCwx #FlashFlooding

1400 q NWS Wakefield VA updated forecast. Rain overnight and Thursday. Forecast in image description #VAwx #NCwx #FlashFlooding

📰 NC FLOOD WATCH

A flood watch covering a vast area of NC is in effect.

Refer to map here from Ready NC, and related weather/emergency information:

https://www.readync.gov/weather

@NCConnect

#NCWx

📰 NC FLOOD WATCH

A flood watch covering a vast area of NC is in effect.

Refer to map here from Ready NC, and related weather/emergency information:

https://www.readync.gov/weather

@NCConnect

#NCWx

📰 NC FLOOD WATCH

A flood watch covering a vast area of NC is in effect.

Refer to map here from Ready NC, and related weather/emergency information:

https://www.readync.gov/weather

@NCConnect

#NCWx

📰 NC FLOOD WATCH

A flood watch covering a vast area of NC is in effect.

Refer to map here from Ready NC, and related weather/emergency information:

https://www.readync.gov/weather

@NCConnect

#NCWx

Someone at WPC is drawing faces on the excessive rainfall guidance to cheer us up.

The Virginia focus in Wednesday’s Nasty or Nice outlook is a bit of nastiness but a whole lot of rain.

426 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, east-central Virginia, and north-central Virginia.

Today and tonight, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding.

#NastyOrNiceOutlook #VAwx #NCwx

Someone at WPC is drawing faces on the excessive rainfall guidance to cheer us up.

The Virginia focus in Wednesday’s Nasty or Nice outlook is a bit of nastiness but a whole lot of rain.

426 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, east-central Virginia, and north-central Virginia.

Today and tonight, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding.

#NastyOrNiceOutlook #VAwx #NCwx

Someone at WPC is drawing faces on the excessive rainfall guidance to cheer us up.

The Virginia focus in Wednesday’s Nasty or Nice outlook is a bit of nastiness but a whole lot of rain.

426 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, east-central Virginia, and north-central Virginia.

Today and tonight, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding.

#NastyOrNiceOutlook #VAwx #NCwx

Someone at WPC is drawing faces on the excessive rainfall guidance to cheer us up.

The Virginia focus in Wednesday’s Nasty or Nice outlook is a bit of nastiness but a whole lot of rain.

426 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, east-central Virginia, and north-central Virginia.

Today and tonight, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding.

#NastyOrNiceOutlook #VAwx #NCwx

Someone at WPC is drawing faces on the excessive rainfall guidance to cheer us up.

The Virginia focus in Wednesday’s Nasty or Nice outlook is a bit of nastiness but a whole lot of rain.

426 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, east-central Virginia, and north-central Virginia.

Today and tonight, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding.

#NastyOrNiceOutlook #VAwx #NCwx

#NCwx #NWSRaleigh
Waves of repeated showers and storms with heavy rain will focus along a front that will edge very slowly southward and into the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain through tonight. While locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be the primary severe threat, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out in and immediately adjacent to the Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) area.

#NCwx #NWSRaleigh
Waves of repeated showers and storms with heavy rain will focus along a front that will edge very slowly southward and into the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain through tonight. While locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be the primary severe threat, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out in and immediately adjacent to the Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) area.

#NCwx #NWSRaleigh
Waves of repeated showers and storms with heavy rain will focus along a front that will edge very slowly southward and into the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain through tonight. While locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be the primary severe threat, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out in and immediately adjacent to the Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) area.

#NCwx #NWSRaleigh
Waves of repeated showers and storms with heavy rain will focus along a front that will edge very slowly southward and into the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain through tonight. While locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be the primary severe threat, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out in and immediately adjacent to the Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) area.

#NCwx #NWSRaleigh
Waves of repeated showers and storms with heavy rain will focus along a front that will edge very slowly southward and into the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain through tonight. While locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be the primary severe threat, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out in and immediately adjacent to the Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) area.

#NCwx #SCwx #GAwx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
303 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The severe storm threat continues today but chance is lower. Forecast heavy rainfall the threat for isolated flash flooding continues, but the best locations and timing remain uncertain.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Very active convective weather is expected through the end of the week, as a frontal boundary moves into the area and stalls. Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with an escalating risk of heavy rainfall and potentially flash flooding from tonight through at least Friday. 2. A return to typical late July weather is expected next week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Very active convective weather is expected through the end of the week, as a frontal boundary moves into the area and stalls. Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with an escalating risk of heavy rainfall and potentially flash flooding from tonight through at least Friday.

A slow moving frontal zone will settle over the area today and stalling near the area on Thursday as a couple of short waves rotate through an upper trough developing over the East Coast. This will lead to increased forcing and an increase in bulk shear. Convection will be slower to start than usual, mainly late afternoon into the evening and storms will be slow to move south across the area. The air mass remains moist and unstable, but mid-level lapse rates will be meager. Still, the low-level lapse rates may increase enough with daytime heating for an isolated severe storm with damaging winds.

The bigger concern will end up being the potential for heavy rainfall as periods of thunderstorms cross the area along and near the stalled frontal boundary through Friday. PW values are forecast to surge to 2" (or more) over the area within deep SW flow, and forecast soundings depict very deep warm cloud depths of over 12 kft, along with notable instability lingering well past the typical diurnal cycle. With mean cloud-bearing winds of 20 kts or more expected, cell movement will be relatively fast. However, the mean flow will be oriented almost perfectly parallel to the boundary, creating the threat for training, highly efficient rainfall- producing cells. That said, uncertainty remains regarding the best location for training cells as the guidance continues to favor different locations. The resulting QPF also varies in amounts and locations. Given this uncertainty, will hold off on issuing a Flood Watch at this time. Prefer to wait for some consolidation in the guidance to target the main threat areas instead of issuing a forecast area-wide watch that remains in effect for days…

#NCwx #SCwx #GAwx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
303 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The severe storm threat continues today but chance is lower. Forecast heavy rainfall the threat for isolated flash flooding continues, but the best locations and timing remain uncertain.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Very active convective weather is expected through the end of the week, as a frontal boundary moves into the area and stalls. Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with an escalating risk of heavy rainfall and potentially flash flooding from tonight through at least Friday. 2. A return to typical late July weather is expected next week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Very active convective weather is expected through the end of the week, as a frontal boundary moves into the area and stalls. Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with an escalating risk of heavy rainfall and potentially flash flooding from tonight through at least Friday.

A slow moving frontal zone will settle over the area today and stalling near the area on Thursday as a couple of short waves rotate through an upper trough developing over the East Coast. This will lead to increased forcing and an increase in bulk shear. Convection will be slower to start than usual, mainly late afternoon into the evening and storms will be slow to move south across the area. The air mass remains moist and unstable, but mid-level lapse rates will be meager. Still, the low-level lapse rates may increase enough with daytime heating for an isolated severe storm with damaging winds.

The bigger concern will end up being the potential for heavy rainfall as periods of thunderstorms cross the area along and near the stalled frontal boundary through Friday. PW values are forecast to surge to 2" (or more) over the area within deep SW flow, and forecast soundings depict very deep warm cloud depths of over 12 kft, along with notable instability lingering well past the typical diurnal cycle. With mean cloud-bearing winds of 20 kts or more expected, cell movement will be relatively fast. However, the mean flow will be oriented almost perfectly parallel to the boundary, creating the threat for training, highly efficient rainfall- producing cells. That said, uncertainty remains regarding the best location for training cells as the guidance continues to favor different locations. The resulting QPF also varies in amounts and locations. Given this uncertainty, will hold off on issuing a Flood Watch at this time. Prefer to wait for some consolidation in the guidance to target the main threat areas instead of issuing a forecast area-wide watch that remains in effect for days…

#NCwx #SCwx #GAwx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
303 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The severe storm threat continues today but chance is lower. Forecast heavy rainfall the threat for isolated flash flooding continues, but the best locations and timing remain uncertain.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Very active convective weather is expected through the end of the week, as a frontal boundary moves into the area and stalls. Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with an escalating risk of heavy rainfall and potentially flash flooding from tonight through at least Friday. 2. A return to typical late July weather is expected next week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Very active convective weather is expected through the end of the week, as a frontal boundary moves into the area and stalls. Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with an escalating risk of heavy rainfall and potentially flash flooding from tonight through at least Friday.

A slow moving frontal zone will settle over the area today and stalling near the area on Thursday as a couple of short waves rotate through an upper trough developing over the East Coast. This will lead to increased forcing and an increase in bulk shear. Convection will be slower to start than usual, mainly late afternoon into the evening and storms will be slow to move south across the area. The air mass remains moist and unstable, but mid-level lapse rates will be meager. Still, the low-level lapse rates may increase enough with daytime heating for an isolated severe storm with damaging winds.

The bigger concern will end up being the potential for heavy rainfall as periods of thunderstorms cross the area along and near the stalled frontal boundary through Friday. PW values are forecast to surge to 2" (or more) over the area within deep SW flow, and forecast soundings depict very deep warm cloud depths of over 12 kft, along with notable instability lingering well past the typical diurnal cycle. With mean cloud-bearing winds of 20 kts or more expected, cell movement will be relatively fast. However, the mean flow will be oriented almost perfectly parallel to the boundary, creating the threat for training, highly efficient rainfall- producing cells. That said, uncertainty remains regarding the best location for training cells as the guidance continues to favor different locations. The resulting QPF also varies in amounts and locations. Given this uncertainty, will hold off on issuing a Flood Watch at this time. Prefer to wait for some consolidation in the guidance to target the main threat areas instead of issuing a forecast area-wide watch that remains in effect for days…

#NCwx

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* A (Flash) Flood Watch has been issued for central NC, with staggered starting and ending times from north to south to account for the estimated timing of the progression of a slow-moving cold front and focus for waves of showers/storms and heaviest rainfall.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 500 AM Wednesday...

1) Waves of showers and thunderstorms with excessive rain will focus along a slow-moving, outflow-reinforced/strengthened cold front through Thu-Thu night.

2) The slow moving cold front across the Carolinas will settle south and stall across the southern Carolinas for Friday and into the weekend with the area of widespread rain shifting south and the rainfall intensity decreasing on Friday and especially Saturday.

DISCUSSION

As of 500 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Waves of showers and thunderstorms with excessive rain will focus along a slow-moving, outflow-reinforced/strengthened cold front through Thu-Thu night.

Within a trough anchored by a mid/upr-level cyclone that will lift through QC, a compact shortwave perturbation evident over wrn ON in GOES-E water vapor satellite data will dig sewd into the lwr Great Lakes through this evening, then probably phase with the lifting cyclone across QC through Thu. The digging wave will maintain generally neutral to weakly rising height tendencies throughout the Middle Atlantic today, followed by more-strongly rising heights within a weakening ern CONUS trough Thu-Thu night. Cntl NC will remain situated within the base of that trough and probably influenced most strongly by MCVs of varying size and strength that will both progress newd from the TN Valley and srn Appalachians this morning and also develop in situ from regenerative convection over the srn Middle Atlantic, and also within a deeply moist swly flow regime characterized by PWs of 2-2.5" and up to 125% or so of normal; weakly veering winds from the surface through the mid-levels (indicative of WAA and contribution to QG forcing for ascent); and uniformly 30-40 kt wind speeds in the 850-500 mb layer. Related small upwind propagation/Corfidi vectors will favor training and backbuilding convection along and into a similarly-aligned low-level frontal zone that will strengthen and settle very slowly ssewd across the srn Middle Atlantic…

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through Thursday evening for NCZ007>011-021>025. Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for NCZ026>028-038>041. Flood Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NCZ042-043- 073>078-083>086-088-089.

#NCwx

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* A (Flash) Flood Watch has been issued for central NC, with staggered starting and ending times from north to south to account for the estimated timing of the progression of a slow-moving cold front and focus for waves of showers/storms and heaviest rainfall.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 500 AM Wednesday...

1) Waves of showers and thunderstorms with excessive rain will focus along a slow-moving, outflow-reinforced/strengthened cold front through Thu-Thu night.

2) The slow moving cold front across the Carolinas will settle south and stall across the southern Carolinas for Friday and into the weekend with the area of widespread rain shifting south and the rainfall intensity decreasing on Friday and especially Saturday.

DISCUSSION

As of 500 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Waves of showers and thunderstorms with excessive rain will focus along a slow-moving, outflow-reinforced/strengthened cold front through Thu-Thu night.

Within a trough anchored by a mid/upr-level cyclone that will lift through QC, a compact shortwave perturbation evident over wrn ON in GOES-E water vapor satellite data will dig sewd into the lwr Great Lakes through this evening, then probably phase with the lifting cyclone across QC through Thu. The digging wave will maintain generally neutral to weakly rising height tendencies throughout the Middle Atlantic today, followed by more-strongly rising heights within a weakening ern CONUS trough Thu-Thu night. Cntl NC will remain situated within the base of that trough and probably influenced most strongly by MCVs of varying size and strength that will both progress newd from the TN Valley and srn Appalachians this morning and also develop in situ from regenerative convection over the srn Middle Atlantic, and also within a deeply moist swly flow regime characterized by PWs of 2-2.5" and up to 125% or so of normal; weakly veering winds from the surface through the mid-levels (indicative of WAA and contribution to QG forcing for ascent); and uniformly 30-40 kt wind speeds in the 850-500 mb layer. Related small upwind propagation/Corfidi vectors will favor training and backbuilding convection along and into a similarly-aligned low-level frontal zone that will strengthen and settle very slowly ssewd across the srn Middle Atlantic…

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through Thursday evening for NCZ007>011-021>025. Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for NCZ026>028-038>041. Flood Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NCZ042-043- 073>078-083>086-088-089.

#NCwx

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* A (Flash) Flood Watch has been issued for central NC, with staggered starting and ending times from north to south to account for the estimated timing of the progression of a slow-moving cold front and focus for waves of showers/storms and heaviest rainfall.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 500 AM Wednesday...

1) Waves of showers and thunderstorms with excessive rain will focus along a slow-moving, outflow-reinforced/strengthened cold front through Thu-Thu night.

2) The slow moving cold front across the Carolinas will settle south and stall across the southern Carolinas for Friday and into the weekend with the area of widespread rain shifting south and the rainfall intensity decreasing on Friday and especially Saturday.

DISCUSSION

As of 500 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Waves of showers and thunderstorms with excessive rain will focus along a slow-moving, outflow-reinforced/strengthened cold front through Thu-Thu night.

Within a trough anchored by a mid/upr-level cyclone that will lift through QC, a compact shortwave perturbation evident over wrn ON in GOES-E water vapor satellite data will dig sewd into the lwr Great Lakes through this evening, then probably phase with the lifting cyclone across QC through Thu. The digging wave will maintain generally neutral to weakly rising height tendencies throughout the Middle Atlantic today, followed by more-strongly rising heights within a weakening ern CONUS trough Thu-Thu night. Cntl NC will remain situated within the base of that trough and probably influenced most strongly by MCVs of varying size and strength that will both progress newd from the TN Valley and srn Appalachians this morning and also develop in situ from regenerative convection over the srn Middle Atlantic, and also within a deeply moist swly flow regime characterized by PWs of 2-2.5" and up to 125% or so of normal; weakly veering winds from the surface through the mid-levels (indicative of WAA and contribution to QG forcing for ascent); and uniformly 30-40 kt wind speeds in the 850-500 mb layer. Related small upwind propagation/Corfidi vectors will favor training and backbuilding convection along and into a similarly-aligned low-level frontal zone that will strengthen and settle very slowly ssewd across the srn Middle Atlantic…

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through Thursday evening for NCZ007>011-021>025. Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for NCZ026>028-038>041. Flood Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NCZ042-043- 073>078-083>086-088-089.

#VAwx #NCwx #WVwx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
211 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Flood Watch remains in effect through tomorrow for most of the area along and south of the 460 corridor.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Organized east/west orientated line of storms looks to develop along and south of the 460 corridor in Virginia, leading to the possibility for some flash flooding, strong damaging wind gusts, and an isolated tornado through the afternoon and evening hours.

2) Temperatures should turn more seasonable by the middle of the week after a frontal passage.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Organized east/west orientated line of storms looks to develop along and south of the 460 corridor in Virginia, leading to the possibility for flash flooding, strong damaging wind gusts, and an isolated tornado through the afternoon and evening hours.

The frontal boundary that produced showers and thunderstorms across portions of the area on Tuesday is expected to lay out in an east/west orientation in the vicinity of the 460 corridor today. Recent CAM guidance appears to be in agreement of this organized line of training storms between the 460 corridor and the VA/NC border. Given this strong model agreement in CAM guidance, the flood watch will be continued through the NRV and surrounding counties and east into the Piedmonts of NC/VA through Wednesday evening for the potential for flash flooding in this zone. On the east side of this boundary where the environment will have more instability to work with, and winds at the surface look to remain backed, there is the potential for strong damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. While the environment does not look as favorable for severe weather and tornadoes compared to Tuesday, there is still a risk as deep layer shear in the 0-6km column remains elevated at around 30-40 knots, 0-3 km SRH values look to remain in the 100 m2/s2 threshold, and SCAPE values look to remain in the 1500-2000 J/Kg range. These values, while not as impressive as Tuesdays are still elevated enough to cause concern across Piedmont locations.

Overall, the largest concern with the aforementioned surface boundary will be flash flooding as storms look to train in an east/west orientation through the early morning and afternoon timeframe. PWATS in the 1.8-2.2 inch range will make for extremely efficient rainfall rates across the area, making 4-6 inch per hour rates very common. With rates this high, and storms training, there is a high likelihood that flash flooding will occur across the aforementioned zone today. It is not out of the question that a stripe or zone of 2 to locally 5 inches with higher amounts possible to occur along/north of the VA/NC border counties today with repeated storms over the same locations. Not until after sunset do storms start to finally look to push east into the coastal plain of Virginia and North Carolina.