#ncwx — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #ncwx, aggregated by home.social.
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Was wondering how you would be with the map this week, after your snow.
Ours here in NC no longer show a region of "exceptional" over Charlotte, but the "extreme" is now covering a much larger area.
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Was wondering how you would be with the map this week, after your snow.
Ours here in NC no longer show a region of "exceptional" over Charlotte, but the "extreme" is now covering a much larger area.
-
Was wondering how you would be with the map this week, after your snow.
Ours here in NC no longer show a region of "exceptional" over Charlotte, but the "extreme" is now covering a much larger area.
-
Was wondering how you would be with the map this week, after your snow.
Ours here in NC no longer show a region of "exceptional" over Charlotte, but the "extreme" is now covering a much larger area.
-
Was wondering how you would be with the map this week, after your snow.
Ours here in NC no longer show a region of "exceptional" over Charlotte, but the "extreme" is now covering a much larger area.
-
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
103 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes to the forecast with this package.
Updated the 06z aviation discussion.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Warm and dry conditions, outside of an isolated shower or storm, continue through the weekend. A wetter pattern may return next week.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Warm and dry conditions, outside of an isolated shower or storm, continue through the weekend. A wetter pattern may return next week.
An upper trough responsible for the overnight frontal passage will lift northeast into New England and then offshore today. At the same time, a sharp upper ridge will slide across the Mississippi Valley and into the Appalachians. Heights will rise in response, especially as a deep upstream trough digs down the West Coast and into the Great Basin. This will bring a warming trend back to the region with highs climbing back into the upper 80s to low 90s by Saturday. Southeast return flow starts to bring moisture back into the area this weekend and could foster the development of isolated to widely scattered showers and storms. The best chance may end up being along the Savannah River Valley on Sunday within a low-level convergence zone. Either way, coverage appears to be meager and won`t contribute much improvement to drought conditions, if at all. By early next week, the first in a series of troughs ejects across the Great Plains and into the Ohio Valley. Associated frontal boundary may make a run at the Southern Appalachians and bring a wetter pattern back into the area, especially should the front stall, but guidance is split as to how far east this may happen and how much precipitation may return.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
103 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes to the forecast with this package.
Updated the 06z aviation discussion.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Warm and dry conditions, outside of an isolated shower or storm, continue through the weekend. A wetter pattern may return next week.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Warm and dry conditions, outside of an isolated shower or storm, continue through the weekend. A wetter pattern may return next week.
An upper trough responsible for the overnight frontal passage will lift northeast into New England and then offshore today. At the same time, a sharp upper ridge will slide across the Mississippi Valley and into the Appalachians. Heights will rise in response, especially as a deep upstream trough digs down the West Coast and into the Great Basin. This will bring a warming trend back to the region with highs climbing back into the upper 80s to low 90s by Saturday. Southeast return flow starts to bring moisture back into the area this weekend and could foster the development of isolated to widely scattered showers and storms. The best chance may end up being along the Savannah River Valley on Sunday within a low-level convergence zone. Either way, coverage appears to be meager and won`t contribute much improvement to drought conditions, if at all. By early next week, the first in a series of troughs ejects across the Great Plains and into the Ohio Valley. Associated frontal boundary may make a run at the Southern Appalachians and bring a wetter pattern back into the area, especially should the front stall, but guidance is split as to how far east this may happen and how much precipitation may return.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
103 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes to the forecast with this package.
Updated the 06z aviation discussion.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Warm and dry conditions, outside of an isolated shower or storm, continue through the weekend. A wetter pattern may return next week.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Warm and dry conditions, outside of an isolated shower or storm, continue through the weekend. A wetter pattern may return next week.
An upper trough responsible for the overnight frontal passage will lift northeast into New England and then offshore today. At the same time, a sharp upper ridge will slide across the Mississippi Valley and into the Appalachians. Heights will rise in response, especially as a deep upstream trough digs down the West Coast and into the Great Basin. This will bring a warming trend back to the region with highs climbing back into the upper 80s to low 90s by Saturday. Southeast return flow starts to bring moisture back into the area this weekend and could foster the development of isolated to widely scattered showers and storms. The best chance may end up being along the Savannah River Valley on Sunday within a low-level convergence zone. Either way, coverage appears to be meager and won`t contribute much improvement to drought conditions, if at all. By early next week, the first in a series of troughs ejects across the Great Plains and into the Ohio Valley. Associated frontal boundary may make a run at the Southern Appalachians and bring a wetter pattern back into the area, especially should the front stall, but guidance is split as to how far east this may happen and how much precipitation may return.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Nothing appreciable
KEY MESSAGES
As of 240 AM Thursday...
1) Becoming hot, seasonably moist/humid, and with limited diurnal convection during the latter half of the weekend through mid next week
DISCUSSION
As of 240 AM Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Becoming hot, seasonably moist/humid, and with limited diurnal convection during the latter half of the weekend through mid next week
The flow aloft will undergo amplification during the latter half of the weekend into early to mid next week, as trough anchored by a cyclone now over the Gulf of AK progresses inland and across the Pacific Northwest and Rockies. Downstream and through the same time, a mid-level, sub-tropical high now over TX will progress ewd and strengthen along or just off the srn Middle Atlantic coast.
Surface high pressure beneath and downstream of the associated sub- tropical high will extend from near Bermuda to the South Atlantic coast, while a trough will extend in the lee of the srn and cntl Appalachians and a sea breeze will probably move through the entirety of cntl NC each late afternoon-evening. Warm and seasonably moist sswly flow around the Bermuda high and across cntl NC will favor afternoon temperatures mostly in the lwr 90s and mixed dewpoints in the mid 50s-lwr 60s by Sun, with similarly hot and perhaps slightly more-humid conditions likely to continue through the middle of next week. An associated weakly unstable and weakly capped environment (with pockets of moderate instability possible) will become supportive of isolated/widely scattered convection - favored along the lee trough (nw Piedmont) and also possibly along the sea breeze (Sampson Co.) through mid-evening, when nocturnal cooling and boundary layer stabilization should cause convective inhibition to become prohibitive to development. More than slight to low chance probabilities of rain/convection will not result until the next cold front reaches cntl NC, probably not until just beyond the valid forecast period (ie. not until Thu).
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Nothing appreciable
KEY MESSAGES
As of 240 AM Thursday...
1) Becoming hot, seasonably moist/humid, and with limited diurnal convection during the latter half of the weekend through mid next week
DISCUSSION
As of 240 AM Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Becoming hot, seasonably moist/humid, and with limited diurnal convection during the latter half of the weekend through mid next week
The flow aloft will undergo amplification during the latter half of the weekend into early to mid next week, as trough anchored by a cyclone now over the Gulf of AK progresses inland and across the Pacific Northwest and Rockies. Downstream and through the same time, a mid-level, sub-tropical high now over TX will progress ewd and strengthen along or just off the srn Middle Atlantic coast.
Surface high pressure beneath and downstream of the associated sub- tropical high will extend from near Bermuda to the South Atlantic coast, while a trough will extend in the lee of the srn and cntl Appalachians and a sea breeze will probably move through the entirety of cntl NC each late afternoon-evening. Warm and seasonably moist sswly flow around the Bermuda high and across cntl NC will favor afternoon temperatures mostly in the lwr 90s and mixed dewpoints in the mid 50s-lwr 60s by Sun, with similarly hot and perhaps slightly more-humid conditions likely to continue through the middle of next week. An associated weakly unstable and weakly capped environment (with pockets of moderate instability possible) will become supportive of isolated/widely scattered convection - favored along the lee trough (nw Piedmont) and also possibly along the sea breeze (Sampson Co.) through mid-evening, when nocturnal cooling and boundary layer stabilization should cause convective inhibition to become prohibitive to development. More than slight to low chance probabilities of rain/convection will not result until the next cold front reaches cntl NC, probably not until just beyond the valid forecast period (ie. not until Thu).
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Nothing appreciable
KEY MESSAGES
As of 240 AM Thursday...
1) Becoming hot, seasonably moist/humid, and with limited diurnal convection during the latter half of the weekend through mid next week
DISCUSSION
As of 240 AM Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Becoming hot, seasonably moist/humid, and with limited diurnal convection during the latter half of the weekend through mid next week
The flow aloft will undergo amplification during the latter half of the weekend into early to mid next week, as trough anchored by a cyclone now over the Gulf of AK progresses inland and across the Pacific Northwest and Rockies. Downstream and through the same time, a mid-level, sub-tropical high now over TX will progress ewd and strengthen along or just off the srn Middle Atlantic coast.
Surface high pressure beneath and downstream of the associated sub- tropical high will extend from near Bermuda to the South Atlantic coast, while a trough will extend in the lee of the srn and cntl Appalachians and a sea breeze will probably move through the entirety of cntl NC each late afternoon-evening. Warm and seasonably moist sswly flow around the Bermuda high and across cntl NC will favor afternoon temperatures mostly in the lwr 90s and mixed dewpoints in the mid 50s-lwr 60s by Sun, with similarly hot and perhaps slightly more-humid conditions likely to continue through the middle of next week. An associated weakly unstable and weakly capped environment (with pockets of moderate instability possible) will become supportive of isolated/widely scattered convection - favored along the lee trough (nw Piedmont) and also possibly along the sea breeze (Sampson Co.) through mid-evening, when nocturnal cooling and boundary layer stabilization should cause convective inhibition to become prohibitive to development. More than slight to low chance probabilities of rain/convection will not result until the next cold front reaches cntl NC, probably not until just beyond the valid forecast period (ie. not until Thu).
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
208 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Aviation section updated.
Confidence increasing for record-breaking heat Sunday through Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGES
Key Message 1: Relatively quiet weather for the rest of the week with some small chances of rain.
Key Message 2: Warming trend next week with abnormally hot temperatures.
DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Relatively quiet weather for the rest of the week with some small chances of rain.
Residual scattered showers may linger this morning for the western mountainous counties but the cold front is moving through and the bulk of the precipitation is out of the area. A surface high pressure system will follow with its center traveling southeastwardly into the Atlantic by the weekend. The new air mass will support relatively quiet and drier weather for the next few days.
Meanwhile, a large mid-level low in our vicinity will propagate to the northeast and lead to more zonal flow over the Mid-Atlantic. Some perturbations will swing by to provide additional chances for upslope based precipitation for this weekend. Given the drier air, serious lack of synoptic lift, and weak shear, these showers are expected to be limited in coverage and intensity. The zonal flow also means temperatures and dew points will start to recover with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s by Saturday.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
208 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Aviation section updated.
Confidence increasing for record-breaking heat Sunday through Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGES
Key Message 1: Relatively quiet weather for the rest of the week with some small chances of rain.
Key Message 2: Warming trend next week with abnormally hot temperatures.
DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Relatively quiet weather for the rest of the week with some small chances of rain.
Residual scattered showers may linger this morning for the western mountainous counties but the cold front is moving through and the bulk of the precipitation is out of the area. A surface high pressure system will follow with its center traveling southeastwardly into the Atlantic by the weekend. The new air mass will support relatively quiet and drier weather for the next few days.
Meanwhile, a large mid-level low in our vicinity will propagate to the northeast and lead to more zonal flow over the Mid-Atlantic. Some perturbations will swing by to provide additional chances for upslope based precipitation for this weekend. Given the drier air, serious lack of synoptic lift, and weak shear, these showers are expected to be limited in coverage and intensity. The zonal flow also means temperatures and dew points will start to recover with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s by Saturday.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
208 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Aviation section updated.
Confidence increasing for record-breaking heat Sunday through Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGES
Key Message 1: Relatively quiet weather for the rest of the week with some small chances of rain.
Key Message 2: Warming trend next week with abnormally hot temperatures.
DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Relatively quiet weather for the rest of the week with some small chances of rain.
Residual scattered showers may linger this morning for the western mountainous counties but the cold front is moving through and the bulk of the precipitation is out of the area. A surface high pressure system will follow with its center traveling southeastwardly into the Atlantic by the weekend. The new air mass will support relatively quiet and drier weather for the next few days.
Meanwhile, a large mid-level low in our vicinity will propagate to the northeast and lead to more zonal flow over the Mid-Atlantic. Some perturbations will swing by to provide additional chances for upslope based precipitation for this weekend. Given the drier air, serious lack of synoptic lift, and weak shear, these showers are expected to be limited in coverage and intensity. The zonal flow also means temperatures and dew points will start to recover with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s by Saturday.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
343 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026MARINE
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the bay and Tidal rivers starting this morning and lasting through Tomorrow AM.
- Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week with primarily southerly winds.
Early morning weather analysis shows showers moving over the coastal waters ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front is still to the west located over the Blue Ridge mountains. The pressure gradient ahead of the front remains weak and with the showers the winds remain light and variable. Waves are around 1-2ft across the bay with 2ft primarily across the mouth and southern bay and 3-4ft across the ocean.
Later this morning, the cold front will push through the waters shifting the winds to the NW. With cooler and drier moving over the waters winds will increase especially with the initial surge of the front. Winds will be between 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the bay. While across the ocean winds will will be around 15 kt with gusts at or just slightly above 20kt. With the initial surge of the front Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Tidal rivers and bay. The bay goes into effect at 8am and the rivers at 11am. After the first initial surge, winds will decrease in the mid- afternoon and remain just below SCA criteria, but will remain out of the NW. However, the SCA will remain in effect as model guidance hints on a second surge of drier air in the early evening hours causing to winds once again increase around 15 kt with gusts at or slightly above 20kt across all waters. Seas during this time will increase to 2-3ft across the bay and 3-4ft across the ocean near shore and 5-7ft across the 20-60nm zones. Winds will start to decrease Friday afternoon and the SCA will be able to expire as high pressure begins to move overhead. Then by the weekend high pressure moves offshore and winds will remain Sub-SCA and out of the SW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
Friday for ANZ635>637-639. -
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
343 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026MARINE
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the bay and Tidal rivers starting this morning and lasting through Tomorrow AM.
- Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week with primarily southerly winds.
Early morning weather analysis shows showers moving over the coastal waters ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front is still to the west located over the Blue Ridge mountains. The pressure gradient ahead of the front remains weak and with the showers the winds remain light and variable. Waves are around 1-2ft across the bay with 2ft primarily across the mouth and southern bay and 3-4ft across the ocean.
Later this morning, the cold front will push through the waters shifting the winds to the NW. With cooler and drier moving over the waters winds will increase especially with the initial surge of the front. Winds will be between 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the bay. While across the ocean winds will will be around 15 kt with gusts at or just slightly above 20kt. With the initial surge of the front Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Tidal rivers and bay. The bay goes into effect at 8am and the rivers at 11am. After the first initial surge, winds will decrease in the mid- afternoon and remain just below SCA criteria, but will remain out of the NW. However, the SCA will remain in effect as model guidance hints on a second surge of drier air in the early evening hours causing to winds once again increase around 15 kt with gusts at or slightly above 20kt across all waters. Seas during this time will increase to 2-3ft across the bay and 3-4ft across the ocean near shore and 5-7ft across the 20-60nm zones. Winds will start to decrease Friday afternoon and the SCA will be able to expire as high pressure begins to move overhead. Then by the weekend high pressure moves offshore and winds will remain Sub-SCA and out of the SW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
Friday for ANZ635>637-639. -
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
343 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026MARINE
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the bay and Tidal rivers starting this morning and lasting through Tomorrow AM.
- Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week with primarily southerly winds.
Early morning weather analysis shows showers moving over the coastal waters ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front is still to the west located over the Blue Ridge mountains. The pressure gradient ahead of the front remains weak and with the showers the winds remain light and variable. Waves are around 1-2ft across the bay with 2ft primarily across the mouth and southern bay and 3-4ft across the ocean.
Later this morning, the cold front will push through the waters shifting the winds to the NW. With cooler and drier moving over the waters winds will increase especially with the initial surge of the front. Winds will be between 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the bay. While across the ocean winds will will be around 15 kt with gusts at or just slightly above 20kt. With the initial surge of the front Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Tidal rivers and bay. The bay goes into effect at 8am and the rivers at 11am. After the first initial surge, winds will decrease in the mid- afternoon and remain just below SCA criteria, but will remain out of the NW. However, the SCA will remain in effect as model guidance hints on a second surge of drier air in the early evening hours causing to winds once again increase around 15 kt with gusts at or slightly above 20kt across all waters. Seas during this time will increase to 2-3ft across the bay and 3-4ft across the ocean near shore and 5-7ft across the 20-60nm zones. Winds will start to decrease Friday afternoon and the SCA will be able to expire as high pressure begins to move overhead. Then by the weekend high pressure moves offshore and winds will remain Sub-SCA and out of the SW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
Friday for ANZ635>637-639. -
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
343 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
- No significant forecast changes. Updated Discussions.
- Marine: -Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay and Tidal rivers.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Scattered to numerous showers early this morning (east) as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, cool today with mainly dry conditions/isolated showers possible into the aftn.
2) Significant warming trend heading into the weekend, lasting through the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered to numerous showers early this morning (east) as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, cool today with mainly dry conditions/isolated showers possible into the aftn.
Early AM WX analysis indicates sfc low pressure centered across the St Lawrence Valley, with a trailing cold front currently pushing through the CWA. Along and ahead of the front, scattered to numerous showers are ongoing over VA/MD, but with a lower coverage to the south in NC. The bulk of the shower activity has ended farther west, but rather surprisingly, there was some locally "heavier" rainfall, with amounts of 0.50"+ observed at RIC/OFP and a decent swath of 0.25-0.50" for much of metro Richmond. While certainly no drought-buster, this was a solid over-performance of rain total compared to the anticipated lower amounts and is definitely welcome in the current drought. Farther to the SE, amounts have generally been minimal as expected, but there could be some brief heavier showers through around sunrise.
Temperatures remain cool today, with N-NW flow and the cold pool aloft as the upper low becomes centered over the NE and mid-Atlantic region. Highs will will be about 5- 10 degrees below normal, generally in the upper 60s for most, with some lower 70s possible in the S/SW. After a mostly cloudy start, expect variable cloudiness through the day as any daytime heating from the strong May sun angle will likely lead to redeveloping CU. Would not be surprised to see a few sprinkles or isolated showers redevelop in the aftn. For now, the models still seem to focus this across the far SE where surface dew points are a little higher, but this still could occur as far back to the NW as metro RIC as well. Clearing out this evening, but some clouds are likely to persist over redevelop over the NE into Friday morning as the final shortwave dives SE through the region.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
343 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
- No significant forecast changes. Updated Discussions.
- Marine: -Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay and Tidal rivers.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Scattered to numerous showers early this morning (east) as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, cool today with mainly dry conditions/isolated showers possible into the aftn.
2) Significant warming trend heading into the weekend, lasting through the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered to numerous showers early this morning (east) as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, cool today with mainly dry conditions/isolated showers possible into the aftn.
Early AM WX analysis indicates sfc low pressure centered across the St Lawrence Valley, with a trailing cold front currently pushing through the CWA. Along and ahead of the front, scattered to numerous showers are ongoing over VA/MD, but with a lower coverage to the south in NC. The bulk of the shower activity has ended farther west, but rather surprisingly, there was some locally "heavier" rainfall, with amounts of 0.50"+ observed at RIC/OFP and a decent swath of 0.25-0.50" for much of metro Richmond. While certainly no drought-buster, this was a solid over-performance of rain total compared to the anticipated lower amounts and is definitely welcome in the current drought. Farther to the SE, amounts have generally been minimal as expected, but there could be some brief heavier showers through around sunrise.
Temperatures remain cool today, with N-NW flow and the cold pool aloft as the upper low becomes centered over the NE and mid-Atlantic region. Highs will will be about 5- 10 degrees below normal, generally in the upper 60s for most, with some lower 70s possible in the S/SW. After a mostly cloudy start, expect variable cloudiness through the day as any daytime heating from the strong May sun angle will likely lead to redeveloping CU. Would not be surprised to see a few sprinkles or isolated showers redevelop in the aftn. For now, the models still seem to focus this across the far SE where surface dew points are a little higher, but this still could occur as far back to the NW as metro RIC as well. Clearing out this evening, but some clouds are likely to persist over redevelop over the NE into Friday morning as the final shortwave dives SE through the region.
-
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
343 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
- No significant forecast changes. Updated Discussions.
- Marine: -Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay and Tidal rivers.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Scattered to numerous showers early this morning (east) as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, cool today with mainly dry conditions/isolated showers possible into the aftn.
2) Significant warming trend heading into the weekend, lasting through the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered to numerous showers early this morning (east) as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, cool today with mainly dry conditions/isolated showers possible into the aftn.
Early AM WX analysis indicates sfc low pressure centered across the St Lawrence Valley, with a trailing cold front currently pushing through the CWA. Along and ahead of the front, scattered to numerous showers are ongoing over VA/MD, but with a lower coverage to the south in NC. The bulk of the shower activity has ended farther west, but rather surprisingly, there was some locally "heavier" rainfall, with amounts of 0.50"+ observed at RIC/OFP and a decent swath of 0.25-0.50" for much of metro Richmond. While certainly no drought-buster, this was a solid over-performance of rain total compared to the anticipated lower amounts and is definitely welcome in the current drought. Farther to the SE, amounts have generally been minimal as expected, but there could be some brief heavier showers through around sunrise.
Temperatures remain cool today, with N-NW flow and the cold pool aloft as the upper low becomes centered over the NE and mid-Atlantic region. Highs will will be about 5- 10 degrees below normal, generally in the upper 60s for most, with some lower 70s possible in the S/SW. After a mostly cloudy start, expect variable cloudiness through the day as any daytime heating from the strong May sun angle will likely lead to redeveloping CU. Would not be surprised to see a few sprinkles or isolated showers redevelop in the aftn. For now, the models still seem to focus this across the far SE where surface dew points are a little higher, but this still could occur as far back to the NW as metro RIC as well. Clearing out this evening, but some clouds are likely to persist over redevelop over the NE into Friday morning as the final shortwave dives SE through the region.
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From NC Weather Authority on FB: A different day is ahead across the state, our last few days before summer temps arrive. Happy Thursday, North Carolina! An isolated shower can't be ruled out early; otherwise, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s across most of the state, with temperatures turning cooler tonight. We will begin our warm up on Friday.
Have a great day!
-
From NC Weather Authority on FB: A different day is ahead across the state, our last few days before summer temps arrive. Happy Thursday, North Carolina! An isolated shower can't be ruled out early; otherwise, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s across most of the state, with temperatures turning cooler tonight. We will begin our warm up on Friday.
Have a great day!
-
From NC Weather Authority on FB: A different day is ahead across the state, our last few days before summer temps arrive. Happy Thursday, North Carolina! An isolated shower can't be ruled out early; otherwise, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s across most of the state, with temperatures turning cooler tonight. We will begin our warm up on Friday.
Have a great day!
-
How do you have a drought? Little by little, then all at once! Wednesday’s rain, if any, will be the overnight kind. Apparently,
SPC’s severe weather brief expects Wednesday’s thunderstorms to remain to our north and west catching the corner of the forecast area.
-
How do you have a drought? Little by little, then all at once! Wednesday’s rain, if any, will be the overnight kind. Apparently,
SPC’s severe weather brief expects Wednesday’s thunderstorms to remain to our north and west catching the corner of the forecast area.
-
How do you have a drought? Little by little, then all at once! Wednesday’s rain, if any, will be the overnight kind. Apparently,
SPC’s severe weather brief expects Wednesday’s thunderstorms to remain to our north and west catching the corner of the forecast area.
-
How do you have a drought? Little by little, then all at once! Wednesday’s rain, if any, will be the overnight kind. Apparently,
SPC’s severe weather brief expects Wednesday’s thunderstorms to remain to our north and west catching the corner of the forecast area.
-
How do you have a drought? Little by little, then all at once! Wednesday’s rain, if any, will be the overnight kind. Apparently,
SPC’s severe weather brief expects Wednesday’s thunderstorms to remain to our north and west catching the corner of the forecast area.
-
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
132 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes to the forecast with this forecast package.
Updated the 06z aviation forecast.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A cold front will bring spotty showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, this afternoon and evening. Warm and dry weather returns late week into the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: A cold front will bring spotty showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, this afternoon and evening. Warm and dry weather returns late week into the weekend.
Early morning water vapor imagery depicts a positively tilted trough sliding across the Midwest towards the Ohio Valley while surface analysis places an attendant cold front Chicago to central Missouri. Guidance is in good agreement that the trough will take on a neutral tilt as it swings across the Appalachians today with the cold front approaching the mountains this afternoon. The frontal boundary will push across the area late this afternoon through the evening hours. Forcing for ascent will be modest, but the antecedent airmass is rather dry with PWATs 1" or less. This will leave the system at least somewhat moisture starved with the trough orientation not supportive of sufficient moisture return prior to the arrival of the front. Nonetheless, a band of moisture pooling ahead of the boundary should support the development of a fast moving band of showers with a couple embedded thunderstorms over east Tennessee. This line will enter the mountains mid to late afternoon and across the foothills and Piedmont this evening. Coverage of showers, especially east of the mountains, may be rather limited with widely scattered showers. The front will also be moving fast enough that locations that do see rainfall aren`t expected to see any appreciable values that would ease drought conditions, unfortunately.
Thereafter, a tall upper ridge is progged to slide east across the Mississippi Valley and into the Appalachians where it will flatten late week into the weekend. This will support rising heights and warming temperatures with afternoon highs climbing back into the upper 80s to low 90s. At the same time, a deep western trough digs across the Great Basin through the weekend with broad downstream southwest flow draped across much of the Great Plains. Eventually, this may support some degree of moisture return back into the Southern Appalachians while embedded shortwave perturbations lift out of the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. The majority of any QPF response remains displaced off to our west and north, but isolated to widely scattered convection cannot be completely ruled out late in the period.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
132 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes to the forecast with this forecast package.
Updated the 06z aviation forecast.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A cold front will bring spotty showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, this afternoon and evening. Warm and dry weather returns late week into the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: A cold front will bring spotty showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, this afternoon and evening. Warm and dry weather returns late week into the weekend.
Early morning water vapor imagery depicts a positively tilted trough sliding across the Midwest towards the Ohio Valley while surface analysis places an attendant cold front Chicago to central Missouri. Guidance is in good agreement that the trough will take on a neutral tilt as it swings across the Appalachians today with the cold front approaching the mountains this afternoon. The frontal boundary will push across the area late this afternoon through the evening hours. Forcing for ascent will be modest, but the antecedent airmass is rather dry with PWATs 1" or less. This will leave the system at least somewhat moisture starved with the trough orientation not supportive of sufficient moisture return prior to the arrival of the front. Nonetheless, a band of moisture pooling ahead of the boundary should support the development of a fast moving band of showers with a couple embedded thunderstorms over east Tennessee. This line will enter the mountains mid to late afternoon and across the foothills and Piedmont this evening. Coverage of showers, especially east of the mountains, may be rather limited with widely scattered showers. The front will also be moving fast enough that locations that do see rainfall aren`t expected to see any appreciable values that would ease drought conditions, unfortunately.
Thereafter, a tall upper ridge is progged to slide east across the Mississippi Valley and into the Appalachians where it will flatten late week into the weekend. This will support rising heights and warming temperatures with afternoon highs climbing back into the upper 80s to low 90s. At the same time, a deep western trough digs across the Great Basin through the weekend with broad downstream southwest flow draped across much of the Great Plains. Eventually, this may support some degree of moisture return back into the Southern Appalachians while embedded shortwave perturbations lift out of the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. The majority of any QPF response remains displaced off to our west and north, but isolated to widely scattered convection cannot be completely ruled out late in the period.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
132 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes to the forecast with this forecast package.
Updated the 06z aviation forecast.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A cold front will bring spotty showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, this afternoon and evening. Warm and dry weather returns late week into the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: A cold front will bring spotty showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, this afternoon and evening. Warm and dry weather returns late week into the weekend.
Early morning water vapor imagery depicts a positively tilted trough sliding across the Midwest towards the Ohio Valley while surface analysis places an attendant cold front Chicago to central Missouri. Guidance is in good agreement that the trough will take on a neutral tilt as it swings across the Appalachians today with the cold front approaching the mountains this afternoon. The frontal boundary will push across the area late this afternoon through the evening hours. Forcing for ascent will be modest, but the antecedent airmass is rather dry with PWATs 1" or less. This will leave the system at least somewhat moisture starved with the trough orientation not supportive of sufficient moisture return prior to the arrival of the front. Nonetheless, a band of moisture pooling ahead of the boundary should support the development of a fast moving band of showers with a couple embedded thunderstorms over east Tennessee. This line will enter the mountains mid to late afternoon and across the foothills and Piedmont this evening. Coverage of showers, especially east of the mountains, may be rather limited with widely scattered showers. The front will also be moving fast enough that locations that do see rainfall aren`t expected to see any appreciable values that would ease drought conditions, unfortunately.
Thereafter, a tall upper ridge is progged to slide east across the Mississippi Valley and into the Appalachians where it will flatten late week into the weekend. This will support rising heights and warming temperatures with afternoon highs climbing back into the upper 80s to low 90s. At the same time, a deep western trough digs across the Great Basin through the weekend with broad downstream southwest flow draped across much of the Great Plains. Eventually, this may support some degree of moisture return back into the Southern Appalachians while embedded shortwave perturbations lift out of the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. The majority of any QPF response remains displaced off to our west and north, but isolated to widely scattered convection cannot be completely ruled out late in the period.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
253 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Updated Aviation discussion.
KEY MESSAGES
As of 250 AM Wednesday...
1) A broken line of decaying showers is expected to move across the area this evening into tonight.
2) Hot, seasonably moist/humid, and with limited (slight chances of) diurnal convection this weekend through the middle of next week
DISCUSSION
As of 250 AM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A broken line of decaying showers is expected to move across the area this evening into tonight.
A srn stream s/w will shift off the Southeast US coast this morning then lift newd off the East Coast through tonight. Meanwhile, a nrn stream s/w will track across the region, helping to amplify/sharpen the parent trough as a low closes off within it over srn Ontario. The trough will generally remain over the East Coast on Thu while the low drops sewd across the nrn mid-Atlantic, both shifting offshore Thu night/Fri. At the surface, as the high shifts farther offshore today, the ridge extending wwd into the region between a low moving off the Southeast US coast and a cold front approaching from the NW will gradually weaken. Low-level moisture recovery still appears to be limited ahead of the cold front arrival this evening, which will greatly limit instability across the area. With that in mind, as noted in the previous discussion, the line of convection along and ahead of the front to weaken/decay as it moves into and across the area this evening and tonight and maintenance of deep convection appears unlikely. Cannot completely rule out a rumble of thunder over the NW Piedmont this eve, but chances continue to decrease. Rainfall totals will generally be a tenth of an inch or less across the area. High temperatures should top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. The cold front will move across the area this eve/tonight and be off the Carolina coast by Thu morn. Cool high pressure will gradually build ewd into the region in Thu/Thu night.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
253 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Updated Aviation discussion.
KEY MESSAGES
As of 250 AM Wednesday...
1) A broken line of decaying showers is expected to move across the area this evening into tonight.
2) Hot, seasonably moist/humid, and with limited (slight chances of) diurnal convection this weekend through the middle of next week
DISCUSSION
As of 250 AM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A broken line of decaying showers is expected to move across the area this evening into tonight.
A srn stream s/w will shift off the Southeast US coast this morning then lift newd off the East Coast through tonight. Meanwhile, a nrn stream s/w will track across the region, helping to amplify/sharpen the parent trough as a low closes off within it over srn Ontario. The trough will generally remain over the East Coast on Thu while the low drops sewd across the nrn mid-Atlantic, both shifting offshore Thu night/Fri. At the surface, as the high shifts farther offshore today, the ridge extending wwd into the region between a low moving off the Southeast US coast and a cold front approaching from the NW will gradually weaken. Low-level moisture recovery still appears to be limited ahead of the cold front arrival this evening, which will greatly limit instability across the area. With that in mind, as noted in the previous discussion, the line of convection along and ahead of the front to weaken/decay as it moves into and across the area this evening and tonight and maintenance of deep convection appears unlikely. Cannot completely rule out a rumble of thunder over the NW Piedmont this eve, but chances continue to decrease. Rainfall totals will generally be a tenth of an inch or less across the area. High temperatures should top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. The cold front will move across the area this eve/tonight and be off the Carolina coast by Thu morn. Cool high pressure will gradually build ewd into the region in Thu/Thu night.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
253 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Updated Aviation discussion.
KEY MESSAGES
As of 250 AM Wednesday...
1) A broken line of decaying showers is expected to move across the area this evening into tonight.
2) Hot, seasonably moist/humid, and with limited (slight chances of) diurnal convection this weekend through the middle of next week
DISCUSSION
As of 250 AM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A broken line of decaying showers is expected to move across the area this evening into tonight.
A srn stream s/w will shift off the Southeast US coast this morning then lift newd off the East Coast through tonight. Meanwhile, a nrn stream s/w will track across the region, helping to amplify/sharpen the parent trough as a low closes off within it over srn Ontario. The trough will generally remain over the East Coast on Thu while the low drops sewd across the nrn mid-Atlantic, both shifting offshore Thu night/Fri. At the surface, as the high shifts farther offshore today, the ridge extending wwd into the region between a low moving off the Southeast US coast and a cold front approaching from the NW will gradually weaken. Low-level moisture recovery still appears to be limited ahead of the cold front arrival this evening, which will greatly limit instability across the area. With that in mind, as noted in the previous discussion, the line of convection along and ahead of the front to weaken/decay as it moves into and across the area this evening and tonight and maintenance of deep convection appears unlikely. Cannot completely rule out a rumble of thunder over the NW Piedmont this eve, but chances continue to decrease. Rainfall totals will generally be a tenth of an inch or less across the area. High temperatures should top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. The cold front will move across the area this eve/tonight and be off the Carolina coast by Thu morn. Cool high pressure will gradually build ewd into the region in Thu/Thu night.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
220 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening along/west of the Blue Ridge in Virginia into West Virginia.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Rain showers and thunderstorms likely for Wednesday.
2. Mid-level disturbance offers another chance of rain for this weekend.
3. Warm and humid trend followed by a chance of rain by the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Rain showers and thunderstorms likely for Wednesday.
Rain and scattered thunderstorms are still likely for today (Wednesday) as a cold front pushes through. Recent CAM guidance suggests there may be more than one line of precipitation which will provide most of the region a good chance of rain. Rain amounts, however, will not be much as areas that are lucky to get more than once dose (most likely in WV and higher elevations) may receive only up to 0.25" of rain. The rain may arrive as early as 10AM for the WV counties. Dew points only in the 50s will prevent any serious instability with CAPE struggling to get above 750 J/kg. The mountains, other than the cold front, will be doing a lot of the heavy lifting with storm initiation. Still, lapse rates of around 6.5 C/km and bulk shear of 40-50 kts will promote the development of some storms capable of damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center recently introduced a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge for today due to this threat. The precipitation will likely be out of the area by midnight tonight.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
220 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening along/west of the Blue Ridge in Virginia into West Virginia.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Rain showers and thunderstorms likely for Wednesday.
2. Mid-level disturbance offers another chance of rain for this weekend.
3. Warm and humid trend followed by a chance of rain by the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Rain showers and thunderstorms likely for Wednesday.
Rain and scattered thunderstorms are still likely for today (Wednesday) as a cold front pushes through. Recent CAM guidance suggests there may be more than one line of precipitation which will provide most of the region a good chance of rain. Rain amounts, however, will not be much as areas that are lucky to get more than once dose (most likely in WV and higher elevations) may receive only up to 0.25" of rain. The rain may arrive as early as 10AM for the WV counties. Dew points only in the 50s will prevent any serious instability with CAPE struggling to get above 750 J/kg. The mountains, other than the cold front, will be doing a lot of the heavy lifting with storm initiation. Still, lapse rates of around 6.5 C/km and bulk shear of 40-50 kts will promote the development of some storms capable of damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center recently introduced a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge for today due to this threat. The precipitation will likely be out of the area by midnight tonight.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
220 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening along/west of the Blue Ridge in Virginia into West Virginia.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Rain showers and thunderstorms likely for Wednesday.
2. Mid-level disturbance offers another chance of rain for this weekend.
3. Warm and humid trend followed by a chance of rain by the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Rain showers and thunderstorms likely for Wednesday.
Rain and scattered thunderstorms are still likely for today (Wednesday) as a cold front pushes through. Recent CAM guidance suggests there may be more than one line of precipitation which will provide most of the region a good chance of rain. Rain amounts, however, will not be much as areas that are lucky to get more than once dose (most likely in WV and higher elevations) may receive only up to 0.25" of rain. The rain may arrive as early as 10AM for the WV counties. Dew points only in the 50s will prevent any serious instability with CAPE struggling to get above 750 J/kg. The mountains, other than the cold front, will be doing a lot of the heavy lifting with storm initiation. Still, lapse rates of around 6.5 C/km and bulk shear of 40-50 kts will promote the development of some storms capable of damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center recently introduced a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge for today due to this threat. The precipitation will likely be out of the area by midnight tonight.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
344 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026MARINE
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the bay and Tidal rivers. The bay is in effect now and last through tonight, while the rivers go into effect this afternoon and last through this evening.
- Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected for most of the day Thursday, with another chance of advisories overnight Thursday in the bay.
- Benign marine conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week with primarily southerly winds.
Early morning weather analysis shows high pressure off the coast of the Outer Banks. The pressure gradient from the high pressure and approaching cold front remains weak over the area at this moment and is only leading to winds out of the S around 10 to 15kt with some gusts approaching 20kt. Seas at this time are between 1-2ft across the bay and 2-3ft across the ocean. Small Craft Advisories are in effect now for the bay due to the marginal gusts up to 20kt. However, expect conditions to worsen later today.
Through the day the pressure gradient is expected to tighten as the cold front approaches the area. This will lead to stronger SSE early this afternoon. Winds across the bay are expected to increase to 20- 25kt with gusts nearing 30kt. Across the tidal rivers winds increase to 10-15kt with gusts nearing 20kt. Small Craft Advisories go into effect for the tidal rivers early this afternoon. While across the ocean winds will increase to 15-20kt with gusts nearing 25kt north of Cape Charles. While south of the Capes winds are expected to be between 10-15kt with gusts nearing 20kt. With the winds increasing this afternoon waves will also increase to 3-4ft across the bay and 4 to potentially 5ft across the ocean. Will note the best chance for 5ft seas is north of Cape Charles. For this forecast update no SCA have been issued for the ocean waters north of Cape Charles. This is due to the the 25kt gusts and 5ft seas being marginal and for a short period of time. By early tonight winds will decrease as the cold front is pushing through the area and winds will shift to the NW. Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected tonight into Thursday. However, there could be a brief period of SCA conditions across the bay mid Thursday morning. Will note that these conditions will be brief and the Sub-SCA conditions will last through much of Thursday. The next best chance for solid SCA come Thursday night into Friday AM across the bay as a second push of drier air moves into the area. Winds could gusts between 20-25kt during this time period. After Friday AM, mainly benign marine conditions are forecasted for with winds primarily out of the S to SW.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
344 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026MARINE
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the bay and Tidal rivers. The bay is in effect now and last through tonight, while the rivers go into effect this afternoon and last through this evening.
- Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected for most of the day Thursday, with another chance of advisories overnight Thursday in the bay.
- Benign marine conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week with primarily southerly winds.
Early morning weather analysis shows high pressure off the coast of the Outer Banks. The pressure gradient from the high pressure and approaching cold front remains weak over the area at this moment and is only leading to winds out of the S around 10 to 15kt with some gusts approaching 20kt. Seas at this time are between 1-2ft across the bay and 2-3ft across the ocean. Small Craft Advisories are in effect now for the bay due to the marginal gusts up to 20kt. However, expect conditions to worsen later today.
Through the day the pressure gradient is expected to tighten as the cold front approaches the area. This will lead to stronger SSE early this afternoon. Winds across the bay are expected to increase to 20- 25kt with gusts nearing 30kt. Across the tidal rivers winds increase to 10-15kt with gusts nearing 20kt. Small Craft Advisories go into effect for the tidal rivers early this afternoon. While across the ocean winds will increase to 15-20kt with gusts nearing 25kt north of Cape Charles. While south of the Capes winds are expected to be between 10-15kt with gusts nearing 20kt. With the winds increasing this afternoon waves will also increase to 3-4ft across the bay and 4 to potentially 5ft across the ocean. Will note the best chance for 5ft seas is north of Cape Charles. For this forecast update no SCA have been issued for the ocean waters north of Cape Charles. This is due to the the 25kt gusts and 5ft seas being marginal and for a short period of time. By early tonight winds will decrease as the cold front is pushing through the area and winds will shift to the NW. Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected tonight into Thursday. However, there could be a brief period of SCA conditions across the bay mid Thursday morning. Will note that these conditions will be brief and the Sub-SCA conditions will last through much of Thursday. The next best chance for solid SCA come Thursday night into Friday AM across the bay as a second push of drier air moves into the area. Winds could gusts between 20-25kt during this time period. After Friday AM, mainly benign marine conditions are forecasted for with winds primarily out of the S to SW.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
344 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026MARINE
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the bay and Tidal rivers. The bay is in effect now and last through tonight, while the rivers go into effect this afternoon and last through this evening.
- Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected for most of the day Thursday, with another chance of advisories overnight Thursday in the bay.
- Benign marine conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week with primarily southerly winds.
Early morning weather analysis shows high pressure off the coast of the Outer Banks. The pressure gradient from the high pressure and approaching cold front remains weak over the area at this moment and is only leading to winds out of the S around 10 to 15kt with some gusts approaching 20kt. Seas at this time are between 1-2ft across the bay and 2-3ft across the ocean. Small Craft Advisories are in effect now for the bay due to the marginal gusts up to 20kt. However, expect conditions to worsen later today.
Through the day the pressure gradient is expected to tighten as the cold front approaches the area. This will lead to stronger SSE early this afternoon. Winds across the bay are expected to increase to 20- 25kt with gusts nearing 30kt. Across the tidal rivers winds increase to 10-15kt with gusts nearing 20kt. Small Craft Advisories go into effect for the tidal rivers early this afternoon. While across the ocean winds will increase to 15-20kt with gusts nearing 25kt north of Cape Charles. While south of the Capes winds are expected to be between 10-15kt with gusts nearing 20kt. With the winds increasing this afternoon waves will also increase to 3-4ft across the bay and 4 to potentially 5ft across the ocean. Will note the best chance for 5ft seas is north of Cape Charles. For this forecast update no SCA have been issued for the ocean waters north of Cape Charles. This is due to the the 25kt gusts and 5ft seas being marginal and for a short period of time. By early tonight winds will decrease as the cold front is pushing through the area and winds will shift to the NW. Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected tonight into Thursday. However, there could be a brief period of SCA conditions across the bay mid Thursday morning. Will note that these conditions will be brief and the Sub-SCA conditions will last through much of Thursday. The next best chance for solid SCA come Thursday night into Friday AM across the bay as a second push of drier air moves into the area. Winds could gusts between 20-25kt during this time period. After Friday AM, mainly benign marine conditions are forecasted for with winds primarily out of the S to SW.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
344 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
- Rain chances and rainfall amounts tonight have continued to trend down, especially for SE VA/NE NC.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A cold front brings a chance for showers and possibly a rumble of thunder late today through tonight.
3) Cool Thursday, then warming up to above average temps for the weekend into the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front brings a chance for showers and possibly a rumble of thunder late today through tonight.
Early morning WX analysis indicates zonal flow aloft with a trough N of the Great Lakes. Sfc low pressure is located near Lake Huron, and is starting to occlude, with sfc high pressure well off the mid-Atlantic and Carolina coast. There is also an area of low pressure across Florida. Southerly low level flow has kept temperatures mostly in the 50s early this morning (much warmer than 24 hrs ago when they were in the 30s and 40s). For today, the upper trough is forecast to dive SE, with a cold front approaching the local area from the west late in the day, and crossing the region overnight into early Thursday. The models continue to trend drier with the pattern over the next 24 hrs, perhaps being robbed of moisture from the sfc low ejecting NE from Florida. Overall, expect a dry and breezy day today under a mostly sunny sky through mid aftn, with increasing clouds across the NW 1/2 of the area late. S winds are expected to gust to 25-30 mph this aftn, highest across the eastern shore. Instability is basically zero this aftn with dew pts expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s. Highs today will mostly be in the mid to upper 70s, with a few spots potentially reaching 80F. The latest HRRR and most of the other models show very limited potential for any tstms locally, but will maintain a slight chc mention this evening for the NW portions of the area to about the north 1/2 of metro RIC. This is likely to just be a rumble of thunder if if does occur, and no severe or even strong storms are expected. PoPs have been dropped to chc (50% or lower) for roughly the Se 1/2 of the area, with 60-80% PoPs this evening, lingering into early Thu AM focused across the north. Even in these areas, only ~0.10" is expected, with perhaps up to 0.25" if any briefly heavier showers. Of note, a few of the models show a brief uptick in precip chances around daybreak Thursday across the SE (associated with the shortwave pushing through), but confidence in this precise scenario is low so PoPs will only be 20-30% Thursday morning in the SE. LOws overnight into Thursday will range from the upper 40s/around 50F NW to the upper 50s SE.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
344 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
- Rain chances and rainfall amounts tonight have continued to trend down, especially for SE VA/NE NC.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A cold front brings a chance for showers and possibly a rumble of thunder late today through tonight.
3) Cool Thursday, then warming up to above average temps for the weekend into the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front brings a chance for showers and possibly a rumble of thunder late today through tonight.
Early morning WX analysis indicates zonal flow aloft with a trough N of the Great Lakes. Sfc low pressure is located near Lake Huron, and is starting to occlude, with sfc high pressure well off the mid-Atlantic and Carolina coast. There is also an area of low pressure across Florida. Southerly low level flow has kept temperatures mostly in the 50s early this morning (much warmer than 24 hrs ago when they were in the 30s and 40s). For today, the upper trough is forecast to dive SE, with a cold front approaching the local area from the west late in the day, and crossing the region overnight into early Thursday. The models continue to trend drier with the pattern over the next 24 hrs, perhaps being robbed of moisture from the sfc low ejecting NE from Florida. Overall, expect a dry and breezy day today under a mostly sunny sky through mid aftn, with increasing clouds across the NW 1/2 of the area late. S winds are expected to gust to 25-30 mph this aftn, highest across the eastern shore. Instability is basically zero this aftn with dew pts expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s. Highs today will mostly be in the mid to upper 70s, with a few spots potentially reaching 80F. The latest HRRR and most of the other models show very limited potential for any tstms locally, but will maintain a slight chc mention this evening for the NW portions of the area to about the north 1/2 of metro RIC. This is likely to just be a rumble of thunder if if does occur, and no severe or even strong storms are expected. PoPs have been dropped to chc (50% or lower) for roughly the Se 1/2 of the area, with 60-80% PoPs this evening, lingering into early Thu AM focused across the north. Even in these areas, only ~0.10" is expected, with perhaps up to 0.25" if any briefly heavier showers. Of note, a few of the models show a brief uptick in precip chances around daybreak Thursday across the SE (associated with the shortwave pushing through), but confidence in this precise scenario is low so PoPs will only be 20-30% Thursday morning in the SE. LOws overnight into Thursday will range from the upper 40s/around 50F NW to the upper 50s SE.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
344 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
- Rain chances and rainfall amounts tonight have continued to trend down, especially for SE VA/NE NC.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A cold front brings a chance for showers and possibly a rumble of thunder late today through tonight.
3) Cool Thursday, then warming up to above average temps for the weekend into the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front brings a chance for showers and possibly a rumble of thunder late today through tonight.
Early morning WX analysis indicates zonal flow aloft with a trough N of the Great Lakes. Sfc low pressure is located near Lake Huron, and is starting to occlude, with sfc high pressure well off the mid-Atlantic and Carolina coast. There is also an area of low pressure across Florida. Southerly low level flow has kept temperatures mostly in the 50s early this morning (much warmer than 24 hrs ago when they were in the 30s and 40s). For today, the upper trough is forecast to dive SE, with a cold front approaching the local area from the west late in the day, and crossing the region overnight into early Thursday. The models continue to trend drier with the pattern over the next 24 hrs, perhaps being robbed of moisture from the sfc low ejecting NE from Florida. Overall, expect a dry and breezy day today under a mostly sunny sky through mid aftn, with increasing clouds across the NW 1/2 of the area late. S winds are expected to gust to 25-30 mph this aftn, highest across the eastern shore. Instability is basically zero this aftn with dew pts expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s. Highs today will mostly be in the mid to upper 70s, with a few spots potentially reaching 80F. The latest HRRR and most of the other models show very limited potential for any tstms locally, but will maintain a slight chc mention this evening for the NW portions of the area to about the north 1/2 of metro RIC. This is likely to just be a rumble of thunder if if does occur, and no severe or even strong storms are expected. PoPs have been dropped to chc (50% or lower) for roughly the Se 1/2 of the area, with 60-80% PoPs this evening, lingering into early Thu AM focused across the north. Even in these areas, only ~0.10" is expected, with perhaps up to 0.25" if any briefly heavier showers. Of note, a few of the models show a brief uptick in precip chances around daybreak Thursday across the SE (associated with the shortwave pushing through), but confidence in this precise scenario is low so PoPs will only be 20-30% Thursday morning in the SE. LOws overnight into Thursday will range from the upper 40s/around 50F NW to the upper 50s SE.
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From NC’s Weather Authority on FB: The week keeps moving along. Happy Wednesday, North Carolina! It is a little chilly this morning, but once the sun comes up, we will warm up nicely. Ahead of our next cold front, a nice southerly flow will get us up in the 70s and low 80s for most of the state under partly to mostly sunny skies. Later this afternoon and evening, some clouds will increase as the cold front moves in. This front will have very limited moisture, but a couple of isolated showers will push east this evening into the overnight. A few lucky folks will get some rain; the rest are SOL.
Unfortunately, the next 7 days will have little to no rain across North Carolina!
-Ethan
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From NC’s Weather Authority on FB: The week keeps moving along. Happy Wednesday, North Carolina! It is a little chilly this morning, but once the sun comes up, we will warm up nicely. Ahead of our next cold front, a nice southerly flow will get us up in the 70s and low 80s for most of the state under partly to mostly sunny skies. Later this afternoon and evening, some clouds will increase as the cold front moves in. This front will have very limited moisture, but a couple of isolated showers will push east this evening into the overnight. A few lucky folks will get some rain; the rest are SOL.
Unfortunately, the next 7 days will have little to no rain across North Carolina!
-Ethan
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From NC’s Weather Authority on FB: The week keeps moving along. Happy Wednesday, North Carolina! It is a little chilly this morning, but once the sun comes up, we will warm up nicely. Ahead of our next cold front, a nice southerly flow will get us up in the 70s and low 80s for most of the state under partly to mostly sunny skies. Later this afternoon and evening, some clouds will increase as the cold front moves in. This front will have very limited moisture, but a couple of isolated showers will push east this evening into the overnight. A few lucky folks will get some rain; the rest are SOL.
Unfortunately, the next 7 days will have little to no rain across North Carolina!
-Ethan
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
627 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Rain chances have trended slightly lower for Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Dry conditions continue today followed by another weak cold front that may bring a few more showers and thunderstorms to the western Carolinas Wednesday. Dry and briefly cooler Thursday and Thursday night, followed by a warming trend Friday through the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Dry conditions continue today followed by another weak cold front that may bring a few more showers and thunderstorms to the western Carolinas Wednesday. Dry and briefly cooler Thursday and Thursday night, followed by a warming trend Friday through the weekend.
A weak southern stream shortwave slides along the Gulf Coast today with any associated precipitation displaced well south of the area in the vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary across far southern Georgia into Florida. The Southern Appalachians will remain within a cool and dry pattern following yesterdays frontal passage. By Wednesday, a northern stream trough drops out of the Midwest/Great Lakes and across the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. Modest height falls will overspread the region as the trough attempts to transition from a positive tilt to neutral. Despite sufficient forcing for ascent, this system will be somewhat moisture starved as the poor trough orientation will not be as conducive for moisture return from the Gulf or Atlantic ahead of the associated frontal boundary. Nonetheless, a narrow band of moisture pooling should reside ahead of the boundary with a band of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two approaching the mountains Wednesday afternoon. The front slides east through the evening, but coverage of showers and storms east of the mountains remains uncertain with only isolated to widely scattered precipitation expected at this time. Unfortunately, any rain that falls with this fast moving system will be negligible and won`t help to noticeably alleviate ongoing drought conditions.
Thereafter, upper ridging builds across the region and gradually flattens by the weekend with rising heights. This will foster a return to warm and dry conditions with temperatures climbing back into the upper 80s to low 90s by the weekend. A deep western trough is progged to dig over the Great Basin through the weekend with broad southwest flow draped across much of the Great Plains. Several embedded perturbations within this flow regime may send a couple rounds of convection across the Tennessee Valley and towards the area, but confidence in this is fairly low at this time range.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
627 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Rain chances have trended slightly lower for Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Dry conditions continue today followed by another weak cold front that may bring a few more showers and thunderstorms to the western Carolinas Wednesday. Dry and briefly cooler Thursday and Thursday night, followed by a warming trend Friday through the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Dry conditions continue today followed by another weak cold front that may bring a few more showers and thunderstorms to the western Carolinas Wednesday. Dry and briefly cooler Thursday and Thursday night, followed by a warming trend Friday through the weekend.
A weak southern stream shortwave slides along the Gulf Coast today with any associated precipitation displaced well south of the area in the vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary across far southern Georgia into Florida. The Southern Appalachians will remain within a cool and dry pattern following yesterdays frontal passage. By Wednesday, a northern stream trough drops out of the Midwest/Great Lakes and across the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. Modest height falls will overspread the region as the trough attempts to transition from a positive tilt to neutral. Despite sufficient forcing for ascent, this system will be somewhat moisture starved as the poor trough orientation will not be as conducive for moisture return from the Gulf or Atlantic ahead of the associated frontal boundary. Nonetheless, a narrow band of moisture pooling should reside ahead of the boundary with a band of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two approaching the mountains Wednesday afternoon. The front slides east through the evening, but coverage of showers and storms east of the mountains remains uncertain with only isolated to widely scattered precipitation expected at this time. Unfortunately, any rain that falls with this fast moving system will be negligible and won`t help to noticeably alleviate ongoing drought conditions.
Thereafter, upper ridging builds across the region and gradually flattens by the weekend with rising heights. This will foster a return to warm and dry conditions with temperatures climbing back into the upper 80s to low 90s by the weekend. A deep western trough is progged to dig over the Great Basin through the weekend with broad southwest flow draped across much of the Great Plains. Several embedded perturbations within this flow regime may send a couple rounds of convection across the Tennessee Valley and towards the area, but confidence in this is fairly low at this time range.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
627 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Rain chances have trended slightly lower for Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Dry conditions continue today followed by another weak cold front that may bring a few more showers and thunderstorms to the western Carolinas Wednesday. Dry and briefly cooler Thursday and Thursday night, followed by a warming trend Friday through the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Dry conditions continue today followed by another weak cold front that may bring a few more showers and thunderstorms to the western Carolinas Wednesday. Dry and briefly cooler Thursday and Thursday night, followed by a warming trend Friday through the weekend.
A weak southern stream shortwave slides along the Gulf Coast today with any associated precipitation displaced well south of the area in the vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary across far southern Georgia into Florida. The Southern Appalachians will remain within a cool and dry pattern following yesterdays frontal passage. By Wednesday, a northern stream trough drops out of the Midwest/Great Lakes and across the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. Modest height falls will overspread the region as the trough attempts to transition from a positive tilt to neutral. Despite sufficient forcing for ascent, this system will be somewhat moisture starved as the poor trough orientation will not be as conducive for moisture return from the Gulf or Atlantic ahead of the associated frontal boundary. Nonetheless, a narrow band of moisture pooling should reside ahead of the boundary with a band of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two approaching the mountains Wednesday afternoon. The front slides east through the evening, but coverage of showers and storms east of the mountains remains uncertain with only isolated to widely scattered precipitation expected at this time. Unfortunately, any rain that falls with this fast moving system will be negligible and won`t help to noticeably alleviate ongoing drought conditions.
Thereafter, upper ridging builds across the region and gradually flattens by the weekend with rising heights. This will foster a return to warm and dry conditions with temperatures climbing back into the upper 80s to low 90s by the weekend. A deep western trough is progged to dig over the Great Basin through the weekend with broad southwest flow draped across much of the Great Plains. Several embedded perturbations within this flow regime may send a couple rounds of convection across the Tennessee Valley and towards the area, but confidence in this is fairly low at this time range.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
631 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Dense Fog Advisory issued until 9 AM for portions of the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain.
KEY MESSAGES
As of 300 AM Tuesday...
1) Dense Fog Advisory issued until 9 AM for portions of the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain.
2) A chance of showers/isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.
3) A typical, summertime pattern will develop across the South Atlantic states later this weekend through (at least) early next week.
DISCUSSION
As of 620 AM Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Dense Fog Advisory issued until 9 AM for portions of the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain.
Dense fog has developed across portions of the nrn Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain. Patchy dense fog is possible outside of the advisory area. Conditions should improve by 9 AM. Folks along the NC/VA border should be prepared for possible slower travel during the morning commute.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ007>011- 022>028-039>041-074>076.