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#GSP #SCwx #GAwx
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop by this afternoon in advance of a cold front. Isolated heavy rainfall can be expected, with localize nuisance flooding possible. More of a steady rainfall is expected on Sunday, with continued potential for isolated heavy rainfall. -
#GSP #SCwx #GAwx
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop by this afternoon in advance of a cold front. Isolated heavy rainfall can be expected, with localize nuisance flooding possible. More of a steady rainfall is expected on Sunday, with continued potential for isolated heavy rainfall. -
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
229 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Temperatures have trended slightly downward for today and thunderstorm chances increased. The overall rainfall amounts for the event have trended downward.
Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Showers and thunderstorms will become numerous this afternoon and evening along and ahead of a front dropping down from the north, followed by widespread rain overnight and again Sunday afternoon and evening. The combination of events will raise the threat for excessive rainfall that could result in some localized flooding through Sunday night. 2. Dry from Monday afternoon onward. Cool temperatures return for the middle of next week, followed by a steady warmup late in the week.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Showers and thunderstorms will become numerous this afternoon and evening along and ahead of a front dropping down from the north, followed by widespread rain overnight and again Sunday afternoon and evening. The combination of events will raise the threat for excessive rainfall that could result in some localized flooding through Sunday night.
A complex rainfall scenario is expected to develop across the forecast area through the weekend with several factors to consider, the combination of which could become favorable for excessive rain and increased flooding risk. Fortunately, we begin the event on a recent dry streak.
The initial, more convective, phase should develop this afternoon as a cold front currently laid out across the TN Valley/Mid-Atlantic gets driven southward in back-door fashion by a sfc high moving east from the Great Lakes to New England today. The front will probably not reach the fcst area until the afternoon, such that at least the southern half of the forecast area should be able to warm up into the lower 80s and destabilize with up to 1500 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE in a warm advection flow. By afternoon, the back door front will impinge upon this light SW low level flow and should trigger numerous showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain looks like the biggest threat from this initial round of activity as the warm advection flow lifts a remnant plume of deeper sub-tropical moisture northward into the Upstate/Piedmont. Precipitable water should rise above 2 inches in this plume, up near the climatological maximum. The concern is that the opposing NE flow behind the backdoor front and the SW flow at 850 mb could result in an effective slow storm movement at some point this evening in some location, probably east of the mtns. The 00Z HREF shows some 6-hr rainfall potential above 2 inches. This might not be enough to cause flooding outside of urban areas, but it could set the stage for flooding in the second round. However, if the frontal boundary should stall, flood problems will ramp up overnight. The threat for severe storms through Saturday night appears relatively low owing to poor lapse rates.
Behind the front, a cold air damming wedge will set up east of the Blue Ridge and will persist through Sunday with temperatures remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Most of the CAMs suggest something of a lull in the action Sunday morning before deeper and better forcing arrive ahead of a shearing short wave moving in from the west in the afternoon. This second phase will be more dynamically forced and will have the potential to produce another inch or two of rain in some spots. Locations that get heavy rain in both phases could see flooding issues. That being said, there is too much uncertainty regarding what locations have the best potential, and the overall QPF has trended downward on this forecast cycle. Thus, a Flood Watch was not entertained…
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
229 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Temperatures have trended slightly downward for today and thunderstorm chances increased. The overall rainfall amounts for the event have trended downward.
Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Showers and thunderstorms will become numerous this afternoon and evening along and ahead of a front dropping down from the north, followed by widespread rain overnight and again Sunday afternoon and evening. The combination of events will raise the threat for excessive rainfall that could result in some localized flooding through Sunday night. 2. Dry from Monday afternoon onward. Cool temperatures return for the middle of next week, followed by a steady warmup late in the week.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Showers and thunderstorms will become numerous this afternoon and evening along and ahead of a front dropping down from the north, followed by widespread rain overnight and again Sunday afternoon and evening. The combination of events will raise the threat for excessive rainfall that could result in some localized flooding through Sunday night.
A complex rainfall scenario is expected to develop across the forecast area through the weekend with several factors to consider, the combination of which could become favorable for excessive rain and increased flooding risk. Fortunately, we begin the event on a recent dry streak.
The initial, more convective, phase should develop this afternoon as a cold front currently laid out across the TN Valley/Mid-Atlantic gets driven southward in back-door fashion by a sfc high moving east from the Great Lakes to New England today. The front will probably not reach the fcst area until the afternoon, such that at least the southern half of the forecast area should be able to warm up into the lower 80s and destabilize with up to 1500 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE in a warm advection flow. By afternoon, the back door front will impinge upon this light SW low level flow and should trigger numerous showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain looks like the biggest threat from this initial round of activity as the warm advection flow lifts a remnant plume of deeper sub-tropical moisture northward into the Upstate/Piedmont. Precipitable water should rise above 2 inches in this plume, up near the climatological maximum. The concern is that the opposing NE flow behind the backdoor front and the SW flow at 850 mb could result in an effective slow storm movement at some point this evening in some location, probably east of the mtns. The 00Z HREF shows some 6-hr rainfall potential above 2 inches. This might not be enough to cause flooding outside of urban areas, but it could set the stage for flooding in the second round. However, if the frontal boundary should stall, flood problems will ramp up overnight. The threat for severe storms through Saturday night appears relatively low owing to poor lapse rates.
Behind the front, a cold air damming wedge will set up east of the Blue Ridge and will persist through Sunday with temperatures remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Most of the CAMs suggest something of a lull in the action Sunday morning before deeper and better forcing arrive ahead of a shearing short wave moving in from the west in the afternoon. This second phase will be more dynamically forced and will have the potential to produce another inch or two of rain in some spots. Locations that get heavy rain in both phases could see flooding issues. That being said, there is too much uncertainty regarding what locations have the best potential, and the overall QPF has trended downward on this forecast cycle. Thus, a Flood Watch was not entertained…
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
229 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Temperatures have trended slightly downward for today and thunderstorm chances increased. The overall rainfall amounts for the event have trended downward.
Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Showers and thunderstorms will become numerous this afternoon and evening along and ahead of a front dropping down from the north, followed by widespread rain overnight and again Sunday afternoon and evening. The combination of events will raise the threat for excessive rainfall that could result in some localized flooding through Sunday night. 2. Dry from Monday afternoon onward. Cool temperatures return for the middle of next week, followed by a steady warmup late in the week.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Showers and thunderstorms will become numerous this afternoon and evening along and ahead of a front dropping down from the north, followed by widespread rain overnight and again Sunday afternoon and evening. The combination of events will raise the threat for excessive rainfall that could result in some localized flooding through Sunday night.
A complex rainfall scenario is expected to develop across the forecast area through the weekend with several factors to consider, the combination of which could become favorable for excessive rain and increased flooding risk. Fortunately, we begin the event on a recent dry streak.
The initial, more convective, phase should develop this afternoon as a cold front currently laid out across the TN Valley/Mid-Atlantic gets driven southward in back-door fashion by a sfc high moving east from the Great Lakes to New England today. The front will probably not reach the fcst area until the afternoon, such that at least the southern half of the forecast area should be able to warm up into the lower 80s and destabilize with up to 1500 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE in a warm advection flow. By afternoon, the back door front will impinge upon this light SW low level flow and should trigger numerous showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain looks like the biggest threat from this initial round of activity as the warm advection flow lifts a remnant plume of deeper sub-tropical moisture northward into the Upstate/Piedmont. Precipitable water should rise above 2 inches in this plume, up near the climatological maximum. The concern is that the opposing NE flow behind the backdoor front and the SW flow at 850 mb could result in an effective slow storm movement at some point this evening in some location, probably east of the mtns. The 00Z HREF shows some 6-hr rainfall potential above 2 inches. This might not be enough to cause flooding outside of urban areas, but it could set the stage for flooding in the second round. However, if the frontal boundary should stall, flood problems will ramp up overnight. The threat for severe storms through Saturday night appears relatively low owing to poor lapse rates.
Behind the front, a cold air damming wedge will set up east of the Blue Ridge and will persist through Sunday with temperatures remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Most of the CAMs suggest something of a lull in the action Sunday morning before deeper and better forcing arrive ahead of a shearing short wave moving in from the west in the afternoon. This second phase will be more dynamically forced and will have the potential to produce another inch or two of rain in some spots. Locations that get heavy rain in both phases could see flooding issues. That being said, there is too much uncertainty regarding what locations have the best potential, and the overall QPF has trended downward on this forecast cycle. Thus, a Flood Watch was not entertained…
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
229 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Temperatures have trended slightly downward for today and thunderstorm chances increased. The overall rainfall amounts for the event have trended downward.
Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Showers and thunderstorms will become numerous this afternoon and evening along and ahead of a front dropping down from the north, followed by widespread rain overnight and again Sunday afternoon and evening. The combination of events will raise the threat for excessive rainfall that could result in some localized flooding through Sunday night. 2. Dry from Monday afternoon onward. Cool temperatures return for the middle of next week, followed by a steady warmup late in the week.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Showers and thunderstorms will become numerous this afternoon and evening along and ahead of a front dropping down from the north, followed by widespread rain overnight and again Sunday afternoon and evening. The combination of events will raise the threat for excessive rainfall that could result in some localized flooding through Sunday night.
A complex rainfall scenario is expected to develop across the forecast area through the weekend with several factors to consider, the combination of which could become favorable for excessive rain and increased flooding risk. Fortunately, we begin the event on a recent dry streak.
The initial, more convective, phase should develop this afternoon as a cold front currently laid out across the TN Valley/Mid-Atlantic gets driven southward in back-door fashion by a sfc high moving east from the Great Lakes to New England today. The front will probably not reach the fcst area until the afternoon, such that at least the southern half of the forecast area should be able to warm up into the lower 80s and destabilize with up to 1500 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE in a warm advection flow. By afternoon, the back door front will impinge upon this light SW low level flow and should trigger numerous showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain looks like the biggest threat from this initial round of activity as the warm advection flow lifts a remnant plume of deeper sub-tropical moisture northward into the Upstate/Piedmont. Precipitable water should rise above 2 inches in this plume, up near the climatological maximum. The concern is that the opposing NE flow behind the backdoor front and the SW flow at 850 mb could result in an effective slow storm movement at some point this evening in some location, probably east of the mtns. The 00Z HREF shows some 6-hr rainfall potential above 2 inches. This might not be enough to cause flooding outside of urban areas, but it could set the stage for flooding in the second round. However, if the frontal boundary should stall, flood problems will ramp up overnight. The threat for severe storms through Saturday night appears relatively low owing to poor lapse rates.
Behind the front, a cold air damming wedge will set up east of the Blue Ridge and will persist through Sunday with temperatures remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Most of the CAMs suggest something of a lull in the action Sunday morning before deeper and better forcing arrive ahead of a shearing short wave moving in from the west in the afternoon. This second phase will be more dynamically forced and will have the potential to produce another inch or two of rain in some spots. Locations that get heavy rain in both phases could see flooding issues. That being said, there is too much uncertainty regarding what locations have the best potential, and the overall QPF has trended downward on this forecast cycle. Thus, a Flood Watch was not entertained…
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
631 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026KEY MESSAGES
1. Dry with above normal temperatures today. An isolated thunderstorm is possible over the Smokies this evening and overnight. 2. At least a A Marginal Risk of excessive rain on Saturday and Sunday, which could lead to increased potential for localized flooding. However, signals are mixed yielding low confidence. 3. Cool and dry starting Tuesday, with a warm up back to normal by the end of the week. There will be a small chance of frost in some mountain locations early Wednesday morning.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Dry with above normal temperatures today. An isolated thunderstorm is possible over the Smokies this evening and overnight.
One last seasonally warm and dry day is expected, courtesy of high pressure at the sfc and aloft centered off the coast of the Carolinas. The ridge should allow for temps to climb a degree or two warmer than Thursday, so highs in the 85 to 90 degree range are a reasonable expectation. This would be on the order of ten degrees above normal, but nowhere near records. Alas, the upper anticyclone should be on a weakening trend by the end of the day as it drifts to the south and flattens. A few showers or an isolated thunderstorm could develop this evening over southwest NC and the Smokies, lasting into the overnight hours, but the chance of severe weather is very low.
Key message 2: At least a A Marginal Risk of excessive rain on Saturday and Sunday, which could lead to increased potential for localized flooding. However, signals are mixed yielding low confidence.
By Friday night, a shearing short wave will have flattened the old upper ridge and should be helping to drive a sfc cold front down from the north, but still north of the fcst area at around daybreak Saturday. It is the timing and the southward progression of this boundary that has injected uncertainty into the weekend forecast. A relatively weak sfc high moving from the Great Lakes to northern New England should act to push this boundary through as a back-door cold front on Saturday, but this might not happen until late in the day. The timing on the afternoon ensembles is still all over the place, but eventually there is confidence the boundary will move south of the fcst area by daybreak Sunday, setting up a weak cold air damming wedge for Sunday that drains into Monday. Either way, eventually precip will develop across the fcst area as deep moisture moves up from the south and forcing arrives from the north, so high precip probs are not really in doubt. Neither are the cool temperatures by Sunday, with widespread precip and cloud cover keeping temps on the order of 10 to 15 degrees cooler than normal. Quite the change in 48 hours over the weekend.
The main problem is the QPF and the potential for excessive rainfall. Pattern recognition supports the idea that we should have an elevated risk for heavy rain over the weekend. A weakness aloft between the big mid/upper anticyclone centered over the Four Corners region and the weakening ridge off the Southeast Coast will support a moisture plume from the Gulf and high precipitable water above 2 inches over at least the southern half of the forecast area. However, the plume of strong Integrated Vapor Transport currently curling around to our west and north is forecast to weaken considerably by the time it moves this far east. The mid/upper forcing is also not terribly impressive either, though low level forcing should be good assuming we have a full blown wedge east of the mtns by Sunday morning. The official forecast QPF creeps upward in many spots, while the model ensemble QPF creeps downward slightly in many spots. In short...mixed signals yield low confidence in rainfall amounts. In this case, the Marginal Risk on the Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for Saturday and Sunday look like a good starting point and once more of the event is covered by the CAMs, that will better inform the trend. In the mean time, we keep an eye on it.
By Monday morning, the wedge should be draining away as the parent high is lost with another weak front coming down from the NW. There could be some shower activity over the west side of the mtns with this front moving thru. Temps will be tricky, but a rebound back to normal is the most likely outcome...
@amyedge @czarbucks -
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
631 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026KEY MESSAGES
1. Dry with above normal temperatures today. An isolated thunderstorm is possible over the Smokies this evening and overnight. 2. At least a A Marginal Risk of excessive rain on Saturday and Sunday, which could lead to increased potential for localized flooding. However, signals are mixed yielding low confidence. 3. Cool and dry starting Tuesday, with a warm up back to normal by the end of the week. There will be a small chance of frost in some mountain locations early Wednesday morning.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Dry with above normal temperatures today. An isolated thunderstorm is possible over the Smokies this evening and overnight.
One last seasonally warm and dry day is expected, courtesy of high pressure at the sfc and aloft centered off the coast of the Carolinas. The ridge should allow for temps to climb a degree or two warmer than Thursday, so highs in the 85 to 90 degree range are a reasonable expectation. This would be on the order of ten degrees above normal, but nowhere near records. Alas, the upper anticyclone should be on a weakening trend by the end of the day as it drifts to the south and flattens. A few showers or an isolated thunderstorm could develop this evening over southwest NC and the Smokies, lasting into the overnight hours, but the chance of severe weather is very low.
Key message 2: At least a A Marginal Risk of excessive rain on Saturday and Sunday, which could lead to increased potential for localized flooding. However, signals are mixed yielding low confidence.
By Friday night, a shearing short wave will have flattened the old upper ridge and should be helping to drive a sfc cold front down from the north, but still north of the fcst area at around daybreak Saturday. It is the timing and the southward progression of this boundary that has injected uncertainty into the weekend forecast. A relatively weak sfc high moving from the Great Lakes to northern New England should act to push this boundary through as a back-door cold front on Saturday, but this might not happen until late in the day. The timing on the afternoon ensembles is still all over the place, but eventually there is confidence the boundary will move south of the fcst area by daybreak Sunday, setting up a weak cold air damming wedge for Sunday that drains into Monday. Either way, eventually precip will develop across the fcst area as deep moisture moves up from the south and forcing arrives from the north, so high precip probs are not really in doubt. Neither are the cool temperatures by Sunday, with widespread precip and cloud cover keeping temps on the order of 10 to 15 degrees cooler than normal. Quite the change in 48 hours over the weekend.
The main problem is the QPF and the potential for excessive rainfall. Pattern recognition supports the idea that we should have an elevated risk for heavy rain over the weekend. A weakness aloft between the big mid/upper anticyclone centered over the Four Corners region and the weakening ridge off the Southeast Coast will support a moisture plume from the Gulf and high precipitable water above 2 inches over at least the southern half of the forecast area. However, the plume of strong Integrated Vapor Transport currently curling around to our west and north is forecast to weaken considerably by the time it moves this far east. The mid/upper forcing is also not terribly impressive either, though low level forcing should be good assuming we have a full blown wedge east of the mtns by Sunday morning. The official forecast QPF creeps upward in many spots, while the model ensemble QPF creeps downward slightly in many spots. In short...mixed signals yield low confidence in rainfall amounts. In this case, the Marginal Risk on the Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for Saturday and Sunday look like a good starting point and once more of the event is covered by the CAMs, that will better inform the trend. In the mean time, we keep an eye on it.
By Monday morning, the wedge should be draining away as the parent high is lost with another weak front coming down from the NW. There could be some shower activity over the west side of the mtns with this front moving thru. Temps will be tricky, but a rebound back to normal is the most likely outcome...
@amyedge @czarbucks