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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
103 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes to the forecast with this package.
Updated the 06z aviation discussion.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Warm and dry conditions, outside of an isolated shower or storm, continue through the weekend. A wetter pattern may return next week.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Warm and dry conditions, outside of an isolated shower or storm, continue through the weekend. A wetter pattern may return next week.
An upper trough responsible for the overnight frontal passage will lift northeast into New England and then offshore today. At the same time, a sharp upper ridge will slide across the Mississippi Valley and into the Appalachians. Heights will rise in response, especially as a deep upstream trough digs down the West Coast and into the Great Basin. This will bring a warming trend back to the region with highs climbing back into the upper 80s to low 90s by Saturday. Southeast return flow starts to bring moisture back into the area this weekend and could foster the development of isolated to widely scattered showers and storms. The best chance may end up being along the Savannah River Valley on Sunday within a low-level convergence zone. Either way, coverage appears to be meager and won`t contribute much improvement to drought conditions, if at all. By early next week, the first in a series of troughs ejects across the Great Plains and into the Ohio Valley. Associated frontal boundary may make a run at the Southern Appalachians and bring a wetter pattern back into the area, especially should the front stall, but guidance is split as to how far east this may happen and how much precipitation may return.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
103 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes to the forecast with this package.
Updated the 06z aviation discussion.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Warm and dry conditions, outside of an isolated shower or storm, continue through the weekend. A wetter pattern may return next week.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Warm and dry conditions, outside of an isolated shower or storm, continue through the weekend. A wetter pattern may return next week.
An upper trough responsible for the overnight frontal passage will lift northeast into New England and then offshore today. At the same time, a sharp upper ridge will slide across the Mississippi Valley and into the Appalachians. Heights will rise in response, especially as a deep upstream trough digs down the West Coast and into the Great Basin. This will bring a warming trend back to the region with highs climbing back into the upper 80s to low 90s by Saturday. Southeast return flow starts to bring moisture back into the area this weekend and could foster the development of isolated to widely scattered showers and storms. The best chance may end up being along the Savannah River Valley on Sunday within a low-level convergence zone. Either way, coverage appears to be meager and won`t contribute much improvement to drought conditions, if at all. By early next week, the first in a series of troughs ejects across the Great Plains and into the Ohio Valley. Associated frontal boundary may make a run at the Southern Appalachians and bring a wetter pattern back into the area, especially should the front stall, but guidance is split as to how far east this may happen and how much precipitation may return.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
103 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes to the forecast with this package.
Updated the 06z aviation discussion.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Warm and dry conditions, outside of an isolated shower or storm, continue through the weekend. A wetter pattern may return next week.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Warm and dry conditions, outside of an isolated shower or storm, continue through the weekend. A wetter pattern may return next week.
An upper trough responsible for the overnight frontal passage will lift northeast into New England and then offshore today. At the same time, a sharp upper ridge will slide across the Mississippi Valley and into the Appalachians. Heights will rise in response, especially as a deep upstream trough digs down the West Coast and into the Great Basin. This will bring a warming trend back to the region with highs climbing back into the upper 80s to low 90s by Saturday. Southeast return flow starts to bring moisture back into the area this weekend and could foster the development of isolated to widely scattered showers and storms. The best chance may end up being along the Savannah River Valley on Sunday within a low-level convergence zone. Either way, coverage appears to be meager and won`t contribute much improvement to drought conditions, if at all. By early next week, the first in a series of troughs ejects across the Great Plains and into the Ohio Valley. Associated frontal boundary may make a run at the Southern Appalachians and bring a wetter pattern back into the area, especially should the front stall, but guidance is split as to how far east this may happen and how much precipitation may return.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
132 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes to the forecast with this forecast package.
Updated the 06z aviation forecast.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A cold front will bring spotty showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, this afternoon and evening. Warm and dry weather returns late week into the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: A cold front will bring spotty showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, this afternoon and evening. Warm and dry weather returns late week into the weekend.
Early morning water vapor imagery depicts a positively tilted trough sliding across the Midwest towards the Ohio Valley while surface analysis places an attendant cold front Chicago to central Missouri. Guidance is in good agreement that the trough will take on a neutral tilt as it swings across the Appalachians today with the cold front approaching the mountains this afternoon. The frontal boundary will push across the area late this afternoon through the evening hours. Forcing for ascent will be modest, but the antecedent airmass is rather dry with PWATs 1" or less. This will leave the system at least somewhat moisture starved with the trough orientation not supportive of sufficient moisture return prior to the arrival of the front. Nonetheless, a band of moisture pooling ahead of the boundary should support the development of a fast moving band of showers with a couple embedded thunderstorms over east Tennessee. This line will enter the mountains mid to late afternoon and across the foothills and Piedmont this evening. Coverage of showers, especially east of the mountains, may be rather limited with widely scattered showers. The front will also be moving fast enough that locations that do see rainfall aren`t expected to see any appreciable values that would ease drought conditions, unfortunately.
Thereafter, a tall upper ridge is progged to slide east across the Mississippi Valley and into the Appalachians where it will flatten late week into the weekend. This will support rising heights and warming temperatures with afternoon highs climbing back into the upper 80s to low 90s. At the same time, a deep western trough digs across the Great Basin through the weekend with broad downstream southwest flow draped across much of the Great Plains. Eventually, this may support some degree of moisture return back into the Southern Appalachians while embedded shortwave perturbations lift out of the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. The majority of any QPF response remains displaced off to our west and north, but isolated to widely scattered convection cannot be completely ruled out late in the period.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
132 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes to the forecast with this forecast package.
Updated the 06z aviation forecast.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A cold front will bring spotty showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, this afternoon and evening. Warm and dry weather returns late week into the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: A cold front will bring spotty showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, this afternoon and evening. Warm and dry weather returns late week into the weekend.
Early morning water vapor imagery depicts a positively tilted trough sliding across the Midwest towards the Ohio Valley while surface analysis places an attendant cold front Chicago to central Missouri. Guidance is in good agreement that the trough will take on a neutral tilt as it swings across the Appalachians today with the cold front approaching the mountains this afternoon. The frontal boundary will push across the area late this afternoon through the evening hours. Forcing for ascent will be modest, but the antecedent airmass is rather dry with PWATs 1" or less. This will leave the system at least somewhat moisture starved with the trough orientation not supportive of sufficient moisture return prior to the arrival of the front. Nonetheless, a band of moisture pooling ahead of the boundary should support the development of a fast moving band of showers with a couple embedded thunderstorms over east Tennessee. This line will enter the mountains mid to late afternoon and across the foothills and Piedmont this evening. Coverage of showers, especially east of the mountains, may be rather limited with widely scattered showers. The front will also be moving fast enough that locations that do see rainfall aren`t expected to see any appreciable values that would ease drought conditions, unfortunately.
Thereafter, a tall upper ridge is progged to slide east across the Mississippi Valley and into the Appalachians where it will flatten late week into the weekend. This will support rising heights and warming temperatures with afternoon highs climbing back into the upper 80s to low 90s. At the same time, a deep western trough digs across the Great Basin through the weekend with broad downstream southwest flow draped across much of the Great Plains. Eventually, this may support some degree of moisture return back into the Southern Appalachians while embedded shortwave perturbations lift out of the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. The majority of any QPF response remains displaced off to our west and north, but isolated to widely scattered convection cannot be completely ruled out late in the period.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
132 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes to the forecast with this forecast package.
Updated the 06z aviation forecast.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A cold front will bring spotty showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, this afternoon and evening. Warm and dry weather returns late week into the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: A cold front will bring spotty showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, this afternoon and evening. Warm and dry weather returns late week into the weekend.
Early morning water vapor imagery depicts a positively tilted trough sliding across the Midwest towards the Ohio Valley while surface analysis places an attendant cold front Chicago to central Missouri. Guidance is in good agreement that the trough will take on a neutral tilt as it swings across the Appalachians today with the cold front approaching the mountains this afternoon. The frontal boundary will push across the area late this afternoon through the evening hours. Forcing for ascent will be modest, but the antecedent airmass is rather dry with PWATs 1" or less. This will leave the system at least somewhat moisture starved with the trough orientation not supportive of sufficient moisture return prior to the arrival of the front. Nonetheless, a band of moisture pooling ahead of the boundary should support the development of a fast moving band of showers with a couple embedded thunderstorms over east Tennessee. This line will enter the mountains mid to late afternoon and across the foothills and Piedmont this evening. Coverage of showers, especially east of the mountains, may be rather limited with widely scattered showers. The front will also be moving fast enough that locations that do see rainfall aren`t expected to see any appreciable values that would ease drought conditions, unfortunately.
Thereafter, a tall upper ridge is progged to slide east across the Mississippi Valley and into the Appalachians where it will flatten late week into the weekend. This will support rising heights and warming temperatures with afternoon highs climbing back into the upper 80s to low 90s. At the same time, a deep western trough digs across the Great Basin through the weekend with broad downstream southwest flow draped across much of the Great Plains. Eventually, this may support some degree of moisture return back into the Southern Appalachians while embedded shortwave perturbations lift out of the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. The majority of any QPF response remains displaced off to our west and north, but isolated to widely scattered convection cannot be completely ruled out late in the period.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
627 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Rain chances have trended slightly lower for Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Dry conditions continue today followed by another weak cold front that may bring a few more showers and thunderstorms to the western Carolinas Wednesday. Dry and briefly cooler Thursday and Thursday night, followed by a warming trend Friday through the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Dry conditions continue today followed by another weak cold front that may bring a few more showers and thunderstorms to the western Carolinas Wednesday. Dry and briefly cooler Thursday and Thursday night, followed by a warming trend Friday through the weekend.
A weak southern stream shortwave slides along the Gulf Coast today with any associated precipitation displaced well south of the area in the vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary across far southern Georgia into Florida. The Southern Appalachians will remain within a cool and dry pattern following yesterdays frontal passage. By Wednesday, a northern stream trough drops out of the Midwest/Great Lakes and across the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. Modest height falls will overspread the region as the trough attempts to transition from a positive tilt to neutral. Despite sufficient forcing for ascent, this system will be somewhat moisture starved as the poor trough orientation will not be as conducive for moisture return from the Gulf or Atlantic ahead of the associated frontal boundary. Nonetheless, a narrow band of moisture pooling should reside ahead of the boundary with a band of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two approaching the mountains Wednesday afternoon. The front slides east through the evening, but coverage of showers and storms east of the mountains remains uncertain with only isolated to widely scattered precipitation expected at this time. Unfortunately, any rain that falls with this fast moving system will be negligible and won`t help to noticeably alleviate ongoing drought conditions.
Thereafter, upper ridging builds across the region and gradually flattens by the weekend with rising heights. This will foster a return to warm and dry conditions with temperatures climbing back into the upper 80s to low 90s by the weekend. A deep western trough is progged to dig over the Great Basin through the weekend with broad southwest flow draped across much of the Great Plains. Several embedded perturbations within this flow regime may send a couple rounds of convection across the Tennessee Valley and towards the area, but confidence in this is fairly low at this time range.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
627 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Rain chances have trended slightly lower for Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Dry conditions continue today followed by another weak cold front that may bring a few more showers and thunderstorms to the western Carolinas Wednesday. Dry and briefly cooler Thursday and Thursday night, followed by a warming trend Friday through the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Dry conditions continue today followed by another weak cold front that may bring a few more showers and thunderstorms to the western Carolinas Wednesday. Dry and briefly cooler Thursday and Thursday night, followed by a warming trend Friday through the weekend.
A weak southern stream shortwave slides along the Gulf Coast today with any associated precipitation displaced well south of the area in the vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary across far southern Georgia into Florida. The Southern Appalachians will remain within a cool and dry pattern following yesterdays frontal passage. By Wednesday, a northern stream trough drops out of the Midwest/Great Lakes and across the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. Modest height falls will overspread the region as the trough attempts to transition from a positive tilt to neutral. Despite sufficient forcing for ascent, this system will be somewhat moisture starved as the poor trough orientation will not be as conducive for moisture return from the Gulf or Atlantic ahead of the associated frontal boundary. Nonetheless, a narrow band of moisture pooling should reside ahead of the boundary with a band of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two approaching the mountains Wednesday afternoon. The front slides east through the evening, but coverage of showers and storms east of the mountains remains uncertain with only isolated to widely scattered precipitation expected at this time. Unfortunately, any rain that falls with this fast moving system will be negligible and won`t help to noticeably alleviate ongoing drought conditions.
Thereafter, upper ridging builds across the region and gradually flattens by the weekend with rising heights. This will foster a return to warm and dry conditions with temperatures climbing back into the upper 80s to low 90s by the weekend. A deep western trough is progged to dig over the Great Basin through the weekend with broad southwest flow draped across much of the Great Plains. Several embedded perturbations within this flow regime may send a couple rounds of convection across the Tennessee Valley and towards the area, but confidence in this is fairly low at this time range.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
627 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Rain chances have trended slightly lower for Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Dry conditions continue today followed by another weak cold front that may bring a few more showers and thunderstorms to the western Carolinas Wednesday. Dry and briefly cooler Thursday and Thursday night, followed by a warming trend Friday through the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Dry conditions continue today followed by another weak cold front that may bring a few more showers and thunderstorms to the western Carolinas Wednesday. Dry and briefly cooler Thursday and Thursday night, followed by a warming trend Friday through the weekend.
A weak southern stream shortwave slides along the Gulf Coast today with any associated precipitation displaced well south of the area in the vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary across far southern Georgia into Florida. The Southern Appalachians will remain within a cool and dry pattern following yesterdays frontal passage. By Wednesday, a northern stream trough drops out of the Midwest/Great Lakes and across the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. Modest height falls will overspread the region as the trough attempts to transition from a positive tilt to neutral. Despite sufficient forcing for ascent, this system will be somewhat moisture starved as the poor trough orientation will not be as conducive for moisture return from the Gulf or Atlantic ahead of the associated frontal boundary. Nonetheless, a narrow band of moisture pooling should reside ahead of the boundary with a band of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two approaching the mountains Wednesday afternoon. The front slides east through the evening, but coverage of showers and storms east of the mountains remains uncertain with only isolated to widely scattered precipitation expected at this time. Unfortunately, any rain that falls with this fast moving system will be negligible and won`t help to noticeably alleviate ongoing drought conditions.
Thereafter, upper ridging builds across the region and gradually flattens by the weekend with rising heights. This will foster a return to warm and dry conditions with temperatures climbing back into the upper 80s to low 90s by the weekend. A deep western trough is progged to dig over the Great Basin through the weekend with broad southwest flow draped across much of the Great Plains. Several embedded perturbations within this flow regime may send a couple rounds of convection across the Tennessee Valley and towards the area, but confidence in this is fairly low at this time range.
