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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
255 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Shifted focus of the discussion toward the Sunday to Wednesday period when periodic chances for severe weather and heavy rainfall may develop.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Potential for at least localized excessive rainfall continues today near a stalled front. On Sunday the pattern changes such that the heavy rain potential decreases, but the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms increases and could be a daily concern through Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Potential for at least localized excessive rainfall continues today near a stalled front. On Sunday the pattern changes such that the heavy rain potential decreases, but the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms increases and could be a daily concern through Wednesday.
We are still feeling the effects of a wedgelike pattern, in which a moist frontal boundary is basically stalled south of the CWA. Low stratus remains on the cool side of the front, with patchy drizzle and occasional light showers evident from surface obs, even though radar returns are weak. Water-vapor imagery shows a sharp shortwave axis just south of the Ohio River as of early Sat morning; weak vort ripples are evident ahead of it across the southern Apps and vicinity. While flow over the frontal boundary appears quite weak, there is enough upglide and slight elevated instability of a few hundred J/kg, to explain the few showers which have formed at times over or west of the CWA. CAMs have not been terribly consistent so confidence is limited in them, but generally have shown an uptick in QPF response in the predawn hours, so we retain decent PoPs early this morning--mainly just showers with only an outside chance of a thunderstorm.
The main shortwave axis will swing southeastward today, and is on track to pass the NW half of our CWA prior to peak heating. That should turn midlevel flow more NW`ly and promote some drying/scattering of the cloud deck, though it appears likely to take longer than originally anticipated. The delayed clearing and warming, plus the less than ideal timing of the better forcing associated with the wave, suggests the expected return of diurnally driven showers/storms into question, in particular because SBCAPE is lower than is typical for this time of year. We retain no better than about 30% PoPs this afternoon, for the idea of cells firing over the Escarpment and propagating east into the Piedmont. PWATs begin a gradual downward trend with the drying aloft, but remain higher than normal and any cells that form will have potential for torrential rainfall rates. The threat of flash flooding is arguably even lower than Friday with the steering flow less perpendicular to the front. The drying trend will continue tonight into early Sunday, as the front pushes farther south…
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
255 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Shifted focus of the discussion toward the Sunday to Wednesday period when periodic chances for severe weather and heavy rainfall may develop.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Potential for at least localized excessive rainfall continues today near a stalled front. On Sunday the pattern changes such that the heavy rain potential decreases, but the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms increases and could be a daily concern through Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Potential for at least localized excessive rainfall continues today near a stalled front. On Sunday the pattern changes such that the heavy rain potential decreases, but the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms increases and could be a daily concern through Wednesday.
We are still feeling the effects of a wedgelike pattern, in which a moist frontal boundary is basically stalled south of the CWA. Low stratus remains on the cool side of the front, with patchy drizzle and occasional light showers evident from surface obs, even though radar returns are weak. Water-vapor imagery shows a sharp shortwave axis just south of the Ohio River as of early Sat morning; weak vort ripples are evident ahead of it across the southern Apps and vicinity. While flow over the frontal boundary appears quite weak, there is enough upglide and slight elevated instability of a few hundred J/kg, to explain the few showers which have formed at times over or west of the CWA. CAMs have not been terribly consistent so confidence is limited in them, but generally have shown an uptick in QPF response in the predawn hours, so we retain decent PoPs early this morning--mainly just showers with only an outside chance of a thunderstorm.
The main shortwave axis will swing southeastward today, and is on track to pass the NW half of our CWA prior to peak heating. That should turn midlevel flow more NW`ly and promote some drying/scattering of the cloud deck, though it appears likely to take longer than originally anticipated. The delayed clearing and warming, plus the less than ideal timing of the better forcing associated with the wave, suggests the expected return of diurnally driven showers/storms into question, in particular because SBCAPE is lower than is typical for this time of year. We retain no better than about 30% PoPs this afternoon, for the idea of cells firing over the Escarpment and propagating east into the Piedmont. PWATs begin a gradual downward trend with the drying aloft, but remain higher than normal and any cells that form will have potential for torrential rainfall rates. The threat of flash flooding is arguably even lower than Friday with the steering flow less perpendicular to the front. The drying trend will continue tonight into early Sunday, as the front pushes farther south…
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
255 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Shifted focus of the discussion toward the Sunday to Wednesday period when periodic chances for severe weather and heavy rainfall may develop.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Potential for at least localized excessive rainfall continues today near a stalled front. On Sunday the pattern changes such that the heavy rain potential decreases, but the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms increases and could be a daily concern through Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Potential for at least localized excessive rainfall continues today near a stalled front. On Sunday the pattern changes such that the heavy rain potential decreases, but the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms increases and could be a daily concern through Wednesday.
We are still feeling the effects of a wedgelike pattern, in which a moist frontal boundary is basically stalled south of the CWA. Low stratus remains on the cool side of the front, with patchy drizzle and occasional light showers evident from surface obs, even though radar returns are weak. Water-vapor imagery shows a sharp shortwave axis just south of the Ohio River as of early Sat morning; weak vort ripples are evident ahead of it across the southern Apps and vicinity. While flow over the frontal boundary appears quite weak, there is enough upglide and slight elevated instability of a few hundred J/kg, to explain the few showers which have formed at times over or west of the CWA. CAMs have not been terribly consistent so confidence is limited in them, but generally have shown an uptick in QPF response in the predawn hours, so we retain decent PoPs early this morning--mainly just showers with only an outside chance of a thunderstorm.
The main shortwave axis will swing southeastward today, and is on track to pass the NW half of our CWA prior to peak heating. That should turn midlevel flow more NW`ly and promote some drying/scattering of the cloud deck, though it appears likely to take longer than originally anticipated. The delayed clearing and warming, plus the less than ideal timing of the better forcing associated with the wave, suggests the expected return of diurnally driven showers/storms into question, in particular because SBCAPE is lower than is typical for this time of year. We retain no better than about 30% PoPs this afternoon, for the idea of cells firing over the Escarpment and propagating east into the Piedmont. PWATs begin a gradual downward trend with the drying aloft, but remain higher than normal and any cells that form will have potential for torrential rainfall rates. The threat of flash flooding is arguably even lower than Friday with the steering flow less perpendicular to the front. The drying trend will continue tonight into early Sunday, as the front pushes farther south…
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#NWS #flood #nwsflashflood #FlashFloodWarning Flash Flood Warning for Beaufort, SC; Colleton, SC; Hampton, SC; Jasper, SC #SCwx
At 931 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated only patches of light rain
falling across the warning area. As much as 3 to 5 inches of rain
have fallen across portions of southern Hampton County this evening,
with the highest amounts occurring along the Yemassee Highway
corridor, including Camp Branch, Cummings, Fechtig and Early Branch.
While additional flash flooding is not expected through 1030 PM,
flooding is likely ongoing in some areas with flooded yards and
possibly some flooded roadways.HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low-lying areas.Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Yemassee, Varnville, Early Branch, Cummings, McPhersonville, Grays,
Almeda Intersection, Pocotaligo, Gillisonville and Coosawhatchie.This includes I-95 in South Carolina between mile markers 28 and 49.
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#NWS #flood #nwsflashflood #FlashFloodWarning Flash Flood Warning for Beaufort, SC; Colleton, SC; Hampton, SC; Jasper, SC #SCwx
At 825 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated showers and thunderstorms
gradually diminishing across the warned area. As much as 3 to 5
inches of rain have fallen across portions of southern Hampton County
since 6 PM, with the highest amounts occurring along the Yemassee
Highway corridor, including Camp Branch, Cummings, Fechtig and Early
Branch. Flash flooding is likely ongoing in some areas this evening.HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low-lying areas.Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Yemassee, Varnville, Early Branch, Cummings, McPhersonville, Grays,
Almeda Intersection, Pocotaligo, Gillisonville and Coosawhatchie.This includes I-95 in South Carolina between mile markers 28 and 49.
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RT by @NWSAtlanta: RT by @NWSAtlanta: #WPC_MD 0841 affecting Northern/Central AL...Northern/Central GA...Western/ Southern SC...Far Southern NC..., #ncwx #scwx #gawx #tnwx #alwx, https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0841&yr=2026 https://x.com/NWSWPC/status/2080731011982209237
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
306 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Similar thinking for isolated excessive rainfall potential today, diminishing Saturday.
Revised details about possible convective complexes making a run at the area Monday or Tuesday nights.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Potential for at least localized excessive rainfall continues through Saturday. 2. A return to typical mid-summer weather begins Sunday and continues through at least Thursday, with hot temperatures and isolated diurnal convection expected.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Potential for at least localized excessive rainfall continues through Saturday.
A stationary front will remain south of the forecast area through Saturday, with at least weak southerly upglide continuing atop it. This front is situated near the base of a broad trough extending across the northeastern quadrant of the CONUS. PWATs in the frontal zone will remain at or above 2 inches through today along with at least a few hundred joules of MUCAPE for parcels elevated above the frontal inversion. SW`ly LLJ may fire a few showers/storms over the front this morning especially over the Lakelands and upper Savannah Valley. During the daytime hours, however, our area will not have the degree of instability today that was seen on Thursday owing to extensive stratus, and for at least part of the day we will be in a relative lull in upper forcing between embedded shortwaves. Hence convective coverage is expected to be a bit less than Thursday, with the heavy rain concern greatest in those areas nearest the front--in our southern CWA. CAM response is rather muted/noisy-looking during the day. However, steering flow aloft will remain westerly, quasi-parallel to the front, and this suggests any convection that does fire will be capable of exceptionally high rainfall rates. WPC maintains a Slight Risk over the southern half of the CWA. By late afternoon some more weak vort maxes will approach from the west and in turn some CAMs suggest convective development mainly during the evening. The excessive rain threat will be somewhat mitigated by the best coverage today appearing in our south which generally saw the least rain on Thursday. That is a reason why no Flood Watch is in effect for today.
The aforementioned weak vort lobes promote a deepening of the upper trough such that the 500mb pattern is more amplified for Saturday. Some drying does occur aloft which will shift the band of frontal moisture still further south. Weak downslope flow in low levels may help scour out clouds particularly in the NW CWA and in turn convection should reflect a somewhat more diurnal trend.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
306 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Similar thinking for isolated excessive rainfall potential today, diminishing Saturday.
Revised details about possible convective complexes making a run at the area Monday or Tuesday nights.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Potential for at least localized excessive rainfall continues through Saturday. 2. A return to typical mid-summer weather begins Sunday and continues through at least Thursday, with hot temperatures and isolated diurnal convection expected.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Potential for at least localized excessive rainfall continues through Saturday.
A stationary front will remain south of the forecast area through Saturday, with at least weak southerly upglide continuing atop it. This front is situated near the base of a broad trough extending across the northeastern quadrant of the CONUS. PWATs in the frontal zone will remain at or above 2 inches through today along with at least a few hundred joules of MUCAPE for parcels elevated above the frontal inversion. SW`ly LLJ may fire a few showers/storms over the front this morning especially over the Lakelands and upper Savannah Valley. During the daytime hours, however, our area will not have the degree of instability today that was seen on Thursday owing to extensive stratus, and for at least part of the day we will be in a relative lull in upper forcing between embedded shortwaves. Hence convective coverage is expected to be a bit less than Thursday, with the heavy rain concern greatest in those areas nearest the front--in our southern CWA. CAM response is rather muted/noisy-looking during the day. However, steering flow aloft will remain westerly, quasi-parallel to the front, and this suggests any convection that does fire will be capable of exceptionally high rainfall rates. WPC maintains a Slight Risk over the southern half of the CWA. By late afternoon some more weak vort maxes will approach from the west and in turn some CAMs suggest convective development mainly during the evening. The excessive rain threat will be somewhat mitigated by the best coverage today appearing in our south which generally saw the least rain on Thursday. That is a reason why no Flood Watch is in effect for today.
The aforementioned weak vort lobes promote a deepening of the upper trough such that the 500mb pattern is more amplified for Saturday. Some drying does occur aloft which will shift the band of frontal moisture still further south. Weak downslope flow in low levels may help scour out clouds particularly in the NW CWA and in turn convection should reflect a somewhat more diurnal trend.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
306 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Similar thinking for isolated excessive rainfall potential today, diminishing Saturday.
Revised details about possible convective complexes making a run at the area Monday or Tuesday nights.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Potential for at least localized excessive rainfall continues through Saturday. 2. A return to typical mid-summer weather begins Sunday and continues through at least Thursday, with hot temperatures and isolated diurnal convection expected.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Potential for at least localized excessive rainfall continues through Saturday.
A stationary front will remain south of the forecast area through Saturday, with at least weak southerly upglide continuing atop it. This front is situated near the base of a broad trough extending across the northeastern quadrant of the CONUS. PWATs in the frontal zone will remain at or above 2 inches through today along with at least a few hundred joules of MUCAPE for parcels elevated above the frontal inversion. SW`ly LLJ may fire a few showers/storms over the front this morning especially over the Lakelands and upper Savannah Valley. During the daytime hours, however, our area will not have the degree of instability today that was seen on Thursday owing to extensive stratus, and for at least part of the day we will be in a relative lull in upper forcing between embedded shortwaves. Hence convective coverage is expected to be a bit less than Thursday, with the heavy rain concern greatest in those areas nearest the front--in our southern CWA. CAM response is rather muted/noisy-looking during the day. However, steering flow aloft will remain westerly, quasi-parallel to the front, and this suggests any convection that does fire will be capable of exceptionally high rainfall rates. WPC maintains a Slight Risk over the southern half of the CWA. By late afternoon some more weak vort maxes will approach from the west and in turn some CAMs suggest convective development mainly during the evening. The excessive rain threat will be somewhat mitigated by the best coverage today appearing in our south which generally saw the least rain on Thursday. That is a reason why no Flood Watch is in effect for today.
The aforementioned weak vort lobes promote a deepening of the upper trough such that the 500mb pattern is more amplified for Saturday. Some drying does occur aloft which will shift the band of frontal moisture still further south. Weak downslope flow in low levels may help scour out clouds particularly in the NW CWA and in turn convection should reflect a somewhat more diurnal trend.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
303 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
The severe storm threat continues today but chance is lower. Forecast heavy rainfall the threat for isolated flash flooding continues, but the best locations and timing remain uncertain.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Very active convective weather is expected through the end of the week, as a frontal boundary moves into the area and stalls. Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with an escalating risk of heavy rainfall and potentially flash flooding from tonight through at least Friday. 2. A return to typical late July weather is expected next week.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Very active convective weather is expected through the end of the week, as a frontal boundary moves into the area and stalls. Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with an escalating risk of heavy rainfall and potentially flash flooding from tonight through at least Friday.
A slow moving frontal zone will settle over the area today and stalling near the area on Thursday as a couple of short waves rotate through an upper trough developing over the East Coast. This will lead to increased forcing and an increase in bulk shear. Convection will be slower to start than usual, mainly late afternoon into the evening and storms will be slow to move south across the area. The air mass remains moist and unstable, but mid-level lapse rates will be meager. Still, the low-level lapse rates may increase enough with daytime heating for an isolated severe storm with damaging winds.
The bigger concern will end up being the potential for heavy rainfall as periods of thunderstorms cross the area along and near the stalled frontal boundary through Friday. PW values are forecast to surge to 2" (or more) over the area within deep SW flow, and forecast soundings depict very deep warm cloud depths of over 12 kft, along with notable instability lingering well past the typical diurnal cycle. With mean cloud-bearing winds of 20 kts or more expected, cell movement will be relatively fast. However, the mean flow will be oriented almost perfectly parallel to the boundary, creating the threat for training, highly efficient rainfall- producing cells. That said, uncertainty remains regarding the best location for training cells as the guidance continues to favor different locations. The resulting QPF also varies in amounts and locations. Given this uncertainty, will hold off on issuing a Flood Watch at this time. Prefer to wait for some consolidation in the guidance to target the main threat areas instead of issuing a forecast area-wide watch that remains in effect for days…
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
303 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
The severe storm threat continues today but chance is lower. Forecast heavy rainfall the threat for isolated flash flooding continues, but the best locations and timing remain uncertain.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Very active convective weather is expected through the end of the week, as a frontal boundary moves into the area and stalls. Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with an escalating risk of heavy rainfall and potentially flash flooding from tonight through at least Friday. 2. A return to typical late July weather is expected next week.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Very active convective weather is expected through the end of the week, as a frontal boundary moves into the area and stalls. Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with an escalating risk of heavy rainfall and potentially flash flooding from tonight through at least Friday.
A slow moving frontal zone will settle over the area today and stalling near the area on Thursday as a couple of short waves rotate through an upper trough developing over the East Coast. This will lead to increased forcing and an increase in bulk shear. Convection will be slower to start than usual, mainly late afternoon into the evening and storms will be slow to move south across the area. The air mass remains moist and unstable, but mid-level lapse rates will be meager. Still, the low-level lapse rates may increase enough with daytime heating for an isolated severe storm with damaging winds.
The bigger concern will end up being the potential for heavy rainfall as periods of thunderstorms cross the area along and near the stalled frontal boundary through Friday. PW values are forecast to surge to 2" (or more) over the area within deep SW flow, and forecast soundings depict very deep warm cloud depths of over 12 kft, along with notable instability lingering well past the typical diurnal cycle. With mean cloud-bearing winds of 20 kts or more expected, cell movement will be relatively fast. However, the mean flow will be oriented almost perfectly parallel to the boundary, creating the threat for training, highly efficient rainfall- producing cells. That said, uncertainty remains regarding the best location for training cells as the guidance continues to favor different locations. The resulting QPF also varies in amounts and locations. Given this uncertainty, will hold off on issuing a Flood Watch at this time. Prefer to wait for some consolidation in the guidance to target the main threat areas instead of issuing a forecast area-wide watch that remains in effect for days…
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
303 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
The severe storm threat continues today but chance is lower. Forecast heavy rainfall the threat for isolated flash flooding continues, but the best locations and timing remain uncertain.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Very active convective weather is expected through the end of the week, as a frontal boundary moves into the area and stalls. Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with an escalating risk of heavy rainfall and potentially flash flooding from tonight through at least Friday. 2. A return to typical late July weather is expected next week.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Very active convective weather is expected through the end of the week, as a frontal boundary moves into the area and stalls. Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with an escalating risk of heavy rainfall and potentially flash flooding from tonight through at least Friday.
A slow moving frontal zone will settle over the area today and stalling near the area on Thursday as a couple of short waves rotate through an upper trough developing over the East Coast. This will lead to increased forcing and an increase in bulk shear. Convection will be slower to start than usual, mainly late afternoon into the evening and storms will be slow to move south across the area. The air mass remains moist and unstable, but mid-level lapse rates will be meager. Still, the low-level lapse rates may increase enough with daytime heating for an isolated severe storm with damaging winds.
The bigger concern will end up being the potential for heavy rainfall as periods of thunderstorms cross the area along and near the stalled frontal boundary through Friday. PW values are forecast to surge to 2" (or more) over the area within deep SW flow, and forecast soundings depict very deep warm cloud depths of over 12 kft, along with notable instability lingering well past the typical diurnal cycle. With mean cloud-bearing winds of 20 kts or more expected, cell movement will be relatively fast. However, the mean flow will be oriented almost perfectly parallel to the boundary, creating the threat for training, highly efficient rainfall- producing cells. That said, uncertainty remains regarding the best location for training cells as the guidance continues to favor different locations. The resulting QPF also varies in amounts and locations. Given this uncertainty, will hold off on issuing a Flood Watch at this time. Prefer to wait for some consolidation in the guidance to target the main threat areas instead of issuing a forecast area-wide watch that remains in effect for days…
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
238 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Shower and thunderstorm chances continue to trend lower today across most of the forecast area. Chances continue to trend higher towards the end of the week and into the weekend.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Elevated heat index values continue today. Cooler temperatures later in the week should provide some relief from the heat. 2. Convection today limited to the NC mountains and foothills, but a few severe storms are possible. A weak cold front brings increased coverage and the potential for more severe weather on Wednesday. The front slowly moves south Thursday with elevated convective coverage but a lower severe weather chance.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Elevated heat index values continue today. Cooler temperatures later in the week should provide some relief from the heat.
High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s outside of the mountains today. Dewpoints should mix out enough to keep heat index values below 105 degrees for most locations. However, they will rise above 100 along and south of the I-85 corridor. Still, can`t rule out a few brief values of 105 in that area. With more clouds and increased convective chances Wednesday, high will be slightly below normal. Dewpoints remain elevated as they won`t mix out as much, but with the lower temps, heat index values will be below 100 for all but the lower Piedmont. All areas will finally see relief from the heat Thursday through Saturday as a cooler air mass builds in as a cold front moves south of the area. In fact, highs will be up to 10 degrees below normal. Until then, stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air-conditioned or shaded areas, and never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles. Heat and humidity return early next week with temps back around normal.
Key message 2: Convection today limited to the NC mountains and foothills, but a few severe storms are possible. A weak cold front brings increased coverage and the potential for more severe weather on Wednesday. The front slowly moves south Thursday with elevated convective coverage but a lower severe weather chance.
CAM guidance continues to shower lower convective coverage across the area today. Best chances will be over the NC mountains and foothills. A more capped atmosphere with high LFC`s remain south of there limiting the chance of convection. A few severe storms are possible with a very moist and unstable air mass with steep low level lapse rates. Isolated convection may linger there overnight as a weakening line of convection moves south from the OH Valley…
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
238 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Shower and thunderstorm chances continue to trend lower today across most of the forecast area. Chances continue to trend higher towards the end of the week and into the weekend.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Elevated heat index values continue today. Cooler temperatures later in the week should provide some relief from the heat. 2. Convection today limited to the NC mountains and foothills, but a few severe storms are possible. A weak cold front brings increased coverage and the potential for more severe weather on Wednesday. The front slowly moves south Thursday with elevated convective coverage but a lower severe weather chance.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Elevated heat index values continue today. Cooler temperatures later in the week should provide some relief from the heat.
High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s outside of the mountains today. Dewpoints should mix out enough to keep heat index values below 105 degrees for most locations. However, they will rise above 100 along and south of the I-85 corridor. Still, can`t rule out a few brief values of 105 in that area. With more clouds and increased convective chances Wednesday, high will be slightly below normal. Dewpoints remain elevated as they won`t mix out as much, but with the lower temps, heat index values will be below 100 for all but the lower Piedmont. All areas will finally see relief from the heat Thursday through Saturday as a cooler air mass builds in as a cold front moves south of the area. In fact, highs will be up to 10 degrees below normal. Until then, stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air-conditioned or shaded areas, and never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles. Heat and humidity return early next week with temps back around normal.
Key message 2: Convection today limited to the NC mountains and foothills, but a few severe storms are possible. A weak cold front brings increased coverage and the potential for more severe weather on Wednesday. The front slowly moves south Thursday with elevated convective coverage but a lower severe weather chance.
CAM guidance continues to shower lower convective coverage across the area today. Best chances will be over the NC mountains and foothills. A more capped atmosphere with high LFC`s remain south of there limiting the chance of convection. A few severe storms are possible with a very moist and unstable air mass with steep low level lapse rates. Isolated convection may linger there overnight as a weakening line of convection moves south from the OH Valley…
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
238 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Shower and thunderstorm chances continue to trend lower today across most of the forecast area. Chances continue to trend higher towards the end of the week and into the weekend.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Elevated heat index values continue today. Cooler temperatures later in the week should provide some relief from the heat. 2. Convection today limited to the NC mountains and foothills, but a few severe storms are possible. A weak cold front brings increased coverage and the potential for more severe weather on Wednesday. The front slowly moves south Thursday with elevated convective coverage but a lower severe weather chance.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Elevated heat index values continue today. Cooler temperatures later in the week should provide some relief from the heat.
High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s outside of the mountains today. Dewpoints should mix out enough to keep heat index values below 105 degrees for most locations. However, they will rise above 100 along and south of the I-85 corridor. Still, can`t rule out a few brief values of 105 in that area. With more clouds and increased convective chances Wednesday, high will be slightly below normal. Dewpoints remain elevated as they won`t mix out as much, but with the lower temps, heat index values will be below 100 for all but the lower Piedmont. All areas will finally see relief from the heat Thursday through Saturday as a cooler air mass builds in as a cold front moves south of the area. In fact, highs will be up to 10 degrees below normal. Until then, stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air-conditioned or shaded areas, and never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles. Heat and humidity return early next week with temps back around normal.
Key message 2: Convection today limited to the NC mountains and foothills, but a few severe storms are possible. A weak cold front brings increased coverage and the potential for more severe weather on Wednesday. The front slowly moves south Thursday with elevated convective coverage but a lower severe weather chance.
CAM guidance continues to shower lower convective coverage across the area today. Best chances will be over the NC mountains and foothills. A more capped atmosphere with high LFC`s remain south of there limiting the chance of convection. A few severe storms are possible with a very moist and unstable air mass with steep low level lapse rates. Isolated convection may linger there overnight as a weakening line of convection moves south from the OH Valley…
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
243 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Better convective chances over North Carolina today. Hot and humid but heat index values not quite as high as previous days.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Elevated heat index values continue through Wednesday. Cooler temperatures later in the week should provide some relief from the heat. 2. Another round of scattered convection with a few severe storms possible today. Less convective coverage is anticipated on Tuesday, but a few severe storms remain possible. A weak cold front brings increased coverage and the potential for more severe weather on Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Elevated heat index values continue through Wednesday. Cooler temperatures later in the week should provide some relief from the heat.
Highs remain nearly steady in the low to mid 90s outside of the mountains today and Tuesday. Dewpoints should mix out enough to keep heat index values below 105 for most locations. That said, can`t rule out a spotty brief 105 value along and south of the I-85 corridor either day. Temps do fall a few degrees Wednesday but dewpoints remain elevated. This keeps elevated heat index values along and south of the I-85 corridor. Again, most locations remain below 105 but a spotty brief 105 is possible. An airmass change takes place behind a cold front for Thursday and Friday. Highs actually end up below normal, a welcome break from the recent heat and humidity. Until then, stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air- conditioned or shaded areas, and never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles.
Key message 2: Another round of scattered convection with a few severe storms possible today. Less convective coverage is anticipated on Tuesday, but a few severe storms remain possible. A weak cold front brings increased coverage and the potential for more severe weather on Wednesday…
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
243 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Better convective chances over North Carolina today. Hot and humid but heat index values not quite as high as previous days.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Elevated heat index values continue through Wednesday. Cooler temperatures later in the week should provide some relief from the heat. 2. Another round of scattered convection with a few severe storms possible today. Less convective coverage is anticipated on Tuesday, but a few severe storms remain possible. A weak cold front brings increased coverage and the potential for more severe weather on Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Elevated heat index values continue through Wednesday. Cooler temperatures later in the week should provide some relief from the heat.
Highs remain nearly steady in the low to mid 90s outside of the mountains today and Tuesday. Dewpoints should mix out enough to keep heat index values below 105 for most locations. That said, can`t rule out a spotty brief 105 value along and south of the I-85 corridor either day. Temps do fall a few degrees Wednesday but dewpoints remain elevated. This keeps elevated heat index values along and south of the I-85 corridor. Again, most locations remain below 105 but a spotty brief 105 is possible. An airmass change takes place behind a cold front for Thursday and Friday. Highs actually end up below normal, a welcome break from the recent heat and humidity. Until then, stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air- conditioned or shaded areas, and never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles.
Key message 2: Another round of scattered convection with a few severe storms possible today. Less convective coverage is anticipated on Tuesday, but a few severe storms remain possible. A weak cold front brings increased coverage and the potential for more severe weather on Wednesday…
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
243 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026WHAT HAS CHANGED
Better convective chances over North Carolina today. Hot and humid but heat index values not quite as high as previous days.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Elevated heat index values continue through Wednesday. Cooler temperatures later in the week should provide some relief from the heat. 2. Another round of scattered convection with a few severe storms possible today. Less convective coverage is anticipated on Tuesday, but a few severe storms remain possible. A weak cold front brings increased coverage and the potential for more severe weather on Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Elevated heat index values continue through Wednesday. Cooler temperatures later in the week should provide some relief from the heat.
Highs remain nearly steady in the low to mid 90s outside of the mountains today and Tuesday. Dewpoints should mix out enough to keep heat index values below 105 for most locations. That said, can`t rule out a spotty brief 105 value along and south of the I-85 corridor either day. Temps do fall a few degrees Wednesday but dewpoints remain elevated. This keeps elevated heat index values along and south of the I-85 corridor. Again, most locations remain below 105 but a spotty brief 105 is possible. An airmass change takes place behind a cold front for Thursday and Friday. Highs actually end up below normal, a welcome break from the recent heat and humidity. Until then, stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air- conditioned or shaded areas, and never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles.
Key message 2: Another round of scattered convection with a few severe storms possible today. Less convective coverage is anticipated on Tuesday, but a few severe storms remain possible. A weak cold front brings increased coverage and the potential for more severe weather on Wednesday…
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