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Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #mdwx, aggregated by home.social.

  1. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 10:51 AM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  2. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 10:51 AM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  3. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 10:51 AM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #vawx #mdwx #dcwx
  4. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 10:51 AM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  5. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    [Delayed Report] 2 SW Churchville [Augusta Co, VA] Trained Spotter reports Hail of quarter size (M1.00 inch) at 13 May, 8:00 PM EDT --

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  6. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    [Delayed Report] 2 SW Churchville [Augusta Co, VA] Trained Spotter reports Hail of quarter size (M1.00 inch) at 13 May, 8:00 PM EDT --

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  7. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    [Delayed Report] 2 SW Churchville [Augusta Co, VA] Trained Spotter reports Hail of quarter size (M1.00 inch) at 13 May, 8:00 PM EDT --

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #vawx #mdwx #dcwx
  8. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    [Delayed Report] 2 SW Churchville [Augusta Co, VA] Trained Spotter reports Hail of quarter size (M1.00 inch) at 13 May, 8:00 PM EDT --

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  9. BakersRelay @[email protected] ·

    #DCwx #MDwx #VAwx

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
    401 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

    MARINE

    A cold front is pushing through the waters early this morning, bringing northwest winds. Those winds are relatively light at the moment but should increase fairly rapidly after sunrise. Expect 20 to 25 kt gusts through the day, with a Small Craft Advisory going into effect for all waters at 6 AM. The advisory continues tonight and Friday, although some of the interior waters could have lighter winds for a time tonight. Winds may be slightly lighter Friday compared to Thursday. The advisory ends at 3 PM, although there is some uncertainty with how quickly winds decrease. Light winds are expected by Friday evening as high pressure builds south of the area.

    South to southwest winds develop Saturday. Gusts could occasionally approach advisory criteria, but appear to stay mostly below at this time.

    Winds stay below SCA criteria Sunday and Monday. Southwesterly winds gradually flow southeast by Monday night.

    TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

    Anomalies have peaked, with locations in action stage early this morning. Increasing northwest flow will bring lower water levels today.

    LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
    DC...None.
    MD...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for MDZ008.
    VA...None.
    WV...None.
    MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>543.

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  10. BakersRelay @[email protected] ·

    #DCwx #MDwx #VAwx

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
    401 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

    MARINE

    A cold front is pushing through the waters early this morning, bringing northwest winds. Those winds are relatively light at the moment but should increase fairly rapidly after sunrise. Expect 20 to 25 kt gusts through the day, with a Small Craft Advisory going into effect for all waters at 6 AM. The advisory continues tonight and Friday, although some of the interior waters could have lighter winds for a time tonight. Winds may be slightly lighter Friday compared to Thursday. The advisory ends at 3 PM, although there is some uncertainty with how quickly winds decrease. Light winds are expected by Friday evening as high pressure builds south of the area.

    South to southwest winds develop Saturday. Gusts could occasionally approach advisory criteria, but appear to stay mostly below at this time.

    Winds stay below SCA criteria Sunday and Monday. Southwesterly winds gradually flow southeast by Monday night.

    TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

    Anomalies have peaked, with locations in action stage early this morning. Increasing northwest flow will bring lower water levels today.

    LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
    DC...None.
    MD...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for MDZ008.
    VA...None.
    WV...None.
    MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>543.

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  11. BakersRelay @[email protected] ·

    #DCwx #MDwx #VAwx

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
    401 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

    MARINE

    A cold front is pushing through the waters early this morning, bringing northwest winds. Those winds are relatively light at the moment but should increase fairly rapidly after sunrise. Expect 20 to 25 kt gusts through the day, with a Small Craft Advisory going into effect for all waters at 6 AM. The advisory continues tonight and Friday, although some of the interior waters could have lighter winds for a time tonight. Winds may be slightly lighter Friday compared to Thursday. The advisory ends at 3 PM, although there is some uncertainty with how quickly winds decrease. Light winds are expected by Friday evening as high pressure builds south of the area.

    South to southwest winds develop Saturday. Gusts could occasionally approach advisory criteria, but appear to stay mostly below at this time.

    Winds stay below SCA criteria Sunday and Monday. Southwesterly winds gradually flow southeast by Monday night.

    TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

    Anomalies have peaked, with locations in action stage early this morning. Increasing northwest flow will bring lower water levels today.

    LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
    DC...None.
    MD...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for MDZ008.
    VA...None.
    WV...None.
    MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>543.

    #vawx #mdwx #dcwx
  12. BakersRelay @[email protected] ·

    #DCwx #MDwx #VAwx

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
    401 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

    WHAT HAS CHANGED

    Small Craft Advisories issued for today through Friday. Patchy fog this morning will likely persist until winds pick up closer to sunrise. Some showers may linger near the Chesapeake Bay past sunrise. Added a mention of sprinkles this afternoon for northern areas.

    KEY MESSAGES

    1) Below normal temperatures are expected through Friday.

    2) Above average temperatures are expected beginning this weekend along with daily shower and thunderstorm chances through the middle of next week.

    DISCUSSION

    KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures are expected through Friday.

    A closed upper low is located north of Lake Ontario this morning while a notable vort max is swinging into the upper Ohio Valley. It appears the surface cold front has pushed through all but southern Maryland. However, the lack of immediate pressure rises (thus wind) and dry advection is resulting in patchy fog where there are cloud breaks. Locally dense fog is possible, but should be relatively brief. Toward sunrise, northwest winds should start increasing which will help clear out the fog. A few showers are also trailing the front. As the vort max approaches this morning, some guidance indicates additional showers may form along/east of I-95 through mid morning.

    The closed low will drift southeastward across the northern Mid Atlantic today, causing surface low pressure to redevelop near New England. The primary effects will be broken to overcast stratocumulus and much cooler temperatures (lower elevations ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s). Upslope rain showers will continue in the northwest flow through the day. Some wet snow is even possible through midday above 4000 feet as 850 mb temperatures drop near or just below 0C. While measurable rain is unlikely east of the Alleghenies, did add a mention of scattered sprinkles to northern areas as there may be enough shallow instability to produce rain drops. This shows up in CAM reflectivity forecasts as well. Northwest winds will also gust 20 to 30 mph through the day. Low temperatures will drop back into the 40s to near 50 tonight, with 30s possible in the higher elevations. There should be enough lingering wind to preclude frost concerns, but it could be close in some of the elevated sheltered valleys.

    The upper low will push offshore on Friday, which will lead to warmer temperatures. Even so, readings will likely fall a few degrees short of normal. While there should be more breaks of sun compared to Thursday, mid and high level clouds may increase in the afternoon. Northwesterly winds will still be a bit gusty, but should start diminishing during the afternoon as surface high pressure builds south of the area.

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  13. BakersRelay @[email protected] ·

    #DCwx #MDwx #VAwx

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
    401 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

    WHAT HAS CHANGED

    Small Craft Advisories issued for today through Friday. Patchy fog this morning will likely persist until winds pick up closer to sunrise. Some showers may linger near the Chesapeake Bay past sunrise. Added a mention of sprinkles this afternoon for northern areas.

    KEY MESSAGES

    1) Below normal temperatures are expected through Friday.

    2) Above average temperatures are expected beginning this weekend along with daily shower and thunderstorm chances through the middle of next week.

    DISCUSSION

    KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures are expected through Friday.

    A closed upper low is located north of Lake Ontario this morning while a notable vort max is swinging into the upper Ohio Valley. It appears the surface cold front has pushed through all but southern Maryland. However, the lack of immediate pressure rises (thus wind) and dry advection is resulting in patchy fog where there are cloud breaks. Locally dense fog is possible, but should be relatively brief. Toward sunrise, northwest winds should start increasing which will help clear out the fog. A few showers are also trailing the front. As the vort max approaches this morning, some guidance indicates additional showers may form along/east of I-95 through mid morning.

    The closed low will drift southeastward across the northern Mid Atlantic today, causing surface low pressure to redevelop near New England. The primary effects will be broken to overcast stratocumulus and much cooler temperatures (lower elevations ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s). Upslope rain showers will continue in the northwest flow through the day. Some wet snow is even possible through midday above 4000 feet as 850 mb temperatures drop near or just below 0C. While measurable rain is unlikely east of the Alleghenies, did add a mention of scattered sprinkles to northern areas as there may be enough shallow instability to produce rain drops. This shows up in CAM reflectivity forecasts as well. Northwest winds will also gust 20 to 30 mph through the day. Low temperatures will drop back into the 40s to near 50 tonight, with 30s possible in the higher elevations. There should be enough lingering wind to preclude frost concerns, but it could be close in some of the elevated sheltered valleys.

    The upper low will push offshore on Friday, which will lead to warmer temperatures. Even so, readings will likely fall a few degrees short of normal. While there should be more breaks of sun compared to Thursday, mid and high level clouds may increase in the afternoon. Northwesterly winds will still be a bit gusty, but should start diminishing during the afternoon as surface high pressure builds south of the area.

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  14. BakersRelay @[email protected] ·

    #DCwx #MDwx #VAwx

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
    401 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

    WHAT HAS CHANGED

    Small Craft Advisories issued for today through Friday. Patchy fog this morning will likely persist until winds pick up closer to sunrise. Some showers may linger near the Chesapeake Bay past sunrise. Added a mention of sprinkles this afternoon for northern areas.

    KEY MESSAGES

    1) Below normal temperatures are expected through Friday.

    2) Above average temperatures are expected beginning this weekend along with daily shower and thunderstorm chances through the middle of next week.

    DISCUSSION

    KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures are expected through Friday.

    A closed upper low is located north of Lake Ontario this morning while a notable vort max is swinging into the upper Ohio Valley. It appears the surface cold front has pushed through all but southern Maryland. However, the lack of immediate pressure rises (thus wind) and dry advection is resulting in patchy fog where there are cloud breaks. Locally dense fog is possible, but should be relatively brief. Toward sunrise, northwest winds should start increasing which will help clear out the fog. A few showers are also trailing the front. As the vort max approaches this morning, some guidance indicates additional showers may form along/east of I-95 through mid morning.

    The closed low will drift southeastward across the northern Mid Atlantic today, causing surface low pressure to redevelop near New England. The primary effects will be broken to overcast stratocumulus and much cooler temperatures (lower elevations ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s). Upslope rain showers will continue in the northwest flow through the day. Some wet snow is even possible through midday above 4000 feet as 850 mb temperatures drop near or just below 0C. While measurable rain is unlikely east of the Alleghenies, did add a mention of scattered sprinkles to northern areas as there may be enough shallow instability to produce rain drops. This shows up in CAM reflectivity forecasts as well. Northwest winds will also gust 20 to 30 mph through the day. Low temperatures will drop back into the 40s to near 50 tonight, with 30s possible in the higher elevations. There should be enough lingering wind to preclude frost concerns, but it could be close in some of the elevated sheltered valleys.

    The upper low will push offshore on Friday, which will lead to warmer temperatures. Even so, readings will likely fall a few degrees short of normal. While there should be more breaks of sun compared to Thursday, mid and high level clouds may increase in the afternoon. Northwesterly winds will still be a bit gusty, but should start diminishing during the afternoon as surface high pressure builds south of the area.

    #vawx #mdwx #dcwx
  15. BakersRelay @[email protected] ·

    #VAwx #NCwx #MDwx

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    National Weather Service Wakefield VA
    343 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

    MARINE

    As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

    Key Messages:

    - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the bay and Tidal rivers starting this morning and lasting through Tomorrow AM.

    - Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week with primarily southerly winds.

    Early morning weather analysis shows showers moving over the coastal waters ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front is still to the west located over the Blue Ridge mountains. The pressure gradient ahead of the front remains weak and with the showers the winds remain light and variable. Waves are around 1-2ft across the bay with 2ft primarily across the mouth and southern bay and 3-4ft across the ocean.

    Later this morning, the cold front will push through the waters shifting the winds to the NW. With cooler and drier moving over the waters winds will increase especially with the initial surge of the front. Winds will be between 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the bay. While across the ocean winds will will be around 15 kt with gusts at or just slightly above 20kt. With the initial surge of the front Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Tidal rivers and bay. The bay goes into effect at 8am and the rivers at 11am. After the first initial surge, winds will decrease in the mid- afternoon and remain just below SCA criteria, but will remain out of the NW. However, the SCA will remain in effect as model guidance hints on a second surge of drier air in the early evening hours causing to winds once again increase around 15 kt with gusts at or slightly above 20kt across all waters. Seas during this time will increase to 2-3ft across the bay and 3-4ft across the ocean near shore and 5-7ft across the 20-60nm zones. Winds will start to decrease Friday afternoon and the SCA will be able to expire as high pressure begins to move overhead. Then by the weekend high pressure moves offshore and winds will remain Sub-SCA and out of the SW.

    AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
    MD...None.
    NC...None.
    VA...None.
    MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
    Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
    Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
    Friday for ANZ635>637-639.

    #vawx #ncwx #mdwx
  16. BakersRelay @[email protected] ·

    #VAwx #NCwx #MDwx

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    National Weather Service Wakefield VA
    343 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

    MARINE

    As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

    Key Messages:

    - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the bay and Tidal rivers starting this morning and lasting through Tomorrow AM.

    - Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week with primarily southerly winds.

    Early morning weather analysis shows showers moving over the coastal waters ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front is still to the west located over the Blue Ridge mountains. The pressure gradient ahead of the front remains weak and with the showers the winds remain light and variable. Waves are around 1-2ft across the bay with 2ft primarily across the mouth and southern bay and 3-4ft across the ocean.

    Later this morning, the cold front will push through the waters shifting the winds to the NW. With cooler and drier moving over the waters winds will increase especially with the initial surge of the front. Winds will be between 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the bay. While across the ocean winds will will be around 15 kt with gusts at or just slightly above 20kt. With the initial surge of the front Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Tidal rivers and bay. The bay goes into effect at 8am and the rivers at 11am. After the first initial surge, winds will decrease in the mid- afternoon and remain just below SCA criteria, but will remain out of the NW. However, the SCA will remain in effect as model guidance hints on a second surge of drier air in the early evening hours causing to winds once again increase around 15 kt with gusts at or slightly above 20kt across all waters. Seas during this time will increase to 2-3ft across the bay and 3-4ft across the ocean near shore and 5-7ft across the 20-60nm zones. Winds will start to decrease Friday afternoon and the SCA will be able to expire as high pressure begins to move overhead. Then by the weekend high pressure moves offshore and winds will remain Sub-SCA and out of the SW.

    AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
    MD...None.
    NC...None.
    VA...None.
    MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
    Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
    Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
    Friday for ANZ635>637-639.

    #vawx #ncwx #mdwx
  17. BakersRelay @[email protected] ·

    #VAwx #NCwx #MDwx

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    National Weather Service Wakefield VA
    343 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

    MARINE

    As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

    Key Messages:

    - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the bay and Tidal rivers starting this morning and lasting through Tomorrow AM.

    - Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week with primarily southerly winds.

    Early morning weather analysis shows showers moving over the coastal waters ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front is still to the west located over the Blue Ridge mountains. The pressure gradient ahead of the front remains weak and with the showers the winds remain light and variable. Waves are around 1-2ft across the bay with 2ft primarily across the mouth and southern bay and 3-4ft across the ocean.

    Later this morning, the cold front will push through the waters shifting the winds to the NW. With cooler and drier moving over the waters winds will increase especially with the initial surge of the front. Winds will be between 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the bay. While across the ocean winds will will be around 15 kt with gusts at or just slightly above 20kt. With the initial surge of the front Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Tidal rivers and bay. The bay goes into effect at 8am and the rivers at 11am. After the first initial surge, winds will decrease in the mid- afternoon and remain just below SCA criteria, but will remain out of the NW. However, the SCA will remain in effect as model guidance hints on a second surge of drier air in the early evening hours causing to winds once again increase around 15 kt with gusts at or slightly above 20kt across all waters. Seas during this time will increase to 2-3ft across the bay and 3-4ft across the ocean near shore and 5-7ft across the 20-60nm zones. Winds will start to decrease Friday afternoon and the SCA will be able to expire as high pressure begins to move overhead. Then by the weekend high pressure moves offshore and winds will remain Sub-SCA and out of the SW.

    AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
    MD...None.
    NC...None.
    VA...None.
    MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
    Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
    Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
    Friday for ANZ635>637-639.

    #mdwx #ncwx #vawx
  18. BakersRelay @[email protected] ·

    #VAwx #NCwx #MDwx

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    National Weather Service Wakefield VA
    343 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

    WHAT HAS CHANGED

    - No significant forecast changes. Updated Discussions.

    - Marine: -Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay and Tidal rivers.

    KEY MESSAGES

    1) Scattered to numerous showers early this morning (east) as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, cool today with mainly dry conditions/isolated showers possible into the aftn.

    2) Significant warming trend heading into the weekend, lasting through the middle of next week.

    DISCUSSION

    As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

    KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered to numerous showers early this morning (east) as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, cool today with mainly dry conditions/isolated showers possible into the aftn.

    Early AM WX analysis indicates sfc low pressure centered across the St Lawrence Valley, with a trailing cold front currently pushing through the CWA. Along and ahead of the front, scattered to numerous showers are ongoing over VA/MD, but with a lower coverage to the south in NC. The bulk of the shower activity has ended farther west, but rather surprisingly, there was some locally "heavier" rainfall, with amounts of 0.50"+ observed at RIC/OFP and a decent swath of 0.25-0.50" for much of metro Richmond. While certainly no drought-buster, this was a solid over-performance of rain total compared to the anticipated lower amounts and is definitely welcome in the current drought. Farther to the SE, amounts have generally been minimal as expected, but there could be some brief heavier showers through around sunrise.

    Temperatures remain cool today, with N-NW flow and the cold pool aloft as the upper low becomes centered over the NE and mid-Atlantic region. Highs will will be about 5- 10 degrees below normal, generally in the upper 60s for most, with some lower 70s possible in the S/SW. After a mostly cloudy start, expect variable cloudiness through the day as any daytime heating from the strong May sun angle will likely lead to redeveloping CU. Would not be surprised to see a few sprinkles or isolated showers redevelop in the aftn. For now, the models still seem to focus this across the far SE where surface dew points are a little higher, but this still could occur as far back to the NW as metro RIC as well. Clearing out this evening, but some clouds are likely to persist over redevelop over the NE into Friday morning as the final shortwave dives SE through the region.

    #vawx #ncwx #mdwx
  19. BakersRelay @[email protected] ·

    #VAwx #NCwx #MDwx

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    National Weather Service Wakefield VA
    343 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

    WHAT HAS CHANGED

    - No significant forecast changes. Updated Discussions.

    - Marine: -Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay and Tidal rivers.

    KEY MESSAGES

    1) Scattered to numerous showers early this morning (east) as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, cool today with mainly dry conditions/isolated showers possible into the aftn.

    2) Significant warming trend heading into the weekend, lasting through the middle of next week.

    DISCUSSION

    As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

    KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered to numerous showers early this morning (east) as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, cool today with mainly dry conditions/isolated showers possible into the aftn.

    Early AM WX analysis indicates sfc low pressure centered across the St Lawrence Valley, with a trailing cold front currently pushing through the CWA. Along and ahead of the front, scattered to numerous showers are ongoing over VA/MD, but with a lower coverage to the south in NC. The bulk of the shower activity has ended farther west, but rather surprisingly, there was some locally "heavier" rainfall, with amounts of 0.50"+ observed at RIC/OFP and a decent swath of 0.25-0.50" for much of metro Richmond. While certainly no drought-buster, this was a solid over-performance of rain total compared to the anticipated lower amounts and is definitely welcome in the current drought. Farther to the SE, amounts have generally been minimal as expected, but there could be some brief heavier showers through around sunrise.

    Temperatures remain cool today, with N-NW flow and the cold pool aloft as the upper low becomes centered over the NE and mid-Atlantic region. Highs will will be about 5- 10 degrees below normal, generally in the upper 60s for most, with some lower 70s possible in the S/SW. After a mostly cloudy start, expect variable cloudiness through the day as any daytime heating from the strong May sun angle will likely lead to redeveloping CU. Would not be surprised to see a few sprinkles or isolated showers redevelop in the aftn. For now, the models still seem to focus this across the far SE where surface dew points are a little higher, but this still could occur as far back to the NW as metro RIC as well. Clearing out this evening, but some clouds are likely to persist over redevelop over the NE into Friday morning as the final shortwave dives SE through the region.

    #vawx #ncwx #mdwx
  20. BakersRelay @[email protected] ·

    #VAwx #NCwx #MDwx

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    National Weather Service Wakefield VA
    343 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

    WHAT HAS CHANGED

    - No significant forecast changes. Updated Discussions.

    - Marine: -Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay and Tidal rivers.

    KEY MESSAGES

    1) Scattered to numerous showers early this morning (east) as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, cool today with mainly dry conditions/isolated showers possible into the aftn.

    2) Significant warming trend heading into the weekend, lasting through the middle of next week.

    DISCUSSION

    As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

    KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered to numerous showers early this morning (east) as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, cool today with mainly dry conditions/isolated showers possible into the aftn.

    Early AM WX analysis indicates sfc low pressure centered across the St Lawrence Valley, with a trailing cold front currently pushing through the CWA. Along and ahead of the front, scattered to numerous showers are ongoing over VA/MD, but with a lower coverage to the south in NC. The bulk of the shower activity has ended farther west, but rather surprisingly, there was some locally "heavier" rainfall, with amounts of 0.50"+ observed at RIC/OFP and a decent swath of 0.25-0.50" for much of metro Richmond. While certainly no drought-buster, this was a solid over-performance of rain total compared to the anticipated lower amounts and is definitely welcome in the current drought. Farther to the SE, amounts have generally been minimal as expected, but there could be some brief heavier showers through around sunrise.

    Temperatures remain cool today, with N-NW flow and the cold pool aloft as the upper low becomes centered over the NE and mid-Atlantic region. Highs will will be about 5- 10 degrees below normal, generally in the upper 60s for most, with some lower 70s possible in the S/SW. After a mostly cloudy start, expect variable cloudiness through the day as any daytime heating from the strong May sun angle will likely lead to redeveloping CU. Would not be surprised to see a few sprinkles or isolated showers redevelop in the aftn. For now, the models still seem to focus this across the far SE where surface dew points are a little higher, but this still could occur as far back to the NW as metro RIC as well. Clearing out this evening, but some clouds are likely to persist over redevelop over the NE into Friday morning as the final shortwave dives SE through the region.

    #mdwx #ncwx #vawx
  21. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX issues Short-term Forecast (NOW) at May 14, 5:11 AM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  22. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX issues Short-term Forecast (NOW) at May 14, 5:11 AM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  23. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX issues Short-term Forecast (NOW) at May 14, 5:11 AM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #vawx #mdwx #dcwx
  24. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX issues Short-term Forecast (NOW) at May 14, 5:11 AM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  25. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 4:01 AM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  26. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 4:01 AM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  27. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 4:01 AM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #vawx #mdwx #dcwx
  28. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 4:01 AM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  29. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    HAGERSTOWN MD May 13 Climate Report: High: 70 Low: 51 Precip: 0.26" Snow: Missing

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  30. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    HAGERSTOWN MD May 13 Climate Report: High: 70 Low: 51 Precip: 0.26" Snow: Missing

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  31. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    HAGERSTOWN MD May 13 Climate Report: High: 70 Low: 51 Precip: 0.26" Snow: Missing

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #vawx #mdwx #dcwx
  32. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    HAGERSTOWN MD May 13 Climate Report: High: 70 Low: 51 Precip: 0.26" Snow: Missing

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  33. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 13, 9:30 PM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  34. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 13, 9:30 PM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  35. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 13, 9:30 PM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #vawx #mdwx #dcwx
  36. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 13, 9:30 PM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  37. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX continues Marine Warning [wind: >34 KTS, hail: <.75 IN] for Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD, Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD, Chester River to Queenstown MD, Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor [AN] till 9:30 PM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  38. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX continues Marine Warning [wind: >34 KTS, hail: <.75 IN] for Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD, Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD, Chester River to Queenstown MD, Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor [AN] till 9:30 PM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  39. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX continues Marine Warning [wind: >34 KTS, hail: <.75 IN] for Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD, Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD, Chester River to Queenstown MD, Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor [AN] till 9:30 PM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #vawx #mdwx #dcwx
  40. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX continues Marine Warning [wind: >34 KTS, hail: <.75 IN] for Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD, Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD, Chester River to Queenstown MD, Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor [AN] till 9:30 PM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  41. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX issues Short-term Forecast (NOW) at May 13, 9:03 PM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  42. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX issues Short-term Forecast (NOW) at May 13, 9:03 PM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  43. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX issues Short-term Forecast (NOW) at May 13, 9:03 PM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #vawx #mdwx #dcwx
  44. NWS Washington DC Bot @[email protected] ·

    LWX issues Short-term Forecast (NOW) at May 13, 9:03 PM EDT

    mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.ph

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx

    #dcwx #mdwx #vawx
  45. DMV Weather :vaflag: :mdflag: @[email protected] ·

    The strongest storms are likely to stay north of #DC this evening, seeing a lot of lighting with some of these storms approaching Silver Spring, Ellicott City, and #Baltimore. #MDwx

    #dc #baltimore #mdwx
  46. Everett Will @[email protected] ·

    Severe Thunderstorm Warning to 5:45 pm - southwestern Allegany, central Garrett [MD], west central Mineral [WV] - forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/ww #MDwx #WVwx

    #mdwx #wvwx
  47. Everett Will @[email protected] ·

    Severe Thunderstorm Warning to 5:45 pm - southwestern Allegany, central Garrett [MD], west central Mineral [WV] - forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/ww #MDwx #WVwx

    #mdwx #wvwx
  48. Everett Will @[email protected] ·

    Severe Thunderstorm Warning to 5:45 pm - southwestern Allegany, central Garrett [MD], west central Mineral [WV] - forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/ww #MDwx #WVwx

    #wvwx #mdwx
  49. Everett Will @[email protected] ·

    Severe Thunderstorm Warning to 5:45 pm - southwestern Allegany, central Garrett [MD], west central Mineral [WV] - forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/ww #MDwx #WVwx

    #mdwx #wvwx
  50. BakersRelay @[email protected] ·

    #VAwx #NCwx #MDwx

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    National Weather Service Wakefield VA
    344 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

    MARINE

    As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

    Key Messages:

    - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the bay and Tidal rivers. The bay is in effect now and last through tonight, while the rivers go into effect this afternoon and last through this evening.

    - Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected for most of the day Thursday, with another chance of advisories overnight Thursday in the bay.

    - Benign marine conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week with primarily southerly winds.

    Early morning weather analysis shows high pressure off the coast of the Outer Banks. The pressure gradient from the high pressure and approaching cold front remains weak over the area at this moment and is only leading to winds out of the S around 10 to 15kt with some gusts approaching 20kt. Seas at this time are between 1-2ft across the bay and 2-3ft across the ocean. Small Craft Advisories are in effect now for the bay due to the marginal gusts up to 20kt. However, expect conditions to worsen later today.

    Through the day the pressure gradient is expected to tighten as the cold front approaches the area. This will lead to stronger SSE early this afternoon. Winds across the bay are expected to increase to 20- 25kt with gusts nearing 30kt. Across the tidal rivers winds increase to 10-15kt with gusts nearing 20kt. Small Craft Advisories go into effect for the tidal rivers early this afternoon. While across the ocean winds will increase to 15-20kt with gusts nearing 25kt north of Cape Charles. While south of the Capes winds are expected to be between 10-15kt with gusts nearing 20kt. With the winds increasing this afternoon waves will also increase to 3-4ft across the bay and 4 to potentially 5ft across the ocean. Will note the best chance for 5ft seas is north of Cape Charles. For this forecast update no SCA have been issued for the ocean waters north of Cape Charles. This is due to the the 25kt gusts and 5ft seas being marginal and for a short period of time. By early tonight winds will decrease as the cold front is pushing through the area and winds will shift to the NW. Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected tonight into Thursday. However, there could be a brief period of SCA conditions across the bay mid Thursday morning. Will note that these conditions will be brief and the Sub-SCA conditions will last through much of Thursday. The next best chance for solid SCA come Thursday night into Friday AM across the bay as a second push of drier air moves into the area. Winds could gusts between 20-25kt during this time period. After Friday AM, mainly benign marine conditions are forecasted for with winds primarily out of the S to SW.

    #vawx #ncwx #mdwx